Updated: Saturday Sept.
25, 2004
"Follow the money. Speak plainly."
Site Contact: george@ure.net Best viewed at 1024 X 768
Navigation:
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
Related Sites
Half Past Human
Web Bots
Urban Survival Recommends...
Favorite Colleagues
Political
Economic Alert
We have seen repeated references to something big happening this weekend. We're especially sensitive because of the clustering of data around the 25th that we have mentioned for some time. Specifically, the chief architect/ designer of the web bot project sends this update - based on data that is being thrown out of web bot runs, but which is showing up with enough frequency to be worth watching.
"Many reports/queries/repetition of the idea of a disaster this
weekend affecting markets with a big whollap on Monday. So far
have been able to isolate over 300 of these references.
Undoubtedly much duplication, still though. and multilanguge.
most seem centered on Sunday night
Meantime, a reader who has been following web bot forecasts suggests that the CBS News episode on possibly faked papers about Bush might be a fit for one set of predictions:
"> I would say that the cbs/dan rather falsified documents story is a hit
> on the "lie revealed, people losing faith, old men grumble" bot run.
> As close a hit as anything I have seen thus far..."
Yep, that's a good fit. With this in mind, we plan to be paying close attention to news broadcasts on Sunday night.
Tortugas: There but Devastated
We have been monitoring various foreign press reports about the whereabouts and conditions on Tortugas, off the north coast of Haiti. The best summary of events was found by a reader at a Spanish language site. Direct from translation engine:
"The authorities feared that the island of the Turtle had disappeared The confusion appropriated Monday humanitarian organizations and authorities of Haiti, who throughout the day feared that a tidal wave had made disappear the island Turtle, to the north of the country. In one first aerial inspection that became of the zone Sunday, the authorities assured that the island Turtle had not been sighted. Even temporary prime minister of Haiti, Gerard Latortue, got to show his preoccupation before the possibility that "he had disappeared" with his 26,000 inhabitants. To last hour of yesterday, diverse organizations denied this situation and assured that, during the day, they had been able to put itself in contact with several inhabitants of the island, where the situation, like in the north of Haiti, was catastrophic. Even the UN could, to last hour, to fly over the island and to assess the damage that are the awaited ones. Very similar to those of the north of the country, specially in the coast of the island." Source: http://www.belt.es/noticias/2004/septiembre/22/tortuga.htm Translation engine: http://babelfish.altavista.com/ The report continues:
"Islands in danger The environmental organizations alerted of the danger who run certain islands like Turtle due to the climatic change. Ricardo Aguilar, director of investigation and projects in Europe of the Organization the International for the Investigation, Protection and Recovery of the Oceans, even assured that the islands that are more unprotected, because raise very little height with respect to the level of the sea, have the possibility of undergoing the attack of the waves and storms and of causing very serious damages, the risk of which great parts of the islands are flooded during enough time. And it explained that there are many islands in the Caribbean, East Indian Pacific and that could be seen in this situation. The predictions are not very good. Aguilar assured that these storms will return to repeat themselves in the zone with the same or greater intensity. Haiti is the poorest country of America. The island of the Turtle has 26,000 inhabitants and has a surface of 179 kilometers square. All Haiti has something more than eight million inhabitants and its rent per capita is of 480 dollars to the year. Its rate of unemployment surpasses the 70 percent."
Elsewhere in Haiti, rioting is reported as food is now in short supply and authorities are having difficulty maintain order: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040924/D85A9ERO0.html UN forces firing smoke grenades in efforts to keep people in line.
Here Comes Jeanne
We are once again thankful that we left Boca Raton in January. Looks like from about there north along the Florida coast is being hammered this weekend: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W+GIF/251138W.gif
As Goes California
We have always looked at the West Coast as a financial canary for the rest of the country. Now, with CNN reporting that the city of San Diego is close to bankruptcy, we wonder about a lot of other cities too: http://edition.cnn.com/2004/US/09/24/sandiego.finances.ap/ The logical extension of this concern is that a lot of municipal bond ratings might be called into question if this "municipal Enron" is real.
Apparently, our sharp-eyed reader in Erie, PA has found a similar story. You can go through the account signup and logon process to get to the story "City to run out of Money" at http://goerie.com/ but the gist of it is in a Kevin Flowers bylined piece:
"The city of Erie likely won't be able to cut paychecks for its workers in December without raiding its water reserve account of up to $2 million.
That's the opinion of city Finance Director Gary Peterson, who told City Council Tuesday that the city's overall payroll budget for 2004 — about $36 million — is headed for a $1.5 million to $2 million shortfall by Dec. 1."
Another Fallujah Raid
Eight people have been killed in the latest U.S. led fighting in Fallujah: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3688812.stm The objective apparently was to find supporters of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, mastermind behind the insurgency. But little indication yet whether the attacks were successful.
In the Arab press, there's a lot of attention on the meetings between the Iraqi Prime Minister and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld this week. The core question is when - and under what sort of conditions, might US soliders be pulled out of Iraq: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/98C7FBCC-B252-4C9B-BD66-9C991DF202F1.htm
Coup Aborted
In the Sudan, where there's been much concern over a rising Islamist tide lately, we hear today of a coup plot being uncovered and dealt with: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3688672.stm
Friday
Is Whole Island Missing?
There's a report in Russian media that the island of Tortuga (off Haiti) was scrubbed of people by recent hurricanes, with the Russian translation of the story at link going like this (right off the translation engine we use)::
"Storm could wash off the island Of tortuga of the authority of the state of Haiti, which most suffered from the tropical storm of &.tsuot;Zhanna&.tsuot;, they fear, that the gigantic waves in the literal sense washed off Tortuga island, located to the north from the basic island. The day before the helicopters of the mission OF UNITED NATIONS accomplished the circling of that region, where is located Tortuga island by the area of 180 square kilometers, but they saw only the turbulent sea. The population Of tortugi composes 26 thousand people. Today the helicopters OF UNITED NATIONS will complete the repeated circling of region.
A whole island of 26-thousand people missing? There are plenty of other stories about how bad it is in Haiti right now, such as this one - Link . We should hear more today about this, but it keeps our attention riveted to unusual weather developments.
If you've been following this site for more than a few months, you know that the web bots were raging on about water, forced migration of people, and problems of water in the May run. We thought earlier - like back around the beginning of August - that such a forecast of future events might be relating to flooding and monsoons which devastated India and Bangladesh. If that had been the extent of the forecast, it would have been technical a "hit" but it lacked the "Oh my God" factor - which summarizes what the web bots seem to pick up - the shift of emotive values in the future reflected in present day linguistic shifts on the internet.
Now that we have been thoroughly ravaged by hurricanes in the south, and in Florida in particular, we're beginning to wonder if the major shift of consciousness that the web bots tell us should be coming into people's consciousness now, or very shortly in the future, but by the first of November anyway, might be a global realization that the weather "just ain't right" anymore. For example:
-
Tomorrow and through the weekend, the Bahamas and it looks now like East Central and Northeast Florida will be struck by another hurricane - Jeanne - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm11+shtml/240903.shtml? Officials are deciding today whether to evacuate 150,000 people from Brevard County: http://www.wesh.com/news/3756801/detail.html
-
Hurricane Karl seems destined to blow itself out over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, but as its remnants head north, we wonder if that might not bring heavy rain to the British Isles in a week or so: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm12+shtml/240903.shtml?
-
Tropical depression Lisa doesn't seem to be threatening land today, but hurricanes being somewhat unpredictable beyond the 5-day window, who knows which way it will head next? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm13+shtml/240903.shtml?
-
Even our little ranch here in Texas has not completely escaped the leftovers of Hurricane Ivan. We expect some showers and gusty winds tomorrow as Ivan blows through, although it will be closer to the Bush ranch down the road 140 miles from us: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/240853.shtml?
We think there's a possibility that after decades of moving indoors and expecting that technology will keep us from nature's fury, that we may have to change that attitude. Ma Nature is back.
Teresa Expects Osama
Oh? Teresa Heinz-Kerry told a group in Phoenix that she would not be surprised if Osama is trotted out in the next month or so - prior to the election: http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2004/09/20/daily58.html
This will be an interesting test: The web bot runs recently hint that Osama and eight lieutenants will be able to escape from a U.S. sweep by hiding in a culvert/ditch for 3-days without food or water - and that they will be disguised as women. We'll be watching to see how this rolls out. I'll bet on the bots, not Heinz-Kerry, thanks.
New / Latest Oil War
This time the fighting is in the oil rich delta region of Nigeria and Shell is pulling its staff out of the region till things calm down: Link
Billions and Billions
Forbes (the capitalist tool) has come out with its latest listing of billionaires in the U.S. Story If you're one of the 313 in the US, up from 262 last year, you might drop us a note on how you did it.
Thursday's Confessionals
As we explained yesterday, we love Thursdays because its when we see what is happening with two of the most important trends we follow: Real estate (bubble) and the exit of small public traders from the NYSE.
On the loan front from www.mbaa.org:
WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 22, 2004)—The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 17. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications - a measure of mortgage loan applications - was 690.7, an increase of 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 678.2 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 26.4 percent compared with last week but was down 1.5 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 0.2 percent to 456.6 from 455.7 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index increased by 4.1 percent to 2052.5 from 1972.5 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Purchase Index has increased 13.6 percent while the Refinance Index has decreased 15.5 percent when compared with levels one year ago.
Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which increased 2.1 percent to 1028.3 from 1007.2 the previous week. The Government Index decreased 1.2 percent to 127.4 from 129.0 the previous week.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 44.5 percent of total applications from 43.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 33.1 percent of total applications from 33.0 percent the previous week.
And from the NYSE, program trading last was back up to 59.8% the week ending September 17 after being down to 54.8% the week ending September 10th.
Kidnapping Increases
Two Egyptian men have been grabbed in the latest kidnapping in troubled Iraq: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3686244.stm
As we told you to expect, the U.S. appointed Prime Minister of Iraq was busy telling Congress yesterday how his country is establishing democracy and freedom: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3682062.stm While Allawi says that the majority of 18 provinces could hold elections tomorrow, what he didn't mention was those weren't in highly populated areas - which is where the urban guerilla war is being waged.
Radio Note
We notice that Matt Savinar of www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net will be the guest Sunday night on James Arthur Jancik's radio program "Feet to the Fire" http://www.feet2fire.com/ 8 Eastern Sunday night.
Problems for Emperor Vlad
Following the Russian school tragedy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has seized on the tragedy to attempt reforms which would tighten his reins on political power. Yet remarkably, he is being opposed by ex-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/24/gorbachint.shtml Meantime, about half of Russians are not buying the "fight terror, let me reform government my way" kind of logic that Emperor Vlad is peddling: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/23/poll.shtml
Contributed Paper
Here's a contributed paper from a reader which is well worth reading
The Disastrous History of Money : Part 5 - Credit
Like cocaine, consumer credit comes in lines and is dangerously habit forming. It has been around a long time:-
"Prosperity was assisted, too, by ... stimulants to purchasing, each of which mortgaged the future but kept the factories roaring while it was being injected ... People were getting to consider it old-fashioned to limit their purchases to the amount of their cash balance; the thing to do was to 'exercise their credit' ... 15% of all retail sales were on an installment basis ...It was fun while it lasted." - Only Yesterday, an informal history of the 1920's, F.L.Allen (published 1931).
These 'stimulants' of the 1920s were benign by comparison to our own.
Credit is now elevated to the status of a fundamental human right. It lifts up consumers with personal loans from the bank, credit cards through the mail, store-cards at the till, and on the back of any imagined increase in the value of overpriced homes. So important is credit to modernity that some western governments even create new banks to grant ever more of it to those unfortunates excluded by the prejudice of a wicked banking sector which reckons, not unreasonably, that it is daft to lend money to people who have no real prospect of paying anything back.
But although current consumer indebtedness is bigger than it has ever previously been it is still only the tip of the iceberg. Corporate consumption of credit is far worse.
The numbers from the publications of the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements show the world bond market, i.e. debt which has been issued in the form of traded bonds, grew from $800bn in 1970 to over $35,000bn in 2001. This is 43 times. It is still growing rapidly, but even this colossus is of no consequence; because next to it is the world of derivatives.
Our cleverest brains have for twenty years been constructing arrangements which allow giant corporations to get things which they cannot pay for. The BIS estimated the main financial derivatives markets at $1,100bn in 1986. Recently it went through $150,000bn and a further $98,800bn in Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives have to be added as well. So in 16 years or so the notional sum of derivatives outstanding grew by about 250 times, and still it marches on.
Not surprisingly in the minds of the investment bankers who earn fees from these derivatives every cent of the credit exposure is perfectly secure. But J.K.Galbraith - who wrote the definitive account of the events surrounding the Great Depression of the 1930s - had this to say:-
"One of the paradoxes of speculation in securities is that the loans that underwrite it are among the safest of all investments. They are protected by stocks which under all ordinary circumstances are instantly saleable, and by a cash margin as well....A few firms made this decision: instead of trying to produce goods with its manifold headaches and inconveniences, they confined themselves to financing speculation...This was, possibly, the most profitable arbitrage operation of all time." The Great Crash - published in 1954
Meanwhile his contemporary R.L.Smitley, who could never happily resist the chance to rubbish a conventional wisdom, offered this :-
"The complexity of this era of credit liquidation is far too great for the mob mind to grasp. It is hardly possible for them to see the picture wherein about 700 billion dollars of physical and intangible wealth is attempting to be turned into about 5 billion dollars of money" Popular Financial Delusions - published in 1933
Seven hundred billion dollars? Try seven thousand billion dollars - the amount issued by just one of our modern credit addicts. Click here to review its progress in paying it back.
Articles in the Disastrous History of Money series include :-
Inside Report
This weekend we explore the economics of guns and gun control. If you're not a subscriber, click over to http://urbansurvival.com/subscribe.htm We think it's one of the best uses for $30 available.
Thursday
11:15 AM CDT Update
Oil Reserves Dropping!
The Energy Information administration, according to the Washington Post at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41791-2004Sep22.html reports that U.S. oil reserves have actually dropped in the past year. Not good news at all, and certainly it lends support oil which is stubbornly stuck over $48 so far today. Along with that, the Dow is now down about 50 points.
Fanny Tanking
We have not "piled on" with the rest of the financial press because the situation at Fannie Mae is somewhat troubling, but we wrong about it well in advance, so if you're still in the stock, you have only yourself to thank. The common is down over 10% in two days of trading since rumors of their financial problems started making the rounds. What's more important is we note that a lot of brokerage firms are downgrading their rankings of the stock. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fnm Again, we have to ask where the genius level analysts were before the drubbing that got underway this week?
Earlier Thursday...
The Dow - Four Years Back
We've noticed that with the election coming up, a Wall Street Journal poll out today finds that 51% of people they polled disapprove of the way George 2 has handled the economy. www.wsj.com
Not without reason, as it turns out. We went back and looked up where the Dow was when voters went to the polls in November of 2000. Surprise: The Dow closed election day at 10,952.18. Data Link While we can't get excited about either of the candidates running for the White House, as such thoughts lead to elevated blood pressure, we can nevertheless report that if the elections were held today a Dow portfolio would be down 7.7% compared with the same holding in November 2000.
To make matters worse, a portfolio that had been made up of the NASDAQ 100 (IXIC) would have declined from Election day 2000's 3,415.79 to 1,885.19 at yesterday's close. That's a whopping 44.8% decline. Data Link
Then there is the performance of the S&P 500 for the same period. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,113.56 versus a close of 1,431.87 on November 7, 2000. It's a 22.2% decline for the S&P.
But wait. It gets even worse for GW. We have also have to account for inflation during the intervening four years between then and now. Assuming 3% per year, compounded, that's a 9.27% decline in purchasing power of the portfolio.
So we can either add 9.27% purchasing power to the 2000 market figures, or subtract 9.27% for four years worth of inflation and apply it today today's number to put everything basis 2000 purchasing power.
Yes, we could quibble about the annual inflation rate, but calling it 3% per year seems if anything quite charitable. If you want to do a different calculation, you're welcome to. Our point is this is not the kind of economic record anyone would willingly stand on:
| Four Year Performance | ||||
| Dow | NAS100 | S&P 500 | ||
| 2000 | 10,952.18 | 3415.79 | 1431.87 | |
| 2004 | 10109.18 | 1885.71 | 1113.56 | |
| Change | -843.00 | -1,530.08 | -318.31 | |
| % Change | -7.7% | -44.8% | -22.2% | |
| Corrected | ||||
| Dow | NAS100 | S&P 500 | ||
| 2000 | 11,967.45 | 3,732.43 | 1,564.60 | |
| 2004 | 10109.18 | 1885.71 | 1113.56 | |
| Change | -1,858.27 | -1,846.72 | -451.04 | |
| % Change | -15.5% | -49.5% | -28.8% | |
If you were running for office, a 15.5% decline in the Dow, a 28.8% decline in the S&P 500, and a 49.5% decline in the NASDAQ 100 on a purchasing power/ constant dollar basis is not a very good thing to be selling. I suppose that's why there is some much hype about war records. Being a little more practical, we're inclined to look at the numbers instead of the hyperbole.
Ex-CIA Boss Sees Fingerprinting Everyone
We'll be darned if we can figure out why the Patience Wait story in Government Computer News is not the lead item on corporate media outlets, but then again, maybe we just answered that question. Nevertheless, ex-CIA Director James Woolsey is is hinting that all U.S. citizens may end up being fingerprinted as the War on Terror is expanded. http://www.gcn.com/vol1_no1/daily-updates/27362-1.html Of course Woolsey's comments at the Biometric Consortium Conference down the road from CIA HQ is not getting much notice. Key quote:
"During the question-and-answer session, Woolsey was asked if citizens will have to be fingerprinted to help screen for potential enemies.
“I would imagine something like that is coming,” he said. "
Not only will genuine terrorists not get fingerprinted (nor would they worry about it) but it will help make the burgeoning business over at the Department of Pre-crime even bigger. Nothing about registering citizens in the Constitution, but that doesn't seem to matter. Oh what a fine stew it will be! I can see it now: Getting fingerprinted on a traffic stop will come next. Oh, and when young people register for the draft next year - that'd be a fine place to collect prints, too.
Fiscally Irresponsible
The Republicans are now pushing for their tax cuts to be extended. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040923/D85941KG0.html. If you're confused, you have good reason to be. On the one hand, Bummer Al over at the Fed says government has to tone down what it has promised in the way of Social Security benefits due to issues coming up with the money. On the other hand, our electioneering Tweedlecans are pushing the Big Lie about free lunches again. We'll file this right next to sightings of "Bunny, Easter" and "Santa" You know, between the BS, so to speak.
Putin and Petrodollars
We have been engaged in an argument for a number of weeks - since the Belsan school tragedy - about whether Vlad Putin is in the petrodollar faction or the narcodollar faction. Based on the report today out of Russia that he is attacking international forces in Afghanistan as having no impact on the drug flows from the region, we're inclined to put him in the petrodollar camp: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/23/putin.shtml.
Russian Space Shuttle Found
here's a weird story for you: Turns out Russia sent its own version of the space shuttle up in 1988 - and now its wereckage has reportedly been found in the Persian Gulf: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/23/shuttle.shtml
Oil Pushing 50
Even though I'm now older than most speed limits, pushing 50 is still a bad thing, least wise as it relates to oil prices. It's was over $48 yesterday http://news.ft.com/cms/s/bef1e9fc-0c81-11d9-b543-00000e2511c8.html and with the remnants of Hurricane Ivan reorganizing for another run at New Orleans and Texas, and rigs reducing operations according to our Houston Bureau, we might see oil touch 50 which I would think would drop the Dow back under 10,000.
Kerry: Bush will Draft
As I've mentioned to you several times, the new Draft bill (HR163/SB89) is parked in committee just itching for approval as soon as Congress returns from electioneering. We therefore note with interest that John Kerry says George Bush will bring back the draft - which congress has been working on since a number of democrats sponsored its return in January of 2003 when the bill was introduced.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040922/ap_on_el_pr/kerry_10 What Kerry's remarks don't make clear is whether it would veto the draft. We note that both Tweedlecans and Tweedlecrats supported the bill, so putting it all on Republicans isn't exactly overwhelming candor in our book.
The Media Campaign Trail
We have an interesting report from John David Stone, intrepid editor at our Northwest Bureau on how the electronic battle for hearts and minds is doing:
"(Baring, Washington) - We had occasion to call Honeywell customer service today. Honeywell is a heritage American company that makes furnace thermostats and related heating/cooling products. Our need was an operating manual for a thermostat. Was served by a nice customer service rep on phone named "Roger". Roger was sitting in New Deli India, talking with me on the phone where customer service for the company is now located. This, on the heels of talking with a customer service rep recently from American Express -- who was located in Bangalore, India.
Fast forward to TV watching. I saw Ralph Nader on TV last night. He said he is the only candidate that has an effective program to deal with the export of American jobs (the "sucking sound" we now hear that Ross Perot predicted years ago during the debate over NAFTA. Perot claimed hundreds of thousands of American jobs (starting with low wage jobs and moving up the ladder) would leave America, never to return. Most people thought he was nuts).
Nader says he agrees that American Corporations should get leaner, more efficient, etc. To that end, he says when he is elected President he will take out ads in newspaper all across India, Pakistan, China, Central America, etc., seeking well educated, English speaking CEO's of foreign companies willing to take the jobs of American CEO's at 1/10th of what their American counterparts make and a much less costly benefits program to boot. :)
After all, says Nader, if outsourcing efficiency is good for the bottom and the middle of the labor pool, it makes sense it would be dynamite for the top where all these wonderful, money saving efficiency ideas originate.
Imagine the efficiency a CEO from China (who's used to making $12,000 a year) would bring to our bloated, wasteful, inefficient America corporations.
---
Flashback: 3 years ago your author here was on the set of a TV commercial shoot. On the set was a 33-year old "intern" for the production company. This guy's salary was being picked up by a state program. He was on a state funded program for "displaced workers". You know. The kind of stuff they did for loggers when the timber industry dried up. The intern was a former Microsoft employed, highly experienced computer programmer. Had worked for Microsoft over a decade, first as a contract player then as an employee. We're talkin' a guy in the $65K to $85K salary range not including bonuses or options.
His entire division at the Big M was shut down, all jobs shipped overseas. Boo-koo other companies did the same thing around the same time. Thus Johnny Intern and tens of thousands of others like him were unable to find jobs even at half of what they were making. Now Washington state (i.e. us dumb taxpayers) are PICKING UP THE TAB TO PAY FOR the re-training of a whole new class of "displaced workers" -- educated, highly trained, experienced, pretty sharp folks who can't get arrested despite their education, training and experience. You know. The people who not too many years ago were told by high school and college career counselors to "get into computers in some way" because that is where the high paying jobs of the future would be.
Ya gotta love all the logic at work here.
The NW Bureau email address is zippodeluxe@verizon.net -
Crossed Out
A 7 foot crucifix fell on a woman's head in southern Italy, killing here. http://www.local6.com/news/3752047/detail.html. Hell of a way to go.
On Tube Tonight
When you get home from work tonight, here are some of the "might as well be canned" stories that you'll see:
-
The U.S. appointed PM of Iraq will address Congress today: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3682062.stm Expect the expect hazzahs and thank you's realizing that he was appointed by whom?
-
The brother of hostage Ken Bigley says the U.S. sabotaged his possible release: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3682246.stm
-
Former head of the FDA says nicotine levels in cigarettes were manipulated to keep people hooked: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB76VXUGZD.html
Confession Day
We always love Thursdays here at the ranch. Not only is it the day the trash from the week's construction projects get taken away, but it's when we hear the confessions in the economic sector that we listen most closely to: For example the mortgage bankers report their weekly refi figures and the NYSE puts up the latest stats on program trading (which is continuing a trend of replacing human trades.) So in the future, Wednesday is Hump Day, but Thursday is Confession day.
Free Computer Help
A number of people have asked me how to set up the resolution of their computer so they can see this page as intended in 1024 by 768 resolution. I wrote up a longish page on setting monitors with MS Windows and you can read it over at http://urbansurvival.com/cpuset.htm. Also included: My favorite zooming trick... at the bottom of the aforementioned page. Note the disclaimer, though. No whining allowed.
Son of Search Engine Course
Sales of our short course on how to use search engines are going briskly. If you'd like to order, click over to http://www.urbansurvival.com/searchbooklet.htm for ordering information.
Now I need some advice from you on which of two projects to pursue next. Here's are the two choices - please vote and let me know if you are interested.
-
Similar to the Search Engine booklet, we've been asked to put together a booklet that explains in very simple terms how to build an internet web site. It would be the same kind of format - about 40 pages. Click to get on the waiting list for the web site construction booklet - due in about two weeks. ($10)
-
We have been having an absolute ball with our new mobile surveillance robot. I've been working on putting together a 20 minute video (Windows Media and RealPlayer formats on CD) to show you how to take readily available parts, including a radio remote controlled car, and put a wireless camera and microphone on it. I use it to wander around the ranch at night via remote control and to watch the deer. It's almost like a video game - but real - because you drive the robot by watching a TV set and running the remote control. It's a great father-son Christmas project, too. Click here for the Surveillance robot CD/Video and plans ($20)
Once I finish the web site construction booklet, I will offer a CD of both booklets for $20 including mailing. Click here if you want to be on that list.
2:00 PM CDT Update
Toutais Near-Miss Update
Best guesses are that the object known as Toutais will miss earth by 963,000 miles when it passes earth on the 29th of this month. But here's an odd coincidence: Fort Bragg is doing a preparedness exercise called "Orbit Comet" this week: http://rdu.news14.com/content/headlines/?ArID=55423&SecID=2 Either these military planners have a fine sense of wry (or is that rye?) or...
GAO on DHS
Testimony Before the Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and
International Relations, Committee on Government Reform, House of
Representatives
Statement of Norman J. Rabkin, Managing Director, Homeland Security and Justice Issues. I've highlighted the key point in the Summary section.
Extract: In my testimony today, I will cover three topics.
• To what extent are elements of the Homeland Security and Combating
Terrorism strategies aligned with recommendations issued by the 9/11
Commission?
• What key departments have responsibilities for implementing the
Homeland Security strategy, and what actions have they taken to
implement the strategy?
• What challenges are faced by key departments in assessing their progress
towards achieving homeland security objectives?
Summary
HomelandThe 9/11 Commission issued 8 recommendations that were not addressed
in the specific initiatives for the critical mission areas of the
Security
strategy or the goals and objectives of the Combating Terrorismstrategy. These recommendations pertain to enhancing analytical
capabilities of the Central Intelligence Agency, reorganizing the
intelligence community, improving accountability of intelligence
operations, leadership of the Department of Defense in paramilitary
operations, continuity of national security policymaking, and modifying
congressional oversight. As the national strategies are expected to evolve
over time, they could reflect some of these recommendations. The
remaining 33 Commission recommendations are aligned with the specific
initiatives of the
Homeland Security strategy or the objectives of theCombating Terrorism
strategy. For example, in the area of DefendingAgainst Catastrophic Threats, the Commission recommended that the
United States prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by
expanding and supporting existing counterproliferation initiatives.
Similarly, the
Homeland Security strategy includes an initiative to preventterrorist use of nuclear weapons. The 9/11 Commission also recommended
that the United States engage with other nations in developing a strategy
against terrorism and an approach toward detention and humane
treatment of captured terrorists. Likewise, the Combating Terrorism
strategy includes an objective to establish and maintain an international
standard and accountability with regard to combating terrorism.
Our preliminary analysis identifies six departments—the Departments of
Defense, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Justice,
and State—as having key roles in implementing the Homeland Security
strategy. These six departments represent 94 percent of the proposed $47
billion budget for homeland security in fiscal year 2005. In addition, our
preliminary analysis shows that these six departments have lead agency
roles in implementing the Homeland Security strategy. For example, DHS
was designated as the lead agency for 37 of the 43 initiatives in that
strategy. According to information received from agency officials, at least
one of these six departments has demonstrated planning and/or
implementation activities in each of the 43 initiatives. While our
preliminary analysis indicates that planning or implementation activities
were occurring, it was not within the scope of the analysis to assess the
status or quality of the various departments’ activities on each initiative. In
a forthcoming report for this committee, we will provide more detailed
information on these departments’ efforts, including an analysis of lead
agencies’ current implementation activities.
As key departments continue to implement the Homeland Security
strategy, the development of performance goals and measures will help
them assess their progress in implementing homeland security efforts.
Once they are established, performance measures, such as costeffectiveness
and net benefits, can be used to link costs to outcomes.
Development of standards, particularly systems and service standards, will
also provide an important means to measure preparedness and guide
resource investments.
Full text in .PDF at the Government Accountability Office site: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d041075t.pdf (Yeah, they used to be the government Accounting office but it's Accountability these days...) Interesting to read the GAO play-by-play of 9-11 report follow-up.
Half Past Hacked: Web Bots Watching Iraq, Africa
Censorship is a dangerous thing. We note with interest that our web bot colleague's site at www.halfpasthuman.com was hacked today. The subscribers list was destroyed - and interesting development because even webmasters don't have access to the high level domain where access files live. His ISP is Earthlink for the HPH site.
The hack attack has us looking at the latest web bot run to figure out what's in it that the PTB would just as soon people don't know about. Here are some tidbits:
-
In the "Iraq Entity"
"The Iraq entity has a curious supporting base of [humility] as an aspect descriptor. This word is one of a small set of emotively high-value and long-impact, but low-intensity/low immediacy words. In this case, the attributes and cross linked aspects suggest that [humility] is being used not as a descriptor for the entity but rather for a movement/person within the entity. Further, this begins a series of linked aspects hanging off the [humility] lexical arm which are all focused on the month of October. These are all short term impacting lexical shifts which taken together suggest the time frame.
Within this lexical structure we find that it is
(advantageous/successful) to (attack) [with force/in numbers] even
though [great damage] (be done/will occur/shall happen/is
predictable) for (one's own/ownership/possession)
[cities/houses/country/realm]. Apparently even though the
[mud/brick] of (one's) [house] be (crushed) by [the feet of
neighbors/army], it will be/is being perceived as a positive thing
locally within the Iraq entity."
-
A new entity: Africa: Decay Low on the Mountain has emerged. But we have no idea what:
"Specifically, we find that most of the geographic
references are for [south] and [coast/coastal/estuarine]. The entity
arises as a result of change. Within this change we find that
[one/man/person/personality/motivator] (rouses/encourages/raises)
the [people/populace/masses] to [set right/repair/correct] the
[injustices/sins] of the past. That the [populace/masses] will
(march/walk/proceed) toward the [low hills] just [before/outside] the
[area/control] of the [mountain]. There they will
(meet/encounter/discover) the [winds/airs/fumes/respiration] of
(decay)."
Like most web bot reports, things get clear in the future, and our "watch typically begins up to 120-days before an event as it has consistently since the first reports in July 2001 presaged the events of 9/11. That said, we've definitely tuned up in our news scans, particularly southern coastal countries. Subscriber info at http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPHSUBSCRIPTION_INFO.htm
Two Sites to Visit
On days like this when the stock market is down 140 points (barring the last hour hype move by the PPT) we are reminded that it's a globalists world - which is fine, provided that you are getting a fair shake. That means a chance for a good education, a good job, and as one site puts it, you're not unwillingly pitted in a race to the bottom by the world's cheapest humans overseas.
That said, and after ready that Citigroup has been dealt another blow in Japan Link and that oil is spurting ahead after Wrong Way Al's move Tuesday Link one might actually get the idea that big business is in big trouble.
If you are not sure if there's trouble ahead, you might want to visit the AFL-CIO affiliated web site www.workingamerica.org. Some of their stats to ponder:
-
85,444 people lose their jobs every day in America and since 2001 the national has lost nearly 3 million jobs. http://www.aflcio.org/yourjobeconomy/todayseconomy/jobgrowth.cfm
-
9.8% of young workers are unemployed.
-
We have 6.8 million people in the workforce who are paid so little they are still poor.
-
And in the last 3-years, 2.9 million good manufacturing jobs have gone overseas or plain disappeared.
My passing this on to you has nothing to do with presidential politics - I'm still trying to figure out how I can vote for Bush-Edwards, which won't be a choice on the ballot here in Texas. I
My concern has to do with helping you stay up on events that drive politics. One event to mark on the calendar is the Million Worker March on Washington coming up October 17th. Details at www.millionworkermarch.org. It's a good idea, but whether anyone will hear about it via corporate-owned media before the fact ought to be an object lesson in how business rules the major network newsrooms.
10:30 AM CDT Update
Rocky Mountain Institute Report
I don't know how this one slipped past, but quick, go print out the executive summary of the Rocky Mountain institute report "Winning the Oil Endgame" at http://www.oilendgame.org/pdfs/WtOEg_ExecSummary.pdf. The whole report can also be downloaded. Co-funded by the Pentagon, this one makes a lot of sense. With the Dow down more than 100 (having apparently concluded as we have that Wrong Way Al made a bad call yesterday) this is an important area to watch going forward. As goes oil, so goes conventional growth. Read the report and see if you're working for a winner or loser.
There are many skeptics among those who have studied Peak Oil in depth, but this report deserves a read even if it is too optimistic.
Antarctic - Glaciers Melting 8X Faster
The Antarctic glaciers are melting faster and faster. Story The story doesn't give you the source page for how much water levels will rise around the world as various glaciers break off land and slide into the world's oceans, although Inside Report subscribers have that information. If you haven't subscribed yet, I won't send you to the subscription information page, but I will ask you thank subscribers who keep this site going - then go look at the source information. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs133-99/gl_vol.html. Now, go thank a subscriber. 80.44 meters times 3.2808399 to convert meters to feet gives us 253.91 feet. That wouldn't even leave Florida as shallows - the whole southern part of the state would be under 200 feet of water. So why people would buy homes there is beyond me. Such are housing bubbles, huh? And that's before mention of...
Update 1:45 P CDT: NASA news release at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2004-233
Hurricanes, J-K-L
Jeanne: Best guess would be landfall at North Carolina (maybe South) about next Tuesday or so. Watch Page
Karl: Looks like it will just disrupt North Atlantic shipping. Watch Page
Lisa: Who knows? Watch Page
Dr. Germ Stays Boxed
There had been some reports overnight that Iraqi authorities would release two women held prisoner for their part in Saddam Hussein's regime, including Rihab Rashid Taha, a/k/a/ Dr. Germ, who was one of the leading bio-weapons researchers: Story Militants (Zarqawi, et al) are threatening to kill hostages unless all Islamic women are released. The U.S. position: We don't negotiate with terrorists.
Get Back Cat
If you're old enough, you might remember songs by Cat Stevens like Peace Train and Tea for the Tillerman album cuts. Morning has Broken was another one of his megahits. But now, turns out that since Cat Stevens has gone Muslim, he can't come to the U.S. He was yanked (pun intended) off a plane in Maine and send back to London: Story We expect there's more to just putting Cat Stevens, now Yusuf Islam, on a watch list because of his music. This means Stevens now has something in common with Ted Kennedy - both on watch the list.
Bomb of the Day
Iraq. 15 dead, 50+ wounded. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A313826A-1E48-4757-BA15-C58CDAF2D3AC.htm Remember where you heard it first: ROTC call-up right after Bush's re-election and a Draft Law before Christmas.
Bloatware - UN Style
You know what bloatware is, right? Software which starts off as a good idea and then becomes so vig and feature-rich that its size swells to fantastic size. OK, now take that concept over to the UN where Brazil, Germany, Japan and India are all pushing for seats on the UN Security Council. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3678736.stm. They also want an African nation on the Security Council. If you wondered about the wisdom of the security council before, this ought to ratchet up your concerns a notch.
Problem: Two for One Voting
Earlier this week I mentioned how one of the options I was considering when it comes time to vote is writing in none of the above. In the Story I related the famous Eisenhower speech warning of the dangers of the military-industrial complex. I liked Ike.
Since Monday I've been on a quest to find some way to exercise my franchise in the most responsible manner. I've concluded that I have to vote because its the American thing to do. However, I'm now deeply troubled that I don't really have a choice because Texas is a straight party state. In other words, I can't vote for Bush (the lesser of two evils) and for John Edwards (I'm not at all happy with Dick Cheney).
But this is where things run onto the rocks. At least in Texas, I'm told that I can't vote a split Presidential - Bush-Edwards. I'll let you know if I can write it in as we're planning to use the early vote system here.
I think writing in Bush - Edwards is about as good as it's going to be this time around, but more important, it sends a message that Americans are still free and capable of thinking for themselves.
I've called the Texas Secretary of State's Office and although I was promised a call, the phone sits silently, so I will call them again today and let you know if I can write in my preferred choices from the very limited and very similar choices "officially available."
There is some good news about presidential debates in the Christian Science Monitor today at http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0922/p01s02-uspo.html.
Gold Down
Reason: Oil. Latest: Yukos dodges bankruptcy - again: http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/09/17/misamore.shtml It may also be that the market sees the Fed raise - as I tried to explain yesterday - will keep down future inflation - a bad thing for gold. http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6296905 But you know what all this means, right? Higher odds on a big recession in 2005. But oh well, that's the price of living on borrowed money.
Another Gold Manipulation Suit
New gold lawsuit: Go read the latest filing at www.savegold.com It's Dr. Gregg McKenzie and A.J. Miller versus Barrick Gold Corp and J.P. Morgan Chase. The civil suit alleges that the...
"Defendants have manipulated the price of gold, attempted to monopolize the spot gold market, and have restrained trade in that market, primarily through the use of gold derivatives, physical sales of gold on the spot gold market, and public misrepresentations."
OK, we'll be watching this one closely...
Bidding Russian Resources
French firm Total is trying to buy privately held Russian gas producer Novatek for $1 billion.
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/09/22/totalnovatek.shtml
Glad for Vlad
If you ever wondered whether globalist banksters were cheering for Vlad Putin's behavior in office, read no further than: http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/09/21/wolfensohn.shtml All this while the average person in Russia is losing confidence in Vlad: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/22/pollrating.shtml
Trouble in Twinkie Land
Interstate Bakeries files for bankruptcy yesterday struggling with about $1.3 billion in debt. Story
I know you might pass on reading this, but you have not been around America's high tech companies if you don't see the immediate threat this poses to the lifeblood of programmers. Whether it's SQL or C++, it seems bottles of Coca Cola and cartons of Twinkies (coupled with an occasional pizza delivery) are what keeps America building the finest source code in the world. I will predict an immediate end to computer civilization is our Twinkie supply is threatened!
Programmers never eat Twinkies in from of HR people, by the way. It helps keep up the illusion that they are not wired on caffeine and sugar to the point of collapse after a 48-hour debugging session to hit a release date..
Wednesday
Is al Qaida Up to Something?
There's an excellent piece in today's Washington Times by Bill Gertz at http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040921-121158-2444r.htm that openly wonders whether al Qaida is planning a "spectacular" pre-election attack on the U.S. or its allies. This has us back on the yellow pad this morning diagramming motivations:
As you can see, a little logical mapping of the meaning of the story opens up some odd thoughts. One topic worth a second cup of coffee to study is whether an al Qaida attack would cause any change in probable outcomes in the U.S. November elections. Here, we have two possibilities:
I've kicked this around with a few colleagues whether an al Qaida attack on the U.S. would work in the interests of the terrorists. The reason is that we have two possible outcomes politically from any attack. One would be a "rally round the President" reactions. We recall that in Zogby polling after 9/11, the Bush approval ratings soared from something like 46% up to 80%. On the other hand, the terrorists may be looking at the "Spanish Model" where a series of train attacks around the country seemed to push the election in the direction of politicians who favored leaving Iraq.
From a military perspective, one could argue that in addition to settling up a family score for the Bush family, and holding out the possibility of obtaining oil control, the second Iraq War may have served the important purpose of keeping terrorists busy outside the U.S. The problem with this notion, however, is that direct involvement of al Qaida either in a participatory or consultative role in the conflict has not been proven. "Ah," claim believers in this view, "We have had no terrorist attacks in the U.S. so it must be the case."
This kind of logic reminds me of the story of the fellow who walked into the bar waving a long stick with a green flag on it. Ordering a martini, the fellow would frantically wave the stick every few minutes. "Why on earth are you doing that?" asked the bartender. "It keeps the elephants away," came the reply. "But there are no elephants within a thousand miles of here," advised the bartender. "See? It's working!" said the martini drinking flag waver.
Along the same line, we wonder if fighting in Iraq has kept the terrorists away from our own shores, or if it's not just another sales point - as "WMD's" and "biological weapons" were - until they were shown to be false.
Time will tell, but God willing, without the "spectacular attacks" discussed in Gertz' piece today.
Pressure Day at the Fed
As long as I've got the yellow pad out, here's the problem facing the Fed today as they ponder a rate hike. As you can see, by looking at the timeline, the only policy decision that maintains the Big Lie about the recovery is to raise the rate today, despite the fact that it will cause a recession next year. The key is that's not an election year. You can keep this diagram handy to interpret the decision when it comes out.
Let me be a little more specific about "pressure on gold" if the Fed raises rates. Short term, that might signal that inflation fears are back - which would push gold up, but the longer term is that the Fed move would effectively fight inflation (if not force downright deflation) so long term, it might be a negative for gold. That said, gold is still a great hold because its purchasing power, unlike that of the dollar, can't be printed away as so many Fed officials would like to do.
I expect the "panic by Wall St." will be slower with a rate pass, but lowering rates is completely out of the question, even if that's what the jobs and unemployment picture demands. Remember, there's more to this than jobs for you and me. It's about maintain a strong dollar - and to do that, raising is the only course of action.
Gang Wars of the Oil Patch
A top executive of Russian oil behemoth Yukos was gunned down in South Russia in what looks to us like the continuation of a war between the oil gangsters: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/21/directorkilled.shtml Keeping Yukos in disarray will kep keep oil prices up and fan the fears of the public. It's up to you to figure out who will benefit.
Putin Plan - Media Intimidation?
Meantime, Russian media are planning to target television studios in Russia - at least so claims one Russian paper: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/21/television.shtml But to our calloused way of looking at things, this is one of those stories that doesn't pass the sniff test. You see, Vladimir Putin is in the business of turning himself into the Emperor of Russia. While that's neither good nor bad (as we don't live there) the story would give Putin an excuse - and that's what this is about - an excuse to tighten Russian federal control of all media. Got to protect them, you know. You think the press would air anything even remotely critical of government blather with military and FSB people swarming around a TV studio?
Let me see: Someone set up CBS in the U.S. and now we see the encircling of television stations in Russia...you see a pattern here?
Death by Storm
The death toll from hurricane damage in Haiti is now over 600 and climbing: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/default.stm It wasn't the wind that got them, it was the flooding.
Syria Reorganized
Syrai has troops in Lebanon. The U.N. doesn't want them there. So in almost U.S. corporate administrator fashion, Syria is attempting a little "reorganization" to show movement - but likely without substance. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3675198.stm We'll call this one "playing for time."
Smart Bomb Sales
So now not only does Israel have 280 nuclear warheads, but they are buying a collection of 5000 "smart bombs" from the U.S. - an item that as you'd expect is making a splash in the Arab press: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8C117F99-C20E-4738-A15B-0BF683A1B21B.htm. The story is a yawner in the U.S. but mostly because we have never come under smart bomb attacks. Besides, the sale of $319 million let's us get some of our foreign aid to Israel back. Oh, the things we do for the balance of trade.
Tobacco Conspiracy
Another big tobacco case is underway, this time using the RICO statues and asking whether there was a criminal conspiracy behind pushing smokes on us when we were younger: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3674122.stm.
Email of the Day
From a reader here in the Republic of Texas:
From time to time I purchase travel gear from the outdoor firm of Patagonia. They just sent me a pamphlet they produced to encourage people to vote green. There are a couple of quotes in it I think you will like.
In 1863, in the depths of the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln lamented "I have the Confederacy before me, and the bankers behind me, and I fear the bankers most.''
Franklin Roosevelt echoed the same with the statement "the liberty of democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in it's essence is fascism."
Who's to argue with Presidents?
Search Booklet Available
One of the ways we keep the lights on at the server farm (which served 60,000 page views last week, by the by) is to sell things. A lot of people have asked us to provide a short (40 page) booklet explaining some of the basics of using search engines. The booklet is now available - delivered as an Adobe .PDF document for just $10. More details at: http://www.urbansurvival.com/searchbooklet.htm
Monday
Iraq Election Sideshow: Ike was Right
If you're tired of hearing nonsense and trivia about who did - or didn't do what in the service 30-years ago, it looks like the last couple of weeks of the campaign won't center of jobjacking (outsourcing) or the continuing decline of Americans' real income, but instead will get down to Iraq finger pointing. For instance:
-
W is warning about worsening violence as our elections (and theirs) near. Story
-
Tony Blair's folks have planted a rumor about pending British troop reductions. Story
-
The FBI is tooting its horn about their October anti-terror plans. Story
-
America's favorite Dick is attacking Kerry on 'Raq waffling. Story
-
And now, by an oil state paper, even Kerry back Don Imus is confused: Story
For our part, we'll simply remind you that last week, we diligently reported that Tweedlecans and Tweedlecrats alike are:
-
Planning to get the draft out of committee where it has been "parked" out of view. Story
-
And the Bush administration is asking for ROTC call-up contingency plans. Story
The spinmeisters have it figured this way:
-
The American voters will be "fed" Iraq nonsense for 5 more weeks and will re-elect W.
-
The draft will pop out of committee and be passed at blazing speed when Congress returns.
-
Because there's no alternative to oil in sight, the plan to invade Iran is tracking nicely. Story
The real issues involve corporatism, tax evasion, narcodollars versus petrodollars, and who's on the take/ Did I mention theft of our standard of living, too?
-
Corporations are stealing American jobs, hiding out in offshore tax havens like Ireland. Story
-
Bermuda denies that it is a tax haven. (Are these people on crazy?). Story
-
The Government Accountability Office report says tax evading companies have an edge. Story
-
You'll see more on standard of living issues in Malta than the US lately. Story
-
Where are the mythical high paying non-manufacturing jobs here? Story We read about high income nonmanufacturing jobs, yet that smacks of a white collar shopkeeper's economy. Hype.
You're welcome to endlessly debate about who's the less poorchoice for this nation's highest office. But it's a rich boys club - as evidenced by the two Skull and Bones frat brothers "opposing" each other this year. I went back and reread President Eisenhower's (a real Republican) speech about the dangers to the Union of a military-industrial complex. Ike's guidance seems especially appropriate to reread before voting this year:
"A vital element in keeping the peace is our military establishment. Our arms must be mighty, ready for instant action, so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction.
Our military organization today bears little relation to that known by any of my predecessors in peacetime, or indeed by the fighting men of World War II or Korea.
Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations.
This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.
We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together. " http://coursesa.matrix.msu.edu/~hst306/documents/indust.html
The makers of ploughshares in America are gone – moved to China and small third world countries where they're made by foreign humans paid slave wages. Gone are the quality manufacturing jobs that once made us rich - and respected. They've been replaced with imported disposable baubles, junk food, and imported cars, electronics, and clothes.
Corporate headquarters offshore? I don't remember anyone saying food could be patented - where's the morality there? War for oil and to "test readiness"? Please. America is better than that - a lot better. We're hard working people,. but Ike was right about the danger we face.
Eisenhower's military-industrial complex, it seems, has taken over. Not the patriotic soldiers in the field who follow orders, mind you. But at the top. Where the spin is focused. Where the real sleight of hand takes place.
I have concluded that Ike’s warning was right and that this year’s election is about the military-industrial complex firmly taking control. From “terror” searches at airports, brought about by events we have not finished investigating, to trumped up wars about non-existent WMD’s, the election “issues” we’re fed are a million miles from peaceful ploughshares and nuclear families sharing the joy of many cultures in a prosperous melting pot.
I’ll be writing in my presidential candidate this year: None of the above.
Update: Panama Bates and I stayed up late last night and we might have an even better alternative than "none of the above" - drop by tomorrow after I get some research done.
West Wing on Oil
Matt Savinar over at www.lifeaftertheoilcrach.net has discovered that the TV show "West Wing" may take on the topic of Peak Oil in a November episode. Unfortunately, looks like after the election. http://westwing.bewarne.com/sixth/605hubbert.html
Venezuela Orders MIG-29's
What is President Chavez planning to do with 50 Russian built MIG-29's? http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/09/17/venezuela.shtml
Putin Assassination Plot Follow-up
You may have already heard about the two car bombs that were found in Moscow, but what's leaking out today is that a main suspect in the case was first beaten senseless and then beaten lifeless by Moscow Police pressing hard for information: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/20/carbomb.shtml Remember the "change of plans" talk and assassination attempt report in the latest bot run? This is a good fit:
"A suspect arrested at the scene told investigators he was offered $1,000 to take the car to a major thoroughfare President Vladimir Putin uses to travel to and from the Kremlin, news agencies and television said, quoting security forces. The Kommersant daily has cited an unnamed source in the law enforcement agencies as saying that the suspect, whose name was reported as Pumane was a Russian naval officer on a submarine. "
Bots for the Week
We're almost to the time of the month when according to the web bots we should see increasing movement of gold. Therefore, we will be watching with interest to see if the U.S. dollar begins a decline on Thursday of this week. Some of the factors that might come into play include the storm damage tally from the recent hurricanes through the South. A tremendous amount of infrastructure damage has been done.
In terms past predictions, we figure that our "no movement" during September prediction made back in May of this year is coming true in a curious way: There are literally thousands of people who are being blocked from returning to the storm damaged Pensacola Florida area - and with the complete closure of the main East-West thoroughfare, Interstate 10, we are pleased academically but sad as American's that the "ban or stoppage of travel" in September prediction has now been fulfilled. From a reader:
I am hearing that after "Ivan" hit Franklin, NC there were 100 roads closed and at one time no one could get into the town.
Do you think this may have hit the "No Travel day" WebBot?
You may need to verify this information, but this is what I am hearing.
It's not just NC - it's a huge part of the South. I-10 is down for 4-6 months too - so the no travel restrictions (in the south) are a dead on hit as I see it. Who would have thunk?
Meantime, the chief botster is not convinced, although I am, that the insincerity and related descriptors we were looking for from the last bot run could well be embodied in the CBS war records brouhaha. CBS now slinking away from their claims. Story Only question remaining is "Was this whole flap real or or who was behind this hoodwink the eye operation?"
Now, all we're waiting for is that big double earthquake in California. We think the current round of quakes near the Cal-Nevada border might be precursors: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/
Iran Rejection Not Final, Final, Final?
Frances Harrison's BBC piece today puts the nuclear poke hand over Iran in context - namely she explains how Iran might still have a dodge or two left: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3670660.stm As we explained last week though, the continue Ashoura 5 war games near the Iraq border keep the neocons nervous. Near by, http://www.debka.com/ reports secret talks with Syria to close down the leaky Syria-Iraq border.
Religious Executions
Two high ranking Sunni clerics have been killed in Iraq: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C2AE88B8-9310-48B4-A273-277BAB196667.htm
China - Executing Bankers
One of the reasons we expect to see the world economy quickly degrade - with even a possibility of an economic crash in the stock market possible prior to the election here is that in China there have been a number of banksters executed for fraud: http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2224578 We've heard from reliable sources that more bankers could be put to death in China this week or next for fraud.
Eyes on Oil
As Yukos, the Russian oil giant that Vladimir Putin is trying to take control of - through the courts - has been forced to suspend shipments to China because it doesn't have shipping costs in hand at the moment: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3671820.stm
Wall St. Nervous
Sir Alan and the Boyz down at the Fed seem to have rate hike fever...but it would break and sanity return to the country if Wall Street had its way figures the NY Post in today's editions: http://www.nypost.com/business/30530.htm I'd bet on Wrong Way Al raising again, though. We've got to keep the dollar intact until the election, although the way the web bots have it figured, a misfire on rates this week (in other words a pass on raising) would likely trigger a dollar collapse and soaring gold. Such is the high stakes game of foreign exchange chicken.
Inside Report
This week's report should be up around 5 PM CDT Sunday afternoon. Title: "Nonmanufacturing Jobs and other West Dreams." What an election year surprise: The "Free Lunch" is back in vogue. We examine the mismatch of jobs, training, and media imagery. Subscribing to Inside Report is $30/ year - details here.
Wood Carvers - Help!
If
you know anyone looking for oak to season and work into art, please
click here and drop us a
note. We've got a huge oak tree downed by wind on the ranch here.
Unseasoned. Biggest piece available is 21 feet by about 18" minimum
diameter. Heavy? Oh Lord yes. You'd pay for shipping. Just
seems a shame to use it for firewood.
What we have here at the left is Panama Bates, who we have to keep in check lest the entire neighborhood be leveled by his mighty axe [helped along by a 20" Poulan Pro & some C4], gloating over his wind-downed prey. No sign of a Blue Ox, though we've had an unexplained shortage of flapjacks at the ranch lately.
I think Panama figures to whittle this here twig into a knick knack or a couple of toothpicks. Everything is big in East Texas.
Fact is, we can only allow him just a few teaspoons a day of gasoline for the chain saw on account of his ambition to beat Weyerhaeuser and Louisiana Pacific at their game. He mumbles something about "If John Henry can beat the railroaders..." and off he goes grumbling and then we hear the chain saw start up.
We think he'd settle down if we could just find him a UmLBWF (That'd be a Unmarried large-breasted willing female) But on the other hand, trees and ammunition for plinking are cheaper n' saltpeter and don't raise questions from the DHS folk. That said, If you happen to know anyone who is one of the endangered species that could be called a UmLBWF please have here send her R-17 bona fides to panamabates@peoplepc.com Two beer bounty offered. The ammo and trees aren't free, ya know.
BS Marriage
Don't take our headline about Britney Spears getting married - again - the wrong way, please. Story
Tell a Friend
...about this web site. Click here and send them the link...
For last week's report, click over to www.urbansurvival.com/lastweek.htm
And if you want to do a tremendous amount of reading, click over to www.urbansurvival.com/library.htm There's about that much again for Inside Report subscribers who have access to the back issues of Inside Report.
News from Elliott Wave International
On to Our Charts!
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, Chief Skepticrat and People's Economist
Bulldog Editions when noted are the "early editions". Check back later for a more complete update. Bulletins as warranted. Normal byte times are 8:30 AM (or earlier) CDT Monday-Friday. Weekends as the spirit moves us.