Pre-Holiday Rally Ending?

There is one school of thought that the present rally is the start of a major breakout to the upside. But, we still have to close this week above the trend channel defining a Wave 2 correction off the February low and March-April rally.

Not that it matters.

In Long Wave economics, when you’re really living to the 50-90 year cycles, it is almost a moot point. That’s because there is a larger deal going on in the background; specifically the generational turnover.

Strauss and Howe discussed it in depth in The Fourth Turning, but if you are a fellow “gray” it’s easy enough to see. We don’t expect a major economic depression until almost all of those with first-hand memory of the Great Depression have moved on – out of nagging distance.

Those who remember the Depression never forgot it. It was a time of almost universal hunger. Local restaurants were often called “The Beanery” for a reason: Beans were cheap and a good source of protien.

Jobs were also scarce, such that the New Dealers were big on job sharing. I often wonder if that’s not a soft side to the Obamacare legislation as employers have reduced many workers to part time in order to avoid healthcare, but at the same time creating twice as many jobs for impacted categories. It’s a depressing thought, but not too much of a stretch.

When President Obama took office, civilian workforce numbers were 153.716 million and national employment was 134,580.

As of April of this year, the labor force was 158.924 million and employed was 151.004 million.

We are asked to believe that the workforce number has gone up 3.8% in 8 years. But a check of population data says 306.8 in 2009 and 323.636 now.

In other words, population is up 5.49 percent.

Where are the missing people, since workforce SHOULD be roughly equal to the general population growth that. But we see that in government statistics, it is not.

If you want to bury employment concerns, simply grow the labor force slower than the gen pop…and the difference is about what…2.69%?

If the workforce had grown proportionately, that would swell the workforce numbers by 5 million (just ball parking here) and that would show virutally no change in employment since the Bush days.

Ah, but the apologists will come screaming things are better.

Oh?

I don’t know about your children, but ours are all working at least one job – half are working two or more – and they are not able to save anything because costs have been going up faster than incomes for them.

And that’s the problem I wanted to mention this morning:

We need to elevated national record-keeping away from the political influences. As long as the Labor Department is headed up by an appointed Cabinet level person, those under that umbrella can only be trusted to put out what they are allowed to put out. As a result, with such glaring changes as the increase in Depression-era Job Sharing and the incredibly slow growth of the workforce compared to the population growth overall, public confidence will be eroded when people like me point out the statistical holes you could drive a Kenworth T6 through. (They are still making the T-6, aren’t they?)

Sure, there may have been some improvement in efficiency due to automation and computation. But those show up in manufacturing. Right now, only about 10% of the workforce is in manufacturing, the rest is in regulation, services, government, and so forth. Since manufacturing under Obama is nearly unchanged, we have become more regulated, socialized, insuranced, and serviced (yes, both meanings apply).

Not that we can change anything. The democrats are drinking the statistical Kool-Aid, the republicans under the Ryan Wing of the Obama-Corporate Party regurge the same pap. And thinking people wonder “What’s the point if everyone lies or shades the truth” at every turn?

Especially when you have a double-speaking leader who endorses sovereignty for Vietnam, but not for Syria where we continue to support the neocon insurgency regime change despite its miserable track record at creating new enemies for us.

Yeah…no point. Ure right.

On to this morning’s stats du jour from some government department which also reports to a Cabinet level.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $7.7 billion or 3.4 percent to $235.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 1.9 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.7 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $7.1 billion or 8.9 percent to $87.1 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $232.5 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent March decrease.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $80.9 billion. Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three of the last four months, increased $6.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,137.0 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged March increase.

Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, led the increase, $6.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $783.1 billion. ”

Should I bother mentioning the past couple of days have seen the pre-Holiday rally and either today, or tomorrow, some of the money should come off the table as sane money doesn’t want to be around long with the ECB (European Crooked Bank) meeting on the 2nd?

· Any central bank that does not maintain the purchasing power of its money is, in our estimate, a crooked central bank. Relativism doesn’t work in morals or money, but you may have worked that out for yourself. Except as a matter of convenience.

The futures were up 40 when I looked, but I went short at yesterday’s highs. We shall see if I’m right.

Campaigner in Chief

Obama: World leaders ‘rattled’ by Trump reports CNN. I will let you decide whether it’s the network or Obama doing the campaigning, or both.

But where is the critical coverage of Hil?  Instead we things like Politics|Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Rebuffs Report’s Criticism of Email Use. Awe, come on…

No, instead the liberal media try to make up headlines to beat the “women issue” against Trump with headlines like Donald Trump has a woman problem — 3 of them. All designed to take a non-issue (Trump and women) and reinforce it as a negative without doing so overtly. See how this works? Not as effective as Goebbels, for example, but effective, nonetheless.

Readings: Goebbels on the Power of Propaganda.  You may not like it, but there is the book

Meantime, you can read the report over here.  I assume you don’t need me to tell you what you’re reading.  I will leave that to the MSM.  I don’t need to fill time between corporate ads.

Reader  Note

No more food or water now until after the eye surgery early this afternoon.

The past four weeks have been a bitch: Only being able to see well enough to compose in 48 point font and having to copy into publishing apps, and so on.

I’d just like to say thanks for hanging in there. One thing that my eye problems have caused is a huge drop in the amount of information I can absorb and process, but that should begin getting back to normal in a week (or four) as the surgery and glasses to follow fall into place.

I appreciate the well-wishers and hope I haven’t bored you with too many details. I think it’s useful, however, since virutally everyone who lives long enough has to deal with cataracts, if you read a lot, fluorescent lights, not much eye exercise (outdoors, distance work).

The final configuration (left-operative eye) will be a new sewn in implant and glasses over. The right eye will be on hard contacts for a week, or three, and then I will transition to a new hybrid lens. These have a hard center lens, but they are surrounded by soft lens material for the long-wear comfort of the latter. The visual acuity of the hard lens is good, but glasses are still likely and at a minimum for reading and computer work.

So here goes kiddies…an update tomorrow.

Comments

Pre-Holiday Rally Ending? — 18 Comments

  1. Yup the federal BS report does have some flaws.. most people believe what they hear from a group of public servants whose sole job is to sell you and I by any means available on why they couldn’t read the very things written for the true influential of government of our nation they are forcing down your throat..

    “I don’t know about your children, but ours are all working at least one job – half are working two or more – and they are not able to save anything because costs have been going up faster than incomes for them. ”

    AMEN… big change in the seventies you could work one job.. after reaganomics came into affect you had to work one and a half.. now many have two income and a half and more..

  2. take the time to heal properly…it’s summer and the living is easy…get well soon

  3. “….but I went short at yesterday’s highs.” Bless your heart! Sometimes in the past I was bothered by not knowing what your current position was–knowing what you think of the future. It would help greatly understanding you rant to know what your CURRENT position is. (I do remember the great depression–but for us kids there were also benefits lacking the current crop of humans.)

  4. George, when you go short or long for that matter, what trading vehicle do you use? A leveraged ETF like Proshares offers or something else?

    And best to you and your recovery from your surgery. TIA

  5. George-
    Hang in there fella!
    I’ve been on the provider side of many eye surgeries. I do not underestimate the delicacy and importance of what you are receiving. I do send prayers (Quantum Universal) ones to help heal those particles that are lovingly called cells.
    You’ll do great…you have important work to do, so the Universe takes into account all the deposits you’ve made over the years.
    You are just on the receving end of playfullness called Quantum games of parallel universe this week.
    It keeps you focused.
    I appreciate you.

  6. “Those who remember the Depression never forgot it.” I hope so. Good luck with the surgery.

  7. Sorry I been dealing with my health issues and have not been reading your site for last few months. Take care and I hope all goes well.

  8. Sending thoughts for perfect surgical process and perfect healing.

    All the Best to you and Elaine.

  9. Wave Crave hit it on the nose. The largest population bubble is retiring. I am on the tail end of that boom at age 59…so, most Boomers are well into their 60’s and 70’s and dropping out of the workforce like flies. The increase in employment numbers are real and significant. Remember, Boomers kids have entered the workforce too. But unlike our parents, we are zero population growth parents. Less than 2 kids on average… So replacement in the workforce is dwindling, which may be why we have to have so many H1B visa workers fill our tech positions….That and our education system doesn’t emphasize STEM enough. Are those H1B visa workers a part of our employment numbers?

    On another note…a day can’t go by when I

    • Actually, the total population has nearly doubled since 1950. The children us older folks didn’t have have been imported. It has been reported that Millennials are a larger group than the Baby Boomers.

  10. Just to clarify: in the BLS report you hyperlinked, the total employed in Jan 2009 was 142.009M, not the 134.580M. That number was the non-farm employment number. The 142.009M employment number is the number that should be compared to 151.004M for April this year.
    With regards to the apparent disconnect between the slow growth in the labor force versus the population, the more telling question to ask is the growth in the population not in the labor force: it grew from 81.033M in Jan 2009 to 94.044M this April, a 16.05% increase. The total working age population grew from 234.749M to 252.968M, a 7.76% increase. If the working age population is growing faster than the population growth rate, one concludes that the driver in population growth is immigration of working age adults. Moreover, one can conclude that as the population not in the labor force is growing at five times the rate of the labor force, that this influx of working age adults is not entering the labor force. But you knew that already.

  11. The Senility Prayer –

    God grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked, the good fortune to remember the one’s I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.

    I enjoy your insights very much. Best of luck with the eyes.

  12. Just a reminder that Goebbels got his info from Edward L Bernays, the American nephew of Sigmund Freud. Bernays is acknowledged as the creator of public relations (propaganda). His work originated around the end of WW1 and he lived a long, super rich life. YouTube has various videos of him.

  13. Re: workforce/population growth. At the simplest level the numbers just mean more folks are leaving the workforce then entering. I think that this could be consistent with the general aging of the population and baby boomers leaving the workforce.

    • As a baby boomer who is having trouble finding employment, we are not ‘leaving’ the workforce as much as being ‘pushed out’. Age discrimination is LIVE and WELL.