So: Wall Street Got My Memo

In our www.peoplenomics.com newsletter Wednesday we set out some target windows in 2017 for the stock market to make its new All-Time Highs and be done with the generally rally that has been underway since the depths of the Great Depression.

I explained that there are several factors that will push things along. But, already this morning we can see an outline of the bondholder community beginning to get a little, oh, shall we say “nervous?”

For example, there was a German bond sale this week and the bonds were sold with a negative yield.

In addition, we see that the interest (poor pun, sorry) has been piqued in “emerging currency bonds.” Places like South Africa to Russia get mentioned in this report.

The problem with emerging market bonds (EMBs) is that they can be like holding a stick of dynamite which is lit at both ends. (We will take the discussion of the need of caps offline – this is just a mental imagine, not an ordinance course).

On the one end, the EMB might deliver a pretty good interest rate. But at the other, the FOREX market is hardly a stable place. So if you buy into an EMB you might be able to make a 6% nominal yield on the underlying, but if the Forex market turns screwy and the exchange rate drops 5%, what you you gained?

Correct answer: Not a lot. And what’s more, there is the MUCH larger risk when you take money out of the country. So we will stay the course to our modest triple levered gains in the US and be satisfied with tracking 22.9% annualized, ex-commissions. It still beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick and I’ve had plenty of those here lately so I do claim some expertise.

The U.S. Market, that I still expect to explode up when the bond bottom is passing, is up 160 Dow points in the futures market.

Tomorrow: Mammoth Friday

This morning’s column will be blissfully short because there is just so damn much news that will be rattling around tomorrow it may change up how markets look. (Cowardly profit taking is possible. But he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day, I hear).

Let’s see:

  • There is the Consumer Price Index,
  • Retail Sales
  • Empire State manufacturing
  • Industrial production and utilization from the Fed.

Strap on a Depend and come on by.

Veep Bleep Bleep Bleep Yeah

(So, not up on Beetle’s riffs, are we?  Just an awareness check, sorry.  You’re excused if under 30.)

Oh – and then we will see how Donald Trump goes with the VP pick.

I think Newt would be my pick. First because he knows everyone from God on down. And secondly because he is a thinker who would make a fine president of the senate. He might actually read legislation – which would set about a refreshing change in DC.

The Indy Gov is a great guy, don’t get me wrong. But to me he’s more like chief of staff material, but I’m hardly an apprentice. Michael Flynn for SecDef…unlike most pundits, I don’t see the Trump moves as singular dimensions. Media apes (and apettes) tend to think little and linear when someone like Trump interviews four people that there will be only one “winner.”

I’m guessing, from reading his book on deal-making, that what he may be up to would be something like a SLATE being announced tomorrow. Chris Christy for Attorney General? Likely not enough prosecutorial experience, but running one of the complex Fedocracies? You bet.

Since Trump is not a “known” quantity – and like Pinocchio “ain’t got no strings on me” I think he could do something dramatic like this and pull it off.

Announcing a few key cabinet level appointments AND the VP at the same time would overshadow the Hillary announcement because he would be presenting the full meal deal instead of the quarter pounder.

But we shall see…that’s just how I see him playing it. You’d see a whole slate and that would let him jump the Clinton camp in checkers-like style. That would also leave him free to strike solely at issues until November while Hil et al would be trying to parcel out their hints and such.

It would change the game in that you could see what kind of government you’d be getting well in advance…and each of the department heads would be able to hone in and garner facetime now rather than the laborious old-line party playbook of the same old parceled out bullship.

Can you imagine Flynn being able to work policy and snipe at Ash Carter from now to November? Or Newt slugging at grandpa Joe? Pence deftly prepositioning everything including transition planning and policy development plus working on staff appointments so the whole thing unwraps like a Christmas present?

Fake drama has got to go sometime…it’s really a matter of who in politics will get there first.

I like to think Trump is unconventional enough to do it…but that gets answered Friday.

But after the leadership gap since Kennedy, innovation would be a fine house warming gift for America.

Meantime, however, perhaps republicans never change their stripes: Anti-Trump folks are still trying to derail the popular Trump by fiddling with Convention rules. If they succeed, it makes the Crooked Party concept more valid. Or, the Party Deaf to the People…which now that I think about it, is all of them, so far.

Aw…it’s hoping too much, I know.

Falling Down: The Hil

Hillary, meantime, is tripping over her own reputation…even though she wasn’t under oath when questioned by the FBI which is why Comey should be polishing his resume. In case the apparent high bidder loses. Are the sheep waking, or just dreaming?

Lots of questions linger about why the Comey FBI probers were forced to sign special non-disclosures. Which sounds like leak plugging, to me. Perhaps some future grand jury….

Bombs In Space

Our military affairs expert “warhammer” noticed that the Russians are making flanking moved again…

Russia is claiming to have a new bomber in development which can launch nukes from space:

http://sputniknews.com/military/20160713/1042888473/russia-space-bomber-engine.html 

While the aircraft/spacecraft sounds impressive, the mission it is designed for is 50 years behind the power curve.

Air breathing vehicles are much, much easier to track, even the stealthy ones these days, especially the higher they fly. Orbital vehicles from several nations are equipped with radar, cameras and infra-red sensors designed to detect items exiting or entering our atmosphere (IR sensors pick up the heat of high-velocity vehicles). Strategic air defenses would have almost two hours to track and attack aircraft like the Russian one being touted by their Strategic Missile Forces.

So while the Ruskies may brag, their strategic thinking lags. They are throwing their money away on an outdated concept.

There is one economic reality WH didn’t mention, though:  Maybe, like the present-day US, you use the military and defense community as a big adjustable-stimulus tool.  Remember, they are parallel working on advances in teleportation by 2035.

ZIKA and Yee Shall Find

All of 282 cases in Florida, so far. 

At least that’s the buzz…

I have always held an admittedly morbid fascination with how news stories become math games.  First place I noticed it was in body counts from Vietnam back during coverage of that.

But hell, that’s the American Media Game, isn’t it?  Numeralize and monetize!

Victims of our own lofty ideals.  But it’s easy to dance to and sheep like easy steps, best of all.

Take a number and come back tomorrow. Or, don’t BAHther.

Comments

So: Wall Street Got My Memo — 27 Comments

  1. “Since Trump is not a “known” quantity –”

    What we do know about Trump is his proven ability to pick the right people to accomplish amazing projects. A vital skill for the POTUS.

  2. Ever feel like a musical instrument ? You know, like your being played…

  3. Both Newt and Christy have too much baggage, even if it’s circumstantial. Also dislike Newt for supporting a RINO over a Tea Party candidate in upstate NY. I would have preferred someone like Susana Martinez but Mike Penz is solid.

  4. First of all Trump never wrote Art of the Deal. The Donald can’t string three words together that aren’t “Me”, “I”, and….”I” again and again. http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/09/15/3701215/donald-trump-talks-funny-2/.
    Second, Newt Gingrich did want to talk about his divorce while his wife was in the hospital being treated for cancer. All the while he was womanizing…The man had a reputation that makes Bill Clinton look like a choir boy.

    Third…please get off of the Trump bandwagon…Like the people that are endorsing him…Hulk Hogan, Charlie Sheen, The Duck Dynasty guy, Mike Tyson etc…his VP and ‘kitschy” Cabinet hopefuls are all Has-Beens and losers. Is Hillary the answer? No…But is the world that horrible right now? No…I am wealthier than I have ever been in my life…Thanks to the market and some good sage advice from Peoplenomics. Will Hillary keep the engine running? Yes…Can I live with that? Yes…Can I live with an intolerable jerk like Trump? Hell no. Will the rest of the world leaders tolerate Trump? Hell no…Will the markets tolerate a Trump presidency? Hell no.

    I know one thing…I am trying to wrap my arms around understanding Gary Johnson now…Quirky guy…but has some good success in New Mexico…so…look at his new campaign video…Not terrible…..http://youtu.be/LGD8gJt7weU

    • I have to comment on my comment…when the least terrible candidate nor the most powerful nation on earth is a pot smoking ex-governor…well…what has happened to our country?

  5. There are two factors that matter most in selecting a VP:

    1. The VP must be at least as competent in carrying on the duties of the presidency as the president, for the good and even the survival of the nation.

    2. The VP must be even more aligned with the basic principles of the president, so that there’s little incentive for either a political impeachment or assassination, and lots of incentive against letting those events happen. Biden is the ultimate foil in this regard – if Obama was to go away, then Biden would continue the same awful policies, with perhaps even less competence in the few areas that the current POTUS gets by in.

    In Trump’s case, I’d want the VP to be an accomplished and daring entrepreneur and businessman. Someone with the same low inhibition and business/social intelligence, along with courage of his convictions.

    The classic mistake in choosing a VP is to think that the president will always survive and remain competent, and choose a VP as a complementary personality to help with attracting more votes for the election, or to pacify insiders or pay off favors.

    • You said.”Someone with the same low inhibition and business/social intelligence, along with courage of his convictions.”

      Are you saying Trump has those qualities? Are you serious? He is possibly the dumbest guy on this planet WITHOUT the “horror” of him possibly being a presidential candidate.

      How can you justify an egotistical Wanker like him as president? He has no business sense…unless of course you think someone who has been sued or involved in lawsuits 3,500 times, has been named in 169 Federal lawsuits, and whose corporations have filed for Chapter 11 four times is considered a businessman. Ask his creditors on each of those bankruptcies, how they feel about him.

      To describe him having social intelligence is sort of an oxymoron as well. He is socially a socio-path and I am not sure anyone who ever did business with him would describe him as intelligent. A bully? Yes…Smart? I doubt if Trump can spell the word.

      • WE get it Mark, you are on the Criminal Hillary Band Wagon, playing the TUBA could you get off of it now.

  6. Old Russian technology. How about the Soyuz ( Souez ) Only way down from the space station. Tried and true, perfect to date. I won’t bore you with the rocket and engines that get you up there.

  7. The Russian Soyuz (souez)space vehicle has been around a long, long time. If you want to return from the space station ( and survive ) that’s going to be your ride. Worked then, works now.

  8. I’m going to be sick. Newt? Are you kidding? Didn’t they run him out of office because of ethics violations? Wasn’t he having an affair while the Clinton impeachment was going on? I remember his wife was in the hospital with cancer when he divorced her. Now I hear he turned Catholic. I’m surprised they let him. No way will we let him come near any sort of political office ever again.

  9. G, I tried to email you twice via your link, but both were undeliverable. So, I’m posting it here, I hope you don’t mind:
    G,

    You’ve discussed these before, but I can’t remember what you said you guys used in your home. As I am moving to a new-ish, but larger home (2500 sq ft, and has livable basement space), I thought I’d invest in one for my family. Could you take a look at this one I’m linking here and tell me if it’s like your own? I was shooting for worthy and under $200.

    Ionic Air Purifier & Ozone Generator – Covers 4000 Sq. Ft.

    https://healthandmed.com/ionic-air-purifier-ozone-generator-covers-4000-sq-ft.html?gdffi=cf161c0ccaa94295b24b31c9b0dfc1d9&gdfms=ADDA2C90AD514E4898757EA3C0AA4878&gclid=CNymvK6J880CFUk6gQodgLcO4w

    Any thoughts are appreciated, Thanks!

    • You can email me, if you don’t want to reply here or in a posting.

    • I would go for two smaller units to disperse effects more evenly
      Remember, ozone is hard on rubber products (thinking weather stripping and door seals and such)

  10. Very glad you touched on the EMBs as I told a friend yesterday almost the exact same thing…I likened FOREX to slightly better than binary options. It is nice to be validated by someone who is, if not older, probably wiser than me

  11. Newt?

    You may not think that recurrent marriages for either man are a problem, but I think it shows a lack of judgement – I had an aunt who was married four times, and while she was a quite intelligent person – asking her for relationship advise was NOT something I would have ever done.

    Getting remarried once is reasonable, more than that and you have to wonder what the hell is going on?? (Not to mention dumping someone while they are extremely ill . . . Newt is lacking in class!)

      • Nope, it was Newt. He either told her he wanted a divorce while she was seriously ill in a hospital or served her the papers while she was there. Totally inexcusable!

        Aside from that, Newt belongs to all the standard NWO groups, which makes him highly suspect as a VP, and also makes me wonder about Trump’s true leanings.

      • No, it was Newt . . . he had the divorce papers delivered to her hospital bed, while she was almost dying from cancer . . .

        McCain’s first wife (and he’s only been married twice) was married to him while he was young before being POW – neither was emotionally prepared for the ordeal – and they divorced after. I may have my differences with McCain’s policies and his actions, but I was thinking of voting for him seriously, until the Palin debacle – what a complete, and utter flake! (That did not show a considered judgement in my opinion!)

    • I can’t agree with this. Divorce is usually initiated by the woman, and whatever the guy does to try to hold it together rarely works. Men who have great business and career success may or may not be able to acquire and hold a good woman, regardless of the effort expended.

  12. Something about which you may not be aware:For the first time ever the Powerball Jackpot estimate had to be revised DOWNWARD.This is a sign of a tapped out economy.

  13. Hey wasn’t Newt the guy that eviscerated the Glass-Steagall Act ?? Just another Washington insider !! I can see his media value though with the last balanced budget to his credit. Anyhoo, I am up 42% thanks to you Mr. Ure…THANK YOU !!