Random Walk or Manipulation?

imageManias are funny things.

After a while, when you watch the news flow and look at how markets operate, little bells begin going off now and then, especially when the market is on the verge of breaking to new 52-week highs, as was the case on Thursday.

First the set-up:

We were close to a breakout.  The S&P hit 2,120.49 during the session but closed at a modest 2,012.93 giving up a lot of its “gains” in the final hour of trading.

The Dow was more constrained: With a 52-week high of 18,288.6, the best the Dow could muster was 18,133.03 Thursday. 

And the NASDAQ, which hit a new 52-week high of 5,073.09, gave a chunk back by the close to finish at 5,056.06.

It’s when markets are at potential break-out points, like these, that we sit back and study the news flows carefully.

For example, there was an outflow of some ETF money that crossed at about 11:53 Eastern time and you can see how that (paradoxically?) seemed coincidental to a bump up in the market.  Funds redeployed, or?

And then there was that story from the A.P. about Russia claiming US forces were in eastern Ukraine.  That likely chilled out the final hour of trading. 

This morning, in the early going, things were relatively flat, but I mention this to you because once the market really breaks to the upside, we could run several hundred Dow points in a session, or two.  As we’ve been telling our Peoplenomics™ readers, the Trading `Model, which has been invariably bullish, seems to be doing far better than “gut trading.”

What this does is something else – if you’re planning on the end of the world any time soon in financial terms:  Since we know that historically, most major collapses don’t get organized until 55-days past a top, and since the odds of an upside breakout are very high, the earliest possible date for any kind of “collapsed talk” gets pushed out to 55 days some now, which would put us at June 18th or later.

No guarantees, and this isn’t financial advice.  It’s just that it’s worth noting this morning that barring lobbing of nukes or bunker-busters in the Middle East, no major earthquakes or other natural disasters, and assuming the Iran talks drag out past their next/latest rubbery “deadline” the prospects for a 1929-like market peak in the first week or two of September is starting to appear ever more likely.

For now, we’re content to watch for news flashes and study their timing and message. 

What is clear is that the global quantitative easings continue with China speaking today of further accommodations…and that should allow the global market binge to party on – dragging the US market up to stratospheric levels, along with it.

The hesitation would be that both China and Europe are still in the doldrums and that could mean a “sell in May and go away” event, with a break around June 18th.  Too early to bet on that, however, so just keep the fund switching numbers handy.

The “happy zone” for the 10-year Treasury seems to be about where we are and so regardless of what you may think of the Fed, the rally holding together is actually good news for any sane person who understands the costs attendant to global financial collapse.

If it comes, these are the good old days, so enjoy them to the fullest.

Durable Goods Data

Yum-yum.  Just the thing to go along with the cornflakes:

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March
increased $9.3 billion or 4.0 percent to $240.2 billion,
the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase,
up two of the last three months, followed a 1.4 percent
February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders
decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders
increased 2.6 percent.
Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three
months, drove the increase, $9.5 billion or 13.5 percent
to $80.3 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March,
up following two consecutive monthly decreases,
increased $2.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $246.7 billion.
This followed a 0.2 percent February decrease.
Transportation equipment, up three of the last four
months, drove the increase, $3.2 billion or 4.3 percent to
$78.0 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
March, up following three consecutive monthly
decreases, increased $0.3 billion or slightly to $1,156.4
billion. This followed a 0.5 percent February decrease.
Transportation equipment, also up following three
consecutive monthly decreases, drove the increase, $2.3
billion or 0.3 percent to $734.5 billion.

Hey!  Wake up!  the clever writing resumed.

Apparently that didn’t have an effect:  The futures were singularly unimpressed with the data.  The Baltic Dry cargo index continues to hover around 2009 levels – 600’ish.

Vatican Attack Foiled

As Italian authorities raided a terrorist cell with designs on attacking the Pope’s place.

Silly Season

Say, here’s a fine problem for critics who don’t like the Clinton Cash book that is making waves.  It will make it tough for the SOWWDS/Hildebeast supporters to target the reporter/writer when his next book – one rumored to be about Jeb – comes out.,

G. Warming Notes

Winter is back with snow as far south as New Mexico.  (Does this mean chemtrails are working?)

Coming to Their Senses?  Ure’s Right Again!

Our long fore4cast merger blowup arrived!  Comcast has called off its big hoopdy with Time Waning.

Tooting Our Horn Alert!  Remember what I told you when this PoS deal was pimped to to very gullible  announced in early 2014?  Lemme refresh Ure memory:  From our Feb 13, 2014 report here:

Buyers and Sellers

Big Story in the Wall St. Journal this morning about how Comcast has agreed to buy Time Warner cable for $45-billion smackeroos.

Despite my high-powered consulting operation, somehow they overlooked calling me – either side.  Which is a damn shame because whether this merger makes sense comes down to one ugly/nasty:  Technology shift.

Everyone know that the future is fiber – I mean that’s be just obvious as hell for how long?  Forever?

So, with the local telcos laying in fiber, and with lambdas coming to the desktop, seems to me that the company that groks the impact of more fiber, more fiber, repeat after me, “More FIBER!” best is the one that you should invest in.

Unless someone is going to start buying up telcos with their money in order to start owning more backbone…. Hmmm…

Apparently, someone at Comicalcast got on the stick and figured out (over a year later – maybe they’re a bit slow) that Ure’s Infallible Instant Analysis (UIIA) was spot on again.  I should bill ‘em for the money they just saved, anyway.

I are an exspurt at spotting turds in punchbowls.   You don’t need to be a Weatherman to (yada, yada…)

Life’s a Game?

I have to include this note for daughter Allison:  There’s a rumor that CoD will be moving to PlayStation…

(Dad would rather see you learning new skills that can advance the income line rather than playing video games, but everyone has to have some down time, I get that. In our world, though, down time is a riding mower and a Roomba…)

Since “the media is the message” though, we have to admit a sinister vibe when stories about the forthcoming Mad Max video game start showing up in (gulp!) Forbes.  Yikes!  Do they know something that hasn’t hit the wire, yet?  With a release date of September 1, is this like a hint about marketing timing, ya think?

Speaking of Which…

As luck would have it, though, the National Bank of Dad doesn’t do loans for video games.  Only adult education classes.

In the NBofD waiting area, we haven’t been able to master the Wii balance board yet, so maybe this is what aging is really about:  Trying to train up for Windows 10 while eyeing PS4 and should we put nitrous injection into the Lexus, to master the Tyler, TX drift?

What the hell happened to “progress?”

Comments

Random Walk or Manipulation? — 7 Comments

  1. “Everyone know that the future is fiber – I mean that’s be just obvious as hell for how long? Forever?”

    Might want to look again George. See the next generation sitting in front of a box in their living room? Nope, they carry around the “box” wherever they go. Wireless is the future, not fiber. If you want to know what the future looks like, watch what the next generation is doing. Add to that a wee bit more pragmatism (getting a wee-er and wee-er as the generations pass, I submit … but I digress) and viola … tomorrow.

  2. “Hildebeast”??? I’m no support of Hillary’s, but George you should be ashamed of yourself for engaging in this sort of sliming politics of personal destruction. Shame!

    • Oh, come on. Lighten up. She’s raised about $40-bucks per voter and is buying the election. Let’s have some fun with the election or put it on eBay where it belongs!

  3. Regarding your daughter’s comments about CoD exclusivity, she’d be referring to which company gets to release the additional DLC (download content) of additional maps and playable content that gets released in several waves after the game itself is released, not the game itself. For several years running now, XBOX has paid the publisher who-knows-how-much money to be able to release the DLC in advance of Sony, usually by a month or so. Why is that a big deal? Because if you’re a CoD nut (and the franchise is the best selling series in the marketplace on all systems that can handle the software, which is always Sony and XBOX at least) and want to get that new stuff before anyone else, then you’ll likely own the system that gets it first. (This constant jockeying for exclusive and first run additional content is a constant battle in the industry)

    Despite the price, companies don’t make much money selling systems. In fact, when they first launch, systems are sometimes sold at a cost loss and retailers don’t get much more. Retailers made the tidy profit of $9.99 per $500 XBOX One sold, and $12.00 per $400 PS4 when those systems first launched in late 2013. (I don’t know if or how much those numbers have changed, but it couldn’t be by much as the cost of production isn’t much less either and with the currency exchange rates between Japan, China, Euro and the US…..). The real money is made in selling the games, and not just CoD, which sells millions of copies, but all the others too, upon which a better margin is made than from selling systems, (but still only about a$5-$7 on the retail side. Not enough for any company to sell only new stuff. They must also have other higher margin products to sell, like tv’s, refrigerators, toys, food, or have a buy-sell-trade of used games where the margin can be high enough to actually operate a business by.)

    At this point, the potential for the new game is mostly all rumor as the official reveal by the publisher isn’t for another 2 days, and they, like the movie industry, like to trickle/tease further info over time to keep anticipation high.

    Here’s whats most interesting to me; in last year’s installment of CoD, the story plot was about a (future) major Private Military Contractor (the CEO played by Kevin Spacey) fomenting wars among nations in order to create more business as his company had become the de-facto army of many countries. While the game had this plot set 40 years from now, it is in fact, a reality of today’s world.

    Because someone with loose lips spilled just enough beans about the upcoming title, the publisher went ahead and released a teaser trailer. Again, the story is set well into the future, but it very much appears to be all about what’s all over the news today; artificial biometric and/or technologically enhanced human soldiers and how that will be used in wars. Appropriately, the sub-title of the game (by which they are more known now than by the Call of Duty moniker) is Black Ops 3. Here’s a youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Bfr053KdD6w to the trailer. A very interesting mix to view.

    From what I can tell, the Mad Max game was set to launch last fall when the movie was originally slated to be released. The movie is a reboot of the familiar Mel Gibson series. My understanding is that there were some movie production delays and re-shoots, so the game was put off so it will still launch about the same time and not reveal movie elements ahead of time.

    As far as mastering the Wii balance board, I wouldn’t give it much thought. At the least, it’s passé stuff now, and with your wide ranging interests and activities in so many other things….well, there’s only so much time in a day, and like the great philosopher Harry Callahan once stated; “A man’s got to know his limitations.”

    ’73’s!

    • But whenever I mount the balance board and go snowboarding in virtual land, I remember philosopher Callahan’s other guidance. “Are you feelin’ lucky, punk?” So I persevere…

  4. I don’t think Sweizer’s next topic shows anything other than his desire to make money using fear and hate as his emotional marketing tools. Generally works better when attacking libs, but any target will do, and lies are just part of making his sales dollars go up. Consider his 1998 book that claimed Disneyland is a front for the aggressive gay agenda and pederasts. Or the 2005 book he was eventually forced to correct and publicly apologize for that claimed to prove Congressional insider trading (how he managed to pick innocent targets when there were so many others, I can’t imagine)… In short, this guy has a business model, and plenty of dupes in the media ready to do his marketing.