Real Urban Survival Tales, Prechoes of 1907

What got me to thinking about this (again) was the story about how a “Woman Found Alive After Being Stranded For One Month in New Zealand Mountains.” Interesting read.

There are other stories which will be spawning Survival stories to come, from efforts such as the Rescuers digging for survivors of Italy’s earthquake as death tolls climbs.

Survival stories (or the Urban and other) are around us every day. You saw where the Boy, 16, survived brain-eating amoeba contracted on vacation in Florida…

Survival stories come in all sizes: From the “miracle babies” that regularly survive virtually always-fatal diseases to the lone cancer survivor.

I’ve a lot on the topic and it never ceases to amaze me how the human “will to live” works out. Anymore, it seems like one of the few admirable traits of the species.

Disaster Branding?

On the other hand, pardon me if I am every-so slightly skeptical when I read how big names in the news seem to have an emergent interest in face time at disaster scenes.

President Obama may have been tardy getting to Louisiana, and Donald Trump may have gotten the bump in the polls from it, but that’s not the only story about “disaster branding” that’s out there.

Take for example the report Mark Zuckerberg headed to Italy after earthquake.

Not sure what the point of it is…other than to keep the brand out there and identified with disaster response and such. Sometimes, I just shake my head…and watch the hair fall out.

Still, next major disaster, maybe I should go, too.  I mean if I don’t have a golf date.

How Durable, How Good?

Having the prelims out of the way, on to this morning’s first economic data point. Hot off the server we have durable goods:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $9.7 billion or 4.4 percent to $228.9 billion,

the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.2 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.5 percent.

Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $7.5 billion or 10.5 percent to $78.9 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $232.9 billion.

This followed a 0.5 percent June increase. Computers and electronic products, up four consecutive months, drove the increase, $0.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $27.1 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,126.6 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent June decrease.

Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $1.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $772.2 billion.

The futures are down on the number aboutrr 35 Dow points.

In case this is your first visit to UrbanSurvival – the original – please be advised that we are mainly about three things around here: Using lessons on longwave economics, figuring out how to make a buck more than government as the watering down of the currency rolls along, and last, but not least, then being prepped and ready to help others in solid first-responder ways.

It’s an axiom around most fire departments for example, that you’ve got to take care of yourself so you can take care of others.

The Long Wave economics part of our research is in how the present period resembles another run-up and crash period in American economic history.

Most people don’t know it, but there were a number of major market declines starting with the 1907.

You see, your financial education is only beginning if you remember when the market peaked in 1929. (Don’t feel bad – try September 3rd.)

But where things really take off and get interesting is when you read beyond the most widely “sold” depression and get into others such as the 1907 event. Wiki it here

The Panic of 1907 – also known as the 1907 Bankers’ Panic or Knickerbocker Crisis[1] – was a United States financial crisis that took place over a three-week period starting in mid-October, when the New York Stock Exchange fell almost 50% from its peak the previous year. Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run included a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and a loss of confidence among depositors, exacerbated by unregulated side bets at bucket shops.”

The reason this is more fascinating (and relevant today, in my view) is that the current state of banking is very similar to what it was back then.

Allow me to elucidate:

Where we are today in economic terms is hard for people to grasp because in today’s world, long-term is considered the length of a text message.

BUT when you zoom out into the long-term decline of interest rates, you see that they have been falling since the middle of the 1980’s and were a major precipitator of the 1987 market panic.

What has been going on in banking as a result is pretty straight-forward. Banks committed to long-term high payments to depositors.

But as rates fell, that became more and more difficult to make a profit on.

So the banks went crooked because that was the simple answer.

It really started in the 1960’s when the Supreme Court blew out the prohibitions on interstate banking. That gave rise to usury in the credit card business (the case involved one of the Dakotas which didn’t have a lot going for itself in general terms, so it turned into the credit card usury center of the universe.)

That led to the money center banks.

That which we call today the SIFI’s – strategically important financial institutions – which are the crooks who insist they are too big to fail.

They’re not, of course, and there’s a 3,300 word discussion on point for our www.peoplenomics.com subscribers ($40/year) in which we point out how the banksters have spun The Big Lie.

After they went interstate, the Big Banks had to keep going down the crooked path because they didn’t plan adequately for falling rates, nor did they foresee the collapse of banking into an online commodity.

So…..they have taken their money and gone a-gambling with it. Except they don’t call it that – they claim it is safely hedged (by opposing crooked bets) and they have literally gambled the world that all players in the crooked casino will make good when the musical chairs stops. And they will do so via a process called continuous settlement.

The reason this process even begins to exist is that the whole world’s economy almost failed in 1974 when Bank Herstatt failed. (Remember what I said about crooked banksters unable to pay their debts in the casino?) The Wiki entry here is a must read.

With continuous settlement and offsetting bets, the financial empire owners are in the “What could possibly go wrong?”

And this is where we circle-back to point about the 1907 Panic: It was virtually self-arising.

And THAT is the problem that will be along next year, more’n likely.

Last, but not least, even if you’re too cheap to subscribe to Peoplenomics (you gotta work on your personal income and expense situation, right?) it is still quite probably important to understand that this week is like the week of February 14, 1929.

We still have time to go.

By the way, the 1907 panic looked like this:

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Which means that yes, a market can lose nearly 50% of its value in a good panic.  We will be pasting this over 2017-2018 results in a few years to check our work.

Think it couldn’t happen again?

Well, my bet *(currently and subject to change) gets back to this being that Feb of ’29 date.

(Bet this sure makes people want to come back and visit here again, lol…)

Defending the Hil

NPR is wondering: ‘Saving Lives’ Or ‘Selling Access’? Explaining The Clinton Foundation.

I have to get out the ViseGrips and give myself a good pinch after this kind of crap. The “saving lives” BS is specious:

There is no way in hell a public official can strong-arm “donations” – even if for more harps in heaven – without it being plain, everyday, payoffs.

When a public official discharges their duties of office, there is no provision in law for “extra fees”…and if there are it is crooked and wrong.

But of course, wrapped up in a flag and a dress, and a victim of an unfaithful hubby, seems people will salute a ham sandwich these days, such in the decline of critical thinking.

Vince Foster papers? Nothing to see here, just move along. We see the Washington Post jumping to support HRC (again).

Still, I might recommend the Texas State legislature not listen to anyone who hasn’t bought a box of Girl Scout cookies or been to the local church youth group car wash.  Be sure and also give to United Way, American Red Cross and then…only then…and if you’re lucky and promise more, than I can get you in to see…er….

(Don’t mind me…I’m the guy that wants HUMA”S tax records released, lol…)

Not that they’d listen anyway…interstate trafficking in lawmaking is the next boom business.  I’m just too honest for politics and I don’t to MLMs either.

The Implosion of Obamacare

OK, besides no coverage available in Pima County, Arizona, check out the Chicago Trib story on Obamacare rate hikes coming to Illinois.  Key quote:

Rates could increase by an average of 44 percent for the lowest-priced bronze plans, 45 percent for the lowest-priced silver plans and 55 percent for the lowest-priced gold plans, according to a preliminary analysis released by the state Wednesday.

How is it the price of a free lunch can go up so much?

You’ll have to ask the the Fo9ols on the Hll and the Golfer in Chief.  But what you wonder doesn’t matter because you’re not a for-profit insurance company with billions to lose if we had real national healthcare, you see?

Comments

Real Urban Survival Tales, Prechoes of 1907 — 12 Comments

  1. So sometime around Mar 2017 to start notifying Elizabeth that this is the big one???

  2. Darn, I keep forgetting to put in my name MDS – re J.P. Morgan and Roosevelt . . .

  3. I don’t see any ‘white knight’ like J.P. Morgan (shudder – the man was greed personified) coming to the rescue, unless you are thinking of President Roosevelt, who would have ‘chewed up’ someone like Trump in a heartbeat. He would have thought the man a bombastic fool, and he had the ‘chops’ to prove it.

  4. The earthquake in Italy hits one of the criteria is on the remote viewers I have told other people that each one of those are in distinctively different and I still believe they are which would mean that there will be three separate headlines that take the news and one of them will be the earthquake never will be a meteorite or something like that and then next one will be you guessed it man-made so let’s see how close we get it’s great to be wrong you know because when you’re wrong you learn from your mistakes when your right your head swells up and you go out with me Yahoo

  5. Those that place their trust in Politicians and what they say and promise…will require a colonoscopy to find where the politician has placed both…imho

  6. Color me skeptical about giving a thin dime to the ARC. Just another top-heavy “charity” (more obsessed with political correctness than providing meaningful relief) that typically doles out pennies on the dollars received. Gotta keep the Gulfstreams topped off with Jet A, donchaknow. I’d rather give to one of the local charities (http://www.brfoodbank.org/).

    Talk about “disaster branding”, the ARC has that in spades and the sucker dollars keep pouring in.

  7. Does anyone care to fathom a guess how many of the 535 (plus staffers) “sell” access to donors? I’d guess it 100%. That’s the problem. We’ll focus on Hillary selling access and Trump buying access, while the issue of our entire government being sold to the highest bidders goes on.

  8. Still miss your nostrodamus page linked to the top of this web site , are you going to bring it back ?

  9. Well I unfortunately took the time to read the bill for Obamacare. The one thing that stood out was that there was really no limit on increasing the cost, well there was.

    100% of the highest going rate was the limit. Go figure. After I read that it was all downhill from there.

  10. Regarding “continuous settlements”and “offsetting bets” is this why a typical mutual fund advises the potential investing risks such as:

    Counterparty risk: The counterparty to a derivative or other contractual agreement or synthetic financial product could become unable to honour its commitments to the fund, potentially creating a partial or total loss for the fund.

    Currency risk: The fund can be exposed to different currencies.Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses.

    Derivatives risk: A derivative may not perform as expected, and may create losses greater than the cost of the derivative.

    Equity risk: Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news.

    Leverage risk: The fund uses derivatives for leverage, which makes it more sensitive to certain market or interest rate movements and may cause above-average volatility and risk of loss.

    Liquidity risk: In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance
    and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares.

    Operational risk: Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses.