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Blind Eye of Justice

Several readers have send in emails pointing out how there may be something of a double-standard in American military justice staring us in the face which is not being given voice in the MainStreamMedia (MSM) which is off running some kind of context-free agenda, but here's the point of the multiple emails making the rounds:

We all know that Army Staff Sergeant Robert Bales will likely be charged with 17-counts of murder either today, or in the next week, or so.

What the angry emails point out is that the treatment of Bales seems to be almost on a "railroad track" which is vastly different than the treatment of the "suspect" in the 2009 Fort Hood shootings who has not yet been brought to trial. From Wikipedia:

The Fort Hood shooting was a mass shooting that took place on November 5, 2009, at Fort Hood, the most populous U.S. military installation in the world, located just outside Killeen, Texas.[1] In the course of the shooting, a single gunman killed 13 people and wounded 29 others.[1] It is the worst shooting ever to take place on an American military base.[2]

The sole suspect is Nidal Malik Hasan, a U.S. Army Major serving as a psychiatrist. He was shot and taken into custody by Department of the Army Civilian Police officers,[3] and is now paralyzed from the chest down.[4] Hasan has been charged with 13 counts of premeditated murder and 32 counts of attempted murder under the Uniform Code of Military Justice; he may face additional charges at court-martial. If he is convicted, there is a chance he could be given the death penalty.[5][6]

Hasan is an American Muslim of Palestinian descent. Internal Army reports indicate officers within the Army had discussed what they characterized as Hasan's tendencies toward radical Islam since 2005.

As one reader noted: There is something seriously wrong here when a noncom soldier in a combat zone "loses it" and heads immediately into trial while a commissioned officer who [we have to say allegedly] kills 13 of our own soldiers and wounds 29 is still not yet at trial.

Just so we're straight on this: In February, a judge ruled that Hasan will stand trial on June 12th, so no, his case has not been forgotten. And more than a few people (including me) will be watching to see if the military allows as much prep time for Bales or whether the winds of political pressure will blow stronger.

Marine May Be Bounced

As speaking of which, a Marine Sergeant may be facing dismissal from the Corp for putting up a Facebook page which is anti-Obama. Apparently, Sgt. Gary Stein's Armed Forces Tea Party page is a bit much for the military establishment.

More Justice Problems

Then there's the police chief of Stanford, Florida who has temporarily stepped down, say reports like this one, over the shooting of an un-armed black man by an armed neighborhood watch volunteer. Rev. Al Sharpton was among those at the Thursday community protest demonstration.

Within a week, or two, we expect this will be back in headlines again and charges being filed would not surprise us. In the meantime, we realize Justice is supposed to be blind, but with headlines like the ones this morning, we can't help wondering if the blindfold hasn't been slipped a bit.

Firearm Frenzy

Related: I also couldn't help but notice, since I wrote the piece Ammo Shortage 2.0 which appeared over on the www.strategic-living.net site on Wednesday (the story is in the Strategic View #5 article) that gun sales are also continuing to climb with gun maker Ruger mentioning this in the Q1 sales report Wednesday:

"Despite the Company's continuing successful efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders. Consequently, the Company has temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders. "

Wow....but I'm just guessing that this is what happens when free people notice Justice is on spring break. Oh, and the radio bloviators fan this for all its worth, too. Decreases the odds of peace and harmony breaking out, that's for damn sure and it's then that the dangerous feedback cycle could begin.

Stealing Future Dreams

There's that damn headline again... "Student-Loan Debt Tops $1 Trillion" right there on the Wall St. Journal site.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The bankster-class has hung our children out to dry with the ONLY debt that can't be routinely discharged through bankruptcy. Until this changes, the future is downhill from here. It's false advertising to call such things "loans" when it's really a mortgage - a contract unto death and should be disclosed as such: You are mortgaging your life.

Turnabout is Fair Play Dept.

Plenty of headlines about which could give a thoughtful person than the banker class is really our to screw anyone they can. But an RT story this week turns tables on the banker-screwer class by reporting that "Banking Services Withdrawn: Madrid escorts declare sex war..."

It goes without saying that the screwing of the public wasn't enough, apparently.

Crackpot Quake Theory

On the brighter side, sometimes connecting the dots in the headlines can be a lot of (whimsical) fun. For example, while from a civil libertarian standpoint, it's a concern that the US relaxes limits on use of data in terror analysis" there may be a tie-in to a a 5.6 earthquake in Australia this morning.

My crackpot theory is the reason for the quake 200-miles from the US/Aussie snooping post near Alice Springs at Pine Gap may be due to the weight of all the paperwork piling up there...

My new crackpot theory says to expect quakes near the Buckley Air Force base in Colorado, Menwith Hill in England, and maybe in Utah near that NSA super-site to follow...

More after this:

Coping: Monday's Headline, Revisited

When the US stock market didn't promptly enter a massive collapse on Tuesday of this week, after my Monday headline "Time for a Global Pause?" I had a number of neener-neener emails. Yet, as of the close last night, the S&P was down 1.2% since last Friday's close, but even more to the point, markets around the world do - indeed - seem to be reading very much in tune with Monday's headline:

China's Hang Seng is down 3.04% from last Friday's close.
Japan, from Monday's close, is down 1.28%
Similarly, in Europe, Germany is down 2.4% for the week as of this morning's mid-session there.
The CAC-40 of France has dropped 3.58% since last Friday.
And the UK's FTSE was down 1.89% at mid-session compared with week-ago levels.

Not every market in the world is counted in my Global Index - which equally weights a number of the larger markets of interest to US investors. I don't, for example, include India's BSE-30 index, yet this one was down also, though a small 6-10th's of a percent.

Nor does the Aggregate Index look at smaller market averages such as the Athens Composite, which as of this morning was up 6-10th's of a percent. Reason being it is a smaller market and one which is able to run counter to global averages because it has already been taken out back and has the snot kicked out of it this year: Since year-ago levels, this particular market is down 52.5%.

I may sometimes seem like a wild-eyed speculator, but in truth, I'm actually a pretty conservative guy. Remember our last two major investments were gold (from $276 in 2001/2002) and silver (from $6.94-$7.05 in July of 2005).

---

Despite all her faults, America is still the best place on Earth to put hard work and hustle on the line and have a pretty good chance of getting ahead both socially and economically. The main problem we have is that people have allowed themselves to become attention-deficit and a lot of folks, sometimes after so little as a single setback, toss up their hands in frustration and quit putting forth effort.

It's hard to fight the "give up" mentality, mainly because hustle is hard work and there are lots of distractions trying to divert people from being successful. As a nation, we've got a pretty good system of social supports, like food stamps, free or reduced cost healthcare, and a fair number of job training programs.

Even though I often grouse about how many of the newly created jobs the Obama administration touts are lower income, the fact is that a job - any job - is better than no job. What's missing is the mindset and the willingness to get your hands dirty (like my septic tank work this week) if that's what it takes.

Although I \certainly fit the profile of a "prepper" I'm also a student of self-improvement programs. Although it has largely gone out of style, the Positive Mental Attitude (PMA) crowd has a message that is just as important to America's future as "preppers" because they are the other side of the coin.

I remember a few years talking to a friend who summed up this "duality" of thought. "Plan for the worst, hope for the best."

Since we seem to have made it to another Friday, the world is still here, and if you've been working "for The Man" all week, now comes the weekend when you can really dig in and do some serious work on your own behalf. Maybe spending a little time on some self-improvement courses and books wouldn't be a bad thing if you haven't tried it lately. Negativity and fear-mongering sites may get more traffic than we do, but our focus is the long-term and balance is critical.

On the audio side, there are oodles of self-improvement courses in written and audio form...and for some video hit the "Ted talks" site and try at least two hours per week substituting some brain-stretching new ideas instead of another shoot-em up, or lowest common denominator crap that keeps average people just that...average.

I particularly liked the Ted Talk from a 17-year old that went up this month: "Taylor Wilson: Yup, I built a nuclear fusion reactor..." Only 3 1/2 minutes.

And instead of listening to political bloviators in the car, a CD player could be playing Earl Nightingale - Lead The Field (6 CD UNABRIDGED + 1 CD Workbook) (about $25). This, and his other courses, even though we think we know everything, help keep the balance right.

My son shocked me a while back when he referred to a book which I must have read 40-years ago: Psycho-Cybernetics, A New Way to Get More Living Out of Life ($8, Amazon). "It's a really good book and explains a lot about people, Dad..." Yes, it does.

---

Life is all about balance. It's fine to be a serious prepper, since something is bound to go wrong. Storms, earthquakes, strikes, or whatever. But just because the world will have speed-bumps doesn't mean withdrawing or becoming politically polarized. I can think of nothing more dangerous than an urge to prep coupled to an extreme political viewpoint that sees the end of the world at every turn. Leads to Aum Shinrikyo kind of thinking.

The world's a pretty big place, actually, and been around for a few years, too. And, near as I can figure, it will be around for many more. What give you the greatest chance of (to borrow from Nightingale) leading the field as a human?

Looking once in a while over the shoulder, looking at the storms sneaking up on us, but the rest of the time, keeping your eye straight ahead - focused on the future and making the right investments in yourself to have the right mix of brains and assets not only for right now but for next year as well.

I think we've talked in the past about "time seeds" but it's worth reiterating: I try to think of everything I do throughout the day as seeds that I am planting which I will harvest later on. Some are ideas, some are actions. A new way of looking at a problem for a client is an example of an intangible time seed, listening to Nightingale, Brian Tracy, Wayne Dyer, or others, while going to Lowes to get a part for a weekend project, is another.

On the tangible side, I should have half a dozen - or more - tangible/deliverables on our "personal account" finished up by the time the weekend is over. 10-more pages on one of the books I'm writing, another ham radio updated, a lawn mowed, and on goes my list; you have your own, of course.

Even if I were working for "the Man" I'd still be getting ahead faster than most, because I hold to a 60-hour workweek minimum. That's 40-hours for others and at least 20 for our own account.

Doesn't leave much (or often any) time for television, but 20-hours a week of consciously planing "time seeds" - things you can harvest in the future - seems like a very worthwhile way to spend any day. And there ain't no bigger block of "time seed planting time" for most people than 5 PM Friday to 8 AM Monday.

Meantime, a Global Pause started this week, as we discussed Monday.

A Plug for George II

Proud Dad moment here. If you live in Seattle, and can book the time, the Seattle-King County Red Cross is holding its 16th Annual Heroes Breakfast on Tuesday morning (27th) at 7:30 AM at the Washington State Convention Center...

One of this year's seven recipients is...care to guess?

Compassion in Action Award – George Ure of Kirkland for his volunteer efforts and dedication to emergency preparedness.

In part for going to Joplin, and in part for trying to put a couple of people back together after a tragic motorcycle accident and other such things. More on the other honorees here.

I was going to fly up to be on hand, but in our "You can only spend it once" discussion, G (the 2nd) would rather see the money put toward fuel for the plane so he can book more flight time when he comes down. I don't have to tell him much around the "time seed" concept - he gets it: You can only spend it once.

Going Ex-Pat?

We have mentioned many times the seemingly increasing number of Americans who have "going ex-pat" which is to say, moving to another country. We have regular reader in all kinds of places - China, Ecuador, Chile, everywhere in Europe, and so forth.

Until recently, though, I didn't realize the size of the growing contingent of former US residents who were moving to Uruguay. Hmmm...something to think about, but before you cash in your chips and blow town, a reality check on what it's like is probably in order and for that a check of "My Day in Uruguay" is in order.

Doug DuBosque has some very interesting stories to tell...I found his adventure with "Cutting Edge lighting in Uruguay" very informative, for example.

We've also had some interesting discussion about best ways to learn Spanish since both Elaine and I are nibbling at that:

Having gone from zero to conversational in Spanish in my fifties, I recommend the Michel Thomas course. Nothing to study or write; you just listen.

Not cheap, but you can find the course Michel Thomas Method™ Spanish For Beginners, 10-CD Program (Michel Thomas Series) for $104. I picked up a discounted program on eBay of another teacher (16 CD's worth) for about $30...but we are starting to think about this pretty seriously because I've got a wild-hair of an idea percolating around in the back of my mind...

Dream Flight?

Our old beater of an airplane which we got into for just under $20,000 is still in the shop for its annual checkup but when it come out, we have a couple of decent-sized flights ahead. I told you about the Columnists.com convention in Macon, but then this summer we will also head to the Pacific Northwest again, too. We'll probably put 15,000 miles plus on the plane this year.

But I keep thinking about flying somewhere really, really exotic in the old plane - and here's where Spanish learning comes in. I've been doodling a flight which would go down Mexico, stopping in Central America and Panama then on to Ecuador (promise of a free beer from a reader there) then down Peru, Chile, and back up the other side. Uruguay is a possibility.

Competing with this half-baked idea is the alternative: flying to Europe, up over Canada, Alaska, down Siberia, over to Moscow, and into whatever will be left of the EU.

I'm not sure whether this really a Grand Adventure stuff coming to mind hasn't been partially prompted by the AOPA magazine doing a piece of flying the outer islands of the Bahamas a couple of months back, or if this is how dementia begins.

Jury's out on that. But, without big dreams, why do we go to work? If you don't have big dreams, you'll never grow into them,

Site Improvement Week

Say, it just occurred to me that it has been a while (in years) since I have asked the question "What should I improve on my website(s)?" Maybe there is something you like (and want more over) or maybe something that needs tweaking ("I want different colors...") or whatever. If so, send me an email to george@ure.net and put just the word "website" on the subject line so my email router will drop it in the right To-Do pile...thanks!

That's it for now - tomorrow Peoplenomics looks at the modern analog to the Civilian Conservation Corps which has quietly served almost 600,000 Americans so far, while the CCC helped 2½ million during the last Depression.

And come on by Monday as I unveil my Junk Food Diet...

Before we go...our Clean Joke of the Week:

Cardiologist and Motorcycle Mechanic

A motorcycle mechanic was removing a cylinder head from the motor of a Harley-Davidson, when he spotted a well-known cardiologist in his shop.

The cardiologist was there waiting for the service manager to come and take a look at his car when the mechanic shouted across the garage, "Hey Doc, want to take a look at this?" The cardiologist, a bit surprised walked over to where the mechanic was working on the motorcycle.

T he mechanic straightened up, wiped his hands on a rag and asked, "So Doc, look at this engine. I opened its heart, took the valves out, repaired or replaced anything damaged, and then put everything back in, and when I finished, it worked just like new. So how is that I make $24,000 a year and you make $1.7M when you and I are doing basically the same work?"

The cardiologist paused, leaned over, and then whispered to the mechanic..... "Try doing it with the engine running."

Write when you break even: george@ure.net

Of Interest to Readers:

Be Sure to Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear. You're going to buy things on Amazon, so use this handy portal...

Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com:

Prospects: Heading Off Intergenerational Warfare

Slipping by, in the wake of the evening news, there's something in the froth that has been bothering me for a long time. It's a sense of rising frustration and desperation in the voices of the under 35-crowd. I hear it from my kids - if I listen between the lines and loan requests - and I see it in the headlines, now that I know what I'm looking for. And it shows up in everything from voter demographics to the viral Kony vid to the report this week about kinds moving back in with their parents at rates not seen since the early 1950's. Does it have a peaceful, happy ending? But, before we get into that, we first need to romp through the morning's headlines and see if we can make at least a little sense out of the evermore irrational world around us...

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Safer Computing: Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy - and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

You need an active cookie manager - because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience. This part gets handled by Maxa Labs' product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 "web bugs" which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.
Second thing you need is a good antivirus program - and I happen to really like Avira's Antivir pro.
Then you need to deal with Malware so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.
And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual - Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example: Don't open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet's actually a useful tool.

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"

It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.

Do Tell

Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!

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Last week's report is always here.

Thursday March 22, 2012

Watching the Derivative Bubble

Another quarterly report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is out and the executive summary goes like this:

Executive Summary

Insured U.S. commercial banks reported trading revenues of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, 70% lower than revised1 third quarter revenues of $8.5 billion, and 27% lower than $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Credit exposure from derivatives fell in the fourth quarter. Net current credit exposure decreased 15%, or $74 billion, to $430 billion.

Trading risk exposure, as measured by Value-at-Risk (VaR), decreased in 2011 as dealers actively reduced risk in the face of increasing global financial risks. Aggregate average VaR at the 5 largest trading companies declined 9.3% from 2010 to $680 million.

The notional amount of derivatives held by insured U.S. commercial banks fell $17 trillion, or 7%, from the third quarter of 2011, to $231 trillion. The fourth quarter decline in notionals followed a 0.6% decline during the third quarter, and marks the first time notionals have declined in consecutive quarters. Notional derivatives at year-end were 0.2% lower than at the end of 2010, the first year-over-year decline on record.

Derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate products, which comprise 81% of total derivative notional amounts. Credit derivatives, which represent 6% of total derivatives notionals, fell 6% to $14.8 trillion.

So how big is the bubble?

The notional amount of derivatives contracts held by insured U.S. commercial banks in the fourth quarter fell by $17.2 trillion (6.9%) to $230.8 trillion from the third quarter. Notionals had also fallen 0.6% during the third quarter. The declines in notionals in the third and fourth quarter mark the first time notionals have fallen in consecutive quarters. The fourth quarter decline in notionals, the largest dollar decline (and third largest percentage decline) on record, reflects ongoing trade compression activities, in which dealers terminate trades among each other, as well as substantially reduced client activity toward the end of the year. The decline in client activity reflects not only seasonal trends but also broad-based uncertainty associated with a range of issues, most notably the continuing focus on European sovereign debt. The notional amount of derivatives at year-end 2011 is 0.2% lower than a year ago, the first time notionals have fallen on an annual basis."

I get a kick out of following this, because it's more money than there is on Earth. Except it isn't....In theory none of this can ever become real, but if it did, the derivatives notional value is $15.4 years of total US GDP - and that's the insured banks only! Where my ViseGrips and crack pipe?

Another Wasted Day in Global Affairs

I can't speak for you, but for me, going through the news some mornings seems to underline how stupidly the world is run. Not to mention the obvious here, but when I read how the UN Chief is arguing for a ceasefire in Syria, I find myself wondering "What's he gonna say otherwise? Come on out and let's have a good street fight and see who can kill the most?" In my most cynical moments, I wonder why he couldn't have figured this out what...three or four months back?

Then in the "Like father - like son" department, we see how North Korea says any criticism of its nuclear program would be a 'declaration of war.' Near as I can figure this one, there's a hole in North Korea's education system, because I was hoping Junior would have been able to figure out that if he keeps spending money on militarization, his people will continue to starve. But maybe he'll figure that out some day.

Or not. The reason being that war - like it or not - is the largest industry on the planet after the making of food. It's a stupid way to run a world, when you think about it. But, without war, people would have time off to think, and that could lead to all kinds of dangerous consequences - things like accountability in politics, demanding honest money instead of war-paper.

So pardon me, when I read about the latest little bit of warring - the coup d' etat in Mali, I immediately wonder who's going to grab the Markala sugar project and is someone going after a (literal) hostile takeover of Randgold's mining operations in country?

Hate to admit it, but every time I see new hostilities break out, it doesn't usually take too long to find an economic reason for war, after all, everything is a business model...even in Mali.

Maybe it's not really a wasted day in global affairs. Especially if you're a banker in the backroom where even death is a business model - one of the highest paying of all. Sick world, huh?

Blame Game's a Gas

Not to continue on such a sour note, but we have to admit the John Rogers. AP story about how the unhappy public is not sure who to blame for high gas prices.

Sure 'nuf, a check of the Triple A Fuel Gauge Report shows premium is $4.151 compared to $3.820 a year ago. It's understandable why - when faced with 8.664% inflation at the pumps - why government policymakers and their puppet master bankers blather on endlessly about the importance of the core rate of inflation; the cost of living without food or energy.

I suppose with enough servants and a chauffer those things don't matter, but to the 99...guess what?

Political Policing

Cleansed of my initial reaction to another morning of headlines which beg the question "Is there intelligent Life on Earth?" we move on to noticing that the LA city council is now going on record in favor of diversity in talk radio and condemning hate speech.

This is actually sort of amusing. First, what goes on radio stations is dictated by the FCC. Secondly (repeat after me: Everything is a business model) hate speech (and the deification of Ronald Reagan) seems to be a pretty successful business model.

Last time I checked, there were about 169 stations in the LA market (35 Spanish plus 11 regional Mexican, 16 religious, yada, yada...) so it isn't like people have no choice. Even in the talk radio segment there are at least 7-stations and that's not counting 10 different news-talk stations and two pure newsers (KNX and KZSB). And that's not counting the amazing explosion of Internet radio.

While we appreciate the LA city council trying to do what's right, they're up against good old-fashioned American money. What bears some thinking time is why see see "voting with our wallets" as easy, yet the voting with our ears and eyes is an often invisible choice.

Politics, II

Sheriff Joe Arpaio says there is a "ton" of additional info on president Obama's curiously missing pass that's coming to light as his investigators continuing turning up people, including here recently, a man who delivered mail to a home where an Obama-looking youth was described as a "foreign student".

In the latest goings on, Sheriff Joe says it's "...the biggest censorship blackout in the history of the United States."

Euro Anti-Semitism Rising

A poll out (timing to the French school shooting noted) shows that anti-Semitism has risen a fair bit since 2009.

"Why?" you're wondering? Well, data I'm reading says about 2,500 illegals a week are pouring into Europe from North Africa...and most are Muslim and since this pencils out to about 400,000 in three years, not to mention another million or more legally, what exactly would you expect? How quickly people forget the car burning spree of a couple of years back.

Continuing Unemployment

A small tick up in the weekly labor data:

In the week ending March 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 353,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 356,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending March 10, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 2.7 percent.

With rgard to the highlighted part, it's about here that I start thinking of rum because just a few sentences later they say

"The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 3 was 7,281,541, a decrease of 142,499 from the previous week."

Given a workforce of about 153-million, that many unemployed comes out 4.7% and we all know that the reported unemployment number was 8.3% so if you want to work out what all these numbers really mean, the press release is over here and have at it.

As a good writing exercise, if you can distill this down to a couple of sentences, the translation of the statisticalguck would be of genuine interest.

The fun part - if you're sitting at home without a job - is reading through government press releases to find out if you're really without a job, or not. Frankly, there's no telling.

Coping: With Periodic Quake Risks

In Peoplenomics Wednesday, we discussed the possibility of a 188.5 day earthquake cycle as posited by Patrick Geryl (and others). For example, a reader contributed this:

"Hello George, The earthquake yesterday, the 20th, was two days off the 188 day cycle. The writer of the theory, Lucas, has it specifically on the 188 day. His data does show that on the 188 day, there will be a "great" quake. His math seems to be accurate. His Ley lines do not support the Mexico quake either. Now, he does have a additional time frame around the 188, that supports other quakes. But, his video presentation does appear to be specific on time. The history also supports his theory. Also, the last three 188 day quakes did effect the planet axis. At what time do we stop calling something a theory?"

With the 7.4 quake on Tuesday in Oaxaca, wit struck another reader as mighty-damn interesting that literally - the day of the quake if I am reading this right - local government held an earthquake drill around the possibility of a 7.9 shaker. You can look at the report (machine translated) from El Heraldo de Chiapas here.

Since this is of broad public concern, here's the data I put up for Peoplenomics readers on Wednesday about how the 188.5 day outlook stacks up:

Ideal Date	Event Linkage?
4/3/2013
9/26/2012
3/22/2012	Accapulco 7.4
9/15/2011	Fiji 7.3
3/11/2011	Japan, 9.0
9/3/2010	New Zealand, 7.0
2/27/2010	Chile 8.8
8/22/2009	Japan 6.7,Banda Sea 6.9 *cluster
2/15/2009	Kuril Islands, 7.4
8/10/2008	Honbshu, 6.9 (7/23)
2/4/2008	Chgile 6.3, on 2/8 a 6.9 N. Atlantic
7/30/2007	7.2 Vanuatu *(8/1)
1/23/2007	Molluca Sea, 7.5 *(1/21)
7/18/2006	S. iof Java, 7.7 *(7/17)
1/11/2006	S Sandwich Is. 7.4 (*(1/02)
7/6/2005	Indonesia 6.7 *(7/5) 1 mo. Cluster
12/30/2004	Banda Aceh 9.1 (12/26)
6/24/2004	Kamchatka 6.9 *(6/10)
12/19/2003	Taiwan 6.8 *(12/10)
6/13/2003	Brazil, Amazon 7/1 *6/20
12/7/2002	Kuril Islands, 7.3 *(11/17)
6/1/2002	[miss]
11/25/2001	[miss]
5/20/2001	[miss]

Note in the data that there seems to be two kinds of events. Large singular events (with aftershocks, of course) like the 3/11/2011 quake off Japan while others like the 7/6/2005 date seem to be a cluster. I also wonder what changed in late 2002?

It would appear - just as a dart toss here - that what we are having now is a cluster - with the quake yesterday in New Guinea which was a 6.6.

This all seems to coincide with that long-term increase in large quakes which we have graphed around here many times, thanks to reader Tony Ring's generous contributions of USGS database crunching.

No doubt, speaking of such back-of-the-envelope guesstimates will land me in hot water with geophysical purists who contend that such things are not predictable, but the data could be interpreted as having a soft to fairly firm fit and like the one reader asked "At what point do we stop calling something a theory?"

Then there are the mysterious noises in Clintonville, Wisconsin, which is just up north of the New Madrid midsection of America.

Sometimes, in a moment of serious reflection (I had one once) I ask what would this country be like without the Pacific Northwest, California, or the Great Lakes?

More Reader's Writes

People are still bristling about our discussion last week of the fasts-developing "opportunity gap" which is being worked between oldsters and youngsters (under 35 is young anymore, lol).

In response to the fellow who mentioned how his luxury car was 14-years old and his house much older, one of the burdened young sent this:

"Dear Mr Ure, Just had to drop a note about your oppressed oldster friend with the out of date luxury car.

Perhaps he might be interested to know that I started working at 17 and am now 36, working whenever I could find a job. I have ZERO houses of any age. My highly non-luxury car is 11 years old with over 150K miles on it. My wife's car, which she bought before we were married, is about 5 years old. I have ZERO motorcycles of any age. I have ZERO Chinese scooters of any age. I have ZERO three year old Jeeps. Maybe if he can't afford gas for his Jeep he could sell off some of the other stock in his mini auto showroom.

In order to live MY fat lifestyle of owning no houses and supporting a wife and 18 month old child, I have to work two jobs and commute 40 miles each way. And whether gas be high or low, I have to go anyway or we'll all be out in the street. "

Further discussion of this should probably be shelved for now, since both sides have points to make, but we have no way of getting anything done, since the bankster class holds Washington since their unlimited purchase of government was approved in the Citizens United case by the US Corporate Court.

Still, if would be a positive move for young people for congress to get off their collective butts & wherefores and fix the student loan mess so that higher education doesn't get a free pass and so students can get the debt of a many times useless education off their backs, since often they were relying on government jobs projections which were in some cases wildly off the mark.

Gee, imagine what kind of country we'd have if higher education had gone through the same price reductions as people suffered in home values, huh? Instead, it has been one of the fastest inflating items you can find and with the shackles-unto-death put on student loan recipients by the bankster class, it should come as no surprise that young people are pissed and not making big investments in the future of America.

We've stolen their dreams to fund ours. Were the arbiter of such things not the Supreme Corps, a reasonable argument could be made that when a young person coming up doesn't have a chance to vote on past debt obligations, that constitutes taxation without representation.

But like I said, who's gonna make bank on that kind of logic? Like so much else in America today, the insanity of it is obvious, and it sure as hell is the truth, but so what? Can't upset the status quo, now, can we?

Around the Ranch: Saving on Septic Repairs

Although at times they get a bad rap, septic tanks are one of the most interesting devices ever made to hook up to Mr. Crapper's finest innovations.

I do, at times, wonder how they work in places like Arizona, where I've heard reports that some contractors actually pour concrete foundation slabs over the drain field when the home involved is built on a sandy lot.

Our little adventure started late Tuesday when both toilets decided to flush extremely slowly. Oh-oh...one toilet could be a simple plugged line which might have been resolved with a "plumber's friend" (plunger) but two at once? Bad sign, since we haven't done anything (or even thought much) about our septic system except to feed it yogurt and Rid-X every so often.

First thing on the list was to find it - which proved easy since the ground is almost mud from heavy rains here, still took a good half-hour to poke here and there - find the line from the house, follow it out, poke around till the tank is found and then open it up and see what was causing the problem besides being full since we have never had it pumped.

There are two schools of thought on septic systems (gravity type): One school holds that you should have the system pumped every year or two in order to keep things in tip-top shape. The other school, a lot lazier (and more thrifty) thinks everything should be left alone until trouble is indicated. I had easily fallen into this latter camp, since it required no work and saved money.

After pumping, but before buttoning it up, we found two problems. First was that the record rainfall here in East Texas had simply saturated the hillside on which we live. Gentle slope and a good installation, but (was that with one t or two?) with 6.18 inches of rain already this month, the flip side of Great Texas Drought has arrived.

Consequently, the field lines were self-cleaned by several hundred gallons of rainwater backwashing the system's drain field. The one other problem was despite turning off the water to the house, there was still a flow coming in from the house side of the system.

Well, it turned out, much as expected by the pumping truck driver John, who's been at this kind of thing for years, that the drought had moved pipes around and - as was our experience - the ground movement going from ultra-dry to super-saturated was all it took for one pipe to crack (we have no idea when) but then along came a tree root from a tree 35-feet away, near abouts.

Home Handy Bastards Club sharing moment here: John the Septic Whiz tells me you don't glue the long sections of PVC: They go together all the way, but if you glue them, due to ground movement - caused by heating, cooling, wet, dry and whatever else ground does in slow enough motion not to be noticed - the piping will break. So the only places where glue is used is on angle fittings. Good stuff to know...

Nearby, Zeus and Pusscilla were doing their dead-level best to play the role of inspectors while Panama did most of the work and I did a little this, that, and the other thing. Like writing the pumping check.

Elaine now has her honorary septic system helper's ticket, knowing the difference between Schedule 20 and Schedule 40 pipe and where is lives at the local Lowes. Four hours of messing about in the front yard, followed by lots of bleach (tools, boots) and a shower later, life was returning to normal. A final pump this morning and back filling, likely a half-hour task with the tractor.

People don't think much about plumbing day-to-day. It's something folks take for granted - until it stops working. When that happens, things get interesting quickly. Very small repairs like replacing a broken fitting, can be owner-installed, most places, go beyond that, however and you're into system modification (moving pipe, drain fields, and so forth) which starts a cascade into permits, red tape, and a lot of money.

I took the opportunity to research complete system replacement and turns out it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be: A system for a three-bedroom home can be done (parts and permits included) in this part of the country for $5- thousand to $6-thousand dollars. That's for a gravity system which means your soil has to pass a "perc test" (ours does) otherwise, the price of systems quickly run up into the low 5-digit range.

These so-called aerobic treatment systems do a very complete job of cooking their contents leaving reasonably treated water which can be sprayed on lawns and so forth. Still, no matter how well treated the effluent off these systems is, it still smells like....

Despite their "build-em-anywhere" capabilities, another reason we aren't too fond on these higher tech designs is that they all rely on electricity for the pumping of treated waste. Without the pumps, most of these type systems fill and can potentially fail when the power goes.

This morning, John the pump truck driver will be back to haul off the rest of the drain field backflow from the rain and we will button the system up, still no closer to the absolute best-case answer to the question "Pump regularly, or wait till it breaks?" Near as we can figure (from the rain-driven backflow) the field lines are in great shape and with a cracked fitting repaired (and a couple of roots cut back) ought to be good for another 9-year stretch.

In an earlier time, I might have put a baggy of copper sulphate on the root to discourage the tree. I don't think you can even buy the stuff anymore without getting authorities interested. have to admit it did cross my mind. Maybe some ammonium would work...

And if we ever build another house on the property, or if you do something extravagant like that, our research discovered that for a 2,000 square foot house, a gravity system would pencil out in the $2.50 to $3.00 per square foot of building costs while an aerobic treatment system will push that up to $5.00-$7.00 per square foot of building...good numbers to have in mind if you ever work up plans for a dream house and start pushing "What if?" numbers around.

And, if your dreams are as detailed as to be outlined in MS Project, figure a minimum of 2-weeks in your timeline for paperwork and permitting in reasonably-governed areas, but as much as a three or four of months in runaway bureaucracy areas. Interesting crap to know and not often discussed in the prepper community.

Wednesday March 21, 2012

The Wednesday Reader Brief

Odds of another major earthquake (we'd be talking 7+ on the Richter scale) are high through at least Friday because this morning in our Peoplenomics report we as a very interesting question based on the Mexico quake yesterday:

Did a "Planet X" Arrive in 2002?

This morning we discuss (in non-mathematical terms, but while looking at charts) what kind of declining response governments around the world are getting from their various prop-up efforts to keep the paper market afloat, while moves continue trying to stampede people (as in Sweden) into the cashless society. But, before we put on the lab coats and wander into the "clean room" of data, the dirty old headlines demand some attention first, especially that 188-189 day cycle of major earthquakes. Did something happen in 2002?

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Unfortunately, there is a case to be made - with earthquake data that this might be the case.

Elsewhere this morning, we are pleased with response to our latest over at www.strategic-living.com where we wonder ahead of the fresh-water fishing season whether it's really reasonable to call fishing a survival skill. My friend Gaye is concerned about the "Rising Tsunami of the Police State" (and a couple of fresh examples in Peoplenomics this morning, too...

Earthquake Update

The discussion we were having earlier this week involving Patrick Geryl's work on a 188-189 day earthquake cycle has become alarmingly accurate with the quake in Mexic this afternoon. First reports have the magnitude at 7.9 revised down to in the vicinity of Acapulco.

Maps and more here...

Main thing about this quake is it would seem to increase the odds of a major quake in the California to BC (northern Vancouver Island area) since we have seen megaquakes in Chile, Japan, now Mexico, and lest we forget the 2004 Banda Aceh quake which killed 300,000. So if the Pacific Northwest being readied for a good-sized smack down the road? We will await developments, although admittedly a bit more nervously now.

An Election Day Oddity

Well, sort of. Although the page is gone now, a reader in Chicago says a local network affil web site had a page up with results already on it.

Of course, if Rick Santorum gets 32% and 987,453 votes in Illinois today to Romney's 29% and 919,993, then we would expect rioting in the streets tomorrow but of course that won't happen. (gulp...)

Aw, come on...I'm sure they were just testing the page layout with dummy data...we're just sure of it....err....right? If Newt Gagrich gets 28%? 876,937? I might be out there myself...

On a more conventional stance, it's a "must win" state for Romney. Yada, yada, yada.

China Coup?

We're skeptical.....(think Kony here)...but...There's a story getting traction out of Beijing that goes to the idea of trouble in the upper ranks of Chinese government including rumors of a coup.

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While we haven't yet polled our China experts on the matter (too early for that) there was a 1 percent drop in Chinese markets overnight, but playing follow-the-money may not be too useful, since the US market is likely to open down a hundred, or so in the early going, because, as we suggested in Monday's headline, we're about due for a kind of global "pause that refreshes."

Still, if China sneezes, the world gets a cold - most of Europe is down 1% -0 or more - and no revolution rumors floating around there.

Housing Data

Newest out this morning from Census:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for February 2012:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. This is 5.1 percent (±1.2%) above the revised January rate of 682,000 and is 34.3 percent (±3.1%) above the February 2011 estimate of 534,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 472,000; this is 4.9 percent (±1.2%) above the revised January figure of 450,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 219,000 in February.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000. This is 1.1 percent (±15.9%)* below the revised January estimate of 706,000, but is 34.7 percent (±16.7%) above the February 2011 rate of 518,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 457,000; this is 9.9 percent (±11.4%)* below the revised January figure of 507,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 233,000. HOUSING

COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 568,000. This is 6.2 percent (±15.8%)* above the revised January estimate of 535,000, but is 7.0 percent (±14.1%)* below the February 2011 rate of 611,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 421,000; this is 8.2 percent (±18.9%)* above the revised January rate of 389,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 144,000.

And they pick up their hammers and saw...

Port Data

Looking at how things are going on West Coast docks - the real place where imports and exports go down...

Long Beach was down 18% in February on inbound, while outbound was down 1.58%/
Los Angeles was down 7.8% inbound, outbound was up 9.56% in Feb.
Port of Seattle inbound was down 9.7% compared with last year.

What does it all mean? Well, just a "fer-instance" here: If you were thinking about buying a new flat-screen, monitors, computer gear, or whatever, might pull the trigger on that soon since typically when traffic inbound falls, supplies tighten up and yep...prices go up with that.

March to War

We can't help but notice that Iraq is turning into a hell-hole here lately with the Washington Post reporting eight attacks which have killed 46 (and counting) ahead of an Arab summit. I'm having a hard time with people saying "we won" something there. I mean oil concessions aside.

\---

Syria is getting nastier with rebels, who are reported in something of a strategic retreat.

Cashing In Sweden

Here's one that oughta make credit card issuers and banksters jump for joy: Sweden is moving towards a cashless society. Of course, so are we, but that doesn't seem to make headlines.

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My main bitch with the cashless world is that then government holds all the cards, and the people have nothing. That's a crooked deal if there ever was one, since government and the people ruled seem to work best when there's a sensible balance. Take away a man's money, and for the most part, you've got his freedom, too.

Weathering Spring

Good cold front coming through our area with tons of lightning in East Texas - and heavy rains overnight. Elsewhere, the National Weather Service posted this warning earlier and this will likely move on east to Akysaw and maybe into the ArkLaTex as the day moves on...

Coping: With Incomplete Thoughts

Some mornings (5 AM comes pretty early) when I write my columns, I am guilty of incomplete thoughts. Which wouldn't be a crime in itself, except that people who I haven't explained what page I'm on at the moment sometimes get miffed (and in some cases pissed) about my choice of words here and there.

For example, two readers of yesterday's column sent in the following which deserve to be discussed, so you can at least understand where I was at the time I was writing. The gentler one first, so we can sort of work into what turns out to be a Bad George! report:

"oldsters...fat lifestyles"? Isn't that just a little bit of subliminal positioning in the intergenerational war that's being pushed as part of TPTB divide & conquer strategy? Shame on you.

The second one on point was this:

"I'm an oldster, still working for at&t. In the last 12 years they have surplussed thousands,,, many more thousands have retired. Out of all this I myself can only recall one (1) positioned being refilled. These Amerikan companies are not rehiring their layed off or retired so IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW LONG WE OLDSTERS WORK!

My home is 50 years old. My luxury car is 14 years old. Two motorcycles, one is 14 years old and the other is 31 years old and a 6 year old Chinese scooter. I have a 3 year old Jeep I rarely drive because I cannot afford today's gas. That's a fat lifestyle?

Now if you want to talk about CEO's, Government officials and or workers,,, owners of Porsche's and/or Airplanes as living a fat lifestyle then have at it. But to group all oldsters as living a "FAT" lifestyle is over the top and just journalistic BS not to mention trying to stir that old generational distrust.

You KNOW who is to blame and why. Long ago you actually wrote about it,,,,,,,, remember? So why all the BS

Your worried about the young not having jobs!! You should be worried about them just surviving the womb and soon they'll be killing them at 1-3 years old. Then if they make that cut they'll be drugged to ensure their obedience.

Compare that to oldsters staying in the workforce a little longer. Since our nation seems to be welcoming the new fascism with open arms, checkout the Nazis solution for their oldsters... And remember,,, both of us are closing in on that useless eater stage as we speak."

Actually, yes, it is a fat lifestyle compared to what today's young people are facing, and maybe it's because the National Bank of Dad is making education loans again, or maybe it's because last week's Peoplenomics report got into some of the unemployment factors facing the young, or maybe it's because I've been researching the modern analog to the Civilian Conservation Corps - because that's the topic of this coming weekend's Peoplenomics report, but at the moment I am highly sensitive to three very critical items facing our nation because they will make or break American in the next 20-years.

Just like the first Depression (are following World War) "paid it forward" so that from 1954 to about 1970, this country experienced a marvelous time of growth, recreation, and good (e.g. small) government. We are now only at the beginning of the Second Depression which is happening before our eyes, but has been spaced out over time, so we don't notice it as much.

But the facts are still facts.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the stock market has never been higher than it was in the opening months of 2000. Outsourcing/jobjacking has killed the jobs market.
Since then, we have have not one, but now two stock market downturns including the 2001-2003 lows and the 2008-2009 lows.
We have has similar misery in foreclosures to the 1930's, except the government and banks have papered it over - somewhat - but real estate is not in a position yet to recover and may not be for years.

Worst of all, however, is that America's young have been put into a dead-end, "got nothing to lose" box thanks to the greedy banksters who managed to exempt student loans from the normal processes of bankruptcy which seem to discharge all other debts.

The major difference, therefore, between THIS depression and the 1930's event was that in the 1930's it was still possible to float slogans like "Good Times are Just Ahead..." and not have you people laughing their asses off at the idea. They picked up and got on with things.

You know why? Because in those times, once bankruptcy was done, a person got back to a free - ground state autonomous human level - and could with a little gumption and a lot of hard work - start over again. Not these days - and it's very bad for the future of America, as I see it.

Voters don't seem to recognize that:

Young people are locked into LIFETIME DEBT which cannot be discharged through bankruptcy.
Because they have been maneuvered into this position, they are getting angry - and at some level, government knows this, and yes, that's probably why the NSA is building the largest-ever snoop spot out in Utah, because the people in Washington recognize at some level that they will need to monitor their own citizenry more closely. Only this time, they won't have to build in England or Australia and hire foreign nationals (who are not barred by law) from snooping on American-to-American chit-chat because the real significance of the Utah NSA snoop-plant is not that we're turning into a police state, it's that we have enacted unjust policies of the sort which have led to revolutions in the past. Government fears something - and maybe with good reason.
As in any revolution, someone is going to be made the scapegoats, and if you listen to the Occupy groups, particularly the Occupy Student Debt followers, particularly if you go read the story there about "White Collar Robbery" the fat and the bankster class are in their sights, like it or not.

The fix we are in as a country is really, really simple: Our standard of living is declining in order to expand the wealth of the super-rich via the policies of their bankster-lackeys, who in turn have a financial choke collar on the legislative arm called Congress, which once-upon-a-time did the right thing. The evolution toward police state/corporate debt serfdom, is already clear to see. And building more "security state" apparatus (in places like Utah) makes sense because it keeps money flowing - into the same old hands.

So when I sometimes write about "grays" (including us) who are "fat" it's as much to remind me that our lifestyle isn't done declining yet, as it is to state a reality that most people aren't comfortable with: If your lifestyle is as good, or better, than it was in 2000, you're probably in "the fat" and if we as a nation don't actively do something to relieve young people of the non-dischargeable debt slavery the banksters have cast over the young which has stolen from them the American Dream, then we're still living in the Big House on the plantation while turning the next generation into field hands - at best.

I'll try not to use the word "fat" in this context in the future since folks seem to get a wee bit riled up over it. How about "The Yet-To-Be-Dispossessed"?

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I'm in that category, to be sure and freely admit it. We see what's coming clear as day. Yes, I once owned a 19 year old Porsche; that was a short-term "dream" - gone in less than 2-years. And the airplane (another dream) is 46-years old and cost (even with improvements) less than a new Kia and gets about the same mileage point to point. Did I mention we live in a mobile home which folks up north would call a trailer?

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There isn't a day that goes by that I don't ask myself about 5 AM "How can I create value today and help fix the future?" I apologize if I sometimes skip over the details and don't adequately put thoughts into words in the process. We're part of the fat, too, I suppose, but we're offloading quickly to the kids and my son - who now has his medical and student pilot ticket - still had enough go-gettum and gumption to think a commercial pilot ticket (or air transport ticket) might hold future value. The old plane isn't entirely about me, it too, is about family and burning a little fat.

Useful Quote

Nightingale-Conant - the motivational tape outfit - sends out notes every so often on what they have as special offers, but the best part of the emails is it begins every time with a notivational quote. Today's what pretty good:

"Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death." ~Albert Einstein

Problem is that intellectual growth in finance usually comes after some good deal of money has been spent. With all the government regulations and crap, maybe we need a "spending license."

Reader's Writes

Good thinking here:

Hi George, An attorney in California, James Otto, has been researching job losses in the US and has come up with something I’ve never seen covered in the MSM or on Urban Survival – the fact that our major corporations have been systematically replacing American with foreign workers, that they’ve been using “Visas (H-1b, L-1, O-1 and TN) … to replace competent U.S. workers ….” The Visa programs allow Congress to give all this a veneer of legality, but what they’ve been doing is really illegal. As Otto’s home page article says, “The true scale of the harm is visible by understanding that in the past 20 years approximately 6,000,000 U.S. workers have been forced out of their careers and put on public welfare so that employers could replace them with foreigners. The U.S. taxpayer has picked up the tab to support [them].” I heard Otto interviewed on Deanna Spingola’s RBN radio show several weeks ago. At first, I thought his was a story I’d heard before. By the end, I concluded that Otto’s analysis goes beyond anything I’ve seen elsewhere. Most of us have focused on “the illegals,” mostly Mexicans and other Latinos taking marginal and low-paying jobs. Otto is pointing to legal immigrants imported to take jobs Americans had been using to support middle class families. One of Otto’s main points was that he cannot get his analysis anywhere on MSM, not FOX, not anywhere. Anyway, I’ve been visiting Urban Survival daily since 2002 or early 2003. US, Zero Hedge, and Google the only buttons on my Favorites Bar – and yes, I’m a subscriber.

I think I've mentioned Otto before, but his December post on how jobs haven't really disappeared, they've just be relocated toi places like India and China is definitely worth a read.

And you're right, I haven't ragged on the H1-b visas for a while - like this note from Feb. 2011:

The causes of the Second Depression we’re now entering are three-fold.

The internet facilitated a virtual invasion of America which no one talks about, except….oh…you and me and we don’t count for squat.

Imagine, if you will what would happen if 25-million Indians applied for H1B visas? Why, the RRRR (rabid right radio ranters) would bo berserk. But did they say “OMG – We’re being virtually invaded by cheap labor! Not a frigging word. They got paychecks to defend.

Thanks to zero-cost labor, what was once “valuable human capital” – some of us still have memories of a well-trained workforce – that has disappeared from corporate bookkeeping. Everyone’s disposable…me included. You included. Toss in consumer supersaturation as a bonus.

There is no purchasing-power-parity adjustment on a country-by-country basis due to business-crafted anti-work/anti-human legislation embodied in documents like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade which institutionalized the “old paradigm” in 1949 and then handed off “paradigm preservation to the World Trade Organization in 1995. Labor of participating countries had virtually no voice in the process whereas the corporate-government types had wide voice. What’s worse, when president Obama took 200+ top US businessmen to India last year, the clear objective was to bring in even more least-cost labor into the equation…

Doesn't seem like it needs too much revision here a year and some months later, does it? I'll try to mention the H1-b scamming of US companies who are looking to undercut local labor, as well as efforts to bring in illegal immigrants and make 'em legal - so as to further sink average incomes and drop America father down than we've already sunk.

WuJo, Luck, and Hustle

We should end this morning with this:

Morning George,

After reading today's "The rest of the story", about the recluse neighbor with the twin boys, I'm writing this because my experience doesn't have any "mentally quieting" and common sense ending.......I've been a reader for a long while, a Peoplemomics subscriber for a little while, and I'm the guy that wouldn't subscribe until you got PayPal.... ;>) I'm a retired public school principal and my wife is a retired elementary teacher to give you a quick reference background about our 30 years in dealing with people.

My Wujo started two years ago next month, on a first time event to become a vendor at the local monthly flea market. The real reason is I wanted a solar panel array. To fund such a project of this cost, I had been gathering collectibles, tools, and chainsaws from local garage sales. After spending March refurbishing seven chainsaws, I knew I could get more for them at the flea market than at our own garage sale. So building 4'x8' sideboards on a two wheel trailer, stuffing the trailer with solar fundraiser inventory, we left the house about 6:30 that Friday morning, for the 8 mile drive into town and a good spot at the flea market. [I like this guy's style - g]

As I pulled out of the driveway, I left my wife in her white Oldsmobile also filled with glassware and collectibles, to use her garage door closer and follow me. Now, I'm a bit stressed as I've never done this before, and the trailer tires haven't been on the highway in two years.... As I steadily head down the road, I noticed she never came into site. Traffic is light going West bound as the East bound heavy traffic is leaving the community for Metroplex jobs. I'm in a "seats down) loaded RED Expedition and pulling a well loaded two-wheel trailer covered in reflective SILVER tarp. Nonetheless, with more stress of embarrassment due to appearing like the opening of a "Beverly Hills Hillbillies" rerun, I kept going. Coming into town from the East side, there were five stoplights ( they've added one more since). I had to stop at just one, but I'm still not seeing her car in by side-view mirrors. Nearing the city limits, I move to the left lane. At the fifth and final stoplight, is a new in-town traffic loop that's been opened which makes getting to the flea market an easy thing. There, just ahead..... in the left turn lane to the loop sits my wife in her white Oldsmobile. Combined with the stress of pulling an old trailer, expecting an unknown experience as a flea market vendor, the view of her car sitting in the left turn lane, two cars AHEAD OF ME, made my head seem to spin trying to process what I'm seeing.

As we pull into the flea market grounds and park in front of our vendor space, I get out and ask her, "How in the Hell did you get ahead of me?" She says she doesn't know as I tell her I never saw her pass me, either!! I ask her a repeated set of questions, "Didn't you see me? Where did you pass me?" She keeps saying the same answers, "I never saw you and I never passed you on the highway." To this day, there hasn't been any calming or common sense answer for that jump in time....but this "event" has caused me to rethink how the world clicks and tics...

As I said, the reason this experience to ever happen was because of my quest for solar electric power. So, as months pass and we have had several garage sales of our own in 2010 and 2011, to the tune of selling between $1,500 to $3,000 over two days, I've paid cash as I go in purchasing the panels and equipment. With all the undertow and pressure of a crashing economy, and I'm seeing that I'm not getting there fast enough!! So, being a metal detectorist and watching precious metals climb, I also started checking out the jewelry at the weekly garage sales. George, you would be surprised at what is sold as "Costume Jewelry" in plastic baggies. I find 10 times the amount of jewelry at garage sales as I do in the long hours and says of metal detecting!! During the same timeframe of 23 months, beginning with finding a 14kt white gold ring among Sterling and Costume Jewelry, I collected and sent to a Dallas precious metal's refinery, three shipments of garage sale silver finds. My first batch, I had less than $250.00 in costs, but got back a check for $2,003.00!!!! As you know, a single solar power inverter is almost $2,000.

The "Luck" part of this story comes after having the experience the flea market time rift event. It opened my mind to other possible events, and I remembered the old TV show "The Amazing Kreskin". So, as I'm out buying and bargaining with the weekly ever-changing garage sale homeowners, I begin to "Think" of the price I want to pay for the collectibles and jewelry I find. I have learned that if the person has his/her mind made up about the price, I can't change it.... BUT, if they are at a "Tipping Point", I can influence their decision. I'm doing this on a weekly basis with between a 75% and 90% success rate!!! Last weekend for instance, I just pictured a number in my head or a term "Lower than..($1 or $8) said over and over in my mind and came home with baggies and a box of jewelry containing two 14kt gold lady's watches and over 60 grams of Sterling. The KEY is that the seller has to pause to make a decision. It is at that "Tipping Point" that I have my success.

Once, I was at a sale inside of an attached garage. The seller was the length of the garage away from me when I asked about them, and I was able to buy two old brass-bladed black desk fans for the "$20 each" term I mentally kept repeating. The next day, we went back, and the seller recognized me and said, "I sold those fans too cheap, didn't I?" Now, there are some garage sales that the sellers appear to need every penny they can make, and I don't/can't use this process because it just doesn't feel right. The same moral values and the same "tipping point" applies to buyers attending our own garage sales. For the dealers and general buyers, if they ask for a lower price, and it's seems too low where I have to come back with a verbal money figure, I'll picture the amount in my mind, repeating it over and over until the buyer makes a decision...

To end this "Before and After" story, and help underscore the benefits of having an open mind, I submit the old saying "The Proof is in the Pudding". It is still working. Even after selling three shipments of my gold and silver garage-sale finds, I still have, as roughly measured by grocery store scales, just over five pounds of silver jewelry left over, and also with many Pennyweights in a mix of karat grade levels of gold. Plus in these last 23 months, to the tune of $14,500, from our own garage sale profits and precious metals' sales, to pay cash for all my solar equipment and materials. Then, along the way, when I've seen sales I've cash-purchased two Outback brand GVFX-3524 inverters & two FM-80 controllers, eight L-16 six volt batters.and a forty-two panel assortment Kyocera and Kaneka solar panels, and garage sale buys of No. 6 up to larger No. 4/0 copper wire. My solar array ground mount will be made of 2x2 and 3x3 tubing and system should be operational by June.

I hope this has added to your data base, and that you'll share more of your own and your reader's experiences of "Wujo" and "Luck" .

Great minds think alike! We have two of the Outback 2524's and two FM-60's...and 16 golf cart batteries. But a way cool story of wujo, luck and hustle...something to learn for everyone in this man's report which we're pleased to be able to share.\

Monday March 19, 2012

Time for a Global Pause?

First thing out of the chute this morning is a look at some of the markets around the world where we seem to have hit a bit of turbulence on the yellow brick road, since last week was marked by the euphoria of Triple Witching and was the week when the Greek non-event was going to start squaring up.

A check of the Hang Seng shows a drop of almost one percent overnight, more than than a one percent drop was noted in India, while Europe (very early) was down about half a percent among the big players.

---

All of which leaves participants in the markets (those willing, and those not, e.g. pension fund participant) in a really difficult spot. Professional money-managers like Robin Landry, however much they see the bearish (downside) case, are now in a position of trying to discern whether this is where the bottom falls out, or, as is defined by the alternative Elliott Wave count, moves higher from here.

Near as I can recall. Elliott Wave guru Bob Prechter had also been eyeing the potential for a disastrous fall from recent heights, but like all good money managers, he had a target (called a "stop") beyond which it would be prudent to be prudent - no matter what the technical case - to abandon downside/bearish bets and return to the sidelines (or go long/bullish) no matter how distasteful.

I don't care who the market player is, they all win some and lose some - the idea being to have bigger winners than losers over time; it's just how things work. Prechter's rumored stop level (1,399 on the S&P 500 Index) was taken out by Friday's close of 1,404.17, but what was significant is that it did so on very, very thin volume.

----

I won't talk your ears off about the implications of "thin volume" except to note that on balance volume, pioneered by Woods and Vignolia as "cumulative volume" and later changed up as on-balance volume by Joe Granville, holds to the idea that even if the number of points an index goes up is the same, there's a major additional inference to come from looking at volume/how many shares are traded.

In other words, if the Dow goes up 50 points and the volume was only 500-million shares, it is much less significant than a market day where the Dow goes up the same 50 points, but there are 2.5 billion shares involved in the upward move.

The point being that the market has been going up in recent weeks, but the volume has been thin (some would say pathetic) and so we come this week to another nexus of news events where we shall see what we shall see.

But it could be time for the markets to take some time off from the Bull Run to either consolidate, or collapse, because since 2008 the problems of the world haven't changed:

Automation is still reducing jobs.
Consumer super-saturation still means initial product hype has generally run out and after a roaring period of stocking new products, we're now in "sell-through" which is far weaker than new product pipeline fill.
Young people (as we discussed in Peoplenomics this weekend) are therefore suffering higher levels of unemployment and oldsters are hanging on to their fat lifestyles and jobs, which causes a roadblock at the top of the social heap.

To be sure, times have changed a bit, but mostly it has been moving around of paper with the usual suspects making it out the side doors with their pockets stuffed while foreclosures drone on. Pick up the paper (like this one) and you're likely to find a long list of foreclosures on an almost daily basis.

(figures in thousands)

As can be seen in this Labor Department report, despite real growth in the US's population, the number of people work as of the February employment report is 369-thousand less than it was in August of 2005. Given a 293.936 million US population in 2006 and and a current population of 313.209 million we can see where we've gone from 49.43% of citizens working then to 45.36% working now.

It doesn't take a "rocket surgeon" to figure "Gee, something's not right here..." It's possible down on Wall Street, while the phat cats are counting up their loot (much of it made off pension funds), someone might want to think long and hard about the demographic implications of falling employment and rising population, since as we pointed out last week, when we back out the intergovernmental holdings (check-kiting) scheme in how the Federal debt is calculated, Spain looks like the pinnacle of conservative finance in comparison.

They only difference being, they were the global policemen (and globalistas) of the 1500's.

Police State - Or Messaging System?

A tremendous amount of buzz on the internet this weekend has centered around the Executive Order issued by president Obama after the markets closed Friday and when the "news cycle" for the PM shows was "in the can."

Even my friend Gaye over at www.backdoorsurvival.com has an article about the "Rising Tsunami of the Police State" which is definitely worth the time to read... Then there's the WorldNetDaily headline on topic: "Executive Order Panic: Martial Law in U.S.?"

Except this thought crops up: I have to wonder how much of the EO National Defense Resources Preparedness" is aimed at stifling internal dissent, and how much of it is real contingency planning and a real message to a couple of international player - Russia and China?

There are a couple of ways to read it, of course: One way would be the "OMG here is the police state..." way. I'm not discounting that completely, mind you, but I am suggesting that the administration maybe - just maybe - has realized that we've been through so much job-jacking and outsourcing here in the past 20-years that should we get into a serious conflict of some kind, how would we deal with it?

Seems to me - if I were president - I'd take the heat from people worried about a\ creeping police state if it would send a message to interlopers like China and Russia who have gained tremendous traction in the Middle East and Africa, that we are not going to quit being the world's policeman any time soon. Nor would the dollar go without a fight.

The economic fact of the matter is that a global move away from the US dollar right now would be devastating - and while it would make precious metals holders deliriously happy, we seem to recall that in similar economic depression circumstances, which also led to a world war, both gold and silver ownership was outlawed.

So whilst this is all over the place as "Police State Tactics!" a more measured read is that the administration knows that China's latest five year plan wraps up in 2015 and by 2020 they may have a suitably large middle class to consider serious adventurism outside of their immediate sphere of influence and we need fall-back manufacturing if we're to resist the economic pressures which will be brought to bear.

I don't suppose I need to point out the Kony video's release was temporally in the same ballpark? A reason to beef up AFRICOM in order to maintain for the US access to present and future central African mineral resources, and how China's current "Rare-Earth Power-Play" may have had much more to do with the contingency planning order than strictly a polishing of the jackboots.

Although that can't be entirely ruled out....we note that in a solid-state/nanotech world, rare earths are equal in importance to oil and raw firepower.

'Tater Watch

The British-born wife of Syria's president says SHE is the real dictator in that country. Bet that's not gonna play well with some...

---

Vlad Putin's, figures this BusinessWeek story, has a little problem on his hands: Regardless of how he snatched the presidency, there's now the matter of how to make good on wide-ranging economic promises...

---

Speaking of that China messaging theory of mine, you did notice how Chinese imports of foreign-made arms are dropping as their internal production capacity is coming on line?

The Weak Ahead

Futures were off only about 20 Dow points when I looked, so no big rout, at least at the open. Tomorrow we get some housing start numbers, clothespin ready for the nose on that..

About the only biggie is the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) which always makes me smile, it's a fine little anagram.

Tomorrow morning, I will run through some of the Port reports off the West Coast which is as good an economic barometer as any.

(I've been a good boy not throwing rocks at Boeing for moving some tail assembly work to Italy and Utah instead of keeping the jobs in the Pacific Northwest. WFT? I understand some of the work going to Utah, since Romney won in Puerto Rico and they would hedge their ExIm Bank use, but ITALY? My God, what are these people thinking? Can't they spell jobjack? )

Laggardly Neutrinos Dept.

I assume you have been watching the science debate on whether neutrinos actually move faster than light? New results say they don't.

Which, of course, leaves us with a perplexing problem of how all that new "entanglement at a distance" crypto gear works, but maybe the real advances in science are being dribbled out to the masses/plebes piecemeal-like so as not to upset the economic apple cart...

Think about what DARPA has been using as a keyword internally for several years: disruptive [manufacturing] technologies.

Even if we could roll out anti-gravity machines and molecular level replicators tomorrow morning down at the big box store, can't you see how that would crash the world's economy? Might be great for humans, but with a collapsed/disrupted economy, who's gonna be the police and fire departments?

Solar Storm Watch

As we mentioned last week, a note from 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl (web site) has come up with the interesting possibility of a major solar flare (X-class) over the next few days. The Solar System Scope I referenced last week may not have shown up in some browsers, for here it is again.

Now, on to Patrick's latest email explains more about what could be ahead...

Hi George,

In the months prior to the findings from dcsymbols... i was looking for triple line ups.... And they also are important in the theory of dcsymbols...

At first dcsymbols didn’t want his name mentioned because of the relation with the doomsday... So i had to act fast... I am glad he turned around...

Anyway he has found the basic thing... but he overlooked several important ones like: Triple Line Ups... They deliver the ‘Strength’ I was looking for that because they happen at the end of 2012...

And they happened also at the March 5-7 events... But now there is only 1 triple... However on April 22... There are 3!

Strength Sunstorms

1. At the end of 2012 there are 3 line ups which gives the ‘Strength’ to the solar eruption

15-17 December: Neptunus-Mars-Venus

18-19 December: Saturnus-Venus-Mercury

20-21 december: Jupiter-Earth- Venus

Why whas the flare so strong on March 7?

2 Triple line ups in the preceding days!

Earth-Mercury-Uranus

and Venus-Earth-Saturnus

March 19-21

Only 1 on the day itself!

Earth-Mercury- Uranus

April 22

3 Triple line ups!

Mars-Venus-Uranus on the day itself

On preceding days

Earth-Mercury-Uranus

Venus-Mercury-Neptunus

So this one should be very strong..! Hope that clarifies more...

- Patrick"

Sure does...now we need only sit back and see how the Sun delivers on this...noting that the line-up are sure reminiscent of James McCanney's work on the solar activity/earth weather connection, as well.

Regardless, the idea of a 189-day earthquake cycle isn't particularly appealing since it could portend a 9.0 quake this week...

Coping @ the Wujo: Science Was Winning

Every so often, the left brain come up with a major win. Remember the case we reported on last week in the WuJo section about the fellow drinking his tea only to see the same neighbor come home - twice - without having left in-between?

I suggested that there was likely a hidden variable such as a brother involved and this morning, our tea-drinker reports "Mystery Solved!"

"George,

If you will recall I had an odd happening a few mornings ago regarding my neighbor reappearing in a place he'd been a few minutes earlier. I finally took the time and went over to actually meet and talk with that "recluse" neighbor. Funny how a simply neighborly chat can clear up the most oddball mysteries!

The neighbor is not really all that much of a recluse - he's a very hard worker. Puts in long hours and travels a lot (why we don't see him around much). As for what I saw - he has a pair of twin boys in their very early 20s that are identical twins and look very much like him. I'd never seen them before because they've been attending college on the east coast since the parents moved here.

On the morning in question the brothers were awake long before dawn because of the time difference between EDT and MDT. They were aware of the great photos that can be had of the mountains as the sun rises, so a few minutes before dawn they started to walk out the front door to walk over to a pond where they could catch the mountains reflect in the water at sunrise.

As one brother opened the door, their mom's little dog scooted out and up the street. The brothers each grabbed a leash and too off after the dog. A block away they split up in case the dog decided to head off onto a joining street. One brother caught up with the dog, leashed him and walked home. The other (since he was a block away from the now captured dog) circled back to his parent's street and followed the other home - a few minutes behind.

The pair grew up suffering the indignation of a mom that dressed them identically, and that seems to have stuck with them - they tend to have a very similar taste in clothing. As a result, they bought matching black trench coats while at school.

Mystery solved. A pair of twin brothers with similar tastes in clothing chasing mom's dog. You called this one correctly!"

Unfortunately, we keep getting WuJo reports which don't fit to "neat & nice" into the solution set. Take this one, for example:

"my name is [redacted for privacy") i've read clif for only a year now and have been reading your page for mere months, but after reading your wujo reader accounts i think i may have something not sure if this counts... but what of " false memories"?

i have several from when i was a child, one involving a scenario in which if i told anyone i would "cease to exist and wander the earth as if i were not there"

this memory goes back to age (at least) 4. my sister is 3 yrs younger and remember her being there and jumping on the bed so she had mobility. anyway my mother told me that there was an entrance to hell in my grandparents closet.

i asked ALOT of questions about it after she told me about her experience finding it. like "why were you in the closet? were you playing hide and seek? she told me it was dark down there so i asked why she didnt bring a flashlight (the batteries wouldnt work) a candle?? (the wind would blow it out) the devil asked for her first born daughter. me at 4?. i kept this secret till i was 12 and i had the nerve to ask her about it and she laughed and said " no of course not!" like i was crazy!

i wonder if that was real in a certain reality or...an imaginative dream? ive felt some suppression since then but that could either be a personal problem or something that actually existed at the time then just didnt? who knows? could be the same thing right? btw as far as i know i still exist...

I love this kind of WuJo puzzle because there are so many angles to it, and steps the research can take. And I think a surprising number of people have these childhood memories of entrances to the underworld being either in a forbidden closet, or as was my own case, around the back of my father's darkroom, which was built under the stairs to the basement. I recall a particularly vivid dream where I went around the corner of the darkroom, only to find that a further stairwell had opened into some kind of subterranean realm...

Much later in life, I got that all sorted out as a kind of awareness "negotiating" that takes place between aspects of personality. Ed Steinbrecher, in his book The Inner Guide Meditation: A Spiritual Technology for the 21st Century ($12.32 Amazon, uses the visualization of entering a cave through a portal some distance inside (ahead and to the left), which later emerges into a [very] different kind of landscape where we can each meet our "inner guide" and then work directly with our archetypes to accomplish some major changes in ourselves.

So one aspect of this kind of report would be that it arises when a young child's brain/thinking/language/ and processing capabilities evolve and realize there is "another" place of mind.

There's another possibility, too, and that is it could be a genuine false-memory brought about by abuse of some kind. In either event, it was either a negotiating session between subconscious and conscious minds, or it was a coping/repression case. In either event, a good regression therapist should be able to get to the heart of the matter in no time. And, if it happens to be that it was just a "first time into the lair of subconscious" then it would not be unexpected to have artifacts surface (as a grey alien, for example) in puberty as there's some unbalancing of the archetypes, left to their own devices, in this period, just based on the little bit of reading I've done...

But even asking the question ("Is this recall tied to an adult of the time?") or trying a guided meditation, may help to resolve the source of the memory.

(This is not medical or psychological advice, just an couple of approaches to be considered. If you are not comfortable, a psychologist or hypnotherapist may be a very good friend to have along for the adventure...)

---

Tomorrow, more wujo with a two-hour time warp report....

Reader's Writes #1

Loved this:

I read your post for Friday stoned and nothing has made any more sense. What a great job you do George of stretching my imagination. Others I am sure have had the same revelations reading your work sometimes. Ever thought of trying to be the next Stanly Kubrick? you should, you know.. I would like to preorder the first copy, signed of course. keep thinking George.

One reader sent me a note - which I can't find at the moment - but mentioning that a similar thought had already been done as a scifi book - Kubrick I ain't.

Reader's Write's #2

Say, this is a dandy: Remember a while back we were talking about people waking up to the sound of their name being called? Seems to be happening in the waking state, too now...

"Place: Jean Talon Market, Montreal Quebec, approx 1PM.

Incident: My wife and I were touring this indoor farmers market. Most of the shoppers and personnel were Quebecois francophones.

I heard a voice with a standard North American English accent say my first name "Joel". the perception was from about five feet away, only from my left ear. No one was there. I never thought it would happen to me. "

Yup...kinda freaky when it does...

Best for Last: A Peoplenomics Happy Ending

If you're not a Peoplenomics subscriber, you may not remember that over the past couple of weeks we have applied the microscope to the whole field of "luck" trying to figure out what it is...beyond a reasonable set of statistical variations. And, as the second article in the series, I posted very specific actions I took prior to going to a casino and walking out a winner recently up at Firelake Casino in Shawnee, Oklahoma where the Ure's did some "field research" accompanied by the Landry's.

Bottom line: I came up with some specific actions to try in advance of and as part of the gambling process. Here's one Peoplenomics' subscriber's report on how it worked out:

"Hi George,

One of my employees was wanting Friday and Saturday off as vacation days. I asked him what he was doing? It was his birthday and he was going to the casino.

I printed off your technique and gave it to him.

He called me yesterday. Was up $3500 and cashed out with $2600. He said he followed your advice. He was laughing.

Thanks, I can’t wait to try it.

It is just sound investing advice that applies to everything. I appreciate everything you have taught me over the last 3 years. Enjoy your Sunday..."

We did, thanks...and now those immortal words of the Mad Hatter are creeping up on me again for the first time this week: "No time to lose, no time to wait, I'm late, I'm late, I'm late..." And, one of the more interesting things on the agenda is even more research into gambling since on the way to the National Association of Newspaper Columnists convention in Macon in May, we have to fly over some casinos in Mississippi...

Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.

Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)

Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"

George Ure, The People's Economist

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