Ah, the foreplay that goes into the jobs report.
Before I open the envelope this morning, a word or three about handicapping this morning’s number.
If you look at the ADP jobs report this week (+169,000) and the Challenger Job Cuts report (61,582) we can sort of imagine a total jobs movement of about +108,000.
Not that this number will be anywhere near what government will claim: They can get away with all kinds of statistical shenanigans because it’s their calculator and they run it as they please.
Of course the other thing they do is “estimate jobs into existence” using the CES Birth/Death Model which will no doubt show tons and scads of single employee start-up companies. It’s only a coincidence, I tell you, that such numbers are impossible to verify. Why, that’s the kind of data we like most.
OK, enough wind…the envelope please?
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction. Mining employment continued to decline.
Household Survey Data In April, both the unemployment rate (5.4 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (8.5 million) were essentially unchanged. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.1 million, respectively. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Asians increased to 4.4 percent.
The rates for adult men (5.0 percent), adult women (4.9 percent), teenagers (17.1 percent), whites (4.7 percent), blacks (9.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.9 percent) showed little or no change in April.
Ure’s Infamous Instant Analysis
Here we go into the details: Half an hour before the numbers were released, the markets were pointing toward a model flat to slightly upward opening. Seems most of the jobs jitters were relieved by the two private sector reports.
1. Whenever a government report uses the term “Essentially unchanged” it’s time for a diaper-check.
2. How come the press release says employment gained 223,000 while the worksheet here says it was up only 192,000? Makes little sense to me but, then again, I got my degree from MBA’s R Us.
3. Average hourly earnings went up 3-cents last month. Don’t spend it all in one place. Use it for a down payment on a stick of gum.
4. Over on the no-longer-neatly formatted CES Birth-Death Confessional Page Here we see that of (the we-don’t-understand-how-they-figured-it) 233,000 news jobs, 223,000 were estimated into existence and of this sack of digits, 86,000 were in business and professional services and 76 thou were in leisure and hospitality.
5. 1.178 million jobs have been estimated into being this year. Ain’t that special?
The stock market, being easily fooled and drugged, is unable to see this as bad so the futures are still pointing to an open up 118 on the Dow, which shows that P.T. Barnum was right about all of the people, some of the time.
Print, Damn It, Print
Meantime, there’s the increasing money supply:
Dear Nike: Answer Me This?
Sometimes when the “fix is in” on something, it’s like too damn obvious. Here we are – members of the public – and even people in Washington with a need to know – like Members of Congress – don’t get to see or talk about what’s in the new super-secret (meaning it’s likely bad for the public) trade deal.
I’m just a peon, but would ya’ll explain to me how a big corporation can promise to create 10,000 US jobs unless they already know the details of what’s in the deal?
And – if that’s the fact of the matter, how come Nike has more knowledge than, oh, say my local congressoid?
This stinks to high heaven, but I doubt anyone else will bother pointing it out. Just answer me this….thank you in advance.
Nail Salon Sweat Shops
Madison Avenue Mike, who is totally on top of an in charge of haps in the Fashionista World, spied an article in the NY Times which might be an eye popper for you: “The Price of Nice Nails: Manicurists are routinely underpaid and exploited, and endure ethnic bias and other abuse, The New York Times has found.”
Like the insanity of $5+ coffees, nail work by a servant class is probably something we should all get over as a planet. Except, since the economy is based on full employment of everyone, even if it means some exploitation along the way, we have to wait for the economy to really crater before we come to our senses and stop outsourcing everything.
A society too damn lazy to do its own nails, or make it’s own coffee is either going to to end up with automatic butt wiping machines shortly (robotics that stink) or we are going to fall apart.
Hell, we’re an inventive kind of country – so maybe both.
Yo! UK! That’s Not Really Jesus
It’s actually David Cameron coming back for another round of leading the kneelers (Brits). As prime minister.
But the media coverage is sure trying to make it sound like THE Second Coming. No, only Cameron’s. The deification of politicians is sickening…
(But what else is there to do between pretending this is progress, drinking $5 coffees and wondering WTF kind of planet did we land on this time?)
Simple: Send ‘em off and don’t let ‘em back.
Friday Tunz: Newman for South Carolina
With the arrival of subtropical storm Ana in the Carolinas today, a musical interlude from Randy Newman…
Meantime, we are up to how many inches of rain in our part of Texas? 23.53-inches.
Boeing field in Seattle, once our gold standard for rainfall has a mere 12.83-inches, so we’re quickly arriving at the “Are you kidding me?” level.
All of which would be fun except for the 4.0 earthquake up in Dull-ass, TX4.0 earthquake up in Dull-ass, TX – which maybe wasn’t so dull perhaps after all.
We are still expecting at least a 7.0 between now and the 21st.
Did we have fun this week, or what? Airplane is still grounded, yard is looking strack, might as well continue with being serious:
Peoplenomics™ this weekend: Stock Screening 101 – or How to Buy Options as Scratch Tickets… c-yah Monday. Or, tomorrow if you’re part of the elite Peoplenomics cadre which makes all this possible. thank you.