The Site They Don't Want You To Read Which Outs the Big Game.
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Mr. Ure Shoots Fish...
Yep: Like shooting fish in a barrel now. Why? It's not too often that all my indicators can be seen as synching up in a perfect trading period, and while I'm only going to outline what I expect will happen this fall in general terms, this is one of those periods which I'm as confident of the outcome as I was when I bought a boatload of UAL puts prior to the 1987 collapse. In other words, my sense is that this is a second chance of a lifetime to make some pretty good money in the market since charts, wave counts, predictive linguistics. and underlying trends in the news flows seem to all point toward a predictable, tradable, nevertheless scary period just ahead. So though it's subject to change without notice, this is a mostly excellent fitting of a wide range of data sources.... Oh, and the PTB may wasted gas going to Denver. But suppose we start there...
Slow Motion Collapse of the Check Book Republic
Say, this has been quite the week, huh? Dow seems to be heading down just as some folks (...er...like me....) told you it would. And chatting with Robin Landry yesterday, he's still not sure if this is a 5th wave down of the large Elliott 1 down off last summer's highs, or whether this is Wave 3 beginning with the recent rally being a Wave 2. But it doesn't hardly matter and we'll just stay 50% short, 50% cash until the wave count clarifies.
One thing we continue to watch with horror is the Federal Reserves money-printing binge. The annualized creation of M1 is up another tick in yesterdays after-the-close H.6 Money Stocks report to a whopping 36.8 percent while M2 is holding at an annualized 23.3 percent.
To those worried about hyperinflation, the keep thing to remember in here it the Fed/Treasury can print money all day long, but if the velocity of money continues to crater (down to 1.5715 now, compared with 1.64'ish at the 2009 market lows) you can print money until the Second Coming and not see secular inflation. Money in dark pools of capital doesn't press prices. Simply accrues to the Rich.
That said however, when it eventually does show up, it's gonna be awful. Still, we continue expecting gold to drop in the gulch here down to around $1,425 $1,450 before going up to $2,000 but like Pappy used to point out, "Price only matters when you buy and when you sell..." Indeed.
Hardest hit among the Asian markets was Korea where stocks were down almost 5-3/4'ths percent. They seemed to have a mini bank run, which was presaged by regulatory action against seven banks last week.
And there could be some sour Krauts in Germany next week if the September 12 lows get taken out...we're verging on that with the DAX hovering just over the 5,000 level.
Prague was showing down more than 7% and the MICEX was showing down more than 12½ percent. If you look up the word "Ugly" in the dictionary, don't be surprised if you find something like "See European Union and Former Soviet Union."
Keen Insight Department
Those G20 Whizzes
Oh, and you saw where oil ($81 this morning) is working its way down toward my $65 target, which just increases further the chances that the Palestinian Homeland issue in October will push us into an Arab Oil Embargo, since most of the OPECkers have a $90 break/even point for their national budgets. And Arab Spring is not when you want to go missing revenue targets, now, is it?
Oh...also: Headlines like "Solyndra failure puts solar industry on defensive" all get solved with an Oil Embargo, too, don't they? Check me on this...
A Troubling - or Inspired - UCC Filing
While we've been collectively wondering what's going on that's making the whole world so wonky here lately, we happened to be pointed in the direction of a very - I mean extremely odd little filing in the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) filings in the State of Maryland.
It's a UCC Financing statement (File #0000000181425776) AMENDMENT which was done on August 12th of this year. And you know who the debtor and secured parties are?
And the Secured Parties?
And if you click over here to the underlying document, what's the amount involved in this UCC filing? How about just north of $14-trillion dollars?
This "Agricultural Lien" seems to add the Comptroller of Maryland.
So what's the change here all about? If you have any clues as to just what the hell this is about (the data seems to live on a server of Towson University which is according to it's web site:
Oh, and part of the University System of Maryland.
First question is whether this is a "real deal" UCC filing, or if this is some kind of elaborate hoax.
As our tipster's email points out:
Yes, wouldn't we all like to know! So do research and have it in my email by Sunday - we'll post follow-up Monday morning.
But say, wouldn't this be a reason for all them Big Wigs to be out of DC when news of this leaks out? I mean if it's what we think it could be...
On the other hand, since one of the parties on this is listed as the North American Water and Power Alliance and this was (to quote Wikipedia)
Of course it could be a joke...but someone went to a lot of trouble to do up very official-looking address stamps on the underlying document...
What IF - and this is only an IF here - this is going to become suddenly real shortly and turn into a massive redevelopment project to stave off the Second Depression, just as the Works Progress Administration and Civilian Conservation Corps were rolled out to counter the effect of the (first) Great Depression?
Wow! Hell of a story, huh? And would that be why all the Big Wigs are converging on Denver? Could announcement of something this BIG be an Obama September Surprise next week?
Popcorn and Tums at the ready, ViseGrips, too. If this is a hoax, it's a peach.
And you do know, from Cartography/Topology 301 class that the drought-parched portions of Texas and Oklahoma, New Mexico and so forth is down hill from the proposed project? What a sweet deal for corporate agriculture!
Hope I haven't blown someone's plans for a big whoopdie press conference and cheerleading session with this...
Readings from Colleagues
Two goodies on (coauthor) Howard Hill's site worth your time: In his post "Contagion" he explains how financial calamities (like the one in play now, yeah?) are really cause & effect critters.
The other note on Howard's site is his experience of actually getting an Annual Percent Rate correction in his favor on a credit card bill. I may suggest he do an article for Ripley's Believe It Or Not on that one.
And from Bob Bronson came an email advising: "Don't be fooled into missing a bullish technical set up":
So if I seem a bit hair-triggered on my exits from the short side (only 50% short now) it's because I see something similar, and the next wave up will be dramatic and fast when it gets here.
Robin Landry's presently looking at a possible completion from Dow 10,336 down to 9,563. Depends on which wave count is in play, but if this is just the finish for the larger 1 down from the summer high, I may go long down in there.
Hell, anymore could be just a couple of hours of trading.
If you care about Rick Perry's road to the White House, might want to read here. If not, since I think he's been twice blessed by the build-a-burgers and only one last interview to go, it's already a foregone conclusion he wins, so politics is just a giant time-sink to watch. Don't you have something better to do, really?
Oh...sorry...forgot: Some people are still mesmerized by the two party myth. There is only one party and that's the Money Party. They have 2½ franchises operating in America presently.
From our reader in Arkansas...
Seems paradoxical, but one really can be a patriotic pro-America, constitutionalist and still harbor revolutionary thought, it seems. It's just the MSM doesn't like to let on, but with billions in ad dollars held hostage, who's got the goanies to call BS on how corporations act?
MSM Buries Occupy Wall Street
Speaking of media coverage here in the Check Book Republic, it may seem like a hard read of things, but how much MainStream coverage of the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations this week have you seen? Bet'cha most people haven't even heard of it.
You need to read up on this movement here (check the pictures, too).
Oh, and as one of the TP posters noted, this is what life could be like whent he US Post Office goes banko. Peachy, just frigging peachy.
Oh...and I assume you've been following the "little accident" Yahoo had - censoring emails about the event? Funny how those filter accidents happen...
A little notice was posted in the Irish Examiner this morning that "Scientists overturn Einstein's speed of light law."
Not sure what to make of it, but as I'd remind my colleague who's the biophotonics researcher: "Quantum physics is nothing to make light of..." (no groans, please...)
Nevertheless, inspection of the article notes this breakthrough came by pumping tiny particles from Switzerland to Italy.
And therein may lie the answer to the apparent paradox since, as anyone who studies economics knows, Italy is a kind of black hole these days....
OMG: Operation Mountain Guard
Curiously timed FEMA drill up in Denver today:
Oddly timed indeed.
You talk about Patriots: My consigliore offered to guard Breckenridge, once they've got 10-inches of fresh powder...
You see someone trying to steal a mountain in Denver today, ya'll be sure and call FEMA, hear?
There Be Pirates Department: Jackmice
Remember our discussions recently about how the web bot project runs into something of a brick wall in mid 2013? One more idea I've had recently is that so many web sites could be shut down that data collection would be meaningless drivel from only corpgov blesses sources.
So what would that look like? Well, in Italy, there's work being done on what PC World headlines as a "one-Strike' anti-piracy Law."
Sure fits with the "hard corporate fascism" outlook. Oh, and in this Italian nightmare to come, a user of the internet could be disconnected over an allegation alone! No finding of fact, no trial, zip, bupkis...kaput.
OMG have we evolved as fascistas, huh? Jackboots of hard regimes in the past are morphing into the coming sick era of industrial repression via...what shall we call them? Aha! Jackmice.
More after this...
Coping: With Proton Flux Events
Remember how the movie 2012 began? I keep coming back to this because as our source up the ladder of the PTB some ways told us a long time back "The Movie is the message..." In the lead-in to the movie, scientists in India, working in some old mine, notice an increase in some particle or other coming off the sun.
So whenever I get notices from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, I par attention, especially when president Obama et al are up in Denver (thinking high ground, eh?) on the 27th. Made all the more interesting because a coronal mass ejection will be hitting earth Sunday:
None of which is to suggest a big earthquake is imminent next week, but it wouldn't surprise me. Clif keeps mentioning the West Coast sure has been quiet in a strange/foreboding sort of way.
All of which wouldn't be worth mentioning except that Oilman2 had a little time on his hands yesterday and has come up with a new way of looking at earthquakes, using a kind of graphing system used by oil-types for certain kinds of engineering problems....I think of it as a kind variant of the electronics Smith charts I'm familiar with, but without the log scale, but here's where this eventually leads...the cool email from Oilman2:
All of which is pretty interesting. It's also why there is some urgency to getting our plane out of the shop.
Rather than wait for a slow supply chain to come up with two more regular cylinders for the magic carpet, we've decided to do chromed cylinders as Mark the Mechanic continues slogging his way through my squawks list which will eventually wind up with a complete TOH being done. One of my research projects this weekend if reading up all the pros and cons on how to best break in chrome cylinders.
The good news? Don't have to buy a new TSO'd altimeter...which would have been a further $1,000 hole in the wallet
The Friday Funnies After This...
The Friday Funny: Medical
Came in this email from a reader in Manila, Philippines:
Prepper Shopping List
A reader who thinks there's something coming around October 24th, based on the Tech N9ne "Lost Cities Tour" (see buildings and graphics on the poster here) did send us a goodies toward the end of his note:
And odds are pretty good it's on fire already prior to hitting said fan.
And we end on this statistical note:
Why? We just know we're screwed....we're just working on our timing.
More tomorrow on the www.peoplenomics.com site, otherwise, come back Monday for another harsh order of reality with a side of humor and a cuppa Joe...
Reader Action Department:
Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers & S/w and outdoor gear.
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Sizing Up Disruptive Technologies
Almost six months ago, we pondered - in Peoplenomics Issue # 504-B - the possibility of a new and highly disruptive technology appearing. We speculated there could be ripples throughout the economy should a new technology show up that dramatically extends a product life and simultaneously creates a massive wave of unemployment. Camp, as it is, to talk by the Kurzweil "Singularity" the adherents of every-accelerating change reveals they have their heads up somewhere (go ahead and guess...) because they overlook two axioms of fast change: Unemployment and capital that demands a return on investment (ROI). All of which would be fine if disruptive technology was just theory. The bad news this weekend is a disruptive technology is now showing up...
Computer cookies have a purpose in life - they facilitate things like online banking and stock trading. But there's a vicious side to them: They can be used to track your web use without you even knowing about it. And even more dangerous are the 'cross site' cookies which can install malware on your computer without you ever knowing it.
The answer? Maxa Cookie Manager, MCM.
Take it for a free test drive by clicking here - and it you like it, activation is easily done. If you're a heavy web user (who ain't?) you may find like I do that you've accumulating a hundred or more cookies per day. Only a handful need to be white-listed, like your brokerage account or your bank. The rest? Software designed to spy on you that robs you of computer performance. Been using it for several years and pleased as the Dickens with it.
The "Do Drop Inn"
Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com. And remember our saying at MyGroPonics: It's OK to be a vegetable...
Post your weird dreams to help our research along into what goes on at night in people's heads: www.nationaldreamcenter.com
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The 9,500-10,400 Problem
The question is not whether the market is going down this morning, it's how far down will it go? Blowing off more than 280-points is one thing, but in the larger picture, as we've been warning for weeks, the real tale will be told closer to the 10,000 level.
Bernard Grover checked in from our Indonesia Bureau overnight with this:
Yup, happy indeed. My portfolio is now 48% higher than it began the year and some of my 'crackpot' ideas seem to have been vindicated as Japan was down about 2% overnight, and China's Hang Seng dropped more than 4½ percent. Glad I don't do this for a living.
Europe, never especially quick to come to their senses is also broadly down with the French down almost 5%, the Germans down 4.3% and the Unemployed Kingdom down 4½%, too.
Still, being the conservative greedster that I am, I took profits on the close yesterday and will wait for a bounce before re-entering on the short side. If the market loses another hundred (or so) today, I can then apply some basic Fibonacci bounce expectations and dollar-cost average into another short position for the next leg down should one come.
How far this goes will answer the big question: Is this wave 1 down of a larger three? In that case, look for an acceleration to the downside. Or, what seems to me more likely (but this ain't investment advice!) we could turn today, do our retracement, and view the chart of this as the beginning of (5) down of the larger 1. If that's the count, then we might turn today, then bounce through the rest of the week (where I might re-enter a short position) as that would be a smaller (ii) of (5) of 1, and then take some more chips off the table next week and thereafter when we go down in (iii) of (5) of 1, if that's the count.
Either way, plenty of money to be made, or, if you're a cowardly capital preservation type, the wisdom of being in fixed incomes of some sort would become apparent rather soon.
May favorite count at the moment is leaning toward a turn today and bounce for to indicate (ii) of (5) of 1 is the count and then DCA in and let 'er rip.
Under that count, we'd scream down to 10,400 or so in a week to week and a half, then rally like there's no tomorrow. (There ain't one...)_ and then do the really big declines in October as Clif's report suggests. But once we hit the 10,400 to 9,600 kind of range, there is a potential for a huge rally which I'd like to be on the correct side of.
As always, we shall see, but so far, this is an interesting little adventure. If you're not OK with the market going down another thousand Dow points, bonds or money markets might be placeholders, but this is between you and your financial advisor. Or spouse.
That Oil Embargo This Fall
...seems to be shaping up. Mind you, this is a hare-brained trading scheme only at this point, but without going into the details that we did in yesterday's mid-week Peoplenomics report, we read this morning how the "Palestinians denounce Obama's speech opposition their bid for UN recognition."
As I explained in the Wednesday Peoplenomics report (depending on how much dot-connecting juice you'd sucked down) the two factors moving us toward an oil embargo are the rising Arab Spring tide (and the Palestinian issue is part and parcel of that) on the one hand.
On the other is the declining price of oil, which dropped significantly again overnight. As the Wall Street Journal reports this morning that is "Good news on price price for Europe's refiners" but the key line in that report is that the OPECkers need to keep oil over $90 to balance their budgets and what's one way to do that? I mean harnessing the power of Arab Spring and all?
You really, really need to reread the history of the 1973 to 1974 event, in particular. Falling prices, punishment for a US Middle East move (resupplying Israel during the Yom Kippur War) bippity-boppity-boo: It rhymes! Notice the dates in 1973, too: October to March.
Did I mention the stock decline won't be nearly over until gold's been down in the $1,400's and starts to rise? Looong ways to go down. I may go short on any strength this morning again...
Say, you seen that four-parter investigative piece "Meltdown: The men who crashed the world" which Al Jazeera has up on streaming?
Is Tokyo Fook'ed?
Say, here's another one to toss into the blender for this fall: Since Fukishima is still spewing, how soon before the MSM/lamestreammedia gets around to talking about the abandonment of Tokyo? Worse than Chernobyl...
This was just put out in the past few minutes by the Labor Department:
Want to hear an oldie but goody? "Green shoots."
Leading Economic Dart Toss in an hour. I'd try to do an update with those numbers.
Getting Them Bushistas Speculation
You notice where form SecDef Don Rumsfeld has been reportedly stripped of immunity by a 7th Circuit Court decision in the case of two US contractors who were tortured in Iraq?
Whether Rummy will show up in Boston next week will be interesting. He's out promoting his book Known and Unknown: A Memoir due out in April in paperback.
In the meantime, you might understand our attitude toward Rumsfeld and his ilk by reading Alexander Cockburn's book Rumsfeld: His Rise, Fall, and Catastrophic Legacy. No kidding? You mean like aspartame? Or, you talking Rummy's roll in 9/11 and Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State? But what's a missing pallet of hundreds, huh?
Naw, maybe it's just the hijacking of America's foreign policy by them neocon dudes who are working it even now...
Coping: With the "Missing Dream"
Time for a "Strategic-Living.net" kind of long-term viewpoint discussion because we're seeing a new consensus about where America and the world) is heading develop right before our eyes. To fully appreciate it will require patiently wading through a fair bit of background, but getting this vision right is critically important to making optimized personal planning decisions for at least the next half decade.
A more or less constant theme around here is that long wave economics work I've been involved with since way back when persuasively argues that contrary to the hype and BS pushed by the MainStreamMedia/MSM, the world really is in a major economic depression which is likely to surpass even the misery of the 1930's.
Depression is a word with two meanings; one - the economic - has to do with the depth and length of a major recession. The second - psychological - deals with a mental state which can be most personally distressing.
Curiously, an economic depression brings about a kind of psychological depression at the national/international level. It's a time when people become poor in spirit and outlook. Backing up a step, what causes this is an excessive period of recession that grinds and grinds such that people begin to lose that most magical of human qualities: Hope.
If there was a single human attribute that I had to pick out as a predictive metric of where a nation was heading, it would be some kind of Hope Index. The problem is, obviously, that the Hope Index doesn't exist because that would be too simple. Instead, economists use proxies for Hope.
One really good indicator of Hope are two statistics which tell the aware observer a lot about where the future is heading. One is the birth rate (and we'll get into that in Saturday's Peoplenomics a bit in our "Losing the Sex Race?" discussion.
The second, and there's some new data out on this Wednesday, is the state of home purchases. Noticed an interesting piece in The Christian Post overnight about how experts (if economists can be considered such) expect "No Housing Recovery through 2015, New Survey Says."
This dimming view of the future was also voiced, if you read (or watch) into the story a ways in the remarks for former president Bill Clinton who is quoted in an article here as saying "...the nation could be struggling for the next five years or more to emerge from its economic slump."
With this as background (and I suppose we could toss a few other bricks on the scale, like the collapsing velocity of money which typically accompanies the collapse into Hard Times), the point I'm getting around to is that young people are are speaking in very harsh terms, not only about the future, but those of us who are becoming "the grays" who had lived a phat life and expect to be able to push off the tab onto the young.
Last weekend, Oilman2 was up to the house - he and the missus are bailing out of the high-density Houston area where he's be a fixture in the oil biz for years - because he wants to develop a more self-sufficient homestead kind of place so that his kids will always have somewhere to come back to, and where he can use his considerable engineering skills to do much of what we've been up to here in the outback: Develop an ultra-low operating expense survival platform.
In our discussions, one of the key things we got into was the outlook held by kids. As I related the experiences of our kids in the Seattle area (all over 30 and only one owns a home (25% home ownership) and none of which are family forming/baby-making, we got into how there's just not much out on the socioeconomic horizon that would give a young person much Hope.
Oilman2 sent me an email a couple of days later which summed up where his kids - who are in much the same boat - are headed. This came right after he finished reading through Clif's latest Shape of Things to Come report...
As I explained to Peoplenomics readers (with more logic and less emotion) yesterday: I think there's a chance that we could have a new trumped up crisis this fall because the PowersThatBe/Were (PTB/W) are going to be backed into a corner by a growing sense of global rebellion which, in case you missed the morning's news sampling above, is alive and well and growing.
So I'm considering a couple of lottery tickets - out of the money oil call options for early next year delivery on the theory that with falling oil prices and increased tensions in the Middle East, what the world needs about now is a good-sized energy crisis and the whole Palestinian Homeland mess seems custom-designed to fit exactly that outlook.
Higher gas prices, a sudden resurgence in alternative energy, a kind of holy crusade for domestic energy development. Oh, and the OPECkers would get to quadruple their oil prices which while it would cause a darned big recession/depression in the West would restore their financial vigor and would allow them to buy off the Arab Spring agitprop.
If you see a collapsing dollar, gas lines, and shooting in the Middle East this winter, don't be too surprised: It's one of the few scenarios that would meet most of Clif's major 'deal points' outlined in the predictive linguistics and which would cause enough turmoil and provide a rationale for more extension of government into the private affairs of citizens.
For now, this is only a general trend in daily events, but we'll be watching this extremely closely, since it could cause all of the events seen in the Shape report and would likewise pave the way for the Bond Collapse this fall, too.
The missing antidote for all this? Hope.
An email this morning about the Shape report from a young man sums it up this way:
Send us a postcard. We've been looking at the globe a bit to...got quite an enclave of readers in Ecuador and other spots in the Andes.
Hobbies: Plane Speaking
Speaking of high elevations, you may notice that I haven't been regaling you with adventures flying hither and yon in our new (1966 vintage) airplane. Simple reason for that: Took it down to Mark the Mechanic at KDKR since I knew one cylinder was had slightly low compression when tested and wanted him to check it out. Well, turns out another cylinder was also discovered bad in the process of testing and so forth, so the next decision became "If I'm doing two cylinders, why not do the other two and have a complete Top Overhaul (TOH) and then the engine should be good to at least 2,000 hours (it's around 1,300 hours now...)
Since we're planning to do a good bit of lazy cross-country flying, we went with the whole top end...four cylinder worth...so plane is down for another week to 10-days while parts come in. I'm day-trading like mad to make up the spread.
Found out something else, too: the altimeter in a certified aircraft may have roughly the same specs as what's in an experimental category plane, but the price difference is $925 for the one versus $389 for t'other.
On the pleasant side, discovered most excellent customer service from Ram Mounts when I needed a part for the iFlyGPS yoke mount.
All of which is leading to a modification of Ure's Axiom of Airplanes: Have at least 40% more than plan cost handy in ready cash to get everything up to snuff.
The Axiom had started at 10% (August 22 estimate) and soon it will have been cheaper to jump right into a very old used Lear or WestWind.
Seems like one of my big lessons or learnings in Life will be which is most expensive?
One old-time hobby that has gotten dramatically cheaper is photography, but tried that too with an old 2¼ X 3¼ Speed Graphic with sheet film. Camera got to be worth half the price of a car at one point. I sold.
After the airplane (age 65+ I'm hoping) we will move on to RV'ing. If there's a world left and something to run one on.
Adventures in RSS
Got an email from a reader who was miffed (I think that's what #$%^& YOU) means, that I put a link to the Peoplenomics update on the RSS email feed (link top of page). Reader figured it was misleading to mix the daily update pointers with the pointer to Peoplenomics.
So let me know if I should (or should not) put a note out when the Peoplenomics site is updated. Major rules on this. Otherwise, the RSS feed will be ONLY four times a week for UrbanSurvival and won't mention the other content and what's in it.
Sheesh...blind stumbling around on this stuff....send comments.
Others With PR Issues
Seems I'm not the only one with 'issues' on how to use the net right/proper-like. Got an email from the CFTC this morning telling me...
Anxious to see what they were up to I immediately clicked through (Maybe they were actually going to do something on metals prices, I thought...who knows, right?)
Makes me feel a bit better. No, make that worse. No.....
The Thursday Funnies
May have to start a new "Little Walter" category, since our Little Larry stories have been running a bit light here later.
But here's a peach of a Little Walter story...
Well, look at that would you? Time for us to recess, too. We'll reconvene this here kangaroo court tomorrow at 8 AM Central, more of less.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
This is the day we move Wednesday reports to our www.peoplenomics.com site. $40/year for subscribers. This way, I keep up the flow of high quality information and still get a day off! Here's what's going on over there:
If You THINK a Crashing is Coming...
Later on today, the Fed is expected to offer another one of those finely crafted word collections (Fed Statements) that will read as though prescient 6-months from now regardless of what happens. As usual, we'll review overnight events, but first let's look at the biggest question of all: When (or if) to sell metals. Then we size up the odds of another oil embargo in light of the upcoming Palestinian homeland issue and push some numbers around on that topic....which might fit some of the panic/fear/global crisis language in Clif's report out Tuesday.
Free access report will be back - as always - tomorrow.
Bot Run Out: Up the Down Elevator?
While our government spends who knows how much on their Open Source Indicators project and while various academics are tripping over their petchewzelwhackers trying to invent predictive linguistics, we're pleased to announce that Clif has posted the link to the new Shape of Things to Come report over on his website.
A careful read of the bottom of page 9 will clear up my "watch for smoke" reference, but beyond that, many larger issues are cropping up like this reader question:
This is indeed the hardest part of what's ahead to wrap your head around, since orderly inflation has been de rigueur for most of us since birth. The idea was that a person could invest in ownership of something like a house and thanks to the changing purchasing power of money (reduced value of money = inflation) pay the home off with cheaper money.
Now, however, as we have been stridently warning, with the collapse of monetary velocity, the money is becoming more dear.
While I hit near-panic when I realize that of nine children between Elaine and me, less than half own homes and we're talking kids in their 30's and 40's!
But they may be geniuses and here's why: Say they had purchased a home for $180,000 in 2008 at the very top of the bubble. That home today might be worth only half that amount. So they would have paid twice the home's value.
What's worse, wages have been pretty much flat. And with other prices going up, the little money they would have becomes more dear (precious).
Now let's push this out a bit: What's the world like where people continue to have a house debt that's big and unemployment keeps rising (no new jobs, after all) and consequently, wages continue to erode.
Wages eroding will then stabilize prices and actually bring some down. That's what happens in deflation.
And where did all the money go? Into dead pools. All quite natural when the ratio of M2 (going up at a 3-month rate annualized) 23.3 percent and GDP is flat to declining slightly.
Which is why Peoplenomics this weekend is tackling the two biggest questions out there: When is the right time to bail out of gold and silver (if ever) and concurrently, what's it mean when George writes "We're losing the Sex Race"?
Gold and silver are likely to continue gaining real purchasing power, but only to the point where government confiscates like they did with gold and silver in the 1930's. But in terms of wages? They really can fall. And housing prices? You know the answer to that one.
I've said it before but it bears repeating: We're in a huge deflation now. The proof is in the Fed/Treasury hyperinflation which is almost completely gobbled up by the falling prices. Leaving 4% apparent inflation but behind the scenes velocity is still crashing and it will have the inevitable results when the market comes to its senses.
Power of the Hype
I get up every stinking morning and tell you for years about how the American Dream is toast. Does anyone pay attention? Not so far as I can tell.
But let old Slick Willie come out and say "The American Dream is under Assault!" and somehow that's news.
No, make that hype.
The old GOPsters have stuck their foot in it and they don't even see it yet. Calling the idea of a balanced budget Class Warfare.
If you ever needed proof that the republicorps are lap dogs of the corpsters in the back room who write checks to both parties, here you go. The world corp-you-lent comes to mind.
Told you: Should have let them fail. Teach them corporate debt pigs that there's real risk involved in finance and the American public isn't going to go the route of Germany - getting stuck with the bill for Europe's wild spending - without a fight.
Just a matter of whether it takes place in congress with gentlemen's rules, or in the street. Wonder is them big lobbying outfits are 'getting it'?
Throw 'em all out next election, is how I'm voting. The straight Save America Ticket.
Ah, remember the "good old days"? When we used to have a housing industry?
newest out this morning from the Census Bureau covering August activity:
Unfortunately, the Census press release doesn't go back very far, and it's here where we dig into Excel a bit to come up with a comparison. In 2007, the announcing housing start rate was 1,046,000 homes (annual rate).
With starts this month at an annual of 571,000, we're pretty comfortable alleging that we're running 54.6% of where we were four years ago.
It Ain't Over....
Yes, our bets are still on for a collapse of the EuroMess. Here, you hold the camel steady and I'll put another straw on his back. How about this one? Italy's credit rating has been cut by S&P.
Asia Bank Runs
While the headlines are about saying hopeful things like "Banks avoid massive withdrawals" this seems to be a little bigger than just another straw on the old camel's back.
Railroad tie is more like it, and a wet one at that.
More Straws - Quick!
EU banks may be needing more money to make it through the crisis says this report. Siemens was rumored to be rolling their dough out of some French banks. No problems for us, says BNP Paribas.
One hell of a strong camel, huh?
We talked last week about the general small slowing of imports via West Coast ports. Got an email from the Port of Tacoma folks with new cargo stats - exports up a bit but check this:
Baltic Dry Index is rolling over and we're hearing that the scrappers/ship breakers are getting ready for a lot of work to cut down on over capacity in ocean shipping.
Paying Off the Palestinians
Check Your Brain at the Counter
What next in marketing? People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals is reportedly looking at launch of a porn site to raise money.
Sexploitation in the name of veganism? Right up there with killing people to prevent murder...sometimes I just stare at a story for hours...
Coping: With Online Video Games
Every so often, the question of what's ahead for the world comes up around here and one of the most frequently recurring issues is "What will people do once the internet goes down?"
Although the hopeful answer is Get Local, Get Smart, Get Organized, the more likely answer is that humans will find new and creative ways to waste time.
Not all time wasters are created equal, however. Some of really, really interesting. One of my all-time favorites was an early Macintosh game called "Balance of Power." Published in 1985 this is a marvelous game if you ever get a chance to play.
If you want a good idea for a book to write, try this one on: A history of humans based on the games they were playing at the time.
The basic theme might be "So, you think this is a joke?" and then a review of the various games that were typical of living conditions of people here and there throughout history. I'd buy one of the first copies...
Monopoly is pretty interesting game since it actually has its roots in economics and the rent / single-tax theories of Henry George (and his believers in Georgism, no relation). That game was first published as "The Landlord Game" in 1924 and gained lots of followers in the US during the Great Depression.
All of which is a longish way of getting around to our first major brain-firing of this the morning: The discovery of a dandy online game which may become a kind of "statement of the times" - in game form - much as Balance of Power defined the dangerous balance of the Cold War or the way Monopoly defined an earlier test run of the PowersThatBe.
This one is called Budget Hero, and although it's been out for a while as part of American Public Media's "Engage 08" series, and honestly, I think I did pretty well in my first turn at budget whacking since the game reported:
Mind you, this was my first pass through it.
Given that the economics can actually be penciled out, why all the hijinks in Washington is just beyond me. Math tends to be pretty inflexible stuff.
Still, the point of simulations is that they reach mathematically justified conclusions, unlike the congressional budget process which is, in an odd way, divorced from the reality of math.
Would be kinda cool if a nonpartisan group (Congressional Research Service comes to mind) which would simply attach to any budget bill an updated outcome of the agreed upon financial model.
Of course, that would be too simple. Don't know if you remember the comments last November of once Reagan budget director David Stockman, but there's a high correlation between what he's saying and what we've been saying for a couple of years. Serial bubbles and the whole lot.
"This is about cleaning up the mess, the morning after...."
And if it takes something as clear as a budget "game" scorecard being attached to each Bill in Washington so the weasels at the helm can't say later "Well, I didn't know that would occur..." the proof will be incontestable.
So not only are we living in a kind of Matrix where 95% of people are hypnotized by the non-real righty-left charade, but off in the back room, The Grunch is writing checks like there's no tomorrow.
And on our present trajectory, there won't be. Anyone who has studied Gaming 101 knows that answer.
A Note to the PC Police
A couple of readers sent in notes yesterday accusing me of a racial slur by referring to "a coon's age" as a time reference.
It was not.
Perhaps I should explain that here in the South, especially the rural environs thereof, raccoons were once thought to have a long life. An old raccoon might have lived 15-years or longer. As research later showed, most raccoons don't make it past six months of age, due to the coyotes and other hazards here in the Outback. That's about the last time we had significant rain here in Drought Land.
I've often believed that a writer should reflect their current circumstances and Saturday I spent some time with a couple of friends in the oil industry. Colloquial speech all over the place. Worse, before the storm came through with our much-needed rain, Zeus and Puscilla were fighting on the screen porch with a juvenile raccoon.
Just as in Clif's work where speech tells us what's coming next, so too, the choices of words we each make (and analogies used) will reflect our most recent interactions with the rest of the world.
So, if I lapse into a Southern term here and there, you may properly assume I have been enjoying the company of genuine Southern folk. Similarly, if I fret and stew about financial matters a bit more, it's because the repair bill on the airplane keeps going up. (Another story...).
Going sailing/boating shifts my language a bit, too, arghhhh.
Anyway, that's how brains and language work: Recent influences dictate choices of words. And if you think a coon's age (6-months to whenever) is a racial slur, time to get out of your shell and see the world a bit, bubba. There's three definitions ahead of #4, and I'm too ADHD to make it past #2.
By the way, having live in three of America's four corner areas, and in the middle, too, has been incredibly useful in writing dialog for my great American novel project. Maybe that's why great writers tends to live in many places, or be well-traveled: because depth in language provides better writing.
Typos and proofreading issues aside, of course.
Down At the WuJo: The Bleed-over Future
Since we're skirting around how "things" work, I suppose you have seen some of the recent work suggesting that humans may actually "run" (as in think and live) on a 4-6 second time delayed basis.
A Stanford site has a good discussion of the "specious present" problem here.
You know how the old-fashioned tape recorder worked? Tape moves across a record head and is then played back by the playback head? Well, the 'routing' of temporal perception may be along the same lines.
The key thing, however, is in a tape recorder, the distance between heads and speed of the tape is fixed such that the offset is constant.
Seems it's relatively so, in humans, but not entirely. So it's with some interest in the India earthquake this week that I'm now able to go back to our National Dream Center and look up prescient dreams about earthquakes. Here's one in particular which was posted on March 3 of this year:
So lets look at some of the elements here. Death toll from the quake is up to 83 now, by the way.
So was this "predictive"?
More recently, we have a reader who apparently loses a dog in an upcoming major quake. Not surprising that if there is a strong emotional tie-in that would tend to 'bleed back' into the past a good bit, depending on closeness emotionally receptivity. Either that, or it was a one-week delay on watching an earthquake movie, but maybe not...
A dream in mid July foresees an earthquake in Java/Indonesia that will put Krakatau to shame, but not many hints on timing.
The problem with forecasting earthquakes is you can always make a forecast and always be right.
The Tuesday Funnies
Next time you go out for food...
And from our third layer back-up law firm up in D we received this fine insight to start the day:
I think the old saying is "Your lips to God's ears..."
Monday, September 19, 2011
Ma Nature's Monday
Two biggies this morning, but let's start with the home front development first. It rained in East Texas last night, and depending on where you're talking about, it was a pretty good soaking. We have almost an inch and a half in the rain gauge this morning.
Started around 10 PM when Elaine came in and said "You have to go see the lights off to the northwest..." "Sure it isn't northern lights?" I'd been asleep up till then...
A look outside confirmed that it was lightning off in the distance 330-50 miles northwest and eyes on the NEXRAD showed major cold front was sweeping down from the Dallas area. Outside in a flash to bring down the crank-up ham radio tower which was up at 60-feet. No point inviting the lightning to drop by. By the time the tower was down, the wind from the north had cooled noticeably and by midnight the rain finally showed up in earnest.
The National Weather Service reported their Avalon station showed 2.79 inches, Lake Limestone had 2.53 inches while one Dallas station had 2.33 inches in the 24-hour period ending at 4 AM. Tyler, Texas through midnight had 1.24 inches.
The front has moved down into the Houston area this morning, and by the end of the week, highs will drop below 80 for the first time in a coon's age.
Despite the blessed rain, we still have a ways to go. We're down 17 inches year to date from "normal." Even after the overnight soak.
Shakes and Quakes continue, too. Several people have been killed in that Sikkim, India quake which popped 6.9 on Sunday.
More than one reader sent along a note admitting there may be something to this 188-day quake cycles we talked about last week.
Oh, and a reader sent this, though I don't know how much stock to put in it:
Hopefully that will be a shaking out in markets only. Futures point guess where...
Bot Run Due Tomorrow
But maybe not early in the day...Cliff's still got the space goat stuff to get finished up today... If I tell you "look for smoke," it will make sense when you read the report. Check www.halfpasthuman.com tomorrow.
"Check's in the Mail" Department
It's probably not politically correct to call for drug testing of the entire government of Greece, but when I read headlines like "Greece promises primary surplus in 2012, despite deepening recession" I start asking myself "Are people in Euro really dumber than people here?"
Why, that hardly seems possible, especially after listening to a few minutes of talk radio after the Cowboys win in overtime last night. Same old stuff here in the USA: People have been sliced and segmented into idiots right, idiots left, while the corporations continue fleecing the sheep. A good eye-opener on the real goings on here is the documentary "Casino Jack and the United State of Money" which is making the rounds on NetFlix now.
Notwithstanding comparative voter IQs, we noted this morning that the British market was down about 2%, France was down about 2½% and the Germans were down almost 3%. Yahoo Finance updates the disaster in the works here every couple of minutes.
Not that the US will escape the same fate, particularly come next spring, but I'm going to bite my tongue until the next predictive linguistics report comes out tomorrow (or Wednesday) from www.halfpasthuman.com.
What Kind of Week?
Robin Handler's Options Signal Service, which scored a mighty gain in street creds with last week's spot-on Big Rally Alert we posted, is sizing this week up in three words: "Duck and Cover." Unless you're loaded to the gills on short positions, which I happen to be.
I talked with Robin Landry on Friday and he's still looking pretty much the same direction; what he's telling colleagues in the investment community who follow his work is that we need to get a little further into the current move since there are two possible endings which I think I can summarize this way:
Not that it should be hard to follow along. A more detailed discussion of the possibilities is in the Peoplenomics ChartPack posted Sunday, but you should get the idea here. How hard is "duck and cover" to understand?
As usual, this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE but my personal play money in the market is about 92½ % on the short side at the moment. That remain little bit is to dollar cost average my short cost down a bit in case we don't head down instantly, but a thousand points down before we break out in happy talk hives wouldn't surprise me.
The wild card is that if this is (5) or the larger 1 completing, there's been a tendency in the past 20-years for collapses to happen in the 5th wave down - just like happens often in commodities trading. So we'll just watch, but the headlines were crossing two hours before the open that the "Stock index futures signal sharp losses." Why quick! Look surprised...
The Weak Ahead
Main feature this morning will be the short term bond announcements this morning. Tomorrow's main event will likely be Housing numbers, but more than anything Wednesday will be the pivotal day as the Fed announces it's doing nothing, but the weasel-wording in the announcement of nothing is what will be taking up gallons on ink and pixels.
Thursdays' anagram day: Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) which can be respelled...oh you are awake, aren't you?
Middle East: On Simmer
With more due this week in the debate over a Palestinian homeland, we are pleased to report that so far this morning, things are "normal" in that part of the world:
Hope he's able to tell us when people don't show up for work...that's when I'd start to get worried. You can read about the "fixing to get ready" footwork here.
My Kind of Socialists
Say, here's a dandy one that just might restore some of your faith in "socialists" but not of the Washington stripe: "Dutch Socialist Party has asked the Secretary of the Treasury for the whereabouts of the Dutch Central Bank’s gold."
Question #2 they're asking is particularly good: "Why are gold and gold loans stated as one line item in the annual report 2010 instead of mentioned as 2 separate items? "
Of course, over here in the land of the brave, home of the hidden sausage, we already know the answer to this one. It does make me wonder if there's some kind of a special school banksters and politicos go to where they learn to lie by telling the truth. Depends what you mean by...stuff.
Self Congrats of Tinsel Town
The LA Times has good coverage of the Emmies if you still need it. If someone asks, I simply say Emmy's? Nah.... (say it fast a few times...dare you...)
Coping: With Taxing Thoughts
The report that president Obama is planning a $3-trillion deficit reduction program and that half of it will come from (partially) tax hikes on millionaires essentially, is already being decried as a bad thing in some media. This is astounding.
The New York Post this morning goes to some lengths explaining "How the 'Buffett tax' will kill jobs" but a careful read of the Charles Gasparino (of Fox Business Network) article leaves me scratching my bald spot.
If I follow his logic correctly, Gasparino's main thrust, which comes after six paragraphs of which read like Buffett-bashing, is that if we take money away from the people who still have disposable incomes, then it will only make the jobs situation worse.
Hogwash. Solvent government ain't free, even to the people who've been buying its favors in eBay-like auctions for congressional votes!
For a guy advocating the 'little guy' position, Gasparino's hanging out terms like "class warfare" while describing Buffett as a "limousine liberal" sets off the BS detector.
Economics is pretty simple stuff. All you need to do is extend any argument to the extreme to see how it plays. If the tax rate on the millionaire class is not raised...then we will likely see a further concentration of wealth into the hands of the ultra-rich, and not just Buffett...try the Rothschilds and let's talk real money. Or how's about that off-shore, transnational money...like those newspaper magnates from down under wield.
The US is already up with Greece in terms of accumulated debt to GDP, but even as the foundations of America are creaking under the debt burdens, the corporate media outlets are still razzling and dazzling readers with the myth of republicorps good guys versus democrop bad guys and most talk radio listeners don't have the mental acuity to see through the crap and realize what Buckminster Fuller called "the Grunch of Giants" is really what's behind the clockwork politics run by corporations and the ultra rich that own them.
I am deeply disappointed that the NY Post would publish such an apologist piece that only benefits the richer-than-stink.
If keeping America solvent means the Buff has to ride last year's Gulfstream, oh well.
Unfortunately, since no one is looking at economic reality, the fact of the matter is that there is no longer any economic justification for an exceptionally low capital gains tax. It made sense only so long as there was a shortage of capital formation.
Since wealth concentration in the hands of the rich is at the highest levels in history, don't suppose you've noticed that, but we've got capital in dead pools all over the place. Sucking up interest with virtually no risk, since government is hogtied to write checks to the too big to fail corps.
If the Obama administration had any real balls, they'd end preferential capital gains treatment for the rich and call it what it is: Ordinary income. But since Bucky's The Grunch is writing checks to both groups of poor actors, democorps and republicorps, the bulks of Americans will swallow the swill served up by corporate-owned media which panders to the rich.
'Specially in places like NYC.
If the NY Post was a leader in journalism, they'd be calling out both parties and getting the tide of wealth concentration amongst the rich under control.
Still, I'll keep reading the Post, and similarly superficial politic-selling media which means one of two things:
Oh, wait, who owns the Post?
...and start liqueuring...over at Backdoor Survival Gaye's been working up recipes for turning fresh fruits into whatever people use liqueurs for...toppings on ice cream and such.
Since I've gotten back into flying, blood sugar management has really become something I watch (in addition to blood pressure, etc.) so if alcohol doesn't cook off something, I'm not especially keen on it. Still, I can see where a NYC-style cheese cake with a drizzle of raspberry.....
Time to embrace change. Starting on Wednesday or this week, Peoplenomics is going to a Wednesday/Saturday publishing schedule. I will put up a few headlines on this site on Wednesday, but the main content will be at the www.peoplenomics.com website.
The main reasons for this are two-fold: The first is I have been working 7-days a week for a couple of years now (and no sick time, in case you missed that part) and it would really be nice to have a day off on the weekend to go places, relax, and so forth.
The second reason is that the Wednesday session for subscribers may be a bit more heavily weighted in the direction of financial analysis and net worth protection strategies.
Over time, I'd like to get to a "normal" 5-day a week schedule, but what I'd do with all that play-time isn't clear. But I just know Elaine could come up with something to fill it in, lol.
Note that if you forget to check in here for your daily dose of reality, there's a link up at the top of this page, or just click here, so you can sign up for email delivery of update notices.
Our lil ol Beech will be in the shop all week; turned out that two cylinder heads need to be replaced, not just one that we'd planned on. No biggie since we are planning to do some long-distance traveling and the last thing I want to be doing is flying up over Great Salt Lake enroute Seattle for meetings and have a snarfy engine.
I mentioned this on the Peoplenomics site Saturday and was flooded with (ok, two then) emails explaining how an airplane is like a boat - which is a hole in the sky into which you throw money. Save your pixels.
Dumbest Phish of the Day
Phishing emails are often pretty interesting if you have 2-ounces of economic brainpower. Here's one this morning that has the subject line: Transfer Rejected.
Then it has a copy of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and then it explains:
And the return email was from firstname.lastname@example.org
This does bring us to two important matters: First, the people who sent out this BS crap phishing message should really get some schooling because putting the Fed's name on this automatically makes it suspect.
Two, even if it were from the Fed, they don't have any real money, anyways. It's all just paper, right? Sheesh!
Guess I shouldn't be too harsh on 'em. After all, if they were the really smart criminals, they'd hold office...
The Monday Funnies
A couple of variations of this one have been going around, but this latest retooling is pretty good:
And in our Humor from the Barricades department:
And, the email tagline of the day:
Which may be the best health advice we've seen...
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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