A One Man Economic Daily Newspaper about the Second Depression in near real-time...
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February 4, 2011 08:10 AM CST
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Is 9 Percent Unemployment Credible?
The first use of the ViceGrips (the better to pinch ourselves with) is to read this morning's unemployment report: Just 9% is what's claimed:
Our favorite details: The CES Birth Death Model showed a drop of 339,000 for the month, and since 23,000 CES jobs were lost in manufacturing, we're wondering where the January growth really was?
ViceGrips ready? CES took out 23,000 manufacturing jobs and at the same time the report claims that "Manufacturing added 49,000 jobs in January." That means manufacturing would have added 72,000 jobs in January and that's on top of swelling inventory numbers reported two weeks ago. Wait, did I catch a whiff of something?
Well, here's another thing: the Civilian Labor Force just up and statistically dropped by over half a million people (Table B) while the number of "not in labor force" went up 157,000. So right there is your "increase" in the jobs.
Oh wait...in the data tables here, we see the labor force went from 153.156 million to 152.536 million. Where did 620-thousand people go? Rapture or something I missed?
Without this disappearing people, the unemployment rate would be around 10%.
I'm trying to figure out where 236,000 Hispanic workers statistically disappeared to from the Labor Force number, too, as long as I'm doing a missing persons summary.
The hard core unadjusted A-15, Table U6 is still 17.3%...up dramatically from the 16.6% rate. So did a bunch of people just fall off the counting due to benefits running out?
St. Louis Fed Truth Detector?
So, you're thinking to yourself, maybe George is just overstating things when it gets all worked up, vexed, and disconcerted by the employment report.
Nope. I and pleased to share this (shocking) reality check from the the St. Louis Federal Reserve web site:
Think of the series as something like the BLS Labor Participation rate less unemployment rate. Oh, and this is my expectation for markets in a nutshell - just in general outline form.
Oh, and the Baltic Dry Index is still sinking, too...
Egypt: The Business Model Rules - For Now
I was struck Thursday by the report that Egyptian president Mubarak said to ABCNews that he was fed up with being president, but that to leave might cause Egypt to descend into 'chaos'.
What Mubarak and whoever his advisors still don't "get" is that chaos is assured if they don't step aside. Might hold together over the weekend, but I'm guessing no later than mid next week, things will really be in the crapper.
Seeing Hillary Clinton's performance was embarrassing, too. Why would she be calling for "talks"? The people of Egypt want change not talk. Obviously, the PowersThatBe/PowersThatWere have missed a key point:
Smoke and hype only sells for so long - then people 'take it to the street' and Tunisia and Egypt go. And the longer & harder the US tries to defend the corporatist paradigm, the more bad press we're going to generate. That much is clear.
What should be clear, I think, is that the current business model is going down the road and the Obamanistas are negotiating not so much peace as moving those Mubarak business/military deals lasting as long as possible. Wrap that up under the banner of 'talk' and 'orderly change' and maybe someone will salute it, but not me.
Game Theory 101: Everyone is trying to not take sides; understandable since Egypt has been a fine business model so far. Cheap Canal rates, good defense customer, charade of 'peace talks' in the Middle East...which moves at glacial, revenue-optimized speed....and each of these plays into multiple business models, not the least of which is arms sales.
I'm sure you remember that the US is far and away the world's largest arms exporter? While it would be nicey-nice to naively believe the US is involved in global politics for humanitarian reasons, such as spreading democracy, the fact is, the economy would already have further/more noticeably imploded, if we didn't have US Arms Dealers profiting at every turn. And don't even get me going on the FMS (Foreign Military Sales) programs.
The US "pitch" globally is insincere and people see it: We're a peaceable, democratic people but one of our largest national business models is based on making things so that other nations may kill people and break things.
The corporate apologists claim that If we don't make them, someone else will." And that's true, but only so far as it goes. The whole international community including the UN is a sham if - after 50+ years - there has been next to no progress on limiting international arms profiteering. Good money in death, is there?
Indigenous and thinking peoples around the world are waking up to, thanks to the telecommunications revolution. Only thing that remains is how the global mass consciousness will deal with it.
But it's clear that Iran is ramping up its PR campaign to oust Mubarak, with ayatollah Ali Khamenei urging revolution against Mubarak who they characterize as an "enemy of the Palestinians" and "The most important protector of the Zionist regime' (referring to Israel).
Our past corporate-driven agenda is catching up with us.
The US may be heading down the road of decaying Empire because we have - and continue - to fail to exercise our moral leadership when it comes to arms and revolutions. The reason? We are not willing to suffer the changes in lifestyle that would come from rethinking the death industry. Yes, things would decline and maybe death industries will always be around.
About here, I might toss out that besides leaders, there's more finger pointing going on. I refer you to the Reuters story that "Vodafone accuses Egypt govt of co-opting network" to send out their provocateurs.
So if I sound a little bit cynical on the topic of Egypt, please forgive me.
This is a conflict between business models as I see it, and the US/West doesn't really want things to change, as least in ways which might impact oil prices through the Suez, or disrupt pending military sales. Business models need to evolve is the thinking; that much is obvious.
Presidents Washington and Jackson advised against 'foreign entanglements' but they didn't have to face monthly unemployment reports like the one just out, either.
So I'm pretty much frustrated by the whole conflict, since B-school training makes me look at the whole thing like it's a product recall problem in a marketing class. The "Mubarak product" has been recalled by consumers, but the parent company spent the first 2-weeks of crisis waffling on whether the product ought to be recalled, while the consumers in the Middle East made it clear to everyone but an idiot that they aren't taking no for an answer.
The Blizzard of 2011 is finally petering out. The Wayfaring Traveler blog has a dandy picture of what life was like in northern New Mexico, when the heat went out. Here at the ranch, we have about an inch and a half on the ground and the wisdom of my leaving our back-up gas heater in place in the house paid off handsomely...or should I say it was comforting? Gas still off in parts of New Mexico at press time.
Hospitals in Dallas are none too keen on the rolling blackouts in this region. Short - 15-minutes outages - are just disruptive as hell to medical electronics which need to be reset with changes...
And, although Mexico made an offer to sell Texas power, they've reportedly now back out of it. Seems sending 10% of their population to the US, many packing drugs as border crossing payments to coyotes is OK, but selling power to Texas when we need is it not.
With friends like this, we haven't fenced our border? Gag me.
Oh, don't read - whatever you do - this Free Republic article under the headline "Will ATF Gunwalker Scandal Take down President Obama?"
(more after this...)
Kinder, Gentler Cyclone
A reader/report in Oz sends this on Yasi...
You do that and let us know...
Budget battle Looming
And if being out of power, natural gas, and all the rest isn't enough of a challenge, comes now the story of how our political "leadership" (I use the ViseGrips to be able to write that) is now heading toward a government shutdown because of budget disagreement.
Another Piece of 9/11
Don't know if you happened to notice it, but the Washington Post this week had a story about how a leaked diplomatic cable has revealed three more people involved in 9/11. Three previously not admitted members of what seems to have been a Washington & NYC surveillance team.
Now, since this information should have been available to the 9/11 Commission report, we have to wonder if the lack of this item (which further leads to asking how many other teams, and who paid for all this?) can be taken as "it follows..." evidence the 9/11 report was a whitewash? Which of course....since it didn't include the mover/moving company and such.....
Census says says the number of people living in New Orleans and environs is down one third in the past decade. Seems to me, as the country slips into a second dip in the economy, real estate in Louisiana might be a long-term "sleeper". Inland from Corexit, of course...and with a bass boat in the yard, just in case or flooding this spring...
Oysters are vanishing due to over harvesting at disease according to a new report due out from the American Institute of Biological Sciences.
Not sure what "functionally extinct" means, since I can still find 'em in the store now and then.
Maybe the term is like "functionally literally". Doesn't seem mean we do very good at electing people....
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Coping: Hard Data, Soft Data
We begin with a short story: On Thursday afternoon, I suggested to my visiting son that we 'make a fire' since it was cold as hell outside, snow was expected today, I had a good Texas-sized bonfire ready for burning, and why not?
He asked the reasonable questions like "Dad, how do we start it?" To which I explained that in a true 'survival' situation we wouldn't be so wasteful of fuel, but in this case, I figured about 3-4 gallons of diesel on this somewhat soggy logs ought to get them going.
Sorry I didn't take pictures of the fire. The pile of wood was about 6-7 feet high, stacked up to allow both good air flow, but not so much as to let all the heat escape without drying the other wood and, in turn, getting it read to burn.
Once the 'core' of the fire took off (about an hour and several good doses of diesel) I tossed a few more logs on the fire; tossed, that is, if you remember these logs were 10-14" in diameter and anywhere from 4-10 feet in length - bucked to approximately the 500-pound lift capacity of the tractor bucket.
With the fire site was about 400 feet south from the house, wind from north at about 4 gusting 8 kept the smoke awake just perfectly.
So the 'art' I was showing was how to a) pick up a log onto the bucket forks without getting dirt into the load which would dampen the fire, b) how to angle in to the fire to place the wood just so in that tee-pee shake that works wonderfully (once burning), and c)( how to accomplish step [b)] by driving into the fire, dumping the load, and retreating before the tires catch fire, or the glasses you're wearing melt.
As I said, it was a marvelous fire.
Panama and George then went for an evening hike of a few miles, and since temps were still in the low 20's, upon return, they stood around the fire for about a half-hour, telling - near as I can figure - life adventure stories. I hope Panama told George about having to run a particular PT course twice in it was either Ranger school, or SF training (forgot which) and I expect George would have told his streaking naked through a dorm at the University of Washington, or repelling down the site of a 12-story hotel in Seattle on a bet.
Fires serve a dandy function when times are bad, cold, or just as a bonding kind of experience. A shared fire is a bridge-between humans.
But that's not the point of the tale. There's something else.
Occasionally, I'll write up something either here, or on the Peoplenomics side which may not seem particularly like "hard" data. Like this morning's jobs report.
Sometimes, information that's soft - like our review of the Texas-sized bonfire with 10-15-foot high flames for an hour or so once it really got going - is just as important.
The reason is contexting. Sure, the jobs data is important if you're trading the market actively. But, if you're not, and if you happen to ever be in such a situation where you put a fire together outdoors, maybe you'll think back to this little discussion about soft data.
You see pictures of people, oftentimes in movies, sharing a 55-gallon barrel in which something (trash, some old pallet wood, of whatever, is burning. You also will nearly as often find people standing around the fire barrel warming themselves.
The soft learning point is that warmth is easy to share, can't be boxed up and stored, naturally attracts other cold humans, and when two or more people are huddled around a fire warming themselves, they're going to talk.
Mostly, they don't seem to talk about sub-routines in a complex PERL script, the prospects for closing the big sale in Chicago, the next options trade which might be placed next week when we hit our spiral calendar and Gann date around Feb. 8th.
Rather, they talk about 'humany' stuff. Where they've been, what they've done, some joint sharing of "how could we cook steak-on-a-stick on this?" and all the other things that go with living in the present.
Sure, the Super Bowl this weekend will provide some opportunity for gathering/sharing of 'soft' data, but odds are a good-sized warming fire on a cold days outdoors would be as good - or better.
Too many times, both in our "leadership" and in other people, we focus on the "hard" data and more often than not, those data points are what we can measure that make us "different" from others.
The soft data (clustering around a fire, for example, or gathering to watch the social-ritual of war on TV with a side order of cheerleaders) is every bit as important.
Not everyone is out to get us, and warming our hands around a fire, or putting off that terrible thirst & hunger that seems to accompany watching football, is a fine time to practice 'soft data gathering'.
Like who'd be dumb enough to take the Steelers and five. We'll just send them along to the next fire down the road. Here they had a few cans of beans going, too.
Friday at the WuJo
Listen - Here
You know what we've been considering for a good lone while, namely that what might be hinted at in 2012 is another 'Universe' could pass through ours and we might get 'windows' to move between realities?
Well, toss this one on the fire:
My guess - and it's only that - is that the ramp up to this kind of thing will be distinctly nonlinear. So we're not even to the real rising part of the hockey stick yet.
BTW, Elaine & I are doing the occasional post on the blog portion of the www.nationaldreamcentger.com site. Interesting stuff comes through there.
Bot Notes: Saving Face
A reader note about one of the items in the new Shape of Things To Come report makes for some interesting thoughts:
LOL, yes, I'm pretty sure Clif wouldn't have a problem with mentioning it, because 1) everything's a business model and the public might benefit from at least a low level awareness and 2) because the PTB/PTW do seem under some compulsion to publish their plays in advance. And as one highly placed PTB type in SoCal told a mutual acquaintance, "the movie is the message." So, yes, if I were lecturing at the Nano-Warfare Design College, I'd make sure that one of the papers in my lecture series would be an assignment to watch "Batman & Joker".
Along the way, some of the smarter students would discover there's a whole Batman Wiki project.
The point, however, would not be to rehash movies which might be "hints in plain sight" but rather to look at various distribution channels for different ways to distribute digital nasties.
Might be something - as was hinted in by the Batman flick - a binary agent, or, alternatively just a solo nano device which has to be in place for some period of time before activating. Oxidizing surface layers, or long term moisture activation, for example.
So might a very cautious person start to stockpile and then do a rotating inventor of six to nine months, if make-up, personal hygiene products and the like are used? Yeah, maybe...
Still...even to think in this regard (movie ---> linguistic hints ---> Preparation and isolation plans) is a fine example of the linguistic dissection hints that goes into analyzing one of Clif's reports.
And if that's too deep for you, just set up a news flag on cosmetics and keep watching to see if ugly developments arise.
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Computational Revolutionary Dynamics
With the situation in multiple countries now feeding into the predictive linguistics around the idea of a global revolution (GlobalRev) it's time to consider the multiple tiered threat structure facing the globalistas/PowersThatBe who are heavily invested in continuing a social paradigm of production and control which (how convenient is this?) puts them at the pinnacle of the food chain and very much above/aloof from the people who thought they were really in power in various semi-democracies worldwide. Sounding too academic for you? How about "Government gets virtualized?" Also: How to read a web bot report...
The "Do Drop Inn"
Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com
Post your weird dreams to help our research along:
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
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Thursday February 3, 2011
While the Dow was off seeing the north side of 12,000 for the first time in years, there was more trouble brewing on the horizon. The closely watched Baltic Dry index - an indicator of future shipping and trade activity - has dropped down to levels not seen since going into the March 2009 lows.
Still, the BDI as it's called, tends to get down to terrible lows before - rather than after - major market lows. Which may explain why mainstream economics seem to hold it in disdain: It works and it's predictive and that might require something other than pots of oil, incantations and books of arcane formulae.
On the other hand, a couple of good numbers came in this morning, which we'll get to in a sec...
Fresh violence is feared in Egypt today, following reports of gunfire and Mubarak backed 'fake police/agitators being reported in the crowds. As Al Jazeera is reporting this morning, it's the loyalistas versus the demonstrators, who are labeled 'pro-democracy; but which version & vision of that we're not clear.
Have to admire the Egyptian military for trying to stand between the two sides - good decisions being made there, but as I watched the live coverage on Al Jazeera last night, I couldn't help but wonder "Which of those Molotov cocktails being tossed off the buildings would be the spark that ignites the nation?
Or, the region...
People are flooding into the capital of Yemen today, apparently not happy with the plans of the president there who is refusing to step down now and instead plans to serve out his term. Day of Rage their calling it.
The folks at FEMA has declared Oklahoma a disaster area:
Here at the ranch, I canceled PT first time it got down to 50º in the fall of 2007 and just never got around to reinstituting it...one of these days....maybe...
And When It Melts...
A reader suggests looking at the Intellicast observed snowfall map here. And then goes on to ask: "How many 100, 500, 1000 year floods will happen this spring with the amount of snow cover across the US?"
We were talking about Howard Hill's roof rake quest yesterday - and today we're reading in the Hartford Courant that his fears are justified with all the roofs collapsing around the state.
Not as bad as some people feared, but take a look at the pictures out of Australia where cyclone Yasi's been through Queensland. Almost reminds me of the aftermath of a hurricane down in Florida...right down to the palm fronds.
And a reader suggests the Australian Broadcasting site for more, like this one.
Our Indonesia Bureau Chief offers this:
I'm just sure they'd rather give some back....
The Daily Data
Main feature of markets this morning is likely to be the employment report just out:
Later on this morning, we get factory orders but most important will be the unemployment rate numbers which could be all over the place. Reason is that normally there's a CES Birth/Death Model correction this time of the year, and if my hunch is right, it will put still more 'lipstick on the pig.'
Won't make it any more believable to people who are being cut, but for the undecided on such things, it will be another 'government says, therefore it must be true' to point toward.
A friend (who's planning a $100-million hedge fund based on his research, so I listen closely) tells me to keep an eye on February 8th (next Tuesday) since that will be a harmonic in his work off last May's mini-crash which worked into lows in July. Manic low, spiral and other calendar calc, and off we go to a manic/panic echo high Feb 8th he's guessing.
The interesting part of this is he could be right: The situation in Egypt might go into a holding pattern....or, if things collapse quickly, the market may blow it all off for another trading week. We shall see.
Happy (?) 16th Amendment Day
If you want something hotter - and more worrisome to the PowersThatBe/PowersThatWere, you can skip the birth certificate discussion and move on to he more finance-critical issue of whether the 16th Amendment was really ratified on February 3, 1913, as claimed by (who else?) the government.
Also a fine day to read the Supreme Court decision in Pollock v. Farmers' Land & Trust Co. According to Wikipedia:
Justice John Marshall Harlan dissented:
But where things get murkier still is on the issue of adoption.
A review of this part of Wikipedia lays the groundwork.
But if you click over to the Give me Liberty website, you can find a very different account of events. Their article claims that of the 48 states, 8 states did not approve or ratify, 2 were barred by the own constitutions, and there were other issues with 11 states.
Since 36 states were needed to officially ratify, some have held that only about 27 actually ratified it.
Which leaves some adherents claiming that the federal government doesn't have the legal authority to tax.
Like it, or more likely not, the power to tax comes from the possession of overwhelming force. And since regular citizens don't have that and government does, the point of whether to file an income tax return is kinda moot. File, or else.
Lots of people have tried to skip out on it, and every year about this time I start to get a whole flood of emails from people asking me is this new latest scheme or that is 'legal'. Don't waste your time asking. Whether it's legal as tax avoiders claim isn't something I'm going to get involved in. That's a road that often enough ends in a 6 by 10 box that I'm not interested.
Like spending money on a radar detector, investing in tax-dodging scheme is a questionable investment. And no, I don't own a radar detector anymore, either. Driving is much more relaxed.
Coping: The Alternative Retirement Plan
A reader - seeing the state pension story out of New Jersey titled "Christie says 'sue me' as Pensioners Challenge Cuts" brings this comment:
A familiar rant around here is this: America has been in habited for 50-years with what I call 'paper salesmen' - namely the financial services industry's retirement game.
Here's the notion - which maybe 90% of the older generation bought into: If you buy enough paper - and it says the right stuff on it - then you will have a 'life of plenty' when you get to retirement. Now, as we are learning today, this doesn't always work. And not just in New Jersey, but also in California, and other states which are up against the budget wall.
Is there/ was there ever a viable alternative?
Oh, sure. Look at it this way: Assuming that someone works for $15 an hour - far from a princely sum, to be sure, and they do this diligently for 2,000 hours per year for their 40-year working life, they should be able to figure out how to buy a little something for retirement.
As I've told you before, you go to www.unitedcountry.com and you'd be amazed as the number of small town homes on a couple of acres you can find in the Midwest and how inexpensive they are.
The homes meeting the one acre, 2 bedroom category isn't huge, but you can find them in Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Kentucky and such places.
May not be the biggest, grandest properties, to be sure. But given a choice between 1800 square feet and land to do some gardening on, in / near a small town where you can walk many places, or living at someone else's leisure in a big city - where everything is a bill - I think you can guess at what the choice is?
By saving for medical emergencies, and through some diligence when it comes to hobbies, a person facing retirement either now or in a few years, can put themselves in a position much better insulated from economic disasters, like the rounds of state retirement system cuts that seems to be in the works.
Frankly, I hate to see it: Just another example of promises made, promises broken.
But, given that's a repeating pattern, a thinking person always has the option of doing something other than what the rest of the herd is doing.
Street Level Economics
Price-demand curve function: Hungry people will pay more for food than full people. Historically, something like 23-30% of household income went for food - and here lately, seems to me we're at about half that. Housing comes down, food goes up...rotation in economic cycles.
Here's something the USDA put together a few years back (1997):
A much more recent list from the Census Bureau puts the figure at 6.8% in 2008 (different statistical basis likely) but look at the countries in the 40% percent of income for food: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and so forth.
Trend is for places with the most spendy real estate to have lower fractions spend on food. We call this "progress." Till you get tossed out when the prices collapse. The we call it "Change."
"Everything's a Business Model" is our motto around here. And here's another reader catching on:
Fact is, if the whole world could learn to get along, we could invest more globally in human development. But that would put the whole arms/police/legal industries out of work, or at least lower the workload a lot. Can't have that now, can we? Nope - that would mean large portions of the population would not be beholden to a business model and freedom like that is dangerous stuff. Why, already in the last month we've seen the Internet turns off places because people got a little too free....
Thursday at the WuJo
Everyone knows about crop circles, right? But have you heard about the snow circles that are showing up around treats in the Gloucestershire, England area? The pictures off Signs of the Times were somehow missed when they appeared in December, but worth mentioning now since so many more people have snow to look at...
Interesting reader comment on the snow, too:
I don't look at it so much as an argument in science any more so much as a showdown between competing business models.
Credit to Dads
A reader up skiing in Canada spied this gem in a gift shop at Whistler Mountain:
Not that all kids are spoiled, just many of them are.
Frankly, the national bank of dad has probably forgiven more debt than all the TARP monies and then some.
Still, nice to see that someone besides me sees it for what it is. Intergenerational sharing, some times involuntary.
Then out story about 1111 got this note back:
I try not to do any addition of anything but caffeine at this hour...
Wednesday February 2, 2011
Got an email this morning from the Army that "Only mission essential Fort Riley Military and Civilian personnel need to report to work on Wednesday, Feb. 2. " Reason? That huge winter storm which is blasting eastward this morning and socking it to the East Coast now.
This is a current (as of press time) snap of the NOAA satellite image of water vapor...see how it's being sucked up and to the east? Not good if you've already got a full roof of snow in the Northeast.
24-inches of the crap in Chicago which caused a rare shutdown of O'Hare. That'd be that blue water vapor concentration coming down to Chicago...
Seeing as my son is flying down from Seattle today to spend some time at the ranch, I don't suppose I have to remind you that this will likely mean delays in flights out west because of delayed equipment arrival?
This being Ground Hog Day, we can blame this one squarely on Punxsutawney Phil, the crackhead rodent that people in Pennsylvania look to for knowledge about weather trends. He's predicting an early spring.
My take on this is a little more acerbic: I figure residents of a state who look to a rodent of the family Sciuridae for weather forecasts probably also believe in the mythical free lunch, since with a little more financial acuity, they might not be in a $4-billion state budget hole. Just sayin...some folks are easily snowed.
Especially this morning.
A reader in Oklahoma sends this:
Winter of 2011 goes toward the record books....
Australia's Next Disaster
Cyclone about to hit shore there - send in pictures, please.
Learn gardening while your weather-bound. Famine could follow such things...
Hunting Al Qaeda's Planners
There is a developing spectrum of reports which may be leading up to the use of a 'terrorist' nuke here in the US if you connect the dots a certain way.
A beginning might be the Telegraph report out of the UK "WikiLeaks: FBI hunts the 9/11 gang that got away." is a good starting point.
Flashback: The reason this is such an interesting story is that this search for an unknown team echoes something I told you about a few years ago, I think. My 'consigliore' - a lawyer up in Ohio - reported to his local police department that right before 9/11 he saw a group of Middle Eastern types including one who was the spitting image of Osama bin Laden, driving around Columbus taking videos. He duly reported this to the local authorities and nothing came of it. But I remember when he told me this story "Oh-oh...ain't that strange..."
Well, now, turns out that story may have some legs under it - and odds, near as I can figure it - are very high that prior to 9/11 there was a lot of video being taken by al Qaeda types and this Telegraph story tells me there's something there.
Next dot to connect is the story out this week that Pakistan - which we remember from earlier reports has already promised at least one nuke to the Saudis - has a growing nuclear stockpile of perhaps 100 - or more - nukes.
And the next dots are small, but important: In Egypt, the word is the Islmaic Brotherhood will not accept the Mubarak promise not to run for re-election as sufficient response to their demands, so that tinderbox continues with a slow burning fuse which may be going off as early as this weekend.
The way Human Events has it figured, an "Islamist Future Looms in the Mideast."
The president of Yemen is throwing in the towel in 2013 - but even this announcement - and a similar dodge being tried by the government of Jordan playing musical cabinet ministers - will not likely meet the demands of the increasingly polarized Brotherhood followers.
And this , in turn, will leave Israel in a lurch, with a very interesting view of things in the Debka report "Separate whirlwinds demolish two Middle East figures in one day."
Then there's the matter of markets. Whether the attack of 9/11 was a bait and switch to keep the public from realizing the Second Depression was dawning, of whether Osama bin Laden is a better market trend picker than most, is something that could be hotly debated, I'm sure.
But if the Dow heads up to the 12,100-12,200 level and then collapses under the 10,000 range, I'll be the guy checking the old fashioned D cells used by my old field survey meter. Al Qaeda might be better market timers than me.
Signs of Recovery: First thing up this morning is the monthly reading on job cuts from Challenger, Gray & Christmas...
Still, while it's a sign of recovery, a long rounding bottom is what seems to be in store, if the market doesn't tumble before busting out higher.
Still, a second data point which keeps things in perspective is the latest Mortgage Banker's Association weekly report where I've highlighted a couplke of things:
Question is: Is the stock market getting ahead of the rounding bottom - if it keeps rounding and doesn't head seriously lower?
Good AP story worth pondering: Now that a judge down in Florida has ruled against some key parts of the Obamacare legislation, their headline is "Too big to stop? Obama's overhaul lumbers on..."
This puts the capper on living 62-years. Never thought I'd live in a world where there would be calls for an "Overhaul to overhaul the overhaul's overhaul." But, we're getting there quick.
Good choice not dropping acid in high school. Otherwise, I'd be convinced we're all living in some kind of flash-back world...
End of World: Delayed
The headline at Before It's News is grabby - I'll give it that: "NASA Issues 2012 Warning on Possible End of The World".
We track this back to the Solar Storm Warning Site, which headline "NASA 2012 Researchers say intense solar storm coming in 2012" and on that site we find the NASA story circa 2006 "Researchers say a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years."
All of which would be scary, except for one thing: All of this hand-wringing is based on a normal recovery from the solar minimum. But, as any ham radio operator who has invested in 10-meter and six-meter gear anticipating great sunspot propagation in 2012-2013 will tell you, the current Solar Cycle 24 has turned into something of a dud, astrophysically speaking.
While the old 2006 story keeps recirculating, the fact is - in case no one pointed it out to you - is that the Marshall Space Flight Center (where they launch marshals?) issued a press release early this year which dashes talk of the world ending (at least from this cause) in 2012:
Does this entirely negate the "Boeing Engineer" story? That was the one where a reported Boeing engineer had moved to high ground because of uncertainty about the local interstellar cloud of dust... No, story is still valid, but since I became aware of this, several personal strategies have changed and you might as well be aware of them.
So, in case the conventional/MSM media haven't mentioned this to you, while one interpretation of the interstellar cloud was that it would really cause the sun to fire off, the other possibility is now before us: It could just further reduce heat/light output from the Sun.
Oh, and besides ruining food output plans, that kind of mass cooling would almost certainly bring on all kinds of earthquake activity since the shrinking of cooling earth would cause what? Even more quakes.
But the scariest possibility of all? In 2013 there will still be life and although food prices might be two to three times larger as a fraction of household budgets, you'll still have to file your income tax return just like in 2012, 2011 and so on.
Maybe that's the scariest prospect of all.
Coping: With Blizzards and Cold
Not that I mind the cold snap, but it's not making my life any easier, and I'm (for the most part) a pretty happy-go-lucky sort.
Because the wind was blowing out of the north at 30+ and the temps were into the low 20's, our local ham radio club scrapped plans for the usual first-Tuesday-monthly ham club meeting. Seems (other then me) there aren't too many people anxious to show up for a hamburger feed while standing around pontificating this fine point of radio, or that.
Another problem here at the ranch which has come into focus is household instrument calibration inconsistencies. Seems not one of the thermometers around here, digital or analog, agree.
I was going to look at the one on the front porch, but decided that in order to take micro-climate effects of proximity to the house out of it, I'd just go with the three coldest and guess it's about 17, or so. Maybe I'll just go with damn cold and let it go at that. But that north deck one hits the trash this morning since it's the outlier.
A Timely Ad Series
You may notice that this morning's report has three new ads from Emergency Essentials, with whom I've done business for going on six years now. The thing worth noting is how timely these are. One ad is for 3-day packs MRE's. Timing-wise, nothings a better example of how prudent it is to keep at least 6-days of food on hand for everyone in the family. Storms, blizzards like this one going on in much of the country, floods (those'll come later this spring), and hurricanes (later still) are all examples of Ma Nature come-a-calling without sending an engraved invite.
The other ad - the small ones about their baking sale - is just as important when it comes to keeping spirits high. Don't know about you, but nothing is better on a solidly frozen morning than being able to whip up something hot out of the oven. The kinds of smells that can't be beat on a cold morning - to pick a favorite assortment - would be cornbread, bacon, and coffee.
Admittedly, that's not going to be a popular choice with the cardiologists who read this column, but as Tim Ferris notes in his book (The 4-Hour Body: An Uncommon Guide to Rapid Fat-Loss, Incredible Sex, and Becoming Superhuman - $14 at Amazon), when you're cold, you burn through calories at several times the usual rate. A low-dose aspirin's in my mix, too, just to shade the odds against a Big One.
Nice thing about a blizzard is that you don't have to mess with ice packs on your upper back to get your body into super cal burning mode. Just getting the mail, shoveling the walk, or knocking down some ice dams ought to be a start for most people.
Speaking of storm notes, my friend Howard Hill has been going nuts trying to find what he called an "roof rake'. No idea what such a thing is, but apparently he waited too long into the season before getting one and now can find 'em, although persistent a fellow as he is, I figure he's still on the hunt for one. Has something of a footrace going between storms and roof of his elderly house being seriously damaged by the weight of snow. Up in the Northeast, this winter is one for the record books.
So, if you think I'm nuts for thinking MRE's & baking, maybe you haven't been outside yet this morning.
Year of Ones
Option timer Robin Handler's been collecting one's:
Call me at 11:11:11 on 11/11/11 to discuss this once again.
Hyperchronism Marches On
Despite people wanting to pass of my focus on hyperchronism, described by chief time monk Clif, as nothing more than mistaken perceptions of people, I keep getting reports. Like this one:
Here's a good one from a 'serious weather dude':
We sit corrected. And, as often happens, dumbfounded.
Tuesday February 1, 2011
I arrived in my office a few minutes later than normal, since a major winter storm sweeping down our way from up north: there we a couple of stops along the way. Covering up a water faucet since it could drop below freezing and it made sense to put the insulation on while it was still 39º outside.
Of course, what didn't make sense was doing this in the midst of 2-3" per hour rainfall, but what's a little water, eh? Better a little rain than to be shutting down the water to do plumbing repairs when the big storm headed into the Southeast shows up over the next day, or so.
In Chicago, the Sun-Times headlines mayor Daley as proclaiming the Windy City will be ready for the forthcoming Blizzard of 2011. And it's no wonder, since the citizens of Chicago seem easily snowed; almost a historical norm for them and no prospects of that changing anytime soon, considering what's going on in the mayoral contest.
Meantime, back at the water faucet, a couple of covers installed, and by now quite wet, it was back to the house to pick up my editor, Zeus the Cat, who was doing his dead-level best to hang tooth and claw onto first the floor, and then Elaine's arms, so he wouldn't get carried over to the office. Not that it's a bad place to do (his own computer and chair and such) but he doesn't get to control what's on TV over here.
Being dumb, as most cats are, he doesn't understand that in either place, all that's being watched is Al Jazeera/English on Galaxy 19, transponder 26, channel 10. I made a mental note to remind you this morning that Free To Air television is something quite difficult to 'turn off', unlike some communications channels where a simple call to a network exec, and presto! You're out of the loop.
Which is where we pick up this morning's adventure of chasing news and markets...
The main event of today should be the million-person demonstration in Egypt today, made only slightly less dangerous since the military there promised it wouldn't fire on Egyptian citizens.
The Egyptian difficulties are returning a kind of 'mixed bag' for investors. Since the military has decided to be human-neutral, the odds down at the betting parlor named Wall Street, have changed on the future price of oil. Oil's dropped a bit. And the reason? It's looking more like the Suez Canal still remain open, the price of oil has fallen and this has touched off something of a rally in global markets.
So, as we push electrons up to our server, and while the giant crowds form up in Egypt, at least for the moment Asia, Europe, and now the US futures were looking pretty good.
All of which sets up the expectation about here that most of the day should be "contained" to use a military/first-responder word. The situation may, or may not, result in president Mubarak blowing town, but expectations are that the demonstrations will peter out and just wither up and blow away.
'Course, that's not what my expectation is: Just in the past hour or two, Al Jazeera has been reporting that the Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will not negotiate with the Mubarak government. And that means this is far from over and no definitive indicators yet as to which way events will break.
While watching the events of Tahir Square where the demonstrations in Egypt are centered this morning, Elaine had one of those curious insights of her's:
Indeed...remind me to keep an eye peeled for a similar face-down event in coming hours in global media...odds seem to favor a media focus on that kind of human against the machine kind of imagery.
The 25th spiral calendar harmonic off Tiananmen Square incident stand-off between "tank man" and Chinese tanks sent to enforce "order". Just something to make a note of on the calendar: The 25th spiral calendar cycle off the Tiananmen showdown comes on 7/28/2011 - so late July of this year could (if you believe in such timing systems) be a time to keep an eye open. For what? Glad you asked...
Ahead in GlobalRev: Russia's "Second Ending'?
Spied a very interesting report out of the Kavkaz Center with the headline "Russia is dying, confirm parliament experts" which goes to the idea that Russia's devolution into a conglomeration of loosely affiliated independent states.
As we like to engage in the practice of extensible thinking, we are starting to wonder if something of this grand scale could arrive this year as part of GlobalRev. The report of "Kyrgyz demonstrators protest mining project" just sort of nudges things along..
Of course, which country slides into global revolution is a matter of some speculation. For example, there's a Naked Empire piece wondering "Is Pakistan on the verge of collapse?" Worth asking, since they have nukes, at least one of which is promised to the Saudis...
The WaPo this morning headlines that "Jordan protests pressure king, but respect for monarchy remains" but we have to wonder how much the same story could have been written about Tunisia and Egypt a month or two back?
Demonstrators and police were slugging it out last week in Yemen, too. So the prospect of another 'flash mob' kind of uprising against the existing power paradigm is likely possible in at least 10-countries in the Middle East which causes a lot of concern in diploomatic circles. Could Sudan be another flash-over point?
Blizzards and Economic Data
As the "Blinding snow hit Plains, Midwest" this morning, we've got a couple of key economic indicators coming out as we blow through this week, including the Construction Spending report later on this morning and the auto & truck figures this afternoon. Tomorrow, a couple of more "look-ahead" orients numbers arrive with the Mortgage Bankers housing sales and the Challenger jobs numbers.
Won't show up for a week, or longer in data, but I find myself wonder "What will the impact of the Blizzard of 2011 be on some of those reports?"
Factory orders and the initial unemployment claims come Thursday along with factory orders, but Friday is the unemployment report, which comes bundled with average workweek and hourly earnings figures. That will be the one to watch closely. Readers are calling it this way:
BUT: Key thing to remember is that the December unemployment report is always a little questionable since there's all the seasonal hiring around Christmas. What Christmas???
Lawyers and the Healthcare Law
A judge down in Florida has struck down the national healthcare bill as unconstitutional. This is seen as possibly being the key case, when it goes up on appeal, which it almost certainly will...
Interesting press release from the Commodity Future Trading Commission this morning:
We like to remind readers that these are only allegations until proven, but worth noting.
(more after this ad)
Coping: You Ain't Gonna Like This, But...
Got an email from a reader last night, who may - and I emphasize this is only a long-shot maybe for now - have come up with a kind of 'grand-unified-theory' of all the strange crap going on globally as far as the weather is concerned.
That is kind of an interesting theory. Still, until I can levitate, bend spoons like Uri Geller, or I begin drooling and take on a vacant look to my eyes (like there's a light on but nobody home), I won't worry to much.
Oh wait, I look like that every morning... lemme hold out for levitating, then.
Pictures of Strangeness Dept.
Got copied on an email to Clif & Igor up at www.halfpasthuman.com which came from a reader in Australia who'd just read the "toroid" references in his copy of the HPH report. This is seriously strange:
Yeah....that is pretty damn weird. Ghost writers in the sky? If you ever see something like this, do us a huge favor, would you? Run inside and get on the computer and see if there's a concurrent radar anomaly showing? Be interesting as hell to see if there's an correlation there...
Next strangelet comes as email from daughter Denise - the one who sees shadow people, records EVP voices in cemeteries, and get's plenty of orb in her pictures. Oh, not to mention scoring a good bit higher than chance on psi tests when she's doing binaual beats into her head, but that's not this morning's point.
Nope, this is about an email with this in it:
(Now you see why I recommended she buy a Wacom Intuos4 Medium Pen Tablet - hard to write with a mouse, lol. She'd want me to loan here the $340, so maybe I should just shut up... Still, her mousing writings are...er....sorry, I digress...)
Well, I have to admit some intrigue with this one. So I fired up Corel Photo-Paint and blew it way up...
What was so interesting about this was that when she took the picture, she swears there was nothing there - specially this orangish color.
Of course, first thing I thought was "With your birthday coming up late this month, dad, maybe Denise is just 'funning you' with some Photoshopping..."
But no, when I looked close there were things in the foreground and I know from life's experience that my kids would not be patient enough to pull of - like install foreground items like this has. The kids, like me, like short jokes, short work, and short cuts in general.
So I wrote her back suggesting alternatives: One is that it was nothing more than one of her digital anomalies that she's always snapping (orbs and so forth) OR, it's a picture - an afterimage perhaps - of a wood nymph of leprechaun.
I sent her a note saying that if she manages to catch one of these, not to settle for a pot of gold; instead hold out for a three year options forecast with quadruple picks for each trading day so she can get some serious money ahead in the deal.
If you notice this site entirely disappear someday with rumors that Elaine and I were last seen in a yellow Lambo convertible headed for our new corporate jet at the airport, this'll be what happened.
Meantime, she calls it her "wild natural elemental dryad". Anyone with enough psychedelics in their past recognize it?
From the outbox:
Sensible, that's us.
I'd like to thank the reader who signed me up for an adult chat forum. Thanks, but no thanks...
Emails We Do Like...
On the other hand, this was good:
Was it our Egypt coverage? Wonderings on government statistical methods? I had to know...
So come to find out:
Here's why being around the WuJo is so much fun: I may sometimes be mistaken for someone who's anti-government...which I am not. It's often safer to whack around in the weeds at the edges of reality to scare some of Life out into the open so we can all get a good look at it.
If we're going to get this plane of existence to work a little better, I figure some attention to higher planes is in order (as above, so below). In keeping with this, those planes which run orthogonally to all three/four sensed dimensions are really worth thinking about.
Speaking of which, a medical-academic flying sort I know of has a very interesting list of the "16 steps in the evolution of consciousnesses."
I won't tell you specialty, but it's intimately close to the topic and you might be able to guess...the further hint being that he pushes people between 'em.
I take his observations incredibly seriously. And since they're compact and I like short cuts...what we we talking about again? Bring your own elementals...
Send your comments to firstname.lastname@example.org
Monday, January 31, 2011
As Falls Egypt....
With demonstrators vowing to stay in the streets until their is a change of power, and with a coalition government between a returning political figure and the Muslim Brotherhood in the works, we will see this week how a major GlobalRev flash point fares.
First, we can notice that the markets are weak this morning and it's possible, depending on news flow, that they could move much lower through the day.
As this week's adventure begins, we find that Al Jazeera is reporting that a million member demonstration is being called for tomorrow in an effort to topple the Mubarak government.
Well, at least sort of. Follow closely here: A couple of things are going on with Al Jazeera's coverage. No, I'm not talking about how they got kicked out of Egypt yesterday for what I thought (from watching a fair bit of it) pretty balanced reporting of the goings on. Still, this morning comes word that 5- Al Jazeera journalists have been arrested.
But what's even more interesting is that Al Jazeera reporting seems to be (by reader reports) being blocked in some parts of the US. And no, this is not because Egypt is blocking their broadcasts: Al Jazeera is headquartered in Doha, Qatar, so if you can't get access to their website www.aljazeera.net it's possible that you 'uncle' is protecting you.
So that gets us around to what to do should the internet ever go down in the USA. Our friends up at www.halfpasthuman.com sent us a little research you might want to be aware of:
There are others, too, and the OpenMesh site is where to find 'em...but we put a few up here from their site since dispersed information is more robust.
OK, so besides the asymmetric information warfare aspects of this and the million person showdown tomorrow, what else is going on? Markets...nervous markets.
A while back - six months was it? - we were chatting about how gold would do in the coming crisis period. I told you then about my friend Howard Hill's explanation of why gold will come down in any market decline - because when people in one sector (say stocks or commodities) get a margin call, they will have to sell anything to keep their positions and if that includes gold or silver, well, then so be it.
Sure enough, here comes the fulfilling headline off Reuters that "Gold Falters as safe-haven rally fizzles". More from Howard in a sec...
Meantime, back at the GlobalRev, we're reading in the UK Mail this morning that the death toll from Egypt 's revolution is 102 dead, thousands of prisoners let out of prisons, 30-thousand Brits stuck and American's being told to get the hell out.
Yeah, I know, you had plans to fire up the Gulfstream and head for a romantic candlelight din-din at the pyramids, right? Might want to catch this from the State Dept. before you spin up those turbines...
Speaking of dinners, you see the write up on the Alfalfa Club din-din this weekend in today's WaPo? Bush II's first dinner in DC since elections.
Markets and Data
Right out of the chute this morning we have the personal income and expense figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis which - I've heard, really is more than two guys and a laptop with Excel...
No word on how much of the personal income numbers were based on money saved living under an overpass which is still rent-free in some places. BUT here locally the buzz in East Texas is 25 teachers will be let go this month and a local steel forming business has gone from 8 lines to 4 and those may be cut to dour days a week.
Still, it's the local conditions I become aware of and I hold it up next to the rosy report on the personal savings rate and try to figure how the government arrived at this one:
I'm still trying to figure out how, when housing equity is such a huge fraction of the average American's net worth, how the government hasn't figured out that whacking housing equity reduces the effective savings rate to a massively negative number.
I mean, here's the deal, right? My understanding (which is never perfect, mind you) is that it works this way: Say you buy a house for $200,000 and you agree to make payments on it at $1,600 a month, right? Sure there's interest and taxes, but the argument could be made that buying house equity is a form of savings, right? So, whatever the principal is that's applied to the $200 house price must be savings, right? Yeah, the house value on the street at this moment may be less, but when you get it paid off in xx years it should be worth more than the $200,000. (Missing is the discussion of the $80/loaf bread by then, but that's a different rant...)
But is that the right way to figure? Not NO, but HELL NO.
In the People's Economist's view of things, the money paid on principal should be compared to the current market value of the house.
That's because if you paid $200,000 for the house, and it's now worth $100,000 (and these are common numbers, BTW) those payments on principal would be money down a rat hole because you'd be upside down owing $100,000 more than the house could fetch today if you sold today.
Oh sure: Reporting savings related to housing equity my way would tend to overstate the savings rate when times were good and inflation was percolating along. But, it would screw the savings rate to some huge deficit number monthly if reported more candidly.
But that doesn't change reality and in fact, you'll find that much of the consumer spending in the overshoot/housing bubble period was funded by people extracting equity from homes and now millions of people are upside down and are making payments which are NOT in any way, shape, or form savings.
"Depends who's telling the story, then doesn't it?"
Yup. People in Washington or what you could get on the market real. The correlation between 'em, near as I can tell is largely coincidental.
Oh, and if you back out the 20% of Americans who are unemployed, a 5.3% savings rate implies those with jobs are saving 6.625%. Again, I mean look like a fool but....no one I know is doing that...
Raw Corporate Power in America
So, who are the Koch brothers, I mean besides rich, rich, and then some?
Well, they are billionaires and they have funded some of the Tea Party movement, but as those watching closely know, the Tea Party is quickly being turned into a group that largely does what the Washington lobbyists want done and that's where we come up to current events.
In Rancho Mirage, California this weekend, about 2-dozen protesters were arrested for trying to protest the Billionaires Caucus which, among others, featured a command appearance by House republicorp leader Eric Cantor of Virginia.
And their point was what?
The issue on the table here is not that the Koch brothers are rich. Sure, why not, this is America after all.
BUT where things get contentious is when ANYONE with very deep (verging on unlimited cash) decides to underwrite efforts to pass legislation, or promote legal decisions which actually put corporations - like the owns they own - above humans in the laws of America.
That's what the recent Citizens United Supreme Court decision did. Said corporations can spend as much as they care, even if that raises the price of legislation above the ability of grassroots types to participate.
No checkbook? So sorry... No democracy for you.
Which has gotten working-people oriented groups like MoveOn.org circulating a petition which is really damn simple:
And it's here, in rulings like Citizen's United that the Great Bait & Switch happens. The backing of the Tea Party sounded like a good thing, but to Free Traders (really Free Raiders) that means that corporations, not just humans get to have whatever they want. So, if a corporation has money and can override the 'will of the people' what happens?
Oh, little things like billions of dollars in TARP funds for certain banks, but not others. A stimulus bill that didn't do diddly squat, and, oh, capital gains rates about half of what working families pay, if the money isn't shoveled through offshore accounts.
But, the RRR wing of the MSM (Rabidly Right Radio) won't put it in those simple terms, since they get paid extremely well to hornswaggle the public into believing more corporate influence is 'good for yah'. Yeah, sure, you bet'cha. Wanna talk jobjacking?
Which leaves most of us in a terrible fix: I really like the Tea Parties ideals, but really don't like the implement plans being played out by the corpgov'sts level, which instead of putting humans first is putting unlimited spending first under the guise of 'freedom'.
Such is life this Monday in the Checkbook Republic for those with the deep pockets. You? Oh, you get stuck with the tab.
Higher Food Seen
Welfare for the rich (bailouts) lead to printing money...and that leads to....gee, lemme see....inflation maybe?
If the idea that corporate interests are now able to bid up the price of law to levels where normal folks can't afford it, maybe it's a good thing that kind of news makes you lose your appetite.
Especially since the MSNBC piece "An eras of cheap food may be drawing to a close..."
Let's see here, flooding in South Africa, Panama, Brazil, Australia, forecasts of a worse than normal flood season in the US, inclement weather seems to be rampant. Seems to me that the use of the word "may" (lead to) in their headline reflects undo optimism.
There Go Alternative Screeners
Yup - TSA says it won't go beyond the 16 airports which have elected to do their own screening instead of using TSA.
Not sure what will happen next, but if I were at the two-dollar bet window in Vegas, my money would be on ferocious checks of the private screening system with an eye toward banning them and consolidating power in TSA. If I just had two-bucks to spare, that is.
Blizzard watch in Chicago (No, not a Rahm snow job - this time), a genuine for real deal from the National Weather service:
"Hey what about Howard Hill?"
Oh, yeah, his house in CT is in jeopardy from heavy snow fall, ice, and ice dams on the roof and you have to read his notes on the FCIC report.
Snow due here tomorrow afternoon. Cats are buttering us up to come inside...they know...
Monday at the WuJo
Coping: Time & Troubles
We keep getting time slip reports...
Aha! There's another one of those 20-30 minute range gaps that we've been talking about.
All of which has gotten me to thinking about the possibility that under the Many World's Interpretation of quantum mechanics, the world which we experience may actually be a series of multiple realities where everything that is possible actually happens.
The MWI is way cool, since it provides a specific mechanism for things like "prayers to be answered" by simply jumping onto an alternate reality next time one comes along that's headed toward the future you want, rather than the one you don't.
Sounds cool,. alright...until you start getting steely-eyed engineers writing in say "No way!"
Well, hold up there. Yes, I do understand AC enough to get Smith-Chart questions right and complex impedance issues, albeit at RF, but that's AC, too.
What I'm suggesting is that due to the "reality locking" that occurs as one reality 'fades out', the other is fading in. If the fade-in and lock was not extraordinarily smooth we would all be noticing 'jumps' in TV programs and the back porch frequency (of television/video blanking interval) would reveal a timing mess.
However, long, long ago, ancient Sanskrit advises us that reality that we experience is like 'riding a wave front' which is an intersection of at least three planes of energy, and that these infinitesimally small units of time/space are called the kalapa and they come and go at several trillions of times per second.
Yep, that's up there above terahertz waves where physics gets a little wonky, but this kind of light speed creation/dissolution, recreation/new synching of reality probably is a big hint as to why various spiritual types down through history has always gone around talking about "The Light!"
So here's the model I would offer back (and pardon the crude drawing, it's early and the bean juice is still soaking in...
As you can see in this example, there doesn't need to be any 'conflict' between realities, and in fact, inconsistencies between timelines of one reality, would necessarily synch up in order to present huge amounts of energy from being expended; and thus we may find that 'smooth synching' is the norm...as I am sure you've noticed. Those individual cycles are not time stamped, either...but wouldn't that be an interesting notion: Micro-encode them with noise, huh? Decode the micro encoding and find what?
Thanks to the "observer effect" -- noted in Schrödinger's experiment (which may explain why my cat Zeus runs like hell when I call him, he's 3 for 3 so far in my Schrödinger box ;0-) -- provides that if a critical mass of humans collectively as a function of mass consciousness to go off on a different future, the existing track into the future gets revised and a new one replaces it. One simply dissolves away while the other - headed toward a slightly different future - resolved into 'real' and we jointly go down that new path together.
Sometimes the transition to a 'new future' is slow - as we saw in the case of Tunisia and we're seeing in the headlines today about Egypt. But, the speed of transition can be as short as a single kalapa's existence which could be as short several trillionths of a second. And no, there would be nothing discernable in the powerhouse at the local nuke plant. The 60 hz AC is still being produced, and since a new 'zero axis' came along with it, the 'new cycle' on the new track would be in phase because you measure what? Amplitude and phase, of course!
What is specifically NOT measured is orthogonally related higher dimensions of Hilbert Space.
A dandy video of how this works (up to 10 dimensions, which may be a limit on Hilbert spaces, or so goes debate) you can envision how this may operate.
So while I would readily agree that power plants around the world are NOT blowing up due to time shifts, as the explanation above (and the video which is excellent, so do take time to watch it!) show, there is a way of looking at physics which provides for the occasional oddity in shared reality while at the same (time) flowing in mostly expected ways.
I reported to you last week how the state of Utah was working a bill through their legislative process to name the Browning 1911 as their state gun. I also suggested Texas choose the nuclear warhead B83 as its state weapon, since we make those and they are much more efficient at killing people and breaking things.
In response to this, a reader's been thinking about this and has it figured this way:
As some point, the well will run dry and people will stop sending in such suggestions. When they do, I can move on to the next set of bad puns, such as naming Missouri the Ammunition State.
If you're wondering "WTF?" Simple: A soldier has hears this on the range or in combat all the time:
Groans, rimshots, and the soft rustle of readers reaching for aspirin while asking "Why do this to myself?"
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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