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Triskaideka-Muddle-Through & The CPI

Friday the Broketeenth!  Thursday's failure of the markets to deliver a nice, solid, 2 percent decline, have resulted in my failure to achieve launch velocity to reach the rarified area called "rich."

 

Although for a few seconds, the market was down about 132-points, and in spite of the Yahoo Finance history showing the Thursday low was slightly below the May 5th low, and even though gold and silver are still down a good bit, the early price of gold was up $5-6, I still hold hope (though it's growing fainter) that the market can return to something approaching rational.

 

Not likely today.

---

First thing out of the box is the Consumer Price Report.

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index posted another increase in April as the gasoline index continued to rise, the latter accounting for almost half of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The household energy index also rose, with all of its major components posting increases. The food index increased as well in April, though the 0.5 percent rise in the food at home index was the smallest increase this year. Within the food at home component, the indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, for dairy and related products, and for nonalcoholic beverages all posted notable increases, though the fresh vegetables index did decline following recent advances.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the third increase of that size in the last four months. Indexes making major contributions to that increase included those for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, medical care, and shelter.

The 12-month increases of major indexes continue to climb. The all items index rose 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending April 2011, the highest figure since October 2008. The energy index has now risen 19.0 percent over the last 12 months, with the gasoline index up 33.1 percent. The food index has risen 3.2 percent while the index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.3 percent; both figures represent increases over recent months. "

So, if food was up only 3.2% over the past year, what went down to hold the average so low when Year on Year energy was up 19%?  No idea how they pulled on this batch of statistical treachery, except that housing was up only 1 percent and a few other things were up lesser amounts.

 

The government continues to use - as a policy tool - what I call the idiots index which is all items less food and energy which was up only 1.3 percent for the year.  Like real people can get along without food and energy?  Like food and energy inflation costs don't matter?  ViseGrips to the forearms on my count: 3, 2, ouch!

 

Recovery or Fascination with JIT?

If you want something to ponder while things are slow at work, or you're daydreaming away a conference room session, ponder whether the business inventory/sales ration reported by the Census Bureau yesterday was due to actual sell-through and a pick up in the economy, or whether companies are just adjusting their inventory levels down to free up cash for executive bone-us-us:

 

All for Paul?

No surprise here:  Ron Paul tossed his hat in the presidential contest this morning on Good Morning America. 

 

I wonder if Paul's not announcing on Fox has something to do with their headlining "Ron Paul: I would not have order bin Laden Raid"?

 

bin Laden's Sights

...were apparently on president Obama says an ABC piece.

 

Federal Grandeur

Interesting story about the new building going in for the Army at Ft. Belvoir in Virginia.  Federal News Radio 1500/WTOP reports:

"It will be the third largest building in the government inventory, and it's the largest LEED Silver building in the country," said Travis Edwards, another base spokesman. "It's 2.3 million square feet, and you can fit the Statue of Liberty in the atrium. It's a huge building, and it uses very little energy."

Still, it's smaller than the 104-acres complex the US is building out to house the US Embassy in Iraq...or is it?  The American public doesn't get answers to hard questions like this one.

 

One creative way to solve the construction slow-down, isn't it?

 

While You Are Dying, Dept.

The Intel Hub is headlining that "Emergency levels of Japan nuclear radiation found in forecasts censored from the public."  Now, get back to work, wage-serf...and while you're at it, wope that look of feigned surprise off your mug.

---

And from a lsailing reader, 26 days at sea:

I docked yesterday morning, 26 days at seas from Hawaii. We did not see any of the tsumani junk but a ton of plastic and fishing nets. A couple that caught our rudder and proop. Good thing the water was still warm! And I had 2 20 somethings on board. At 59, I'm too old for that s**t! But if need be.....

As Goes Portugal

Word that the economy of Portugal is heading into a double-dip recession may be a useful construct for what's ahead.  Wonder if Pat Matheny could do a song like "As falls Portugal, so falls Portugal's falls...?"

 

(more after this...)

 

 

 

Coping: With Corporatized Yellow Journalism

Can't tell you the number of readers who fled UrbanSurvival readership when I dared question the Koch Brothers-backed Tea Party movement, daring to opine that it was just a sham.  Although I'd offer that most of the Tea Partiers have started showing their true corporate-sponsored stripes lately. 

 

In Washington, meantime, and emphasis on the word mean, the republicorps are busily lining up to take entitlements - such as unemployment benefits - and whack them while handing out the bloodied remains to the corporate vultures who are always looking for the next Bigger Tax Break.

 

That governor Sham in Wisconsin hands out corporate tax breaks, which created a budget crisis, which he then tried to solve on the backs of unionized working people, was just another example of how the Turncoat Party has forgotten that there's no mention of supra-human corporations in the Constitution is beyond question.

 

Still, that didn't slow the Bushistas from appointing a wildly pro-corporate High Corp and sure, sure, since when is going hunting with Dick Cheney a crime?

 

I've never been particularly anti anything, however; including, despite their miserable selling-out of people's property to corporations lately, that even holds generally for the GOP.

 

But that gets us to what's becoming well-trodden ground.  How some of the profiteers are racking up huge fortunes in a latter-day replay of the Hearst & Yellow Journalism days back in the later years of the 1800's and the early years of the 1900's.

 

It's worth it once in a while to revisit the roots of extreme media which was around long before the internet.  Wiki it:

"Yellow journalism or the yellow press is a type of journalism that presents little or no legitimate well-researched news and instead uses eye-catching headlines to sell more newspapers. Techniques may include exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, or sensationalism. By extension "Yellow Journalism" is used today as a pejorative to decry any journalism that treats news in an unprofessional or unethical fashion.

Campbell (2001) defines Yellow Press newspapers as having daily multi-column front-page headlines covering a variety of topics, such as sports and scandal, using bold layouts (with large illustrations and perhaps color), heavy reliance on unnamed sources, and unabashed self-promotion. The term was extensively used to describe certain major New York City newspapers about 1900 as they battled for circulation.

Frank Luther Mott (1941) defines yellow journalism in terms of five characteristics:[1]

1. scare headlines in huge print, often of minor news

2. lavish use of pictures, or imaginary drawings

3. use of faked interviews, misleading headlines, pseudo-science, and a parade of false learning from so-called experts

4. emphasis on full-color Sunday supplements, usually with comic strips (which is now normal in the U.S.)

5. dramatic sympathy with the "underdog" against the system.

A little deeper reading of the subject reveals that much of it arose from the circulation battles between Joseph Pulitzer's prized New York World and William Heart's New York Journal, as described here.

---

A fine lesson, in passing, about how people with power (or huge egos) exert power & influence:   One way is by insisting that people use a longish first name, an extraneous initial, or in the case of William Randolph Heart, an unnecessarily long name. 

 

"Bill Hearst" would have just perfectly adequate, except that the press gets kowtowed what turns into a journalistic elevation of certain people (PTB) to a kind of news reporter subliminal hierarchy which is then imprinted upon the reader.

 

Just something to be aware of, since while reporters like to hold themselves  out as the all-seeing eyes and ears of the public, they are blind when it comes to the whole lore of titles and how these frame perceptions of other content.

 

"The Honorable," "Her Majesty," "The President,"  "The Honorable Senator from..."  The list goes on an on.  Point is a good reporter should be able to distinguish between position power and name or branding power and the simple journalistic task of identifying the subject at hand.

 

Occasionally, when speaking of the office of the President, I'll use the capitalized designation.  But if it's a passing reference to someone who is already well-known, such as 'president Obama' (like there's another Obama out there you might confuse him with?) I'll toss in the extraneous label since it gives me time while writing to think up something clever for the next sentence following.  Or, I sneak in a short nap while typing the word.

 

If America is really a Land of Equality, we'd pick up and finish passage of the Titles of Nobility Amendment to the US Constitution which was proposed in 1810 but which never worked its way around the country's state legislatures, since it would have thus been incorporated as a black and white codification of the very American urge to be people instead of positions of power.

 

Obviously, this kind of dangerous thinking could not be allowed, since it would tear down the American aristocracy which was just trying to get legs under it and which was up and walking by the time president Jackson was having his Bank of the United States crisis.

 

Though never ratified, the text which was sent to the states went as follows:

If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive or retain, any title of nobility or honour, or shall, without the consent of Congress, accept and retain any present, pension, office or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince or foreign power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them.[3]

Thus, we would instantly be freed of having recipients of foreign nobility retaining their rights to American citizenship, and we might even see government officials who hold foreign passports have to rethink which country they are exclusively serving.

 

One has to wonder how much foreign dash (pronounced "dausch" in Russian, roughly meaning 'grease') former public officials accumulated  (gifts) once they've left office.  Under this proposed Amendment, it wouldn't matter, they'd immediately become subjects of the foreign government involved. 

 

Unfortunately, this brings with it a whole set of other problems, not the least of which is the IRS would lose its 10-year tax liability window which they insist on after a person renounces or changes citizenship.  wouldn't be able to have it both ways.

---

I'm afraid I've gotten a bit off track.  Surprise.  This was just going to be a pointer to read the story over at Alter-Net under the heading "America's Largest Newspaper Launches a Nasty Attack on Grandma and Grandpa The Rupert Murdoch-owned, right-wing Wall Street Journal is lying, plain and simple."

---

Times have improved since the days of Yellow Journalism.  But not by much.

 

Inquiring Minds Department

Reader brings up an interesting thought:

"On the Simpsons episode "To Surveil with Love" There was a section I was drawn to and wanted to really see. It is what the people at the table are doing or look like when the bomb is planted in the Duff bag. I painstakingly tried to stop on the exact second but when you slow the video feed down the 9:05 second is blank between frames understandable but the 9:06 second is deleted no other second is deleted this way. It has been removed from being able to stop on it and see that picture frame as a stand still. Yet you can see it during the watching of the whole thing. I thought it was unusual. ?? May 2011 makes more sense.. Im sure you noticed that it was a train station. The artists purposely took strategic effort to back out from the bomb over the train tracks. These last weeks we all learned that "Osama" was planning on trying to bomb train stations. Was leaking that info a bit of info a strategic move? Don't know? and I am pretty sure I don't want to care or email you about it but I am. Can't even begin to figure why I was drawn to the one second that cannot be stopped on, but I was.

Casera sera whatever will be will be.

I don't expect to hear from you but I have no one else to share this with so it may go into your pile of I don't give a damn but at least its off my chest. I feel compelled to tell someone the worthless crap the universe keeps dishing, out to me. Sorry this had to be you this time. Sometimes its you and sometimes its David Nabhan. Still can't figure out why..... damned collective. I would be sad though I think if they stopped connecting with me. Even if I am left with the thoughts alone. People don't want to know and don't care and heaven forbid you say you were drawn to information by a collective of conscious thought. Damn religious people they are the most skeptical, they have all become Romans.

I really liked your blog today May 12 you were able to fit a lot of key words into the first sentence..even if it was a run on ;) I always think the first sentence to blogs are funny because of search engines key words. I try to read them in one breath out loud, makes me laugh every time. Dorky I know but its the small things that keep me sane. Like learning Finnish for no apparent reason. That is that I know of.

Onnea... Mr. Ure

Assuming you know "onnea" is Finnish for "good luck!" we'll just skip over the idea that the CIA uses the Simpsons as messages for its field crews and jump down to the denial that anything I ever write on my site is influenced by keyword use in the first sentence.

 

Would be interesting to see the missing frame, though...

 

Favoring Curry

Since we're heading East next week (if Tennessee can be considered east and maybe that is a stretch), Elaine started per trip preps yesterday with a mandatory shopping trip to pick up 'a few things'.

 

Since she's one of about 27 women in the world who can still wear the same size clothes she wore in high school back before the turn of the century, I didn't see the point, but then I wear jeans with holes in them and dress somewhere between street-person and car wash attendant.

 

But she came home famished and declared "I'm hungry..." 

 

Taking the hint - since I was too - I whipped up a quick shrimp curry which was amazingly good. 

 

You start by boiling a couple of cups of water for the rice.  When that comes to a boil, you add a cup of rice, reduce heat, simmer 20 minutes, and while that's going on, get to work on the next part.

 

2 - 3 tablespoons of butter go into a metal pan

1-1½ tablespoons of flour is gently browned in this.

Then you pour in half a cup of half & half while whisking for all you're worth.

Then you put in milk until the whole white sauce is about the consistency of a medium creamed soup when brought to a slow boil while continuing to beat it senseless.

 

Then you shake in enough curry powder till it's all the color of (pardon this) baby poo...a color real parents never forget.

 

After this go a few handfuls of raisins, some shakes of Cayenne pepper, dash of sugar and some more pepper.

 

By now the rice has overflowed onto the stove and is starting to burn.  This is normal.  When the wife mentions the smoke, you hold up the glass cookstove razor/scraper and confidently announce "Got it covered..."  The look of competence is what you've after here.

 

Eventually the curry will have started to burn, too.  so you quickly toss in a cup and a half of rinsed small shrimp.  Plate at once and serve with a good slug of Italian vitamins.

 

Strategy is important and the key thing here is this:  Talk about something other than food.  The idea is to keep the other person talking until the food sort of naturally comes up in conversation.

 

"My tongue is starting to burn...how much Cayenne pepper did you add?" is how our conversation worked out last night.  "Oh, just a tiny bit..."  Again, the look is what's key here.  Gotta be convincing.

 

Since I noticed, too, that someone had tipped a bit heavy on the Cayenne, I made up a few distraction remarks like "Hey!  Look at the cat, quick!"

 

"I don't see the cat, what are you talking about?"

 

"Thought I saw her out of the corner of my eye getting ready to scratch the furniture..."  But of course while the missus was looking down toward the far end of the house, I'd been able to wipe the beads of sweat which were running down my forehead away and she was none the wiser.

 

I've had various successes and failures with curries. Some caramelized onions are good as an add-on, as are mushrooms, chicken, white fish, and even some veggies.  Not fond of beef, and don't do lamb although some people claim lamb curry is excellent.  Which it is, if you like eating curry-flavored candles.

 

One cautionary note: Be prepared for horrible 'morning breath' the next day; this isn't something to be tried when you're low on Listerine. And don't offer your spouse/significant one any other meal option.

 

My soon-to-be patented axiom: "Matching Food = Matching Breath" holds only partly true for curry.  Theory behind it is that since all bodies are roughly the same (food cookers that extract energy) if you and the SO eat exactly the same thing, your breath ought to match up over time.

 

When you're going to be sitting in a car for several days with someone, it's important to curry their favor to ensure a pleasant trip.  Being a bit dyslexic, I figured flavoring curry would be close enough.

 

 

Send Ure comments to george@ure.net

---

Last week's report is always here.

 

---

Thursday May 12, 2011

Easy Money, Shooting Fish, Etc...

Professor Ure walks up to the white board at the front of his Econ 605 class which he snuck into after clubbing the real professor, who was laden down by the initials he had to drag around after his name, tossed him into a broom closet, and stole his robe of holy academia with the intent of really educating young students in the blood sport of money in the practical workings of greed.

 

"First thing this morning is we're going to review how much of a Euro the US dollar would buy on May 4th from this chart here," he began earnestly.  "Any takers?"

 

"0.6743?" came a jittery replay.

 

"Exactly.  Let's memorize hold that in short term memory [stm] for a while.  Now, has anyone looked at the Dollars to buy a Euro on this page this morning?"

 

A small gasp from students as they noted the results: "Oh my God!  0.7070 when class started!"  This was getting to be fun.

 

"Now, we divide the 0.7.70 by the 0.6743 and what to we get?"

 

A hand went up toward the back:  "Bad writing?"

 

"No, you idiot! We get a 4.85% current move UP by the dollar.  And you know what this does to gold and silver?  Trashes them.  But we don't care about that, since the government always prints more money than it needs, so what's the answer to "Where is the stock market going today?"

 

By now, most of the class had dozed off.  Bad as the real professor was, he at least tossed in enough differential equations to keep the bright students awake.  However this stand-in was boring as could be. 

 

"We can take the May 4th closing Dow and estimate that the Dollar move should cause a 4.85 percent decline in the Dow.  Since it says here that the May 4tsh close was 12,723.58, where would a 4.85% decline place the Dow?"

 

One of the math jocks woke up from his snooze long to mumble "Dow 12,135, S&P 1285, NASDOG Composted of 2,697.  We're NOT idiots Professor Ure."

 

"Ah, there you're wrong," the stand-in said, raising his voice.  "You ARE idiots because you're studying to be ECONOMISTS!"

 

At that moment, campus police and a battered professor, still weighted down by the long striking of initials he was dragging around -  CPA, CFP, PhD and some others - stormed into the room accompanied by Campus Police and the stand-in was promptly handcuffed and led off to a meeting with the Department of Paradigm Security..

---

"Real Professor, is he right?  Is this what causes minicrashes?" wondered the cute girl in the fourth row.

 

"No, of course not!  Who in their right mind would look at such foolishness and expect a 200 point or greater decline in the Dow today?"

 

Who, in their right mind, indeed.

 

As Goes World

Still, the headlines are crossing now that "World share dragged down by Wall Street fall" which around here (after I paid off the campus police) I penciled out with Robin Landry's help, might mean - if the 12,000 level is tested) a drop to 11,800 - or in there - which, if it happens would set up a test of 11,000, then 10,000, and if we puncture 9,500 on the Dow means we're all going back to the economic Stone Age.  Which is why Robin's got his clients out of long positions recently and why I'm still sitting on my (slightly soiled) shorts...er...so to speak.

 

Pee Pee Aye

Producer Price Index gobbledygook is hot off the BLS website this morning:

The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.8 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed increases of 0.7 percent in March and 1.6 percent in February. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods climbed 1.3 percent in April, and the crude goods index rose 4.0 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 6.8 percent for the 12 months ended April 2011, the largest year-over-year gain since an 8.8-percent increase in September 2008.

Shoot, that ain't nothin - why it's only a 10 PERCENT ANNUALIZED INFLATION RATE IN THE WINGS.  Gotta get hold of myself.  Besides, energy is only going up at a 30 PERCENT ANNUAL RATE. Whew, where's my meds?

 

Weakly job numbers are out, too:

"In the week ending May 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 436,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 432,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending April 30, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 30 was 3,756,000, an increase of 5,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,751,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,718,500, an increase of 13,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,705,250. "

As I've said before, these rates would be higher, except the country has run out of working people to lay off.

 

Hip Deep & Rising

The plan we have to take a drive up toward Tennessee next week may turn into a weather-dependent decision:  Waters are still rising in the Mississippi River valley, although the water is slowly working its way south.  We don't have a boat on a trailer to drag along just in case, but the thought crosses my mind.

---

Our storms from Texas head east today but not after some spectacular lightning/transformer explosions were caught on video up in Forth Worth.

 

How to Dig a Hole

When you look at the latest (April) Treasury read of the budget, why the dollar would be strengthening seems like a pharmaceutical question:

 

Individual incomes taxes for the month were around $155.561 billion and corporate income taxes were $$25 billion plus or minus a cheeseburger.  Which just shows to go you what passing around dough in Washington will buy yah, huh?

 

Shake & Quake

While it wasn't a particularly big quake, at least by Chilean, Haitian, or Japanese standards, the quake in Spain yesterday caught a lot of people off-guard.  A reader there sends this:

Dear Mr. Ure Just to report the today's quake here in Spain in the city of Lorca, Murcia region, in the Mediterranean Coast. By now, at least 3 people are reported dead. a lot of confusion, (we are not used at all of this kind of events). Buildings cracked, cars smashed and bells from churches lying on the the streets. According to Tv news a lot of confusion and panic. Cell phone system down in he area. Hope my "broken.English", is enough to get the first picture.

Anyway, my little contribution to your excellent work. Keep on! I'm following urbansurvival since 1998! Best Regards

[a reader in]

Barcelona, Spain

Reader's right about the death toll - which at latest check this morning - was up to eight.  Other reports have it that at least ten were dead, but whether that means two people have 'gone Lazarus', or the Spanish aren't too good at counting when debris is still falling on 'em is an open question due further research.

 

On t'other hand, there's this late Italian dude, Raffaele Bendandi whose method/ideas from looking at Earth-Moon-Sun relationships had caused worries in Rome in recent days.  Is this theory proving out?

 

Not sure what to make of the small version of the induction magnetometer up at HAARP this morning.  I waited for more than an hour for the full-sized image to load but their server must be slammed.  Still, the picture looked unusual, which may mean Earth is getting more of that 'energy from space" which under the expanding Earth core theory may set off more BIG quaking in a day or four.

 

Texas Spending, National Politicking

While I await the soon-come regurgitation of the Trans-Texas Corridor, all part of the corporate urge to displace American trucks with cheaper to operate Mexican trucks, along with the CANAMEX highway project, we see the geniuses in Austin are planning to spend $2-million to take pictures of school lunches.

 

But, what can I say about a state that considers funding of a Formula One auto racing scheme to the tune of $250 million over 10 years while laying off teachers?

---

Still, my colleague Howard Hill who often calls to have me explain to him "Why is Texas doing [this or that]?" has found another state which may give the republicorps here a run for their money:

Check this out.... Bobby Jindal, sitting just a few hundred miles east of you, has a much better way to raid the taxpayer cookie jar....

Turns out something is being run by government correctly in Louisiana -- the state health insurance system. It covers current and former employees, and has over half a billion in cash reserves. The idea, rather than just taking the $500 million (that wouldn't be very creative, would it?) is to sell the health insurance to a private company, and take $150 million for the sale. Then they'll get to keep paying the private company forever, and get zippo for the existing reserve. Nice.

Of course I only take Howard half-serious on this stuff, instead looking at these kinds of things are indicators of what's ahead in national politics.  Obviously, Jindal's got plans to move up the food chain (or would that be down?...hmmm...) and everyone east of the Pecos knows Ric Perry is itching for something bigger, although I don't think my suggestion of Alaska will be heeded.

 

Why if there was an EFT on both of these fellers, I figure it'd be on a moonshot trajectory in here.  Unfortunately, not being a corporation, I'll never hear from either one of 'em...

---

Speaking of high office, the announcement yesterday that Newt Gingrich was running for the White House is about as surprising at gravity.  Except, unlike gravity, Newt has to run uphill.  Matt Taibbi's take over at Rolling Stone was "Welcome to the Freak Show" the republicorps are fielding sounds about right.

 

Arresting Development

If you're a legal-minded sort, I suppose I could ask you this:  Since the Treasury Auctions on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will take the US over the Federal Debt Ceiling, is there anyone around who can, oh, you know, arrest the whole Washington cabal and get us people who have common sense?

 

The Washington Post notes that the Obama administration is "urging senate democrats to remain open to debt-ceiling negotiations."

 

To the Chief Cynic this looks like Mr. "Change" artist is trying to set up the same kind of outcome from Washington that we always get:  Each side getting just enough 'skin in the game' so they can blame the other side when things don't work out right...which they never do.

 

Defenders of the paradigm call this the 'magic of negotiations' or other trite phrases like "How democracy works."  There's another term which seems much more descriptive when you look into it:

 

Evolving corporate feudalism.

 

Coping: With Noisy Ham Bands

Several people sent in a video which is making its round about the 'net suggesting that HAARP was going full-tilt and that ham radio operators are experiencing all kinds of problems with high static levels..."

 

Well, no, actually.  The bands were in fair condition yesterday and although hams are always griping about static and noise levels, there was one frequently cited source on the internet which to my ear sounded as though someone had lost an antenna connection, more than anything.

 

This was a software-defined radio site where you could 'tune the bands' online and it seemed like it was confirming the video.  But no, on a little tuning, there wasn't even a signal on the AM broadcast band.  So as a reality check, that is NOT HAARP related.

 

On the other hand, what is typical is that when we get a bunch of thunderstorms firing off over the western part of Texas that then roll eastward (We're done with em and pleased to pass them on) yes, there is often a higher noise floor due to an increase in lightning.

 

But was it the 'end of the world" due to HAARP?  Not any more than stubbing my toe is an indication of coming calamity.  Sorry.

---

Still, a look at the HAARP Induction Magnetometer this morning was just wild:

 

All of which means our usual "this will be a normal day" chits are not being passed out because of both magnetometer and dollar index charts.  If you're neighborhood experiences either financial or earthquakes today, it wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Thursday at the WuJo

Locking Computers

Say, here's an interesting dream from last night:  I had a dream where (for some reason) people were trying to steal my computer.  Which would be an interesting trick, since my office has four computers and (lemme count...) seven monitors in it, not counting a laptop, dispersed storage and cloud backups....

 

But the point of the dream was that all computer theft (99% of it anyway) could be halted if people just put in really long mixed case, odd ASCII character passwords.

 

No, I have no idea why I would have that kind of a dream, except I put a new computer in for the ham radio gear Wednesday to work faster in the digital modes which provide chat and picture sending/receiving without the phone company or internet being involved.

---

Say, if you happen to get an email from george@ure.net and it has something to do with a Russia hardcore porn site, it's not from me.  People who are scammers and fraudsters often pick up an email at random off the net (like mine) and then use it for nefarious purposes.

 

Curious though, so I thought I'd mention it.  Looks like my email server for that account maybe has been hacked or something...since I can't even change my password on their system...

 

---

Wednesday May 11, 2011

Luci Daze: Quakes, Floods, and the Simpsons

I've had a surprising amount of email suggesting this is a key day for luciferian types; 5/11/11 supposedly has some magick/numerological significance.

 

About the only thing I can think of it maybe if the earthquakes in the Loyalty Islands could be tied in - where they're had one devil of a time with what are now 16 quakes in the past 24-hours including the largest at 6.8 - then maybe I'd buy into it.

 

People up Tennessee way are having a hell of a time with the Mississippi River which is right up to limits and in some places beyond. 

 

From a linguistics standpoint, today is a bit curious:  The 'adjective du jour' is the word bulging which has suddenly become the word editors and writers are compulsively tacking into their stories on the river's wanderings.  Examples are here, here, and here.

 

Not exactly satanic, just what rivers do when they move slowly downhill toward the Gulf of Mexico.  Which, by the way, we're told by well-informed readers may cause some problems if the Army Corp of Engineers opens the Morganza spillway and other's to relieve water pressure.  Reason?  Some of the water would head down the almost unspellable (and unpronounceable) waterway (The Atchafalaya Basin ) where it could damage the oster beds - which survived the GOM mess.

 

But while some of the shellfish elsewhere in the brackish waters would likely flee to the higher salinity Gulf, the residents of New Orleans would likely justy as soon the spillways are opened, since if they're not, the NOLA residents will undergo another flood.

 

We incorrectly noted the spillway as not having been opened for 50-years, but a more detailed records check finds it was opened in the spring of 1974 for high water relief.

 

Still, hardly the mark of luciferians - just what water does in seeking its own level.

 

On the other hand, this morning is when we get to 5:11 which some are holding will be when a domestic terrorism attack happens - since in a Simpsons' episode done 6-months before 9/11 the date 9/11 figured into the show and in addition, the town clock which shows up at the 08: second mark in this YouTube video, clearly shows 5:55 - meaning the hands are on the 5 and the 11...and sure enough that's today.

 

About the closest thing to a story of luciferian interest might be some new science emerging about how sulfur dioxide and water mix at high levels of the atmosphere, but that's far crime from the 'brimstone' kind of reaction which would be more appealing to the high temperature reptilian types.

 

Delving deeper into the news search engines, nothing particularly out of the ordinary for luciferian or devil hits this morning; the usual tie-up with religious this-n-that's, product liability and taxes, which come to think of it are a kind of terrorism all their own.

 

So while talk is hyped around the net that today has some kind ofr 'special' meaning to it, I'm stuck in Cynical George Mode awaiting a 9.2 (or larger) quake, another round of Mississippi flooding, or a false flag attack on some of America's key infrastructure. 

 

But if none of these shows up today, I'll have to conclude that the much-hyped talk about May 11, 2011 being of key importance to luciferian types is way over-hyped and nonsensical...

 

Still can't be too careful;.  Wonder if holy water makes good coffee?

 

How to Take the News

I'm never sure how to take a story about commodities, since they are mucxh less regulated in what people say, and thus it takes a higher level of discernment to figure out what the hell is going on.

 

Take for example this morning there's a CNBC piece "Jim Rogers Says May Short US Treasuries."  That would imply that Rogers thinks the price of treasuries will be coming down - and that further means that treasuries would be hurt by rising interest rates..

 

But wait!  Any damn fool (I play this part) can see by looking at the long-term decline of the US Dollar versus the Euro - chart here - that the Dollar actually seems to have broken about a one-year long down trend.

 

Lookie here:  IF the dollar is reversing course and is breaking the downtrend, then the dollar will strengthen, which means it would be gaining value and thus would not need to pay as high an interest rate.

 

So what is brother Rogers up to?  He said may but these commodity guys, you gotten keep an eye on.  They sometimes m(not saying it's the case here, just sometimes) they do things like make pronouncements about the direction of something and do exactly the opposite.

 

So the interesting question to ponder is this:  "Is Rogers really going to short treasuries, OR is he really going long treasuries and just working the market a bit?"

 

I outlined an interesting series of calculations on gold and silver prices in last weekend's Peoplenomics report.  And talk like Rogers' isn't gonna 'hurt the cause' (which is to make money) since selling treasuries would imply a high inflation expectation and that would be great for the metals.

 

Except of course - if he's saying one thing, but really may do t'other.

 

Makes blackjack and roulette look positively rational in comparison to commodity trading, doesn't it.  The one thing to take with this kind of news story is aspirin; your head's bound to hurt when you try to out-fox the big guys.

 

Gold's Glittery Future

Human Events has an interesting interview with Steve Forbes in which he's predicting a return to the gold standard within 5-years.

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What the article doesn't get into - but which ought to be a matter of some conjecture, is that if government does that, would they also confiscate gold and silver like they did in the Great Depression?  It'd make a good follow-up.

 

Balance of Trade - April

Hot off the .PDF:

Goods and Services

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $172.7 billion and imports of $220.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $48.2 billion, up from $45.4 billion in February, revised. March exports were $7.7 billion more than February exports of $165.0 billion. March imports were $10.4 billion more than February imports of $210.4 billion.

 

In March, the goods deficit increased $3.0 billion from February to $62.1 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.3 billion to $13.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $7.1 billion to $124.9 billion, and imports of goods increased $10.1 billion to $187.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $47.7 billion, and imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $33.8 billion.

 

The goods and services deficit increased $8.7 billion from March 2010 to March 2011. Exports were up $22.4 billion, or 14.9 percent, and imports were up $31.1 billion, or 16.4 percent.

 

Goods (Census Basis)

The February to March increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($2.5 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); capital goods ($1.0 billion); other goods ($0.8 billion); consumer goods ($0.7 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.6 billion).

 

The February to March increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($7.7 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($2.1 billion); capital goods ($1.6 billion); and other goods ($0.6 billion). A decrease occurred in consumer goods ($2.0 billion). Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged.

Say "Cheese!" (here's a picture):

 

The trade surplus with Japan was up to $6.1 billion and we imported $32.2 billion of high tech/advanced technology goods while exporting only $25.3 billion.  Which shows to go you that America isn't what it used to be.  Once upon a time in our Youth we actually were the leader in high tech.

 

Can't Trust Government Department

Say, remember years back I told you to be very, very wary of government promises that 401k's and such would not be taxed since government doesn't keep promises very well - at least over the long term?

 

Well check out what's going on in Ireland where the government is looking at ways to raid private pensions in order to pay for spending.

 

I'll just step out on a limb and predict it's only a matter of time till that kind of thinking comes here, too.  Pass the Bushmill's, wouldja?

 

ILL-inois

Speaking of government, power, grabs and such:  Here's an article about how an Illinois lawmaker is tossing around the idea that parents who raise overweight kids should pay higher taxes.

 

I haven't had a great fondness for Illinois politicans, especially here recently, so maybe this just continues a trend.

 

Coping: With M.C. Escher

Not very often we talk about art around here. Perhaps because nature is its own best critic and when it paints a beautiful sky, it quickly becomes bored and replaces it with another view.  Or, if there's a find stand of trees, it's only a matter of time until nature touches off a forest fire and that gets the whole cycle going again.

 

I think if I had to pick a second favorite artist it would be Maurits Cornelis Escher, who passed away in 1972 after pioneering a style of  art which is pleasingly mind-bending.

 

The picture he did in 1948 called "Drawing Hands" captures the kind of mental "It can't be so!" that stills the mind which (at least for me) finds a fascination with looking into it.

 

Oh sure, the hidden door in our house, and discretely obscured other attributes are interesting - fun from a carpentry standpoint - but not truly mind expanding like the works of M.C. Escher.

 

If you get a chance, and you happen to be in Ohio for the HUGE ham radio convention (May 20th)  (The Dayton Hamvention), it's about a 3-hour (197 mile) drive from Dayton to the Akron Art Museum where the Escher Show will be on until June 5th.

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Elaine and I head out on a road trip next week, so my columns will be happening from 'on the road' - which should be interesting since we'll be going through some of the recently flooded areas and I expect to be able to show you some of the damage and recovery efforts first-hand.  The business purpose of our trip is to be in Oak Ridge, TN on Thursday the 19th to have my right eye looked at by a renown radial keratotomy whiz since while the left eye is 20:15, the best the right corrects to is 20:60 and I'd like it a little sharper, thanks.

 

The trip's timing is only coincidentally close to Hamvention time. I can get a lot of things past Elaine, but sitting in a car for another 5-hours so I can find more ham gear is close enough to an impossible sale, as to not be worth mentioning.

 

And that means the excursion to Akron is definitely out, but that's OK because I have a Google images search of his other works here.

 

Particularly good is this instructional video on "How to Draw MC Escher's Impossible Cube."  I've been studying this for a while, since most of my sketches of things around the ranch (like the new carport/truckport seem to come out looking strangely Escher-esque.

 

I haven't given up on Dayton yet.  I'm just running a little low on how to convince Elaine that there'd be more to be gained from wandering the swap meet tables than there would be coming back through Nashville and going to a show there and maybe in Branson.

 

If you do go to Dayton and do find a good condition  Hallicrafters HT-33 linear amplifier to go with my HT-32 transmitter and SX-101 (Mk 3) receiver, let me know?  

 

Wednesday at the WuJo

Nature's Art Lessons, Redux

Once again this morning I'm blessed with the I-Ching Inbox phenomena.

 

If you're not familiar with how this works, it goes something like this:  George writes a story about art/MC Escher, like the piece just before this one.  Then, while I'm writing that story, a huge synch-wink from Universe shows up as something I've been writing resonates with the Great River of Life which we're all floating down.

 

It shows up in my inbox today as this:

"Good Morning George,

I wanted to send you this picture to see if you can assist me in figuring it out. At first it looked like a rainbow, but when I really starting looking, I ran in the house and grabbed the camera and camcorder. The camera is a Canon 40D. It was shot on this past Saturday. Any help would be helpful. Thanks and keep up the good work.

 

He's also got HD Video of it shot with a Sony XR520.  Almost looks like one of the backgrounds that religious publishers and greeting card outfits cobble up.  I can share the fellow's contact info with you, if you have a serious way to monetize this ;-)  The horizontal version would make a great screensaver, if I wasn't so attached to plain black - which keeps me focused and prevents distractions...

 

Not sure how long it lasted, but the effect is wonderful.  But, like I said earlier, if you drive to Country Club Hills, IL, I'm sure/certain nature will have scrubbed it by now and put up something else.

 

The picture does lead to an interesting bit of speculation:  While we lil' humans think ourselves an advanced species because we can make up screensavers, is it  possible that scenes like this are around all the time as proof that Universe operates at a larger scale.

 

I mean what if this is a skysaver?

 

Authoring Adventures

My friend Howard Hill - who I'm co-authoring a fun economics book with (if fun and economics can be corralled that close to fun) sent me a note after reading this Farhad Manjoo piece in Slate about people (like me) who put two spaces after a period.

 

Manjoo's rant gets into typesetting minutia as he explains "Why you should never, ever use two spaces after a period."

 

Howard's accompanying note sounded as though he wasn't convinced:

"...need you to look something up in the Chicago Manual of Style. Bet you thought it was forever going to serve as a doorstop.  Now's your chance."

Sure enough, my 16th Edition of the CMOS (not to be confused with complimentary metal-oxide semiconductors) says Manjoo is right, except that whether there's one space, or two, after a sentence doesn't make a huge difference IMHO.

 

The way I look at it, the double space after - which has been hard-coded in me down at the hardware level - gives a persoin a little more time to think about what I just said. Before slamming them in the eyes with the next thought.

 

My counter to Manjoo's view is that the very word "style" means a matter of doing something.  My part of my brain/wetware that deals with spaces after periods was "flashed" in 1962 (or was it 1963?) when I was trained to type in Seattle Public Schools.

 

If someone can give me a reason to invest the time & energy in 're-flashing' to get down to this single space after stuff, and by this I mean an economic reason, I'm not going to screw with it.

 

And for the book?  I'll just do a search & replace to change every ^s^s to a ^s and call it good.

 

But Howard was right about one thing: the CMOS had been doing a fine job of door-holding.  Since he pointed this out, I've decided to go back to putting it under my pillow at night to see if I can learn anything further about writing that way.

---

Since we started off this morning discussing Luci Daze, the reason I'm no more fearful than any other morning is that I have tentatively concluded Hell is currently leaderless.  The Devil has long ago moved into state legislatures, congress, law schools, and punctuation rule books.

 

If you don't mind hot weather, and only a bit more sulfur smell than catalytic converters put off, there might be a job opening There.  Enough Americans have been out of work long enough to make some consider it, I'm sure.

 

---

Tuesday May 10, 2011

Floods and Food

Since I try to be a somewhat well-informed writer, I get all kinds of interesting reports and among Monday's was the USDA CropProgress update.  In it, we can see the impact of flooding in the nation's breadbasket in spades.

 

Take cotton:  So far this season that's not looking too bad.  The 2006-2010 average was 33% planted by this time, and this year it's only 26%.  Not a disaster.  But, you can't eat cotton.

 

Corn's a little different.  The national average planted by this time (2006-2010 in all these, right?) was 59%.  Instead, we have only 40% in and some states, like Michigan are only 8% planted compared with 49% historically.  Iowa is right on track, but Indiana?  4% planted compared with a 49% average previously.

 

Worse, in the survey of 18 corn producing states, only 7% of the crop has emerged (sprouted, eh?) versus a 21% average.

 

Soybeans are 7% planted instead of the usual 17%.

 

Sorghum and peanuts are doing fine, but sugarbeets?  Another disaster lurking:  Only 33% planted versus 77% in more normal times.

 

Spring wheat planting is behind, too:  22% in compared with the five year average 61% in the ground by now.  And of that, only 6% has emerged with a 25% average for five years.

 

Oats are down some, but more important with beer season fast approaching, barley is running at half-speed.

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I mention this now so you can keep an eye on headlines that related food to turmoil and inflation.  For example, here's a report that "Egypt's annual inflation rate climbs past 12 percent on surging food prices."

 

Here's another one:  "Tyson warns on rising food costs."

 

This morning, people in Alabama will start to receive federal food assistance in the wake of the storms a week, or so, back.

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Not too much can be done about the flood waters in the Mississippi River Valley, which crested at just under 48-feet in Memphis and are now working their way south toward Mississippi and Louisiana, except watch and see how much impact it has on crops as it works down to the Gulf.

 

Floods Push Merging With Canada?

A rather astute reader of ours, up in the Winnipeg area sent along this interesting take on recent flooding up there:

Dear Mr. Ure,

Flood escalation worries in Manitoba have prompted assistance from the Canadian military's Joint Task Force West Group. It is an interesting opportunity to observe the blending of civilian and military emergency response activities. One could imagine successful operations contributing towards a favourable reception of the planned "Tri-Command Vision".

Why, I'm so old, I remember when this kind of thing fell to State National Guards.  But I suppose with almost all available in the sandbox/oilpen, this all makes sense to someone.

---

Speaking of the new North American Government (you remember voting for that, right?):  You see where the US is planning to expand the Laredo truck crossing so as to put even more Mexican OTR gear on US roads?

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And if you thought someone had driven a silver stake through the CANAMEX Highway scheme, guess again.  Offishuldumb was out selling it last week in the hinterlands of Arizona.

 

I never cease to be amazed as the limited thought power of "offishuls" when it comes to least-cost labor promoters who want to bring in more and more truckloads of foreign goods when domestic unemployment is going back up - again. 

 

Calling Out the Republicorps

We can't help but notice that Texas is about to hand over more long-term operating leases of public highways as toll roads for often foreign companies. 

 

So the public pays for something - and then keeps paying for it forever.  That's a pantload of fresh & steamy, if you were to ask me.  And, sure as day follows night, I expect the Trans-Texas Corridor scheme to resurface, too.

 

Politicians as a class, have none, and are deaf to boot.

---

Then we see where the Texas republicorps have pushed through a right-wing plan to make sure the "loser pays" so that people will be effectively priced out of suing corporations.  Unless you happen to be a multimillionaire.

---

And, as if that's not enough, Florida is planning to cut unemployment benefits in order to pay for additional corporate tax breaks.

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The trend which the corpgov/republicorps types seem to have cobbled up (not without Big Bux help to be sure) is this:  End federal contributions to unemployment and instead move to more of a block grant approach, which will leave it up to States how to spend the money.

 

Add some slimy lobbyists to convince enough people in State Legislatures to go along with the hoodwinking, the corps would get money for pet projects as long as they can paint it up with the job-creation lipstick heavily enough.  The people who need money to eat?  They be get damned, starved, and turned out, but that's what wage-serfs are for, anyway.  Screw 'em.

 

Not.

---

Magic Words:  The rabid right continues to sell mindless acceptance of the notion that the Obama administration as helplessly socialist.  The rabid's handlers just know that word - socialist - pulls on a certain mindset.  And, in truth, some of them are.

 

But what people are blind to is when the rabid right sells out the role of government as in U.I. money and tries to take projects already paid for with public money and turn it over to the private sector - that's raw, unpardonable exploitation.

 

You seeing a trend here?  Look really hard at both sides  - republicorps and democorps are at the trough and that means there's not room left for you and me.

 

There is no right or left.  Just thems that have and you and me.  Divine Rights of Capitalists and all that crap.

 

Somewhere Past Sticks & Stones

The UK Guardian reports a  UK court has given a UK hedge fund operator the green light to seek names of web posters from Wikipedia and Wordpress.  However,  whether the US companies will comply with a foreign court order is another thing.  Should be interesting to watch.

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Although the fellow's apparently going down the 'defamation' trail, not sure how far this would get, since "public figures" generally have a hard time suing over personal attacks here in the land where we don't have to stand on a soapbox to speak our minds.

 

Trade Gap

Looks like the trade gap with China is almost up to $12-billion a month with $11.43 billion in April.

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So let's see, here:  Gap is up, that means it should bring the dollar down, and with the dollar down, er, gold and silver should go up along with the markets today.  Yeah...that oughta do it.

 

Quakes & Shakes

Well, nothing big going on in the New Madrid or Pacific Northwest on the quake front, but a tsunami warning was issued - then canceled for what was first reported as a 7.1 but downgraded to an 6.8 in the Loyalty Islands in the South Pacific overnight.

 

Plus, there's been a good-sized swarm in Puerto Rico, too.  Say anything about that 2.6 in Western Montana and I'll slap you.  No, Yellowstone is not going off, sheesh.

 

Microsoft : The Phone Company?

I assume you're tracking the MSFT plan to buy Skype?  Here I came up with a really good name for the resulting company, but turns out it was used: MicroPhones.  Oh well...

 

There Goes the Homework

Speaking of which: Don't know about you, but Wikipedia was sure slow this morning - as though they might be having server issues, or some such.

 

Have to wonder if we've come to an Age where "dog ate my homework" excuses heard by teachers are being replaced with "Sorry, no homework because our broadband was down last night and I couldn't get online..."

 

Still, a good read on how well (or not) Wikipedia does may be found if you have 195-pages worth of free time to absorb "Critical Point of View: A Wikipedia Reader".

 

Shorter - but important for marketing geeks like moi, is the Eloqua "Grande Guide to Wikipedia".  10-pagesI can find time for, especially if it helps clients.

 

Coping: With an Ecuadorian Escape

I mentioned a few days back our thinking over (again) the idea of moving to a new part of the world.  Part for adventure, part to put the intertropical convergence zone between us and continuing Japanese radiation, and partly because we hold that if you're not going, you're dying.

 

I have not spent much time in Ecuador.  A 45-minute stopover on a flight from Panama to Lima back in the mid 1980's and about 45-more minutes at Guayaquil out in the Amazon (the jungle, not the book-peddlers) on the return trip.  And the maps of the place looked good.  Mountains, ocean, Amazon, what's not to be loved?

 

My brother-in-law - Panama Bates, being ex-SF and doing...er....let's not go there in S.A. for 10-years, or so, advised against it.  They don't take kindly to Americans was the gist of it.

 

On the other hand, we have a regular reader (& family) who seem to love it - and maybe we can solicit input from them. 

 

But in the meantime, a reader who's semi-retired back in the States sent us a sundown of his experiences which I thought you'd find interesting.

"Hi George,

Regular reader here with irregular ideas that put me in the PI [politically incorrect] grouping.

My wife and I lived in Guayaquil, Ecuador 1992 and 1993. Bought a 4 wheel drive Isuzu Trooper and drove it 22,000 miles throughout the country. We made two trips via road from Guayaquil to Quito and then east some 150 miles to Agri Lagria. That's out in the area where the oil fields are that straddle the border with Columbia. We traveled the country south to very near the Peru border and North up the coast to near the end of the country. So we saw most of Ecuador from the ground up. Stayed in local hotels many places. Traveled with no reservations mostly and found our own places to stay. That's another whole story.

We also took a weeks trip on the Flotilla. A boat on a major branch of the Amazon that is two decks high and some 125 feet long. Did day trips in small canoes, visited real native tribes in the forest. And most interesting to me....I swam in a river within a few feet of where passengers were catching Parhina fish out of the water. They said, the natives, it is OK the fish will not bother you. When they went in the water I could not resist doing this also. Swimming in a blackwater creek off of this major river branch of the Amazon. Wow!

The intermountain areas of Ecuador stay at a mild temperature range of 60 to 85 degrees year round. At about 6,000 to 8,000 feet there are many nice towns to choose from.

I would agree that moving there would be good. BUT ONLY during times of political and economic stability. That is not the case now in Ecuador.

It was stable when we were there and nice. We traveled to many areas that the locals who had been born there said we never go to. They said, it is unsafe. We found these areas completely friendly and safe. This was the FEAR factor in play. Today I would not attempt to duplicate what we did in 92/93.

Of course I was packing a S&W 38 police special. But the locals did not know that. It was illegal for me to have the gun. I bought it on the black-market from another American for $500, gun, holster and one box of shells. Sold it when we left for 16,000,000 Sucres. About $600 in conversion.

I was a science teacher at the [deleted/identifiable] School in Guayaquil. My observation of the geology of the Andes is this. Most of the lower level mountains from sea level up to 9,000 feet that we could see are unconsolidated material. With much rainfall the sides of the mountains give way and slide. We saw some recent slides from past years that had taken out several miles of switch backs on the Pan American highway. The real road was not replaced with asphalt but only a gravel road of rough dimensions with no drainage. Leaving pools of water to negotiate with unknown depths and size of rocks underwater. This is important because if the means to re-establish destroyed roads is not present you could get yourself isolated in an intermountain town with no way out.

Often asphalt roads are cracked and potholed. Potholes can be 6" to 3 feet across and several feet deep. Driving there is a free for all. It is not for the faint hearted nor non aggressive types.

In Ecuador the natives have the right under the law to accuse you of anything. You will be incarcerated and charged and taken to trial. Payoffs are steep. They often try to take advantage of foreigners. When they do this it is a quick bailout via your embassy and a quicker exit via airplane or by vehicle to Peru or Columbia if you are charged with a really serious crime. You leave everything behind and get out of dodge with no baggage [B.O.B.]

My recommendation is to not move to one of these countries under the current conditions. It is just too unstable.

I say: buy some rural property and build yourself a place to live on. Garden, build a fall out shelter, gather tools, fuel, food, know your neighbors and own an assortment of mechanical confrontational appeasement and/or decision making kind of tools along with the power units to make them project.

CONUS and USofA are still the best places to be.

Yes, we have done all the things above. We are on our 5 acres of rural land. Read your columns every day. Have of copy of Clif's work to watch. And listen and read others who have a good track record about projections for the future.

We are watching and waiting.

In 28 days I will be 70 and plan to be here to see 80.

Another reader - one in Ecuador - sent this:

I read with interest your following statement:  "Clif & I have a friend in Ecuador, though, and we're penciling out how much of a firewall the inter-tropical convergence zone will be...". 

Since I have been living in Cotacachi, Ecuador, since October, 2010, and have no plans to ever move back to the US, I would also appreciate having this information if you are willing to share it with me.  By "firewall", am I correct in assuming that you are referring to the type of solar flares that have been predicted to occur around 2012?   

FYI, Cotacachi has an elevation of about 7,800 feet in the Andes mountains of Northern Ecuador.  There has recently been a lot of cloud cover in this part of Ecuador, and I have wondered if these clouds could serve as a "firewall" against solar flares.  On the other hand, some people who have lived here much longer than I have, tell me that this cloudy/rainy season may go away during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. 

No, my reference was not to effects of the ITCZ as regards solar releases; I was thinking more in terms of the north-south air exchange which might delay the movement or radiation from Japan's meltdowns (and whatever comes along later) from moving south. I figured that the vertical mixing, along with the precip to do some washing/scrubbing,  might help a bit.

 

I think what influenced my thinking on this was Nevil Shute's novel "On the Beach" which  - way ahead of its time - suggested that radiation from a northern hemisphere nuclear war might take upwards of 6-months to reach Australia.

 

Restrictions On Travel

Have Demos Signed on To Fascism?

Once again, we see the creep of fascism/totalitarianism into America unchallenged and now even endorsed by one of the democorps.  This came Sunday as  WCBS reported on an interview in NYC with senator Chuck Schumer - democorp of NY - who according to the station website "Schumer calls for 'Do Not Ride' list for Amtrak."

 

This seems to me like another half-thought, half-baked, knee-jerk idea.  First, since subways are much more heavily traveled than Amtrak trains and are far easier to access.  And secondly, because upon inspection, there's may really another agenda doing on, like perhaps trying to discourage aliens (already scared by the radiation & touchy-feelies levels in airports) from taking intercity trains to move around? LOL...

 

For a party that once positioned itself as the defenders of rights that the republicorp was smashing, the democorps - via Schumer's "no ride list" are showing their corporate stripe.

 

Riding Amtrak is already a bad enough experience - I've been trying to find a decent train ride vacation for a couple of years and the routes and availabilities outright suck.  No longer a station in Tyler, Texas - a victim of "getting skinny" .  Which means driving miles & miles the wrong way to take a train somewhere.  Do I want to drive 130-miles to Shreveport to thread the needle to Chicago?  Pass the ViseGrips, I need a pinch.

 

But to now come out with the "Do Not Ride" list idea is ludicrous.  Amtrak (along with the rest of the railroad industry) has been working hard on the "skinny-down" business model.  And along comes another free-spender with this Security State plan.  Job creation scheming at its worst.

 

So rather than asking questions like "Where was that dialysis machine in bin Laden's quarters?" or "You really think those chain link fences installed where freeways cross over rail lines are going to prevent wild-eyed extremists?" we instead have done just what the terrorist mentality was after in the first place:  Stampeding of people in order to seize more civil liberties - which just causes more of a backlash against what is obviously ever-increasing governmental intrusion and authoritarianism.

 

What happened to the politicians where were going to roll-back the Patriot 2 & 3 provisions? 

 

Would someone please advise Herr Schumer that the terrorists were going to remove the trains from their tracks in their planning.  That was to be done from OFF the frigging trains, not ON them?

 

A Dallas DART station was evacuated when a man simply asked fror help carrying packages.

 

America's got enough problems with terrorism as it is.  We need people in leadership positions who can assess intel a little crisply than this.  Next thing you know, Schumer will be proposing a "No Shopping List" for the local malls.

 

And heaven help people who walk toward the security checkpoints with video cameras rolling.  You saw where four people were arrested in Denver last weekend for "suspicious" activity near a checkpoint?

 

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Monday May 9, 2011

Savory Numbers Week

Monday dawns here at the ranch with me heading for a stepladder as soon as I finish this morning's column to finish securing the runners on the new carport/truckport roof before we put on the roofing.  There shouldn't be too much action in the markets today, since we won't get into economic dart-throwing in a meaningful way until tomorrow's import & export prices, which will be followed by the Balance of Trade Wednesday.  Thursday sees producer prices, but the whole point of the week as far as the domestic economy comes Friday when the investor class will have whipped itself up into a major frenzy about the Consumer Price Index figures.

 

Realistically?  I expect food and energy will be up, but depending on how the cost of housing figures are juggled around, the overall increase (which there undoubtedly will be)  is as much the result of inflation as it will be due to the reallocation of household spending that's underway now.

 

If you used to spend $2 on housing for each $1 of gasoline and food, the drift is in the direction of $1 housing and $2 gasoline and food.  People miss the deflationary impacts of the economy because you don't write a check each month for housing deflation, but it's there if you run a personal balance sheet instead of doing just cashflow/check registering of your overall economic condition.

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Gold and silver are bouncing following last week's beat-down, and I expect we'll pop over $50 silver again shortly, notwithstanding the split of the market into two factions:  Paper silver which ETF's seem to find useful and the real street prices which are considerably higher.  Here's an eBay ad as an example which is offering a lot of 16 Libertads for $60 each.  One ounce bars are going for well over 'spot' - whatever that means.

 

Many of the online dealers I've looked at are out of stock on one ounce and 100 ounce bars.

 

Then there's the report that "Goldman see commodity recovery as slump erases $99 billion."  What at means is anyone's guess though.  Oftentimes, you'll see a big commodity player talking down a commodity while buying it (helps press prices down) or talking it up - while selling.  Us little people can't really do much but watch the eBay real prices and compare them with the out the door prices for paper abstractions on silver & gold - which seem to be getting further apart from reality lately.

 

Main thing I continue to watch is the currency see-saw, though.  Saw this morning that the Euro was up on the far side of the pond and that's driving down European markets a bit - and as the US dollar gives up a bit of recent strength, the metals are up - and I expect a decent gain for the US averages today based on currency, if nothing else.

 

I did like the Timo Soini bit in the WSJ-Euro editions that "Euro insolvency must be purged openly and honestly..."

 

But ain't never gonna happen - no-how.  Transparency has  - is - proving itself mostly just another marketing slogan that seems to be working on the wage-serfs and sheep quite nicely.  The latest Fed Consumer Debt report out last week showed continuer spending was continuing to increase.  As long as people keep whipping out their credit cards, the Beast is alive and well, thanks.

 

But Suppose Hyperinflation Really DOES Show UP...

The case for $5,500 silver next year is made as our contributing earthquake whiz has also reworked his hyperinflation model (Rev 2).  Curiously, as gasoline hits $80,000+ per gallon, even $2.1-million an ounce silver starts to lose it's bang...whew...mind opening stuff.

 

Narcissism

A huge amount of press this weekend seemed to focus on Osama bin Laden's reported videos of himself practicing for his next tele-threat.

 

Other media coverage paints a pretty ugly picture of the place where Osama was hiding; words like squalor and ramshackle with a side of rubbish doesn't exactly sound like the kind of conditions that lend themselves to recruiting neatniks for their cause.

 

Wonder if that's somehow programmed in at the subconscious level from looking at bombing aftermaths?

 

Rising Rivers

Not getting away from the flooding in the Mississippi River valley as more homes are being abandoned in the Memphis area.

 

Remember we were talking a second ago about the shift in household spending - more for food and gasoline?  Well, here's where it comes from.  "Arkansas flooding, rainfall hinders rice production across state..." and other stories like "Corn, Soybeans May Rise as Adverse Weather Threatens World Crops."

 

The flip side of things is the extreme drought in Texas and parts further west which is pushing winter wheat production to five-year lows.

 

Quake Spotting

Your attention is directed to Chihuahua, Mexico this morning.  Not that the (as of press time) 3.8 quake there is so much of a Big Deal by itself, but there's  what seems like a cluster developing there, just down the road a short piece from El Paso (map).

 

Another one to keep an eye on is the continuing activity - including this 3.9 shaker this morning - up near Hawthorne, Nevada.

 

Although its a fair distance away, we keep thinking that any kind of earthquake activity in the region of the Yucca Mountain nuclear repository plans ought to be carefully considered.

 

If you haven't ever read it, this note about the EPA 2009 ruling on Yucca Mountain should give you a glimpse into how government plans to be around forever.  Try this revealing sentence off Wikipedia:

"...For the first 10,000 years, the EPA would retain the 2001 final rule’s dose limit of 15 millirem per year. This is protection at the level of the most stringent radiation regulations in the U.S. today. From 10,000 to one million years, EPA established a dose limit of 100 millirem per year...."

Makes me want to believe in reincarnation so's I can come back and see which lasts longer:  EPA/government or the radiation/crap.  My bet's presently on the  nuclear waste...

 

High Radiation Levels

The Chinese are reporting this morning that "Japan detects radiation up to 700 millisieverts at Fukushima nuke plant."

 

Which is what?  Well, the Adult US limit is 5000 millirems per year according to this summary from MIT.

 

Next, we flip over to www.convertworld.com and push in 5000 millirems to get a handle on how many millisieverts that is.  Answer?  50 millisieverts.

 

A quick aikido flip of the calculator says that those reported levels are a year's worth of  radiation in just 1/14 of an hour.

 

Can't get much past the country that brought us PlayStations, though.  They've already come to the conclusion that workers will probably need lead shielding to get things stabilized.  Didn't need to unholster the calculator...

 

Then there's the Chubu Electric Power Company which idling plants 4&5 at Hamoaka (Shizuoka prefecture).  Putting in additional EQ protection systems.

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Not that America's nuclear projects aren't without troubles.  I'm still wondering how that larger-than-permitted release of radioactive tritium  into the Mississippi River about a week ago happened.  Then again, so is the Nuclear Regulator Commission. 

 

Offishuls (sic) are saying that there's no danger due to dilution by the high water levels, but still...not what I'd pick to mix up the Kool-Aid with.

 

Coping: Is the World Really Ending?

I had the opportunity on Sunday to talk with a another web writer/economist type and exchange views and it struck me - after this fellow said it was his view the Dollar was really dying and that the whole world financial system would collapse - at least as far as the US is concerned - in a matter of months - that despite 50-pound sacks of pessimism heaped on around here most mornings, there's still a chance of an uncomfortable, but nevertheless real muddle-through outcome.

 

To be sure, the dollar may have a lot more downside to it, but for now, the trend over the last week, or so, has been for the dollar to hand on to at least some of its recent gains, which I'm guessing will prevent the market from screaming ahead to new highs just yet.

 

In fact, I could make an argument that the major market averages are still somewhere between ½ to 1 percent higher priced than they oughta be based on my (peculiar) view that FOREX may drive market prices as much as current headlines.

 

Oh sure, the price of gasoline has hit the wallet pretty good lately, but we also note that stories were about this weekend that in the short term, gasoline might drop 50¢ in coming weeks.

 

Sure, sure, that doesn't mean good times are here - and that further tick up in the unemployment numbers last week isn't anything to pop the champagne over.  Still, the odds of a muddle-through seem at least as good as the complete collapse of the US into total - and unrecoverable - anarchy.

 

People write me on a daily basis suggesting that things are on the verge of collapse and that will happen as soon as the US dollar loses half - or more of its value.

 

But my counter to that is "The dollar has lost half its value not once but many times in recent economic history - and it's bound to do so again."

 

For example, if you had $100 in 1937, it would only take until 1958 for its purchasing power to be cut roughly in half. That's 21-years.

 

Then again, from 1958 until 1976, the US dollar lost about half its purchasing power - this time in a shade more than 18-years.

 

Wanna go again?  From 1976 to 1987 - a mere 11-years this time - the Dollar lost about half its purchasing power again.

 

And again?  From 1987 to this year the dollar has lost almost half its purchasing power once again.  But you see what's changed?  The length of time it has taken has actually increased a bit -- to 24 years.

 

Oh sure, we've got the prepper stuff "in the bag" and yes, our conduct in world affairs looks suspiciously like a crack addict breaking into people's countries to steal their natural resources (actual drugs come to think of it in Afghanistan, oil elsewhere like Iraq and soon-come Libya).

 

But a 'muddle-through' is what we hope for and while it's tempting to say "The world's really going to end" the rational person doesn't completely 'flee the system' since it does afford us all a pretty nice standard of living and at least some opportunity for upward mobility.

 

Yes, the markets may suffer and metals soar as the US dollar declines.  But go completely away?  I doubt that.

 

While we've contemplated, however briefly, a move to Ecuador, Chile, and some points further south - like Uruguay, the further decline of the dollar can be hedged in simpler ways in the relative comfort of our present digs by buying additional solar panels and so forth.

 

Near as I can figure it, if the US dollar does total collapse, being in the USA with the enterprising mindset we've got is still preferable to being in countries which don't have anywhere near as much of the one asset that government hasn't figured an easy way to tax yet in this country:

 

Hustle.

 

Monday at the WuJo

Storm Jitters

Daughter Denise has been working on improving her "paranormal" abilities and is convinced that the US will see a hurricane beyond Category 5 this year in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Interesting that she has it coming across Cancun and then 'hooking' around to come at NOLA.  No idea where this came from; maybe because she lived in NOLA for a while, or maybe it's been windy in Seattle.

 

Still, interesting to note such things, which is what our www.nationaldreamcenter.com project is about.

 

I've told her for focus on lottery numbers or stock picks.