Orders: Not So Durable & Not So Good –2.8%

imageThis is not a good one just out from Census:

New Orders  
   New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $6.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $229.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 4.2 percent January increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.9 percent.       Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $4.9 billion or 6.2 percent to $74.2 billion.   

Shipments 
   Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down two of the last three months, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $238.3 billion. This followed a 1.5 percent January increase.  

Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $79.0 billion.      

Unfilled Orders  
   Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down two of the last three months, decreased $4.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,183.7 billion.  This followed a virtually unchanged January increase.  
Transportation equipment, down three consecutive months, drove the decrease, $4.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $789.1 billion.

Inventories  
   Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven of the last eight months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $394.3 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent January decrease. 

Primary metals, down thirteen consecutive months led the decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $33.2 billion.

What’s good in the report is that inventories are not building.  But what’s bad is that while orders here are down, imports through West Coast ports are booming.  All of which is what happens when an asleep-at-the-switch government let’s corporations hijack manufacturing to least-labor-cost countries.

As a class project one of these days, we may match up voting on “free trade” and TPP with corporate contributions.  Ah, but why bother?  Baltic Dry cargo index is back over 500…just barely.

Look for the Dow to drop a hundred, or so.  And with the ISIS stories about, few will likely hold big positions through Easter weekend.

Moreover, three weeks of downside seems likely from here.  A pullback to the 1,943 S&P level is one way to look at this.  More this weekend for our www.peoplenomics.com readers.

Good for Gold, though.

The News–As a Cash Flow Problem

When you look at the day’s headlines, it is sometimes easy to see what various news items will result in…and imply where future flows of funds will be moving.

For example, the report that IS has 400 fighters trained up for attacks in Europe and elsewhere means that we will see another dramatic bump in global anti-terrorism spending.

Already there is talk of reorganizing the security systems at airports so that people will have to check in outside, rather than in.  And the Israelis, admittedly, are was ahead of most of Europe on this front.  In fact, claims this article, a whopping 40-years ahead.

About every local news outlet in a major market has reporters out looking for a “local angle” to the macro developments in Brussels.  For example, here is a Houston report on security at George Bush Intercontinental.

Still, no matter how much money we throw at problems, seems like government efficiency is marginal…organizations are slow to move and almost like to prove it, “

TSA won’t make airport security report deadline — due the day of Brussels bombings.

– – – – –

America’s southern border is still leaking like a sieve, too, no matter how many books of words the political class throws at that one.

And seems like you can’t trust government numbers, either (look surprised) as the head of the Border Patrol Union says people are regularly fudging numbers to make things look better than they are.

The cash flow here is rather immediate, because as Germany has experienced, hundreds of thousands of new arrivals do need places to eat, sleep, and since anyone can get a driver’s license….we know how that rolls.  In the longer term, says Pew Research, arriving immigrants turn into democrats much more often than republican or independent.  So that’s like a two-for.

– – – – –

Denver airport has reopened this morning after 18-inches of snow dropped on  the Boulder area north of the airport.

Still, getting around will be messy so if you are expecting a great sales team day in Colorado, y9ou might want to dial back expectations.

That and it is the day before a holiday for many. 

That storm is heading east today and millions will be able to sing that old Easter Carol “I’m dreaming of a white Easter.

Each year about now I reveal that I’ve always been partial to bunnies; current and former.

– – – – –

Politics is just as stupid as ever.  Time Magazine seems to be promoting the unelectable Paul Ryan by showcasing a major policy speech of his

This is a difficult story to file.  I put one copy in the Paul Ryan, Mouthpiece of the Obama Wing of the GOP file.  The other went in the politicians who aren’t hearing what the public is saying by running from the same-old-way politicians.

Meantime, the foolishness of University administrators is shining brightly at Emory University which is offering counseling for those offended with the words Trump 2016 being written in chalk on a school sidewalk.

As one Ohio outlet headlined:  “Emory Univ. students traumatized after seeing ‘Trump 2016’ chalk signs.”

All we can think is “Dear God, if that traumatizes the poor little darlings, don’t let them vote.”  They have a butt-load of growing the ‘eff up to do.

Still, since we are in the middle of half-ass republicans gang up on Trump month, perhaps the school president is angling to be the next head of the Department of Education.  There’s just no way of assessing the flow of favors that far out, yet.

More realistically (something the Ryan./Obama wing of the GOP is not good at) there’s a story that a new “Q POLL BLOWS A HOLE IN GOP CONVENTION FANTASIES.”

That poll, by the way shows Sander’s would beat Trump by even more than Hillary.

Why the FBI hasn’t completed their investigation of the email disaster isn’t clear…We pray daily for the health and long life of FBI Director James Comey.  “Yea though he walks in the Valley of Clintons…”

Even though political favoritism isn’t easily converted into cash equivalents, I am reminded of my favorite saying about politics.

Politics is the art of trade-offs.  You scratch my back and I’ll stab yours.

Lincoln, Lincoln, I’ve Been Thinkin’

Low oil prices has given Ford’s Lincoln design team a way to solve the oil glut singlehandedly:  While the new “Lincoln Navigator Wows At New York Auto Show” we have to ask about mileage.

Oil slides on mounting US stockpiles, strong dollar dominates things.

And speaking of Forbes, go look at some of the major brands that marijuana is outselling.

Volt Jolt

As Tesla Model S price hike rumored for US.  Time to buy a bigger piggy bank.

Comments

Orders: Not So Durable & Not So Good –2.8% — 22 Comments

  1. George said “All of which is what happens when an asleep-at-the-switch government let’s corporations hijack manufacturing to least-labor-cost countries”

    I always imagined you as a freedom loving person. What role do you believe the Fed has to tell me where I should set up my manufacturing? I assume you would be OK, if the Fed should force me to do it in Detroit, because you know those poor folks really do need the jobs? It is none of their business, or shouldn’t be. If they want more American jobs, stop creating an environment where the employer becomes peoples Mommy and Daddy and we are allowed to pay people their worth, not a meaningless number decided by useless politicos. Maybe then people would be willing to improve their worth to the world rather then just being leaches.

    • Try to read what I wrote:
      America’s southern border is still leaking like a sieve, too, no matter how many books of words the political class throws at that one.

      And seems like you can’t trust government numbers, either (look surprised) as the head of the Border Patrol Union says people are regularly fudging numbers to make things look better than they are.

      The cash flow here is rather immediate, because as Germany has experienced, hundreds of thousands of new arrivals do need places to eat, sleep, and since anyone can get a driver’s license….we know how that rolls. In the longer term, says Pew Research, arriving immigrants turn into democrats much more often than republican or independent. So that’s like a two-for.

      Only a fool would buy current US immigration numbers solely from Pew. For one, DHS admits they don’t know about 1.7 (and more) million. At least that many are not in the data and it swamps claims that the flow has dropped a million.
      The ICE workers are saying under oath that they are being coopted into lying. Yo0u don’t believe sworn law enforcement? And it’s not just Mexico.
      DACA is not law. It is administrative bullshit being challenged in court. It cove5rs 2-million.
      8 US Code 12 IS LAW and by the measure of LAW (not made-up crap) repeat after me: The border is still leaking like a sieve.
      At least stop drinking the Obama Kool-Aid and visit the non partisan CIS.org site more often.
      You are placing great faith in Pew. Wait…I’m sure you’ll attack the Center for Immigration Studies… (that’s data picking)
      Show me where the US Govt data is.
      Show me where it says in a Govt report that it include the DACA people Find me a 2014 and 2015 DACA number. I have not found it. THEY ARE HIDING THE DATA.
      I can find the 1.7+ M missing who came in – that’s in DHS docs.
      Hint: The 2014 immigration data should have been released in Oct 2015. It is still not out from DHS.
      Newsroom axiom: Bad news travels slow.
      When numbers of slow, there’s generally a political reason.
      The 2013 release was Oct 2014. The 2014 data? Yeah…lotsa luck on that.

    • thanks for the Pew link. Beats the biased breitbart (Trump owned?) blather. P.S. Wanna guess how many border patrol, ICE, etc are ON THE TAKE??

  2. For every thousand hacking at the branches of the tree of evil, there is only one hacking at the roots. Find me one problem in the USA that is not being caused by someone paid with (your) tax dollars. And if they don’t get enough of your tax dollars, they just borrow (print) what they need. Why should they stop doing what they are doing when it pays so well?

    Ask yourself, looking at the track record of the last five (10+) years of the decline in the USA, where do you really think the next five years is going? Trump is allowed in the public eye to give you suckers hope so that you can hang your head for another 4 years after the next election. Do you really think Obama authors any of his executive orders himself?

    And looking at the markets as any kind of economic indicator is simply manifestation of mental illness. I feel like someone saying “if you close your eyes and run across the freeway it will not go well,” and then they do it anyway, simply because someone told them that someone actually did it years ago and made it across.

    Personal integrity is gone in the USA, replaced by laws written to tell you what is right or wrong. Personal integrity, like patriotism, has been declared a diagnosable mental illness, the sign of a criminal mind. Believe in it and you WILL start feeling crazy. Act on it and you will be charged as a criminal.

    Tell me again why you are not trying like hell to leave the country. I get it, you still have the freedom to choose what imported product you are going to buy to store in your garage, if you still have one. Because you sure as hell don’t have the freedom to pick who is going to run the government that considers you “too small to save!” The president is one person who still has to wade thru 435 members of congress and seven Supreme Court justices to implement change, every one of whom is profiting in the current environment.

  3. The more the republican establishment comes out against Trump, the more I like him. I would sure like to see the party get back to it’s roots. Fiscal responsibility, small government and a strong military. Abortion, gay marriage and immigration are not the platforms I joined the party for.

  4. Good idea, moving check in outside the building. Less to repair when the bombers blow up the crowd.

  5. The oligarchs who rule us are fools. They make cheap crap to sell here to enrich themselves all the while not grasping a simple concept. By eliminating good paying jobs here, they are wiping out their customer base. Dumbasses.

  6. What are the little darlings going to do when body parts are blown up on sidewalks from terrorists? Pee their pants!!!!!!

    • It’s OK, grown ups like us will be about to change them (still). Thought we would get past that.

    • Why do you think Amazon.com is breaking all of it’s former sales records?

      Why do you think malls are going vacant and shuttering their doors?

      With today’s service options, a person can stay in his home and rarely come out.

      As the fear of bombing by mudslimes grows here in the US, the economy will crash.

      Now, the Controllers can indeed be blamed for our economic downward slide.

  7. Pew Research also says there are 1 million fewer illegal immigrants now than there were in 2007, and that includes every person with deferred deportation. Also, most come through regular ports of entry, ie airports, and overstay visas. Over 100,000 net negative immigration from Mexico these past seven years, with many of the out-migrants taking their US citizen children with them to Mexico.

    • What Pew says is “From Oct. 1, 2015, to Jan. 31, 2016, 24,616 families and 20,455 unaccompanied children – the vast majority of them from Central America – were apprehended at the southwestern U.S. border, double the total from the same time period the year before. Apprehensions of unaccompanied children rose to record levels in fiscal 2014, then decreased by 42% in fiscal 2015.”
      What Border Agents tell us they have been instructed to LIE about the numbers.
      HUMINT trumps press releases

      • So you have no problem whatsoever with the far larger number of Cubans accepted and given automatic legal status with no checking whatsoever?

        Humint with an agenda from the union leader who wants more members should be viewed with a speck of cynicism,

      • Since the number of Cubans – who haven’t blown up much since the Bay Of Pigs and tend not to blow up mosques of the other sect or indigenous people in their target country for conquest is low, they should still get some background check. Y9ou wouldn’t happen to agree the OBnation is derelict again, would you?

        The report wasn’t about increasing agents, though that it needed. It’s about the crooked middle of GUS – the blow in the wind people who don’t question illegal orders and who deliberately mislead. I assume you know DACA is the main reason for the “statistical improvement” – if they are in “suspense” they are not illegal until so adjudged and only 1% are because 49% to 10% go democrat when they naturalize?

  8. If we go to something like an off-airport “Transfer Terminal,” where we all get off our to-airport limos, cars, trains, or busses to be searched and examined, and then get on a “to-the-gate” transport, the terrorists will just blow up the Transfer Terminal — because the goal is dead bodies and fear. If it happens at the T.T. or the gate, or on the plane itself hardly matters.

    Am Israeli security expert many years ago in a TV interview said, “The trouble is, you Americans search for weapons. We Israelis search for terrorists.”

    He was (is) right. We’re searching for the wrong thing.

    Radio Ranch

    • Roger that.

      Even worse is trying to “apprehend” them AFTER the attack. That’s the wrong approach (IMO). We need to stop them before they get in.

      But that’s not politically correct.