Here I am, swilling enough coffee to fill a swimming pool, and the best I could get out of my blood pressure this morning was 131/87 pulse 76. Let’s fix that, shall we?
The way we will start is to look at the Retail Sales debacle. Up one tenth of one percent while the money supply has been going up many times that paltry about…so it LOOKS like retail is up. It’s not. UNITS are down (Peoplenomics readers know this because we actually do count container arrivals) Ain’t really up…just takes more paper to get what you need….
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $447.3 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 1.7 percent (±0.7%) above October 2014. Total sales for the August 2015 through October 2015 period were up 2.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.
The August 2015 to September 2015 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to virtually unchanged (±0.2%)*. Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* from September 2015, and up 1.2 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.1 percent from October 2014 (±1.4%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 6.2 percent (±2.8%) from last year.
Look at the chart and then mentally erase the gray “Auto” columns. See why we had to save Detroit? And yeah, we screwed that up pretty well, too.
All of which (if you look at the chart closely) proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the biggest business in America today is what?
The problem is where are these cars going. Since the U.S. and Europe are (more or less) in replacement rate models, that means the new rides have been going places like China and Russia.
And that’s the problem.
In terms of future Russian sales, I think those will get ever-more sketchy as we are wandering toward a “death dance” in Syria.
Sales to China are likely to fall, as well for two reasons. First, the Chinese are not stupid – having been in the civilization game for several thousand years longer than the U.S. and they will not put up with us interfering with their island-building in the South CHINA SEA (emphasis added for complete idiots).
John Kerry must be getting advice from the same idjits who sucked us into the phony war with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam before that. The same idjits who are now not clearly getting the fact that China is telling Taiwan that it really is part of China.
Can you imagine, just for a moment, how crazy it would be if the Island of Catalina decided to go high tech and raise its own army, flag and foreign policy? That, to the Chinese is how this thing looks on their side. Taiwan is their Catalina with 50-years of politics thrown in.
The “islands” being built would be like dredging up an island off Catalina to remind them that they are just a wee bit beholden to…well, you follow, right? It would be like us island building off Catalina…
For our Canadian readers (both of them), it would be like Vancouver Island declaring its independence and being supported by Russia. Canada would prevail in that one because they could turn off grain exports from the prairies.
Realistically? We do have some bad news to deal with going forward and we won’t sugar-coat the news about how it could play out.
Right now, we have been suffering from a long-string of non-strategic thinkers and policy-makers. Reading Foreign Policy does not an expert make. It makes group-think. Career politicos going through serial foreign policy failures and then wondering what went wrong; it’s enough to make me sick..
The answers are clear – there is a long-term chess game gong on. But guns and troops are not the only weapons – as Chinese demonstrate daily. It’s like we have an “arrested development” problem. Stuck at the gun stage.
Despite their laying off a bunch of coal miners the other day, and the U.S. tweaking, China has remained cool, so far. But at some point, when a failing bully – who basically can only throw a left hook – gets to be too much of a nuisance, they will respond.
When car sales collapse, so will the U.S. economy. And since the Washington posse has been underscoring items like racial and sexual differences, the Unity which once ruled America has all but been torpedoed. Good going D.C.
And notice how we don’t have any National Goals – no Big Dream. No “Go to the Moon” just givebacks on climate and all the rest of the BS. Tell people smaller homes and cars are good and they won’t notice their lifestyle is being shot to hell. Wrap it up green and people will embrace poverty, I tell yah. And I can prove it any time.
Food self-sufficiency – huge ag deals with Mexico, cancelling car exports…that’s the kind of stuff that China can uncork when the big collapse of relations arrives in earnest.
It is not here yet, but like a big shark, it is swimming around and getting closer to the shoreline all the time.
Yet we insist on the political version of wiping ourselves down with hamburger and going swimming.
With non-strategic leadership, it’s no wonder Paul Ryan and the rest of the nitwits in the National GOP are floundering. They are trying to play the game of SAME-OLD when times have, indeed changed.
Their answer? Go even more crooked!
Total, absolute bullshit…but typical bait and switch and an insult to anyone who has watched the republican debates and been working through who among the herd. To throw Romney in now? Bait and Switch at its finest, but you see, this is how the Obama Wing of the GOP operates.
And that would be the typical old-line republican bait and switch…and why the GOP can not be trusted – and hasn’t been by working people since the Tea Party split.
Trump, Carson, Paul, and Cruz (hate ‘em if you will) are outsiders – and that’s what the country needs. Since World War II, it has been the same old insiders. It really is time for change.
We are voting on tomorrow and the mummy who walks with a wig and the me-too collective charading as republicans is not the new blood, fresh thinking, and keen insights needed to bail this puppy out and administer some good old-fashioned American ass-whipping as required.
That starts at home, by the way.
Kids in school need to be taught personal excellence and going for the brass ring. Instead, there are courses on how to get the dole. I have particular admiration for the programmers who didn’t go to college…some of them have made pretty good money. College is a joke – just a check-off in the interview process. What America has lost sight of is the “Tell me what you can actually do…” part of the hiring process.
Rest assured: We’ll get another mob appeasement specialist in the White House who will further bargain away our sovereignty and our national strength until…in the end…it will be too late. The voting machine fraud is coming again, I can feel it in my bones.
Me? I’ll take a doctor to reform healthcare and a developer to build a fence. I’m an idiot though –0 the kind that reads resumes and looks at the debates as job interviews.
Another fat cat to appease the lobbyistas and check-writers for buy legislation in the District of Corruption like you buy milk at Wal-Mart? Not happening.
Screw that. Been there, done that, got the dead friends in Arlington to show for it. Frigging shame no one remembers what the fights were for. ‘Specially this week.
Got my B.P. up to 139/90 pulse 85. Now I think I’ll go fight traffic on that parking lot called I-35 West. That oughta finish me off.