NOW FOR A CORRECTION–BUT WHICH ONE?

Although the Dow fell 200 and change THE DOW FELL 200 AND change Thursday, my concern now is that we are not yet to the break-point of this decline. 

The reason may be understood two different ways: ONE, would be a discussion of how things look from the Elliott Waver perspective, while the other is from the Trend Channel view.

Let’s talk about Elliott first.

As you know, we have completed what looks like the three waves down of the larger IV which followed the completion of the highs last summer.

Now there are two ways the IV could have gone. One way would be a three wave decline, in which case, the rally we are in right now – though it seems to be trying to end – could have been the start of a fifth wave, blow off top.  On the other hand we still have not rallied past the old level of what would be the Elliott Minor, three of IV,  and so on  this basis, we have to look at the other other potential for this rally, namely, that we could see the markets simply setting up to make that larger IV into a V wave down to complete the rally from 2009.  

So how de we tell which is going to happen?

Two ways come to mind. One would be to look at domestic p9olitics, international affairs, and so on, and try to make an informed decision this way.

It is a fool’s gambit, of course, because there is nothing particular to be learned from the press anymore, since it’s mainly a rewriting festival based  on corporate press releases. The days of dyed-in-the -wool enterprise journalism are long past.

(From here on we opologise for the capital letters, so please excuse the inconvenience … )

THE OTHER WAY WE COULD LEARN, THOUGH, WOULD BE TO DO SOMETHING REALLY SIMPLE:  LOOK AT WHERE THIS RALLY FAILURE PULLS BACK TO.

iN OTHER WORDS, AS LONG AS WE DO NOT SERIOUSLY PENETRATE THE LOWS WHICH WE EXPERIENCED IN

Peoplenomics this week-end will cover this in more detail. I’m off to another eye appointment.

Comments

NOW FOR A CORRECTION–BUT WHICH ONE? — 13 Comments

  1. ONLY a non politician and business person can weather what is coming straight towards the USA…..TRUMP fills that slot…may God have mercy on this country….believe it or not….imho

  2. My bet is still on greed running the system and pulling the strings of our legislators.. I think when they actually get elected in to office they campaign for good reasons but eventually conceded to the power of the system ( I probably would to so you can’t really blame them. LOL ) … I had given my new prediction earlier this year after reading what my opinion is an insanely written spending bill that was passed with only a couple contesting it..that what I thought was that the one percent since it is now basically open season on the general public that they will cause a false flag stock market collapse sometime this spring so they can buy at bargain basement prices to slingshot themselves into the next universe in earnings when the real collapse happens.. but then I have been wrong before.. but if it does happen I sure won’t be surprised..

    • then again.. there is this battle of the titans going on that I sure never expected. and what will the titan’s do if someone they don’t want makes it into office… it will be interesting ..

  3. AIIP-Asian Interbank Investment System. CHIPS-Chinese Investment Payment System.

    China is dumping Treasuries and moving to a gold standard. The world no longer needs the dollar.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. is busy wasting Billions promoting useless war in Syria, Libya and Ukraine.

    Yesterday, the main stream media failed to notice that China denied the US aircraft carrier USS Stennis and accompanying naval vessels permission to make a port call in Hong Kong.

  4. They Will have to devaluate, all countries will have to devaluate – this is just biding time and exchanging roles – you devalue a little and then we’ll devalue a little – you complain a little and we’ll complain a little – the problem is as George has explained many times and that is we are at or nearing the apogee of this mess and like in the old saying – He who has the GOLD makes the rules and that is China – everyone and their brother is short the Yuan and expecting the collapse of China but if they suddenly set the price for good delivery gold at $50k,$100k or $150k then the shorts get destroyed and the US is laid bare and ready for the ultimate crash because there is no gold in Ft Knox and if there is any it has been sold so many times you could only guess who has the real ownership and suddenly the only currency worth anything is the Yuan – game over.

  5. I want to point out that ‘Elliot’ looks good in retrospect. Your broker though requires precise orders, and therein lies the problem with ‘Elliot.’ (Speaking with 60 years experience).

  6. Did you notice that gold was surging?Well,the Phillies are starting to do better this year as well.The two have moved in tandem ever since gold’s re-legalization in 1975.

  7. Hope you’re doing well After your surgery. I’m glad I am people omits subscriber cause this column is a cliffhanger.

    Thanks for all your work!

  8. I’m more concerned about the metals rally than the indexes. If they explode in a short period of time it may indicate bye bye USD, heavy inflation,shortages, the end of life as we know it!
    We may have a very difficult scenario looming!
    When you wake up in the morning and silver has broken $20 or $25 you might want to consider what would happen if the dollar is devalued??