That Long-Delayed Employment Report

We were sort of expecting an “upside surprise” to the unemployment report for September, which was delayed from several weeks ago by the charade of “Poor Me” going around Washington.  But better late than never, as they say, and so this morning we can finally catch up:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Household Survey Data The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September but has declined by 0.4 percentage point since June.

The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 522,000 since June. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (21.4 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (12.9 percent), and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change in September.

The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment- population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September. Over the year, the labor force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point, while the employment- population ratio has changed little.

This has apparently pleased the markets which a few minutes after the report showed they would about hold their own at the open.  The Labor Participation rate held steady at 63.2%.

On the other hand, the number of people working went up 133,000 which would be a good thing except that it’s made even better by a rare negative CES Birth/Death Model contribution.  We read that as underlying strength.

What’s more, even  the alternative measures of labor underutilization improved a tenth of a percent.

Next month ought to be an interesting read.  As we told Peoplenomics subscribers, the actual amount of “stuff” going through west coast ports is up about 3% and what they might lead a wild optimists to think is that things are improving.

Bu8t not necessarily in the markets.  My friend Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service has recently reiterated a warning about November, there’s the little matter o0f how Israel will resolve its red line in the sand with Iran, love fest with the Washington crowd, or not.

And then there’s just that damn market seasonality.  Just like a horse gets conditioned into being spooky (knowing they are everyone else’s food in nature) so too, the small investors (us) ought to be properly spooked when we realize that with the pop of the public debt to the penny north of $17 trillion, and gross domestic product coming in around $15.5 T we’re still spending 9.5% more than we’re making as a country, plus or minus a cheeseburger.

If it was just spending along, we could tighten the belt (everyone would whine, but we’d be surviving).  But unfortunately, something like 56% of the deficit is debt and that has been kicked down the road until early next year, still compounding as we go.

So could the market decline over the coming month or two?  Heck yes.  Is America dead and gone?  Ask me in five years.  We may still be here in name, but will it be recognizable as the same place?  That’s the real question to be asking in here and answers aren’t easy.

Headline Madness

If our occasionally too blunt reporting on things rubs you the wrong way, just remember, we don’t do the “spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down thing around here.”

Elsewhere?  Different deal.  Go read this one:

“CNN Poll: After shutdown, America is less optimistic about economy.”

So did you catch the part which says “…71% of those questioned say that economic conditions are poor right now…”?

To my way of thinking a headline that says “less optimistic” and content that says 71% think poor is like cheerfully headlining that someone is only partly dead.

Cognitive dissonances are all over the place and it takes mental fortitude and a cheerful inner core to see through the crap and keep on keeping on…Oh, and it helps to have bills and like three squares a day, too, I suppose.

More after this…

Healthcare Obamacle

If you’d like to see how some of the folks of the New Daily News did when they got online and tried to sign up for Obamacare, you might find their report of interest.  (Mixed results, if you’re lazy.)  And there’s some good advise on point from Consumer Reports.

Also: Big insurers are avoiding exchange states

Meantime, on the other side of the pond, there’s a story out of the UK about how doctors there are getting a bonus for putting people on – you got to love it – death lists.  Now, I don’t mind someone getting a spiff for putting Ures truly on some death list, or other.  But what’s insulting about this is the amount:  A lousy 50 pounds!  That’s about $80 US dollars, such as they are.

Now, I’ll admit that the average human is worth less than $5 bucks – sez so right here – but I’ve got a couple of gold crowns which ought to make me worth a lot more should I make it to the UK death list.  What’s more, I have future tax generating potential because I plan to work until I die…that’s the point, right?  Always paying, never taking?

I won’t waste any more electrons pointing out the selfishness of the Brits (smart part of the Ure clan got out a hundred plus years ago).  But I will say this again and write it down somewhere:  This kind of dollar-driven death crap will come to ‘Merica despite the protestations of my liberalista friends.

Just like the “check’s in the main” and “Social Security will never be used as a national ID system.”  Oh, and remember “You’ll be able to retire with full benefits at age 65”?  Liberals don’t have very good memories. 

Drones Criticized, But…

Amnesty International is off barking up the wrong tree again, talking about US drone attacks in Pakistan.

What seems misunderstood is that the military just follows order from the Commander in Prize.  And it’s here that people get all tangled up in themselves. 

You see, AI is a fairly liberal group.  So rather than blow the problem (warring in Pakistan without an invite and without a Congressional declaration) back at the White House occupant  they blow it up as something America did and does.

Wrongo.

It all come from the Prizer and if you want to turn off a war, close Gitmo, or any of that, you go to 1600 Public Relations Avenue and offer a round of golf.

Speaking of which, the DiC (Duffer in Chief, not what you thought, OK?) was out for a round yesterday with staffers. 

Question:  Who carded what?  I can never seem to find that…and is there some kind of rule that you don’t beat the boss?

Madness on Syria

Speaking of muddled thing, as we are, there’s another report about how diplomats are saying on the one hand that Syrian president Assad seems to be consolidating power, on the one hand.  And on the other, he still needs to go.

Why?  Because he lost a popularity poll?  Even if he used nerve gas, I seem to remember that his forces were and are fighting a Western-backed rebel force which includes (to this day) al Qaeda affiliates….so I’m stuck in WTF mode…

Polls are Closed

But if they were open, one poll says that almost half say to replace everyone in Congress and we couldn’t agree more.  Unfortunately, that almost half seems to turn out to be the half that doesn’t vote.

D’oh.

Meantime, an independent Marianne Williamson, best selling author, is planning to tackle Henry Waxman in California.

I’ve got $10-bucks for anyone running against Feinstein, too…. If megacorps can shovel money around, I figure the grassroots can, too.

And you saw the InfoWars piece on how Americans will sign a petition to impose an Orwellian Police State modeled on the Nazis?

School Shooting –  Drugs Involved?

Another school tragedy, this time in Sparks Nevada where a teacher was shot and killed, two wounded and the 1213 year old shooter took his own life.

While the anti-gun crowd will have a field day with this, the more pertinent question, methinks, is was the child on any medications, and if so, which ones?

In most of these shootings, seems the drug angle (oh, and toss in violent tv and vidgames) is never played up or widely reported.  Almost like there was an agenda.

Yes, a terrible tragedy, but more follow-on facts are key.

Journo Jobs

Speaking of which, we see how another journalist is going to work for the administration.

Oddly, I haven’t received a job offer, yet.  I just can’t figure that…

Noisy Sheep?

I bet you’ll just be thrilled to read the report over here on how Homeland Security is spending $80-mil on prepping for civil disturbances

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