Suconomy: The Go Nowhere Economy

It has not been particularly difficult to figure that the economy doesn’t have much of anywhere to go.

The market fell 200 points for a while yesterday, although it wasn’t that bad by the close.  So for that reason, if nothing else, we expect to see a further dump in today’s action.

From a longwave perspective, this is till a Tuesday morning in 1928 and the Fed is still caught between a rock and a hard place.  Consequently, a one year view of the bond market (10-year note) is less than encouraging.

I suppose one could look at the first two blips in the bond chart and argue that we are going to the 2.6% area on the 10-year.  But I sense some resistance around 2.441% and honestly, that would be a dandy place for things to turn back down again.

You know, a lot of information is contained in how market’s move – its just people would rather ask their friends instead of learning to make reasonable projections on their own.

Laziness will cost you.  Just remember, the financial markets are not there to may you rich. That’s one of the big lies.  They are really there to make the rich richer and the poor…well, that’d be you.

Meaningless Data?  Deflation on the Waterfront!

No:  Absolutely not.  Because this gets to the heart of price deflation which I have been going on about (*almost) endlessly.

Import and export prices are hot off a press release – key point is in yellow:

“U.S. import prices declined 0.5 percent in October, after falling 0.6 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Lower prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the October decrease. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.6-percent drop in September. Imports

All Imports: Overall import prices decreased 0.5 percent in October, continuing a downward trend for the index in 2015. Prices for U.S. imports previously decreased 0.6 percent in September, 1.8 percent in August, and 0.9 percent in July. The price index for overall imports declined 10.5 percent between October 2014 and October 2015, after decreasing 2.1 percent for the year ending in October 2014.

Fuel Imports: Import fuel prices decreased 2.0 percent in October, following a 5.4-percent decline the previous month. In October, both a 2.1-percent drop in petroleum prices and a 2.5-percent decrease in natural gas prices contributed to the overall drop in import fuel prices. Fuel prices declined 46.6 percent over the past 12 months. Prices for petroleum fell 48.0 percent for the year ending in October, while natural gas prices decreased 30.3 percent over the same period.

All Exports: The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.2 percent in October, following decreases of 0.6 percent in September and 1.4 percent in August. Lower prices for both agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports factored into the overall decrease in October. Overall export prices also declined over the past 12 months, decreasing 6.7 percent after a 0.7-percent decline for the year ending in October 2014.

Agricultural Exports: Prices for agricultural exports edged down 0.1 percent in October, after decreasing 1.3 percent the previous month. A 2.7-percent decline for meat prices led the October decrease, although lower prices for vegetables and nuts also contributed. In contrast, prices for wheat and corn rose in October, partially offsetting the declines. Agricultural export prices fell 11.8 percent over the past year, driven by declining prices for meat, soybeans, and wheat.

Sets you all a-quiver, don’t it?  General level of price deflation  – just like I’ve been telling you and skeptics still argue the point.

Amazingly, the market LIKES the number.  Greedsters will pocket more spread – what’s no to love?

Bad Winter Coming and Watt-Not

No one in the climate change crowd seems to be making much of the colder- and earlier – than normal winter which is settling in over Siberia.  It’s almost sure to cause an especially cold winter in the Northeast.  But that will quickly be brushed off by the climate change propaganda department as being a yo-yo effect.

As a species, we have become lost and confused in our quest for Truth. 

Take the CNN headline:  Climate change could create 100 million poor, over half a billion homeless.

II have terrible news for CNN:  The problems of the poor yet to come can be laid at the feet of runaway crony-capitalism, multiple unjustified wars,  soil and resource depletion, and un checked birth-rates that (to my cynical way of thinking) line up the world’s major religions which don’t support birth control as purveyors of crimes against humanity.

However, that is opinion and I’m sure you have plenty of that, so let’s whip out some data, shall we?

Here’s is the latest update from NOAA’s Solar Weather Prediction Center. 


I assume you can read a chart and understand some of the basic science?  To begin with, the reason it was so hot in the years immediately following 2000 was (look at the left side of the chart) the Sun had just gone through a very energetic phase.  People will remember the Sun actually looked almost white during this period.

Well, surprise, surprise kiddies:  Every other planet in the solar system experienced warming as well.  but you see what happened in the 2013-2014 peak?  We got stiffed.  Almost a 50% reduction in solar activity.

And what do you see now?  The “trend line” is still hopeful that we will have a real bout of sunspots, although it’s not looking likely to me.  And as a result, there are some very smart people who think the Sun many be entering something like a new Maunder Minimum which brought some of the coldest temperatures on record because we didn’t have thermometers back in the Ice Age proper.

The Sun is a huge economic driver.  Only a complete idiot would claim otherwise.  There is even a case the 11-year economic cycle is more or less directly related to what?  The length of a sun cycle!  (Come on, this ain’t that hard to follow!)

The Climate Promoters have some good points – and I certainly don’t endorse the high pollution lifestyle.  But to deny the central role of the Sun is flat-world thinking at its finest.

imageLooking at this total solar irradiance chart, it should be a little warm now, but the next couple of years will be cooler.

It is just a matter of how much science you really want to consider because total irradiance really is a meaningful metric.

Are refrigerants bad?  Sure.  Fossil fuel burn?  Of course.


But now inspect the chart to the right borrowed from the Judith Curry Climate Etc. website over here.

As you can see, yes, sea level at the time of the last Ice Age was a lot lower and yes, things have been melting for thousands upon thousands of years.

But we are not all going to sink into the oceans from it, at least not yet.

I know you hate it when I point this stuff out.  I won’t last another 40-years (statistically) but in the meantime, if there is anything I can do to help you pull together a little longer-term perspective than whatever today’s End of the World ratings hype-driven bullshit is, I’m here to help.

If you really want to end global warming there are some very simple things that would fix the problem in a heartbeat:  Turn off the heat in your home.  Turn off the air conditioning, too.  Turn off your computer.  Take out electricity.  East only foods grown on your own property so transportation systems aren’t needed.  Quit jet travel.  Sell you car and walk everywhere.  Walk to work and find a job that doesn’t require people or electricity to gather and is transportation free because there is a price from everything we do.

You go first.  I;m an old fart and I’ll move on soon enough to make room for one of those Yemen babies that are popping out faster than popcorn  and angrier than hornets.  In the meantime, leave my thermostat alone and remember UrbanSurvival has been solar-powered with our 3,500 watts of panels since 2008.  We’d rather walk the talk than bullshit everyone.

Hence forth, I will only discuss my climate view with people who have more solar panels up than I do.  So if you own MORE THAN 3,500 watts of grid-interactive panels, we can talk.  Otherwise, you’re just another climate bullshitter like the rest of ‘em – always unloading on the guys who walk the honest path, like me.

Put some money on the table (yeah, means getting a job and saving or investing) or STFU on climate till you get some skin in the game and buy a stake.  And if you attend a church that actively promotes more-than-replacement reproductive rates, you’re part of a terrorist organization and you might want to distance yourself from it.

UMo Idiocy Day 2 / Coup d’ Streets

The president and chancellor of University of Missouri have now resigned.

Now, to a logical person like me, it would seem the groups upset about racial (whatevering) have accomplished their objectives.  Look for black and/or Latin replacements to be named any minute.  Toss in a gay or lesbian double or triple-counter, while we’re at it.  That ought to make everyone deliriously happy!

Hey – here’s a great idea!  Let’s put students in charge of hiring the replacements so we can run schools on a popularity contest basis, too!

But here’s the thing:  Why aren’t classes back in session now that the goal has been reached?

Oh-oh…Mr. Cynical says this is the leading edge of social anarchy coming to ‘Merica.  All that needs to happen is some institution gets attacked on racist grounds and a coup d’ street takes place.

Marvelous ain’t it?  Anarchy without having to call it that.  Whew.  That’s a paradigm saver, ain’t it?

If I was attending MSU, I’d be demanding a 100% tuition refund.  The school has failed to maintain and deliver a quality education.  Cancel the student loans, while you’re at it, too.


Suconomy: The Go Nowhere Economy — 26 Comments

  1. I don’t know climate cooling from climate warming. Things change, always have, always will. Having said that, we here in central Florida, have been breaking heat records one after another for the past few weeks. That would be the weather … not the people. Although we got a few of those too … The hot air types that is…

  2. OK. Yours is bigger than mine. Biggest concern is keeping the watts up.

    Best day = 12.5 kWh, a day in May,in Montana.

  3. George,

    a bit of lavender essential oil on the back of the neck will do wonders for calming, blood pressure and it smells great too!

  4. Return with us now to the thrilling days of yesteryear (Cal Berkeley and Columbia in 1968). I was watching msm coverage of unrest at Mizzou and it was deja vu all over again. I had to chuckle at their demand to fire white faculty and replace them with African American faculty. Good luck firing tenured faculty even for cause. Administrators come and go but tenured faculty are for ever.

  5. There are science articles ‘out there’ informing those interested that Volcanic eruptions have outgassed more pollutants
    than mankind’s factories.
    Look up the figures on how many volcanic eruptions took place just in 2014-2015. Do the math.
    Earth has her own cycles, so lets give her some credit too.
    Oh yes-
    earth movement and eruptions are affected by the sun, Its an interplay between the tow- like a love dance of sorts.

    • well, then lets go pollute the world FULL SPEED AHEAD!

      Don’t you dimwits realize that there is nothing we can do about volcanoes,? but we have the control so stop pouring more filth into our air
      kid of like “Hey if volcanoes can do it-why can’t we?!?!”

  6. Please delete as neccessay,. Thanks and you have a very good day the Suns out up here after some rain from yesterday and the day before I hope the weather down there where you’re at is better than up here in Tennessee and I just hope generally all around your doing good wish you the best hang in there buddy

  7. Empires Rise and Empires fall it is the nature of the beast. Guess which side we are on.

  8. George, Please note that global climate change statistics are calculated from not only land data, but more importantly from ocean data. As the seas count for nearly 70% of surface area on the planet they have a far greater effect on planetary climate conditions than land mass alone. To attempt to invalidate this research by quoting sporadic land forecasting is misleading and rather naive. Love what you do on the economic/political side. Those F’ers will mangle anything to fill their agenda/coffers.

  9. it seems that the younger population doesn’t even know what a table of contents is or an index is especially when making websites they’re like oh we have a search engine here but no table of contents and the index how terrible can it get

  10. Is it really worth putting fish under the porch when you could use crawfish because they require less water volume but at the same token would the water under the ports create too much condensation Android out the porch from underneath catch 22 there I think about

  11. if you are a typical homeowner that has three phones House phones that is then the thing of the future that the phone companies might want to produce is a phone that has a button for memory recording so the person can you know when someone hangs up on them or their birthday have a thought they can push a memory button and it recorded just like the smart phones do you know you have a place there that you can punch into an app like smart voice recorder than others but that would be on the home phone so you would be able to record things you know in your spur of the moment or you could record the conversation yes and that’s illegal huh yeah sure but Google does it and your government does it but you’re not in able to do that right

  12. Yep, it’s all in the mix now, but regardless of whether the world collapses are not, one thing is for sure, there is no place left for me in modern society. Just as well…

  13. George,

    Some friends work at the local FAA here in Albuquerque. They had a meeting recently with their weather experts from who knows where. They are predicting ten times the normal moisture this winter in the SW. May be snow, may be rain. Anyway, it’s going to be wet because of that thing going on out in the Pacific. Maybe you are to far east to be called part of the SW. Just thought I would give you and your friends a heads up.

  14. I agree with Bill. George is getting angry and hot-headed kind of like Sonny in The Godfather.

    “No consigliere, no more meetings, no more sit-downs, you give them one message, I want Salotzo dead!”

  15. You are becoming a wise one in your 66.8 years, G.E. — when will you go on tour to expand this knowledge in person

    • how big of an RV will you need for this cheering expedition ,I know you have to have room for Zeus,and maybe a hamster. To keep Zeus entertained

      • When you become I guess you call it starstruck and you like I don’t have anything to say you and Zeus can watch the hamster run around on his wheel until something happens in the brain that snap single yeah that’s a good idea

  16. Check your sources, it is the University of Missouri not Missouri State University. They are different.

  17. A new sport is born, campus collapse; coming to a college near you. The inmates actually are running the asylum. Watch enrollment figures for MSU go in the tank.

  18. Ure, I think you’re finally getting as angry as the rest of us out here. You’ve seemed considerably more grouchy over the past couple of months. Shall subscribers throw in a bottle of Old Fitzgerald with our payments from now on?

    Keep on hammering those keyboards!

    • George is finally realizing that America is a place where there are simply no good decisions left to make. And he has not yet made his choice of coping chemicals.

      It’s frustrating for the 15% that are not subject to mind control, to have life reduced to a choice of Zionist A or Zionist B for President, or do you want the new tool made in China, or the new tool made in China. I have two high IQ Gen X’ers who can’t comprehend that a choice between Levi’s or Wranglers is not a choice. It’s the realization that a new plane or a new sports car or a new tractor just ain’t going to do the trick.

      Life sucks when it gets bad, but not bad enough to do something about it. It’s the old frog in a pot all over again. As a wise friend told me of leaving, the first time I went back it was for the piano. The second time I went back for the dog. The third time, I knew if I went back it would cost my life.

      • to the Ecuador Expat — I like your way of thinking so much that if you send me the cost of a plane ticket I will move down there and rent one of your places! Thanks for thinking!

      • Well said Ecuador. I’m seriously looking at Cost Rica and Ecuador.

        My Christmas gift to me is going to be a Rosetta Stone course in Spanish.