When the Fed gets down to work tomorrow – and they are not likely to raise due to the proximity of the election, a curious story about Janet Yellen’s feelings has crossed the feeds this morning:
Still, with the current expansion of the M1 (cash and equivalents) money supply pushing the 10% annual rate, Yellen is obviously trying to talk tough in public while trying not to run out of printer’s ink in the back room.
In Long Wave Economic terms, we should not hit the ultimate high of the market until Q1/Q2 of 2017, but our long-predicted New Highs in the market are in, which gets me to the second main point this morning:
Did you notice the virtual “double top” in the S&P 500? Once on August 15th and then again on August 23rd?
This is a serious problem because the markets have a nasty habit of busting out of trading ranges with crashes evolving 55-60 calendar days after a significant high. Let me cut out our some spreadsheet cells:
This is not to say that the market WILL crash somewhere in the yellow window, but if we getd to 23 October, then I will grudgingly sell my short position and take the loss. (It will partially offset other gains this year.)
On the other hand, the Fifth wave up from the April 2009 low COULD be in, so we just need to see what the Fed does Wednesday.
I have to admit, the usual “Sell the Rumor, Buy the News” doesn’t seem to be in play…which is odd.
One way to look at it (since Big Money tends to be pseudo-liberal democrats) is that the Fed can read the polls and the headlines and going with a rate hike now, prior to the election, would be a nice thank-you to the very rich who have done marvelously under Obama.
Ideally, we’re still early for the Greater Depression, but Trump could reprise the historical role of Herbert Hoover.
For example, Hoover was rich and donated all of his Federal paychecks to charity. Thhat’s the kind of thing I would expect Trump to do. And, like Hoover, Trump is a successful global businessman, though Hoover was a Stanford grad while Trump was U-Penn-Wharton B-school. Still, neither was a traditional Ivy Leaguer.
Meantime, back at today, we see the futures are up, so Janet’s a cinch (think the markets) to “let ‘em ride” until another meeting.
If Trump wins, the Fed will raise in December and Trump will be blamed by the sore losers.
The bellwether 10-year bond is stuck at 1.7%.
ISIS Campaign FOR Trump
One of the few reason to even consider another democrat in the White House could be argued to be that the present occupant has “kept a lid” on domestic terrorism. But a review of matters shows that no, Obama has not been successful, so why should one of his former appointees to State do any better?
The record has become clear: Boston Marathon, the Nightclub, San Bernardino, NYC, Jersey bombs this morning.
What’s not clear is whether the average American will see the pattern before it’s too late.
In the meantime, we have…
Suspected Idiots Who Suspect Terrorism
The American people can, actually, discern the Truth when the facts are on the table. Not when they are covered up, though.
Yet, in the case of the Minnesota stabbings this weekend, where the perp was reported as spouting Islamist spew (asking one victim “Are you a Muslim?”) the national “intelligence” apparatchik is not able call events Terrorism when it’s in your face and at the mall.
Instead, President Useless gets on the
Clinton Cable News Network and blames everyone but the guy in charge. Blame Fox, blame Limbaugh, blame blogs.
Even the retards of the LameStreamMedia who are bound by political correctness disease ought to be able to figure it out,given this morning’s headlines in the Washington (Amazon) Post: “ISIS-linked news agency: Suspect in stabbings at Minnesota mall was ‘a soldier of the Islamic State’.”
CNBC optimistically figures “Minnesota mall stabbing could be realization of terror fears.” But the reality is not until AFTER THE ELECTION. Then it’s too late to change anything. Politicians go deaf once they get elected.
Meantime, five “suspects” are being questioned in the NYC trash-blasts and a series of devices were found this morning in New Jersey which were set off by the local bomb squad.
But it gets us to a couple of “not-to-be-missed” points as explained by our military affairs expert who is known as “warhammer…”
“Americans might have all but erased the 911 attacks from their collective consciousness, but ISIS is doing all that it can to bring war back to American soil for the first time since those tragic events in 2001.
Trump will likely politically exploit the ‘open borders’ policy of the last eight years, making an argument, sound at this point, that such policies have made America less safe. Whether true or not, the fact is terror (yes, I used the ‘T’ word) is back on U.S. soil and American citizens’ lives are at risk.
Expect more unsavory activity, both on the terror and the political fronts in the coming weeks. While the political rhetoric will die down somewhat after the November elections, Americans should get used to experiencing more terror attacks in the months and years ahead.”
Like it, or not, ISIS is campaigning for Trump’s election, whether they see it, or not.
The Globalists In Charge
A fine example, if there ever was one, of a corporatist/globalist suck-up not hearing the will of the people. Maybe he can’t read, either.
Meantime, there are other Big Messages for those willing to listen without preconceptions pounded into their heads by the corporate media.
For example, big wins for the Vlad Putin supporters in Russia this weekend. Again, it’s not that Putin is someone to play nicey-nice with; he just happens to be on the right side of an historical swing to nationalism.
The Flip Side Case
weaseldicks of the European Union. Take, for example Angela Merkel getting her but kicked in elections this weekend as explained in “Berlin Elections Highlight Discontent With Merkel on Refugees.”
Like many of the political correctness-infected people in America, Merkel has no intention of listening to the broader will of the people. Instead – and very much like Obama – she will just arrogantly “tune the lie” to make it more popular to the less bright Deutschers.
Like the Obama [false] promise Change (hardly any of which was good), Merkel’s “We can do this” will likely end up on the MSM scrap heap of crooked positioning efforts.
Does the word :Transparent: get used by anyone anymore?
Press Release of the Day: Tax Planning
ARLINGTON, Va., Sept. 16, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Bloomberg BNA is giving taxpayers a head start on the year-end tax planning and compliance review season with the release of its 2017 Projected Tax Rates, a detailed and comprehensive projection of inflation-adjusted tax items. With the upward penalty adjustments, the cost of noncompliance for taxpayers again increases in 2017, but individuals and businesses also can look forward to potentially lower tax liability because of higher deductions and credits. The full report is available at http://on.bna.com/SH3C304hLrP.
“The trend toward tougher penalties continues as Congress passed legislation that may revoke the passports of taxpayers with seriously delinquent tax debt,” said George Farrah, Bloomberg BNA Tax & Accounting Editorial Director. “For business taxpayers, Congress has provided some degree of certainty by returning to predictable annual increases for the business property expensing limits.”
With projections for the income tax brackets, personal exemption, standard deduction, and penalties, the report delivers information taxpayers and tax planners need to save tax dollars in 2017. The report includes more than 320 figures contained in over 55 Internal Revenue Code provisions. The Internal Revenue Service is expected to publish its official statement of 2017 inflation-adjusted amounts in a revenue procedure later this year. These amounts are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation adjustments that were published today.
Hopefully, tax planning IS one of your problems…