Reporter B’s & C’s

A buddy of mind (local ham radio op) forwarded an email that you might see making the rounds.  It features an assortment of pictures of people in various settings absolutely glued to their phones.

At the end is a picture of Albert Einstein with the quote “I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots…” 

While it’s appealing, and we do seem to have a world of idiots, we note that it’s not really an Einstein quote It is actually dismissed in a thorough discussion over here at Snope.com.  But it does get to our first point along the path of Urban Survival:  Check your sources. And ask if they are reporting or opining.

(Continues below)

 

The matter first rattled in my head around 3:30 AM today when I was moderating the discussion and Comment section of this site.

A reader has put out (like trolling bait) a request for comment about something a CNN opinion promoter had written.  I declined except to note that the so-called “news” item was more an individual’s opinion of events (not new information that was sourced) and EVERYONE has an opinion.  Like everyone has one of those things you sit on.

The shotgun wedding between concepts?

Well, the Einstein quote wasn’t real – and most ALL the “opinion writers” take a few very scant and mostly unproven “facts” (assertions really) and weave them into a whole cloth which they then sell to huge audiences in return for ad dollars.

So we have a bottom  line to begin with today:  Check the Bona Fides and Credentials  (B’s & C’s) of anything you read on the ‘net.

A huge amount of the net’s “fake news” is really “Opinion in drag.”  Despite this, it goes into the blender of general public opinion just as though it were real.

Hell of a phenomena.

Over on our 24/7 headline serving site (www.computationalfuture.com) we are very suspect (and usually don’t open) any RSS feed link that begins with a person’s name (first, or last and a colon after it).  Unless it’s as news maker, not an opiner or whiner.

It’s a pretty simple filter, but useful.  You’re welcome to use it.

Continuously.

Baking the Fed, Printing Dough

Time for our Friday look at the real driver of the markets, economy, Modern Monetary Theory, and most everything else:  The Federal Reserve’s two weekly confessionals about how much money is being “made up.”

In other words, in April, May, and June, the rate of increase of M1 (cash and demand deposits, essentially) was being puffed up at a 6.7% (annualized) rate.  But in the most recent window (confession period ending July 17) we’re going up 9.5% (annualized).

Can you say pedal to the metal?

An idiot like me will see this much dough coming in to the economy and automatically assume (rightly or otherwise) that there will be gobs and oodles of “leakage” into the markets.

Fortunately, I expect a short, sharp (and hopefully profitable) pullback today and with any luck sufficient follow-through so we can bounce off the bottom of our current trend channel and I can fatten up the ol’ trading account more.

No telling what will actually happen, but the market is bound to Feel the Pain of the health insurance outfits who didn’t get their BUYOFF/BAILOUT since John McCain’s decision to vote against repeal of Obamacare…

Look for the market to shed some tears – and points – as it’s always so sad from the corporate standpoint when lobbying money doesn’t BUY as much as expected.

On to GDP Results

Just our from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:  New GDP figures to ponder:

“Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised).

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 30, 2017.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).”

This is especially useful to study because it gives us an idea what the annual money creation run rates ought to be.  In order for your money to hold its purchasing power, you would like to see the growth rate of money just about equal to the growth in GDP.

But, since THAT ain’t hap’nin, bubba, we know that the Feds long term watering down of the money’s purchasing power – which is on the order of 3.5% annually since the Banker’s Coup of 1913 – is alive and well.

We will skip the longer discussion of how currencies are debased then repackaged and resold periodically, since you haven’t seen any Silver Certificates in circulation here later.

On Personal Income and Savings?

“Current-dollar personal income increased $118.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $217.6 billion in the first quarter (revised). The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected decelerations in wages and salaries, in government social benefits, in nonfarm proprietors’ income, and in rental income, and downturns in personal interest income and in farm proprietors’ income. These movements were offset by an upturn in personal dividend income.

Disposable personal income increased $122.1 billion, or 3.5 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $176.3 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the first  Quarter (revised). Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.

Personal saving was $546.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with $553.0 billion in the first quarter (revised). The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with 3.9 percent in the first.

When you’re looking in the rearview at all this, don’t forget to look ahead via Federal Reserve Working Papers (and at the regional Fed branches) because it’s pretty obvious – or should be – that the next blatant currency replacement scheme will be “Government Required Cashless” – which will better facilitate totally made-up “Money.”

But you knew that, we presume?

The Worm Turns

RealClearPolitics story worth reading deals with a former Lt. Col. Anthony “Shaffer: Evidence That Wasserman Schultz Used Pakistani Imran Awan For Malevolent Activities Against Bernie Sanders.”

Honestly, I’m a bit sketchy on how the so-called Just-Us Department hasn’t gotten on the stick and looked into possible to likely criminal activity as the D.N.C. screwed Bernie Sanders out of a fair chance at the Democrat Nomination.

Moreover, why is she still a congressoid?  You might think given what happened to old Bernie, the GOP would censure you-know-who (or kick her out).  But these are RINO’s.

Then there’s the piece in The Hill Intelligence chairman accuses Obama aides of hundreds of unmasking requests.”

And one other runaway personality to watch in Washington: “Maxine Waters interrupts Treasury Secretary’s single answer — 12 times!”  This as Waters, et al, are trying to get the Treasury Department to talk about Russia-Trump financial ties…  All of which to us looks like the keep-alive effort for the Trump-Russia story while Mueller’s folks continue their summer fishing trip.  Sheesh.

Markets?

Dow looks to open down 38, or so.  After going to cash earlier this week, we will eye a short-term downside position next.  We’ll show Peoplenomics readers why in tomorrow’s report.

Time to saddle up the riding mower…again.  Is it fall, yet?

Comments

Reporter B’s & C’s — 21 Comments

  1. “Over on our 24/7 headline serving site we are very suspect (and usually don’t open) any RSS feed link that begins with a person’s name…
    …Unless it’s as news maker, not an opiner or whiner.”

    Good filter. I usually trace an article back to its source, also (BIG hint): If the origination site has any form of the word “opinion” in its URL, don’t bother…

    OM2: Vetoproof majority.

    George: No north 40 for me…

    I’m in the middle of rebuilding the mower spindles. Deere wants ~$430 for just the center one. Parts outlets aren’t much better. Good thing my daddy taught me how to do stuff like this when I was seven (parts total for the rebuild: $18 for bearings, probably a buck worth of supplies {already on-hand}, an hour of labor each, counting cleaning/painting/lubing, and they should function better than new. I won’t know until/unless it dries out enough to mow…

  2. MEMO:TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN…

    DONT GIVE UP JUST YET ON THOSE ZIMBABWE $100,000,000,000,000.00 TOILET PAPER NOTES..(BTW-DID I GET THE ZEROS CORRECT?? LOL!)
    THEY MAY SOON BE THE ONLY GOLD BACKED CURRENCY IN THE WORLD!! :-)))

    http://www.herald.co.zw/gold-reserves-to-back-currency/

    (this is a mainstream Zimbabawe media site, not a pie in the sky conspiracy site)

  3. OK George, strap on the old brush cutter and pull a Forrest Gump out there. You might want to send Zeus in to town for a few hours, so he does not see you destroying his hunting zone.

  4. Congress will vote their paymasters every time.

    House 419-3; Senate 97-2 – only 5 congressmen voted against throwing gasoline on their own fires. The rest want to ‘feel the burn’ I guess. If Trump signs it, he is a fool, as the bill is likely unconstitutional. Yet I imagine he will sign it, since he is now living in the bubble I call the Contaminated Zone.

    And yet congressoids refuse to repeal Obamacare, and left the deciding vote to John McCain. Fellow congressoids knew he would vote not to repeal, and that he is dying of glioblastoma in the near future and cannot be re-elected. Well, maybe, since AZ voters are obviously brain-dead, he might get re-elected anyway – and then he would still vote for more war, taxes and chaos every time, even when dead (latest vote clearly illustrative). Him casting the deciding vote is pure theater.

    If Americans cannot yet see that their elected representatives are voting directly against their wishes, en masse, they never will. From my perch, this will turn into something far uglier, as the left and right coasts descend into further government madness.

    I have a daughter that weaves cloth, another that makes beer, a farming son and another that is a lawyer. The lawyer is leaving his practice due to being unable to deal with lies to clients and other firms – soon to be working on meshnets.

    If you aren’t ready for The Fall this fall, you should be. Leg 1 down is being amped by everything in sight. Watch Venezuela, where their cash is rapidly being made into toilet paper by the banking class. Watch as the CIA moves Colombian troops into position to “restore order” in the near future, perhaps?

    • OM you hit it again.. what three years ago prices have soared down there.. the same is coming our way in my opinion..
      I fear the fall this fall.. I keep hoping that trump can pull a rabbit out of his hat.. I don’t understand why the puppet masters are pushing for it.. it sure isn’t to make money to destroy the very thing they created and did so much to keep going.. it has to be power of some sort.. IN my opinion there is an equation they aren’t considering and it is the same one that got Trump elected.Sure they are trying to say Russia did it.. but heck no one from russia came to me to tell me how to vote…How do they control the minds of all the people. It has to be the fly in the ointment. They surly can’t buy off everyone like they have the legislators….

      • Agenda 21, Kalergi plan, collapse of the economy, destroy $ as the world reserve currency, continue to abolish the constitution and bill of rights, they are already working hard on the 1st amendment, hate laws are coming, pretty soon you will not be able to speak of evil, nor see evil, nor hear the evil and they are adding a 4th one, THINK any evil as they are working hard on predictive behaviour using all of their technological combined with medical tools. Then you will see them ‘check mate’ the 2nd amendment, once that is gone, you will not need any more ‘warnings’ if you are awake and aware. So, why are they doing it? One world government, do away with nation states, massive shift of humanity, total control, elimination of 90% of the world population. But, they have all these steps they have to accomplish first, and the biggest one is to take down America, make it a 3rd world country with no common language or culture, craft infighting and turn it against itself (which is working right on target). In the old days, we used to agree to disagree, these are the good old days and we can’t even ‘tolerate’ each other’s differences, that’s if we can even listen to them. Well finer minds than mine can answer the question, ‘why?’ Did you know that it only took 300 Bolsheviks to take down Czarist Russia which led to the death of 36 million Christians? Remember 911, how many millions did it cost to build the twin towers? Two of those towers/high rises came down within a few hours, the 3rd one was “pulled” by 4:00/4:30 p.m. Demolition is always faster than creation. Never ever underestimate TPTB; criminal minds indeed.

    • There won’t be a collapse of the economy for 2 more years. 2018-2019. I stand my ground on this. I have a proven track record. I see the Dow going over 30,000 before the collapse. They took the middle class last time. It’s being set up to fleace the uper class now.

      There is not enough momentum to start a civil war in the U.S. That is the plan.

      They can NOT take down the U.S. without a civil war. We are still the strongest military in the world. And our civilian army is unmatched by any force in the world.

      There is more registered hunters in California, Oregon and Washington the the entire Russian and Chinese military combined. No country can take us. That is just registered hunters not counting just every day legal gun owners and the illegal gun owners.

      Japan held it’s interest rates at near 1% for over a decade. Now they are running negative interest rates along with the swiss and a few other countries.

      There will be no economic collapse this year. Japan hoes first. It’s the 3rd largest economy in the world. I have said this for 3 years now. Every year the doomsayers predict the collapse and it doesn’t happen. There MUST be a period of percieved prosperity first!!!

      • I have already linked it once on George’s site almost 6 months ago. Everything is unfolding as predicted back before Trump won the republican nominee. Trump won the presidency and stocks sored. Etc. Etc.

        I have already given 2 examples on this his site recently where I posted the comments of others before they posted their comments.

        Example #1. a few days prior to Ecuador ex pat comment, I posted a comment, his comment without him knowing it.

        Example #2. I posted the comment of another poster prior to it bring posted without ever seeing it. Same reference to having a guest In the house, per Jon and the us Governement.

        Both linguistically a match.

        George and I go waaaay back. He knows how accurate I am. I do miss and mistake things from time to time. Ie an earthquake looks like an f5 tornado etc. But i run way more accurate then the bots and most others, even helped Grady a few times like the Marysville school shooting with his data. Translating his data.

        I do NOT need to prove myself, George knows. Plus I’m waaaaay too busy with work.

        2cnd comment.guess I will have to wait till tomorrow. Thems the rulz.

        Off to grab 18 gears.

        Have a great day.

        0

      • I wasn’t trying to get you to prove yourself, I was responding to your comment that you have a proven track record, not even contesting it or challenging it, just wanted to know how to know more about it; so you posted it six months ago, can you post it again? Can you please post it again? Can you please post it again? Thank you. You know, spiritually speaking, if a novice asks 3 times…guess what the avatar has to do?

  5. Markets and Mowing are the order of the day. De stalking the back 40, and adding stocks to buy and sell list. New zero turn has made life much easier. The daily news has turned into the juiciest, Crime drama, Sci-Fi, and Action adventure novel live in real time. It is very distracting and leads to emotional overload. Time to get back to the basics. I’ll just read your column then head to the shop.

  6. Hi George,here is latest on bitcoin split

    Dear Coinbase Customer,

    We wanted to provide an update on proposed changes to the Bitcoin network and what that means for bitcoin stored on Coinbase. You can read more about what a digital currency fork is https://blog.coinbase.com/what-is-a-bitcoin-fork-cba07fe73ef1.

    Our first priority is the safety of customer funds. In the event of a fork, customer fiat currency (USD, EUR and GBP) and digital currencies (bitcoin, ether and litecoin) are safe.

    On August 1st, 2017 there is a proposal to make changes to the bitcoin software. This proposal, known as Bitcoin Cash, is likely to create a fork in the Bitcoin network. This means that after August 1st, 2017 there are likely to be two versions of the Bitcoin blockchain and two separate digital currencies.

    In the event of two separate blockchains after August 1, 2017 we will only support one version. We have no plans to support the Bitcoin Cash fork. We have made this decision because it is hard to predict how long the alternative version of bitcoin will survive and if Bitcoin Cash will have future market value.

    This means if there are two separate digital currencies – bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) – customers with Bitcoin stored on Coinbase will only have access to the current version of bitcoin we support (BTC). Customers will not have access to, or be able to withdraw, bitcoin cash (BCC).

  7. I believe this to be a true Einstein quote……
    The difference between genius and stupidity is genius does have it’s limits

    • Quote Investigator: There is no substantive evidence that Einstein made this statement. Indeed, it is listed in a section called “Probably Not By Einstein” within the comprehensive reference “The Ultimate Quotable Einstein” from Princeton University Press. 1
      http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/07/28/genius/

    • “I never said half the crap people said I did.”

      —Albert Einstein

    • the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.” – Albert Einstein

      That’s the quote I thought AE made but am not to sure about it since he left long before I was born

      • Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.” – Albert Einstein

        That’s the quote I thought AE made but am not to sure about it since he left long before I was born