Strategic Economic Relocation

Pretend for a moment it was the housing top in 2007 or the bubble top in 1929.  Would you have the balls (and economic justification) to sell your home, rent for a while, and then buy a much nicer home?

The question is not so simple, turns out.

First, though, a few news snips including a first hint at the jobs numbers which will be pouring out over the next couple of days.

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Strategic Economic Relocation — 30 Comments

  1. What made the CT90 and CT110 so popular was the folding handlebars, they could be carried on the back of an RV, they were one of my best sellers then they came out with the CT125 without folding handlebars, killed sales. I did keep the CT0 I rode in Shriners parades, still have it, it has about 100 miles on it.

  2. My instincts tell me something is missing from your assessment. I understand sell high, wait, and then buy low. But, I am not experienced enough to articulate this but maybe you can write about this better with me asking my question like this: How does devaluation of the currency factor into selling/holding or renting/buying? Another way to ask this is to look at what happened to the peso in 1994 and the ruble in 1998. Meaning, you could sell high, the currency gets devalued or collapses, your money gets washed down by 50%, and even then you cannot buy back what you sold, at least for a while. Could that while be 10 years or more?

    Your model, to me, behaves as if the dollar’s value stays the same and devaluation of real estate occurs and possibly other goods. That’s where my instincts don’t jive. What about an increase in prices of necessities, food, gas, etc., along with a devaluation or collapse of the currency?

    And, taxes. I see taxes going up and up and up to compensate for all the declines in all receipts (fed income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, etc.).

    I get it that your place is too far from all of those you love. I get it, that it may not be that forever home for many reasons, age related and otherwise.

    So, if you forget about timing the markets to make money, make the decision on obtaining best price now so as to go do the next great thing.

    For example: sell your place, pick your next area, build a duplex, rent out one side and live in the other. Then travel. You can still pick a location in a smaller town, still have a garden, still within 20 miles of a hospital, and still closer to the kids. At that stage, I would be inclined to pick a state with LOW property taxes even if it had state income tax, because in Texas, in the cities, the property taxes are taking more of a bite than the state income taxes in other states with LOW property taxes!

    I would think about building or buying my next property now, where you want it, and age in place there. 29 acres, and all that goes with it would be one thing if you had your kids around you running the tractor, coming over for meals, hanging out, grand kids and all of that, and themselves homesteading with you on your acreage building their own homes, etc., but since you don’t, seems to me, it is not the place any longer. I understand that out there your property taxes will be lower than most city folks, so that is a plus. (See, families would have to work together to bring prosperity to all of them, but how many families do you ever see anymore that work together to build prosperity for all the family members?)

    If you get what you want now, it is yours, regardless of the market. I am not saying to overspend, just make some road trips and go check things out ‘again.’

    One last thought, you could also build another ‘small home’, not tiny, on the property, say about 1,000 sq feet with a nice porch, far away from your main home as to give you privacy, and then rent that. The person or family you rent to can oversee your place while you are gone AND you can bring in some rental income.

    I made a decision a long time ago when I purchased my house initially for $62,000, then years later took a loan against it, if my now currently over appraised ($315,000) home dropped to $80,000, it would still be worth more than I bought it for and I am ahead if it is still mine, and I can afford to live in it. Even if I sold it now, I could not afford to buy back into this neighborhood ever. I haven’t lost a thing, if I still have my roof over my head! Meaning, if I took your advice, and sold now, I could clear about $240,000. But, I may as well kiss this city good bye as that isn’t enough money to buy within a 15 mile radius of the city. So, I am bridging/hedging my decision. I am purchasing a small very modest older home outside of the main city to downsize to. I will then rent the one in the city until it can’t rent any longer or the whole area gets bought out by a developer or everything collapses. Soon, I will pull as much equity out of it as possible, so if it all goes to heaven in a hand basket, that nice bank can just keep it in exchange for the loan; and you know they never lose on their refinances! The facts are George and Elaine, you never own a dam thing in America or on this earth, you just play ‘house’ and ‘bank’ your whole life. It ain’t near half as fun as playing ‘doctor’, but it is an education. Inventions like Property Taxes and Federal Taxes have ensured that we rent our whole lives anyway. You two are smart enough to make the best of it, and all the rest of us will learn from your experiences and knowledge. Thank you for asking for inputs.

  3. George,
    After looking at the pics of your place all I can really say is you are never going to be able to replace it for even twice the cost or more. You have a very nice place!! Reconsider selling and moving.

  4. I’ve been aware of longwave economics just about as long as I was ‘market aware’. Even before I discovered George’s writings here… and I’ve been here a looong time. I looked at my career, timing, expected retirement date, and I KNEW it was going to be a crapshoot whether I retired first, or the economy & country collapsed. These past few years have been dicey, but I got my paid-for retirement home and social security… for now.

    So George, you have what I’ve worked my life to have… in a smaller version. Why you would want to trade that in and expose yourself to ‘market risk’ and ‘timing’ issues is beyond me. Admittedly, I don’t participate in ‘markets’ anymore after a good clip in commodities decades back. But I follow the markets and longwave prognostications just for personal life planning purposes. I’m glad I made it here before the system collapses. I never thought I would make it. The system has lingered longer than anyone thought it would, or could!

    Count your blessings! And hunker down. That last bit of life capital should be enjoyed… not leveraged for ‘more’. You already got ‘more’, brah!

  5. ” Home Runs
    About Them Borders
    Two notables:

    First is a DoJ report that says one in four in the federal iron bar hotels was born NOT HERE. ”

    With the cost of incarceration at thirty to fifty thousand a year per resident of the Iron Bar Motel.Shoot why just send our jobs overseas for the citizens to pay for. I suggest we use the NAFTA treaty and negotiate a stay in another country.. Like Mexico or turkey for any violent offenders with a proof of life clause for once a year checks.. then use a law similar to the ones used by Singapore (caning.) fine them first then put the repeat offenders in the middle of the mall live television for how ever many wacks it takes.. for one.. not to many would like to have their pearly whites smacked by some ninja.. and no violent offender wants to spend time in a jail in another country.

  6. the man that I bought my first use one from told me tell no one where you have gotten this from because at this particular time we’re not allowed to tell people things of that nature I said okay, his response was you know not what you have, until the day the girl that I was dating Our Father reveal to me about this ct90 not only could this thing get you back with the extra gas tank but you could also use the extra gas tank with no gas get you extra mileage while scientists say how can you do that well that’s what they don’t want you to know there is a model that has two extra gas tanks but you won’t find it anywhere one on the left and one on the right when you combine those gas tanks with just a minimum out of gas and I’m themes we’ll run this trail bike for hundreds of miles is called fumigating you heard that before you take the fumes from one tank and you pull it into the next tank and then into the next tank how is that possible it works best when there’s hardly any fuel in it that way the fume have more air than they do volume of gas and it goes from one tank to the other into the carburetor and then that’s when you use your high altitude switch I’ll let you think it out from there anyway have a good day

    • Thanks, Bryce, I enjoyed riding your ct90 on your rambling road. Good advice.

    • I forgot to tell you but this has a metal Square rack on the back of this ct90 and you can carry an extra two to three hundred pounds on that and then you can take a cart and pull a cart another 500 pounds on it,
      I have used this to pull firewood out of the Hills,
      I have also tried pulling a car when it’s in the extra low gear range and it works the only thing is you have to pull from the low Center gravity which would be the drive axle, otherwise it could flip over on you
      But the ct90 is a mule no doubt about it

      • The other plus about this is It’s narrow and you can go in the forest where a four wheeler can’t

  7. Another possible option is to hedge your bets with a rental property in the nearest city;
    You could buy a condo in the city and rent it to a tenant while staying on your farm. If your health goes (and you don’t die happy), kick out the renter, move to the condo, and then sell or rent your farm.
    You have to be sure that you can get rent that meets the condo mortgage (and get a good renter!). This might not work everywhere–check local renter rights laws, etc–but in Texas it might be an option….

  8. Anyway I am where I want to be in for those of you who aren’t keep looking thoughts have wings

  9. if you were to sell or in my condition if I were to sell I would go in an RV because i have had 2 rv’s but my self i would take off in a big van with my ct 90 honda towed on the back or than because I am single but I would not want to leave my girlfriend but anyway I would leave in an RV or can ,and travel after selling the house and have that money available when the market does crash and then we end up because you’re free at that point while you’re traveling and instead of paying the high seas that you’re talking about living in the city I would travel around looking for campgrounds that where you can live for $200 a month you can save a bunch of money that way ,to buy a good deal and relocate that’s one Avenue the other Avenue is I like where I’m at and I’m staying till I’m dying have a good day,
    The third is as in my case I live on 50 some Acres and also have a cabin in town near the hospitals so I would not need to take off and travel, the area near the hospital where the cabin is is less than mile-and-a-half from the hospital and it’s a good area to real good area very very little crime, and the only crime out here in the country at my Sugar Shack I call it because I can do anything I want without any restrictions in fact I’m starting to dig a hole area 60 feet by 20 feet and make an underground Greenhouse or earthship ,now I probably won’t get very far but at least it gives me something to do for the rest of my life everyday . May all beings be lovingly fulfilled so be it

    • put a CT 90 Honda on the back without an armed guard and it’ll disappear. You priced what collectable trail 90’s are going for?>

      • The ct90 is a remarkable small motorcycle or trail bike as you would call it it will go 55 to 60 miles an hour and it’ll get 90 miles per gallon it’s a trail bike and go into the woods and do whatever you want with it one of the things about this trail bike is it has folding handlebars so it’ll fit in your trunk and this is a 90cc thing you know the only thing I like about the ct90 is is it has an automatic transmission almost know the words you push it down it goes to the next gear that’s for Gears but that’s not the biggest point about it it has another leave her somewhere underneath that put you into an extra low gear ratio and on that extra gear ratio you will not be able to go over 22 miles an hour approximately in fact that thing will climb up a dam wall any Rock any day gone thing you got that’s how slow speed it is it will climb and you have for Gears that you can climb in on low range and then when you get back out on the road or in the clearing you could shift into the high range and hit the 50 to 60 mile an hour speed limit,

      • The other asset about the ct90 is it has a little reserve gas tank that fastens on the back I think it’s like near about a gallon or something like that so if you get out too far into the desert or mountainous areas you voice got that extra little almost a gallon and I’ll get you back where you need to get to but if you wanted to have a party way out in the wilderness does you go way back in there into the mountainous sides where are normal trail bike wont go you could probably fill that reserve tank up something else you oh gosh let’s not talk about that

      • And here’s the story when I used it for I lived in the Tidewater area Virginia from Suffolk to Virginia Beach I took this little trail bike and with the rack on the back I took some Lumber and created a box on the back and since I was a mechanic I put all these new technology Cool Tools on their electronic tools and went and advertised in the local newspaper for tune-ups I had more work than I could handle I did was able to go anywhere and everywhere very cheap at 90 miles per gallon so I had a very low overhead because I was working at their places I had car dealers it’s okay I have a hundred I got 200 come here and do it to our cars so that’s one Avenue to go if you think you can’t make it there’s a way

      • One more plus for the ct90 isn’t has a little hole and push switch is for all commoners you know when you’re in the in high mountainous range and the gas doesn’t work right you can push or pull that thing to make it work just right so this was a device I think that was made for the CIA because I’ve used it for hunting and you can put your rifle on it it cuz it has a dual kickstands and the other kickstand and it’s like hey you can just put the stuff on there and and go wherever you want and then there’s exhaust there’s a way to to the exhaust is very quiet but you can make it unnoticeable I’m not going to tell you about that but anyway you can silence it it’s ct90 I think was a hit vehicle they use in various parts of the country because it could could be concealed in Trunks and taken anywhere in an auxiliary gas tanks to take you back when you ran out of gas and plus there’s a whole bunch of more pluses for this thing that we can’t talk about because it might be against National Security I guess

      • Oh did I mention it’ll run underwater well not exactly but there is an attachment you can add to it that makes it run under water are you getting tired this ct90 how much of this s*** am I making up and how much is Just plain truth you’ll never know to you own one or two and then they’re all not the same they changed every year

      • And if you have enough money you can get them custom-made they can do anything okay you caught me I’m lying ,lots of laughs

      • The reason they don’t have to make any more of these things and they still use them today is because they made a bunch of them and they kept them in storage and they still work they can take a helicopter or any kind of plane and parachute one of these down with one of those sealed units or any other unit and they can infiltrate quickly and go anywhere they want to go and come back out with one of these units that’s why I’m saying it could be a National Defense issue there other countries don’t know how people can go in quickly as you can go in and come back out now that’s the old technology did new technologies sense because these were made in the sixties and seventies at the same time in the sixth late sixties and seventies we got into the time-traveling portal so they didn’t really need it or the others are they had it but anyway what I’m trying to say is it still works today along with the time travel program that we have in existence since the early sixties and seventies or late sixties and seventies

  10. Stay in the country! We finally bought our mini farm. We are 67 and 74 years old respectively. Sick of obnoxious neighbors, barking dogs, ATV’s in back yards, higher taxes. Proximity to a hospital over-rated – they breed disease! Just try to live healthy and consider each extra day in your little paradise a blessing.
    Besides, being close to kids who don’t think like you and are too busy to look up from their cell phones is no great advantage! A wise realtor said you look on rental properties as an investment. Your primary house is your HOME. Stay where your heart is.

  11. Living in Phoenix is not all that great. More traffic, more rude people… better restaurants though !! Your neighbor can be heard doing all of their business. I don’t know..I would vote for the country. Besides when SHTF your kids may be moving to your neck of the woods to escape the mobs.

    • I agree about the kids. They may be eager to move in just to have a safe place to live. If it gets that bad, being close to an urban area for jobs or medical care will be rather pointless. You would have an EMT on standby, so acquire necessary meds and equipment now. Seems to me long, detailed conversations with kids are in order.

      As for temporary renting for 3-5 years waiting for the right moment seems really iffy to me. I am 71 and not as healthy as you are, but I see how physical decline rate increases and emergencies can happen anytime.

      We humans are too readily caught up in wishful thinking and dissatisfaction with current conditions. Keep mulling this decision. When you have the correct conclusion, there will be gut level certainty.

      Your home looks fab to me living in a one bedroom apartment. Have you forgotten what a hassle moving is?