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Saturday August 28, 2004
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Web Bots Finally Right on American 587
If you're a long-time reader of this site, you'll recall that the web bots of www.halfpasthuman.com made a prediction of a terror attack prior to the Veteran's Day crash of American 587. Based on the web bot forecast which suggested the attacking force could come by way of a marsh, and would be on a "commemorative meeting" that later turned out to be Veteran's Day 2001, we pinned the crash of American 587 on terrorists despite the "official" government claims for almost three years that the crash was due to problems with the vertical stabilizer.
I took a fair amount of ridicule and heat for sticking by the bot forecast - something that I'm sure got me labeled as a bit of a nut job. But...
Today, in the Canadian National Post, we learn belatedly that the second web bot forecast - and the first post 9/11 web bot run, was correct and that the downing of American 587 was indeed a terrorist operation: http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=a4f777f9-958a-4538-9c71-7f6d797676e8
Although at the time, a lot of reader interpretations thought the bots were forecasting an attack on Hoover dam, here's what was in the run:
Posted Nov 2, 2001 prior to the crash at http://urbansurvival.com/webbot2.htm (extract)
* On children (an large assemblage or group of children) - goal seems
to be to shock us at our core.
* Commemorative meeting
* On persons around children, meeting around leader
* Will be an attack aimed at our core beliefs - not economic in nature.
* Attack will come from the air and/or from the ground. (Not sure if
this is food supply, or literally underground)
* Timing is "darkness ascending" (waning of moon) - and time seems like
today or tomorrow
* Magnitude of the event is likely to be on the order of 9/11
* Possible biological attack with "breath", "vital organ", "removal of
stagnating", "his person soiled", and "spilled meal" being reported back.If you were constructing the kind of event that would fit perfectly, it
would be something like a Veteran's Day observance in a stadium full of kids
with a meal included and notables like the President attending. The attack
would come either through the water supply (below aspect) or above (aerosol
biological), or possibly through a food supply, and it would be in
Washington or NYC.
Instead, we - sadly - got American 587 shoe bombed over the soggy marshes near Queens by "his person soiled" with explosives.
Although the technology was in its infancy at the time, and didn't have the precision demonstrated in the run that presaged the Northeast Power Outage in 2003 (with a discussion of closeness of fit at http://www.urbansurvival.com/bothit5.htm ) we propose that the web bots-- in the first run following the June 2001 tipping point run that forecast the "world changing" event that turned out to be 9/11 -- delivered a forecast with elements so far above chance or coincidence as to make any such suggestion ludicrous.
It's also why we take the present run, suggesting another major "lifestyle changing event" coming to light in September - and which will be pretty much at the tip of everyone's tongue by November 1st -- so seriously.
Double Terror in Russia
Not surprising: both jets in Russia that were downed this week were targets of terrorist explosives: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3607886.stm Why the rest of the U.S. media is not reporting as we did that Islamic extremists claim credit, is beyond us, except maybe they're sitting on the story to fill up Sunday editions...
Israeli Spy Allegations
Several US media are reporting that charges will be filed next week in another Israeli spy case - this time against our own Pentagon: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/08/27/eveningnews/main639143.shtml
We think it's worth mentioning that Israel seems to be spying on a lot of it's friends lately, including one thought to be traveling in Asia on a Canadian passport: link And not heavily reported by US corporatized media is New Zealand's reported imposition of diplomatic sanctions on Israel over Mossad hijinx: http://www.wsws.org/articles/2004/aug2004/moss-a10.shtml All in all, it doesn't sound very friendly to us, especially because it may all relate to possible future military action against Iran's nuclear facilities...
Our questions: "Was the person named pushing Israel's desire for Iraq to be invaded? And, was Israel behind the forged documents on Niger uranium that was one of the basis of the WMD claim.?
We expect this story is why Colin Powell cancelled his trip to Athens, not the trumped up talk of protesters.
The real question is whether the web bot forecast of "travel restrictions in September " which we've tied to money perhaps leading to a freeze on aid to Israel for spying - and possibly manipulating of US policy.
And, if travel restrictions (on money) come to the US as bots imply, will it be retaliation or an attack against our banking system by foreign interests?
Indian Banks Pushed to Merge
With a couple of recent bank runs, the Indian government says it will welcome bank mergers. http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_975349,0002.htm. What's behind it? Possibly instability in India's banking business, but time will tell.
Friday
The Peak Oil Concept Attacked
With a major Peak Oil conference underway in Europe this week, we have been receiving a number of emails expressing the notion that Peak Oil is nothing but a speculators pipedream, designed to drive up prices. We find it an interesting coincidence that articles like this one at the "Center for an Informed America http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr64.html questions the reality of Peak Oil. Other sites go further with one claiming, in part, that Peak Oil is a "Zionist Scam" http://www.joevialls.co.uk
What's at the heart of many such attempts to "debunk" Peak Oil is the fact that once an oil well is pumped dry. it tends to recover some capacity over a period of time. Whether the "recovery" is caused by residual oil slowly percolating into the recoverable area of a well, or whether there's some yet-to-be-understood way that the earth perpetually makes oil is open to debate.
Unfortunately, a simple thought exercise demonstrates the problem clearly enough. Suppose you have a water well that can at maximum, produce enough water for 10 people. Everything is fine and the well provides for the whole community. But then two children are born. Suddenly, the well is no longer sufficient and depending on the well's capacity, it will decline over time until two users are eliminated through natural means or death from dehydration.
That's the reality of Peak Oil. It isn't that there isn't oil in the ground. It's that we are, as in the example above, far beyond the carrying capacity of wells to recover. It takes some precision of thought, but when you read about "peak oil" and ask "Why are we still pumping", remember the example of the village and the water well. They reached "peak water" when the new users were born and started making systemic demands. That "peak water" would not become visible to them until the well was pumping mud is a problem of limited perception. That's the reality of Peak Oil as far as we can judge it, regardless of whether the earth might be making more petroleum every day.
What we note, most importantly, is the timing of these attacks: They coming during a major peak oil conference and in close proximity to American elections which feature an incumbent president from the oil patch.
Russia Air Terror: Islamic Militants
Word out of Russia today that explosive traces have been found in the wreckage of one of the two airlines that went down on Tuesday in what looks to us like a terror doubleheader: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3604134.stm
Notable is that we now have a militant Muslim group Islambouli Brigades claiming responsibility for the attacks: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/27/muslimclaim.shtml With the attacks coming on a web bot hot day, we wonder what the first ten days of September might bring.
Terror Sanctions: Not Working
Although - thankfully - there have been no major terrorist incidents in the U.S. since 9/11, there's a UN report out that says elsewhere, freezing bank accounts and the like has little effect on al Qaida operations: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3603862.stm I don't know if you've read the reports, but by one estimate the cost to the terrorists of 9/11 was under $500,000 dollars.
Najaf Militia Get Away
The standoff at Najaf has ended - for now - with the militants around the shrine giving up their weapons to followers of Ayatollah Sistani - slipping into civilian clothes and slipping away in the crowds. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/AEC82110-047A-43BB-822E-E5ACBF473216.htm in a series of events that lets the shrine defenders get way. Now there's the possibility that al-Sadr's movement could join the US-backed government in Baghdad, but that remains to be seen.
Florida's "Body Snatchers"
Because we're so skeptical of the incredibly low loss-of-life figures following Hurricane Charley, we thought we'd point out another first hand report from the area that's worth reading at http://worldvisionportal.org/wvpforum/viewtopic.php?p=451#451
Flu Shots On Hold
A biggie this morning: shipment of 50-million flu shots is being put on hold because of contamination concerns: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040827/ap_on_he_me/tainted_flu_vaccine_8 Our hat's off to Chiron CEO Howard Pien for moving swiftly to insure vaccine integrity.
CFTC - Anyone Home?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission - the regulators of the commodity business - announced yesterday that their chief of staff is checking out http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6082649 Meantime, a number of CFTC commissionerships are vacant according to posts floating around the www.gata.org discussion groups. It's always of note when a person from the financial regulatory side takes a jobs (which we presume pays well) over on what seems to be the side that is the object of regulation. Ah, the rewards of being a subject matter expert is the conventional logic. But the unconventional logic?
Global Tipping Points:
A great BBC piece on global tipping points - places and events that can happen at one place on earth - which would have a cataclysmic effect on the whole planet. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3597584.stm A couple of examples: The Antarctic Ice Shelf sliding into the sea and raising sea level (which would kill millions in a day and a billion or more in months) or the shut down of the North Atlantic Current which would auger a huge climate shift to cold for Europe and central European farmer.
XML Arrives
If you have an RSS news aggregator, you can add our top two headlines to your daily reads via our XML link above. It's one of those things that I've been meaning to get around to..and finally worked into the schedule. Speaking of which....
Schedule: Update times are generally Monday - Friday at 9:30 AM Eastern, and weekends as the spirit moves me... Inside Report is posted about 5 PM Eastern each Sunday. Bulletins posted as warranted.
Choose One?
If you like the free side of this site, you'll love the weekly in depth topics of our Inside Report series. So, to keep things going, please either a) subscribe - click for info about subscribing or b) Tell someone you know to drop by - click here for an email to send them. - Thanks!
Thursday
The (ongoing) Attacks on Oil
You may not be keeping track, but according to the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, there have now been 101 attacks on oil and energy installations in Iraq. http://www.iags.org/n082604.htm The latest overnight in an attack on eight parallel pipelines that cross a single bridge 20 miles southwest of Basra.
What's more interesting is how the story is being downplayed (e.g. not mentioned) on most U.S. media outlets, but it's making headlines in China: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-08/26/content_1889897.htm
Oil Talk
President Chavez of Venezuela says he is ready to meet with George Bush to see if there's some way to mend a few fences: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F067891A-5514-479B-8B85-B71E48B34B07.htm In the short term, we don't see much improvement coming. We expect the present dip of oil prices to around $40 to be short lived.
Sistani Arrives
The US continues to attack parts of the city as Iraq's top religious leader showed up this morning in Najaf: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/default.stm. We're waiting to see if he issues a call to drive Americans and allied forces out of the country. And here's one for our "shoot [at] the messenger file: Iraqi police rounding up journalists: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5DDCEF52-60B8-4FC6-ACFF-F794BBF8E6D7.htm
Meantime, with the web bots looking for a Hermit to lead an uprising, and we think they might have fingered Sistani, we find the comments of University of Michigan History Professor Juan Cole exactly on point when he wrote yesterday:
"If Sistani does lead a popular march of the sort the press is describing, it might be the most significant act of civil disobedience by an Asian religious leader since Gandhi's salt march in British India. And it might kick off the beginning of the end of American Iraq, just as the salt march knelled the end of the British Indian empire." http://www.juancole.com/ Aug 25 comments.
Prexactly what the www.halfpasthuman.com web bots have been predicting for a couple of months in their I Chingish ways we think.
Meantime, another web bot prediction is for a halt in travel - something which we've taken to mean an end to money flow or a bank holiday. But an astute reader wonders if it might be referring to a yet-to-be-loosed super flu bug that would give government to opportunity to shut down travel: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040826/D84MJVB80.html Might fit, but then again...wonder if the flu would be enough reason to cancel elections, huh?
Who's Behind Wahabbism?
According to David Livingstone's article at http://www.rense.com/general56/globalistscreatwahhabi.htm the Globalists are playing one faction - the Liberal-Democratic" West against political Islam played by the Wahabbi. No, I have no clue where the neocons/Dominionists fit into this, but a starting point might be http://www.yuricareport.com/Dominionism/TheDespoilingOfAmerica.htm
Terror By Sea
Only a matter of time says a top ranked U.S. general: story. No telling if it will be stowaways in a cargo container, a commandeered ship, or a stolen sub. Any of these alternatives would be hard to defend against.
What are the Odds?
Of two Russia jets crashing of accidental causes within minutes of each other? Answer: about zero. The Russians have opened a criminal investigation http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/25/planeprosecutor.shtml but in the meantime, victim families will only receive compensation if there is no terror: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/26/compensation.shtml Compare this with the generosity shown victim families of 9/11.
Hurricane with no Job Impact???
The latest from the Department of Labor on unemployment claims: "In the week ending Aug. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 333,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 337,500." http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
If this sounds a little too good to be true, you might be surprised to note no mention of Florida or Hurricane Charley in the report. I noted there was no impact from the hurricane in Florida and only an increase of 970 claims in South Carolina before round filing the report as pre-election hype.
High Cost of Wetfoots
I'm almost sure it's not politically correct to call an illegal immigrant from Mexico who sneaks across the Rio Grande a wetback - judging by the low water level's I've seen in the El Paso area, it'd be more like a wetfoot anyway - but now that I have your attention, I'm pretty sure a think tank study saying illegals cost the US $10 billion a year won't play well or be PC with employers who hire them and then turn around and cut U.S. worker jobs and wages: http://ktla.trb.com/news/nationworld/nation/ktla-082504immig_lat,0,1228272.story?coll=ktla-news-1 Key: The study says programs to legalize undocumented aliens would up the cost to $30 billion - but then again, that's maybe what the Nanny State had in mind...Hats off to the L.A. Times & KTLA for having the chutzpah to report the study in Mexifornia.
Please note that I like Mexico and the Mexican people. What I don't care for is the outrageous double standard along the shared border. Try as a Norte Americano crossing from the U.S. to Mexico, demand the Mexicans you encounter learn English, give you a Mexican driver's license, then ask the U.S. State Department to lobby for U.S. rights in Mexico and while you're at it, steal a Mexican's job and see how far you get. Flying Homeland Security stealth aircraft won't help, unless they're willing to strafe civilians. What's needed is more people on the ground with Border Patrol - or maybe instead of Israel building an illegal wall we should be building a legal one.
XP-SP2: "Blind Date" Kit
If you have (wisely) been holding off on the installation of XP SP2 until you figure out how safe it is, Microsoft has come to the rescue...sort of. They've issues something called "Application Compatibility Testing and Mitigation Guide for Windows XP Service Pack 2" If you have (lots of) bandwidth you can download the service pack. Or, if you're like me, you might want to click over to http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/downloads/updates/sp2/cdorder/en_us/default.mspx and order the CD. I figure I'll get mine in 4-6 weeks.
Wednesday
Super Typhoon Update
Note for Web Bot Skeptics
Although I have tried to explain web bots in simple terms, if you would like a more detailed explanation of how they work from Cliff - the c, perl and prolog virtuoso behind them, please click over to http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPHRONGELOS_0521.htm We get tons of email both at Urban Survival and Half Past Human from people who basically say "(Because I don't understand it) They can't work." Well, just like an automatic transmission works regardless of whether you understand it or not, so do web bots... sorry.
Is Sistani the "Hermit"?
There was a part of the most recently posted web bot run over at www.halfpasthuman.com which seems to tie in this morning with the return of Iraq's most influential Shia leader from medical treatment in Britain - Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3596760.stm
Now here's why Sistani's return has my complete and utter attention. From the most recent web bot run, there was an image of a "hermit" kind of fellow returning to the country (which we presumed to be Iraq):
"We note that the entities still show the 'return of a wise man/hermit/sage' to Iraq during this period and the 'rising' of the 'small' in support of the 'daring/adventurers' which will result in the defeat of the USofA army. Now, being a US citizen, and a lifer member of the US military, this is particularly unpleasant news to hear/convey. However, the courageous people of the American Military have been mis-used/wasted by BushCo greed and theocratic self-delusion. As such (nothing begun in evil can end in good), all resolutions lead to the defeat of the American presence in Iraq as it was, and is, mis-guided and a mistake at the behest of evil. So, since no good can come, one can take solice in that defeat/expulsion of the American military from Iraq will at the very least, end the nightmare and prevent Americans from dying for this evil years hence in the future (which is the basic *plan* of TPTB)." http://www.halfpasthuman.com/group/community/alta_08232004.htm
So here's the sequence of events to be watching for if we understand the web bot outputs right:
-
Sistani is planning to go to Najaf in the next couple of days.
-
The web bot picture has his, essentially saying something like "Enough of this!" and beginning a Shia uprising against American and existing civil authority in Iraq.
-
As this happens, the web bots seem to suggest a "retreat to the south" with much loss of life - something that has shown up in earlier web bot runs.
While we have no way of knowing for sure if Sistani is "it" we couldn't help but notice that on an Indian Muslim web site it is noted:
"Grand Ayotallah Ali Hussain Sistani, merjaa ( the sole spokesman and arbiter ) to Iraq’s majority Shiias, is almost a hermit who hardly ever ventures out of his abode in Najaf, in the heart of Iraq’s Shiia south. Sistani lay low in the early months of the American occupation of Iraq, prompting inspired comments from establishment media gurus in U.S. that he was implicitly condoning the occupation.
There is no doubt that Sistani’s religious aura, and the clout he commands among Iraq’s Shiia population, did keep Iraq’s Shiia-dominated south relatively calm and controlled whilst the so-called Sunni Triangle in the middle and northwest of Iraq imploded into massive defiance and resistance against the Americans. " http://www.milligazette.com/Archives/2004/01-15Feb04-Print-Edition/011502200455.htm
Thus, with language references to Sistani as a near "hermit" and some 80 references to this aspect of his life in a search engine review, LINK, we think watching Sistani very closely should be one of the military's highest priorities. He seems, from one interpretation of the linguistic shifts tracked by the web bots, to have the potential to cause a general uprising and force a U.S. retreat (to the south). This morning, fighting rages near the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D794661E-7179-4C06-B0BC-2A3B8366E3CC.htm
If it indeed happens this way, don't blame us. Remember: we tried to sell the technology to the U.S. government (at a very reasonable price) in October of 2001 following our July 2001 run which forecast a world-changing event and even pinpointed Las Vegas more than 45 days ahead of 9/11. Oh well.
Looking ahead, it still looks like the first week of September will be an incredibly busy event cluster. Not only might Iraq be making headlines, but we're looking for some major mis-speaking at the Republic National Convention. We also expect a surprise medical condition to force one key figure to bow out of the race, and there should even be one horrific - public opinion changing - use of excessive force that will horrify both sides and cause police to moderate their use of force from that point forward.
If you like to have a "fuzzy picture" of what the future holds - which includes some kind of a travel ban/banking holiday in September, I can only recommend Cliff's work at www.halfpasthuman.com . It's very "I Ching-y" to read, but when you get the hang of it, it's very, very impressive work. The web bots also suggest a soaring price of gold in September - so we'll see how that unfolds, too
Thinkin' Texan
Thought for the day from a fellow Texan: "If Muqtada al-Sadr were holed up in a church in Waco, the fighting would be over by now and all residents would be dead." And no one would be prosecuted...
Fine Time at Shell
The SEC has fined Royal Dutch/Shell $120 million over their statement of reserves. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040825/sec_shell_fine_1.html. We keep waiting for the "other shoe to drop" on the oil industry - namely how much overstated are reserves of other companies? More to the point, when are we going to see some real - verifiable - numbers about how much is in the ground in the Middle East and in other big wells (Mexico's Cantarell field, for instance)? Matt Simmons over at Simmons & Company International has been pushing international disclosure with good reason: It would be nice to know just how close to Peak Oil we are - or more likely, how far past Peak Oil are we? Readings at: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Russian Crashes: Terror or Accident?
There is a lot of speculation about that today. One of the two planes that crashed in Russia yesterday had apparently sent a hijacking alarm code, while the other was reported by witnesses to have exploded in mid-air. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3596354.stm The Russians, predictably will not relate this to terror or the problems of Chechnya or Ossentia - because to do so would admit to a soft underbelly. They're looking at it, though: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB1VJ5GBYD.html
Web Watch
Speaking of Russia, you might want to bookmark http://www.internettrafficreport.com/main.htm for possible use later today and through this weekend. That's where you can get a snapshot of what is happening with the internet. The reason it should be on your mind is a Russian report of a planned internet terrorist attack over the next few days - starting tomorrow (Russian time). http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/24/internetend.shtml
Sprott On
Sprott Asset Management has released a 71 page report called "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-term Manipulation of the Gold Price". The press release and full report are at http://216.219.139.199/gold/NotFreeNotFair_Letter.pdf and it's a must read. If you don't think it worth reading, ponder this part from the executive summary:
"• At the root of this crisis was the speculative gold carry-trade. Investment banks, both on
their own behalf and for others, borrowed gold from central banks at very low rates of
interest (e.g. 1% per annum), sold it into the physical market, and invested the proceeds in
higher interest-bearing instruments. The accumulated gold loans, far in excess of annual
mine production, constituted a large physical short position that could not be covered.
• Long Term Capital Management was short approximately 300-400 tonnes of gold. This
position appears to have been assumed, either by a counterparty bullion bank or a central
bank.
• The Bank of England’s well-publicized gold sales were a political decision designed to
manage the price of gold.
• The U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and Federal Reserve have been active in a
scheme to depress gold prices. Information available in the public domain suggests that such
intervention started sometime between 1994-1996. A 1995 Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) transcript reveals that the ESF conducted multiple, undisclosed gold swaps. We
believe the unwillingness of the U.S. government to reveal the details of these transactions
indicates that their purpose was nefarious. It is unclear what, if any, support the U.S.
authorities received from foreign central banks prior to the concerted post-Washington
Agreement intervention."
Eye poppers, huh? It looks like the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee www.gata.org has just had one heck of a report to add to their efforts to break up gold price manipulation. (Right on to Bill Murphy, Reg Howe and others in the fight - along with a huge "Thank you" to Sprott Asset Management!)
Spam Busts
Good piece in the NY Times today about a crackdown on spammers by the "internet police" Link Most spam doesn't come from overseas, although there's a lot of use of foreign servers. Most of it comes from "get-rich-quick" schemers here in the U.S.A.
New Sponsor
You'll notice that I've got a link to The Daily Reckoning now (right side, above). Definitely should be on your list of places to visit.
VoIP Growth
More growth in VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) phone service as Sprint and Mediacom join forces. http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBBOYLFBYD.html. If you know anyone in Spring, tell them we're still waiting for DSL Service to come to this part of Texas (Montalba/Brushy Creek if you're a Sprint exec.) It's been promised "soon" for several years now... ah hemmm..
Dieoff News Group
Jay Hanson sent me a note - the Dieoff Q&A mailing list is being set up. It's a follow up to www.dieoff.org and Jay's work there.
The next session of the Dieoff Q&A list is scheduled to begin on Oct. 1, 2004. I will present a step-by-step systemic view of the present anthropoid ape overshoot crisis (energy and ecology), and also present the one-and-only "humane" technical method that I have identified to reduce the ape population to back within carrying- capacity.
I will answer your questions at each step because I wan't you all to understand the nature of YOUR problem.
It should be exciting! Posting will be limited to those who show a basic understanding of the 3Es (energy, evolution, ecology). Sign up now for this politically-incorrect mailing list discussion at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/the_dieoff_QA/
Jay
Many gems of clear thinking, including this from today's journal summary:
"The value of a printed dollar is intrinsically zip. We are , for practical purposes, out of the gold standard and into the oil standard. (Or energy standard if you prefer). A dollar basically represents an equivalent in oil (energy). So you're saying use a symbol of oil to buy oil? Or was that tongue in cheek and I missed it? MC >>
=======================
Moderator: It was "tongue in cheek". The intrinsic value of the dollar -- and most of economy -- is zip."
Clear enough to us...
Durable Goods
Up - but not convincingly so - that's the gist of the Commerce Department report out this morning. http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6066827 A couple of highlights: Aircraft orders were up more than expected, the previus month was revised up (gee, surprising, huh?) but overall the "expansion" isn't expanding very fast...
Choose One?
If you like the free side of this site, you'll love the weekly in depth topics of our Inside Report series. So, to keep things going, please either a) subscribe - click for info about subscribing or b) Tell someone you know to drop by - click here for an email to send them. - Thanks!
Tuesday
Will Georgia War with Russia?
The president of one-time Soviet state Georgia says war with Russia is a possibility the Georgian people have to be ready for. According to Mikhail Saakashvili, Russia is giving arms and aid to rebels in the South Ossetia district. The rebels in turn would like to join North Ossetia rather than be part of Georgia:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/24/saakashvili.shtml While the Georgians are saying they won't provoke a war, they would like international talks.
This story certainly would explain why the Russian "defense budget" is increasing this year. Ever since word of major defense spending increases leaked out, Russian military bosses have been tripping over themselves to explain that it's just to make up for inflation, escalating costs and to take care of veterans. But with troubles continuing to brew in Ossetia we can see where they might want to beed up the internal security apparatchik.
Million Barrel a Day Problem
A key story to be following at the Oil Depletion Analysis Center is that the world is losing a million barrels of oil a day due to depletion. A key quote:
"The analysis shows that output from 18 significant oil-producing countries, accounting for almost 29 percent of total world production, declined by 1.14 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2003. The annual rate of decline also appears to be accelerating, contrary to the widely held view that depletion progresses slowly. Based on data in the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, production from this group of countries peaked in 1997 at 24.7 mb/d and by 2003 it had fallen to 22.1 mb/d. In 1998 their total production dropped by less than one percent, whereas last year it declined by nearly five percent. " http://www.odac-info.org/
Our take on this continues to be simply summarized as demand outstripping supply. Therefore, while we expect oil prices might wobble around a bit in this $40-$50 range for possibly months, the days of $30 oil are toast. Mark your calendar: Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections three day "Global Peak Oil" gathering in Koblenz-Lahnstien Germany October 19-21. Conveniently close to Oktober Fest, jahvhol?
How to Steal the Republic - Legally!
Matt Savinar, the young California lawyer turned oil shortage activist, has written a phenomenal piece, the implications of which are just now sinking in to my thinking. What Savinar has done is make a list of the rights U.S. citizens can be deprived of with no action from Congress should oil prices, terror attack on energy infrastructure, or depletion threaten the American economy. Here's the short list:
"•10995: Right to seize all communications media in the United States.
•10997: Right to seize all electric power, fuels and minerals, both public and private.
•10999: Right to seize all means of transportation, including personal vehicles of any kind and total control of highways, seaports and waterways.
•11000: Right to seize any and all American people and divide up families in order to create work forces to be transferred to any place the government. sees fit.
•11001: Right to seize all health, education and welfare facilities, both public and private.
•11002: Right to force registration of all men, women and children in the United States.
•11003: Right to seize all air space, airports and aircraft.
•11004: Right to seize all housing and finance authorities in order to establish “Relocation Designated Areas” and to force abandonment of areas classified as “unsafe.”
•11005: Right to seize all railroads, inland waterways, and storage facilities, both public and private.
•11921: Authorizes plans to establish government control of wages and salaries, credit and the flow of money in US financial institutions.
In other words, severe drop in the world's oil production = massive economic meltdown = Germany 1939-1940 here in America 2004-2005.
And it would be legal. No input by Congress. No review by the Supreme Court. No protesting in the streets. No calling into the talk shows. No posting on message boards. No running to Canada.
Nothing."
This doesn't even get to the impacts of individual state declarations and pronouncements of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Savinar's book, "The Oil Age is Over" is sold out, but you can preorder the expanded second edition which will start shipping the first week of October. It's absolutely "must read" material because energy will influence your life from here forward. Ordering information at
Near Miss!
In a story that is being nearly universally ignored Astronomy Magazine has an article disclosing that on March 31st of this year, a space rock came within 4,000 miles of striking earth! At a maximum 30 feet in diameter this one would have burned up: http://www.astronomy.com/default.aspx?c=a&id=2411 Also worthy of reading - details of a 35-million year old meteor strike in Georgia - http://www.macon.com/mld/macon/news/politics/9478787.htm Like they say, "close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades."
Iraq Attack
Two bomb attacks overnight have been aimed at Iraqi ministers of environment and education: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/013286FD-C932-4058-B50B-C9823FB789B9.htm Meantime, an ultimatum of this evening has been issued to the fighters clining to the Shiite shrine in Najaf: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/3EB322D6-588E-406B-B3C1-B80A9CB9B39D.htm
Florida: Where are the Bodies?
We're continuing to head from our sources on the death toll in Florida. From a Pinellas County resident comes this report - emphasis added:
Punta Gorda is a true retirement community and the elders did not want to
leave their possessions. The deaths they are not counting are the ones
that occurred in the hospitals. A few of the hospital's back up
generators did not work. So those on life support died. One of the shelters
which had about 500 people in it had its roof blown off. The Fire
Stations In the path of the storm had their buildings collapse and they could
not get the trucks out. So I suspect that many builders of the
shelters and fire/police stations that did not hold up will be sought after.
Schools, emergency buildings and shelters are suppose to built to code
to with stand a category 5 storm....most did not."
Another Florida resident suggests the additional body bags ordered in might be to contain dead livestock. We're still skeptical of the lowball death toll figures from FEMA (25 as of the latest National Situation Update). Unrealistically low, but if they don't count hospital deaths, even if storm related.....
Earth Oddities: Bee Attack
Six people have been hospitalized as a result of a bee attack in the Barstow, California area. http://www.sacbee.com/state_wire/story/10480889p-11400230c.html 11 people in all were attacked by what are thought to be Africanized bees - this is the second big attack in California this month. Oh yes, the story lead coincidentally comes from the Sacramento Bee...
Durable Goods Due
We'll try to get you an update on the Durable Goods order report due out from the Commerce Department at market open time. We don't expect bad news - we are less than 3 months from the election, right? You mean this isn't Wednesday?
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Monday
Iran Nuke Plant Delays
Iran has delayed the scheduled start-up of a Russia-built nuclear plant on its territory: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3588694.stm. This plant is no doubt one of the targets in Israeli and Washington neocon gunsights.
Russia, meantime, is trying trying to close on more than one nuclear contract with Iran: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/23/nuclear.shtml. To our way of thinking, Vlad Putin and George Bush ought to talk this kind of thing over when they get together as they frequently do.
We find great irony in the name of the city where the Iranian nuke plant is located: "Bushehr" - pronounced "Bush HERE". Ah, the Universe has its wry sense of humor, does it not? Anyway, we figure a Western attack will come before inauguration day 2005 regardless of the elections (which we remain hopeful will be held).
We note this morning that the US is still supporting more Israeli expansion in the West Bank area: http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040823_301.html - The U.S. support for illegal settlements we interpret as prepayment for an Israeli attack on Iran to come later.
Monday Gunfire
...is being heard again in the holy Shia shrine area of Najaf: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3589750.stm which makes it just another Monday in Iraq. Except, of course, for reports that U.S. rockets have damaged a holy shrine wall: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DB51A68A-569C-4109-A700-87F398E3FA31.htm This could be a flash point this week. Earlier web bot runs have predicted what could be interpreted as a generalized "rising up" against U.S. forces followed by a retreat to the south - we'll see.
Speaking of Iraq, Elaine's son and his driver are both in Walter Reed recovering from his Humvee roll-over in Baghdad down into the river. Thanks for your prayers.
War Game
This week's Inside Report includes a very interesting thought exercise - I put together 30+ pages of "war college" decisions. Subscribers get to try their hand at cobbling up a set of Middle East decisions that will end in either success or global thermonuclear war over oil... subscription info.
Sudan's Range War
Back on July 30th, a UN resolution told the government of the Sudan to bring the upstart Arab militia in the Dafur region to heel or face international action. The story picks up today at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3589396.stm Over a million refugees so far in this nomadic Arabs versus the Fur, Massaleet and Zagawa farmers in the region. Sounds like a wild West range war on steroids to us.
Bank Strike Tomorrow
Yes, if you need to pull a few Rupees out of your Indian bank account, you might want to get the cash today because tomorrow a national bank strike is scheduled: http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=13550499
Phone Tapping the Web
We've mentioned Voice over Internet Protocol phone systems to you in the past (VoIP), but it hadn't occurred to us what a wiretapping nightmare such systems would be for the federal government's warrantless snoops. Good story about it in the NY Times today LINK. FCC hearings to follow, but if they're like most FCC hearings, the decision has already been made, just like we believe it was is the broadband-over-power lines case. They're just doing what they've decided is best for us. And what makes something good? Why, industry lobbying, of course! Example: the power company and communications industry attack on HF amateur radio which would be damaged by new broadband over powerline plans - already turned down in technically savvy countries like Japan: http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/HTML/plc/
Cautious Markets
The price of gold is down a couple of bucks in the pre-opening this morning. Although the futures seem to point to a modestly higher open at this hour, we don't see any reason for a continuation of last week's option expiration rally this week. Remember the web bots say something will start going seriously wrong in the world as early at August 25th, with things heating up measurably September 1 through 10 and full public awareness seeping out by the 25th of September or so. What's so interesting is that the data suggests bigger lifestyle impacts than 9/11 which means whatever it is will be a "mother giant" of an event to change lives globally.
Economy's Oil Drag
Bush spokespersons are starting to admit that high oil prices are starting to drag on the economy, although there is better coverage in foreign press (like Russia's Pravda) than there is in most U.S. media which seem tripping over themselves to put Swift Boats ahead of economy stories: http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2004/08/23/55556.html Russian company oil revenues in the first half of this year were up 32.7% to $25 billion+ http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2004/08/23/55559.html
Oil meantime was holding around $47 as oil exports from Iraq resumed today http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6043762 Part of the reason is the continued fighting in Iraq http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/businessline/blnus/14231504.htm
Was it "Day After Tomorrow?"
Big worries in the Los Angeles area as the National Weather Service computers caught what might have been a tornado forming. Drudge Report says it may turn out to be a computer glitch: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash4ws.htm
Libraries "Mall'ed"
Interesting trend spotted by the Christian Science Monitor: Libraries are starting to open in shopping malls: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0823/p12s02-ussc.html. Makes sense to us to go to where the customers are... Now if they'd only put a book return at grocery stores or gas stations...
Live Free or Secede
One other interesting trend story in the CSM today: Folks in the Killington Vermont area are talking about joining New Hampshire for tax reasons: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0823/p03s01-uspo.html We've often wondered why Vancouver, Washington (just over the river from sales tax free Oregon) doesn't petition for the same kind of tax-driven redrawing of state borders.
Spaced Out
A couple of interesting headlines about UFO's today. One is a Russian account of military encounters with alien craft: http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/94/378/11873_UFO.html A reader suggests you read the interesting account of alleged U.S. Air Force flying saucers at http://www.usafflyingsaucers.com/ And speculation has reopened into the mystery blast in Tunguska Russia back in 1908: http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s1183018.htm
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