When Has Housing “Had Enough?”

That’s a hot topic we will get into Wednesday for www.peoplenomics.com subscriber report tomorrow.  But what we do have on hand is the latest Housing Price press release from Case-Shiller, S&P, et alia:

NEW YORK, November 29, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com

YEAR-OVER-YEAR  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out. The National index reported a 5.5% annual gain in September, up from 5.1% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a yearover-year gain of 5.1%, unchanged from August. 

Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last eight months. In September, Seattle led the way with an 11.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 10.9%, and Denver with an 8.7% increase. 12 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending September 2016 versus the year ending August 2016.  

This part is interesting too:

ANALYSIS “The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While seven of the 20 cities previously reached new post-recession peaks, those that experienced the biggest booms — Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas — remain well below their all-time highs. Other housing indicators are also giving positive signals: sales of existing and new homes are rising and housing starts at an annual rate of 1.3 million units are at a post-recession peak. 

And for those who prefer a picture to the thousand words:

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Simple Greens

We will get to GDP and Corporate Profits after I get something off my chest.

It’s probably a good thing I am “slow to join” things like political parties. Took me 30-years before the Party of Lincoln made sense, and that party went missing 25-30 years ago, only recently resurfacing.

Had I joined the Green Party, it would have been like branding myself a simpleton. (Not that the label can’t be applied anyway; I’m not claiming otherwise…)

The first reason not to be a Green is that Jill Stein apparently can’t do math. As we discussed t’other day, the Greens racked up something like 32-thousand votes in Wisconsin. Hillary had something on the order of 1.383-million while Trump posted (going on credible reports here) 1.404-million.

Even the most math-impaired person in the world would have to admit that the odds of Stein finding an error in the 1-MILLION plus range is close enough to zero so as to be a waste of time. Unless, as we proposed Monday, she’s really cut some kind of a deal with the Clintons. In which case it MIGHT make sense, in a highly politicized, let’s shear the sheep of their money kind of way.

The OTHER reasons Greens might be feeling a bit simple is the report in the UK Daily Mail, that goes to the idea (supported by solar output, math, and you know…science kind of stuff…and not of the jiggered and twisted climate knickers to“stampede people into a Global Climate Tax” way) that in fact there is NO CLIMATE CHANGE.

Check it out: “Stunning new data indicates El Nino drove record highs in global temperature suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions.

Not like there isn’t more science to it…particularly when you read “The ‘dead sun’: Stunning Nasa video reveals barren solar surface with lowest level of activity since 2011.”

For the Greens wanting to update their wetware, recipe goes like this: Higher Sun Spot Counts equals Solar Warming on all Planets. Earth lags a bit due to adiabatic circulation that slows rates of change…oh, hell, go take a meteorology course. While you’re at it see Hysteresis too….

Well (language alert) shit fire and save matches, there goes another made-up business model that kicked off when Gore lost to Bush in 2004 and he went off and rode the Climate Bandwagon that then-Illinois state senator Obama helped get funded. Yeah, all cronyism.

This is not to say all Greens are simple. Only the ones that emptied their wallets to challenge via recounts, not realizing the ugly money of Soros seems to be at work again, too.

Reason #3, or whatever we’re up to here, is that Stein and the simple Greens missed the Pennsylvania challenge deadline. Once again, only the math-impaired wouldn’t see this as yet-another Soros-Clinton end-run attempt.

But since you’re above average, just remember there are lesser people on the other side of that Gaussian distribution.

And they vote.

Peoplenomics Subscriber Note

Remember this week’s Sunday report? The one where I predicted that we would see a huge showdown between titans of real estate (owners of shopping malls) and other such favored investments of pension funds and insurannce companies and such, working the new president to bust up online retailers (like Amazon) because they are making it nigh-on to impossible to raise mall lease rates?

That results in those investments not keeping up with inflation and some might not even break-even?

Behold! Another Ure prediction comes to pass as Donald Trump reportedly has added an anti-trust expert, one David Higbee of Hunton & Williams, LLP.

For those who like the TV series Suits, this move sets up the battle of titans with Onliners on one side, and the “mall investors” (not to be confused with malinvestment, lol) crowd on the other.

I mean just because Amazon is coming up on the 70,000 robot and 2-hour delivery of many products directly to homes and businesses, there’s been nothing to stop mall tenants from getting their poop in a group before it came down to lawyers.

I know…we’ve covered this dueling business model stuff before, but this is delicious.

Especially when we see Wal-Mart as a special case being BOTH a great-big bricks but transitioning to clicks kind of outfit. They seem destined to win – either way.

How the hell the Trump administration can craft a “One Size Fits All” solution to mixed-models like that should be wildly entertaining to the business geek in all of us.

It also hasn’t escaped our notice that the lightening up on Trump in recount talk comes as Trumpians harden up on their online anti-trust talk.

Coincidental? Well, hell no. Nothing is “coincidental” in a massively interconnected financial mess like this one.

Obama’s Wrecking Ball

Child-dumping of kids who mostly can’t speak Engrish and who are immigration off-spring steams ahead.

It’s claimed over here that more than 6-thousand were dumped into communities in October.

BTW: That knife attack up at Ohio State university couldn’t have come as a worse time for the bleeding-hearts (which may impact mental function) because 43,000 Somali refugees have been resettled here (marginally vetted? Bet me?) under you-know-who’s plan to end the “melting pot.”

Disingenuous Reporting Call-Out

Speaking of the Ohio State KNIFE attack, we gotta mention the subtle working of your preconscious perception in the curiously-timed USA TODAY story “How universities train students, faculty for ‘active shooters’.”

Lemme see: The Ohio State attack was car and knife and had NOTHING TO DO WITH GUNS. But the headline doesn’t make it sound that way, does it?

Meantime, we are astounded at the idiocy of “investigators” in the case who can’t call it terrorism.

Yeah, right. Perhaps it was a birthday party. FMTT.

Idiotic Syria Policy

In the meantime, Syrian forces capture major Aleppo neighborhood in blow to rebels. And the hell of this one is the US is continuing to aid the ISIS-backed rebels.

The more war, the more refugees, the more opportunity to jerk the open-border sign and ride the simple-minded open borders crowd.

Those of us whose relatives came through Ellis Island and were vetted, are largely ashamed.

No borders? No Country! Seems to me that’s something every street-corner lefty oughta know. Or get a refund on the law degree, maybe?

Seriously crazy.

Making Even MORE Refugees

No stopping ‘em, though:

Russia Today claims “Kerry making ‘unbelievable effort’ to save Syrian rebels from Trump, Russia confirms.”

For those who missed it: Syria’s president Assad INVITED Russia in to help it put down a cocked-up U.S. neocon plot to “regime change” Assad out of power.

So we continue pouring money down that rat-hole not realizing that where we SHOULD be focused is on keeping Iraq (where we are more welcome, though that’s a problem, too) which is where ISIS is off Global Caliphate-building.

Our bombs make more refugees, keep defense spending high, and keep the wheels of commercial and death industry and bureaucratic social services hiring well-greased.

Oh, and ISIS is calling for more Ohio State-like attacks in the USA.

It’s all whacked.

But you might have figured that unless you’re a simple…oh, you know.

Attacking Rush Limbaugh

Salon story online here: “BULLSH**TER OF THE DAY: Rush Limbaugh, for setting us all straight on this whole fake news business.”

If you Google it, you can find a list of Salon’s past BS’ers of the day here.

What I found interesting was that while they called out Jill Stein’s campaign back in October, they are remaining silent on the Stein-Clinton donor shake-down/recount nonsense.

They strangely don’t seem to call out the Clinton side, though my search is incomplete. Even so, it suggests to me that Salon is part of the liberal effort to (with credit to Rush) de-legitimize the President-elect.

Makes sense, too. Perhaps they can pick up the 32,000 Green voters in Wisconsin as readers…

Hand Me the Press Releases

On corporate profits and GDP:

“Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent.

With the second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger than previously estimated.”

After the press release, futures were about flat.

We’ll update this page with the Housing Data when it’s released…about 8:15 Texas time. East of the Pecos, that is.

Comments

When Has Housing “Had Enough?” — 14 Comments

  1. Real Estate Bubble II … the BIG ONE … Explosion coming up??!!

    While Residential Real Estate is up up up and away and grabbing the headlines, because of WAY below market interest rates reducing everybody’s payments, COMMERCIAL Real Estate has also been on a solid, just short of vertical, climb.

    The two markets while related because of artificially low interest rates are actually driven by different underlying dynamics.

    Residential Real Estate is a CONSUMPTION item (generally – except for the speculator class)where NO economic return is expected

    Commercial Real Estate is an INVESTMENT item where an economic return IS expected

    Investment items exist in order to generate a “Return” on the investment and do to this tend to react much quicker to changes in the investment climate than do consumption items. Because of this the Commercial Property situation can be more easily categorized as being nearer a BUBBLE state now than can residential real estate.

    There is a good article that lays out the situation wrt Commercial real estate over at WolfStreet.Com (link below) but basically it shows that in the Commercial Real Estate PEAK was in Sept 2007 (nominal peak height set at “100”) after which it fell quite dramatically until May 2009 (nominal bottom at 61.2% of the peak height), at which time the bottom feeders came in and it began it’s climb.

    Today, Oct 2016, that Commercial Property Index stands at 126.3, or 26% HIGHER than at it’s peak in 2007, and up 107% from it’s bottom in May 2009!!

    This is NOT a small asset class either … somewhere in the 11 TRILLION dollar range currently!!

    Once interest rates tick up to a more normalized level, say up 2.5- 3 points higher than today, or MORE THAN doubling of where they were the day before Trump was elected, suddenly a LOT of the Commercial Real Estate will have a quick and dramatic value loss from their current peak levels. Maybe even one could say CURRENT BUBBLE LEVELS!!

    As Keynes once said: “Markets can remain irrational longer than one (most) can remain solvent” so I am not saying one should go out and try to short this bubble … but clearly we have what looks like a bubble in the Commercial Real Estate arena, one which when it bursts will hurt a LOT of Insurance Companies, Pension Plans, and Investment Trusts if they have mark to market their now greatly price reduced real estate.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/16/wholl-get-hit-by-fallout-from-the-11-trillion-commercial-property-bubble-in-the-us/

  2. Sign me up for a front row seat at the “Anti Trust” show: the rentier class against new technologies with the rentier class being the Luddites in this case. Of course the only winners in this fight will again be the lawyers. Nonetheless, I love it when the tribe squabbles amongst themselves, kind of a reverse divide and conquer program.

  3. George, just look at your chart. The last time “your team” was in power they cratered the economy, and we still haven’t fully recovered. Last estimate I heard, your team is now adding $11 trillion more to the national debt. Why are you MIA? Can’t someone please get you off the minutia and onto something important? Mike

  4. I remember something about third political parties getting 5% of the vote entitles them to fed campaign money and a place in debates in the next election. Green isn’t close but I recall Libertarian sitting right on the cusp at about 90k votes. That would split the reprobicans.

  5. The recounts have nothing to do with winning the election.

    If they can keep a few states from being able to certify their vote totals, they can prevent their electors from balloting, thus possibly throwing the election to the House. 99.999% Trump will still win, but it will cast a further shadow on his legitimacy.

    That’s their game plan. They aren’t stupid; they’re evil.

    • Remember:

      People do what they do for a reason.
      And
      People don’t do what they don’t do for a reason.

      If you can figure out the reason, you have POWERFUL information.

    • When the fog is thick with too many possibilities I generally try to go to the most logical, cynical, and probable explanations. In this case I lean toward Jill taking a page from ClintonCo – fill the bucket with dollars and move on when it gets dicey. Doesn’t matter who those dollars come from, just keep filling the buckets with dollars until you’re caught or it gets too risky to continue. Spend about 5% on what it’s advertised to address and stash the rest for what the cash is really meant for – airplanes, houses, meals, travel, etc. and call it “expenses”.

      • Don’t forget houses, i.e. Bernie Sanders and his $600,000 sucker donation house. Oh, and his changed status from Independent to Democrat back to Independent. Nice long teat sucking job he has had.

  6. I think she cut a deal with Hillary- because a recount “ties up” electoral votes which cannot be counted come Dec 19, giving neither candidate a lead and sending the election to the Senate, with its high population of globalists plus the Obama wing of the GOP. I also see a Hungarian Nazi in this. Not only that, but the fine print in her appeal stated that the unused money would be used by a new “Jill Stein Foundation.”

  7. Bush – Gore 2004? NOT. Even though it doesnt rhyme it was Bush – Gore 2000. This is the second time I’ve seen this error this week.

  8. I think Stein is trying to set herself up to make a presidential run in 2020. She is trying to show the dem’s she isn’t afraid to go after Trump. All this recount issue is just a dog and pony show so Stein can gain popularity and stay in the news. Stein wants to become the new Hill hag or in this case the Jill hag.

    • But the over 62 million that voted for Trump will remember. She doesn’t have a chance, she is an opportunist. The media blew it on the 18 month over-the-top propaganda fest for Clinton. We will never buy the MSM presidential candidate again!

  9. “It’s claimed over here that more than 6-thousand were dumped into communities in October.”
    That link goes to a page not found. Someone removed your source.