Still Waiting for 2,200

Election Year Denial is in full swing today, brothers and sisters.  Put your hands on the quote monitor and gimme a Hallelujah!.

Again?  Hallelujah!

And we have been riding it up since February  while the worrywarts scream.

My friend Robin Landry up in Oklahoma sees the market very similarly to how I’m sizing it up.

Ure’s truly is long the QQQs and just waiting for things to get moving again.  Our brainamp.xls program (for Peoplenomics subscriber, see the top of the Master Index page to download)  has some shorter-term targets where we will “get off this pony” but we can save those for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.

In the meantime, though, there are two competing wave counts going on. 

One of them – which the biggest name in Wave Theory seems to like – is that a big pullback – down to the 1,840 S&P level will be along before we “go to the moon” and then have our disaster.

But we may not need such a pullback. 

As Robin noted yesterday, the Monthly MACD (explanation) has already crossed to the upside.

And our work in Peoplenomics says we had that big wave 1 (or the larger V) up from February, then we pulled back – and now we seem to have completed – or nearly so – the smaller 1 of the 3 of the V.

At any rate Ure is on the long side, since I pulled the plug on my short position (profitably but only enough for “tip money”) on our recent trip.

Today, we are in waiting mode.  There should be a powerful update evolving in coming weeks but that all depends on how things work out in the bond market.

My pet theory continues to be that as bonds find a bottom, there will be people who will lose faith in bonds as being the road to long-term riches.

When this happens, stocks will start to soak up money and head for the sky.  The reason being that government is still printing money like crazy to paper-over the Federal Debt.

And in a funny way, the Fed directly benefits from the printing process since the Fed has all those paper bags full of paper assets left over from the Housing mess.

Since most of that is based on real estate, and inflation will drive up the underlying home prices, the Fed in a sense is holding an appreciating asset (wasn’t it something like $4 trillion?_) that will go up as inflation comes along…

This is not financial advice of course.  We’s just having a chit-chat. Reading the ticker and all. But it’s an interesting thing to ponder.  While – that is – we study the latest breaking economic news…

Productivity And Labor Costs

Hot off the servers over at the Labor Department:

“Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.5-percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.2 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

From the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, productivity decreased 0.4 percent, the first four-quarter decline in the series since a 0.6-percent decrease in the second quarter of 2013. (See table A.) Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2016, reflecting a 1.5-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.5-percent decline in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 2.1 percent over the last four quarters. (See tables A and 2.)

This YUGE question for American b’ness is this:  Do workers have a right to unlimited phone and texting access and FB and Twitter and Tinder… AT WORK?

The markets sized this up with a yawn.  Futures are still up 20 on the Dow when I looked.

Which means in the mind of Wall Street “It could have been worse…

Yeah…sure…but this is three quarters in a row.  So here’s the prediction:  More limits on unlimited bandwidth access and device time at work will be along.

Check with Chinese factory workers on this…

What News Matters?

We again have to put on our money-colored glasses this morning to put the world into proper perspective, since yes, everything is a business model.

We see, for example, that the Amazon/Washington Post says there’s nothing to worry about – in a round-about way – over Hillary Clinton’s health.

On the other hand,  Donald Trump is beginning to paint the current presidential high-bidder as the tool of more government regulations and higher taxes. 

Trump, for his part, is out with a pretty solid sounding economic plan that would freeze and roll back excessive (and expensive) government regulations.

We don’t expect that Trumps return to point on message will result in an instant poll swing, but the odds are good that the old Nixonian “silent majority” doesn’t want more immigrants – especially Obama’s 10,000 from Syria – and doesn’t want additional regulations for the small business owners down on Main Street.

The poll effects – if any – won’t been seen for a week or two.

Meantime, Trump’s campaign will no doubt get some serious traction off the echoes of Benghazi – now that the relatives of two victims there have sued Hillary for her actions/inactions while at State.

Claiming wrongful death and defamation, it will be interesting to see whether Clinton can simply “talk over” the problem – which is the Clinton style.  Deny, deny, deny…

More Clinton Magic

“Orlando shooter’s father attends Hillary Clinton rally in Kissimmee…”

Did someone put a couple of hits of windowpane in my coffee, or something?

Fryin’ Ryan?  Thanks fer Tryin’

A Note to Revolutionary Voters

The question up in Wisconsin today is how much of a challenge will Paul (the turncoat) Ryan face in his home district?

As we have mentioned many times, our opinion of Ryan is lower than dirt because he didn’t challenge the Obama budget, didn’t stop the import of unvetted Syrians, hasn’t stopped the border influx here in Texas…and hasn’t done much of anything but act like a Democrat in sheep’s clothing.

If I were in Wisconsin and voting, I’d go for Nehlen, since he’s not so invested in the special interests and hasn’t got a piss-poor track record to defense.  Like on trade, and so forth.

That’s the thing, you see:  The folks in Washington have invented a kind of intellectual “bubble” of logic that doesn’t need to be used in the real world.

Trump is getting around to this point well, too:  Once you move out of Washington-Think, America is only held to past bad decision-making and policies by our own “paper hand-cuffs” which is all the gibberish and hornswoggling that goes on.

The end result is you take a once well-meaning guy like Ryan, put him into the bubble of Washington-Think, simmer for 8 years and he’s now an Obama-centrist and essentially incapable of reflecting the will of the people back home.  He’s trying to go rock-star and personal brand.

It’s not unlike the pap that passes for peer-reviewed in academic circles.  If you don’t rock the boat, you can become a “thought leader” in any field – and you don’t even need to do original research.  Just keep your head down, comment on the hard work of others, sense the academic tide (even if demonstrably wrong) and a department chairmanship looms bright in your future.

The same thing goes on in Washington.

The rock stars of solid thinking (Ron Paul for example stayed outside the Washington-Think bubble) have to claw their way to the side of the arena – and when they finally get into a place where they can grill the likes of Alan Greenspan back when, two amazing things happen.

First, the MSM cuts out the parts of live coverage where Ron Paul was trying to ask pointed questions.  And then, the MSM “press machine” cranks up to marginalize Ron Paul.  They are the defenders of the Olde Way.

The same thing works on Bernie Sanders, too.  He makes a certain amount of sense, gets some backing, and then the statist machine cranks up, marginalizes, and finally he gets fed-up and has to go back to running as an Independent.

What this Paul versus Paul deal up in Wisconsin will teach us is more about the level of voter awareness of this problem than anything.

Washington – theory goes – when the country was young – was a place of citizen legislators.  They would poll their peeps back home and presto!  Great government.

As the pop-bomb went off, media powers concentrated – and the paper bubble grew around Washington like a thicket of thorns, in the form of bureaucratic processes, the responsiveness of government to the needs of the people has been thrown out the window.

The only way to get through the morass is to get people elected who won’t stand for the “paper hand-cuffs” of old – inappropriate regulation and legislation.

Instead we will be able to sit back, simplify government and have some real “Come to Jesus” moments about how screwed up the country really is.

But the democrats can’t do it:  They have a 52-year investment in the misnamed “Great Society” mess making up (in the process) a terrible welfare economic engine that feeds their party.  Screws the people, doesn’t achieve result, except on election days for the likes of  Boxer and Pelosi and Reid.

And so far, the republican’s can’t do anything about it, either.  They are so easily hand-cuffed to the “paper process” that they might as well be pick-up subs in a gay bar: “Cuff me, pahleeze!”  “I won’t rock the boat…”

They get “big-shotted” into believing that we are bound to a “tradition” of legislation and jurisprudence and consequently they lay around hand-cuffed to yesterday’s bad ideas.

WTF?  What happened to Change? 

Best-of-class analysis?  Genuine responsiveness to voters?

Disbanding Congress and sending it all back to the home districts and putting the whole Auction Process of legislation up on a massive Skype call so we can all see what’s going on?  Yeah that would make sense.

Will it happen?


You see, Government is not really responsive to change.  There is a paper bubble over Washington – and the ties to past bad policy are strong.

We hold that a dispersed House – forced to live and work back in the home District, existing as an online service – which banks manage handily – would be the only way to quickly cure what ails us.

Online government works because everyone can “co-vote”…home District presence matters.

I would love to see an online democracy.  A hybrid of people of honor and principles along with co-voting on key issues.

The hell of it is people in Wisconsin are statistically likely to return the Wrong Paul.  So it’s not likely to happen.

So it is again that until we become Revolutionary Voters, the paradigm will drift – ever so slowly – among the hands with the Big Money and those who have the “power of tradition” and the “way we do things around here” to handcuff the likes of Ryan.

Disclaimer:  Don’t read today’s column within 500 of a polling place in Wisconsin.  An outbreak of revolutionary voting could upset the status quo.

Speaking of Blow Offs

A mountain is being connected to the Internet so people can watch it.

Seems almost funny, don’t it?  I mean here were are in a massive blow off in the market and a volcano is coming online?

Why, there’s something almost aerie about how the connection between paradigms works, sometimes.


Still Waiting for 2,200 — 26 Comments

  1. Hi, George.
    If you send someone to Washington who promises to represent the people, he will be marginalized by the Washington culture. If he does manage to make changes and makes too many waves, he will end up like JFK…
    The whole Washington culture is corrupt to its very core. All of it, not just the president, needs to be routed out like a bad infection. We need to start over again; hit the reset button. Nothing will change if that doesn’t happen. It will just get worse, until We The People won’t have the power to change things anymore. And I’m afraid We are already there.

  2. Rumor: Eisenhower originally intended to address the problem of “The Military Industrial Congressional Complex” but he was “advised” to revise it.

    Eisenhower had heart problems and perhaps an NDE in the late 1950s as I recall from my youth, but I cannot find any reference to that on the web. But I strongly suspect this experiences of ill health changed him.

  3. I love ya’ George. But, you gotta’ know, I strongly resent your use of the word “Hallelujah” in such an irreverent way.

  4. You write: “The only way to get through the morass is to get people elected who won’t stand for the “paper hand-cuffs” of old – inappropriate regulation and legislation”.
    A bit hard George when the system is rigged, as I see it looking in from down under, everything is rigged, markets are rigged, the USD$ is rigged, the gold price is rigged, market tends are rigged, Mr Trump is right the election will be rigged. What is the future? there is no future.

  5. The dream I had last month left me trembling because I thought it was real,i emailed the with. Description of watch a brilliant object pads close and finally exploding not far away I checked my outside cameras and nothing was there, it finally hit me this was a dream gone real only so much realer than the earthquake dream I once had and now the farsight Institute had 3 different remote viewers who saw this happen ,. Okay just relax and breathe ,1,2,3,4

    • Had a dream which I documented on the dream website. Asteroid hailstorm over Austin, so I know what you mean. Why don’t you submit it?

  6. What do I gather from the time that we’re in right now I think it’s time to start doing some isometrics and get rid of that beer gut and take some long walks to get the heart going to get the rhythm going and if all that really gets you going will you know get the old lady I mean the young lady to do some dancing with you yeah yeah because right now and there are future the most important thing that you can have his attitude the attitude that you can survive and that you will have fun doing it I could probably send you another website the thing about well you know Mother Nature kills everything and also go out and kill something like a plant so you can eat it or a chicken so you can eat it it’ll kill things you know so that you can eat it yeah that’s kind of well for city folks are like can’t kill nothing because if I do you know and they don’t realize that all the foods that they have eight have been killed so I mean you’re going to have to get into a chill mood when things shift or change you have to be able to do it yourself instead of relying on other Bing infrastructures to do that I mean you may still be able to survive but you know being in a community of people where there is the person who will butcher the pig so you can have some pork chops for dinner I don’t know what else to tell you except look around and don’t let one thing get you down go around instead okay that’s that’s a pretty good advice I think

    • We are going back to the early 1800’s, believe it or not – we get it. Buy buckets of salt, sharpen your knives, get your hoes, hammers, wheelbarrows, shovels, pitchforks, lanterns, cast iron stove, seeds, chickens, water purifiers, good ole fashioned books on how to do things, grow your own garden, and try to cultivate like minded neighbors; we are gonna need them.

  7. Hi how you doing George I can’t help you and you can probably not helped me more than we already have but this is a vital importance for most of us that have land and for most of us that live in an area where the land has not been tilled the most important thing would be to get A5 gallon bucket if you can of sunflower seeds not to eat of course you could but because once you plant them in they disturb the Earth they have a long route that will disturb the Earth enough to allow nutrients to go into the Earth to wear later you’ll be able to plant your other seeds because too many people fail when they plant their seeds and they go like Oh Why didn’t it work one is because the soil for the the shell underneath is too hard for the roots to penetrate but with sunflower seeds they do that that’s what you call up prep by planting those before you need to plant your seeds and let them grow and do the damage that they can do to the clay or the soil then you have a better chance and you know there’s no they say you don’t have hydraulic or you don’t have oil or you don’t have gas or diesel or if everything’s broken down the one thing that that activates the Earth is those little seeds those seeds sunflower seeds because they dig down into the Earth for depth that is Walmart puzzles and here’s a couple web sites are one of them is this one and the other ones that one it’ll cost 40 bucks to find out what they are and what they’re doing but anyway those web sites are are indicating what’s going to happen it’s not psychic or anything like that it’s just common in all mechanics this is the way this works and most people don’t know how it works and this is what’s going to happen because of the way that works and now what are you going to do we have options you know that’s great I mean we can’t change what’s going to happen to the Earth but we can change about where we go and how we are able to survive on this Earth so that’s a biggie how we are able to supply alright I’ll take 40 bucks so I know I don’t I don’t even have a website but anyway yeah give a $40 to her urban survival so that he can continue redistributing the information of how to survive especially in the urban and I live in the rule and there’s people who did live in the way back and now but anyway yeah if you’re going to survive if you’re not doing it now it won’t work later so you have to be doing something now that works don’t don’t wait until the last minute and then say yeah I got it yeah you know we can do it I mean that works some of the time as long as you got other people that are receptive to the idea of allowing you to help them do what they already know that works self what’s it what’s the point of this conversation the point of this conversation is look up YouTube Anything You Can on sunflower seeds I mean they’re not going to feed you per se but what they do is they will make your day by disrupting the ground that you want to plant something into which brings all the nutrients from the top down to the bottom can you imagine planting the seed of corn and some clay and nothing happens you’re right but what you want to plant is sunflower seeds you know and plus if there was a volcano that went off yeah but mostly plants and trees have leaves that go upward and if the volcano Ash came down it would fall on the list but sunflower seeds sunflowers do not go up they go out in any direction and that direction because it’s it’s in a 90 degree angle will not accumulate the ash so that’s another positive for sunflower seeds and I guess the other positive will be hey at least you get to put something in your mouth to make you think you’re eating something and have you have a good time anyway yes I only use a half of a vitamin stock up on water filters but you know it depends on who you are where you’re at but that’s the most important thing is being able to you can eat from it because all you can eat you can eat and you can make to use a while I can’t get my coffee no more are you make tea from in Athens Tennessee for 5 month has gone by and everything’s down well the Weeds start coming out and all they start sprouting up around you and all the sudden you’re like hey let me try one of those weeds and see what happens and then you know if it’s good to go out well that’s okay didn’t hurt me making me a little buzzed there at 1 we’ll make some tea out of that so you can make some tea out of that before you know it you’re getting self-sufficient here off of things that are naturally grown on the Earth but that’s not going to happen when a volcano goes off because everything’s going to die unless you use sunflower seeds to get a whole bunch of plastic yeah if you want we can go out as the dust settles nothing is going to settle on your crops I mean your son is been reduced but you don’t have the app so now you have a big chance to survive tall is someone is already told you about it was the remote viewing project that show that the United States was going to be whatever and then we have the other one that guy from Iran to be completely surrounded with all military bases has the other options and an available and all all the things I thought he tells more about how the Earth is going to do what it does not cash it yet casha casha Foundation or something like that sounds good but you know I’ll still do what I do everyday and I don’t but if someone comes up with a better way up TFA I said yep he like you bi gay no I did not say bye Dad I said happy show video of the voice recognition is not picking up anywhere near what I’m saying right right yeah so I gotta get out there so you cannot depend on artificial intelligence or AI because it can be programmed to destroy you and take you out you know I hate like hey there’s no more of you left I mean that could be what the hey Art official intelligence can do it can go like well we got destroyed it all y’all there’s no more of y’all left so we achieve our goals so now we’ll move on to another planet but I have not giving you the two sites when was the case and it shows and tells about how the Earth especially this part of the earth North America and South America is attached by a small piece of land and as the Earth moves so will separate and all this stuff goes on so look at it and now the second thing I forgot what I was talking about is something about the bowgarts what was it the remote remote viewers yeah the remote viewers a look on that what’s his name I can’t remember and they’re predicting something will happen United States could be a meteorite or or it could be some bombs or could be something going to take out a big city and then Obama’s going to be up there in a lying his ass off telling her something and it’s not correct so yeah I mean the future is as we have already predicted it will be it will not be like anything that you would imagine unless you’re in that seat the cockpit of time travel

    • Bryce, Bryce. Paragraphs, please. Punctuation. Maybe a wee bit of coherentcy?

    • This is the thing, Hon, you gotta try to figure out exactly what you are trying to convey so that ‘we’ can absorb the essential nutrients in your ‘blow off top’ thesis. Dare I distill it: 5 gallon bucket of sunflower seeds; good. Weeds for tea, good. $40 Peoplenomics subscription, good. Voice recognition software, FAIL (please proofread before sending). Remote Viewing Project, BIG HUNK OF BURNING LOVE COMING, got it – Thank you!

    • LOL – Gawd I love smart readers…gold star for catching my “independent” humor, lol. Now back to the cold state please

  8. Unshackled from the need to be in DC in the Congress, it would be possible to expand the number of house members to what was originally planned as 1 house member for approx. 30,000 people. Since they set a limit on house membership, each member now represents closer to a million people, easy to drowned out the voices we don’t want to hear. That alone would change the dynamic.

    • With a ratio of 1 congressman per 30,000, the voices of rural counties would be heard in Congress, even Anderson County, Texas (population 58,000+).

      • You got it. That’s why they capped it in the first place, to keep a nice number of bodies that need to be bought each election. Even 100K per congressman, there would still be over 3K representatives. Gerrymandering would be a thing of the past as we would have representatives who truly reflected the personality of their district.

    • Skip to the chase, give up the crony representative republic and grow up to a true democracy. All laws be referendum and voted on by the people of purple thumbs (reference and answer to voter fraud).

      • Reference and partial answer. The voters still need to be citizens and prove-ably so.