The Site They Don't Want You To Read Which Outs the Big Game.
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Saturday, September 17, 2011 04:55 AM CDT Visit our FAQ
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3. This weekend's focus will be on the arrival of a potentially 'disruptive technology' which is now in plain sight, but only if you know where to look...
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Party on, dudes...
Hyperinflation is Here: 37% Percent Money Printing
I'm going to have to start off with a four letter word this morning, so if you're offended by hard, brutal truth being spoken, then skip this part: New data just posted by the Fed shows we are totally, irrevocably fucked: The Federal Reserve M1 3-month printing rate is up to 36.7 percent annualized!!!! What's more the 3-month M2 printing rate is screaming along up 23.3% basis the three month rate annualized.
Where the hell is our MSM cadre of so-called business reporters and editors when abominations like this are rising up in the economic data? FMTT.
So how did I trip over this undeniable arrival of hyperinflation? Well, I was getting out my calculator out this morning to push out the annualized inflation rate from the Thursday CPI report.
Which compounds to a 4.9% annualized inflation rate. In the rearview mirror it was only 3.8 percent.
Break --full stop.
So I thought I'd look at the M1 and M2 money-printing rates to figure how bad deflation is, since given consumption is flat (everyone I know is broke, or close to it) and Wham! 36.7 percent M1 and 23.3 percent M2. Third world material for sure and an economic Beechslap.
So, what does that make the nominal deflation rate? If actual/reported inflation is 4.9% annualized and M1 is going up 36.7%? Implies a deflation rate of 31.8% which means one more thing:
Even IF the Gross Domestic Product is holding even at $15-trillion (don't hold your breath), the most recent M2 data means (at $9,5449 trillion) means the Velocity of Money is down to 1.5715.
So how much worse is this than the depths of the 2008-2009 period? About four percent worse. Time to apply the ViseGrips with a shot or two of El Don, huh?
Yeah, there's a lot of other news, but its all smoke and bullshit compared to the question of "Where's the money going?"
I'm betting it is buying up our own Treasury bonds, which means - in snake swallowing its own tale fashion - we're past the beginning of the beginning of the end. I'd estimate this puts us about the middle of the beginning of the end. The market crash to follow will be the end of the beginning or Depression Two.
When the next Shape of Things to Come report is issued next week, here's one word to keep firmly in mind: Coagulation. Right here in the once great land of the brave.
Need a bright spot? This is like being on the bow of the Titanic, with our life jackets on and a boat waiting for us even before hitting the iceberg, isn't it?
I assume you saw that manufacturing in the US was dead flat with the CPI: Manufacturing was up 3.8% for the year which sort of dovetails with CPI.
What that finely controlled economic press isn't bothering to point out is that if US mining is up 5.6% and utilities are down 2.4%, where's all that mining output going? Want to be on overseas?
Truth on the Docks
I assume you have been following the Longshoremen's action on the West Coast recently? Ab out 20 arrests in that.
Looking at cargo stats for the month: Long Beach reported inbound was down 14.2% in August, Los Angeles reported August inbound was down 5.75%, byut what's more interesting is exports were up 24.8% at LA and LB was down only 3.8% which is a further hint that some of the US industrial production is going elsewhere.
Port of Seattle was down 25.5% for the month on loaded inbound, while loaded outbound was up about 9.5%. Again, while production figures seem to paint a recovery, we're beginning to look to the docks to reveal a bit more...and the hint is the increase in production is being exported to some extent.
To Market To Market
With the index options safely run up into expiration, we now have signs the market retreat will begin in earnest shortly. Like when the market opens this morning...
People in Haiti are having a little tussle with the UN over how long before the welcome mat wears out. Clashes have been happening there this week.
Then there's the little matter of how the White House allegedly pressured a key US general to change his testimony so as not to interfere with fund raising plans.
President Obama has decided to sell F-16s to Taiwan, in a move that's sure to piss off China. But, if China isn't buying our bonds any more, since we're probably buying our own, I suppose it doesn't matter. Except it does create jobs in the death industries.
And while the Sand Box wars continue to look like a never-ending series of clusterf*cks, we continue to be guided by former General Wesley Clark's 2007 comments, in which he spells out how the hijacking of America's foreign policy took place. Wonder how many of the architects of that policy-jack hold other passports than American? I know, not PC to ask such things.
But, whatever, this hijacked American foreign policy will be in play again as the Palestinian home state issue comes up at the UN next week.
If your only sources of opinion-forming is American biased/hijacked corp media you area victim of your own ignorance. I'll use former four-star general input over the MSM any day, thanks..
Higher Ed Game Changing
As a former vocational college campus director, I have been waiting for this story to pop up a long, long time. But here - at last - in The Chronicle of Higher Education is the report that's long overdue: "Major Publishers Joing Indian U. Project that Requires Students to Use E-Textbooks."
Not that this will change everything overnight...it won't. But, what it is a step toward is the high ed industry getting taken down a notch, since while there are costs associated with keeping textbooks current, we don't have to live in a world of $200 textbooks.
Oh, don't worry, though, I'm sure the big textbook outfits will find some way to jack up prices again...oh, and increase their margins, and reducing costs & employee head counts, too.
Speaking of education and such, also check out the Thursday article in the Harvard Business Review a bout how the pending "U.S. patent Overhaul Won;t help Innovators."
Jeez, Louise, no, we can't be helping protect innovators in the midst of a freaking Depression, can we? As the HBR notes, it will turn us from a "first to invent" to a "first to file" country. Easy for third world s.h.'s to back date, I reckon. Sweet deal for lawyers and drives a silver stake through "prior art", doesn't it?
Things like the web bot project which has turned into a patent festival and we've got prior art going back to 1997...gag me.
Quakes and Shakes
OK, so I get this email about quake timing:
NSS! I suppose that 7.3 yesterday down in Fiji fills the bill. And what about this email from a reader this morning in St. Louis?
Naw...nothing to it. BUT, if St. Louis sinks into the Mississippi today, I'll admit to being wrong. Still we are near enough that 188 day periodicity to make one wonder, huh?
More after this...
Coping: Adventures in Publishing
I'm about going blind proofreading the new book "Never-ending Argument" with co-author Howard Hill. Book's done except for two ugly details:
The first 'little ugly' is the matter of proofreading. Being more than slightly attention deficit, I figure if I've kept focus long enough to get some coherent words down on paper that make sense, that should be all there is to it.
Sadly, I'm discovering Howard was right when he told me up front that writing a book it only part of the task.
The bigger task is making it right by proofreading and getting tracking just so... something any reader of this column knows causes an anaphylactic reaction in me. Even running a spell-checker causes me great consternation and anguish, and the whole matter is made ever-so-much worse coming from a broadcasting background.
You see, in my early days of radio news, I wasn't a very good typist. I could maybe hammer out 35-words per minute on the old Remington. (We'll leave the notion that Remington made guns, shavers, and typewriters for another discussion.) Back in the day, as a young newsman, I would sweat and fret for a solid 50-minutes each hour to prepare for a simple five-minute newscast.
The occasional typo was corrected on the fly while reading aloud, which is what radio newsies do. Consequently, my typing didn't get much better.
It did get a lot faster though.
I don't know if you realize it, but UrbanSurvival and the mirror site ( www.indepencejournal.com ) plus the blog version of this site (if you like that look better) are all cranked out in about 2-hours thirty minutes every morning. I start writing at 5 AM, but by the time of my trip to the throne room (5:37 plus or minus two minutes), a nibble at the fridge, refill or two on the coffee, and scratching Zeus the Cat a bit to shut him up, there's about 2½ hours of actual on-task in one of these missives.
What helped my writing output immensely was the advent of the IBM Selectric typewriter in the newsroom. Instantly, my typing speed jumped from 60-words per minute (I could type in time with the old AP teletype) to about 100 words per minute because the equipment could do better at keeping up with the brain.
With my first copy of Ashton-Tate's Multi-Mate word processing software, my typing speed caught up with my thinking speed, about 110 words per minute (on a good day with a tailwind).
Still, throughout much of this, accuracy didn't matter too much: The material I was writing became second nature thanks to my discovery of the "fill-in-the-blanks news story" concept. There's only so many ways a fella can say "_____people died in a car accident at _____this afternoon. Police still have streets in the area blocked while they continue their investigation..."
Once the "fill-ins" became obvious, the next step was learning to simply 'tell" the news in a conversational style, which meant by the time I'd been doing radio for 10-years I could do a fairly good newscast with only the odd note on a piece of drop-in sound (an 'actuality' in newsroomese) telling me the length of the audio cut at the out cue (last thing on the tape so you can resume without a huge gap.
Gaps, also called dead-air, were the bane of AM radio and I discovered that pausing between words for dramatic effect that will often cause program directors to come running into the newsroom after a newscast griping "Can you make your dramatic pauses a little shorter? I thought we were off the air..."
Most civilians don't like to know this part, but as long as we're lifting the skirts on the MSM just a tad, in the industry it's an acknowledged fact that news directors (I were one, lol) are all about directing since the news is performed by on air talent. Although, that last word is debatable, since most newsies turn into raving ego maniacs with any kind of ratings success. Going from talent to star takes one Arbitron (or Nielsen) rating book.
Long way of giving you the flavor of it, but in radio and television (and a good slice of print writing) the existence of the Chicago Manual of Style is mythos right up there with Unicorns and the legends of the lost continent of Mu.
Proofreading is something done only by the most retentive of writers.
Having suffered through the anguish of reading (so far) 158 pages of my own writing, I'm becoming somewhat sympathetic to what you, as a reader, must go through.
Howard, by the way, tends to actually proof as he goes, which is why his blog over at Mind on Money may have fewer typos than here, about 100 percent of the time.
If you want to really understand what is happening to the global economy, Howard's two most recent posts, "Forward Settlement - of Ideas" and "De-Levering for a Lifetime" are really, really good. Not happy, I didn't say that. Just timely and accurate.
Now that we've beaten "typos and where they come from" into the ground, the second problematic detail about our book writing is this: Finding a publisher.
Never-ending Argument is really good, not that I wouldn't stoop to such shameless self-assessment, mind you, but that's the consensus of the few civilians who have had a look at it.
What we do need is a little bit of help right now. Once I work through my new lifetime collection of typos, we're going to need a publisher.
The problem we've run into is that most publishing agents seem to be in their 40's and have not figured out how to call people back on the phone.
We've talked about the phenomena as being possibly age-drive since both of us are over 50. I think our working conclusion is that there's a group of middle=-aged people in the world, between 35 and 50, who never call people back.
You either get lucky and get them on the first try, or their gatekeepers (assistants and office staff) will blow you off forever. "May I say who's calling?" usually results in being placed on ignore.
In your travels in life, if you happen to have run across a publisher/agent who might be interested in a really good popular economics book with lots of smarts and humor in it and which does so in a perky style with resigned read times of 20-minute chapters (19 of them) please send me their contact info.
If you'll do that, I promise to report back on whether they have "Can't-call-backitis disease."
Our dialing for dollars exercise may have accidentally led to our discovery of yet another reason that America's standard of living is slipping below the horizon: The near total disappearance of the courtesy of callbacks even though both Howard and I really can "man up" and take any kind of bad news. It's becoming the really rude pricks (and prickettes) who don't call back that bother us: Boardroom material, and corpgov minions-in-training seem to be popping up all over the place.
Next thing you know, HR will start screening for it: "Have you ever called anyone back in a timely manner?" If you answer "Yes" there goes your ap into the round file. This is already be used in NYC publishing, or so it's starting to seem. I know India and the Philippines are on it in their call centers, too.
Pet Theory #791: There would be no self-publishing industry except that the old-style publishers got to be so uppity, in-bread, and prickish. But you knew that.
Amish Carts and Slow Signs
Several readers took me to task for my lack of experience driving around the Northeast in the dark. Guilty as charged.
This...and several other notes telling me of the dangers of driving wagons on highways at night has convinced me.
As a result of my enlightenment on this, I'm now asking the Texas legislature to require the posting of said orange triangles on all deer and wild pigs in the Republic, too. I'm not aware of any deaths being caused by drivers running into wagons in Texas, but the paper is regularly littered with hog and deer accidents.
We have to get government to address the right problems, is how I see it.
In fact, I'm planning to start up a reflective deer tag, homing device. and RFID unit. It would let you see deer a long ways off, you could find that price 12 point with a small homing device and an online database of the animal's age and gender...yes, I think this is just what America needs: fresh industry.
It would take China at least 3-months to catch up, wouldn't it?
"Checkers" the plane is down in Mark the Mechanic's shop at Crockett, Texas while we continue our experiment to see if owning a small aircraft really induces near death experiences in back accounts. The ride down yesterday was a bit lumpy and the video wasn't particularly good. I need to make a seat back mount for the Flip Video and see if there's a way to pipe our sound bus on the plane into the camera.
One piloting note from a well-informed reader:
I'll go you one better. I'm cowardly. One of the best life extension programs ever. Hung up motorcycles after 70,000 miles for the same reason I walk out of casinos as soon as I'm a couple of hundred bucks ahead. Law of Large Numbers gets us all; but it takes longer to round up cowards.
Around the Ranch
With the airplane down, Elaine has pulled out the home version of the airplane squawks list. I get the plane back next week, assuming her list is done. Seems fair, her list is a lot cheaper, except maybe the bids on a new roof.
Coming up, an analysis of a new and potentially job disrupting technology, coming soon to a world near you on Peoplenomics this weekend
Next week, we'll be trying our our publishing schedule: Wednesday morning columns will be posted only on the Peoplenomics.com site. Peoplenomics will then publish the usual in-depth Sunday piece on Saturday and as a result of all the changes, I may actually get a day off.
The Friday Finny After This...
The Friday Funny
Reader supplied humor seems to be gun safety related this morning:
I figured this one out without help: A rural Pennsylvania drive-by.
And last, and turns out least...
Where were we? Oh yeah...
Reader Action Department:
Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers & S/w and outdoor gear.
Now on our premium content site: Peoplenomics.com
A Vision and People Skills for the Second Depression
Two items on the agenda for this weekend, and due to the nature of both, we won't have as many links to off-site sources, since this is is more of a 'visioning' exercise for the coming fall, rather than a hard and fast economic conclusion: It's about developing a Big Picture of what's going on, along with some interesting speculations. First we'll consider what the breakdown could look like and then address issues related to managing other humans in what could be the highest stress period in more than a century.
Computer cookies have a purpose in life - they facilitate things like online banking and stock trading. But there's a vicious side to them: They can be used to track your web use without you even knowing about it. And even more dangerous are the 'cross site' cookies which can install malware on your computer without you ever knowing it.
The answer? Maxa Cookie Manager, MCM.
Take it for a free test drive by clicking here - and it you like it, activation is easily done. If you're a heavy web user (who ain't?) you may find like I do that you've accumulating a hundred or more cookies per day. Only a handful need to be white-listed, like your brokerage account or your bank. The rest? Software designed to spy on you that robs you of computer performance. Been using it for several years and pleased as the Dickens with it.
The "Do Drop Inn"
Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com. And remember our saying at MyGroPonics: It's OK to be a vegetable...
Post your weird dreams to help our research along into what goes on at night in people's heads: www.nationaldreamcenter.com
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Mr. Bear Goes Short Again
As we told you earlier this week, when we posted that advisory from Robin Handler's Options Signal Service, when the Dow had closed at 11,061 and before the market opened, we were due for a good-sized upward pop into options expiration. And now, here we are up- 185 from there, but intraday Wednesday we were up as much as 325 points. Not a bad call, huh?
Still, sensing the end of the Bull Run was near, I waded back in on the short side about mid-session yesterday after asking myself "What could possibly go wrong now?"
Funny you should ask:
So, no, I don't expect there to be much going on till later, but once we get past options expiration today and tomorrow, things are poised for another big downturn, at least that's where I've got my money, for now....subject to change without notice, of course.
Asia was up overnight, and this morning Europe is up, too. But can it hold past the options run-up? We shall see...
Sun /Quake Stuff
Say, I know there may not be anything academically blessed and proven, and such, but here we go: A Solar Presto Alert at the same time as a decent-sized quake: Presto alert first:
And right next to this in the "I-Ching Inbox was the latest New Zealand region earthquake - a 6.0 on the north island overnight.
And there was a 6.0 down in the Caribbean north of Jamaica...
Jamaica regional quakes are of particular interest for three reasons: First, I lived on Grand Cayman for a couple of years, second because I have relatives there now, and third because being well-read in pirate lore, the 1692 Port Royal quake was a fascinating event.
Oh, let's not overlook the 6.2 off Japan, too.
The simple (yet unblessed) thought keeps coming back to this: Since we know that mass can convert to energy (Nagasaki and Hiroshima showed that worked) it stands to reason around here energy can create mass as well, meaning Einstein opened a two-way street with his thinking. This may be what's going on with strange actinics from the Sun.
Rent me a university for a couple of months and I can prove anything. And with some lobbying dough, I could probably get "sun goes around the earth" peer reviewed favorably, too... peer review being a variant of group-think and such...
Not a UFO, But....
A reader up in Las Vegas sent a picture of snow/hail which fell on September 11th.
Winter is over just this week in Edmonton, Alberta, which besides being where my older sister lives is also where the last of the snow just melted.
Scattered showers are popping up in Texas this morning...woke up to thunder about midnight realizing the 60-foot ham radio tower/lightning rod was still up....no hits, though.
Tyler, Texas had a whopping 0.02" of rain before midnight, but that still leaves the area with 12.85 inches so far for the year. "Normal" - wherever that went, is 30.93 inches by now...
Texas Fire Follow-Up
Got this from a reader down in the area of the Bastrop (TX) wildfire...bit long, but good insight into the disaster and what it's like to live through....
'preciate the report and yep, more government isn't necessarily better government, fo sho.
You KNOW the World Is Crazy When, Dept.
OK, most peaceful, harmonious group of people I can think of, non-native sort, are the Amish. And what's going on in Kentucky? Eight Amish men are in jail after refusing to pay fines for not putting orange safety signs on their horse-drawn rigs.
Which are you going to see farthest away: a 12" triangle, or an 18-hands horse pulling a big wagon. You don't really need to noodle that one, do you?
Coping: The End of "Vacations" Next
The American labor scene continues to get uglier and uglier. First it was the mass layoffs, then came "unpaid internships" where people get hoaxed by greedy/cheap employers into working free to demonstrate their "loyalty" and "work ethic".
Now, with the following first-hand reader report, we can add another benchmark: Getting fired for taking a vacation!
Prefect attitude. Universe ultimately gives everyone exactly what they need here on classroom/prison Earth, I reckon.
But obviously with all the corporate jobjacks to third world shitholes, in order to continue the concentration of wealth into the greedy mits of the already rich, it had to come to this.
So while all the high falutin talk about a new Jobs Bill is going on in Washington, it'll just be a new and improved way to give money to Big Corporations and not to us "little people". And, as this report indicates, we don't just work for jobs in America, we also work for vacations and any employer who fires people just back from vacation goes onto my corporate shit-list.
It's now 227 volumes of 400+ pages each. And growing....
Those "Men on the Moon"
Every once in a while, in our WuJo reports we come across items that just don't seem to fit right and we get tips, some of which make sense, particularly about a 'special' way to modulate organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) in order to....er....adjust space-time a bit.
So what happens next month? New movie is coming out called Lunopolis...and if you want to have some fun, check out the trailer for it here.
Yeah, yeah, far out, off-the-wall shit, right?
Hate to burst your bubble and all but no, there's something to it.
Don't know if you have been following this (you should!) but here's a story about how certain 'no fly zones' are being put into effect over the moon(!).
Conspiracy types are abuzz with purported 'new video' which its claimed show a mile-long spacecraft on the back side of the moon, but we'll just hold back a bit on reaching conclusions, since CGI has reached such a high level of art.
On the other hand, NASA reports there are rare silicate type volcanoes on the dark side of the moon, but the conspiracy types think it's just another pretext for more cover-up.
All of which would be where it stopped, except for the matter of the Titov crater 'square' which has been circulating for a bit more than a year - video here.
A home science project for you: See if Google has 'covered' anything on the moon...that would be interesting, if you don't have anything better to do at the moment. (I'm all loaded down with work, projects, thanks.)
Curiously, NASA put out a press release back in 2000 about "Square Craters" being found on asteroid 433 Eros, so I'm not getting too worked up over some civilization before us going to the Moon.
One of our sources tells us that some new HD video of 'spectacular" backside of the Moon is out with that mile-long craft showing clearly, but I haven't been able to find it yet. So, if you know where it is, please send along a link. source is good...
Meantime, I'm waiting for Lunopolis to hit - should be great fun with only one small nag: How much of it is fiction and how much is 'real'...whatever that means anymore?
So we just sit waiting for the fake alien invasion to come along, with a few clues about things from reading odd articles like this one...
Thinking Tool of the Day: Extranalities
Say, here's a dandy word for you to study up on, since it figures heavily in modern denial. Got wind of it through a reader email:
Thinking Tool #2
They seem to be spilling out of the Inbox this morning:
Problem is....what if it already is too late?
Ham Radio Disease
More talk about the symptoms of Ham Radio Disease in the wake of G2's getting his Extra Class:
And then there's this fellow who figured out how to use APRS technology (automatic packet reporting system) with his airplane...
Well, yes, I had thought about that - along with some other airborne ham radio ideas. For example, I thought about leaving the ADF antenna post in place and installing a short wire antenna (15 feet, or so, have to measure) and doing aeronautical mobile, which is just the thing for the terminally attention deficit.
Why, imagine the thrill (or is it pilot workload?) flying on instrument rules, taking direction from ATC, doing old school VOR navigation and working a contest on 20-meter sideband. Now you're talking processor load...
But, seriously, except for long cross-country flights, there's already a decent load on the aircraft audio chain: dual nav/coms plus the collision avoidance system beeping now and then. Besides, it'd be too tempting to get off course: To I keep the plane on the GPS heading or do I turn 45º off heading to to better orient the antenna topside to pull out that rare DX station? You can see how ham radio could interfere with minor details of flying...like getting to where you're going.
If I can lay my hands on one of our Flip videos, I will try and product a short video on this morning's ferry flight down to Mark the Mechanic's place.
Rumor Control Center - Not!
Readers with open eyes report:
Hmmm... Want a crackpot theory? And only that... maybe they're working on short field landings so that when New Madrid goes off ( or a near-passing space object sets off massive volcanism) so they can still find a runway...just guessing, mind you...either that, or it's just fun to shoot landings in a 747 when someone else is footing the fuel bill?
The Thursday Funny
And since I'm flying this morning, the definition of an airplane crash is what?
But the absolute worst joke of the day is this one:
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
As the Standard of Living Sets.....
The US Census is telling us stuff we already knew, but when it comes in a PowerPoint people don't seem to doze off as fast as when it comes along as raw data. Certainly seems to be the case with the latest "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance" report released Tuesday. One main feature? One person in 6.6 is in poverty. Oh, one other thing: Our standard of living is heading guess which way?
2010 was the third year in a row poverty was up.
I've told you I don't know how many times: Toss the partisan political crap out and try to stay focused on the real problems of the economy.
So even on the best of good days, we can round off to 12 million people actually making things and 48-million in in poverty, right? That's one worker for each four people in poverty.
Oh, for all the whining the union-busting politicos do, there are only 16.29 million union workers in the whole country! Last time I checked, the financial services people didn't bring in the 40-hour workweek, did they?
But here's the simple point: We live in a world where the business model in charge is the constant growth model. Logically, it has to end.
So as we approach the limits of this balloon being blown up, just try to keep in mind, all business models fail in the end; drive off by technology, automation, change in consumption patterns, wars, and so forth. This one has been a great ride.
Like the 8-second ride of a wild Brahma, now we have the problem of getting off this here bronc without getting killed or blowing up the world. Should be interesting to watch. Oh, and the politicos and bankster class? Those would be the rodeo clowns...the word rodeo being optional, of course.
August Feral Budget Report
Everything you need to know about government in a single graphic:
PPI, PP Owe
And a yippy ki yi yay get along little prices...
"Hey! Ure! Where all the inflation if the money is screaming off the presses?"
The deflation monster is eating it, look under the bridge...er...data.
Yes, I blew out of my short position in the pre-open yesterday and sho' 'nuff by the time the market closed, we'd had the first part of the Big Rally into options expiration this week. More due today. Ya'll just run it way up today, please, Mr. Bear will be in his office this afternoon ready to buy for the collapsing part next week.
That the Fed has been pushing money out at a 22.6% annualized rate for the past three months (M1) and 15.6% (M2) is to my way of thinking what's helping the markets prevent total self-destruction. What fascinates me is the number of reports like this one: "Hope for Greek debt progress lift world stocks."
Speaking of rallies, though, I see where the German market was up 2.34% early this morning. So much for "soured Krauts." But speaking of which...
The symbols of the world interest me no end. And this morning we see how Germany's EU commissioner is asking that the Irish flag be flown at half mast at EU facilities.
I could be wrong about this, but isn't this the same as kicking someone when they are down? Clearly this German dude has not learned about "forgive and forget" no doubt because they don't like being stuck with the tab for Greece. Get over it. besides, this kind of uppity crap doesn't play well with those who read history, especially since some of us read about WW II and who was doing what. Is there like a moralizer gene there, or what?
Curious Quake Files
No doubt the question you're asking about that earthquake overnight in south-central Illinois (only a 2.7) is "How close is that to New Madrid?"
152 miles, plus or minus a poddy stop.
A 5.9 off Valparaiso, Chile is only of interest if you happen to live there, or anywhere around the Pacific Plate.
County Default Watch
Still wondering if Jefferson County, Alabama will be the first county to go toes up (other phrases if you please). Financial strain mounts, though we try to avoid talking about straining too much at this hour.
Next Week's War
Heard from a source that Turkey is telling its naval units to "disable" Israeli ships as we're hearing that in Turkish language publications there are reports on the naval rules of engagement leaking out.
Enjoy the rally while it lasts, which won't be too much longer....
The Moody's Blues
At the risk of sounding redundant: Enjoy the rally while it lasts, which won't be too much longer....
You can say that again....
Coping: Ham Radio Disease
Most important thing this morning is to congratulate my son, George II, on passing his Amateur Extra Class ham license last night.
As I've said before, ham radio is a progressive disease. Some of the earliest symptoms include idly dialing across the AM radio band while on a long drive at night. "Wonder where THAT station is...." This is just one of the earliest symptoms.
As the disease progresses, you might have picked up one of those old shortwave radios that pop up in garage sales, every so often. Stage Two of the disease is turning across the shortwave bands thinking "Wonder where THAT station is..."
At this point, the disease is still treatable. An attractive member of the opposite sex, for example, can still carry on a conversation with you.
One thing leads to another, usually a local ham radio club which you can find by wandering around the ARRL website ( http://www.arrl.org ) and most clubs have 'one day Tech class' licensing events.
The day finally arrives when your 'ticket' has been earned, you get a 2-meter handytalkie and something happens, the disease leaps to an almost Turette's-like "Wonder if I can WORK that station..."
Here, the disease can take one of several courses, often all:
Eventually, though, all roads lead to HF - High Frequency bands. This is where the art and science is going on 24/7 - the bouncing of signals around the world using voice, digital, and video modes. To get to this part, there's a harder test called the General Class.
Eventually - in the worse cases of the disease - you start listening for really rare DX (distant) stations in the less crowded parts of the band reserved for holders of Amateur Extra Class licenses.
While the Technician Class can be taught in a day, an Extra Class isn't quite so easy. You can take some practice tests over at eHam.net here.
Just to give you a comparison of skill levels, a typical Tech license test question might be something like this:
What does the abbreviation "RTTY" stand for?
The correct answer is B.
Now here's a typical Extra Class question:
What does a third-order intercept level of 40 dBm mean with respect to
(I'm not telling you, that would spoil the fun of learning...or I ...er...forgot...hmmm....)
One of the cornerstones of thinking in the Ure clan has been the notion that people really reveal themselves by what they do when no one is around watching. Like honesty - people are, or aren't - and the test is again, what happens when no one is around.
If you want to lead a really interesting life, you're well advised to get into subject areas where there's a lot of brain use. Tends to sort people out into the kind that are interesting. People who sit on the couch and that's it? Please...
On the other hand, people that do any mind-engaging pastime tend to smarter than the rest of humans. Go look at your resume: Most resumes include an interests/hobbies reference. Ask yourself "Does this hobby I list here really show what kind of person I am?" Hobbies that require significant brainpower always floated up to the top of the potential hiring stack when I was doing hiring.
I can teach specific skills, I can't teach anyone how to be smart.
G II just documented "smart" again on his resume. And this morning, ought to be about like a private phone line from East Texas to Seattle on the lower end of the 20-meter phone band.
Glad To Help
My consigliore called Tuesday to thank me for running through the 'squawks' list on our airplane. Made a good observation, too: "Next time I think I want to own a plane, I'll just reread that column," he explained. "You have no idea how much money you're saving people with articles like that..."
I'm learning, trust me. Puts a second layer of meaning into "He who pays the Piper..." for you, does it?
Another pilot writes in:
Agreed on the flying boat anchor, and maybe next year we will get something faster, but for being a great time-builder, cheap, tough-as-nails, hard to beat the old Beech. About 8.5 gallons per hour and none of the expenses that go with constant speed props and retractable gear. Keep in mind that our old Beech was only $20K whereas a well-equipped Mooney is more like $35-45K. More expensive annuals and so forth. Still happy, and tomorrow morning's column will be early so I can ferry "Checkers" down to Mark the Mechanic's shop for "the the treatment'.
Then I get to Beechslap the checkbook....
Wednesday Funny: And Oldie Updated
This one has been tweaked a bit:
But wait! We have a "Little Larry" entry on point:
You sure that was Little Larry, not little Timothy?
OK, one more Little Larry and then you have to go be a wage slave, OK?
The Larry behind these Little Larry stories seems to be working on a novel here, but the best part may be this quote worth hanging on to:
Provided you pay your taxes, and visit here daily, of course. Otherwise, we'll have to turn you in.
Don't just stand there smiling, go do something. Even if it's wrong and I'm sure someone tell you it is....
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Is China's Bubble Bursting?
Hearing some interesting - unconfirmed - things about China here lately. One is that people are not being allowed to take gold out of the country. Whether true is of little consequence, but more interesting and definable is that China's markets are taking a big dumperoo: Down another 4.21% last night and the Hang Seng is in imminent danger of penetrating the psychologically key 19,000 level.
Or, more correctly, it actually has taken out 19,000 intraday (during trading) but didn't close under that level.
"OK, so why is this bad and scary?"
Well, if you have read Bob Prechter's book on Elliott Wave Theory you would recognize that the Chinese market peaked (see chart here) in late 2007. Fine, not biggie so far.
But then look how it declined into the February-March period of 2009 when the whole world was in trouble.
If you've had enough coffee, store this data point in your head: China's Elliott Wave 1 down was about 20,614 points.
After the lows in early 2009, China like the rest of world (ROW) rallied nicely to 24,468.64 in April of this year. From the 2009 lows, this was a rally of 13,124.06.
Sip the coffee, another number: Move 1 down: 20,000 points, rally up? 13,000. A 63.66 percent rally...which is close enough to a perfect Fibonacci 61.8% rally to work for me. All normal (whatever that is) stuff.
But now let's assume that the rest of this works out in typical Elliott wave fashion: As such, the third wave down is always bigger than the first wave down, which means what? It means the Chinese market could be heading for a low of....(nitro pill ready?).... 3,854.81.
That's the best case under Elliott: a Hang Seng of 3,855. The worst case would be horrific: A negative number, which infers the end of trading, thank you very much, have a nice day.
I'm not saying this couldn't turn around and become another up move. But what I am saying is that we need to watch China closely in coming months because once the old lows from 2009 are taken out, that sets up a whole world decline to new lows which - in effect - means the collapse of global financial hegemony by corporations. And that's gonna be ugly.
Look for a sharp rally today and tomorrow, says a note from Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service sent me this:
Our usual "This is not financial advice" disclaimer applies, but a big rally into expiration this week isn't out of the realm of possibility - nor is a major dump when someone besides us starts to notice China and the big flushing sounds.
Not sure if I will click out this morning or not, don't want to miss the downside boat.
Import prices were down a bit in the latest report out this morning..."
There's a word for this - and you may not like it: Deflation.
So maybe down this morning, then up this afternoon and Wednesday? Hmmm...sharpening my darts seems like a worthwhile project today.
Investigative Heads Up
Say, won't go into too much here (for now) but you might want to scroll over to the right when you put in this Google Trend lab search and do a little reading. Whether it's any more than noise, again, time will tell.
Remember several reports back in the Shape of Things to Come reports we were chatting about "droolers" - people who would be basically sick and need assistance to just get along? Well, says an alert reader, might want to go read the BBC story on how "'Wi-fi refugees' shelter in West Virginia mountains."
I'll just keep working under my double layers metal roof with tinfoil hat on, thanks.
Minnesota Fires Report
First hand reader report here:
Zeus lifts a paw back and pushes a mouse your way as thanks.
And the Price of Freedom is....
...$500,000 each if you're a hiker and get picked up by Iran and want to get the hell out.
Coping: With "Dialing In" Periods
As any long-time reader of this site knows, I've led a kind of "do everything" life, at least more than most people. Especially when it comes to hobbies which so far has included long-distance bike riding, shooting, woodworking, metal working, fishing, archery, ham radio, music production, electronics repair, interior decorating/design, reading, sailing, flying, living on a boat (different than sailing!) and so forth. Writing is a great one, too, since I love writing and it's why I'm able to crank out columns at the drop of a hat: It's not work, it's play. But I drift.
Beneath is all is a very human joy that comes from doing something. Doing anything well, especially when there's no one breath down your neck and you get something out of it is really about as good as it gets - right up there with contemplating a great vista in Nature, or just sitting back and drinking in the beauty and complexity of life.
Flying, which I've gotten back into recently, turns out to have its own little set of "issues" on the maintenance side, which I was expecting, but now thaty I've been flying the plane a bit and making up a list of items, I thought I'd share the "Squawks List" since I'll be dropping "Checkers" off at Mark the Mechanic's hangar" tomorrow morning is current schedules hold.
Turns out, when you buy an airplane there are lots of little details on an older plane that need attention. Not that this comes as any surprise, since I had budgeted a couple of grand for just this purpose, and whether it's a plane, RV, or fishing boat, if you buy it used there's bound to be a long punch list of tweaks and changes you'd want to make to get things "just so."
While I go on (semi-eloquently, I hope) about the joys of flying, which is all true, there's also the paperwork and preparing to save all that time which an airline can once all the "dialing in your way" has been completed. I've put in explanatory notes (designed with *) for the non-aviator.
* Checking the alignment of "the rigging" is about like balancing and rotating tires in a car and doing a wheel alignment.
If the plane it "out of rig' it flies fine, and all, but with hands off may fall out of trim and into a gentle falling turn, this direction, or that. So, the only what to fix it is to go through an agonizingly long set up.
The good news is that it can add 5 MPH (or more!) depending on how 'out of rig' the airplane is. Mine falls off to the right and the aileron requires constant (but really minor) attention.
Just like a car out of alignment can look like its going going down the road dog-legged or slightly sideways, an aircraft can to the same thing. Technically, it's called "Slipping" and it's commonly used to drop altitude when (like me) you're too lazy to use flaps. It's also the process used for cross-wind landings. Step on rudder, apply opposite aileron and the plane flies sideways (straight along the runway heading) countering the cross wind.
* Windshield has a few dings, and the caulking around the windows is lumpy/bumpy and is maybe a one knot airspeed issue.
* Engine is NOT burning oil - which is just plain weird. Just sits at 6 quarts...not complaining. See www.avblend.com for details on the additive - which I'm a huge fan of.
Like I said, nothing is terribly spendy and nothing is a no-go items per the regs, but if you can pick up maybe 5-10 MPH more over the ground speed, and do so for maybe under 1 airplane unit (which like 1 boat unit is a $1,000 bill) why not?
Even though aircraft are highly regulated, inspected annually, and so forth, there's always this "dialing in" process. Once dialed, things should hang together nicely.
Seems like every 'toy' I've ever had has some kind of dialing in. My first Porsche 911 needed carb balancing ($600 for the tuning and dyno time in about 1980 dollars). My sailboat needed some work on keel bolts, standing rigging...well, you know how boats are holes in the water into which you throw money, right?
Even ham radio gear, fresh out of the box requires hours and hours of instruction manual reading to figure out what the hell were those people thinking when they designed the onboard computer to do this (or that) with this incomprehensible set of keystrokes?
So next time I write something about how glorious this, or that, about flying is, remember that's after serious attention to detail...and like fishing, hunting, or any other sport, what you get out of it is partly the man or woman that goes into it, plus two other little items:
Time and money.
This from Stu at http://www.theageofdesolation.com/ site where Nostradamus (and more) is served:
Interesting you'd ask, Stu...the dude in North TX wrote in that he couldn't see it last night, so it may have been falling space-junque...just don't know how all that works. North start seemed to be in place overnight, however. That's a bit reassuring...
On the other hand, got this from our Tokyo reader:
High strangeness, eh? What was it about comets and wars?
The Tuesday Funny
From a reader who's also called "Okie" by his friends...
Will do...except we're not getting much for our Joke of the Day here.
Say, you don't suppose it's because nothing is funny anymore, do you?
Monday, September 12, 2011
Party Bear''s Bear Party
Cool: 200 down or more today in the Dow may be in the cards. But what kind of a sick puppy would revel in rioting in Greece and collapsing global markets? Why, that'd be....uh...me! Look, not to say I told you so, but has the Shape of Things to Come (predictive linguistics) been screaming about seat belts in here, or not? If you read between the lines and went to cash and bonds with your retirement dough, good for you. We don't offer advise, but I do talk about what we've done. And I stayed short over the weekend. Today, and maybe through part of tomorrow, you'll see why.
That said, if one more person sends me a link to the BBC story about how a "Supercomputer predicts revolution" I'm gonna barf...this is 13-year old technology, we're being ripped on the web bot project, for crying out loud. New bot run will be out next week, by the way - so just send a copy to the OSI project and whoever these other Johnny-come-lately types are that seem to be piling on. Sheesh!
So here we are...it's September and markets look like crap. I'm guessing 10,400 to 9,600 for this leg down, then a bounce and then down again - and much farther.
Still, I shouldn't be too pissy about this, with the play money portfolio up about 36% since the first of the year, but may be able to tack on another 5% today. We'll see, but a low around 10,400 (or lower) tomorrow would fit the libretto to a T.
So, who are today's bleeders in the economic trauma ward? We might start off with the Chinese Hang Seng which was down 4.21 percent overnight. bummer, dudes.
And in Europe this morning, when I looked, the French CAC-40 index was also down more than 4 percent. Sucks to be the German DAX today, too, down to 5,024 and change when I looked and you know the 5,000 level is terribly important to them.
One reason why? Germany is about to have to own up to owning a lot of Greek debt which is blowing up and 5,000 is not likely to hold. With some of the Greek paper yielding 60% this is a real chance of a lifetime for EU junk bond investors, which I'm not one of for two simple reasons: I don't have that much testosterone and I have too much common sense.
The Weak Ahead
Not much going on yet, besides looking at the futures... Tomorrow we get import and export prices (try to stay awake through that). In the afternoon the fiction writers gather at Treasury to be entertained with the budget update. Producer Prices due Wednesday same days as retail sales.
The biggie this week is Thursday as the Consumer Price Index is put up. This one is always fun to watch because the talking-head economists will wax on about "core rate" - the cost increases in pretty much everything but food and energy. They'll then reassure us how everything is OK on the inflation front.
As long as you don't drive, heat your home, use electricity, or eat.
Not like it's just the Greeks to blame (having run up their national debt to roughly the same fraction of GDP as our own). Italy is in trouble too, and yields are up there as the Italians are trying to find a work around for their own home-grown implosion.
Linguistically, we still have the action at the Vatican to come, as I read it, so this should be interesting to watch.
Swiss stocks have been sliding ever since last week when the gnomes apparently put a couple of hits of windowpane in their water and decided to support the Euro with both arms. Prior to that, investors who aren't idiots had been buying the Swiss franc. Now, they're getting left holding the bag.
And we're seeing our long-awaited flight to Nordic country currencies which - I told you what...a year or so ago - our source close to the PTB said some of the top-rungers were trying to gin up a Northern Euro and that may still be in the works. (My source has been avoiding me - dangerous for both of us, I 'spose. But deliciously profitable when you know where to look.)
Do have a new saying though, which may replace our long-used "Foloow the money" edict. "Follows the Gulfstreams."
Keep your eye on the Marcoule, France nuclear plant which apparently had an explosion this morning. From a safe distance, that is. An Atlantic ought to do.
Tell Us a Perrytale
Say, our friends over at the Charleston Voice have a find expository on the lack of economic miracles here in Texas.
This is "National Singles Week" and in our efforts to give you more news than you could possibly use, here's a bunch of data on America's Families and Living Arrangements just out from Census this morning. It figures....lol...get it? figures...Census...oh, crap writers must be on strike.
The the REAL Enemy is TNC's
Don't think Trans-National Corporations have organized in some way to control everything? Go here and read...then get back to me.
Amazing what a little network analytsis will show, ain't it.
Coping: 9/11 Plus One
What we're not noting, in all the hype about the 10th anniversary of 9/11 is that on this day (if my memory is not completely shot) the only planes flying 10-years ago today were those owned by - or carrying - certain Middle East families relatives out of the USA.
This - and why did Building 7 get "pulled" - are prime examples of how the American people have become so dumbed down that they forget related but pertinent facts in the face of a media barrage.
Next week, Clif's new Shape of Things to Come report is due out and if you think the past few months have been exciting, we're just now - this week, in fact - coming to the part where you'll really need the seat belts snugged up.
A lot of people don't care for my view of things - especially when there's a full court press on from MainStream Media to tell you that what's going on right in front of 'your lying eyes' is not what you're seeing at all.
Between now and the end of the year we should be experiencing another PMF (planetary mind f**k) designed to do nothing more than push people into compliance with the Ruling Class desire to keep up all working, sweating, and paying tribute both through taxes and also emotionally to the PowersThatBe.
When the next "shock and awe event" comes down the pike, remember that it may very well be something more than it appears on the surface.
I've told you, for example, that without 9/11, the world - and I mean the entire world - would have realized sometime about October of 2001 that the Internet bubble was the last big bubble. That would have ended the most profitable event in corporate history: The playing of the wage spread between the "have" countries and the "have-nots" which continues right on through this morning.
President Obama did a fine speech on 9/11 which you can read here if so inclined, but I would beg you to consider only one pertinent point here 10-years plus one day after 9/11:
If there's one introductory rule taught investigative reporters new to the profession its this: Follow the Money.
I don't like following the money, which we do an unusual amount of around here. But someone's got to be reasonable and view the world as a clockwork business model, which in case you haven't figured out by now, it really is.
The New York Times story then applied a little math and figured that for each individual dollar of the roughly half million dollars the whole "terrorist" operation cost, the West's systemic response has so far been about $7-million.
7-million to one leverage impresses me as a statistical outlier.
My heart goes out, even now, to those who lost loved ones in the events. But the hard questions remain: Without 9/11 would we already be in the depths of a global depression? Would we have sent hundreds of thousands of Americans to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan? Would our unemployment rate not be two or three points higher without all that war spending and cash-money for re-ups?
Those are terrible things to wonder, but we must do so as part of our training to follow the money.
The fact that the next Shape report outlines a similar "shock and awe" future mind and behavior modifying event causes me to well up with a single thought which you might want to tuck away for reference between now and, oh, next March, or so:
Fool me once, shame on you. Follow me twice, shame on me.
A reader note:
Ah...but speaking of which...
Oh, and check this trailer for "Thrive: What on Earth will it Take?" Global premier 11.11.11
Pass it on...
A reader sent me this interesting picture sequence under the heading "Comet now visible N. Texas" and noted it was about 280º degree bearing from his place.
Wow! He's got more and the video. Seems too early to be the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite due to smack in later this month, but who knows?
More as he shares, but definitely our reader in North T get's the gold star of the day for hot pix. Thank you!
The Hollow Earth Case
OK, off into the strange....A number of readers have suggested that we take up the issue of whether the Earth is indeed hollow. Along with the suggestion has come one that we watch an hour and a half worth of video on YouTube here under the head "Lazeria Map Collection: It the Earth Hollow?"
Pretty interesting stuff to watch - and then, tracking back like we do - we get to the Illinois Caves website here.
The plot line here sounds suspiciously like the Lost City or Lost Dave stories that supposedly sprung from a Phoenix Gazette story in 1908 which was written up on the Xpeditions Magazine.com web site here.
Whether the Earth is hollow seems hardly believable, except, or course for the crypto archeological findings and the occasional reports of UFO's descending into mountain craters or vanishing beneath the sea. Naturally, the science community gets a good laugh out of it, but like Galileo going along with the Vatican to demand adherence to the idea that the Sun goes around the earth, instead of the other way around, we'll just continue collecting the data.
There are simply too many stories of fantastic underground places to be ignored. Unfortunately, though, what people tend to forget is that if there is an extinction-level event, things get burned into the DNA. Because these 'in the ground" stories are out there, and because there are plenty of ancient artifacts like gold jewelry and shoes found in coal seams, and such, maybe the 'underground' archetype just wells up in us now and then - especially in periods of high social stress.
Might want to reread The Haunted Mesa again, since in American first people's culture, plenty of references to the Underworld and maybe that imagery of the River Styx has something to do with a culture being buried by earth changes previously.
Hey! Maybe this is something that does periodic reruns, you think? And maybe in order to freshen up the underground gene pool, when a huge chunk of society is about to be washed away in a [Great Flood] or something, a few people make their way into another world. Like the Anasazi....which still bothers me.
So does the disappearance from Chaco Canyon. We may have to take the plane our West and go poke around a bit there...wonder if there's an airport and a motel with wifi nearby?
Phone rings once. I call the person back. It's 8:30 Sunday night.
"Got anything you need copper plate, Ure?"
Turns out it's one of our sources in the oil business who is recovering some industrial diamonds from used oil well-drilling bits. An anode, a battery charger, and dishpan of sulfuric acid and out come $4,000-$10,000 of recovered industrial diamonds, not bad for an a couple of hours work.
Beats dumpster diving. But really...who else do you know who gets calls like that?
Adventures of the Third George Ure
So there's the writer/financial wonk/sales & marketing/strategic planning consultant George Ure. Then there's the his son, the EMT who is about to take his amateur extra class ham ticket to catch up with the old man.
And then there's this third guy - from the still-in-Scotland division of the Clan Ure...the George Ure who was singing with Samantha Barks as part of the "Summer with...The Composers" series in the UK this summer. Not bad. (G3's level was down about 6-10 db and the EQ left something to be desired...noise gating would be nice....but still, overall effect was OK....) Another vid of the kid here.
Not a bad for a family whose great, great, great, great grandfather was the prototype for the novel "Frankenstein", huh?
Only makes sense that over time the family would venture into the scarier territory: Economics and music.
Monday Funny: The Lecture
Reader supplied joke of the day:
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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