T-Basher Festival: Sell the Rumors?

The “news budget” this week is pretty interesting: Consumer Prices tomorrow, Housing Starts Thursday, but just more FedSpeak on the rubber-chicken circuit Friday.

The BIG event Friday will be the Trump Inauguration ceremony in front of the U.S. Capitol.

High noon, Trump will be sworn in by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts .

Just prior, at 11:30 AM, Trump will give his Inaugural Speech.

In case you missed it, we penned a suggested/possible speech last weekend on our www.peoplenomics.com side, but since it should be in the public as well, it’s posted here if you missed it.

OK, that’s what’s cooking this week. Other than fearing that “the message is in the media” with the television series Designated Survivor, the markets don’t have much to do except twiddle their thumbs. Or – more properly – churn some accounts.

What I would expect – and this holds even in my modest speech submission isn’t picked up – is that markets will back down a bit this week. Futures were down more than a hundred earlier and then clawed back to down 50.

We’ve talked about the psychology of markets many times. Just like we get “pre-holiday” run-ups, we get different flavors of market performance depending on the hype surrounding an event.

Take BREXIT last June (and still nothing really being done as old-guard British government is as deaf as ours (used to be) when comes to Will of the People. Markets tanked on news of the vote.

Was it justified? Well, hell no. British markets on the Financial Times index dropped to 5,923 just ahead of the vote and talk about how it would cause an implosion of Europe.

Even heading for a 1% drop possibly today, the FTSE Index was at 7,268 when I looked. This means British stocks climbed 22.6% even though the vote “went badly” for the Brussels sprouts. They should have such votes more often.

Clearly, this was an example of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event.

Here in “The Colonies” remember the fear running around before the election?

The S&P was down around 2,085. Friday of last week we closed at 2,274. So again: sell the rumor (the election fears) and buy the news (Trump) and sit back and count your dough: up 9% since Fearful Election Outcome Day.

People are drawn to Negativity, for some reason.

I swore off the stuff a long time ago, even though it did cost me a lot of money to do so. I sleep better not worrying about aliens landing (*from space, not Mexico), a mega-subduction event (oooh – Big fear seller, that one), and I’ve stayed patiently on the data and watching the Doom Porn crowd get rich.

We’re much better off, I figured, offering a more balanced look at the future.

Yes, EMP could go off any time.

Yes, Obama is flooding the country with people who shouldn’t be here without deeper processing.

Yes, North Korea could go South.

Yes, China could take Taiwan by force.

Yes we are in debt, but it really is manageable.

That’s why my suggested Inaugural Speech was more upbeat than down.

Fear-mongers and Doom-Porners would have you believe Obama will seize power in a last-minute coup d’ etat. How many times has that happened? Try zero.

“Oh no…they won’t allow Trump to become president and they will install Hillary to replace Obama and….and….and….”

It gets pretty breathless and pretty stupid.

I’m a “get rich slowly” kind of guy. I don’t panic because in panic lays disaster and death. Think flying an airplane is a place for the timid and panic-prone? Duh.

Do you think the Buffetts and Gates and Ellisons and Bezos’ of this world panic?

No. They have a vision of the future and they simply go build it.

So pardon me if we don’t panic.

If anything happens to Trump I would suspect the U.S. Intelligence agencies who are about to be put in check/neutered.

But let’s be optimistic for a minute.

Could the market be setting up for one last blast into the record books?

Absolutely.

But that idea won’t come from the Doom-Porners. It MIGHT, however, come from a colleagial email that discusses a long-standing Gann Angle forecast (circa 2008) that argues the Dow should head well-over 21,000 on January 20th – Friday – Inaugural Day- and then collapse into the Greater Depression from there.

We shall see, but we shall not be panicked.

As in flying, the main job is to remain in control – because if you don’t, you will crash for sure. In context of this morning’s discussion that means of your personal financial positions should be managed with equal stoicism.

While the fear-mongers are selling their wares, please take a moment to consider the other side of things.

What IF Trump’s speech “Hits one out of the Park?”

I get such a kick out of Trump-bashers: Blind to the fact that a huge national infrastructure revitalization and then off to space we go program could literally explode the market up 10-20 percent in a matter of months.

Yet here we sit with the U.K. Telegraph’s latest T-Bash “How many times does Trump need to say ‘great’ to make his inaugural address the ‘greatest’ ever?”

How many times does Safeway advertise a message? Toyota? Ford? And what goes better with repetition than Coke?

Even more laughable is the arrogance of the British when questioning America on anything. They quickly forget who had to bail them out of World Wars.

I did enjoy seeing them do a word-frequency study – the same approach we use in our Nostracodeus news analytics software to steer the way ahead.

So that’s where we are…sell the rumors time.

The only news this week will be from 11:30 Until 12:10 Eastern time.

After that, on we go.

American Reindustrialization

GM is about to hire 1,000 and spend a billion dollars says a USA Today report.

Don’t exclaim anything stupid like “Great!” because that might offend the T-bashers.

Unless than Gann Angle report works out. But I’m still banking on March or July for the high. It doesn’t look ready, just yet. Still, we’ll be following our Peoplenomics Oscillator and doing what it says.

As of today – even if the market were to drop 300 points on the Dow – it would remain calmly bullish. Which really pisses off the Doom crowd.

T-Basher’s Payoff

Reports WTOP out of D.C. “Unprecedented threats drive Secret Service inauguration security.”

Just between us, IF (God-forbid) anything did happen… I would hold the T-bashers and Hillary supporters who didn’t close ranks in a show of national unity for fostering a national divide we didn’t need to go through. Not to mention the kind of divisiveness that makes crazy people do unspeakable acts.

Ure would be pissed.

Starting with the 40 democratic lawmakers who are skipping the Inauguration.

Unbelievable!

One country, under God… remember that pin-heads? No, democrats are doing TWO Countries…going “wide the divide” as they didn’t solve anything in 8-years – made up laws on the fly – and then piss and moan when America wised-up. Good God…what have we become?

(But wait! There’s more…)

CNN’s Latest T-Bash

Try this headline: “CNN/ORC Poll: Confidence drops in Trump transition.”

Not surprised: Let me count the ways…

1. Trump dissed CNN as fake news recently.

2.CNN leaned very heavily pro-Clinton.

3. CNN/ORC predicted Clinton would win presidency during the election.

So pardon me while I take a chill pill and don’t get too excited.

With Trump’s tweets getting more views than CNN…well, I’d be worried, too.

Especially if AT&T was quietly thinking about dumping my network to make the Time-Warner deal work.

Wait…who can stop that talk? CNBC, that’s who.

Remember the Florida Nightclub Shooter?

His wife’s been popped by the Feds on Obstruction charges.

Comments

T-Basher Festival: Sell the Rumors? — 32 Comments

  1. Interesting to note that there was one other President similar to Trump : Herbert Hoover!
    Like Trump, Hoover was a wealthy and successful businessman elected to public office once. Hoover also deported 500,000 Mexicans, imposed huge tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, and the stock and bond markets crashed on his watch!

  2. Checking Google it says Twas the night before inauguration was posted by anonymous

  3. Twas the Night Before Inauguration!

    Twas the night before Inauguration, and up in the tower, The Donald reflected on his newfound power.
    The conservative masses had come out in force, And delivered a victory that would chart a new course.
    The snowflakes were shell-shocked with tears in their eyes, The media lied to them . . . What a surprise.
    They had been promised a Hillary win,
    But the criminal Clinton took one on the chin.
    And though from all corners celebrities flew, They made no impression, for they hadn’t a clue.
    They talked about climate, racism, and such, And they made up good stories . . . But didn’t know much.
    The fake news and ignorance came at a cost, And they can’t understand all the reasons they lost.
    They blame it on Comey and Bernie and Vlad, But fail to acknowledge the one that was bad.
    Yes, Hillary Clinton, in many ways flawed, Was her own biggest hurdle toward getting the nod.
    The campaign exposed her corruptness and greed, And her speeches were punch-less as ten dollar weed.
    So out in the streets there arose such a clatter, It was Soros-paid protestors and Black Lives Matter.
    With cities to pillage and windows to smash, They knew not the issues, but needed the cash.
    Eight years of Obama had given them cause, To expect a replacement of their Santa Claus.
    But soon the protestors will feel the pain, When the wheels fall off of the old gravy train.
    And now all the snowflakes are riddled with fear, Upset and offended by things that they’ll hear.
    The cocoa and crayons will help for a while, But fact-based opinions will soon cramp their style.
    I originally supported, and voted, for Cruz, In the end, I would vote for whoever they choose.
    He wasn’t my first choice, but soon I would cede, The one they call Trump is the one that we need.
    I saw him on TV in front of a crowd,
    He spoke about veterans, it made me feel proud.
    He spoke about energy, safety, and jobs, Taking this country back from the Washington snobs.
    He was dressed in Armani, all tailored and neat, And the Brunos he wore made the outfit complete.

    For a man of his vintage, he seemed rather fit, And he looked presidential, I have to admit.
    His eyes glowed like embers, his smile was the best, And his hair was the color of my old hunting vest.
    His love for this country was on full display, And his actions spoke louder than his words could say.
    He thanked all his voters, and before he was gone, Saved thousands of jobs while Obama looked on.
    The fate of this country left nothing to chance, So, he filled out his cabinet weeks in advance.
    The men he had chosen were of the same mind, Let’s set the bar high, and not lead from behind.
    He picked up his phone as he rose from his seat, With a flick of his finger, he sent out this tweet;
    “Now Mattis!, now Kelly!’ now Sessions! And Pruitt!
    On Perry! On Flynn, You’re the ones who can do it.
    Start lifting restrictions and building the wall, Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!”;
    The roar of his audience rose from the stands, He kissed all their babies and shook all their hands.
    He answered their questions and calmed all their fears, They knew it would be a fantastic four years.
    Then he jumped in his limo, and off to his jet, A fellow that Liberals won’t soon forget.
    He sent one more tweet as the evening expired; “Happy Inauguration to all, AND OBAMA – YOU’RE FIRED!”

  4. What happens in the USA in the next five years has absolutely nothing to do with who is president. Those seeds were sown more than 10 years ago.

    The only thing that Trump’s election changed was the postponement and perhaps cancellation of WWIII. Had his opponent won, Putin would have pulled the trigger already. Because we all know that Obama as a war president in a real war would have been a USA liability beyond imagination.

    As for creation of USA jobs. Keep in mind because of the high USA wages, and the huge overhead of government regulation and taxes, there is no product manufactured in the USA that cannot be obtained from another source at a better price. Americans today are simply too poor to buy USA products. Just go through your garage/workshop and note everything that is imported. Now visualize paying at least 30% more for all your treasures.

    Another example is Intel. The cost of a CPU for a smartphone is about $20. The fixed costs for each chip that Intel produces is $25. Intel has literally zero presence in the smartphone market. Intel actually contracts with their competitors for custom chips for their customers. Intel spent $3BILLION and change to build the largest manufacturing facility in the world in Arizona. It sits empty today, because it would cost another $6 BILLION to install the fab equipment in that facility. The only way that facility will ever get used is if it is declared to be in a free trade zone where most USA laws are suspended, sold to the Chinese and filled with robotics and workers earning Chinese wages. To manufacture the iPad, Foxcon built a new factory in china and staffed it with 100,000 workers in nine months. That’s the competition the USA faces.

    • You just about hit it on the head this cake was baked long ago, and went on steroids after the 1980 election, with companies and corporations rushing all over the world to increase the profit so that their top 5% could rake in millions a year.
      I was just reading yesterday that to go to the meeting of the high and mighty in Davos you have to shell out some $600,000 per person while they decide how they are going to screw you over for the next 6 months and that’s not going to change regardless of who occupies the oval office or the congress…

  5. let’s see, 40 acres and a mule or a chunk of turf 200k+ miles away that’s actually inaccessible due to van allen belt radiation?
    decisions decisions….

  6. ““Oh no…they won’t allow Trump to become president and they will install Hillary to replace Obama and….and….and….”
    It gets pretty breathless and pretty stupid.”

    OMG I know.. I had a huge discussion with a relative ( who is a professor at a leading University ) over just that..

    they spout stories that don’t amount to a hill of.. well you know.. and he hasn’t even gotten to office yet.. His employee retention level at the companies he oversees is super high, and everyone seems to be very happy there very very few companies can say that about the average employee they hire. I know I never have worked for any company with those ratings.. they tend to be the ones that are extremely hard to get into.So I say give the man a break let him do his job.. his biggest hurdle that he has to face.. is a congress that is still pretty much influenced to do the bidding of the puppet masters, they don’t write the bills the vote in and they refuse to read them our legal system allows lobbying firms open range to getting their agenda’s done a mess a real mess and the citizens refuse to vote the good old boys out….
    OH I truly fear for his safety and hope he has hired a good security team to watch his back since the people that appose him are very very powerful and they aren’t use to loosing and aren’t about to give in to change..and definitely unwilling to give up the power they have acquired.

  7. The Garden Channel has more viewership that CNN, according to a news source I have forgotten.
    Also, odd thing about that nightclub shooting. The eyeglasses of that on-site interview with the “I’ve lost my only son” lady reflected an indoor illuminated Exit sign and a teleprompter. I wonder if the wife is being arrested in a mop-up operation.
    Sometime do have a look at opening footage of the Boston Bombing and see what’s not-so-obviously fake. It slid right past me, as my eyes were focused on the medical impossibilities.

    • Sorry, I went back to Youtube and the NBC footage is not there; this is the one they play on anniversaries that show the storefront straight on. Caravan to Midnight has that one, and raw footage from other businesses that werent seized. That is, if CTM is still there.

  8. Do folks really believe that the British lost the American war for independence ? Just a thought…

  9. Mr Ure, As a former newsy, please tell me I am wrong or help me change this;
    “…40 democratic lawmakers…”.
    Should this not be; “40” Democrat lawmakers”

    I see and hear this everywhere an consider it to be a deliberate change (challenge) to our language by those ‘Dems’. I consider it a slur even greater than the Red / Blue political party identification change.

    Your thoughts comments, please. Thank you

    {mm}

    • You are wonderfully correct.

      Remember (he said shuffling his feet in his own defense) that I was a RADIO newsie in my journo days.
      Screw spelling…why that vurges on actual WERK! (sic, sic, I know)

      • What, George are you referencing WERK in Muncie, IN? The 250 watt directional AM with SIX (count ’em) 6 towers?? Another engineering nightmare that should never have cleared the broadcast bureau????

    • I see and hear this everywhere an consider it to be a deliberate change (challenge) to our language by those ‘Dems’.

      Shouldn’t “AN” be “AND”

      • Since the continuing American educational system continues to churn out near-illiterates, without “grammar police” people would speak even more gibberish than they already do. One primary reason to eliminate common-core, and quickly.

    • Such a silly, pedantic distinction. But hot damn, don’t you feel like a patriot.