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"Big Events" Watch/ Jobs Up - sort of

(Palestine, TX) We have several candidates for "big events" which, if you've been following the www.halfpasthuman.com Shapes of Things to Come reports (new one due out shortly) includes release language December 2-8 plus or minus a couple of days.

 

We have some interesting candidates, too:  Winds, nukes, and markets.

 

Starting with the major winds part, our return to Texas from the West Coast/California couldn't have been better timed.  Winds clocked as high as 123-miles per hour were recorded in Colorado on Thursday and in SoCal there was a rash of power outages, downed trees, and the usual mayhem that accompanies Ma Nature reasserting her dominance.

 

As this Wikipedia entry shows, the Santa Anna Winds in SoCal are usually caused by a big high pressure over the southern moutains inland.

 

A check of national pressure map (here) leaves open to some debate whether these were really Santa Anna's, or something else.   It's small nit if you're worried about debris clean up this morning.

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My consigliore called first thing back in the office on Thursday to point out that tomorrow is a key spiral calendar harmonic off the Hiroshima event in Japan in WW II.  He even posted some comments on a GLP posting on point, if that's not outing his Old Trader moniker.

 

What's not in the post is that the Cuban Missile Crisis came on a spiral calendar harmonic date, as did the world's least publicized near-brush with nuclear war in the early 1970's.

 

Most schools don't teach that the then Soviet Union was about to use nukes to take out the Chinese Lop Nor nuclear weapons development site in order to keep China out of the nuclear club.  Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger told the Soviets that any attack on China would be considered an attack on the US and things got really, really, really tense in background.

 

Then later, Nixon et al, were "rewarded" by the Chinese and invited to come to China which led to our use of Chinese goods in almost unbelievable quantities today.  Nice econ payoff, don'tcha think?

 

Then we have the most boring stuff, perhaps, of all, including economic data which brings us to the Jobs Report just out from the Labor Department:

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.

Household Survey Data

In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent. From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount.

This is pretty much in keeping with what I told you about seasonal workers being hired, and the broader measure, labor underutilization improved, but seasonally adjusted only from 16.5% to 16.2%.

 

More important is than the workforce number was used for the statistical sleight of hand here:  The report detail here shows the labor force shrank by 315-thousand last month.  And if you buy that, I have this bridge...  think GIGO.

 

So, between the CES Birth-Death Model estimating 100-thousand new jobs into existence last month and whacking more than 300k workers off the count, you're asked to believe that things improved last month.

 

If 315-thousand people just "disappeared" there'd be the FBI and DHS all over the place, and probably fund-raising concerts with rock star spokespersons...but not so with job "statistics" in the year prior to an election, huh?

 

But like an old b-school prof told me "It isn't lies, it's a statistical inference."

 

Still, On to 12,400?

Robin Landry's latest note to colleagues in the investment world sums up where we seem to be trading-wise:

"The market rally on Monday was thought to be a small wave 4, but the big opening today (Thu. - g)  now makes the alternate count the primary one.

 

That count says the low on Friday 11/25/11 was wave b of Intermediate 2 and now we are in c of intermediate 2. Once this rally is done then we turn down in Intermediate 3 of Primary 3 down. There is a more aggressive negative count possible, but it is my alternate count due to the seasonal bias in favor of the upside.

 

That count says the current rally is a small minor wave 2 and we turn down in a few days. We have hit the first resistance point already and one of my indicators says a change in direction is likely. We shall see. For this count to be valid we need to turn down in this area of a .782 retracement of the decline from 11/15/11 to the low on Friday 11/25/11.

 

This area is also a resistance point formed by the trend line shown on the attached 60 min chart of the Dow. I have been saying ,in conversations with clients, that I have always felt intermediate wave 2 needed more time to develop and the likely time for it to end was in early to mid December or early January 2012.

 

I still feel that way. Either way, this rally is doomed to fail and the next decline will see the market hit new lows below the 10/4/11 low IMHO. I will update as soon as wave count clears up more

So, yes, I am still short since I like the return on a potential 3,000 point slide before January is out much better than a 400-point upside.  I'm just that way, I suppose.

 

'Russian Election Watch

To be sure, there are some who will find the report of an independent election watchdog group being investigated prior to elections is a bit odd.

 

No stranger than events in Florida a few years back, as we see it.

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Still, from a long wave econ perspective, periodic Depressions seem to end in wars and though we've got a number of mini-wars/wars lite going on, nothing like the kind that wipe out humans and leave 50-years of recovery to be addressed.

 

Which is why what happens in Russia is so important:  They're looking to increase defense efforts.  Recognize, if you will, that defense is a euphemism for killing efforts, it's just ever so much more polite than calling 'em Death Departments.

 

Detroit's Long Post Mortem

Don't know if you've been reading this site long, but I dedicated most of a Peoplenomics report (#513-B of June 26,2011, available to subscribers only) to the future of Detroit which is a dandy canary in the economic coal mine.

 

Mentioned why?  Well seems like up in canary-land, Detroit is considering a city lottery to help make ends meet.  Who said living in Detroit is a gamble?

 

6,000 Volts

GM is hinting to the Associated Press that a buy-back of Chevy Volt electric cars may be in the offing as a way to build brand confidence since there've been three fires involving the electric cars.

 

Problem for GM is the source of the fires hasn't been determined yet, though Nissan's Leaf hasn't had any similar problems according to its manufacturer.

 

Junk Mail Wars

You ever have one of those days where junk mail just seems to pour in and keeps you from getting real work done?

 

Pay attention to what Europe's largest IT company is doing:  Atos is banning employee email!

 

The Atlantic has a detailed look here.

 

Don't mind me mentioning this - I'm the Luddite who thinks 99.9% of social media is a waste of time, too.

 

More after this.....

 

 

Coping: Halfway Round America: Home Again

(Palestine, TX)  After fully two weeks on the road, I'm finally back in my comfortable chair, with Zeus the Cat (and night auditor) looking for the occasional (!) typo which may, now and then, find its way into this column. 

 

A quick $200 trip to the store has resupplied the homestead, since my retired .mil bro in law has, ever since SF school, been able to eat anything including dog biscuits which he maintains are healthy and got him through when lesser men were dropping out of extreme training due to fatigue, which may explain why the cupboards were a bit bare.

 

I've made a note to have the vet, Dr. hart in town, maybe look after my brother-in-law's health, since vets are less spendy than medical doctors, and the basic systems are the same.  The brother-in-law has clean teeth and doesn't seem to have fleas, for which we count our blessings and more seriously wonder about Milk Bone Dog Biscuits as a survival food.

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The trip to the grocery store was a pleasant experience, since people in this part of the world still smile at one another, and when someone says "How are you today?" instead of the perfunctory "Fine and you?" folks actually stop, tell you, smile and listen through pretty much whatever you feel like unloading up to about three minutes worth.

 

It's not like a big city where 99.9% of people skip the "Howyah doing?" and frankly don't care.  The Earth, turns out, doesn't revolve around the Sun.  It revolves around them.

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If you're looking for an economic indicator, or perhaps a sense of how "real" people have gotten, a grocery store makes as good a research lab as any, plus it doesn't come with four years of tuition and a lifetime of student loans. 

 

As a bonus benefit, no curriculum committees, $200-textbooks, and no exams, parking permits, or any of that crap. 

 

Grocery store learning is simply a pass/fail school of your own making and if you choose to try and brighten someone's day with a smile, odds are far better in the outback that the effort will be returned 10-fold instead of the big city average which my most recent research shows to be about one in a thirty.

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Our flying adventure departure from Stephenville, TX was notable:  I've never had a Mickey-D's breakfast whatever-it-was that had a sausage patty, egg, and what seems like a sweet muffin of some kind around it, so I was pleased as we sat at the airport that Elaine found a junk food machine and some "Fried Potato Skins."  We always carry a few bags of beef jerky in the plane and it made for a better breakfast.  I've never been a "sweets and meats" kind of eater.

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Back when I was a kid, and one of my favorite aunts (the first female CPA in the state of Alaska) sent us books about the state and I became fascinated with bush pilot stories.

 

Don't know if you have ever had time to read in the field, but when I was in the life-dream formative years, my dad had received several bush pilot books from his sister, and maybe that's where my flying dreams are grounded. B. F. Skinner was spot on about environments make behaviors.

 

Stories about taking off from Lake Hood - just three miles from downtown Anchorage and the world's busiest seaplane base - were burned in young.

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The planes in use back then ranged from the small, two-place Piper Cubs to larger Cessnas which were found on oversized wheels, skis, or floats - depending on season, of course. 

 

The debate over which plane is best continues on today at sites like Bush Planes.com, though I've always figured it's like arguing whether the best spouse is a blonde, brunette, or redhead:  Depends on model.

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Bush pilot exploits - flying in nearly impossible conditions - made for fine reading for a young man who - while interested in electronics and radio gear - nevertheless liked the sound of the adventure and community respect that seemed to go with being a bush pilot.

 

Everything from medical emergency flights, to resupplying the various hunters, miners, and explorers who roamed Alaska's outback, before globe encircling satellite systems, and even flying around oddities like batches of sourdough starter, during fair weather to worse, got me to thinking that some day I'd have to do some of this serious flying stuff, which sounded most interesting when the weather was marginal.

 

Seems something about marginal weather builds flying character, is what I'd deduced.

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When I first got to flying in the early 1970's I didn't have far to go to find challenging weather. 

 

Learning to fly at Boeing Field in Seattle, especially during winter, was as good as any trip up North, but without the full measure of cold, though a rainy 40 degrees in Seattle is near enough  40 degrees and rain in Anchorage as I'd already experienced working on a defense project up there.

 

Something about flying, with clouds only a few feet over your head, and the ground being close enough to at least see license plates on cars (with binoculars if you wanted to read them) is a special kind of flying.

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Most of our trip was done in perfectly clear weather with the friendly air traffic control centers offering hints along the way.

 

"Musketeer 12-Lima are you aware of the terrain over your intended route today?" asked an Albuquerque Center controller, on our way back.

 

"Like this big mountain off my left wing?  Got it in sight, thanks, 12-Lima."

 

The controller was right for calling our attention to it:  Guadalupe Peak east of El Paso shows 8,750 feet on the sectional chart, but when you're flying at 7,500 feet, it towers over you.

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So there we were Thursday morning in Stephenville,  breakfasting on beef jerky and plastic chips looking at the automated weather system for what seemed like hours.  Overcast, 700 foot ceiling, winds 160 degrees at 10 gusting 16.  180-degrees being south.

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To kill time, I taxied around to fuel; although it only took about 14-gallons worth.  And then I called the Lockheed-Martin flight briefers to confirm, for the 4th  or 5th time that yes, Stephenville was still the only place within 400 miles which was down at instrument conditions.  Satellite imagery though suggested that around 11 AM conditions would improve enough to be flyable to the east.  "Pass the beef jerky, dear?"

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About 11:30, we finally got our improved weather:  As the dew point and temperature finally began to spread out, so the ceiling lifted quickly to 1,600 feet, and we were off. 

 

Forward visibility was up and down, but by picking the best forward visibility and flying toward the bright spots in the overcast, while always keeping an alternate landing spot in view, we picked our way east toward Hillsboro, and then on to Corsicana.

 

The turbulence from being in a cold air mass while the rest of the region was warm and smooth wasn't bad, just enough to make the altimeter go up and down a hundred feet, or so.  Elaine seemed unfazed, and fortified with junk food, wasn't even looking green yet.  Teaching her to keep eyes on the horizon while sailing worked in planes, too.

 

A smaller plane, like a Cessna 150 or a J-3 would probably have been a little different story.  While the larger Beech was bouncing maybe 10 degrees  to one side or another, the smaller planes, with less wing area to average out the bumps, would have likely been rolling 15 to 20 degrees.

 

At long last we broke out from under the gray air near Corsicana  and climbed to a glassy smooth 3,500 feet in sunshine and perfect visibility for the remaining 40-miles of the trip. 

 

A one-bouncer landing at KPSN and it was over.

 

Kind of funny, too. About 2,000 miles of hand-flying an old (but extremely dependable) Beech Mouse having "greased it on" everywhere including in 35 knots gusts as Palm Springs and I bounced the last landing of the trip.  Almost poetic.

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Not sure if I have flying out of my system, yet.  We have penciled in plans for several more trips - Shreveport to look at casino life, Shawnee to meet with Robin Landry and talk long wave economic trends, and maybe down to New Orleans, just because it's there.

 

But what made the trip home worthwhile was to do a bit of latter day "scud running" - the scud being the lower lying puffs of clouds blowing about under the overcast ceiling.

 

Damon Darley, who was one of my earlier flight instructors, had taught me well flying in rain and crappy conditions in the Northwest.  Not quite bush flying - but the last I heard about Darley (must have been 1974) he'd gone up to Nome, or some such, and was building real bush pilot turbine time to move up to the scheduled commercial ranks.

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Still, the worst conditions I'd ever flown in, back in the early 1970's, was driving rain, 1,000 foot ceiling (at least that's what I'll write) and looking for a white water tower with 2-miles (if that) visibility south of Paine Field at Everett, Washington.  Thursday was a walk in the park on a sunny day in comparison.

 

It seemed crazy at the time, but Dan Skarperud, chief pilot of Hangar One at Boeing back in the day, knew exactly what he was doing putting me in absolutely crappy conditions and very dark gray and rain to work with. 

 

Tens of thousands of hours of flying, instrument and almost anything else you could think of in the way of ratings (including gyro copters), Skarperud ("Skarp") had never lost a student, and was one of those rare people who not only was a character, but could teach it to someone lacking it.

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Lessons relearned on the trip?  Sure. More important though is an old lesson, relearned in my 60's.

 

There's a reason humans go flying, skydiving, scuba diving, car racing, extreme motocross, or any other sport where there's imminent danger or, at worst, death close at hand.

 

Looking Death bang in the eye and say "I cheated you again, Death" makes daily living all the more intense for people addicted to life on the edge.

 

Even though at any time, we all know there's a deep secret down inside unspoken among adventurers: 

 

Death will be back, and all too soon.  But, not just yet...so we live today like there's no other.   

 

But some day, just not this one, Death will be back for us.

 

 

Write when you break even: george@ure.net

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Got Stored Food?  Are You a Terrorist?

(Tucson, AZ)  Several amazing stories to get into this morning, including the revelation that having more than seven days of food in your home my make you a terror suspect.  Then we have the daily flip on the fortunes or Euro to contend with.  But the long term perspective of greatest import is "When is it time to get back into real estate investing?"  Dandy line up starting with...

 

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Broad Bush of the Future

(Tacoma, WA.)  Although short-term the fate of humans looks pretty grim, our meeting with Clif of www.halfpasthuman.com this week had a number of surprises not the least of which is an expected "turn of things for the better" in a few years.  But, between now and then, lots of crap to wade through.  What's more, while we await the release of the pending web bot run, there's a curious correspondence developing in our flow of emails which we'll highlight in part this morning as we review big news of items of the week...

 

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Taming Cookies

Computer cookies have a purpose in life - they facilitate things like online banking and stock trading.  But there's a vicious side to them:  They can be used to track your web use without you even knowing about it.  And even more dangerous are the 'cross site' cookies which can install malware on your computer without you ever knowing it.

 

The answer?  Maxa Cookie Manager, MCM.

 

Take it for a free test drive by clicking here - and it you like it, activation is easily done. If you're a heavy web user (who ain't?) you may find like I do that you've accumulating a hundred or more cookies per day.  Only a handful need to be white-listed, like your brokerage account or your bank.  The rest?  Software designed to spy on you that robs you of computer performance.   Been using it for several years and pleased as the Dickens with it.

 

The "Do Drop Inn"

Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com.  And remember our saying at MyGroPonics:  It's OK to be a vegetable... 

 

Strange Dreams?

Post your weird dreams to help our research along into what goes on at night in people's heads: www.nationaldreamcenter.com

 

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

Pass It On

Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email.  - Thanks!

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Last week's report is always here.

 

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Thursday  December 1, 2011 07:55 AM CT

Never Bet Against the Fed

(Stephenville, TX)  Every once in a while they actually do something - and it's not the first time that I have had a good position - and prospects of making a dime, burned to ashes by a "surprise" Fed action.  We'll start with the news release which is all about "release language" as in releasing what amounts to "free(er) money for the bankster class:"

 

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.

 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

 

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

 

Federal Reserve Actions

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

 

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

 

OK, lots of words, but what does it mean?  Simple:  The world is going to have a major inflation - and this should do marvelous things for gold and silver, which were up nicely when the news of this came out. 

 

The reason is pretty simple:  In banksterese the world "liquidity" means (simply) making more money available.  You can do this with cheap central bank rates, nearly like printing money.  And curiously, at a macro economic level I don't have any beef with the central banker crowd doing this since keeping money "loose" is the one thing that may prevent the economy from cratering, maybe even "de-cratering" a bit.

 

A simple economic thought experiment:  Coffee-up which we put on our thinking caps.

 

Pretend, if you will, that four of us are standing in a circle.  You, me, and a Chinese dude, and a vagrant.

 

Between us we have $10 each for a money in circulation of $40.  One of us, however has debts due (like right now) that are $11.  Let's call the vagrant dude "Europe."

 

Suppose we agree, amongst ourselves to print up (or make-up out of thin air) another $20 each? 

 

Our relative financial position would be unchanged between the four of us, since we'd still have the same ratio of wealth.  So the only person who would get screwed would be the debt-holder who was thinking they would get $11 of "old money" when it would be the equivalent of one entire participant/country's wealth.

 

Poof.  With another $20 spot, the bond holder gets one third back in purchasing power.  Ask any Greek bondholder for details.

 

What happens in the end (and care to guess whose end?) is that each of the four players goes from having $10 to now $30,  the debt-holder gets screwed on a purchasing power basis, the public, seeing inflation in the wings starts pricing albatross housing prices up, and gold and silver ought to soar.

 

Oh...and that vagrant collections of countries which had the $11 debt? 

 

We'll make them some side loans so they can still run with the others three of us.

 

Now, if you remember a couple of days back, Moody's was threatening to downgrade European vagrant country debt, but since this the magic wand of liquidity has come out, no telling how this will play.  (I try keep my magic wand in my pants, which is why I'm not a banker, if you follow my drift.)

 

Ain't being a master of finance fun?

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Big moves like this do not come without at least some warning.  One reader, who accused me of not following the London Interbank Overnight Rate (LIBOR) closely sent me a note to look at the chart here.

 

What LIBOR may be saying it that the end of "useful deflation" may have arrived, or is out there somewhere, and if it has, we will be getting back into the "useful inflation" world in coming months, which might mean we're close to a bottom in housing prices now, but more on that this weekend, since that requires more inspection before loading up on a slug of rental homes which are a can of worms in their own right.

 

Still, it will be a week or so before how all this ripples toward solving the world's financial problems becomes clear, and in the meantime, we'll be looking at coincident indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index, which is not quite dead and the price of oil which, in case you haven't noticed, is back into the realm where Middle East money-sharing governments can continue buying happiness in their respective kingdoms, and the major oil booms underway in America may continue.  More on this in today's Coping Section.

 

So What's the Big Picture?
This may take a little more than one cuppa coffee in a strange motel room at oh-dark-thirty, but the long wave economic perspective goes something like this:

• The whole world has been in a long wave economic decline since the markets peaked (on an inflation-adjusted, purchasing power basis) in 2000.

• The downside accelerated in 2008 with the collapse of housing prices, and as I explained in the Peoplenomics report for subscribers yesterday,  we may have one more (equally large, or greater) decline left to play out.

• Meantime, the Fed is not ignorant of such things and they have been deliberately keeping M1 and M2 money creation rates high - since falling liquidity makes money more dear - another way of saying tight money makes Cash King in a Depression.  They're trying to create dough out of thin air fast enough to offset incipient deflation.  Without this easy money policy (in terms of M1/M2) the Depression would be more obvious and much more painful than it already is.  There's a reason Greenspan decided to hide m3 from the public, although Trader Bart's work (M3 Reconstructed) here is a touchstone of economic reality in today's world.

• Public policy has been perversely blessed by terrorism - to the point where an objective economic observe (Ure's truly) might publicly wonder if it's not just a little too convenient.

  • The War on Terror has been a massive engine of employment.

    • Several wars have been created from it (Iraq/Afghanistan) Worth: Trillions

    • Domestic employment has been spurred not only by hiring of TSA, the reorganization of centralized power in DHS and so forth. Worth: uncounted billions...and over a 30-year period?

    • Easily modulated by a balanced public opinion where the right is very pro-war and the left anti-war.

    • Defense spending has continued very high.

  • The War on Terror has also been very good from a PR standpoint:

    • Has served to keep America "manageable" by creating an external enemy.

    • Has been a tool for monetary expansion.

    • Provides a convenient methodology to control dissent, witness the vote this week on detention of American citizens on American soil if they are deemed "enemy combatants" which as Senator Rand Paul pointed out this week may be determined by something as trivial as having more than one week's worth of food on hand in your home or being a prepper.  Gold owners, too.

  • With the War on Terror and related resource wars creating the equivalent of the last Depression's Civilian Conservation Corps and Works Progress Administration, the financial sector has been saved from necessary restructuring by numerous bailouts including the secret ones which were "tipped" to key insiders - such as Hank Paulson's tip-off on Fannie/Freddie bailing -  ostensibly without violating law.

• Due to the large amount of money available systemically, although bank failures at branch level have long ago surpassed six-thousand branches, the public impact has so far been minimized.

  • In the 1930's event, bank losses were felt immediately by depositors.

  • In the 2000's event, the available FDIC funding plus shot-gun acquisition/banking consolidation strategy has resulted in a slow-motion decline which will be played out over years.  Frogs slowly boiled is....us!

With these "big picture" blocks in place, and understanding how money creation will be used to "work-around" the EU crisis, what looms next on the horizon should be secular inflation in things like food prices, while real estate may languish longer.

 

Prisoner in America

Although he has stated opposition to detaining American Citizens on US soil, a showdown this week with the White House seems unlikely to materialize. 

 

My thinking on this is pie-simple:  Incumbent Obama is already saying he will need a second term to finish his job in Washington.

 

An upcoming presidential visit to New York already has Occupy supporters mobilizing amidst claims the president has become a "corporate puppet."

 

As usual, thinking economics first, and following the money, we can see how Obama is being cornered into supporting the corporate-government agenda.  So if Obama rolls over on the detaining American servilians on the on Free soil of America, don't be shocked.  O's got a delicate balance between rhetoric and job security to work.

 

The Newter is making big progress in polls since our fellow (fluoride laced) Americans seem to have forgotten how Newt was disgraced out of his Speaker of the House gig.  And to recent claims that he was a "lifetime politician" he's claiming to be a "lifetime citizen" - something Obama has done with some success, too. LOL!   Universe does such sly little synch-winks - hard to keep up with the comedy/parody of it all.

 

The corpgov MainStreamMedia, meantime, continues a virtual blackout of Ron Paul's logical Libertarian approach, since the corpgov loves the existing duopoly where the two "captive/co-opted" parties all feed at the same trough, which is wildly convenient for the DC law-firms that pass through the graft/slop, such that we don't elect "best leaders" any more, we elect  (if a $20-billion media campaign is what you call elections) "best fundraisers" and corpmedia sock puppets.

 

As I was reading the Washington Post Fact Check column this morning about the various errors on the Newter and Rick Perry, it occurred to me that the republicorps don't need more candidates, they just need ginkgo biloba.  I've been trying to remember to pick some up, myself.

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That Ron Paul remembers the Newter as a serial hypocrite we're hearing of thanks to the (vestigial?) journalistic integrity of ABC.  But not as lead prime-time material...  Oh, and already some conspiracy-leaning sites are predicting a sad ending to Ron Paul himself because questioning the paradigm brings with it, er, certain health risks.  Do I take such articles are credible?  No.  But we DO file them away as worth keeping track of.

 

So that's how this morning's macroecon picture stacks up in easy-to-follow overview form.

 

Employment Data Point

While we sit on the edge of our chairs awaiting a slightly improved Employment situation report tomorrow, the weekly figures are just out:

 

In the week ending November 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 402,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 396,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 395,250.

 

No, it's not too difficult to show an improvement in the economy at this time of the year - just a matter of how many of those temporary seasonal clerks you want to count.  Oh, and how to write them out of the workforce numbers in January when their jobs disappear....

 

Coping: America's Quiet Oil Boom

(Stephenville, TX) We almost made in home to Palestine, TX last night, but after taking off from Tucson, AZ, landing in Las Cruces, NM for fuel and again in Big Spring, TX, it was getting too late to shoot an approach, even to a well-known home field in the dark.  Not that a night landing it a particularly hard thing  in a small single engine plane, but the last bit of light is known to bring out things like deer onto the field and hunters and all the rest.  Sometimes, it's better to spend the $100-bucks for a motel in a small town (Stephenville) and call it good.  I should be back in the office at the ranch by noon.

 

About here, you might be asking "Why Stephenville?" 

 

Well, besides 667 nautical miles of flying after getting up in the middle of the night to write up Peoplenomics (details below) - about 768 statute miles - we really had planned to stay somewhere else. 

 

First place I tried was the Best Western/Swiss Chalet in Pecos, TX.  But no rooms - totally sold out.  And again, when I asked, yes, it was due to all the oil work in the area.

 

As we flew into Pecos from the El Paso area, there were oil drilling operations all over the place.  Near little patches from the air, some with mud ponds, others with out.  So where just being cleared while others had already been drilled and pumps installed.

 

But calling ahead, we thought maybe Odessa-Midland would be good.  After all, that's the older development in the Permian Basin.  Yes, we could have gotten into a hotel (older part of the hotel, oil style rooms) but the one of interest was full of mostly oil workers....and being a low-key strategic thinker type, I figured going with a good looking wife to a hotel full of roughnecks, roustabouts, mudmen, and monkeyboard refugees known for prodigious partying skills, and so forth, was a  something to be missed. 

 

So on we flew thinking we might make home by dark, but as the sun was setting and we were still 150 miles out, I figured it was time to set down and Stephenville was close at hand.  Hadn't eaten since breakfast in Tucson and water and beef jerky didn't seem to appetizing.

---

The motel we picked  wasn't our first choice, but like many small towns, there's no cab company in Stephenville.  If you're looking for a simple business?  Consider setting up a cab company in a small town.  All it takes is a cell phone, working car or van, and insurance and gas money.  Plus whatever the regulatory costs are.

 

No, it won't make you rich, but I'd wager that in a town over a certain size a local cab company makes sense.  I think the population size of 30,000, or so, is about it.  Shawnee, OK has a cab company when we go up to visit the Landrys, but Stephenville doesn't at 18,000 or so.  Anyway, something to think about.

---

Wednesday was the first time I have ever been asked for my pilot's license and current medical.  So nice folks from DEA were doing an airport spot check at one of our refueling stops.

 

No problems, since I'm a stickler for paperwork, and they were really nice folks.

 

Legal compliance in general aviation is extremely high from what I've been able to gather.  Not sure what would have happened if my medical was out of date, but current license, logs, and medical are no-go items, just like no altimeter in a type certified aircraft.

 

But I did learn one thing I've been wondering about for a couple of years:  Turns out the reason pilot's licenses do not have a picture of the pilot on them is that they are lifetime documents, explained the DEA rep.  The face would change over time...

 

Hmmm...still, in the interest of improved security I wouldn't mind a 5 or 10-year passport type picture on mine.  But, no one asked me...  My bank has my picture on my credit card, so I still think it would be useful for law enforcement people in the field.

---

Dinner at an Italian joint - which was obviously popular with the locals - was really good.  And since it was cold and windy as the sun set and we got the bags out of the plane, the Minestrone soup first course really hit the spot.  We slept like logs, as a result.

---

One thing curious - as pointed out by Elaine - was a group at the next table where one of the women at the table was explaining the virtues of living alone, complete with a description of where she lived.

 

"Maybe in a small town, that's not dangerous," said E, "But seems to me that's not the kind of information to be casually talking about in public."

 

People don't seem to think that kind of thing through, I had to admit.  Even more so today with Blue Tooth.  Years ago, a person walking down the street talking to themselves would have been branded insane, and folks would cross the street to avoid them.

 

But not any more.  Seems those "crazy people" of 40-years ago who were talking to themselves were simply ahead of their time.

 

---

Tuesday November 29, 2011

Passing Out Stars

(Palm Springs, CA)  Since we're in a hurry to get out of town this morning I'm going to simply pass our "stars" which seems a way to quickly cover a lot of ground.

 

For example, although I don't agree with his views often,  CNBC's Jim Cramer says the financial world is at DEFCON Three with mere days to avoid a financial disaster so big it's hard to get your head around.

 

A green star to the consumers in Europe who have allowed their confidence to fall to a two-year low.  They could have gotten a gold star, but they'll have to settle for green since what's justified is falling to an all-time lower and moving under a rock.

 

The Financial Times gets a red star for figuring out the end really could be days away.  I suppose the growing impact of labor strikes in the country may have something to do with their coming to this.

 

No stars, and in fact how about a half-day with a dunce cap for Polish foreign minister Sikorski who says Germany must act to save Europe.  While he's wearing it, I'd recommend remedial history lessons:  WW I and WW II suggest even to a cretin like Ure's truly that no one tells Germany much of anything.

 

Meantime, the UK outlook has dimmed in a report out this morning.

Silver star for ratings outfit Fitch which has soured on the US outlook.

 

Gold one for MSNBC for their piece on how people - hungry and waiting for food stamps to hit their accounts - give Wal-Mart a huge first of the month bounce.

 

Sometimes getting the market right is a pain in the you-know-what.  Especially when passing stars...

 

Personal Finance Notes

No telling why Ure's Semi-Constant keeps point to a major decline in markets in here, especially given yesterday's rally on over-done hopes for a big Christmas season.  A reality check later on today when the S&P Housing numbers come out along with consumer confidence.  We'll have some comment on both in tomorrow's Peoplenomics.com report.

 

Lessons in Government

I see where Kuwait's parliament has been suspended under a new government is formed.  Gee, we should do that here...cut down on a lot of paperwork and nonsense out of Washington.

 

Quality Versus Quantity

I see where the NY Daily news is reporting that WiFi may damage sperm quality.  With the  number of porn sites about, I was surprised that they didn't also look into how WiFi may reduce quantities...

 

Hot Cars

GM is reported trying to comfort new Chevy Volt electric car buyers after a couple of battery related fires.

 

Presidential Sillitics

Herman Cain is under the microscope for a purported 13-year affair.

 

Forbes meantime is outing the financial details of "Newt's $100-million Gingrich Industrial Complex."  I would have never guessed being a disgraced House Speaker would have been so profitable.  Highly original ideas, too, like one client that paid a reported  $150k to the G-Man for saying the client should  build a website, lol.

 

Another One Bites the Dust

American Airlines has filed for bankruptcy protection.

 

March to War

That's March as in 2012, not march like in band.  US carrier group is headed to the Syria area...where the Russians are also planning an appearance.

---

Say, that's some photo work in the WaPo today showing a satellite picture of a destroyed Iranian missile site.  Accidental, of course.

 

Coping:  Halfway 'Round America Homeward

(Palm Springs, CA) Assuming we haven't had rain accumulate in our fuel tanks, the tires haven't lost air, the oil's good, and all the other things that go into the checklist that makes up an aircraft pre-flight, Elaine and I will be heading back toward Texas from Palm Springs this morning.,

 

Our flight on Alaska Airlines down from Seattle was mostly uneventful.  I say mostly because we seem to inevitably draw the same seating area as young families traveling with children.

 

Not that children shouldn't travel with their parents, mind you.  But they should be properly bound and gagged first.  It's one of those situations that calls out for tremendous intervention of the drug industry:  Isn't there some way to disable the vocal cords and cause temporary paralysis of legs?

 

The ear piercing screams were terrible.  The more of less constant kicking of the back of the seat insufferable.  And our alternatives, short of moving to the cockpit - which is frowned on for security reasons - were unavailable although I considered locking myself in the restroom or shoving myself into an overhead bin, just to escape the sounds of an animal being slaughtered live which came from the kids.

 

In passing, I even considered a couple of strong cocktails, but thought better of it when I realized that with a few pops onboard, I might indelicately point out to the parents how these children were the poster kids for birth control.

 

So instead, being a good, warm, human, I simply suffered through it after sketching out several patentable solutions, including a drop-down nitrous oxide system which travel parents could apply.

 

Whoever wrote "Children should be seen and not heard" was right.  They should also not be felt kicking the rear of my chair, either.  Perhaps that's why we have an old beater of an airplane.  If something starts kicking the back of my seat today, it'll be that gremlin on the wing from a Twilight Zone episode.

===

When we got to the hotel, I thought something was amiss.  A woman was checking in who had a dog with her.  Fine thing, except the dog didn't take to me and threatened to yap my ears off, which was less than pleasing.

 

I must be getting curmudgeonly"  Dogs and children both hit my hot buttons Monday.

 

Turns out this hotel outfit is "pet friendly" and while I won't says which chain (starts with an H...)  They even go so far as to sell a special kind of dog food for guest pooches.  The food promises to be "real unprocessed food that you'll recognize when you see it."

 

People may be starving in America and living under overpasses, but this offensive little pooch will at least recognize his food, even if the thousands that dumpster dive don't.

 

No wonder we're so proud of America:  Sharing our keen sense of idealism with bases in a hundred countries on our "like it or else" basis sure makes sense, doesn't it?

 

The Future of Music

Yesterday I was going on about how computers could flatten the music industry...but that may not be how things work out as this reader email explains:

 

Hi, George, Griff here.

 

I am the composer of a new project for Rayelan Allan at Rumor Mill News. Two of my compositions are up on the left side of the RMN reading room. They are "When the Starships Fly" and "The Theme for the Obergon Chronicles".  I have been playing professionally since 1964. Almost 50 years. You may remember I had an airline career with Northwest during that time as well.    Anyway, here's what's wrong with the music industry as Griff sees it.   

 

1. Napster caused the downfall of the music industry by letting people believe they didn't have to pay to listen to music. The value of being a musician has been trivialized by the web to a large extent. The rub is this. Everyone works at something and needs/desires to be paid for the work they do. Learning an instrument requires an investment in time. And it doesn't stop there. I am a multi-instrumentalist and every piece of music I put out reflects that. But the vision of the piece and the ability to place all the parts on a record is an artform just in its own. Think of all the famous composers from the 17th to the 60s like Percy Faith, Nelson Riddle and Henry Mancini. Incredible talents all. Few of any were multi-instrumentalists. A thing that is required if you are going to DIY.  

 

2. Most of the software you named is NOT good enough to put out a record. There are only 3 that are worth and considered top of the line. In order of preference, by the industry, Pro Tools, Logic Pro and Sonar. These stand far above anything else like Garage Band, Band-in-Box, Acid Pro, or Ableton.   

 

3. The hope of an Indie artist getting a record deal is mostly a lost dream for any serious musician. Streaming like Spotify and Pandora etc. pay musicians in the .001. neighborhood per play. Well known groups like ColdPlay, don't even submit their music. Big groups get like $18 per month for their music being streamed. $18 freakin' dollars.  Source: Digital Music News.  The labels themselves are beset by the Napster phenomenon of musicians don't deserve to be paid. Therefore, to get sales, vast quantities of money must be spent to advertise the next new album by an artist in the label stable. They get good results but nothing like the 70s. Why pay when I can get a free download from my buddy that's already bought the album. What an idiot he is heh?  

 

4. Indie musicians/producers cannot front for that style of advertising. Therefore, guerrilla marketing on the internet and back of the show tables are how most music is sold for a profit these days. Now, think about this. A musician has to either pay someone to do this for him/her/group or DIY to make a cent.             

A. Write the music.            

B. Record the music.            

C. Mix the music.            

D. Master the music for airplay and bouncing to CD.            

E. Market the music.                        

a. Build website                        

b. Make a video for Vimeo or Youtube                        

c. Build an email marketing list                        

d. Find fans that are enamored with what the musician does and will promote by buying/wearing apparel supporting the artist.  

e. Find fans that will help any or all of this go viral. A VERY BIG IF!!  

 

5. Play shows to promote your music (I refuse to do this at this point due to age and the weight of stuff I have to move to each show).  

 

In my music prime from 1966 to 1972 I played gigs with a successful regional band in SE Texas/LA/Houston.  For a 4 piece band we made $100 to $200 a piece per night most nights. Sometimes more for holiday parties. Using your calculator from the St. Louis FED you can see that musicians now must be making in the neighborhood of $1000 per member per night. Right? Naw, they still make $50 to $100/night per player. Another reason I don't play these days. What for? A backache?  

 

Well, that's the real picture, so there has to be some other way to make money these days. And that way is to lease your music to film and documentary producers through agents. There are about 4 good ones out there on the internet where a musician can upload their music and wait for a payment. The music is good and shows up on series and movies etc.

 

The problem. Most that watch the movie will never who it was that produced the music and be able to find it doing a search on the web when they get home. It turns out to be a one shot deal at a time that pays 50% at most. And we're talking like $41 for a few seconds long piece to set the mood for the scene.    I wish your daughter all the best. It's long row to hoe. I'll be hoeing with her.   

 

Best regards,   J. Griff Griffin

 

What was the old question from my rock & roll radio days?  "So you wannabe a rock & roll star....?"

 

---

Monday  November 28,  2011

The "Time Remaining" To War Problem

(Tacoma, WA) As we make our way back to the ranch this week, it's with sincere regret that we leave.  Family, friends, and especially time spent with Clif who expects to have the next web bot run out by mid next week - at latest. and, in case you missed hit, there's a continuing accrual of data suggesting the PowersThatBe/Were will, in a final act of desperation, touch of World War III in order to cover their crimes, as Clif previews here.

 

Crimes such as?  Oh, those would be the ones I lump into the "Manufacturers' Resource Wars" which include plenty of false flags, drug-profits, oil and gas control and did I mention opium or the still-open dirt-weed border?  Or mass consumption of useless crap? 

 

In a dramatic turnaround in relations with Pakistan (predictable to knowledgeable observers since Pakistan has nukes and hasn't minded sharing with large Middle East oil powers like the Saudis) as 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a NATO attack gone wrong and as a result, US supply lines into Afghanistan have been cut.

 

Since we're into the period just before release of a web bot run, remember a good while back when we discussed the imagery of how US forces could be left stranded in an unfriendly theater of ops with no way to get out, let alone home?  Certainly seems to be heading that-a-way with Pakistan cutting off military supplies to the Stan.

 

Meantime, word that SecState Hillary Clinton is "closely" with SecDef Panetta to ease tensions is about as reassuring as a roll of paper towels to sop up the Atlantic.

 

Bottom line:  Getting Pakistan to play nice just got expensive off the chart.

 

Relearning:  Economic depressions tend to end in what long wave economics calls trough or peak wars.  Since this is a big trough, a nice world war is a convenient way to destroy the old and make way for the new.  As long as you're not part of the "old" being killed off for replacement, that is.

 

Republicorps Off Smashing Rights Again

One of the [subtle] lead-ins to the coming Corporate War on the World is how some sneaky-bastards in Washington have been crafting new legislation which would, according to the ACLU website, give the US military powers domestically which are presently solely in the hands of the courts and civil legal system:

 

"In support of this harmful bill, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) explained that the bill will “basically say in law for the first time that the homeland is part of the battlefield” and people can be imprisoned without charge or trial “American citizen or not.” Another supporter, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) also declared that the bill is needed because “America is part of the battlefield.”

 

Which battlefield?  Given that Homeland Security already looks askance at people who carry a copy of the Constitution or buy gold or guns, this military seizure of domestic law enforcement seems almost inevitable.  After all, why shouldn't civilians be locked up with not guarantee to a speedy trial, impartial jury of peers, or any of that 'messy stuff'?

Makes me hardly way to turn on the radio later today and see if the rabid right radio bloviators have the integrity to mention this sneak-attack on the Constitution, of how their corporate media masters will jerk their chains to spin utter fascism into something "good."  If you're had enough electric Kool-Aid.  I'll be the guy thanking God/Universe/The Fates that John McCain didn't make it to the White House, though his attack in this previously secret bill -  on our Foundations - are still contemptible and a dangerous corporate perversion of Founding Principles.

 

So, just in case you decide to go "occupy" something, be advised that your right to dissent is being stripped even more by the corporate lackeys you put in office.  Makes you proud to be a Corpmerican, does it?

 

Russia's Growing Strength

Not that there aren't serious geopolitical problems besides who's going to get the drug profits from Smackghanistan.  For example, Vlad Putin who has been nominated to again run for president of Russia in upcoming elections is warning the West against interfering in their political processes. 

 

Who, US?

 

Although he didn't give a list, he might have mentioned Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, and on and on are all sucking tax money out of America, so not toss Russia into the mix of countries that need "saving" eh, comrade kapitalist?  Why just look at all the world peace around we've  bought....er....which is what exactly?

 

No worries with US congressional leadership, which seems determined to sneak in Patriot IV, V and VI rather than ask by whose authority why we unilaterally exiting a national commitment to an arms treaty with the Ruskies.

 

I know...that'd be too tough in our era of do-over's an non-accountability.  Easier to write draconian laws in secret and try to sneak them in while people are preoccupied with Cyber Monday.

 

File under peeps/sheeps/corporate chattel.

 

Rest of World's Not As Crazy

The really odd relief drawing is that the rest of the world seems perfectly capable of acting in unison when something needs to be done, without the US bombing places back to the Stone Age, then rebuilding with (care to guess what?)  Tax dollars!

 

An example might be the Arab League voting new sanctions against Syria.

You may rest assured that the corporate-owned press will be showing only so much of this story:  Enough to make it seem like every reasonable Arab in the Sandbox is disgusted with Syria, but NOT so much as to make it look like they don't need Friendly Uncle running wars in the region. 

 

France, in teacup poodle-like fashion, is talking fierce about how the number of days left for the Syrian regime are numbered.  Ideological shading toward outright economic wars make for strange bedfellows.

 

Not Wars Till Europe Collapses, Though

Still, we may have till March of next year - and maybe beyond:  No point having a world war until as much money as possible has been stolen from "the people" right?

 

So we read how the British are lying in their muddle through plans for when (more than if) the Euro busts.

 

And the [nominal] "leaders" of France and Germany are trying to deftly horns waggle their constits and turn them upside down a few more times to empty their pockets, but while this is going on, we've heard that banks in Europe are furiously writing code to deal with a concurrency of Euro and something else more local and sounders.

 

The end of a bad idea takes a lot of time to arrange, don'tcha know.  Right palms to be crossed with silver and gold...

 

While the EU markets are holding a "made it through the weekend" party this morning the OECD says thanks to problems there, growth globally is shrinking.  Like you needed help figuring that.

 

Brains Dead in Newt Hampshire

I see that newspapers in NH don't have good memories, giving the Newter the nod in a local newspaper endorsement.

 

If you think I'm going to mention his being forced out of the US House Speaker job and fined $300,000 and how that's enough of a demonstration of poor judgement to rule him out of the presidency, I won't.  Instead, I'll simply point out he was willing to shut down US government operations as part of his personal political agenda.  But in New Hampshire, it's apparently easier to sell "zebra changing stripes" than to come out and say "Send me a republican who's not an idiot."  At least that leaves the party with lots of possibilities.

 

Still, Newt may be a better choice than some for the presidency and here's why:  Most don't sour or spoil until they get into office.  Newt's already soured and spoiled since back when he was bounced from the House so he'd got a head start on the other cabbages.

 

Makes you proud, don't it?  Two ounces of pot and po folk get 2-to-5 in the box.  Ethics charges and a $300,000 fine and Newter runs for the White House...that there is your rehabilitation of the yupper crust, ain't it?

 

Then again (I've said this before) we have the best government money can buy and this is how the bidding goes.   It also shows why people have fled the dirty-ink old-line newspapers for the "plain speak" follow-the-money, and honesty of the Internet.

 

Ure's Semi-Constant

Damn shame the market closed early on Friday, limiting session losses to 25 points on the Dow.  Our reading this morning continues pointing at a couple of hundred point loss shortly, but we shall see more tomorrow since the pre-open early was predicting a major rally on renewed talk about the moment's latest plan to print more money to save Europe.

 

I should have invested in printing companies when I was young.

 

Europe is was partying like it's 1999 overnight with two percent to three percent gains being typical.  But then, even dead cats bounce if you drop them from high enough.

 

UBS is figures markets are pricing in the end of the (EU) world.  But that's an indeterminate thing, so why not just let 'er rip to the upside once in a while? 

---

Loot, boot and shoot - WW3 may go game-on next year but I still expect there will be an IRS around in April of '12.  Someone's got to pay for the collapse of the world and near as I can figure, the folks stuck with the tab will be... us!

 

Moody's Blues

And yes, it looks like most of the EU should be downgraded.  But seriously, how hard  was that to figure out?

 

Global Supply Chain Bump

A note from our Indonesia Bureau Chief this morning makes me think about how few crossings there are of the Mississippi River...

 

Had a bit of a scare over in East Kalimantan (Borneo) yesterday.  A major bridge collapsed outside of Samarinda, which links dozens of smaller towns and villages with civilization.  The bridge is also blocking a major river artery, which is especially important to shipping coal from the mines further inland. 

 

The collapse has been blamed on poor (if any) maintenance and may take months, if not years to restore both road and river traffic.  It’s the ony bridge over that river for many miles inland.  All other crossings are hand-pulled ferries.  As of this morning’s Kompas, there were 5 dead, 33 missing and 40 injured.

 

The bridge chokes off a good amount of coal supply to Thailand and China.  Thailand, still under water, can ill afford more shocks.  According to a friend in northeast Thailand, his farm on the Mekong river near Nongkai is only reachable by boat, and the first floor of the hosue has been under water for weeks now, as well as his prized tractor.

 

Meanwhile, all is well! 

 

The Asian and Euro markets have all rocketed in the wild, green yonder, and US futures are looking mighty fine, as well.  Green shoots are all over the darned place, except in Pakistan.  But who needs them, right?  Just because they have nukes and are now motivated to be friends with Iran doesn’t mean they are worth sweating about.  Hell, we’ll just set up supply lines and drone bases in…hmmm…let’s see.  Who’s still our friends over there?  Seems we’ve stirred up hornets in just about every corner of the region.

 

Welder’s goggles on.  Lead cod-piece in place.  Gas mask at the ready…

 

But in all seriousness, or at least some, the odds of going out in a flash of light and pool of glass today is next to zero.  So we have another day to either fight the Beast or feed it.

 

Damn, I hate big projects on Monday.

 

Coping: Hey SciAm!  Credit Where Due?

(Tacoma, WA)  Tell you a little story:  More than 10 years ago we rolled out the Web Bot Project of Clif at www.halfpasthuman.com. 

 

Used predictive linguistics to try and "see" the future and we've been posting highlights of data runs - first as extracts of the ALTA series and more recently as shorter "Shape of Things to Come" reports.

 

That we don't get credit or mention of working our asses off, wasn't too big a deal early on when a CIA venture fund told us "Meritorious technology, but it's not in our current funding plans..."

 

And then along came from FU'ed EU academics in about 2006 who had the audacity and balls to claim they invented predictive linguistics, which pardon my directness, is a crock of shit.

 

And then to have www.recordedfuture.com come up with a bunch of venture money to go off and do their thing...well, we live with that since we know where the snags are that they will run into, and we've been seeing their spiders out and about, says Clif.

 

But all these things are the stuff I've seen before.  Not like it's my first time to be "first" helping birth a new technology and still lose out in the fame and glory, not to mention money.  I was out on the leading edge of home computing in 1985 long before there was an internet and earlier, doing the first-ever broadcast of computer text message content in 1983... 

 

But this morning I am seriously disappointed in Scientific American which has an article "The Machine That Would Predict The Future."

 

I don't often un-recommend something.  But if this is the best SciAm can do - not (according to readers) mentioning Clif's 10 years of work, or tripping over the decent-sized Wikipedia entry about the project, my advice is shy away.

 

Or, write them a note about "credit where due" - even if we talk pies and end of the world, it's never too late for good research and served with a side order of credit where due.  Even here in the middle of globalrev.

 

I won't call it "bungled".  I'll just say the report on predicting the future seems to me just a wee little bit....incomple

 

---

Ego aside, we don't make any claims about success rates, and no, we haven't published long involved statistical analyses which seem to keep accounting mentality types happy.  No money, no time, it's a small garage enterprise.

 

I can tell you with some confidence is that come end of this week, we'll be back into release language and if you're going to buy a new bed for Christmas, get one with extra tall legs...something you can hide under.

 

Just like we said something ugly was going to occur in fall 2008 (almost a year in advance of that debacle) the word's out in the next report:  Buy a bed big enough to hide under...and something with a lead bed skirt would be nice.

 

I'll natter on about this stuff, but whether it's enough to change the drifty future into something more pleasant, ask me in June of next year.

 

Just remember who was telling you to Duck!  Four months in advance.

 

Survival Mindset

What happens when you're in Oz and a wildfire is about to burn your home?  Set sprinklers and jump in a pool with scuba gear on, maybe?

 

Flattening of the Music Industry

Had a dandy dinner last night with a somewhat unusual news source - my daughter Denise, who as you may remember is heavily into creating music. 

 

As we tossed around how to monetized her musical output I realized just how much impact the computer is having on how music is generated.

 

Once upon a time, playing something like the flute involved a whole industry to first mine the ore, then melt the metals, draw out the tubing, machine the rest, and then put it in the hands of a musician to learn to play - and then with some luck, get good enough at playing so as to be able to write attractive music.

 

I explained to her that  today, all that drudgery is gone with a few mouse clicks and any old sound card, and while we're in it, toss in Garritan Personal Orchestra 4.0 ($140, Amazon) and you've got a whole symphony with advanced features. Compose in

 

Turns out, I'm not the only one watching this "flattening of Empire" that's going on in the music industry:  The virtualized, low overhead product delivery models are here to stay and breakthroughs like Amazon's new Kindle Fire, Full Color 7" Multi-touch Display, Wi-Fi ($200, Amazon) are continuing the transition of humans from a full-contact experience with Life to a virtualized interface.

 

As I explained it to her, we're headed for a time when you'll show up at a concern hall, and someone like her will step onto the stage, and then suddenly a large computing backbone will drive delivery of new kinds of music - which I assume will be of increasing complexity to harmonize with the runaway growth of human complexity globally.

 

Denise, being an empath, doesn't see it that way.  "Dad, there's no way a machine can replicate how a bass guitar feels...the touch of the fingers on the strings is not something you can capture in software..."

 

Maybe, but I'm not so sure:  Look how airplane flying, just to mention a complex learning platform, has now been virtualized since it's so much cheaper to build up a decent simulator than to actually go our and shoot landings in a 737.

 

Point is, keep an eye on a study coming out of Queensland Conservatory at Griffith University.  True, the study won't even start till next year, but the main thing is that computer tracks are likely more and more to become performance partners in music and, as such, will give aspiring musicians a much more diverse set of tools for individual expression.

 

One of the holiday projects I have going back at the ranch is finally taking time to build up my new Theremin, similar to the Moog Music Etherwave Theremin Kit ($350, Amazon) although the one I'm building requires soldering up the printed circuit board, too.

 

Our discussion of the "future of music" especially as it relates to the computer leaves one important question unanswered:  Just as humans interact with words effectively through keyboards and voice recognition software, what is the ultimate interface for music? 

 

It you want to become a gazillionaire, all you need to do is invent a new kind of synthesizer interface which uses some of the familiar "whole body" responses integrated into flight simulator software and such. 

 

Imagine, if you will, taking the pedals for flight sims, the yoke, a bunch of controls on the throttle quadrant, and so forth, and wiring it all to "fly" out musical ideas...that could be mighty interesting and liberating, all at once.

 

I wonder if Finale 2011 or Finale PrintMusic 2011 ($98) has an application interface?

 

Back to the point:  The music industry is being flattened by the net and more and more the value of the composer is headed to the fore while the supporting infrasture required for success seems to be in decline.

 

When someone like me can write a half dozen instruments into a little ditty, world's changing once again.  Composing is great fund, although a tremendous time sink.  Still, as the world carreens into the future, that's where technology is taking us:  To the skinnied-down overhead of the sort where you own almost every possible instrument in your computer already and all that's needed is a few more lowered barriers to monetizing musical creativity to push things along toward the "thought becomes action" world, presently limited to dreamstates.

 

I'll let you know how the Theramin build goes and how inept I can be in music even with only a volume and a pitch control to play with.

 

Half Way Round America

Out (way too damned early) this morning for Palm Springs where our own plane has been sitting over the holiday weekend while we've met with Clif and others.  This afternoon, we should be into our hotel and then tomorrow expect a semi-short column since we'll be getting back into our sleep, write, fly mode on the way back to Texas.

 

Thanks for dropping by this morning.  More tomorrow on our strange trip to a land of make-believe:  Where people live close together, freeways are almost constantly clogged, and where happiness is determined by pieces of paper.