Something Beyond Vegas

Terrible as the killer rampage in Las Vegas was Sunday night, there is often a tendency when a “big event” has just shocked the nation to ignore a lot of other stories going on in background.  It’s like a “flash-in-the-pan” that arrests the national attention.

So instead of a list of videos, eyewitness accounts, and such, we’ve already made out look-ahead Monday (on the future of public gatherings) so today we’re scanning for what is usually a bigger story going on in background.

There are bigger stories, in our view, that shouldn’t be missed:  The Spanish government’s crackdown on Catalonia which voted to withdraw from Spanish rule; the coming pension collapse crisis in the USA and worldwide.  Plus, it goes without saying, the ongoing super bubble in the stock market fed by a Federal Reserve that orchestrates printing without end.

(Continues below)

 

So while America mourns, the outlook scans the horizon for what’s to come next.

Spain.

Catalonia vote: Spain’s biggest crisis for a generation says the BBC.

The real questions are a) what will Spain do to acknowledge the vote, b) what will the EU do to Spain for failure to acknowledge the vote and c) what will the US do to the EU and Spain for failing to free the Catalans?

Seems simple enough; we hope our worst-case outcome (another Spanish revolution) doesn’t come to pass.  But it’s axiomatic that those in power don’t easily share power.

The old fire-house term was, I believe, “overly in charge.”  Which is how Spain is playing it.  Badly.

Pensions

The next economy (the PAYG Economy) is up for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.  But one of the baseline concepts that will drive is the coming (worldwide) collapse of pension funds.  Check out some of these headlines:

This last is pretty interesting – and here’s why:  Know what the 10-year note was yielding 10 years ago?  April Fools Day 2007 the 10-year was pumping out 5.03%.

The real problem is not looking in the rearview and going off on a self-congratulatory spin.  Rather, it is looking steely-eyed toward the future.

In the meantime, as the markets come to terms with last weekend’s Peoplenomics perspective (“What’s left to buy?”) we expect that the pension collapse will be a worldwide affair that may be the leading edge of the DDA – the Digital Dark Ages.

That’s what to expect when there are disappearing jobs, disappearing energy (depletion never sleeps, OM2 reminds us), and robots are there to take up everything that isn’t nailed down.

There are snips of the dark side of sci-fi coming if you look for it.  Venture Beat has this little gem: Robots can kill, but can they murder?  Sorry, but to us it’s one of those oh-d’uh headlines.  But shocking for the masses I suppose.

One of the reasons both the Internet Bubble Collapse (2002-2003) and the Housing bubble collapse (2008-2009) didn’t result in the descent into the New Dark Age was simply that the damage was confined to mostly one country – ours.

This pension mess, though, is a global deal.  Again, when pension payouts are based on long-term average returns (historically) in the 7 percent range, when the real returns are sinking below five (and the 10 year T-note closed yesterday at 2.337%), it’s only a matter of time until the worse-case pension outlooks of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation come to pass.

The key difference is that there will not be pools of “hot money” coming in from offshore to help with the bounce back to profitability.  Because this time, when the global pensions go bust, it will suck up the money that’s out there (and then some) so that we will have no choice but to hyper-inflate our way out of it, just as Mexico did way back when with the Nuevo Peso.

Forgot about the New Peso, did we?

“Throughout most of the 20th century, the Mexican peso remained one of the more stable currencies in Latin America, since the economy did not experience periods of hyperinflation common to other countries in the region. However, after the Oil Crisis of the late 1970s, Mexico defaulted on its external debt in 1982, and as a result the country suffered a severe case of capital flight, followed by several years of inflation and devaluation, until a government economic strategy called the “Stability and Economic Growth Pact” (Pacto de estabilidad y crecimiento económico, PECE) was adopted under President Carlos Salinas. On January 1, 1993 the Bank of Mexico introduced a new currency, the nuevo peso (“new peso”, or MXN), written “N$” followed by the numerical amount. One new peso, or N$1.00, was equal to 1000 of the obsolete MXP pesos.

On January 1, 1996, the modifier nuevo was dropped from the name and new coins and banknotes – identical in every respect to the 1993 issue, with the exception of the now absent word “nuevo” – were put into circulation. The ISO 4217 code, however, remained unchanged as MXN.

Thanks to the stability of the Mexican economy and the growth in foreign investment, the Mexican peso is now among the 15 most traded currency units in recent years.

At the uber-macro level, we should have a nice decline for an ultra longwave IV in the 2018 timeframe and then the final wave V into the war in 2024.

In this last bubble, oil will go to the moon (because we are in a hold to new drilling because of price now – that will go the other way as we work through the glut and then we will get the squeeze until new resource is found, though at a much higher price) and so will gold, silver, farm land, and such because only those things with genuine value will be meaningful in a hyper inflating world.

By the way, it would be an instructive economic forecast to look at 2025 pension problems of China, Europe, and Russia because we know the U.S. pensions will be blowing up by then.  Why, the glory of a world of blown-up pensions is just a marvel.

Lots of people won’t see it – 7-8 years is admittedly a long way up the track, but you can hear the train coming from here.

And as far-sighted pensions begin to scale back bennies, there goes a major engine of the over-played economy which then collapses demand and as that goes, so does everything else, especially services which is what, 95% of the American economy now?

We will get fresh data at the end of the week but as of last month 153,439,000 people were employed in ‘Mercia (not counting government).

104-million and change were in services while 20-million and change were making goods and of these just 12.5-million were in manufacturing.  So about one person in 8 makes a thing in the factory sense.

Meanwhile the Fed is pumping money out fast as they can – and the result as we explained recently would be markets going to the moon – while the pumping and the cleanup of their balance sheet at the Fed continues.

So how did we do that prediction?

Global shares score latest record high, dollar flexes muscle.”

Asian shares shrug off energy blues after Wall Street records.”

What can I say?

Tom Petty Is Dead: Let’s Monetize Tom Petty

Which is how Ure favorite cynic views stories like ‘Those Records Live Forever.’ Here’s How Celebrities Are Reacting to Tom Petty’s Death.

 

Yep:  Reacting to a death is, once again, arguably the famous trying to monetize.

Econ Data:

Confidence in U.S. Economy Dips  to +4 in September says the new Gallup data out this morning.

BTC’s are running $4,290’ish.

And the Dow futures are looking for  +35 at the open, so another day of records may be coming…wouldn’t surprise us in the least.

Peoplenomics tomorrow “The PAYG Economy” and more here on the free side of things Thursday.  Ne well and don’t be long for long, lol.


Comments

Something Beyond Vegas — 33 Comments

    • The truth will never come out just like the Kennedy assassination.
      When experts line up and say repeatedly that there’s no way a skilled marxman could do precision shots like that in the time frame it took.
      Similarly with Vegas you see the stories of the woman forty-five minutes prior running through the crowd saying everyone was going to die. The sheer number of people dead or wounded in a seven minute range from an unskilled mediocre gun user.
      Professionals that have all said there isn’t any way.
      Other hotel patrons saying there was more than one..
      Just prior to the horrific events he was doing things that indicates he had future plans.. he didn’t fit any of the criteria that would indicate he’d be a threat to anyone.
      To many questions no answers..yet within a blink of an eye we see lobbying firms pushing for gun control… Similar things like with the terrorist biological threat to members of Congress the postal department.. that seemed to only target one faction of Congress.. shortly after the Patriot act was passed eliminating a lot of our constitutional rights..
      So the question is this a horrific act by a sick mind ( well that’s obvious) or a planned out act by a group wishing to be able to gain some sort of control like a certain country did in WW2.. we will never know for sure.. I am willing to bet there will be a few theories on the subject though

      • Oh the biological threat with components that were tracked back to a secured government biological weapons storage.
        Just saying .. if it smells like cow dung don’t expect it to taste like chocolate

    • If there is something truly fishy, never.

      Apparent muzzle flashes from below floors may well be reflections from the 34th floor. Unless the authorities publicly confirm that the lower-floor windows were indeed closed, there’ll be conspiracy theories galore, regarding multiple shooters and/or frameups, black swans, and so on…

      The folks in Vegas were lucky. 563 casualties, where the perp is essentially shooting packed humans in a barrel for (I have heard everything from 9 to 12 minutes) and using a weapon which is apparently firing (my guess, from the few seconds of witness vids I’ve heard) at between 480 and 550 rounds per minute is an appalling hit rate into a target which can’t easily be missed — means about 1 shot in 12 scored.

      IMO this would be perfectly consistent with a retired chair polisher who’d little experience with firearms, and quite similar to the RNC baseball shooter. The nutjob in Norway who killed those 70-some schoolchildren a few years back only fired, I believe, 93 shots.

      The things I will be looking for:

      Window type and composition – Can they be opened? If not, are they “anti-suicide” or “hurricane” glass, and are they antiglare?

      Firearms forensics report – How many guns were fired and what were their caliber(s)?

      Where, EXACTLY, was the girlfriend when this was going on? Where were her associates, and their associates…?

      Network “News” tonight referred to the shooter as a “multimillionaire.” If the dude had a 7 or 8 figure bankroll, why’d he only give the GF $100k, since he obviously had no exit strategy? Who gets the rest of the green (and where were THEY…?)

      I’m still trying to avoid the flood of misinformation. The Clark County Sheriff is being really careful to not say anything dumb, and there’s no loose cannon in the White House to fan flames where there should never even have been a spark so, while most information will be suppressed, I have hopes that the stuff which IS officially released, will be accurate…

      • Not to mention this all happened in Vegas hotel casino.. these places are probably the most secure places besides fort Knox and the.pentagon.. what about the video did he stay at hotel or go home there was a pickup load of ammo and guns was he seen hauling it in.. or even staying there. Did someone just pay him to rent the room him sending the money to avoid taxes. To many questions and the only one to answer them is gone. His girlfriend didn’t try to avoid authority she rushed home to see what in the heck was going on his brother baffled and hurt..

  1. Can an American travel safely to Europe these days? I’d like to take a family trip there before it becomes impossible.

    • Yes you can — but, for what reason? Europe are very different countries that all try to mix and match — not for the better, IMHO!!

    • Sure – seems like an US server glitch but PN was up on schedule over on the PN site today – fixed glitch now available via urban…

  2. I wrote this several weeks ago, and was waiting for a place to post it… ‘guess it’s not so off-topic, now:
    __________________

    I thought I’d take this opportunity to mention something completely off-topic, which perhaps only my cynical mind can see…

    Two weeks ago, I was in Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, and Detroit (and about a dozen cities in-between.) Last week I was in Grand Rapids, Lansing, Ft. Wayne, Indianapolis, Louisville, and Lexington (and about a dozen cities in-between.) Somewhere between Indy and Derbytown, it occurred to me:

    Every metro area I’ve driven through over at least the past year is really screwed-up WRT traffic patterns. Every place has major throughway roads that’re under reconstruction or missing bridges, and are not only “untravelable,” but in many cases, uncrossable.

    Does anyone besides me view this lack of viable thoroughfare availability as potential “chokepoints” and “killzones?”

  3. Don’t know if you read the article in the DMN but one of the oil companies in the Permian Basin has put their recent discovery of oil between 70 and 90 billion barrels. That’s a lot of oil.

    • I have a friend that delivers supplies to one of the oil fields. The subject of oil shortages came up in a discussion and one of the engineers walked over and grabbed a sample of the oil change oming out of the well.. he said this is what we are pumping estimates are that this well could potentially Supply the USA for fifty to a hundred years at current consumption levels.. then he said they are making us cap this well till a future date..
      So yes I believe what you heard could be true..it’s all a business model..
      And questionably..why do they have to drill anyway.
      We produce enough waste products that can be converted back to their original structure efficiently and inexpensive in one day to supply the us with fuel for years..
      But then that’s just my humble opinion

  4. Was reading 0Hedge, came across this name w/ a link (LAbNFEtv)was the user id that posted a warning on an anonymous board. Also interesting videos where gun fire and flashes don’t sync. It doesn’t add up. The guy’s profile, the missing 19 guns. You don’t need to post this, just thought I would share.

    • I am assuming by gun fire you mean the sound of the shot? My question back to you would be why you believe the gun flashes and the sound on the video should match up? The shooter was on the 32nd floor. Call that 320 feet. With a notional 30 degree look up angle in the video, trigonometry tells us that is 740 feet away. Sound travels at around 1100 feet a second. The flashes should precede the sound by a two thirds to three quarters of a second. Also, the Vegas Strip is an example of an urban canyon. You would expect multiple echoes per shot off multiple buildings.

      • Just wondering, can flashes come from the 4th floor with gun shots fired from the 32nd? Maybe that is in the law of physics.

  5. If you lived in Africa if you lived in Africa and there was a tiger or leopard Lion was dividing your community would you stand by or would you get together as a community and get rid of that threat

    • how to drive a cat Wild at least for about 30 seconds.

      Open a can of some kind of fish product but don’t open it all the way just crack it you know just make it so the can opener just makes a dent in it and so they smell it wow what’s in the wild I like we know there’s something in there and they start calling raking striking and they pull the tab there to like we know it’s in there we smell this sucker this is going good stuff this is the stuff we like why don’t you make it happen but the only way you going to do that I understand there’s a bigger cat hangover

      • so I did a 3 minute radiation test on it and it’s like 0.120 I guess that stuff that I got was not too bad it’s normal I’m back in 2012 oh and it was mustard sardines at mustard really taste good at least it set it off good

      • Lol the only radiation test my food gets is when I start the microwave to nuke it till it’s hot and ready to eat…
        I won’t buy any fish the wild caught from the Pacific though

  6. In the same vein as Scott above:
    I spent 15 years making nerve agent gas disappear, rather than making, I was unmaking.
    used the same kind of industrial equipment, and as much work, for a negative result.
    Where does that place me.
    At least my negatives were lower than Congress (I think).

  7. I Seriously question that 158 million number. There are 95 million adults not working in the USA. There are also several million government workers at all levels.

    • I am curious how many have dropped off the rosters. A few years ago we list our sole source of income for a year.. that’s when we were told by job service that between the age of fifty and sixty five it’s almost impossible to locate work. If your a professional the assumption is your going to leave also you have obligations where someone younger doesn’t. Even heard the reason was you’ve been with the same employer for more than two decades.. we want someone with a broader job experience.
      And unemployment is almost ninety percent denied..

  8. As many as 10 rifles were found in his hotel room… but only one shooter?
    As with many orchestrated shootings, the scapegoat was murdered before he could talk
    Why are there no muzzle flashes visible from the 32nd-floor Mandalay Bay windows in any of the videos that captured the shooting?
    Why does the gunfire in online videos clearly sound like automatic weapons fire from MULTIPLE weapons?
    ISIS has openly claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that Paddock “converted to Islam” months earlier
    Stephen Paddock had no familiarity with automatic weapons and no military training; was not a “gun guy”
    How does a 64-year-old accountant with no military training possess the strength and stamina to fire a fully automatic weapon for nearly 10 minutes?
    The attack required meticulous planning, funding and training… it wasn’t some lone senior citizen who just “snapped”

  9. So, if you had 1,000,000 pesos and you got N$1.00 for each 1000 old pesos, you in essence could not even buy back the house you sold the year before. There is a warning here for us all.

    Then…Time to think about, “what is it you can do that people will need when ‘services’ collapse?” Plenty of time to put in a back up plan.

    My other comment is, have you seen the videos showing the gunfire from the 4th floor? Maybe it is a strobe light timed to gun fire (No, I am not making fun or mocking anyone)!

  10. “But it’s axiomatic that those in power don’t easily share power”–share power?? Everyone is in it for him/her self–and we put them there, because we (voters) are too stupid!! Let’s face it: The few leaders, during the last 100 years, that ever cared for their nation are to-day the most maligned politicians ever. Are we smart?

  11. Yeah, what troubled ME was the fact that she told the crowd “THEY are all around you, prepare to f—ing die”. Um, that plural thing… We were only told about ONE shooter. The whole scenario stinks to high heaven in my opinion. Another false flag?, but planned by WHO? Seems like the government is the most likely, sad to say…

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