Retail Post Mortem: Rigor Carrus

I don’t know why, but I had in my head that we would be getting the retail figures on Wednesday, but for some reason, I was running a day ahead of time.  So this morning, RoW catches up and we can get on with the reconciling the Retail figures with the Consumer Debt report from the Fed last week.

So here’s how the retail side looked:

“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $437.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5)* from the
previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above May 2013.

Total sales for the March 2014 through May 2014 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.7) from the same period a year ago. The March 2014 to April 2014 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5)* to +0.5 percent (±0.2).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5)* from April 2014, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers
were up 11.1 percent (±3.2) from May 2013 and nonstore retailers were up 7.4 percent (±2.3) from last year.

“What’s a  “nonstore retailer?”  Folks like Amazon.  Who needs to go to the store when you can have UPS, FedEx, and the Post Office simply deliver the life you’re renting?

And STILL the only thing keeping us out of the crapper is?  AUTO SALES!!!

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Gimme a big Hallelujah, brothers and sisters of the Church of the Almighty Dollar and let’s all go for a test drive.  We need to keep America solvent so we can support Mexico. Uh…..

Mexification? Right On Track

In light of my comments this week on the War with Mexico that we’re also losing, and in light of yesterday’s in depth treatment in Peoplenomics, we heartily recommend you read the Bob Unruh story over at WorldNetDaily this morning: “Ex-Border Agents:  Immigrant flood ‘orchestrated.”

All proven by the numbers in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  Twice the Budget and almost 2/3rd’s less apprehensions.  That kind of stuff doesn’t happen by accident.

That’s a plan.

When you see headlines like “Indiana Sheriff: We Need Military Equipment Because USA Is A War Zone” realize we aren’t really a war zone yet.

But the fine folks in Washington are trying to import one, just as fast as they can.  And they’re doing a fine damn job of it.  Unfortunately.

About to Lose Iraq

Al Qaeda now owns 1/10th of Iraq.  They are on track to grab the whole thing in a blitz war which includes shooting Iraqi soldiers in order to inspire fear in the hearts of those who would otherwise defend Baghdad and other key cities.  This is “instant ugly.”

Anarchy is spiraling in Iraq and the government of Iraq is asking the US to come back in and wipe out the al Qaeda forces that have overrun Mosul and which, if my read of things is right, are about to wipe out the rest of the country and link up with anti-Shiite forces in Syria.

Ain’t gonna happen, not with these people we have in Washington.  And wasn’t McCain supporting arms to al Qaeda in Syria? What was he thinking?  Where did the arms go?  The headlines out of Iraq should be a hint…

See last night’s special www.nostracodues.com scan of the Middle East here.

I’d give it less than a month before Baghdad falls.  And a congressional investigation into how the Obama State Department screwed this up ought to be tremendously (although uselessly) entertaining after it’s all too late.

Oh, that was the plan by the Obamanistas all along, you think?

Keep a close eye on Israel now.  Since Obama has effectively abandoned Israel, and left the militants to run wild in the Middle East, the return of revolution to Egypt within a year, once militants seize Syria, would complete the encircling of Israel.

Headlines like “Al Qaeda forms up to march on Baghdad, gathering up Iraqi Sunni rebels. Maliki cries treason…” are already making the rounds.

Don’t mind me, I’ll just be the guy setting up the pool on when Israel will go nuclear in order to hang onto it’s homeland as the encirclement cinches up.

Must be something in the wind this summer:  Borders are a mess everywhere.

Eric Cantor’s constituents just happened to figure it out.

Repeating: My Breakthrough Idea for Term Limits

1.

And if we can bank online from home, how come congress can’t legislate from home districts?

More after this…

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Tomorrow’s Earthquake

Well, we can’t tell you where, exactly, but there’s a weak statistical argument that when the remnants of X class solar flares hit earth that we seem to get some quakes.  So, we have this from the Solar Influences Data Center earlier this week:

The impulsive X2.2 flare peaking at 11:44 UT and originating from NOAA AR 2087 situated close to the east solar limb was reported today. The flare was accompanied with narrow CME (angular width of about 70 degrees) which will not arrive at the Earth.

The same NOAA AR 2087 was also source of the long duration X1.5 flare which peaked at 12:52 UT and was associated with coronal dimmings, an EIT wave and a full halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 13:25 UT and had a projected plane of the sky speed of about 1050 km/s. The majority of the CME mass was ejected eastward of the Sun-Earth line. However, the glancing blow associated with this CME can be expected at the Earth in the morning of June 13.

So sometime in the next 48-hours, a decent quake (6.5-7+) could be along.  It’s just a matter of where that will hit.

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Also on the geophysical front, we have to note that the Solar Cycle is now on the “backside” and it’s from here, until we get about one-third of the way down the curve (extended via the red line in the chart to the right) that the odds of an X-class flare are greatest.

Still, we’re not about to go sniffing dust bunnies as we go hide under the bed, since we’re far enough inland and high enough not to worry too much. 

Still, the other feature of the chart is that sunspots also roughly coincide with solar output and as the Sun’s output goes down, we get a  gradual cooling of Earth, which is really too bad for the people who are rabidly promoting a global carbon tax.

Climate Change is Global Tax Scheme

We have to credit a tip from reader Eric D and a story from SMH.Com.au for reporting that their prime minister down under, “Tony Abbott is seeking a conservative alliance among “like-minded” countries, aiming to dismantle global moves to introduce carbon pricing, and undermine a push by US President Barack Obama to push the case for action through forums such as the G20.”

Oh, my, with the Sun now entering the next phase of cool-down, what will be the next rallying point for the carbon traders and globaltaxers?

Backgrounder:  National Survey of Small Business

Here’s a doggone interesting email that I don’t think the author would mind me sharing with you:

Hi George,
I’m Jon Lieber, Chief Economist at Thumbtack.com. This morning we’re releasing the results of the largest small business survey of its kind. I wanted to give you a quick heads up because I thought it could be perfect for your work at Urban Survival.

We’ve partnered for the third year in a row with the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation to conduct a survey of about 13,000 small businesses nationwide that use our site. The survey asks small business owners and operators what makes for a business friendly environment and uses the responses to rate which are the most and least friendly states and cities for small businesses. States and metro regions are rated across 11 different metrics.

I’m copying the official release below, and there are interactive visualizations of the data here

Here are some of the more interesting findings:

  • Small businesses in Texas, Utah and Idaho have rated their states in the top five every year this survey has run, while California and Rhode Island have been rated in the bottom five every year.
  • The friendliness of professional licensing requirements was the most important regulatory issue in determining a state’s overall friendliness to small businesses. Closely following licensing requirements was the ease of filing taxes.
  • Once again, tax rates were a less important factor than the ease of regulatory compliance in determining the overall friendliness score of a jurisdiction. Two-thirds of respondents said they paid their “fair share” of taxes – that is, they felt like they were neither under-paying nor over-paying.

Please let me know if you have any questions – happy to help out any way I can!

Best,
Jon
Chief Economist, Thumbtack.com

Way cool, Jon-dude.  It takes a minute to load  the data her link (at least out here at the end of the string, telephonically speaking).  But the results show that the Orange states, places like Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana are all pretty good places for small/start up businesses.

One of the worst places to do a new business continues to be California because they must have something in the water out there.  As one reader asked this week, WT(actual)F is a “Board of Equalization?”

Well sir, there ain’t nothing “equalizing” about it.  It’s just a tax-grabber conglomeration.  Kind of “elected Grim Reapers”:

The authorities of the Board fall into four broad areas: sales and use taxes, property taxes, special taxes, and acting as an appellate body for franchise and income tax appeals (which are collected by the Franchise Tax Board).[1] The BOE is the only publicly elected tax commission in the United States.

How the people assessing taxes can act as an appellate body flies in the face of Urean logic, but I have these simple-minded notions that there shouldn’t be “fee justice.”  If you live in a state with a state income tax, try to remember you can still move to one of the free states.

Even so, as that Thumbtack data shows, even this is not a decent guide, although it’s a sad commentary when we elect a president from one of the worst small business states in the country: Illinois and then wonder “Whaa hoppened?”

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