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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday November
28,
2009 07:55 AM CST New
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This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. . Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com, Kindle (.MOBI) version here
Reminders: Saturday's report and Sunday's more in-depth weekly article are for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers only. Saturday is another typical look at atypical markets, or is that the other way around...hmmm..., The Sunday Peoplenomics report this week is on "Loss-Proof Investing" - something very few investment advisors talk much about.
If you're not a subscriber - have a great weekend (see the commentary from earlier this week) and we'll see you back front & center on Monday morning about 8 AM Central time...peace out. Friday November 27, 2009 Universe's Wry Humor I think it happens slowly...you go through Life noticing an increasing number of strange synchronicities which reminds me the new edition of C.G. Jung's Red Book is finally shipping). and as the synchronistic events mount up, one develops an appreciation for the fine dance of co-creation. And every so often - like this morning, for example - we get a chance to see first hand that not only is out Great Dance partner always leading, but often with a fine-to-wry sense of humor at that.
I refer, however obtusely, to the term "Black Friday" which will not only indicate black as in getting "retailers into the black" (or at least nearer it) but the second meaning that goes back a couple of Friday's to the Friday the 13th/bad luck meaning grounded in all kinds of history including numerology, Norse legends, and just so they don't feel slighted, the mass arrest of Knights Templar in 1307 by King Philip. A kind of ultra-bad-luck day as the price of gold has tumbled more than $30 in the early going which (by the Ure Ratio of gold moves times ten approximates Dow moves) suggests a 300 point (or more) tumble in the Dow at some point in today's trading.
The range on gold has been pretty impressive, too: A spread from high to low of just under $60 an ounce. Don't know about where you live, but here in sensible East Texas, nearly 6% moves in any commodity over the course of a single day pretty much defines 'volatility'.
European markets are trying to put on a little bounce early this morning - most of the serious damage was before and just at the open. The Brit's 'Footsie' had been up around 5370 earlier in the week but it managed to blow down to the 5,104 area before rallying this morning.
Take that kind of 5% move and apply it to the Dow and we have the potential to break down as low as 9,941 or thereabouts, but that's not the real story yet.
The real story is that such a move would penetrate the ascending trend line, below which technicians by the presumed boatload would jump over to the short side of the markets and you'd be able to kiss goodbye to the sugar plum fairy dreams of a Dow making new highs - at least till late spring since the technical gates would be open for a retest of March's lows which are would put us 3,800 Dow points lower than where we left things before Turkey Day.
It's a safe bet that one faction of the PowersThatBe will try to paint the tape pretty hard in order to keep above that trend channel, and therein lies the most interesting question of all: Can they do it?
It's always hard to beat the team with the printing press, so I'm not even trying on this one. The goal-line stand around 10,000 should be amusing, but a move under 10,000 on a weekly basis it is a prerequisite for me to even think about put-buying, although that trend support lines will keep moving up over time. --- So What's Causing This? If you thought it was the oft repeated/forwarded rumors on the net about how some central bank gold is alleged to have been filled with similar weights of tungsten, wrong. If you thought it was because of a grim retail outlook and the prospect of taxation gone berserk because of the latest act of own slapstick government, wrong again.
Nope: Let's back up. Did you ever get the email that went around, oh maybe a year ago with the pictures of the new winter skiing facility in Dubai? It's been all over the net - and with some good reviews as well. But, if you're like me, an alarm bell may have gone off in the back of your head asking "Why would these good people build a Western-style skiing operation in the midst of a country which is largely desert, oil, and flattish? Does this seem, oh, you know...like malinvestment?" We leave that to markets to decide...
Which they did after the carefully timed announcement that development projects presumed to include the prestigious "The World" project, would need to postpone payment on $60 billion in debt.
I distinctly recall thinking at the time of watching The World's artificial islands being built in high profile TV documentaries wondering "How long they will be able to keep going at this burn rate through their cash? Maybe they don't get enough rain to have really internalized the concept of 'saving for a rainy day'..."
Well, it's now raining in the financial sense...or the the Times Online headlines it "Dubai in deep water as ripples from debt crisis spread".
Not that this hasn't been expected: I've heard rumblings that the whole game in the American oil patch was to get the price of oil really high a couple of years back (remember $5 gas reports?) which would get a lot of the Middle East investment houses and projects depending on high prices. Then, by pushing down prices, drive many OPEC members to the brink - or in this case - just beyond. It's really quite artistic from a grand tactics perspective. Either that or stuff happens.
Best guess: the troubles in Dubai may be only a precursor to tougher times ahead in that region. From a Big Chess Game perspective, one has to wonder how much demand there will be in the post-Madoff, post-Bush, post-Bailouts world for uneconomic malinvestment. "Not much?" you're thinking. You're a frigging genius...no stopping you, is there...
So we begin trading this morning in a fine world-as-a-classroom setting where the main lesson seems to be "If you live in a desert and someone shows up selling winter sports gear funded by presumptions about high oil prices forever, be suspicious. Mighty damn suspicious."
That the West may be successful in its latest "Conquest By Business Model". Wasn't it Shakespeare who wrote "A fool and his proven reserves are sooner or later parted"? --- "Is this a web bot hit?" wondered a reader as the London Stock Exchange hit a 'technical hitch' in Thursday's heavy trading. Let's see how trading systems hold up in the next week or three and how that 10,000 line holds.
Black Friday, II Depending on who you care to quote, you can find both sides on the question of whether this year's outbreak of SSD (season shopping disorder) will be better or worse than last year. The WaPo headlines "This Black Friday may top last year's". A Barron's blog wonders if the deals will be enough to pry money from consumers.
Except for a few stocking stuffers, we're not buying much until January sales again this year. Holding the event observance is fine for this month. If someone said to you "If you can wait a month, you can get 25-40% off many items." do you think you could keep your credit card holstered for a few weeks? Surprisingly, most folks can't...which I suppose is why there are so many average people in the world, huh? Herd instincts are strong, I 'spose.
The Wall St. Cheat Sheet has been tallying up 20098 retailer store closings - worth a look to see where the belt-tightening is happening.
It's a shame Kwanzaa isn't a couple of weeks later....would have been the perfect sale-oriented commercial holiday. Oh well...maybe Groundhog Day (Feb 2) or Valentine's Day (Feb 14) will work out. Oh how about Chinese New Year on February 10th? Just pondering, sorry.
Sticks and Stones With word that the International Atomic Energy Agency has voted to censure Iran for its nuclear program, I'm left wondering "So what?"
The resolution also asks Iran to, in effect, rat itself out about any other hidden nuclear resources, but that doesn't seem any more likely than winning the Power Ball Lottery this week.
Climategate Five MP's in Australia have tossed in the towel now that climategate makes it clear that junk science and academic/PTB strong-arming was more the source of global warning. Implications of rigging the data are still being felt. --- But no, don't let the trip by president O to Copenhagen get interrupted. Gotta keep up appearances for the still gullible...or silent majority - call it what you will.
Criminal Coddling You saw where Roman "Polanski prepares for luxury Alpine house arrest"? Why is it in a world run crooked by the cadre of elites that justice is pronounced Just Us.
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Coping: Visions of Sugar Plums.... A
thoughtful reader sent me a pointer to The Official CIA Manual of Trickery and Deception --- I've only got a few items on my list this year. Among the most reasonable, I'd like to take Elaine to the Bahamas for a week provided I can find a great deal on hotel and air - and there's enough high speed internet so I can post along the way. She's got it on her list.
The next practical item is sending a decent-sized check to the local food bank. I figure that will go out in two installments: One around Christmas to impact local hunger in January and then another around my birthday in February.
Following that, a load of concrete to pour a foundation for a
small addition to my office and to put in the base for my ham
radio tower. That would need to be topped with
a Cubex quad antenna. Been
hankering to put one of them up ever since a childhood ham radio
pal (we're still friends after 50+ years) made one out of bamboo
fishing poles he got in Chinatown in Seattle...which gives you
an idea how long ago the 1960's were. Next on the list - which is looking more and more impractical all the time - would be a zero-timed 3.3 to 3.7 liter Porsche engine 'built' to about 400 HP or so to repower the normally aspirated 930 that's my one rolling collectable. Totally impractical and way too spendy, since such power plants go for $15K, but a fellow can dream and engine builders gotta eat, too. --- The important stuff I've already got: The wife, the house, the stores of goods just-in-case, and the human repellants to go with it all. (You figure it out.) Our health is good, outlook's bright and we've been able to give give a good measure back to our local community.
Ever since I was a kid and the Christmas Catalog arrived from Sears, and I spent hours trying to decide "Hmmm...which toy do I really want...if money were no object?" I've been watching my attitude change, ever so slowly. Evolving from toy catalog electric trains at age 8 to Porsche parts, ham radio gear, and used airplanes & sailboats on eBay doesn't seem like a whole lot of self-mastery to show for 60+ years. I did say ever so slowly, did I not? --- As soon as breakfast is over, I'm going to go build a huge fire and once its down to plenty of coals, I'll get out the big Dutch oven and make some all-day spaghetti sauce cooked outdoors. Might even build a small side-fire and try doing the noodles open fire style. Welded up a tripod for water boiling and such - should work just fine.
Simple stuff. A outdoors dinner to share with visiting guests; a different kind of 'fun' than the trains, radios, and such. Yet probably the most enduring.
Putting Down Camels You saw where 6,000 camels will be killed in Australia after over-running a town in the Outback. A reader in Oz sends this:
Dammit! I must really be dense not to see that killing is humane, while wounding is not. Ah, the fine humanity of it. See how screwed up I got by being born in a country founded by free-thinking religious outcasts rather than living in a former penal colony where such distinctions seem clear?
Dreams, Memories, Reflections Step up here, Jung man - tell Dr. George what's on Ure mind?
Let Dr. George see if he can help: Easter is April 4th next year. Oh - and that Cinderella with the golden dress dropping to the floor? Miss April maybe?
--- Send your comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week Increasing Your Personal Efficiency Without going overboard into the Human Potential Movement, I thought this week I would address a question I get asked with surprising frequency: "How do you get so much done?" The answer is really pretty simple - yet it's one of those invisible decisions that people generally don't spend any time thinking through. I have at least 14-weeks a year of productivity (based on 40-hour workweeks) that most people don't have the sense to reclaim as their own. Since the holiday period is when many people get enough time off work to spend at least a little on introspection, I thought this week I'd share a few thoughts on how we can each increase our 'personal efficiency'. I don't claim to be perfect at it - just a little better than average. But thanks to the fact that effort compounds over time almost like interest, it's a worthwhile study. We then apply this to some disturbing and quite possibly irreversible trends in today's headlines. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Maxa-Cookie Manager Been a while since I've updated you on how many cookies and web bugs have been removed from my main computer by the Maxa Cookie Manager from Maxa Tools: 1,602 web bugs and 54,131 cookies so far. It's amazing.
Take it for a free test drive by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will set you back $35 bucks, but Christmas is coming... Is your privacy worth it? Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
"Live on $10,000" A Year With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On The business model of this website is base Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course.... ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Thursday November 26, 2009
Death of the Dollar, Redux
Not only did the price of gold come within striking distance of the $1,200 mark on Wednesday (it pulled back some today) but the Buck dropped through the recent support area of 0.666 Euro and went on to a 15-month low.
None of this is especially surprising: Not to be overly critical of the president here, but the Obama crew has shattered first-year spending by a new president, while at the same time making plans to appear with Oprah Winfrey in a Christmas special and reading about himself in GQ if you look closely at this picture going viral today on the net.
If I
were in the HR Department at the White House, I might be
suggesting that Obama drop GQ and start reading the Wall St.
Journal, Baron's, or even this web site instead, since my old
airline days boss taught me long ago "We don't have any problems
more revenue won't fix..." Private sector revenue - know
what I'm saying? Should you be surprised that Obama's approval rating is down to 39%? Hardly.
Not that Obama's alone being somewhat 'blinded by the lights' - You saw where "France's first lady to take role in Woody Allen film"? But then again, she's not being paid to run the country.
Such is the developing surreal sense of everyday events.
Speaking of Surreal According to the predictive linguistics crew at www.halfpasthuman.com, now that we're in 'surreal land', another important temporal marker has just passed with word that authorities in Australia are planning to corral and then shoot some 6,000 wild camels that overran a town in the Outback. The imagery of a helicopter gunship blazing away at cornered camels is right up there with clubbing seals...emotionally, this is hot stuff. Not to mention surreal, of course.
The Aliens Among Us But wait! If you thought a narcissistic president and gunships killing camels was strange, tighten your seat belt for this: "Aliens 'already exist on earth', Bulgarian scientists claim."
The gist of the story is that the aliens here want to establish communication via thought, but we have not yet evolved enough as a species to be able to process at that level. Or, more nicely put, we don't seem to be going enough thinking; but then again, we hold certain truths to be self-evident.
Quick - look surprised.
Copenhagen Watch If you believe that Copenhagen's climate talks are about just limiting carbon (see Chinese moves to unveil carbon credits before the meetings there), you're missing the point: The real agenda is getting together to push along the global tax agenda that sets the stage for world government. Costs money to run the world - and you'd need a bogeyman to scare everyone into laying down their autonomy and climate change was going to be it - till the first of the whistleblowers popped the bubble with the hack last week with Climmategate. Pricks' bubble pricked. --- The good news is that now that Climategate has exposed the academic conspiracy to use junk science to stampede people into climate nonsense (see: "Hiding evidence of Global Cooling") I figure it's time for me to come out with my own carbon sequestration plan.
It's real simple: Do away with carbonated beverages. Ends the deliberate creation of carbon dioxide, may encourage people to drink more lapsang souchong (smoked tea), and get unhooked from sugars and artificial sweeteners. Reduces the number of ADHD kids, sugar blues goes away, and maybe some of the pill poppers population that walk among us can get straightened out.
I know, dream on... --- If he wasn't reading GQ and planning appearance on Obamavision, it'd be stylish methinks to have the president pull out of Copenhagen. In a sense, it's like going to a fire prevention meeting after the house has burned down. I suppose that folks who are heavily invested in this persuasion group, or that, have a hard time making quick changes to their paradigm, but the least his O'ness could do is walk there instead of the huge carbon footprint such a conference will generate. I mean, am I the only guy who understands what streaming media is about?
But hey! Why buy a $49 web cam when you can spend a gazillion dollars and stay in fancy hotels with the entourage...what was I thinking?
Oh...how silly of me: I keep forgetting this is all theater to keep the sheep asleep...not about really getting the job done. I beg your forgiveness.
Falling Ad Sales Online ads are down 5.4% in the third quarter compared with year ago - which makes sense and kinda tracks the real unit volume declines we're hearing about from many sectors. I know, it's easy to get confused these days: That's because the MainStreamMedia gets all knotted knickers about "Retail sales are up!". Well, yes, and no. The dollar volume is up maybe a few percent, but always look at unit volumes. When unit volumes are down 18% and you're in a 20% monetary inflation, you can show a 2% increase in 'dollar volumes' but the real story is the unit volumes coming down. But you knew this, of course...
Manic Friday The price of gold is down this morning - no doubt driven my the major declines in European trading. When I looked, prices in the UK, and Germany were down about 1.5%. France is out to lunch.
The back of the envelope says that should move gold down to the $1,177 kind of area very shortly and when the US markets open tomorrow - barring a big bounce in Europe overnight, the US can look forward to a pretty good-sized decline on Friday...hundred points down or more, maybe.
Retailers are all braced for Black Friday - the day of the year many depend on to get their P&L's 'into the black' but seems Wall Street's gonna fade that.
After the close tomorrow, we may - or may not - see more FDIC orchestrated bank reorganizations; FDIC's basically broke for a second time. But that's all OK since we'll just print up more money as needed. You weren't really wondering why gold was going up, were you? --- A fair number of readers are still sending me that email circulating on the net about supposed plans for a bank holiday in January. After talking with my consigliore, who in turn has been looking at his timing model of how this Depression ought to work out, I'm afraid it's much too early for that. We're figuring late summer, early fall, of next year before there's a wide enough public recognition that our economy has slipped over the brink far enough to develop the necessary political consensus that a massive devaluation/halving of the buck would make sense.
But be patient - have another helping at the Turkey Day table and relax. Sure, the world's going to hell in a hand basket, but at ox cart speed.
Oh - and don't be so quick to repeat the 'tryptophan in the turkey' is what makes us sleep between bouts of excess consumption. The fact is that turkey's not so much to blame as probably the mass carbo-loading that goes along with it.
Sleep tight.
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Coping: A Retraction and Apology I've made a few remarks lately that America is a land of sheep led by a bunch of bozos. I'm ashamed to report that I've offended bozos by smearing their good name as this email points out and I offer an apology and retraction:
Please accept my most sincere and heart-felt apology. I'll strike from here forward my use of the term 'clowns' and 'bozos'.
I seek your further professional guidance on whether the term slap-stick government would be an acceptable compromise. I believe it captures the essence of current affairs without being pejorative.
Lingo Lango Oh...of interest to the predictive linguistic pumpkin pie chew-crew at HalfPastHuman: I apologize for not being as up to date on slang as the rest of the team. It was just this morning I learnt what a turkey bark is. --- Now, where did I put my 'day off'? I know it's around here somewhere... Wednesday November 25, 2009 Consumable, Durable, Confusable Several acerbic emails arrived in the past day where people took me to task for my often-repeated notion that hyperinflation would be a more probable outcome than deflation as a conclusion to the present economic ailments. The price of gold hitting new highs ($1,181.10 by Kitco) should be enough of a hint, but in case that doesn't make sense, then you have to consider what has been happening with the stock market as a coincident indicator.
But let's forget all that because I know it's early and the coffee may not have sunk in, yet. Instead, we can have a discussion about how inflation works at the international level where in case you missed it, the dollar has been seriously slumping of late.
When the US dollar's purchasing power goes down (falling value) it takes more of them to buy something denominated in a more solid currency. This means that goods bought from overseas cost more money in nominal dollar terms. When the dollar loses 25% of it's value relative to another currency, it means 33% more dollars will be needed to fund overseas trade in general.
Maybe even this is too complicated. So we go back to traditional roll-playing: You're dying of thirst and you walk out of the desert. I have one bottle of ice water that can save your life (assuming you don't drink it too fast, yada, yada). I also know that you have a $10 bill. So guess what the price of ice water goes to?
Under different circumstances, you wander out of the desert again dying of thirst - but this time with a $100 bill - and guess what happens to the price of ice water? I'm an exploitive capitalist, you're the choiceless consumer in the new command economy and at some point, I will have the money and will pay you with a bit of it to get you to do more for me than I have done for you. After you're done with the ice water, I will dribble out a little bit of money to get you to work for food, wash my Porsche, and then to complete the swindle, I will make you pay with credit and charge you...oh...30% interest of the loan such that I always own your butt and you're always paying. Cool business model, huh?
So what if it sounds a little immoral, unethical, tyrannical, coercive, abusive? Sticks and stones can break my bones but I own the real-world economy, so sorry about that. Heads I win, tails I win and once I got the first ($10/$100) worth of money front you and controlled the print of additional money, it's all simple as pie.
Don't mean to be harsh here, but the bankster/government coalition is distinctly not about freedom. It's ALL about control, power, and a list of other ego-enhancing traits (conspicuous consumption, elitism and so forth) and owning others. And always has been.
In yesterday's column I shared some Jeffersonian comments only to find that old TJ wasn't quite perfect as pointed out by a forward-thinking, backward-looking strategic thinking college dude:
Damn, I hate when the facts interfere with the memes, but yes, as with all elites, those of the Jeffersonian stripe were just as duplicitous, self-righteous, and morally inconsistent as the current cast of characters/clowns/bozos inside the Beltway today. Not that his love of Liberty was wrong; he just didn't see himself as an exploiter of other humans - they never do. --- It's against this background that we delve into a couple of economic realities: The Personal Consumption and Expenditure report deserves a mention in passing, because the report makes some interesting claims about the personal savings rate which opens a huge can of worms about how housing is treated.
The nubbins of the problem is that in a period when housing prices were going up quickly, the government statistical types were trying to figure out how much of the gain (or here lately the loss, but we'll get to that in a second) from marketplace gains in housing should be captured in CPI calculations (which spill into PCE figuring's). A 2005 BLS paper sums it up this way:
So just going into this morning's PCE report we've already got this structural problem: If the gain on a home is not figured fully in CPI, then logic leads us to wonder if losses, too, in housing are somehow not figuring fully into PCE. Not that this isn't 'correct'...just with all the homes piled up for sale (maybe 10-years worth depending on how you count it) this CPI & PCE calculation becomes worthy of some deep thinking.
Then again, there are a whole host of revisions that were cranked in to the PCE figures in August of this year:
Try as I did, I couldn't find any explanation for the upward revision in personal savings - I mean it seems ludicrous that with home prices cratering in 2008, employment soaring, and all the rest of the lifestyle decline that continues today why the key personal savings rate should be positive rather than negative. Or, a little more simply, the Dow goes from a 2007 close of 13,264 to a 2008 close of 8,776, home prices drop what, 5-10%? And still, the personal savings rate goes up.
To be sure, the savings rate is the speed with which money is (hypothetically) put into savings vehicles with some huge asterisks around how home equity is treated; it's not supposed to reflect the actual amount of dough anyway actually has in their personal savings. In other words, the market could collapse, home prices could go to zero, yet some number of people would (I guess...) keep pouring money into their 401(k)'s like there's no tomorrow - problem which I hope is still 1,120 days out.
I apologize for getting off into the weeds in this discussion, but sometimes it helps me to put the PCE report into perspective a bit to remember this is about the alleged rate of things like savings, not the net amount saved. So with all this: Got'cher nitro pill ready?
Our second statistical course involves the Durable Goods Orders, also served up fresh today:
If you're looking for long discourse here, forget it. Life's too short - besides, the numbers that I watch are the West Coast port container counts which seem to be a better indicator of general economic health than most anything else...except the price of the precious metals, of course.
Weekly unemployment claims improved a lot - although whether this is a real gain, or just no one left to fire could be debated:
While the market is snorting statistical lines, as it were....things are expected to pop up nicely at the open. Figure a hundred plus. We oughta get over my 10,500 target short term.
One number due out after the open of trading today is the new home sales numbers which will be available at this link when updated around 10 AM Eastern. I plan to be back in bed napping by then so as to rest up for tomorrow's one-on-one with the turkey and fixin's. --- My preference in turkey is Butterball, not the democorps who are trying to put a 0.25% tax on sale or purchase of financial instruments, but a turkey's a turkey, I guess when we live in a country trying to spend its way to prosperity.
Why It's Glittering A note from my commodity guy JB to Jim Sinclair is of note: Seems the amount of gold and silver futures that are being 'rolled forward' is dropping - which if I read this right infers that a lot of big players are gong to be taking deliveries in early December which should do what to the price in coming months? (You napping on this one?)
Since the global commodities market will be open on T-Day, JB will be working. Between bites you can call him at 1-866-443-0868. I'd call, but with any luck my mouth will be full...
Stories about how problems with storage are cropping up are of note.
Follow The Money What's this? Iran realizes a $5-billion gain by shifting to the euro? Quick...make plans to bomb them. We can't afford to have ranks broken.
Metal to the Pedal Toyota is planning to replace 3.8 million gas pedals to fix a nasty stuck accelerator problem.
Blame Game I see how the Brits are blaming the Us for the drop in support for the war in Afghanistan. Couldn't have anything to do with 8-years into it, could it?
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Coping: Thanksgiving Conversation The arrival of one of Elaine's boys and his soon-to-be-Mrs. for Turkey Day went off without a hitch. Elaine picked up the kids (anyone under 40 is a kid here lately, but I'm thinking about moving that up to 50 very shortly) while I schlepped the last of the remodeling tools, equipment, paint, plumbing parts, carpet scraps, caulking guns, and such safety into out of sight piles.
I'd like to take a second or two to wish you - and yours - a very happy Thanksgiving Day and let us hope that things will be better next year. But seems the odds of the Easter Bunny showing up are as good - or better. --- Conversation around the dinner table is something I always enjoy...I was lucky enough to grow up in a family. People ate together every day and that was that. Didn't take a state occasion - just that's how things worked. You were either there for dinner, or you did without or with cold leftovers. --- I think we lost something as a nation when women went to work and family dinners went to hell - especially since it was once possible for a single head of household to earn a living while the wife was able to stay home and do the vastly more important work of raising kids, cooking to save money, and generally be a stabilizing force.
To be sure, I'm all for the women's right's movement and women's rights, but somehow I find myself wondering if it wasn't little more than a fraudulent corporate 'get-to-work' program designed to fatten corporate revenues streams, and more importantly further segment the US marketplace and boost consumption - doubling car sales, for example. A few baubles and trinkets, a few marches and magazine article was all it took to convince America that buying things was more important than family. There went the nuclear family and here came the corporate yoke. Women are now obliged to labor since the system has become so double-income oriented and prices reflect it. Corporate Tricksters: 1 Humans: 0 --- Families actually got by (one upon a time in America) with one car, one TV, no cell phones, and the family ate dinner together in a setting where no one had secrets and everything was open for detailed discussion. The 'final word' on whatever topic was offered by Mom, or Dad, depending on topic - and that's how values were passed down.
Bit by bit, that's been stolen. First, the TV on a roll-around stand slid closer to the dinner table. Then the insta-fied cooking systems beginning with TV dinners took the clock off eating time. Bit, by bit, people wandered away from the dinner table.
Of course, back then we actually had a middle class. Seems we are getting more and more stratified into upper, lower, and protected classes. The only middle getting bigger is the one the belt goes around.
It's on holidays like this that I'm reminded that America got hoodwinked starting in the early 1960's - maybe late 1950's. Materialism has gone rampant, women were suckered onto the corporate treadmill, and the net result is we are a nation where something like 40% of people have to take mind-altering drugs just to cope - and my son tells me that as many as 9% of Americans have been hooked on synthetic opiates at some point. --- The "Thoughts on the Business Life" section in Forbes Magazine has a little reminder that goes to the idea "With all your getting, get wisdom."
Failing that, we get seconds tomorrow and figure it's all gonna work out.
Increasingly, the world seems to be taking on a surreal caste: Spending our way into prosperity, eating our way to health, working harder so we can work more, conserving by consuming, and all the rest.
The turkeys to keep an eye on aren't the ones served with gravy & dressing. It's the ones wearing wool to avoid.
The Future of Cookies Our friends at www.maxa-tools.com which supplies the Maxa Cookie Manager I'm so fond of (because it removes unwanted cookies so well) sent me a link to an article that "Consent will be required for cookies in Europe."
This ought to be a fine conflict to watch develop since there's all kinds of discussion about use of cookies to track people that file-share. See: "EU's Cookie Law Should Crumble".
We'll keep you posted on this.
Honestly, despite the high tech protests, I don't see why anyone would mind giving approval for cookies - since they are essentially programs run on your computer and in some malicious cases, they track your consumer behavior and report them back to a mother-ship somewhere.
What the law might put a dent in are those non-essential third-party cookies that lots of blogging sites and smaller online retailer sites install in order to fatten up their revenue streams.
The problem with such cookies is that they eat time-slices from your processor and I've always held that if I am paying for the computer and internet connection, then I own everything that happens at my end. Takes but a few seconds to whitelist the few sites I use: Amazon, eBay, PayPal, and my banks & brokerage accounts. But, the torrent crowd is not likely to be happy about tracking cookies, since they could become an enforcement tool of copyright police.
Stuff happens.
I, Cyborg Great read in Computerworld: "Intel: Chips in brains will control computers by 2020."
Already I'm working on trademarking a new term: thinktating. A cross between thinking and dictating.
Climategate and Cats This from a reader is all too accurate:
No...but we'll pay good money and surrender the few liberties we still have left to enjoy in order to get someone else to save us from the non-issues.
Sunny Disposition Department No sunspots again today on SpaceWeather. Where the hell is Cycle 24?
Say! Maybe we could name present times the Obama Minimum?
It Was a JOKE! Several people wrote in that next year is not the Year of the Cock...
OK, it was a joke, but facts are more important than humor. At least till the second glass of bubbly tomorrow. OK, so 2008 was the year of the Rat and we had what kind of elections? That's not much of a joke, now, is it? Tuesday November 24, 2009 Technical Showdown for Markets Bradley versus Elliott! Sounds like a prize fight - and I suppose in a sense it is. But, before I ramble to far into the weeds, let's back up: Had a couple of great conversations yesterday with folks who are seeing a huge showdown for technical indicators in the works over the next couple of months. If you have anything left over to invest in this steaming lump of...oops! Any serious investor (sounds better, huh?) should be aware of the gigantic conflict.
One of my conversations was with Arch Crawford (www.crawfordperspectives.com) who notes that the Bradley Indicator had just very recently issues a buy signal and was looking for the market to extend recent gains into as late as March next year. That's not Arch's work - but his work as mentioned previously puts next July-early September on the board as some of the worst astro-econ conditions the country has seen in more than 200 years. So if you are waiting for the next brush with the financial end of the world, that's a good one to plan around: Be ready/short/or out by mid July 2010. I may go on a long-term put buying spree about then, but remember that the size of change out there is such that we ought to - a year from now - be wondering about whether the markets themselves will be meaningful trading vehicles. In other words, there's an assumption in most financial decisions that there will be active markets where gains can be cashed in and so forth. May be a faulty assumption...you following me?
On the other hand, chatting with Robin Landry, I've heard - and this is only a heard, that Bob Prechter is either at (or very near to) a sell signal in Elliott Wave terms. This being the case, although you'd need to subscribe to his services (elsewhere on this page) for specifics, it would seem to favor my personal outlook which would be for a decline down into the January (maybe February) timeframe and then a rousing rally to the August/early September period next year before this odiferous stuff hits the round rotating machine.
Another reader asks:
The answer is simple: Hyperinflation is a choice to bail out bankers - the only one that makes sense. So - put an idiot at the money-printing press, cobble up mandatory money velocity programs like health care (jail for no health care ins.) and what do you have? The Robert Mugabe School of Economics.
Oh - and $5,000 gold. Or more....
Meantime, gold up $4.50 means the Dow should rally 45 at the open - or thereabouts using the Ure Ratio.... (Dow moves approximate 10X gold price change).
Real GDP Well...as real as they're going to admit to, anyway...
Yeah, sure, right, you bet'cha...whatever. Tell it to folks under the overpasses or living in cars being repo'ed.
Upping the Bid on HealthScare I see where Joe Lieberman is digging in his heels on the Health Care bill. Old cynical George: figures it's just campaign fund raising at its most obvious. Why if Landrieu can get $300-million for her state....
ClimateGate There's now some discussion about whether the climategate story I mentioned yesterday ought to have an official investigation started to explore the systematic abuse of the scientific process. Junk science it's called. Quick! Look shocked, would'ja? --- So let me get this right: The beneficiaries of checkbook government are going to do something objective for a change? Ho, ho, ho - a seasonal knee-slapper, that one... --- More evidence of global cooling/solar minima? Go look at the number of sunspots on Space Weather: zip - nada - nicht - kaput - zilch...oh, you're a sharp one figuring this out without hints, aren't you?
Quaker 6.8 - Tonga. I can hardly wait to see the earthquake data chart from our number-crunching correspondent come the end of the month. How long since we had a day without a 5+?
Butt Covering "Iraq inquiry told of 'clear' threat from Saddam Hussein" as the Brits try to figure out what they were doing in Iraq. Happens when you don't get the big oil deals...this blame placing. Dandy sport.
Meantime, His O'ness is planning to make an Afghan surge announcement December 1st or so. --- "We're going to send the whole states of Michigan and Oregon because the threat to freedom is so grave..." Oh, maybe he won't go that far. But clearly, war building is good for hiring in the death industries and another terror attack would sure grease the skids for expanding TSA hiring and....Where'd I put my pill?
Global Anarchy Of course with the "Philippines declares state of emergency as massacre victims mount" I won't say "Told you so!" when I pointed you to Robert Kaplan's book the Coming Anarchy (short version in the Atlantic Monthly) in 1994.
You can either be serious about contingency planning now or under the bus later - your karma will decide, I reckon.
We'll know the Philippines is a goner if Art Bell moves back to the States from Manila.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: With Depression 2 Deniers The first thing that came to mind this morning was the old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times..." Such is life in markets these days with gold up again this morning and the Dow is quickly approaching that 10,500 level I mentioned a while back.
Several readers have chosen to disagree with my assessment of where the global economy is - and there's something to be seen from this exchange of emails with a reader who began his note to me "the second depression my ass":
Normally such emails land in the trash since I don't put my view out for debate. Still, every once in a while a reminder is in order, so my reply was a simple:
To which the reader offered this:
Each of these deserves a ponder. I'd first offer that there is seldom a 100% right or wrong in much of anything - the world is just too damn complex to be reduced to absolutist right/wrong terms. Short of 15,000 on the Dow (without government buying via the offshore proxy accounts), it would simply mean that the Second Depression didn't really start when American lost trillions in the Dot Com bubble bursting and then the in the Housing Collapse which was contemporary to the Employment Collapse.
Take the predictive linguistics work of HalfPastHuman (where another report is coming in three weeks if current work progresses well) off the table. Go listen to some other forecaster. I'd recommend Gerald Celente of the Trends Institute (recent 11/21 interview here). He's looking forward to as one reader calls it "Obamageddon" in the not too distance future
But, we need to be quite precise in our thinking on what's out there: When (not if) the next leg down gets going it will not be something that's the fault of just Obama; the Bush syndicate had a lot to do with this including the first trillion dollars into the banker bailout system. The rest was just follow-on as the paper-printing was necessitated by imminent collapse. We can disagree with my claim that the Second Depression began in 2001 and that 9/11 was part of a concerted effort by the powers that be to spin public attention and action away from the lack of financial responsibility in the country, but that's my read of the 'facts' as best they're available to anyone who's not a member of the club/tribe/cabal that pulls the really BIG strings.
Curiously, we don't disagree on the Geithner/Bernanke reaction. We should put on the table some of the results of this because - despite the Right/Left bloviating on point, the Obama folks have managed (so far) to paper over the inherited steaming lump of crap that the Republicorps left ticking after they bailed out their bankster buddies:
Fundamentally, what it sounds like the reader is saying is that "There can't be no Depression because the government is intervening. Yet, the government was intervening like crazy in the first Depression, which happened nonetheless. I'd propose that the Second Depression is doing just fine with (or without) government or reader admission. By reporting only those people that are currently receiving unemployment benefits, the number of unemployed is seriously under-reported and many more knowledgeable analysts than me have pegged real unemployment in the 16-22% range which is what? (Repeat after me!) Depression Levels of Unemployment. Here: Go read the 17.5% rate report from CNBC just last week.
From the Wu-Jo: Time to Read More Jefferson Where woo-woo meets rigorous thought on the dojo's mental mat: Every so often, my sparring partner Universe arranges for a little shove this way - or that - in what I should be reading. An example was yesterday I received an email with a quote from John F. Kennedy in it:
Didn't think too much about it at the time. The way my Dance/Sparring with Universe goes, if Universe wants something to happen - to nudge me along on my path, then IT will supply the necessary materials.
Presto! This morning along comes a whole email full of what? Jefferson quotes!
Not sure why Universe is sending me to Jeffersonian government school, but I presume there's something to it, or it wouldn't have shown up in such a timely manner; such is the nature of my dance partner.
Flumor Gotta love this from a male reader:
Life Without Pie A pre-Turkey must read: "Pies for Life" reminds us that a Life without Pie is Not a Life Worth Living."
Monday November 23, 2009 Manic Monday As the price of gold touched a high early this morning, I got thinking to myself "Self, remember in the predictive linguistics from HPH how this was going to be a period of building tensions with the October 25th event likely swine flu and it's now in the process of going around the world nine times. I trust you're aware that the latest mutation, which leads to a kind of hemorrhagic pneumonia-like symptom at death has been found in Norway. And as if that's not enough, Tamiflu doesn't seem to work on mutated strains according to reports floating around the net - but these are generally from MD's, so grains of salt. No, make that grains of D-3. No, make that vitamin C. No, make that nothing at all...since I don't want to be shut down by the FDA for practicing medicine without a license...This is not medical advice! --- What's called in some articles a 'slumping dollar' is more likely the cause of today's little pop in gold, at least more so than delirium brought about by flu-like symptoms which I dodged last week with my Paisano/Italian vitamins regimen, zinc, sleep, and Benadryl. (Didn't I just say this is not medical advice?)
The market should remain pretty much symptom-free over the coming week (minus Turkey Day) since there's a usual trend toward something of a rally trend in most pre-holiday rally periods, especially the one leading up to "National Call Your Broker Day" which is Friday. That's where the six remain retail brokers will get a chance to talk their clients out of buying hard assets which are inflation hedges, and talk them into holding the same material that Charmin's made of, except this has ink on it....or it's just zero's on a screen somewhere since hardly anyone but me even thinks about not trusting paper assets held in street name.
As things seem destined to work out, the current predictive linguistic data run is hinting that lots of favorable signs are ahead for gold & silver in the spring, but I'm note ruling out a decent pullback in markets on some kind of dollar rally, but whether that will be an enduring move seems like a pretty silly question. Especially with the debate on health care going and the tab for that coming in at anywhere from $0.848 to $2.5 trillion, depending on whether who's making the claims has their rabies and distemper shots current. --- Once we get around to Friday, some selling in the market would be less than surprising. Already the "Black Friday" ads are popping into my email - Friday being the day many retails are supposed to get 'into the black" for the year despite most being deep in the red.
In case you hadn't noticed, America is haunted by a few people who are overwhelmed with PCD - political correctness disease - and refuse to call is Black Friday using instead the term "Super Friday". As of this morning "black friday" was pulling in 7,564 Google news hits, while "super friday" garnered only 9 hits. I expect the ratio will change over the coming week.
Already the sharp pencil squad is working out how things will go: One report saying that 131 to 161-million people will be shopping at the rate of $250-$300 apiece. While some, like Gerry Harvey, are predicting a record Christmas, I prefer to sit back and watch. About the most expensive gift on my list this year will be my Q4 donation to IRA which will be into 5-figures. With any luck, there's be enough left over for a six-pack and TV dinners for us. --- "Why that doesn't seem right..." Well, we've been going through paper products (FeRN's) pretty quickly here lately with the bathroom remodel project which should wrap up this week. New energy efficient windows, decent-sized walk-in shower, new vanities, paint, floor, and so on. Which all has to be done today since we have guests landing tomorrow early and at the present rate, I will be segueing from tomorrow morning's column right into Mr. Ure the Plumber to finish the vanity installs.
Somewhere in all this, Elaine's supposedly baking a turkey which is way late coming out of the freezer - we might be eating Saturday - and already this morning she's on a supply run to Lowes for paint, lighting and the list goes on. Why, I haven't spent this much time in a bathroom since the flu in 1973 or that bad Mexican food I ate back in.....oh? Breakfast time is it?
Sorry...You gotta excuse my manic behavior: 32 days till Christmas and 1,124 days till 12/21/2012...what do you expect? --- The real mania is yet to come: The US has a whole flood of debt payments coming - and in order to make ends meet, more paper - with a higher notional interest rates - seems the only way out. And that kills what's already a jobless recovery and we have a hyperinflationary workout to the Second Depression in Weimar & Zimbabwe-like fashion instead of the deflationary kind the country went through from 1929 through 1940-something.
Gold's just playing its traditional role of "Purchasing Power Truth Detector" and since many of the gold suppressor groups have closed down their hedging operations, things could get really interesting over the next month or three.
Rough Politics How about living in the Philippines? 30 abducted to keep them from nominating a political rival and 21-shot dead as a result. --- Whenever a news story like this appears and seems to be an outlier, I always ask "Are they going to become civilized and do it a civilized manner with electronic voting machines and huge special interest checks like us, or are our politics going to devolve in that kind of direction?"
Searching for Dough Word that Microsoft is considering a deal with News Corp to deindex News Corp media outlet content has me wondering where such thinking will lead when logically extended. --- Sounds like some kind of revenue stream racket to me, but maybe I'm not thinking big enough: Nevertheless: Two possible outcomes to this:
Forget the other implication of this - namely that RSS feeds don't make sense if you're trying to hide content - why there could be sneaky bloggers and other news analytics sites that simply subscribe to RSS feeds and pull together content that way. I mean RSS is nothing more than real-time indexing, right? Or - maybe someone's got a plan to tariff RSS?
When Fox News takes down its RSS feed page here, things will hang together a little more logically consistent for me. But, then again, I'm a whacko...
Afghanistan Logic I'm sure you saw the headline on the BBC site that says "Morphine 'might spread cancer' since the opiates increase blood & oxygen to the cancer cells in test patients.
All of which leads me to wonder if this isn't another reason to call it a day in the Afghanistan War...the country is know for opium poppies and 10-foot high marijuana plants, but those can be done in California...
And so it's 1,2,3 what are we fighting for, again? Oops, slipped into singing Country Joe & the Fish there...Not getting it? Song from the 60's if you were just a glimmer in someone's eyes then:
The more things change, the more they stay.... Hey! Where's that "Change"? Well, if your idea of change is a tax on upper income people to pay for expanding the war, then this war's for you.
Baked Climate In Saturday's Peoplenomics report, there's a link to download the 61-MB zip of those climate change CRU (Climate Research Unit) files that out the shenanigans going on there. Says a report in the Examiner today: "The Hockey Stick was never accurate - and CRU knew it..." Les Visible's Dog Poet site has more context, or you can just blow it off since it might require real thinking about the alliance between the PTB & academics as a control the masses tool. See the wikileaks entry here.
Sure, they wouldn't do that would they? Since to read such content would tend to wake people up, the silence from the MSM on this is...how you say? Deafening. Too damn much ad money on the table to have the climate stampede interrupted.
And for crying-out-loud: Of course we need to get to Mars quickly so we can impose Cap & Trade on that planet which is having global warming without humans around. So let's ramp up that Mission to Mars talk again! Someone's gotta go dig out the stuck Rover anyway...so why not bring EPA along to certify which parts of the planet can be sold and which needs more retrofitting?
I'm got Total Recall about this stuff...
Cost of Success
Already posts are starting to pop up wondering what MS fund raising groups would do if this turns into a widespread and highly effective treatment? ---- Whenever I see situations like this, I watch closely to see how the paradigm changes...just like there are a fair number of simple cures for some diseases that don't seem to get much attention since there's a lot less money in simple cures... --- No false hopes on MS...yet...but flag this as something to watch develop. If I've got it figured right, the breakthrough will first be denounced...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Those 'Ill Winds' Although plenty of people are saying that the web bot project had a 'miss' on October 25th when the skies didn't part and the world end in a single event, even most skeptics will agree that's a pretty good marker for the renewed swine flu focus/panic. For example, this morning I'm digesting reports that the mutated swine flu may now be making its first appearance up in Ohio...not that this is confirmed, but usually the net has the general direction of events in plainer sight than shows through on MainStreamMedia. What is showing up on local media in Ohio is that the number of cases may actually be under-reported.
Not much to do but watch and see if this new strain makes multiple passes around the globe, but one thing is pretty clear - flu jitters were the event sequence that was focused around October 25th.
But the story which is so interesting to me - and I have seen little in the MSM on this - is that "A/H1N1 flu vaccine withdrawn in Canada due to high number of allergic reactions."
Reversing Roles How old am I? Some morning I wonder more than others. Like today I read that "Mexican families begin sending money to relatives in U.S". and I got to thinking back on the "good old days" when we had enough wealth in this country to be able to send it the other way.
Global Coastal Notes "Antarctic Icesheet losing mass" but as the reader who sent in the news tip says "We don't need a boat yet." I'd emphasize yet... Remember the old Bill Cosby rap "Noah, how long can you tread water?"
Power Tools Interesting note here if you like being on top of everything:
Will take it for a test spin.
Things May Be Better - Or Not... At least that's one way to look at this reader email:
Good news if you like plenty of turkey (like me...) but bad if you happen to raise turkeys and your costs aren't covered...
Mr. Ure's Schedule Soon as this morning's report is posted, I will be working on installing flooring, painting, and hooking up new vanities in the master bath. Shower doors should go in this morning, too. That will leave this afternoon around 4 PM to deal with a couple of Peoplenomics subscriber access issues.
Folks that had been using their email address as the username and password are now transitioned over to system-assigned logons in order to have less email exposure.
Elaine will be picking up her one of her boys and his fiancé tomorrow morning at 10 - while I will be trying to see desktop in my office. The best part of the Season to Be Jolly is usually that narrow gap between when it's over and when bills show up.
Market ought to open up strongly...;but holiday rallies are often worth fading.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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Seems the 'over-the-river' crowd at Langley actually hired a
professional magician to write a definitive book on the topic of
misdirection and such.
