Sideways Market, Personal Incomes

Suppose we begin this morning with a discussion of the Big Picture was we all try to wangle a living out on this crooked rock called Earth, shall we?

I’ll start with the Big Picture for those who are new around here:

The primary purpose of this site is to a) keep you up to speed on how the elites of the world are scalping the fruits of your labor from you.

To them, as we often remind readers, everything is a business model and the idea is to get as big a slice of your labor output in the form of money into their pockets.

To do this, they have set up a facade democracy which is really run by special interests.  And these special interests pull the strings on virtually all the laws – and much foreign policy – in order to line their own pockets.

For now, it is working splendidly as we replay the run from 1921 to 1929’s blow-off top with March next year as one of the nearest potential tops:

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As soon as the bond market figures out the long-term low in interest rates is in, the money will flow from fixed incomes into stocks because it’s one area where prices will adjust for inflation.  Would you want to hold onto a falling-value bond, or something like Microsoft or even Apple stock…or Google?  Not a hard choice around here, but the longer view is a slow way of getting rich.

Everything in our macro future is determined by cash flows.

Perhaps the situation will be more clear if we use the example of Europe – where the process of concentration of power is much more advanced.

What has happened there is the liberals and bleeding hearts have welcomed what is effectively an  invading army from the Middle East.  That’s because in the very short term, it has been a huge economic stimulus.

However, as one Polish security expert warns, that seems to be on the cusp of turning as people of Europe in general and Germany in particular, are waking up to the fact that their manipulated leaders have been in this for power and money and not to ensure the integrity of Europe in perpetuity.

This kind of report is not particularly well-known here in the West because the press in America has been co-opted by money. 

Yes sir,  if you want to know why Hillary can do no wrong compared to Trump?  Look no further than the cash registers of mass media outlets.  Add up the millions upon that Hillary has spent and compare that with the much smaller amount of money spent by Donald Trump.

Regardless of your sense of politics (it can be argued) the fact that Trump is under-spending Hillary means simply this:  Revenue-driven media will tend to give her more space and a pass on wrong-doing because (*kah-ching) it’s money for them

While I am not fond of Hillary, nor revelations about the involvement of the Clinton Foundation in things like purportedly facilitating investment in Russian high tech, there is a key lesson about small government versus big government to be read in here, I did tell you about a year ago that Hillary would be the next president not on merit but on cash, plain and simple.

Yet even while Clinton questions grow, CNN fawns “As Russia grows as a campaign issue, Clinton gains on foreign affairs…

Yeah, sure, you betcha.

This ain’t an election – it’s a bidding war – and Hil’s the likely winner.

The big government/small government argument needs to be dropped in here, too.  In Big Government when the economy slows you have all kinds of levers to pull.  Look at what Obama has been pulling.  The lack of a hard border with Mexico means that Border Patrol and a bazillion social service agencies can lobby for money…which they get.

The democrats get an influx of new voters – who can be addressed by Tim Kaine, and if those aren’t enough immigrants, just open the Syrian pipeline but keep the Christians out.

You can see where this goes.

A lot of readers don’t care for it when I apply basic financial analysis to the revenues and cash flows of politics.  But the ugly fact is it works.

If Donald Trump wants to make a huge impact on his media treatment, here’s the simple way he can do it.

Step 1.  Place bazillions worth of media buys.

Step 2:  When a crooked media outlet gets out of line, simply call up, cancel the buy, and tell them why and then move the money to more “balanced” media.

Advertising is purchased on a “cost per thousand impressions” basis.  Since everyone has similar costs, the CPM (as it’s called) should be fairly close.  What can make or break a media buy?  the connection from the ad department to the editorial and news side.  Oh…yeah…no media transparency there.  But we get hints in the Wikileaks emails, do we not? 

Oh sure, better placement (right page, far forward, free spot color, yada yada) but the connection and slant is critical.  “Friendly” reporters or skeptics does make a difference.  The hard-ass to all reporter types have gone away…artifacts of the 70’s.

The way media works in America is simple – it’s revenue driven and if you want to see where the road goes, look at who is writing the checks.

We will have more on this tomorrow as we discuss the Media 5th column – and not just in presidential politics, but in mismanagement of the State Department as well, where the same suspects have been pulling the levers of war non-stop since the Bill (Dick) Clinton days.  Non-stop, uninterrupted, and not with very good results.

It’s a big ugly spreadsheet to us – how the world works – and it should come as no surprise to anyone that the little guys are cut out.

And speaking of being cut out, how can voting machines do “fractions of a vote?”  Well, it’s all rigged, you see.

See the Jon Rappoport report over here (he’s another of the “old men of the net” who seem more focused on right than money) and you will be sickened.

If you really think this will be a wide open, fair, and honest election, might I mention some mental health professionals you might inquire about?

Warren Buffett becoming the latest member of the billionaires for Clinton club should tell you something (and hats off to the NY Post for telling it like it is here).

Enough of this chipper and cheerful discussion.  Let’s head over and look at…

Personal Income, Outlays Fairytales

I will no doubt be criticized for referring to a government report as a “fairytale” but it’s absolutely true, so far as statistics are concerned.  You see, there is statistically probably NOT a single person or household in the US that actually experiences the averaged data.

Hot off the distro list…

“Personal income increased $29.3 billion (0.2 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $24.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in June and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

Before you get too excited, there are all kinds of revisions to the data:

DPI was revised upward $0.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, for 2013, $108.8 billion, or 0.8 percent, for 2014, and $116.6 billion, or 0.9 percent, for 2015. The percent change from the preceding year in real DPI was the same as previously published in 2013, decreasing 1.4 percent. It was revised upward from an increase of 2.7 percent to an increase of 3.5 percent in 2014, and was the same as previously published in 2015, increasing 3.5 percent. Personal outlays was revised downward $30.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2013. It was revised upward $3.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, for 2014, and $18.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2015. Revisions to personal outlays primarily reflected revisions to PCE.

With this on the table, the futures are down a tad.  Maybe not enough believers around, I just don’t know.

Or maybe revisions to the revisions confuse people…you think?

PokemonGo and Sex Offenders

Sexual predators are being barred from playing the video game says the NY Gov’s office press release:

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today directed the New York State Department of Corrections and Community Supervision to restrict sex offenders under community supervision from using Pokémon GO and similar games. In an effort to safeguard New York’s children, the Governor also sent a letter to software developer Niantic, Inc. requesting their assistance in prohibiting dangerous sexual predators from playing Pokémon GO.
“Protecting New York’s children is priority number one and, as technology evolves, we must ensure these advances don’t become new avenues for dangerous predators to prey on new victims,” Governor Cuomo said. “These actions will provide safeguards for the players of these augmented reality games and help take one more tool away from those seeking to do harm to our children.”
At the Governor’s direction, DOCCS has imposed a new condition of parole for sex offenders under community supervision that will prohibit them from downloading, accessing, or otherwise engaging in any Internet enabled gaming activities, including Pokémon GO. The directive will apply to nearly 3,000 Level 1, 2 and 3 sex offenders currently on parole. The Department of Criminal Justice Services will additionally be providing guidance to county probation offices recommending the adoption of this policy. ?
The Governor has also directed DCJS to reach out to Niantic, Inc. to provide the most up-to-date information of offenders within the Sex Offender Registry.
DCJS will also contact Apple and Google to inform them of these public safety concerns and work with them to enhance user safety. Software developers that operate mobile games like Pokémon GO should be entitled to the same information that is regularly shared with companies like Facebook, Apple and Microsoft.
These actions were spurred by a recent report by Senators Jeffrey D. Klein and Diane Savino demonstrating that children playing this popular augmented reality game have unknowingly been steered to locations in close proximity to, or even at, sex offender residences.
ýAdditionally, a feature of the game, where, for a small fee, a “lure” can be purchased to intentionally encourage traffic to a particular location, also appears to have the potential to be abused by predators.

I can hardly wait for this to land in court because I’m sure there’s a rep-building lawyer out there somewhere who will label being barred from a video game constitutes cruel and unusual… but let’s wait and see…

Proxy War Ahead?

Missing nuclear confrontations?

Need a little more war in your life?

Think the nasty nest of neocons are satisfied wrecking the Middle East?

Well, here we go:  Look for Australia to perhaps take point on a showdown with China on those islands that have been built in the South China Sea.

Yes, having an “innocent” nation like Australia take point would surely play well in the press…and we would be brought in to stand behind our allies” would be the pitch.

That would raise the specter of war – ramp up defense spending, and give whoever wins the election an easy to throttle, variable-yield crisis.

Scare the people until they pay…yes  madam president.

Zika is Not a Disease

It’s a political football.

Oh, sure, health warnings for So. Fla. but politics is so much more revenue-oriented.

Mosquitos don’t write press releases or buy ad space.  Stupid critters, aren’t they?  Let’s monetize the political angle until the bio firms get something ready to market.

Sounds like a plan to me.,.

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Comments

Sideways Market, Personal Incomes — 25 Comments

  1. George, Im confused on the timeframes that graph comparing 1929 to now is showing. That red line, if its suppose to reflect the current market through today as compared to the pre 29 crash era, should be well into the mid 1928 area if the timeframes were suppose to be corresponding to meet that blow off top in March next year. It’s not even into 1928 yet(if you put a straight edge to it (which infers its showing 2015 info)?

  2. Hi George,
    Long time reader and wanted to get your thoughts on something that recently happened as I believe they’re instructing lending institutions to keep a lid on how bad the economy actually is. My girlfriend recently lost her job back in May. She has yet to replace the income as it was fairly high paying. During that time she’s fallen behind on some credit cards (specifically Victoria’s Secret and Kohl’s). Yesterday, she received statements from both regarding her July payment that she did not make. Not only had they both WAIVED her minimum payment from last month but they both RAISED her credit limit on both cards. What in the actual “F”? Which got me thinking… perhaps they’re doing this for two reasons… 1) they can keep it off of their delinquency/default list 2) they’re trying to keep consumer spending up by enticing deeper debt even though they KNOW you can’t pay your minimums. Thoughts???

  3. Pokemon No-Go? Really? Here’s a hint for ya, Mr. Cuomo:

    If one is a “dangerous sex offender,” perhaps your parole boards shouldn’t let him or her out of prison…

    I’m not a fan of PokemonGO. In the past six weeks or so, I’ve been on a dozen college campuses (campii?) The number of young adult “leaders” — the ones who’ll run our retirement homes and plans, mind you — stumbling around with dumbphone firmly-attached to right hand, staring into the display whilst completely oblivious to their surroundings, is amazing, and appalling. The number of non-college young’uns (ages between about 12-40) I know personally, who play, some even during work/school hours, is also amazing.

    That said, it’s just “geocaching with Pikachu” and, probably because I never understood the attraction of the Nintendo Game Boy that my kids and their contemporaries held, I fail also to see the fascination with PokemonGO. I can hardly wait for some marketing wonk to abbreviate it “PoGo” so Walt Kelly’s grave can be used as a power source…

  4. “Yes sir, if you want to know why Hillary can do no wrong compared to Trump? Look no further than the cash registers of mass media outlets.”

    Hmmm.. I knew she was the next president the moment the puppet masters that would more than likely be affected by any changes trump would attempt to make started to try every trick in the book to get him and Bernie off of the ballots.. Heck I would love to see trumps team of lawyers going through the bills that the puppet masters write for the minion congressmen to vote into office and bringing what they read to the publics view.. you know those bills that they refuse to write or read and now with fast tracking they don’t even have to have it hit the desk straight to the circular file cabinet.. the one lined with plastic to keep them safe.. Lets face it.. Bernie is for socialism of sorts or more for the middle class and general population..And its in Trumps benefit.. to keep and make america strong, strengthen our industrial complexes and make the dollar strong, I am sure his comments on doing away with the federal reserve didn’t go unnoticed either I am pretty positive that got a few to spit coffee across the room..The other thing is neither one is controllable by the one percent.. what could they do give him a hundred million or so.. lunch money.sure he says things that most won’t but he is bringing up subjects from our todays fears of the people and not some fifty year old issue that generates sentiment.. I think he is our next best hope if we are to survive the upcoming ( my guess is still next spring )catastrophy.
    so Hillary is the next best choice for the one puppet masters to have put in office..

  5. “This kind of report is not particularly well-known here in the West because the press in America has been co-opted by money. ”

    Are you sure that big money has scripted our news in the USA. all the major channels FOX, CBS NBC etc.. say no they speak the truth and don’t script the news in anyway shape or form…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFsDnn9FjOQ

  6. Trump says outragious things on a regular basis, trying to get publicity, while relying on fox news for free coverage, but Hillary’s advertsing money will win if Don doesn’t purchase enough ads. If she gets in, I do not think Hillary will be good for America. Or more bluntly, she will hurt the country.

  7. Australia does what the White House wants. As per Vietnam; “All the way with LBJ!” was the mantra in Canberra.
    Which pulls NZ into the fight.

  8. Why is it that no one is paying attention to the siege at the US base at Incirlik Turkey? With the airspace locked down, and the base surrounded by Turkish forces, and the commercial power to the base shut off. How long before the generators run out of fuel? When the base goes dark, what happens to the fissile weapons that are stored there?

    I don’t think it will be long before we get our answer.

  9. “fractions of a vote?”, Maybe we should all use our cell phones to take a picture of our ballots and upload to an exit poll website. Might help to keep the voting honest. Without receipts, what else could we do?

  10. George, maybe Trump is right? Have a read: http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/02/khizr-khan-deletes-law-firm-website-proving-financially-benefits-pay-play-muslim-migration/
    Article is titled ‘Panic Mode: Khizr Khan Deletes Law Firm Website that Specialized in Muslim Immigration’
    Like others have said, why does no one INSIST on answers from the progs/demonicRATS e.g. no one is grilling Chelsea on daddy Bill’s treatment of women?!

    Later.

  11. “the elites of the world are scalping the fruits of your labor from you.” Was it ever at any time different during human history?

  12. I would like to see a law that elected official be required to wear patches, similar to race car drivers, golf professionals, bowlers and poker players. This would indicate to everyone who are their sponsors. The size would indicate the amount of money given. I do not think many would qualify for an “American People” patch.

    • Rather than patches, lets use internet links for benefactors. At a million bucks a page have a politicians home page carry links to sponsors such that each page carries pro rata links to sponsors BEFORE you get to see any content from the pol.
      We would have to alter the scale for presidentials who would otherwise have thousands of pages of reference links to get through. And set it up like the damned pop-ups so that you can’t skip to the end.

  13. I don’t know George. I think it’s more than just ad revenue. 9/11 showed me that the media is in lockstep and reported contrary to what I could see with my own eyes. No ad $$$ involved. What is it called when the Administration, Government Agencies and Media are all working in concert, asking you to deny reality, and rigging elections? Hmmm. Sounds like a dictatorship to me. Trump seems to be the last hope for US. Otherwise by the end of the decade the US will be a Third World country. Maybe that’s inevitable, but with Trump there is a chance if he can beat the rigged system. God bless him for trying. Win or lose, he quite possibly could be remembered as the last American hero.

  14. Well George you know its the peoples fault for the mess in Washington, and all its corruption, they in all truth created it by the party thing rather than any intelligence in the voting booth, and it will be up to the people to clean it up one way or another or they can continue to play the old H. Long saying “don’t blame me don’t blame thee blame the fellow behind the tree”.!!.!!!

  15. There are days I am so disgusted with what is going on that I simply turn away and ignore the stinking pile of it. I don’t know how you manage to keep on top of things without losing your mind.

  16. I take a different view. I think that Trump is a direct result of the media. Trump says so many far out things that the media covers him. That free coverage is what built him up. Ditto for ISIS. The news outlets running videos of beheadings and immolations does everything to conflate it into something larger than it is.

  17. Paper Cat vs Dragon? Seems like a wasted effort to me. Why would Australia want to even get involved?

    Australia probably has the highest percentage of productive Chinese immigrants, and they all have relatives in China. Why would they want a confrontation? Australia is far better off honing their trading status with China and standing aside from any discord. Let the Philippines do it…..

    I’m much more concerned about the unstable situation in Turkey.

    • Turkey is not unstable — Erdogan takes history lessons from Germany ca. 1930-1033.
      Casa cerrado!

      • Turkey may not be, but the security of our 268 nukes in their territory certainly is. I do hope that the commander of the base will do the right thing if they get invaded.

        Capitulation is not an option.