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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 daily Saturday
October 2, 2010 08:03 AM CDT
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This Being Saturday and all.... ...You could be reading "Nightmare on Foreclosure Street, Part Deux" over on www.peoplenomics.com. Oh, sure, it's $40 a year, and oh, yeah, times are hard. But there's a price that goes with ignorance, too. Weigh that carefully, LOL. We'll be up in the garden working...got a famine to get ready for...
Web Bot Hit? Stuxnet: The "Israeli Mistake"? Say, not to worry you excessively, but remember the other day I was mentioning how a number of readers were wondering if the Stuxnet virus might not be the "Israeli Mistake" that has popped out of the predictive linguistics work over at www.halfpasthuman.com and that the 'mistake' will bring about all kinds of adverse consequences out something like nine generations if I recall correctly? Ought to know in early November.
A quick run through the headlines reveals stories starting to appear like this one in last night's UK Telegraph online: "Israeli cyber unit responsible for Iran computer worm - claim."
Apparently, according to a John Markoff and David Sanger story this week in the NY Times, there's a possible Biblical clue contained in the Stuxnet worm code which may be a fleeting reference to the Old Testament Book of Esther.
What's going on now is that the Stuxnet worm is now apparently working its way into China and starting to wreak havoc there, in addition to its concentration initially on Iran.
That report that the Iranian Bushehr plant won't launch (figuratively!) until 2011 is only coincidental, we're so sure.
So far, this is not widely viewed as "the Israeli Mistake" but if one reads the predictive linguistics in a certain way, there's a small - but larger than zero - chance that the Stuxnet virus could be the 'ev ent' that 'starts in the United States' and then 'goes global' from here in the much watched November 8-12 timeframe.
This weekend, we'll get into some of the cascading collapse possibilities in our Peoplenomics report, but what can be said with some certainty is that while the Stuxnet worm was somewhat limited in scope - it didn't attack everything - a larger scale event - and perhaps mounted as retaliation - could be vastly more damaging.
Toward this end, we notice that the Department of Homeland Security is holding "Cyber Storm III [which] Simulates Large-scale Attack" says PCWorld.
So what has been the purpose? From a DHS press release:
How to prep for such an event? I'm working up the personal checklist now and should have that in the Sunday Peoplenomics report.
One thing's becoming clear: The 'WMD" in the Middle East which may fulfill the "mistake" language sets hasn't been launched - yet. When it happens there may not be any warning; Your ATM may just stop working. --- Bot Hit 2: Seems the Swiss Finance Minister may be our 'laughing man" meme. 1.2 million views on YouTube so far. Stephen Colbert's 'opening statement is lagging at 818,005 views when I looked.
New Highs in Metals A couple of things to note on this front: I hear that there's a lot of silver being called for delivery in the commodity markets. That (and worries about digidollars in light of virus threats) may be behind gold getting up tyo $1,318.40 and silver to $22.06 in highs over at Kitco today.
One other possibility? Effective today, the Treasury Department's US Mint is raising the premium charged to authorized purchasers of American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins from $1.50 to $2.00. This seems like a biggie - and sure, 33% increase in the premium looks big - but how much should that add to the price at retail? Well, either 50-cents an ounce is passed straight through - or more, depending on how much the dealers mark things up.
(And whether they mark up exiting inventory, too... ;-))
Hillary and the War Crimes Guy I don't suppose you watch much foreign media, but for an investment of about $300 (and no recurring costs!) anyone can piece together what's called an FTA TV rig - meaning free to air television - and get a whole different perspective on what's going on in the world. Of particular interest is Megahertz Networks which has an evening news block with national English-language news reports out of places like Israel, Iran, Japan, France, and Germany all in one (somewhat long) sitting.
All of which is a long lead-in to mentioning that the USA is being seriously pointed to as 'buncha fools who don't remember their history' if you read between the lines and watch coverage of the welcome that Hillary Clinton gave Henry Kissinger who orchestrated the dropping of 4-million tons of bombs on Southeast Asia (about twice as much ordinance as all of WWII!) and cost me some dear friends from back in the day.
Denial seems to play well with Dr K - as evidenced by stories under headlines like "Kissinger: Vietnam failures 'we did to ourselves'." To assert that "America wanted compromise" ignores a truer reading of history that we didn't want the damn war in the first place as it was revealed as largely "made up" as a gov't lie called the Second Gulf of Tonkin Incident. Wikipedia says this about it:
What an open-minded read of history suggests (and the reason why some non-US media are pointing out we're a nation of memory-deficit idiots [ in so many words] is that we miss the point that Kissinger was trying to do an early run at New World Order and the later day agents of the agenda, Hillary Clinton who once protested the Vietnam War is pretty transparent.
Then there's the Hillary hypocrisy as we read how "Despite Clinton Pledge, State Department to Pay Out Billions More to Mercenaries." And you wonder why the world laughs at us for spin-fried short memories? you are kidding, right? --- Is history presently rhyming with our wars based largely on purported WMD's in Iraq and is this the analog to Tonkin Gulf 2? Is Hillary the latest reincarnation of Henry K? I won't take a stand either way, but the rest of the world keeps on laughing at us; it's just most Americas are insulated in the MSM bubble. If it wasn't on the American networks it might as well not have happened. Bull shit, of course.
The PTB are still running the show, same as then. Player change roles (Hillary even changes sides on things like Vietnam, apparently) and all the while, the deaths of our young continue. I'm biting my tongue from saying more: it's bleeding. --- "A Conspiracist - that's what you are!" I can hear in now. But go read the "33 Conspiracy Theories that Turned Out To Be True..." There are others, I'm sure. It's just that those on top get to write history for those on the bottom. Gulf on Tonkin is #15 on this list.
Long as you're there, read #16 about the PTB attempted coup against the US government in 1933 and then watch the BBC videos...gotta love them PTB's. Give you something to do if things are slow at work today...
The Myth of Personal Savings I suppose at some point we should move on to the statistical happy-talk part of this morning's report. Ah...here we go...just out the Personal Income and Expenditure report. Grab your ViceGrips (you may need to pinch yourself) because you and I probably aren't living in this Neverland...
So, here's the miracle part (if you're quick on the draw with a calculator): Personal income up one half of one percent. Personal savings up 1.8%. Which means that expenditure were down 1.5% for other stuff, right? But wait, personal disposable income was only half a percent, too.
Gee, maybe it's those pesky house payment disappearing for some? No clue, sorry.
Later on today (like it matters with Nov. 8 fast approaching) we'll get the final Consumer Sentiment jiggle, the construction spending wiggle, and the auto sales dance. If that jiggle, wiggle, and dance stuff sounds like the topless joint down the street, it's not. Statistical excess is topless, too.
Not like I'm the only one to notice this. either: Tyler Durden over at Zerohedge as been keeping track in an article titled "Charting Statistical Fraud At The BLS: 22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless Claims."
So why can data cluster like this when I walk into a casino? Never does, damn it.
Blame for the Flash Crash I take if you can remember back to the May 'flash crash'? Now comes a report that seems to name one company for selling a bunch of e-mini futures as being a contributor. But lookie here: Have you noticed that the people who whine about flash crashes and market declines are usually the ones who got in at the top of the bubble and don't want to suck up and own their losses? Wall Street is a craps game and the myth of constant growth there is one of the better fictions of history. Most people lose either their ass or their retirement...since the truth is, can't have all the Boomers taking dough out of the markets when young people don't have crappola to invest with.
But apparently that's not self-evident enough or the math is just too mind-bogglingly simple.
Race in the Political Races Dept. Gee, I was sort of hoping the Obama administration wouldn't go using hot emotionalism to try and hang onto some seats in the House and Senate, but no, the headlines this morning over at Muck Rack seem to say otherwise.
Then there's hip hopper B.o.B being asked to appear at a fundraiser/rally known for soft, gentle, heart warming lyrics such as these (link). Ah, the high road, eh?
Mexico's Slow-Motion Revolution Another shooting - this time on a lake down in Zapata County Texas which has one shore in the US, the other in Mexico. Guy on a jet ski was shot by pirates. -- I'm also hearing that some airport services in Mexico are not accepting US dollars at the terminal.
Coup Lessons Here's on from the 'almost' coup in Ecuador over the past couple of days: Keep the Army on your side. In Ecuador this week, the president of the country was rescued from rebellious police. No, that wasn't near De Ville (double rim shot) Didn't get it? Do I really need to explain coup d'état versus Coupe De Ville?
Black Holes on the Net Say, this is a good article on why the net works most of the time, but sometimes things (like crucial emails) just seem to disappear into a black hole...
Not Really Dead Seems that about a third of the species that go reported as extinct show up again says a Brit paper this morning.
(continues below ad)
Coping: Playing in Street With Universe I have this really weird notion in my head that when a person is on the 'right path' in Life, that there are little 'signs and portents' along the way which will tell you (to use an airplane-flying analogy here) when you've crossed the runway center-line and are lined up on The Path just so.
A small, but personally significant example, came in writing of yesterday's report. About 15-minutes before posting time I had in mind some other headline from the one which I ended up going with ("Translating Thursday") which turned into a quick rewrite and simplification of a couple of news items that drove Wall Street to climb the walls of worry - at least for a very short time - in Thursday's trading action.
A few minutes after posting the morning report, I get the following email:
Which was just strange enough to send me scampering to Wikipedia where the back story on his being the patron saint of 'translators' jumps out at me:
All of which is all the more personally meaningful because I've spent a little time getting to know (and perhaps offering an idea or two, here and there) to the efforts of The Chronicle Project ( www.thechronicleproject.org ) which is in the process of re-translating the Bible using something called Self-Defining Hebrew (SDH) which you can read about on their web site if you're interested.
The whole premise of their work boils down to a couple of real stimple concepts: The first is that Hebrew had built into it (at the get-go) a system of 'error-correction' which helps to keep the texts pure down through generations. Not that serious efforts weren't made in that regard anyway, since there was usual one translator translating, one translator doing the writing of the translation and a third making sure the first two didn't screw up.
But, where things seem to have gone off the rails by a country mile, or two, is in losing the essence of what was once a 'verb language' and developing instead of single verb/action concepts installing (in latter day translations) up to dozens of different meanings for different character sets which seem (at least under SDH) to resolve down to single meanings. Books like "Strong's Concordance" as the work progressing seems to show, may be part of a systematic reinterpretation of what was originally there and installing 'definitions of convenience'.
That's because (when SDH is applied) the 10 Commandments turn out to be 11 instead. And, the prohibition in modern interpretations of things like "Thou shalt not kill" (sometimes "Thou shalt not slay") turn out to say something more like - and I'll do a poor job of paraphrasing here - "You shouldn't turn your back on a member of community who needs your help/support/sustenance".
Oh, there's also no mention of they neighbor in there, either. The 'retooling of what's there in ancient Aramaic and Hebrew, seems to been deliberate and inspired by an agenda of some kind that wasn't in the original texts.
For me, this is a pretty doggone interesting project to be aware of and when things involving translation and language comes up, and a big coincidence plops down in the middle of what goes on in my life around the edges, it could be a meaningful coincidence.
Or, if could just be George tilting at windmills again. Experience suggests that most people don't want to question centuries-old translations even if some of them are pretty clearly made-up to suit a socioeconomic agenda from an earlier time. Or, as the case may be, to continue a socioeconomic business model, much of which may be based on previous mistranslations.
I'm always amazed at the number of people who haven't read the history of such events as the First Council of Nicaea, 325, or the Second Council which met in 787. Even fewer are the number of people I've met who have put serious study into what was "handed down" from Aramaic and Hebrew source documents, and how much was 'enacted' at what a really inquisitive mind might take as an ancient version of Congress, except deciding matters of Faith instead of matters of Law.
Not that there'd be anything but purest of intents, in either case, of course... But then there's the First Council of Constantinople in 360...
We'll award bonus points when you find the [purported] meetings at which reincarnation (and other key spiritual possibilities) was (voted/) written out of existence... But with that, I'll just shut the hell up since no one seems to agree on any of this subject area. --- Think of it as histories slowest moving investigative reporting story. Besides, Thursday's headline was only a 'coincidence', right? Speaking of stories and media....
About the 'Liberal' Media Good and thoughtful email on this topic:
Have to agree at some levels: I was in the media trenches when the PR firms were still young and getting their feet under them.
Short story: I almost got fired as a young newsman (age 21, top notch rock & roll station, major market) for running an airline story - some horrific crash or other back in 1970 - and then saying "More news after this..." and going to.... an airline commercial!
What happened since those days (when newsrooms had something approaching total irreverence for authority since many of us noticed what 'authority figures' like Dr K (comments above ad) were doing to the country. But what happened was the opposite of what was intended: Airlines started issuing 'crash policies' which barred commercials from being on air within 10-minutes of an airline disaster story.
Over time, the relationships got cozier and cozier...one thing led to another... and well, I'm probably to blame for some tiny bit of it... --- Another media history note (like you care?) : I think that was before I worked with Don Wade - think that was 73 or 74 - (Don's now in Chicago doing well last I checked) but that was one of the umpteen stations he'd been let go from. First rate guy - glad he found his spot in Chicago talk radio. He probably wouldn't remember George Garrett which was my 'air name' back when...
Site Watching Software Say, here's an update on the goings on in our software coding offices when Chris the wizard is making up a program which will let you see when sites like UrbanSurvival and HalfPastHuman and even CNN (if you want) are updated - very useful if you're not into newsreaders and RSS and all that:
Meantime, I keep having battles around here on RSS and so forth...an HTPASSWD issue for a client....just no end of delightful ways to keep me from getting everything. The good news: If everything was done, then it'd be OK to die, but have way too much on the plate for the next, oh, 30-years near as I can figure.
Maybe more...Elaine announced last night that she wants us to take a vacation to the Canary Islands. I offered to buy here a couple of birds and a cage, said it would be a lot cheaper. Icy stares followed for reasons I can't quite fathom...
One Week Late On our way our West this month (a couple of weeks from now) we're going to be too late to catch the "Color in the Desert" Balloon festival in Albuquerque. Good write-up on it over at the Aircraft Owners and P{ilots Association website.
There is some good news to missing it: We got a good hotel - cheap. But if you're out that way starting this weekend, should be plenty of good photo ops.
Send your comments to george@ure.net
Reader Action Department: Now on our premium content site: Peoplenomics.com Gaming The US's Third World Transition Don't look now - but the evidence is mounting up: The US in in the midst of something more impacting that the right/left Tea Party-Democan skirmishes, more lasting that the proposals to overhaul various taxing regimens. America's going 'Third World' under our very noses. Some data points this week to bring that into focus which may help develop personal strategies for the transition. More for Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here. Places to Go, things to do... Looking to read some interesting items? Try out the National Dream Center site - which I cooked up to see if there's another way to peek into the future that would reinforce some of the predictive linguistics expectations. Free - here.
Up this week for the first time: JB Slear's site www.mygroponics.com where you can buy his popular ebook on backyard (scrounged together) vertical hydroponics which is way cool - life sustaining pastimes are useful, know what I mean?
Cookie Video The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is always here
Thursday September 30, 2010 Translating Thursday No, we are not vaping up... we're talking about picking the right number from a whole slew of wannbe's that are crossing the wire at this hour. Take for example, please, the new GDP update (which might make sense only after toking up) My (Translations) to help you:
Yum, that was sure fun, huh? Well how about this morsel over here?
More minutia, but with only one more day till the end of the quarter ends the happy talk hype may be able to spin the view away from the bond disasters in Europe long enough to let some of the longs get out this morning. Morte cornflakes?
Euro Dough The REAL IMPORTANT number is the report that inflation in Europe is picking up and the specter of global competitive currency devaluations (paper wars in Oct-Nov) just kicked up a notch. Eurozone inflation of 1.8% Year on Year is up to 1.8% from 1.6% last month.
So while the chances of global currency wars are rising, we are already seeing the moves afoot for a tariff war globally. China is not happy with the US House passing a bill Wednesday which would label undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy.
There is your Biggy.
Trough Party Failure Congress couldn't even pass a budget. Which makes the period after the election all the more dangerous.
Shaky Stuff Noticed the large number of earthquakes over the past couple of days? I don't get all worked up over quakes, except that when they come along as 7.2 and above it does tend to get my attention like the Wednesday quake down around Papua, Indonesia. Interesting in that there was a 6.2 preshock and a bunch of aftershocks.
But let's not fall victim to limited vision. We can draw a three other circles of interesting. The smallish quakes down around Baja's northern end (south of El Centro, CA which is below sea level...) have have continued with a 3.1 and a 2.8. Then there were a couple in Nevada (a 4.3 and a 3.2 which is not common) along the California border, west-northwest of Las Vegas about 140-miles...
Trouble in the 'Hood Four suicides have been reported at Fort Hood in the past week on top of 14 others earlier in the year.
Cincy You Asked A reader in Ohio wants to know:
You mean besides the economic world teetering and about to fall over on us little people? Or the funds being holding perhaps somewhat illiquid investments so they are playing for time? You mean that kind of thing? Nope...
Why We Call it the MSM ...and a new Gallup survey says the US public's distrust of the U.S. Media is up to a record high. Or, to put it another way, trust in the U.S. Media is going on to new lows.
if you scroll down a ways on the Gallup Poll's site, you can see a second chart showing that 48 percent of the public thinks the MSM too liberation and only 15% think the media is too conservative.
All of which gets us back to the question that has plagued journalists forever: Are they supposed to only accurately portray where the country is or should they also hold up some ideas about where we could be if we go off in this direction or that? In other words, to what degree should journalists lead thought or should they simply report current thinking? ---- Over my years as a serious big-city news type, I always held that a good reporter should stick to the reporting as it is - but spend a good bit of energy kicking around other ways of stating things as they are.
Which is why around here, for example, I call the Federal Reserve's Consumer Credit Report by what it really is: "The Consumer Debt Report" and why I don't get sucked into the BS group-think that inflation is strictly prices going up since that's a Keynesian load of hog poop. It's simply a way of hiding the fact in plain sight that it's at least EQUALLY TRUE that inflation is the purchasing power of money going down.
It's the simple stuff like this that gets lost in most media...It's not that the reporters are trying to express a bias, however most don't spend enough time using our Substitution Method to redefine thinking a bit. The Substitution Method says (in so many words) that a good reporter always has the option of reframing the discussion by inverting the topic.
During the Vietnam war reporting, for example, as a journalist rather than reporting on 'the war' the clip side could have been expressed as the 'lack of peace'. In growth of government, the flip side is few people paying, not more government workers, and so forth. Sometimes, the flip side leaks out - as in the case of foreclosures are up which is closely related to home sales are down...that kind of thing.
Of course, we understand the public mistrust pretty well: Most media are spoon-fed the framing and once the framing is set (e.g. credit is good), any discussion on the topic is a fait accompli. If instead, the framing is "debt is bad" then the line of intellectual inquiry is more open...
The Gestapo of Oz Since the Western Economic Paradigm is being held together largly by chewing gum and bailing wire here lately, we are somehow not surprised to learn down in Oz (where many police state tactics like internet controls are test-bedded) the police are now using a new "crime fighting" tool: They are demanding you be able to show receipts for anything flashy that strike their fancy.
Picture saving up for a 'flashy car' and having the cop ask you "Got a receipt for that?" Absurd, because if your name is on the title that ought to do it, but what about untitled property? Got a big "Lexus-sized" rock on the old lady's finger? How about the old man flashing one of those fancy 'gold nuggets pounded together' rings? Or, a Rollie on the wrist maybe?
Under this program...as I understand it from a quick read here... the Ozcops would be able to demand you produce a receipt for it or face the possibility of sacrificing it to the government which would then turn around and sell it off giving (a portion) of the proceeds to victims of crimes.
Just one more baby step as the NWO transitions law enforcement from guardians of civil order to robbin' hoods. Sherwood be nice t'wer it otherwise...
TGIAF ...all of which reminds us of this Thursday-only word from the Urban Dictionary. Thank God It's Almost Friday...
txt it 2 sum1 2da
Coping: Limits to Inheritance, Founding of TUFFER To save some time, TUFFER is the new apolitical action group I've decided to form in order to counter a lot of limited thinking in the world. TUFFIR stands for The Unpopular Front For Extreme Reform. Can't be any worse than the names the 'trough parties' use, can it?
Why? Well, I was disappointed not to receive a reply from the PhD. who took me to task on the idea of limiting inheritances (she may have real work and a real life I reckon) but it did result in a wonderful clarifying set of emails between me and another reader who was sort of in the same camp:
His remarks got me to thinking that I hadn't explained myself very well, a phenomena that's no stranger to me. So I penned what I hope passed as a thoughtful reply...
Graciously, our other reader replied:
Aha! By Jove I think he's got it! Yes, there are other ways to bust up the American Aristocracy, but those would be TUFFER...
(Hmmm...wonder if I could set up house ware novelties to fund this hare-brained idea. How about TUFFER-ware? We'd hold tea parties and sell TUFFERware goods....).
Next peaceful revolutionary, please?
Praguematist's Issues Our occasional critic in the Czech Republic (several thousand miles differentiated from here in the sane Republic outback of the Checkbook Republic) has sent another communiqué for us to digest...
I remain much more optimistic about our future, although I understand the concerns. History reminds us that America has made it through previous divisive and tough times (like a few wars including the none too Civil War come to mind) so no, I am not pessimistic in the least.
My reason, curiously has to do with media. If there's a Great Upside to a major socioeconomic disruption it is that people will stop looking toward consumption promoting media for their inspiration. A simple B-school fact is that the purpose of virtually all advertising is to pull future purchasing decisions into the present. E.G. excess consumption may be the root of all evil.
I genuinely believe that many of the people in jails and prisons got there not so much because they are bad at their core, but because they were programmed into those roles by their environments.
You can put poor people on the street and if you flaunt huge disparities of social standing in their face forever, isn't it reasonable to expect some to get pissed to the point of taking? Of course! Ka-Ching! Another jail customer, another body to toss in the American prison system which is the most overpopulated on in the world by most accounts (on a per capita basis).
Does this mean Americans are innately bad? Worse than anyone else?
Hell no! People are people...and what matters - the hidden variable which you have under-addressed - is that America is a media-intensive culture.
Put enough bling and T&A on the (literally) boob tube and what are you going to get? Money and T&A crazed people around the edges who might very well - in a less media-saturated enviornment - have made more valuable contributions to society than making license plates, know what I'm saying?
B.F, Skinner's operant conditioning (along with Thorndike's cats) underscore the notion that America - more than any other place in the world - is full of homes which are 'negative conditioning chambers' due in no small part to television.
As a nation, we're simply reaping what we've sown not only in terms of lack of metal acuity, voter apathy, but also in crime and especially crimes of the financial sort where our lack of mental clarity results in derivatives being seen as a savior for things like city pension funds (see "Cincy You asked" article, above) instead of the devil with a lit fuse which they in reality, most times, are.
Television has brought us death of the worst kind...pretend death...and an infinite number of 'do-overs - which is shown repetitively in cartoons. Down at the subconscious level the hype and bullshit of television really does stick...it leaves a nearly invisible coating which leaves the belief in 'free choice' but in reality colors decision-making processes.
Why do you think Clif and I watch very little television? Because, it's dangerous shit and people need to guard the portals of consciousness!
There's no warning labels on it at all. The technology is glorified, the T&A is glorified, and the rich inheriting sons and daughters of those who made fortunes are pushed on the public without the warnings that these are not reasonable lives to expect. Nossir, shit just rolls out like its real. Along the way, a little bit sticks to you brain. Not so much as to outright blind your thinking. It more 'colors it' - like the red-tinted lacquer does over the metallic base coat on a good candy-apple paintjob. TV tints and taints.
You want a good book to read some time? Fellow named Jerry Mander - an
advertising exec as I recall - wrote a very good book a good while back;
it's a penetrating look at cross cultural issues: In the Absence of the Sacred: The Failure of Technology and the Survival of the Indian Nations
I contend that whether you're talking of a racial haplotype, or a subsection of the broader socioeconomic strata divided up by income, the stimulus (media) - response (consumption drive) mechanisms are disturbingly similar. Criminals get driven to consuming too much sex and steal money which is only 6-degrees of separation from derivatives! One is cursed and boxed while the other gets a weekend place in the Hamptons, capiche?
P.S. If you want a great PhD -level paper topic, compare the amount of lifetime television consumption time racked up by 24-year olds in jail with 24-year olds in grad school. While you're at it, go ahead and tally up 'parent contact time' for both groups in their formative years.
When you get it done, try not to look surprised.
We be pimpin' the wrong values Jack...the enemy is in the living room and his name is Cyclops. Or in ours, Panasonic.
Inquiring Minds Dept. Here's a reasonable question which you might be asking:
This is in reference to my www.nationaldreamcenter.com site which asks people to post their dreams with the idea that when we get to a big 'tipping point' in language (Nov. 8-12, just so we're on the same page) we may be able to learn a little something about the relationship (if any) between tipping points and their relationship to dreams with possible precognitive content.
As to the specifics of "Why no terrorism category?" there are two reasons why I didn't set up that category. The first is that if someone (other than government) was doing this kind of surveying, I'd expect the government to want to develop a relationship since the 't' word is a huge area of focus for them. As a matter of choice, my life is complicated enough - without developing federal agency relationships - so by leaving the 'terrorist' event category off, I manage out profile downward a bit.
The second point is that by using a word like "Terrorism" which is emotionally 'hot' - it may tend to color where people place their dreams in self-elected categories. In other words, by putting in emotionally 'hot' terms like 'terrorism' or 'porn' you can see how the 'middle of the road' data collection mission around baseline archetypes (earth, air, fire, water, money/wealth, etc) could easily be morphed into a ratings-driven or traffic-heavy site and that might skew the underlying data collection.
Even so, we get some really interesting oddities (one was posted for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers earlier this week, for example.
And...it's not like I wouldn't pass along word if there was something that had terrorist potential. For example, in July we had two nearly identical dreams which were related to the 't' word which were so close in their description of an event - and the dreamers unrelated and 150-miles apart that I passed both dreams along to 'friends in green' who presumable passed them along to their colleagues. So far nothing has happened (at least publicly) in this, but if it does, or around the end of the year, I'll fill subscribers in on the two dreams.
So to summarize: I like my simple like, don't want to skew data, BUT if something screams out of the data as a coincidence, we of course pass it on to friends who know people. How's that for looking after all interests?
Conspiracy Thinking: Repackaging the Inquisition Here's one...Now making the rounds on some of the conspiracy board: The idea that the Spanish Inquisition never really ended and became the foundation for the Illuminati and the New World Order. Who needs a rack when you've got a Gitmo? Or so goes the thinking that also holds that the history of western civilization is really the history of the Inquisition and its follow-on impacts...
'The Israeli Mistake'? A number of readers have been asking if the stuxnet virus, presently trying to camp on programmable logic controllers (PLC's) at the Iranian nuclear planet about 11-miles southeast of the coast city of Bushehr might be the 'Israeli mistake' which has popped up in Clif's data work for a long period (a couple of years now...).
Answer: Who knows? BUT if the Muslim world extremists turn around an unleashes a super-virus that takes out the US banking system and takes down the SCADA networks that control everything from elecvtrical grid distribution to oil and gas pipeline controls to even railroad operations, then yes, maybe Stuxnet will be 'it'.
Clif is working on the short-term values report which should be out about October 20 (Universe permitting) but in the meantime, might want to plan on a few extra bucks (cash) on hand for the Nov. 8-12 'tipping point' just in case.
More in our Peoplenomics report this weekend as we play "Deadly Scenarios".
This is Sick Dept. The Mercola.com site has a good read on how "One in Six Patients Report Getting Wrong Diagnosis". Hand me a carrot and I'll drop into my Mel Blanc voice: "Nyah...what's up doc?"
Wednesday September 29, 2010 Gold/Silver Ratio May be time to start watching the gold/silver ratio again, since we seem to be on the cusp of another web bot project hit because somewhere in here we should notice that silver starts to separate from gold and begin an ascent on its own.
You can see this morning where at its high, silver sailed on through $22 briefly? A little back of the envelope calculation the ratio shows that this morning, it took (at session highs to press time) 59.6325 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. With me on this?
Next, click over to Gold-Eagle's collection of charts of the Gold -to-Silver ratio and tell me what you see? Third chart down, referring to the left axis for the ratio and it looks to my (bloodshot, droopy) eyes like we could be headed down toward the 50:1 ratio.
One more attempt to use a calculator and then we'll move on to other matters: IF gold were to stay at $1,300 and silver comes up to a 50:1 ratio where it's been as recently as 2005-2006, that sort of says $26 silver could be in the offing.
No, this is not investment advice, since I want no part of your liabilities - I have enough of my own, thanks. But, remember in 2005 when I was telling you how Elaine and I were buying silver at $7.05 and down as low as $6.94? Why, today I'm feeling like a regular gamned denius. (Think of wucking fonderful...it'll come to you what I meant...)
Market of Madness - As Goes Housing I forgot to mention that Robin Landry had sent out a note on Sunday night about how the high may be in, although he was expecting the market might hang around the recent highs for another day or two (today and tomorrow) since it is the end of the month and you'll sometimes see "window dressing" [which is even more pronounced when quarters end].
The informed UrbanSurvival reader already knew that the Case-Shiller/S&P Housing report would be key to the Tuesday session but of all the charts, the one that was most meaningful was this one:
...which says the 20 City Composite is back to 2003 levels.
Or, are they?
I'm not sure of this (check me on this!) but I don't think the Case-Shiller/S&PO report adjusts for inflation. I know I wouldn't if I was doing the report because inflation-adjusting is a highly contentious thing; can of worms not to be opened, especially in public.
But, as long as I brought it up, let's suppose that a hypothetical 20-city index was at $150,000 (plus or minus a cheeseburger) in 2003 and today you could sell the same house for the same dough - or you could have in July which is the underlying data date. With me?
How much loss of purchasing power would there be? Putting the Minneapolis Fed's inflation calculator (here) to work we see that in order to have the same purchasing power in 2010 that $150,000 house would really need to sell for $179,100 in 2010 dollars.
I won't spoil the fun for you - but have a look inflation adjusted pricing as a homework assignment. Eye opening. --- Somewhere along in here, the caffeine may cause you to wonder why I am focused so much on the Case/S&P housing numbers. Well, far as I'm concerned, they are a gold-standard data set. Damn fine work and data I'm willing to pin my economic thinking on. After I make inflation adjustements, which is my particular bent, anyway.
The other reason is it leads into the story this morning from the Mortgage Bankers Association about weekly mortgage applications which IS very current:
The slowdown in mortgage originations is somewhat seasonal - people move less when summer is over and the kids back in school and such. Still, it does bring up the ugly thinking about 'double dipping' this fall and as soon as month-end window dressing is done in the markets, driving down prices a good bit for longer term positions should be interesting to watch.
Insider Selling A couple of readers asked me if I had seen the stories about that insider selling of stocks was running 1400:1 based on the latest Bloomberg data out this week.
Well, no, I hadn't bothering firing up a spreadsheet for that BUT since I am the Prince of Spreadsheets and the Text-->to Columns function (data tab, Excel 2007) here's the real deal:
On a dollar basis, the real ratio is $1411.17 out for every dollar being put in. BUT the financial pundits have been led astray just a teensy bit because that's on a dollar basis. On a shares basis, the inside selling was only 579.6482 : 1 which I just know makes you feel better.
Say, you don't think this would explain that recent jump up in short positions in options, do you?
Still Mystified More than just crazy George the nutjob (spell checked that) is wondering why the market didn't react to the drop in consumer confidence announced by the Conference Board on Tuesday:
If I follow the logic of the non-UrbanSurvival reading financial press, their logic (or what they pass off as logic) is that the decline was less than expected.
This kind of journalism, which seems to pop up at the end of the month often times, is part of the New School of reporting that would report someone whipping themselves with a chain as being in a good spot. "Why just think what a marvelous improvement in feelings he'll have when he stops!" they will excitedly report.
The financial press 'average take' seemed to be the decline in confidence was similarly getting near stopping which would be a good thing. But, around here with the longer macro view of things, it's all just part of the historical rhyming of "Good times are just ahead, brother" that we heard in the last depression.
Terror Threat Up A little early to be the "October Surprise" a cynic might say, but the reports of a heightened state of terrorism alert is certainly of interest.
The fact that Europe is on such a high watch seems interesting. Don't know if you caught a couple of days ago how there were 2 killed and more than a dozen injured when a home in Belgium blew up. Officially is was a 'gas explosion' BUT that's not for certain and I noticed in some of the foreign press that the explosion was in a "Turkish-dominated" district.
And yes, the Belgian royals are often mentioned as elites... Oh, and you saw where 10's of thousands are marching in Brussels Belgium against EU austerity moves.
We'll keep an eye open to (bad pun alert, bad pun alert) to "See what news from Brussels sprouts..." (rim shot)
Ditto (of is it ibid?) demonstrations are the main in Spain it's plain...which in a moment will bring us to the rain, but first let me explain... --- ...around the background of this Belgium stuff is the report a couple of weeks back about how Belgian police found 40 kg (84 pounds or so) of explosives at a Copenhagen bomber's home... --- Germany is telling its citizens there are no imminent threats there. Oktoberfest jitters allayed?
Swim School Mess of tropical storms and rainfall in South Florida where schools open today.
Coping: "The Best Of" - On the Road This being 'hump day' for the week (meaning after noon today, you've over 'the hump' on the way to Friday, I thought I'd pass on one of the best "road warrior" and traveler tips ever.
Have a list or 4-5 things that you really like doing and when you go traveling to far away cities, go with intention looking for those best-of-the-best in each of those places you visit. In short order, you should become a real expert. --- Short story about how this works: A friend of mine - who I once worked for as what would be equivalent to a regional division or zone manager at one point had to do a lot of traveling as he was coming up through the ranks.
One thing he decided to do was to try and track down the best hamburger in America. My friend would arrive in whatever city, do his work, and at the end of the day start asking around "Who's got the best burger in town?"
Then he'd go to the appointed spot, and when he arrived he'd order "The best hamburger you make because I hear you make some good ones..." More often than not, he'd get some marvelous burgers and - as a sub plot to his munchings - he'd also order fries and would keep separate tabs on them.
Of course, the perfect burger is like the perfect sailboat - such a thing may not exist. Everything is about compromise. Some were over done, others underdone, some used a rough grind of meat (almost chili grind) while others were too finely minced. Then you had the coverage of the bun. Some hug out over the sides, some were too small. Good cheese and bad, fresh onion or oldish, condiments on the side or preapplied...he turned it into quite a science. Hmmm...what kind of dill was that? Farman's or Mt. Olive...
Lest you think this absurd, the esteemed Gentlemen's Quarterly (GQ)
did an article back in 2006 on topic under the heading "The
20 Hamburgers You Must Eat Before You Die". What was it that inspired me to wax on about burgers this morning? a reader about our upcoming trip out West:
We may not make it down into Phoenix; our route of travel is west on I-40 out to Prescott (meetings with my Commodity guy JB Slear at www.fortwealth.com ) and attending a Dr. David Hawkins seminar in Cottonwood, Arizona called "Spiritual Life in Today's World" which promises to be interesting, then a visit to Payson and some time with two of Elaine's boys, then down through the Salt River Canyon (where the headwaters of Phoenix's Salt River Project reside) and then back over to the ranch stopping not sure where - those details will be worked out by Microsoft Streets & Trips, my dartboard, and who's got the best room rate to high speed internet ratios...one of the To-Do items for this morning. --- At one point, back in the Pacific Northwest, I went through a best Veal Picata phase and then a best Meat Spaghetti phase. A while later, it was the "Best Jazz Club" phase while we were in SF and SoCal...that was fun. Not in any particular phase right now, although when I stepped on the scale this morning the LCD display come up with an odd error code:
"Try salads"
The Metaphoring Generalizer Not sure what to do with this email...
Since the writer of this lil' epistle holds a PhD, I have to assume this is a case of publish or perish, so in the interest of academic honesty let me answer each point best I can:
However, your point about class envy and The Rich is well-taken. Perhaps I should be more specific: I don't have a problem with the rich being rich, as long as their concentration of wealth is systemically held in check at some reasonable level.
Maybe something like the 'bottom 80%' should get 50% of net worth and on the financial wealth side, I'd argue that once concentration of power in the hands of the very few passed a certain point, democracy stops being democratic and becomes ruled by interest groups that operate at the beck and call of the ultra rich.
I got the idea that "The New Elite" would be a fine book to read (it's on my list) since it likely gives a series of good data points on the road to financial exploitation.
Personal Observation: Concentration of wealth seems to be a progressive disease and the mindset changes that go with it are noticeable if you run with people across a wide social spectrum near the top.
Let me see if we can agree on some 'scaling' here, since I failed to articulate that clearly:
I propose the ultra rich be those who had parents with $5 million (1980 dollars) of net worth. And that theses kids have passed the $100 million of net worth boundary.
Then we have the "getting there" who are in the $50-100 million range.
The upper incomes (the 'New Elites" topic) seem to be those in the couple of million up to $50 million range.
Then there's the plain upper income folks with $250,000 to $2 or $3 million.
I probably didn't explain myself clearly enough - hard to do that at this ungodly hour. When I'm talking about the ultra rich and the concentration of power, I'm not talking the $10-million net worth folks, although I know a few and I've noticed their behavior changes over time and it seems to some extent that change is related to income and wealth levels. --- I will often get some points wrong - that's the nice thing about this web site - always a work in progress. But while being patrons of the arts sounds egalitarian and a good thing at the lower level of 'rich', by the time it gets up to the Ultra Rich level, things seem to take on a 'bread and circuses undercurrent.'
Most of the Ultra Rich got that way by having a huge head start by having the genius-level luck of the draw to be born into a family of substantial preexisting wealth. The simplest way to become a multimillionaire ($50-million and up into the billions) in America is to come from a multimillionaire family.
Ure's Current Hypothesis (UCH) is that "If the Ultra Rich were really the egalitarians they'd have us believe, they'd stop the massive inheritances spawn of the ultra rich enjoy."
I expect (and it seems a reasonable thing to expect) that if the Ultra Rich knew that they would not be able to pass on more than some modest about to their children ($1-million per child, maximum value of all conveyed assets, no exceptions, no offshore trusts, no prepaid schooling, no prepaid legal firms, yada, yada, or other yet to be concocted weasel games ad infinitum) they might be inclined to make a different set of decisions than if they were able to pass on untold millions of family fortunes to perpetuate the same aristocracy...
Needless to say, I await your response. I figure if I pass on enough dough to each of my kids to buy a new Prius, that's about right.
I expect you'll argue valiantly for "free markets" and such, but in order to have truly free markets, there oughta to be everyone starting from the same starting point, not with a $100-million bank roll.
I'm NOT expressing class envy there. I'm stating plain as day that the ultra rich have hijacked the system and the concentration of more financial power in the hands of 'the few' (above the level likely to be interviewed) continues to pose one of the greatest threats to America.
America (and free enterprise) is not about finishing the same - that'd be socialism. But genuine democracy is about all of us beginning the race of life from some semblance of the same set of starting blocks.,
PS: Let me know when you find the Billionaire who is giving everything away but $1-million per child in total assets. That'd be some who not only mouths words like Democracy, but who also is capable of acting in accordance with their core values. Not sure they exist.
Reader note: In the event of a severe disability, naturally the $1-million cap would come off in order to fund lifetime care as a parent would presumably like to do. But ask yourself "How much of Hollywood and those in cult of personality magazines content would be if spoiled offspring were without a financial kick start from some past family fortune passed on?" Inheritances beyond some size seem to me dangerous (and anti-democratic thing).
As along as the American aristocracy can perpetuate its self-interested concentration of power, we're in a country where (to twist up Orwell's phrase) "All people are created equal; just some are a little more equal than others."
The inheritance question is not just about how much money is passed on to insulate kids from the downside: It's also about clearing the overhead that presently limits wealth redistribution and plays in to concentration of power at the top.
A Reading Note A couple of readers have ask me to "make the font bigger" in my morning rambles and I think I have found the problem (if there was one?). In FrontPage there is a style called Normal.MsoPlain and while it seems to look the same on the screen as Normal, it may not show up on mobile devices the same after I run it through my MOBI-Reader conversion tool, post it on the blog version of the daily rants (here), or report to the mirror site since I usually have other things ahead of a search for consistency between web styles on my 250-foot rolled up To-Do list.
So, in an effort to put things right, we'll try this version of Normal and inquire as to whether it's really any different than the Mso.Plain version of normal, and if not, just assume that this is Universe joining in on the private joke between Clif and me... a one worder about the weirder:
"Normal"
Tuesday September 28, 2010 Runway And Run Time is quickly running out this week for any major progress to come out of Washington where things look to shut down this Friday so the professional political hacks can have plenty of time to defend their time at the trough this fall.
Wanna bet there will be an "emergency session" after elections? --- President Obama is being dogged by questions about why his two daughters are doing to a spendy private school instead of going to DC public schools. He's taking the position that the private school is better than DC's offer at the moment... --- Curiously, while Obama says voter apathy among democorps is "inexcusable" we have to sit back and wonder if our frequently characterizations of Washington as a high-bidder heaven for elites and lobbyists is very much (if at all) off the mark.
While we're reading about how Veep Joe is telling demos to 'buck up' and 'stop whining' I have to admit being hard-pressed to see much change in conduct between the Obama team so far and what we got under the Bushistas before them. --- Still, on the other side, there's something to be said about how the right is conducting itself. You saw last week where rep. Peter DeFazio is trying to find out who's behind the shadowy group running ads against him?
All in all: America has arrived on the doorstep of the "Silly Season" and talking about politics shows it shares some elements of economics: For example, just as lining up all the economists in the world end to end won't reach a conclusion, neither will lining up all the politicians. But damn, look how much longer the line is!
Speaking of Hot Air With Washington one obvious source, we could also point to Los Angeles where the temp hit 113 on Monday. Long Beach tied its 111 record.
Of course it was cooler in Washington - congress is winding down, right?
California's Smoke Vape me: Curious thing to watch, and plenty of media coverage on the Prop 19 issue up for a vote which would legalize pot and leave local taxing options. A kind of "I'll cut, you vote" deal. My question is simple: Would this slow down illegal border-crossing?
I see where the Governator says this would make California the 'laughing stock' of the country. Too late, that ship sailed long ago.
China Japan Watch "Okinawa Weighs in on China-Japan Spat" headlines the Wall St. Journal online this morning as we continue tracking the rising tensions about Japanese holdings in what China thinks is their back water in the waters north of Taiwan...Okinawa doesn't want Japan to back down, it seems... --- Well Slap My Chicken Dept: China's putting a higher tariff on chickens coming in from the USA. Gotta be a happy Colonel in there somewhere...
Government Motors Meantime, rumors are swirling about that General Motors - part owned by us taxpayers - may be setting up for sale to China. For one thing, Chinese carmaker SAIC may be buying in to GM shares and China GM sales are now running $60-billion a year while
Readers are asking "Would the Obama administration OK Chinavyrolet?"
Speaking of our favorite administration (by default since there's not another choice, LOL)...
It's Only a Contract Department You absolutely have to read Michael Sneed's column in today's Chicago Sun-Times because he reveals that WH Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is trying to move back into his old home in Chicago which is leased by a fellow who doesn't want to move until the lease is up in June of next year. All of which makes Sneed's column the juiciest political piece of the morning.
Gee, gosh, couldn't have happened to a nicer mayoral candidate, LOL...
Note for Peoplenomics Subscribers A curious thing is showing up in the data from my www.nationaldreamcenter.com site. Short write-up on it at our premium service www.peoplenomics.com. Just - please - don't go reposting this...want to keep the data stream free of the influence, thanks. Still a damn odd one in light of Nov. 8-12.
New Shortening Cargill has come out with a new shortening for the baking industry that may result in the appearance of more "Omega 3" claims in baked goods:
Not sure how to take this... I breads without shortening, but no doubt this will start coming into the marketplace. But calling it a 'frankenshortening' (as one reader did in an email) may be going a bit far...Omega-3's in the morning muffin seems reasonable enough to me...but then again, talk about anything sweet with coffee and oh-oh, there go my Danish genes.
Coping: Uptight About Art My mention yesterday of a painting ("The Forgotten Man"). On email headlined "The Print" came in with a single word: "Bullshit!" while another came in "Love that print - I may have to purchase that myself..."
"Why mention this a second morning in a row, George? Hard up for something to write about?"
No, not hardly. Two points here: First, whenever people read something on UrbanSurvival (or the related mirror site ( www.independencejournal.com ) or on the blog or MOBI-Reader versions, I think there's an assumption that I've gone Limbaugh or O'Reilly, or have some down with some variant of rabid-righteous disease.
Well, that's just not the case at all; sorry. I happen to really enjoy well-done political art. It tends to remind me how silly humans are and how we get polarized around political issues.
Apparently, the reader that took umbrage at my mention of "The Forgotten Man" missed my February 9, 2007 report in which I described another political painting which I have here at the ranch which was done by the cover artist for Mad Magazine (who last I heard lived up in upstate Michigan. He created a genius poster which I had converted to a poster out of my own pocket called "Pirates of the Constitution"...a brilliant take off on the movie poster for Pirates of the Caribbean.
I don't recall getting email from disappointed readers telling me I was a so-and-so for mentioning the piece at the time. But, I think what's changed is that America is becoming a more polarized place. Remember when Bush 2 was saying things like "You're either with us or against us"? That's how polarization works: The speaker implies through the statement that there are only two choices on the table.
So who is Timothy Petropoulos who graduates (Class of '11) from Baruch College? Well, if I have this right (no promises, the coffee is still soaking in) he wrote a fine letter which appeared in yesterday's online student newspaper "the ticker" and it says in part:
I think Petropoulos has it exactly right.
I've always that that one of the important meanings of the Declaration of Independence is that we should honor and encourage independence of thought.
The simplicism of "With us or against us" is simply not acceptable; the world is too complex to be roped into group membership. We try to remind folks on a daily basis what happens to herds in the end. You really wanna be a 'little doggie' for someone?
OMG has America evolved so much! Why, in the space of 100-years, we've gone from cowboys doing the herding to PR firms doing the herding...and no one seems to have noticed. Is this a great country, or what?
ET Correction Several readers sent in notes correcting our mention of laws gover4ning contact withy ET's. Several pointed to a Snopes article that the decontamination laws that were once on the books had been largely repealed in 1991. That said, I can assure you that a government 'near you' would not be pleased if you had contact withy any seriously off-earthly entity and you took the position as an individual that you didn't care to talk about your conversation with on-ground Authority. They have a way with the umpteen and a half gazillion laws on the books of finding something for all occasions.
Still, that puts me in the same league with one reader who said "This is about the only federal law I'd be in a hurry to break..." Now all we need is some ET attractant..
Aha! Reader reports this, which seems related:
Never been a big fan of strawberry ice cream? No worries! Readers around here offer all kinds of suggestions such as pointing out that marijuana ice cream has now hit the shelves in Santa Cruz...
If we see erratically performing aerial objects over SC, no doubt it will be the strawberry-Jane combo cones...
Arizona Highways No, not the famous photographic magazine...I mean kour upcoming trip out west in a couple of weeks. On the way back, I may take a swing through Dulce, New Mexico to see if I can find what's now being outed as the Rio Arriba UFO base...
Inquiring Minds Here's a good one for a second-muffin ponder:
I've sent this reader a copy of this week's Peoplenomics report (see below) because it gets into exactly this concentration of wealth issue. As to touting the Turks and Caicos, (remember, I was part of the airline team that brought jet service to Providenciales in 1985/86, have been in and out of Grand Turk on everything from a Westwind business jet to single engine prop jobs) these islands - like the Cayman Islands - are British Crown Colonies where income taxes are not used and this makes them extremely attractive to the upper crust of society as a neat way to accumulate wealth on top of wealth without paying Uncle. Little people can can use the same tactics, but few do.
I would expect (again I haven't read it yet) that the authors are doing 'schooling' more than 'marketing'....
Schooling: One way this worked - during the time I was in the Caribbean - was people in the US who owned large real estate holdings, like a major apartment, for example in Houston or Dallas, would buy the apartment. They'd they give some 'incentives' to pals in the S&L business to given them a very favorable appraisal...so good, in fact that they could do a refi.
Now (in this morning's class at George's School of Offshore Finance) what they'd do next is refinance the property and since proceeds of a loan were not taxable income (it's a debt that has to be repaid, right?) they'd simple dump cash into a Zero-Halliburton case and go for a 3½ hour plane ride (more like 4½ to Grand Turk or Provo) and deposit the refi proceeds in the offshore bank. And, since the offshore trust was set up so that there was a "local nominee" who would make all the investment decisions in the account, the argument could be made that they didn't "control" the foreign account, which offshore advisors would tell them was the point of distinction with IRS.
If the property later failed (and more than a few did in a little bubble called the S&L Crisis) the owners of the US property would simply default, giving the keys back to the bank. The loan proceeds from the refi were safely tucked way offshore and with a big enough property, say something in the $5-10 million price range, pulling out $1-3 million wasn't hard and if you put $3-million tax free (remember: loan proceeds) into an offshore account that you don't arguable "control" - that's done by the local trust nominees, well, that's how this stuff works.
So, like I said, mentioning Grand Turk is probably appropriate in the book, since the fees were at the time (and may still be) lower than competing tax haven rates. Amazing the business models you used to be able to hear in the bar at the Kitina Hotel on GT. If you want to find out the latest 'tax avoidance' schemes, all you need to do is hang around the bars in the tax havens - you can usually score all kinds of insights.
On "financial wealth": As to the figure that the top 20% of Americans own 85% of the financial wealth? That's actually low. Try the top 20% own an amazing 93% of the financial wealth in America. The 83% figure is more like the top 10 percent.
When you talk about Net Worth: 85% is owned by the top 20% which means those of us in the bottom 80% get 15% of net worth. --- Under lying is the ugly truth which we understand only too well around here: The door to upward mobility has been closed and blocked for honest people since maybe as late as the mid 1980's. Since then, the people who have made it as newcomers into the upper crust of "Haves" usually have gotten there through some kind of scam. Whether that was taking an internet company through an IPO, or coming from a rich family that could afford to put you into a private school, or running the 'right' secret society in college, one of the eye-openers in the Peoplenomics report this week is that America is devolving into a Fourth World state. At least in the Third World the concentrations of wealth are lower and new entrants can still make it into that rarified upper crust through hard work. That's door is pretty-much closed in America now.
The American aristocracy is an amazing horizontal combination with the effect of a single club at the top to which membership is NOT freely granted except by marriage or anointment. I could give you two governors to compare, but I think you're bright enough to figure out which one did not ventura down the anointment path...
Monday September 27, 2010 Another War Front in The Making? When I was watching the news last night on Japanese television (NHK, English version) I was struck by the possible migration path between events in disputed islands near China and how that could evolve into an unthinkable showdown between China and the US.
Let me start at the beginning: The Senkaku Islands, also known as the Diaoyu or Pinnacle Islands, were first claimed by Japan in 1895, however they have also been claimed by both Taiwan and Mainland China. Wikipedia picks it up from there with some background on claims and what's driving this into the headlines:
Now we fast-forward to present times and find that two Japanese patrol vessels were rammed by a Chinese fishing vessel in international waters - or what the Chinese claim were international waters, and now Japan is demanding compensation from China.
Oh, sure, the pictures on NHK looked like the "damages" were something that you or I would be able to fix with a half-day of welding and a couple of two pound cans of 3-M Bondo, and three cans of spray paint.
Is this the end of it? Heck no! Never let a good crisis go to waste, seems to be China's thinking, so they have raised the level of 'checks' on Japanese goods coming into China, which slows down trade and costs Japanese firms money. Tit for tat.
What's more, this dispute seems to have improved relations between China and Russia, which just today announced completion of a shared pipeline project. So is it coincidence that the Xinhua news agency headlined recently "Japan's claim on Diaoyu Islands distorts facts, Russian experts say"?
Maybe - or maybe not: My is to offer this as a crisis to watch that has all the potential of blowing up into a real serious showdown right up through nuclear exchange. Why? First, the US is spread thin in the region already and the Chinese are well-aware of the US-South Korea naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
One of the NHK commentators also noted that China has, in so many words, a 'hard time letting go of territory it considers theirs' and there's a bunch of real estate both here and nearby that China once owned beyond just the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Taiwan, for one.
Where this escalates may be October. NHK reported that Japan may ask the US to conduct naval operations in the area. Also in play are the economic pressure points which are starting to be applied; take for example the story this morning that "China rises and rises, yet still gets foreign aid."
This probably will not turn into a global nuclear flashpoint as we near the global tipping point November 8-12th, but with our 'feelers out' this one has some potential to take the US/MSM by surprise and drag us into another large overseas commitment of war-making resource.
Short term? Could be good for the market which could (with the futures up on the morning) get to that Robin Landry target around 11,041 today or early this week.
The Weak Ahead Futures may lead the market to an almost predictable Monday morning rise, but the headwinds will build over the next few days. Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller/S&P 20-market housing report is due out and then on Thursday the GDP numbers along with the weekly unemployment report. Another bad one like last week and the market's rise could be undermined.
For today, no doubt the airlines will be in play since Southwest is planning to acquire AirTran in a $1.4-billion dollar deal.
Later on in the session, reality may come calling as one of the biggest banks in Ireland has had its senior debt whacked by Moody's.
Off Screen - For Now There's another very closely watched foreclosure suit reportedly due up next month down in Florida involving JP Morgan Chase and their procedures. Keep an eye on it since this could be a precedent setter...
West Bank Unfrozen
Another big story is the J-Post coverage of
the end of
the West bank building freeze. The year-long freeze ended Sunday
evening, although there has been some construction work going on in the area
throughout the 'freeze' since buildings which were 'under construction' when the
freeze began were still permitted to be completed. While there had been some hopes for direct talks between the parties, those have now collapsed brining with it predictions of more terror in the region. Palestinians are pondering their next move.
Terra Not So Firma A 5.7 earthquake in Southern Iran today has me wondering if this is a 'natural' occurrence or part of a whole different kind of warfare, featuring new technologies? (Coverage of the Stuxnet worm in the Coping section below the ad)
This quake was centered about 416 miles south of Tehran, but here's the interesting number: Only 69 miles from the controversial Bushehr reactor site (which is 11 miles southeast of Bushehr city). Coincidence or high tech goodies? I'm sure the conspiracy boards will be full of it... --- Backyard kind of interesting: A 3.0 in Nebraska...yeh, Nebraska of all places.
Wisconsin Flooding Up the road a piece, a sharp-eyed reader caught this little historical rhyme for us:
Food waters continue to be a problem in central Wisconsin today. --- Kind of the opposite kind of problem in Slovenia where a whole river disappeared overnight... no, I won't do the translation for you - that's something you've got to learn, right? Come on! Where's your spirit of adventure? Locked up in Gitmo of something?
Some Damn Curious Timing Word that the UN has appointed a Malaysian astrophysicist as the official "first point of contact" for ET's deciding to visit earth has me wondering what this world is coming to.
I called Clif all excited about this when new came out over the weekend: "Is this maybe someway related to the tipping point in November? Seems like damn curious timing, don't you think?"
"No..." and then we went through the discussion of how the UN is always doing odd things, so we need to ask "How is this any different than anything else they do...besides, how do you define outliers?"
That got me pondering since one of the other things Clif threw at me was that it's against federal law for 'regular folks' to have contact with ET's - something I didn't know.
I could manage the $5,000 fine OK, but at my age, even 10-minutes in jail isn't attractive which leaves us to wonder "If an alien showed up and wanted to have a chat, would you talk to them - you know, ask "Hey! What's after recombinant DNA, the cure for cancers, and can you sketch me out the quantum interdimensional device thingy ya'll use?"
Clif just takes this kind of development in stride, while my monkey-mind runs into overload on it. I'm buying strawberry ice cream, just in case...might even learn to bake a strawberry pie.
More details are expected today as that press conference in Washington where former military folks claiming that aliens 'tampered with our nukes' will release their story in detail...
Got some strawberry ice cream on hand?
Coping: Internet Pros and Cons Odds are fair that sometime today, the subject of the Internet will come up in conversation with someone you bump into. It may be in the context of the Iranians moaning about the Stuxnet virus which is making its way around inside of Iran, and m ay be able to prevent Iran's new nuclear facilities from coming on line. Because of the sophistication of this particular worm, a State actor - such as Israel - do come to mind as being the perps, but neat thing about worms is they don't carry "made in" labeling. It was first found by a Georgian (as in country) security outfit a couple of months back - in July according to this report.
Despite the enormity of implications, namely that this new weapons of mass denial of computing horsepower opens a new type of warfare on the 'net, there's already plenty of pointers showing the Internet to be turning more into battlefield and less into a robust backbone of society.
In a different area, the US government is planning to take steps to make it (even) easier for them to eavesdrop on Facebook and other social networks and also listen in on Blackberries/small handheld devices. Ostensibly, this would be for 'security' purposes, but groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation are digging in on topics like device-level surveillance and California's attempt to legally ban excessively violent videogames.
But something even more fundamentally concerning has been going on this weekend here in the Outback of East Texas: We've had 'net reliability issues this weekend. In particular, when I looked at the Internet traffic report last night (as we got tired of waiting a half-hour for a Netflix movie to finish buffering for play) I looked and sure enough, one of the Texas servers was down.
Since our livelihood depends on being able to hook up with clients online to work on this, or that, I maintain three 'on ramps' to the net out here at the end of the string, and two of them are still working just fine. However the loss of one of our main circuits (2 MB each way and two hops from fiber) being down is a serious heads-up about net reliability.
The outage comes at a coincidental time. Tomorrow night, I'll be doing a short PowerPoint and discussion at the local ham radio club about the threats of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) not only as a 'net disrupter, but also (as shown by Iran's current experiences) potentially taking out SCADA controls of large power distribution systems.
Been meaning to mention this because I covered it in Peoplenomics back on September 5th, there was a dandy drawing of systemic interdependencies put together by the US EMP Commission some time ago and it's a good model to stare at for a while because it not only shows what could happen in the event of and EMP attack on America, but also gives us a thought-model for what could happen when (I think more likely than if ) a Stuxnet-like worm is launched against the US;. Payback's a bitch and the relationships are multiple:
Since my particular monkey-mind is fascinated with finance and has evolved a viewpoint that Everything's a Business Model (EMB), someone with high voltage engineering or software engineering could look at systemic relationships and find vulnerabilities that might be shocking to most Americans.
We take the internet for granted, but there's an emergent reality in law enforcement and military circles that acknowledges the 'net has a huge soft underbelly which could be exploited by enemies of ours. Severe attacks on the net are no longer a matter of 'if' so much as a matter of 'where' and 'what'.
There's been a parade of people - including a former CIA director - coming out saying the president should have the ability to turn of the internet, if needed. Who determines that?.
Sad to see, but even if you have DSL, have you considered trying to make a dial-up connection? I worry about reliability as much as speed.
If you have a few moments right now, and you have high bandwidth like DSL or a cable modem you've grown accustomed to, go ahead and unplug it and then try making a dial-up connection.
In the world of UrbanSurvival, being able to maintain good coms is right up there with having a fire-striker and a good pocket knife. Don't suppose you have your operating system disks handy too, do you? I hear some folks in Iran are looking for theirs.
Since You Asked... People have asked "What happened to JB Slear ebook MyGroPonics - about vertical hydroponics? Has its own website now: www.mygroponics.com. n
Life on the Ranch: This is Cool This may be the first time since last spring when the temps hit a high under 80. The cats - who managed to sleep away most of the summer - have come back to life. They're now waiting for us with rocks and baseball bats trying to get in the house if we have even a momentary lapse of attention at the door.
I've told them as soon as they bring in a legit mouse and drop it at our feet they can come in. I'm trying to transition them to a co-operative business model instead of the credit model I followed previously. Under that, they promised to work hard in return for food and treats, however the promised mice never seemed to be caught.
Times being what they are, the cats have hired a slick big city attorney and I expect this will escalate into a full-on legal showdown. They're also filing complaints with the state over our failure to pay them a COLA for the past two years, but I have my ways of dealing with that.
I'm going to 1099 'em on their flea and tick meds and anything over a half cup of dry food daily each. Then I'll rat them out to Uncle...
Speaking of Uncle Not often I mention art, but there's this print at the McNaughton Fine Art Company that I may break down and buy a print of...seems to sum up what a lot of people are feeling...the small prints start at $29...
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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", by authors Taylor,
Harrison, and Kraus quotes the authors as stating 20 percent of the USA
population owns 85 percent of the wealth. I have placed a request online for
this title at my library and am first in the line. I will check what sources
their conclusions are drawn from once I receive the book. 
