Profound Investing Advice: What Investors Learn from Golf

WTF do people expect here?

I got an email from a reader (in the Comments section) who is very, very upset with what he takes as a lack of precision in terms of forecasting the minute of popping of the mega-bubble we’re now in.

Specifically, he doesn’t like the idea that when the year began, Ure’s truly announced a half-dozen, or so, potential “topping zones” and believe me, I understand the frustration.

But since this reader is also a Peoplenomics.com subscriber, I’m going to share some profound financial forecasting perspective  with him – and you as well.

The first thing to remember is that spotting markets (often a year, or longer, in advance) is a lot like sasquatch sightings.  You know the sasquatch was seen in the movie footage running left to right, but you’re not sure exactly how big it is because to do so requires there to be known items in his vicinity.

If we KNEW the height of a pine tree he’s standing by to be 7-feet tall – and he seems about that high – then we would judge his height accordingly.

But suppose it is a scrub pine.  Three and a half feet tall – so maybe he’s that tall, instead.

Depth perception can be fooled by surrounding objects.  Finance works in exactly this way.

Financial Markets and Golf

Another way to explain the “art of forecasting” is to look at it like you’re playing a round of golf.

When you tee-off (several years ago when the Wild Bull Market came into view) you estimate that it could go as high of 19,000 on the Dow, or it might scream all the way up to the 35,000 area.

Like different golfers, you’ve got different mega-bubbles to consider.  1921-1929 was the ball-crusher from the pin and we’re in mid-flight, about 75% of the way down the fairway in today’s game.

You would a forecast of a mega-bull based on how many, many rounds of previous “financial golf” have worked out in just this way.  (Not many.)

Some of those rounds were horrible.  Sliced on every hole, the score will be terrible.  Other times, you couldn’t miss a shot if you tried.  That’s how the market is played.

And if you’re looking for a very good short-term forecast, look at the statistical work in Peoplenomics last weekend.  Because that will tell you the average number of S&P points gained -in how many days- before a Fed meeting.  And count the trading days back and that’s when I will add to my long position.  Statistically, we should be weak into next Tuesday, however.

But let’s get back to the Golf analogy because it is a hellavuh lot more fun than listening to the Fed Choir yammer about raising rates.

Today we here from Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, and Fischer – all Fedtificating later on.

The Fed doesn’t play financial golf worth a crap.  They believe higher rates will drop the market, but as we’ve explained, just the opposite happened when the discount rate was raised three times in 1928.  Took a year, but….

Money washed out of bonds and into stocks.  That’s where the ‘29 bubble came from.  Raising the rates three times is what the present Fed seems likely to do and the hike on the 15th will be raise #2 if they do it – and there is an 80% chance they will.

January of this year I “teed off” on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory with my annual forecast.  Yes:  A March high was one of the projected highs.  So was the end of July, and even further out. We could go to next year.

A market close next Friday, lower than today, would proclaim this to be the harmonic of 9//20/1928.  Yes, that’s a long ways to run..a year before crashing.  Make it 13-months. 

The frustration expressed by our reader is that he wants to set-up for his second shot while the tee shot is still in the air.

NO!  No!  No!

I think the incredibly short-term low will come Tuesday, but there is so much wind out of Washington D.C. that this shot could land anywhere.

You have to wait for each shot to land…and that’s what the Peoplenomics Aggregate Index and the Peoplenomics Oscillator is all about.  It’s where things land for the week so we can size up the next shot.

It is has not wavered since November 11th when it said, to those willing to follow it (and I don’t make any claims for its accuracy except to say it was built to make me money), “Get thee the hell long and stay long, this is one hellavuh tee shot!

Now we come to the judgment part.  We see how the tee shot is still sailing.

A statistical study (last Saturday’s Peoplenomics report) said (if you think about it) that we might want to buy a low next Tuesday and that the odds are good of a rally going into the Fed meeting announcement on the 15th.  We should see something like a 20-point S&P rise.

But again…these are odds and we can never know about when a “gust of wind” or for that matter a “lightning storm, can blow-up the game while we are watching the tee shot.

Judging by the Oscillator this morning, the ball is going much further down the fairway.  The Oscillator only matters on the Friday close, however.

Reader Robert, though, is just itching to be Right There precisely at the landing spot, all ready for the next shot when the tee shot lands.  Chill, my friend.

If I said “OK, Robert, 231.22 yards down range, 14-feet, 5 1/2 inches west of the dead center of the fairway, and I will have the ball at your feet there in 17.03-seconds,” I’m sure he’d be happy.

I’ll be ready…backswing cocked and ready to play! , I’m taking my practice swings right now!”

You would NEVER play golf that way. 

Yet people want to (and do) play financial decisions that way. 

Maybe it’s because the gallery is packed with paid promoters and shills who cheer “always being fully invested” – and why not?  Most of them don’t make money unless you are all in…so it’s easy for them to promote “All in, All the Time…”

But we don’t recommend such an approach to golf OR investing.  You always have three choices: Cash, long, or short.

A golf game – and investing – has a pace.  Time to reflect, judgments to be made.

Seems to me the seasoned golfer (or investor) should take the tee shots, wait for the ball to land, then afterwards assess the factors that influenced its flight, while they mosey down the fairway to where the ball actually landed.

Hurry-up golf and hurry-up investing seem to lead to losing outcomes.

We know from watching how previous players have taken the next shot (adding to longs next Tuesday, for example) has paid off in the past.

But that STILL doesn’t modify the chance of rain, wind gusts, or (and this really happened to me once) having a ball land smack on the back of a large goose who was innocently swimming in a water hazard.

Nor does it clean up the mess of the Obama Shadow Government, the recusing of Sessions, or the odds of the crazies in North Korea teeing off a war shot.

This morning Dow futures are nearly flat, so as we take to the course this morning, let’s talk about something else.

Did you hear about that 2.5 miles-diameter “thing” moving around the ocean floor off the coast of California?

As we wait for this morning’s shot from the tee, we note that “Press coverage of Trump in his first month in office was 88% hostile, says a new study.”

The insurrectionists won’t take the day off, though.  They’re trying to pin a Hillary-like email faux pax on vice president Pence.  Might work, too, after all, unlike the Hillary press ownership, Pence doesn’t have a shadow government behind him on this one.

Why the insurrectionist shills are NOT touting the illegal alien gang members who were apparently involved in a “satanic murder” in Houston should be pretty obvious, though.

I would like to know how this happens and nothing is done about it: “Oregon judge is accused of helping illegal immigrant drunk driver ESCAPE from her courtroom while ICE agents waited outside to deport him to Mexico.”

Silly me, I thought judges were there to ENSURE that the law is applied evenly AND AS WRITTEN to all who appear.  Old America, huh?

Hand me a sand wedge, would you?  Yes, a ham and cheese sand wedge would be fine, if that’s all you have.  Let’s carry more clubs and less beer next time.  Seems to have clouded our thinking this morning.  Let’s talk about social justice or some crap like that, shall we?

Fore!

Comments

Profound Investing Advice: What Investors Learn from Golf — 14 Comments

  1. Tell it like it is, Oilman 2!! Well Said. And have you noticed that this largely all has come about since the arrival of cell phones? The ability of anyone with any leanings can communicate/influence anyone anywhere anytime. Not to go off into the weeds, but if this is the “latter times” or even just part of the societal downfall of the world, coincidence –> the Bad dude in charge of what is labelled Hell is AKA “the Prince of the Air.” AirWAVES me thinks, as chaos is what is to be sewn. Just 2 more cents worth.

  2. Hey George , I have an off-the-wall idea here.

    Send all of your articles to Jon first so he can make all necessary changes to them before you post.

    After all , he does maintain exclusive access to the truth. Dont believe me ? Ask him. He would be happy to verify.

  3. Well, I guess we could start looking for “Biff Tannen’s Sports Almanac so that the future is almost certain !!

  4. George have you tried the eyepatch thing and put it over your good eye and see if it allows the bad I to self-correct overtime,. You know how if you take a person and you do everything for them that they do not do things for themselves that might be something along the same line that the eye does if you allow the good eye to see everything it allows the bad eye to just sit back and relax and not really work at it so if you cover the good I up now the bad I have actually work for a living to get you around wake you up and go to the bathroom do those most important functions and your life wherever you’re at what are you going to do are you going to see if bye taking by taking the approach of covering the good eye up and letting the bad I-10 for a self because your daily habits will be changed if the batter doesn’t help you then you have to use other parts of your psyche to be able to do things that you want to do or find remedies and solutions or just playing folklore Les she live in the Modern Age where they have the ability to put you on a holographic bed and take a DNA sample from anywhere in your lifetime from the time you were a baby all up way up to your present age but I would like to know say hate in your twenties now they can take the DNA story if you will at that point in time and regenerate it through this holographic method that they use on Randy Cramer through the secret space stuff that they’ve darty done so as we know everything is a business model and they do not want free energy and they do not want Eternal health if you have an accident that can replace everything on your body through just running a scan over you and it will replace parks that are missing and hours so anything to say about that buddy

  5. George, chill… I wasn’t attacking you just questioning the advancing dates. When I first became acquainted with you on C to C, your forecasting was fairly short term, months out. The projection out to maybe a year for the big dump, through me for a loop. I can’t be the only one. Peace

    • I appreciate that Robert – and thanks. It all worked out as “The Plan” always doers for it 1) gave me an excuse to give a good answer while 2) talking about golf and 3) edjumacating people. We’s all good, bro…G

      • George, for me I do remember C2C appearances from you back almost 10 years ago which was trying to marry the 200x years to the 1929 era. I wonder if you’re just looking at this recent period as another attempt to match them up?

        I have listened since George Noory came aboard in 2002 and basically have recorded all the shows, so haven’t missed any of them.

  6. I am going out on a limb here, and suggest that every single news story is designed to exacerbate peoples fears. What they are doing is trying to alter the consensus reality we all swim in, to change the path it shunts us along in our lives.

    “Trumptards” (per Jon) are fearful of him being unable to make changes in the trajectory of our country, which they disagree with. He was elected based on doing this.

    “Libtards” (anyone not wishing Trump to change things) are fearful of any change in trajectory, even if it involves war or civil insurrection.

    Maybe we should call this the “tard war”, since the labeling and virtue signaling are so prevalent. What is missing is actual civil discourse, it being replaced with highly emotive tweets, soundbites, headlines and brief slanted writings by both sides.

    In the end, both sides are beating the fear drums, trying to corral a prevailing worldview. Both sides are fearful of what Trump will or will not do. And yet, the real reason to be glad it was Trump is that we did not rush into a war with the other very nuclear power on the planet. That danger hasn’t gone away, but it has been replaced with other manufactured threats.

    The interesting thing, IMO, is that the real threat is the US lack of meaningful GDP and the mounting debt ($122 trillion and growing). The only way to pay this amount of money is paid back is complete slavery, which the banks are hot for and the government as well – because they get to keep their incomes and toys and power. We, on the other hand, get to continue to work more and more, for less actual income.

    I don’t think draining the swamp can be accomplished without consensus among the American people. The purpose of the two party tribal system is to insure a grand division, and let the swamp creatures continue to operate at will. It will take a very major natural disaster or something equivalent in our realities to unite these two manufactured tribes.

    In short, until the pain of everyone NOT employed by government unites them, government will not be effective for us.

    Everyone has an axe to grind – what happens when the axes are outlawed? Or the axes simply become less important due to the flood waters sweeping everyone to their doom? United by common need, the axes slowly begin to point at the true enemy. Until that uniting event actually occurs, everyone is likely to continue this manufactured tribal squabbling. Fear will continue to be used to herd people into either tribe, and lies and fake news and fear will hold them fast in both tribes.

    Until we unite, the swamp will stay, the bog in DC continue to birth more denizens and we will continue to live in quite a perverse reality.

    • Trump is a better on our future like he’s better on real estate he doesn’t tell his opposition what he’s betting it’s put into the pot and then his bid knowledge an investigation what other people are going to do yet he hides his so when it comes time to put the bid down he will win and yes he will eventually get rid of the Federal Reserve he also Hyster put his bed way out there into the future like the next selection but at the same time do the time-travel little projects that we have indicate that and give us our goal will be one of our future presidents who is a truther and president Trump is a truther it’s just that he’s older and when he’s ready he will give it to someone who could do the job that’s younger that’s why I say you through the time travel projects that we know of Andrew basiago Trump Obama and Bush we’re all pre elected and the future will change on a dime so that being said I do not think we’ll have a prolonged depression as you will as George says another people say but we will have a weekend where things will change on a dime overnight and the new money system that we’ve already seen that’s being produced when it does happen and we already know that there are two different denominations or I should say structures of dollar bills that are used one for the United States and one for the other countries so now we know we’re on the right track but what I hear from people is like what kind of have a bad depression no we do not live in the same environment that we did back in the last one in the twenties and thirties we live in the electronic age where everything can be removed or added instantaneously but we know that’s not happening now because the NSA has to look at everything that goes through the system first in their headquarters in Utah soul what temperature is it is change the NSA and change the financial system of who produces our money reset and relieve all the debt that has been artificially made two places and people who are not for the Constitution of United States

    • Though I agree it all makes sense, I feel none of it will matter because the coming war with China will put paid to it all. You will get your slavery… through conscription! Bleak, but I can see no other way out. And as for the bonds.. meh, just cancel & start over.. because war!