Sorry About That Gold Prediction

I don’t make the future.

I just report it, although often before it gets here.

Easy enough to do:  All you need is proprietary software (as used on our www.nostracodeus.com website), a sense of how to read charts using just three main tools:  Trend channels, MACD, and Elliott wave theory.

And a long-term commitment to working the problem every day, looking for big changes in how the world operates.

Oh, and the next time Janet Yellen says “stocks are over-priced” – or words to that effect – realize that Janet may not be speaking just for herself.  She may be announcing something on behalf of the G20 central banksters.

The whole world is adrift when it comes to values, of course.

You can see that in the sale of fetal tissue, in the mass marketing of gender change, and in the pabulum called politics where the only person with normal testosterone levels seems to be The Don.  (And maybe Lindsey Where’s my hammer Graham, now…)

So how has gold done since our column last week when we warned of a serious move toward $1,000 gold?  (You can read last Thursday’s forecast piece here.)

As you can see in the chart over here, gold was around $1,143 when I made the prediction.  Immediately thereafter – a day or two – every pundit in the world jumped on the bandwagon and started throwing gold darts all over the board.  Including one who (stupidly I think) called for $250 gold.

As of this morning, the spot market was around $1,080.  In other words, since my prediction of a decline 8-days ago, gold has dropped a little more than 5%.

We can look at some of the other commodities out there *(yes, gold is a commodity kids) to see how other goods are fairing.

Bitcoins dropped from from the $288 range down to $276.  That’s worth mentioning because this is the only planet in the known universe where a digital signature performs better than a precious metal with a 10,000 year history.  And Bitcoins are bouncing strongly this morning…up to the $284 range.

On the other hand, copper is tanking in a serious way.

My consigliore called t’other day and suggested I line up the S&P and the price of copper over the long-term because there is a relationship there. 

I would do that for you this morning except a) I am too lazy and b) everyone knows that an imminent collapse of the economy is NOT why copper is dropping.

OK, wise guy, why then?

Two reasons:  First is that growth is falling.  Well, I guess we really can’t call it growth then, can we?  Seriously?  The imports through our ports and the latest rail traffic data, which we summarized for our Peoplenomics.com readers, showed there is no growth in physical goods to speak of.  Like none.

The second reason for copper’s decline is Iran.

That’s because one of the major commodities used in wars (hint: think shell casings, please) is copper. 

You may not like the Iran deal, and I think it’s stupid beyond belief to sell inspections with 21-days of notice so they can play “hide the centrifuges” is absurd,  but Barack Obama is determined to do for foreign policy what he’s done for trade (with that secret disaster) and what he’s done for the border (that other disaster).

The fact is that this is not a Treaty per se.  It’s a “something else” and the occupant of that high rent place on Pennsylvania Avenue is going to implement whether the Fools on the Hill like it, or not.  And that’s just the way it’s going to be, kiddies.

You see, we don’t live in an honest country, anymore.  That’s why The Don is so popular.  He’s calling BS where he sees it…which means he’s got a wide variety of targets that people are ticked off about.

And the phony corporate parties?  You know…..the ones who buy and sell favors for campaign contributions from the sleazy big law firms in Washington infested with lobbyists?  They are being cast as losers – which they are – and when the peaceful revolution in America back toward clear thinking happens at the polls, the mainstream media will bemoan the loss of their paymasters.

Except, of course, it will never happen.

Voting machines.  Right?

The Real Battle is in Austin

There, Dr. Laura Pressley lost a contested city council race a while back.  Thinking December of 2014 was when this first popped.  And she is appealing a court decision that sided with local elections officials who produced an electronic record, but not statutorily required images of ballots in the contest.

Pressley’s June 15 press release on point explains it this way:

When Pressley asked Travis County to produce statutorily required “images of ballots cast” from the Hart InterCivic voting machines for the recount, the clerk was unable to produce the ballot images that voters saw in the election booth. Instead, what she received were Cast Vote Records (CVRs), which are computer-generated templates of tabulated votes — not the statutorily required ballot images required for manual recounts of electronic voting machines.

CVRs do not contain the legal components of an official Texas ballot, such as the election name and date, each candidate’s name, voting squares, and a unique serial number as defined by the Texas Constitution,” Pressley said. “Without these voter-marked ballot records, how can we conduct a statutorily valid recount?”

Anyone who has struggled through management school knows there is a huge danger in computers and tech that few speak of:  The data is never questioned.  And, Pressley’s point is that an image of a voter marked ballot is not the same thing as a data file which anyone can make up.

So it will be interesting to watch, although Texas is not particularly inclined to offer traceable election results.  So the website www.standwithlaura.com is trying to round up a few bucks to keep the legal moves pressing forward.

It will be an important precedent.  The reason being that we could very well end up with an election in 2016 where the role of electronic voting machines could literally bring America to the verge of revolution.

Yet the vested powers – the corporate parties, which operate a “move up through the chairs” kind of franchise, are very likely to figure out that The Don is on the verge of getting the Tea Party, moderates from both the democorps and the republicorps, and as a result he could ruin their franchise.

When we are reading this week how a hacker was able to take over control of a Jeep at 10 miles, how hard do you think hacking voting machines really is?  Fortune has a good follow-on article about the Jeep hack over here, by the way.

Still Grabbing for Guns

Meantime, about the renter on Pennsylvania Ave. I see where his latest is to whine about not being able to implement gun control.

To be sure, this comes as another nutter opened fire in a theater in Louisiana and killed three, wounded 9 or so,  them killed himself.

We don’t yet know the name of the gunman, but we’ll be anxious to see whether the shooter will fall into any of the profiles we watch: Young and taking psychotropic drugs, jihadist Muslim, or just a troubled kid reading Catcher in the Rye   On this last, the website Atomic Poet notes:

“After Mark David Chapman shot and killed John Lennon, he calmly opened up Catcher in the Rye and proceeded to read it — before being apprehended. John Hinckley, the man who attempted to kill Ronald Reagan, also was in possession of the book. It is also alleged Lee Harvey Oswald was quite fond of the book, though this is disputed.”

Wikipedia has much more over here.

I must have missed my anti-cynicism pill this morning.

Friday For the Truly Paranoid

Try this deeperweb search of nagalase…and when you’ve researched GcMAF a bit, you may infer the reason why the big press for mandatory vaccination laws.  Not saying that’s the right inference, but it’s the right research to go sniffing about….

The Real American Defense Issue

While the Imperial One wrings his hands over guns, (and those troublesome Rights)  we received a briefing from our defense correspondent “warhammer” this morning that’s quite disturbing:

As a student of warfare throughout history, I give failing marks to those charged with leading America and concurrently protecting her security.  On the other hand, the Chinese are proving themselves consistently worthy of A+ grades.

<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/23/entire-us-national-security-system-possibly-compromised-by-year-long-cyber/?intcmp=latestnews>

What strikes me about the recent disclosure of the massive OPM hack is the depth and breadth of its potential harm.  In a series of deft maneuvers, the Dragon State pulled off an world class intelligence coup.  The tentacles of this operation embrace facets of operations, strategies and personnel that allow China to operate at an ‘information advantage’ over the U.S. for a decade or more to come.

What impresses me the most is how neatly the hack fits in with millennia old wisdom first offered by the Chinese military general, Sun Tzu.  He lived from 544-497 BC.  One of the most famous quotes from Sun Tzu involves the use of deception, upon which the general believed all warfare should be based:

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable;

    When using our forces, we must seem inactive;

    When we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away;

    When far away, we must make him believe we are near.

And so out of the pages of history a classic Sun Tzu tactic materializes.  Perhaps the most relevant of his instructions are these:

Attack him where he is unprepared; appear where you are not expected.

. . . and . . .

Your opponent is unprepared because you have deceived him. He does not expect you because you have irritated him, made him arrogant, and denied him the rest required for him to regain his senses and reconsider his vulnerable position.

So, this is how it feels to “be had” by those who take espionage and warfare seriously!

Cheers,

Not that it will be seen, yet, because we continue awash in the Selfie Society:

Take the People Magazine report “Medical Student Posted Delivery Room Selfie Next to Woman’s Vagina on Instagram.”

Maybe someone in Washington should focus less on guns and more on society-wide insanity such as Bison attacks woman taking selfie with it – CNET and Six Flags bans selfie sticks – Business Insider.

Rest Up For Next Week

We have a huge amount of data about to fly in our faces starting Monday with the Durable Goods report. 

The Fed meeting starts Tuesday and remember we will have a two-part report Tuesday – the regular update and then a “special” as the Case-Shiller, S&P Housing Report comes out.

Wednesday will feature the Fed decision on interest rates – which they won’t raise, but they will shake a mighty ink cartridge at the problem.  The rate hike will come this fall, as we read it.

Thursday will feature the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, but I reckon a check of your bank statement will answer that one in advance.  And Friday has the employment cost index which is useful if you run a small business.

Comments

Sorry About That Gold Prediction — 7 Comments

  1. The drop in gold prices was an obvious manipulation done in the wee hours of monday morning, just before the Chinese market opened. It had nothing to do with real value.

  2. The shooter in Louisiana is a 59 year-old white male . . . possibly conservative, tea party type, but definitely ‘drifter’.

  3. I think it’s old news by now and consensus by most people with more than average activity in their cranium that Donald Trump is a side show…Lyndsey Graham said it best when he described the Trump hype like a ” political car wreck that people slow down and watch”. It is bothersome therefore that he is leading in some polls. Could this be a sign of a zombie apocalypse? Not if the other candidates have their way.

    I recently heard a theory on talk radio that Trump and his lunacy is making the other GOP candidates look less crazy. Could this be a GOP strategy to finally unite the contentious party? After 8 years of infighting and unrelenting divisiveness with Obama, the candidates are actually showing signs of unity, and agreeing that Trump is a bonafide nightmare…not only for the parties reputation, but for the entire nation.

    It does blow my mind that there are people actually listening to this clown. But then, these are probably the same people that watch the Kardashians, Honey Boo Boo and the fraudulent Duck Dynasty gang. It’s entertainment…and not real…it is just that there are actually folks out there that really think these reality shows ARE reality, and Trump and his antics are just an extension of that. He should know..His show, The Apprentice was one of them.

  4. The problem with humans thinking that ‘possession of a new gadget’ gives them the right to use it in inappropriate ways/places is not a new phenomena – my awareness of this came when the Christmas after my husband died – my sister showed my other sister (and her family and in-laws, and myself) a tape of an operation that my second sister had had, via a second camera she had specifically placed to catch her reaction. (Gee so much fun watching ‘candid’ reactions! Not!)

    Then first sister proceeded to show film of Christmas when everyone was still alive – which was good (painful but good) until I noticed that my (now ex) brother-in-law was not in view. I found him taking my picture via video camera, and I decided to ignore the film and look at the idiot and consider my next move. The fool was always complaining that people didn’t respect him . . . ‘I wonder why . . .’

    About three seconds from me making sure that he was wearing his camera IN his face – he stopped filming, and I said good-bye to everyone and left without comment as showing that I was upset would have given them ‘power’.

    Back one hundred and sixty years ago – people were shocked at the scenes of death during the Civil War. Usually considered ‘ground-breaking’ because of the use of photography, Mathew Brady and his ilk, may have also offended people because he showed not only the ugly reality of war, but also exposed something ‘private’- and perhaps death hasn’t been the same ever since . . .

  5. Maybe the Louisiana shooter actually considers himself part of a “well regulated militia” since he’s been registered with Tea Party Nation with a profile page for a couple of years. But hey, he was gun shopping in a state with ‘will issue’ laws and no intent of ever reporting mental illness to the national database.

  6. “So, this is how it feels to “be had” by those who take espionage and warfare seriously!” Tell me – who besides ISIS is taking warfare seriously – well – the Kurds – but they are an exception. Certainly NONE of the U.S. military or their CIC.

  7. Of course, he hasn’t actually tried to “grab” anyone’s guns, just to make getting them a bit more difficult for one of your favorite groups — the psychotropic druggies. But why not include the wife-beaters in your watch list? They kill a lot more innocent Americans (almost exclusively with “legal” guns) than all the jihadist attacks combined.

    Why not just call the mayhem last night in Lafayette another unfortunate side effect of insane interpretation of the Second Amendment in Heller?