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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday November
14,
2009 07:55 AM CST New
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This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. . Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com, Kindle (.MOBI) version here
2012: The Dangerous Convergence My report today deals with four converging data sets which could spell disaster for humans at an unimaginable level - in fact, unlike the movie 2012 and it's 'neutrinos increasing' indicator, this one is a bunch of hard data sets with potentially horrific implications - and it's all quite real. Because of it's content, this report available only to Peoplenomics.com subscribers since subscribers are the ones that keep the servers up. Also, when I post this kind of material on the free side, I typically get flooded with emails from non-subscribers and I'm not here to debate the general public. The data speaks for itself when assembled in a particular way. More For Subscribers ---- If you are NOT a Peoplenomics subscriber, subscription information is here. Subscriptions are processed on a daily batch basis around 6 PM Central Time so if you subscribe Saturday you won't get access till Saturday or Sunday evening.
If you are a current subscriber and cannot access the site because you haven't converted to the new site logon system, click here and the system will resend your logon (new credentials) tonight. The old logon system involved your email address - the system now assigns username/password pairs.
UrbanSurvival's next free update will be Monday morning - as usual. Here's what was covered earlier this week: Friday November 13, 2009 Hyper In-whating? Happy F-13/triskaidekaphobia etc. As you munch over the trade figures, down toward the end of this morning's report, remember that sometimes when a new consensus starts to appear, it will come from the 'fringe' which is where most of the action comes from. OK, so the Mogambo Guru has been yelling "Buy gold!" for a couple of years - more then - and I made the inflation-is-coming buy assets call back in 2001 (I don't like to make too many investment decisions...find them tiring).
Thoughtful piece today in the WSJ "Tight maneuvering for Bernanke" gets to the idea that the Fed doesn't really have much elbow-room in decision-making these days.
But now go read the Tyler Durden piece at ZeroHedge on how this all adds up to "Goldman on why a second stimulus is merely months away..."
About the ONLY question on the table is timing and whether the next stage of money-printing will happen before - during - or after the next round of panic, probably over quickly depreciating bundled commercial real estate debt which is about to sneak up on us in January when the Grim Reaper Does Christmas gets reported.
You really ought to start a pool at the office for both remaining coworkers... Form might look something like this:
And you sell tickets all over town - until you're busted for breaking gambling laws. When you go to court be sure to ask embarrassing questions like "Why is betting on when a market panic will occur any different than buying a stock option? Or, how about different than taxpayers betting that there's really all the gold in warehouses and Fort Knox without a complete audit of the Fed & bar analysis or betting that this will all end pleasantly?
Does 'deep storage' mean the gold has yet to be mined? Which I suppose gets us around to this in our...
So We'd Noticed Department Can't count the number of emails that I've gotten about the Rob Kirby story about gold bars being partly filled with tungsten. Here's a typical example:
Yes, this was one of those darn predictive linguistics hits I mention (way too often for some).
Starting to look like the swine flu really was the predicted 'building tensions' part of the language globally, what with the situation in Ukraine, etc. What's interesting in the amount of hate mail both Cliff and I got for that particular prediction.
As I've mentioned many times before, the linguistics often get 'scale' wrong...but for sure there was a shift of language on the expected date and if you read the October 25th Obama declaration of a national emergency related to swine flu, here, please note that the situation is placed in the same category as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane's Ike & Gustav, and the North Dakota Flooding of this year.
Interesting to note the latest figures out from the CDC show that some 22-million Americans have had swine flu now and the death toll is running about three times higher than previously estimated with 4-thousand deaths attributed to swine flu. 41.6 million doses of vaccine are available presently... CDC video here. 3-million doses of 'regular' seasonal flu vaccine have been distributed in the latest reporting week. --- One of the things bugging me about the 'flu' being 'it' in the linguistics is how this relates to the economy...but now what we're finding out is that flu spending has turned into a major discussion within Ukraine and concurrently, Ukraine's debt rating has been downgraded by Fitch to B-minus status according to a MarketWatch report.
Oh, and local press coverage in Ukraine continues to paint an ugly picture, although maybe not from pneumonia.
And it looks like WHO is taking a more aggressive stance on antiviral use early on in the flu.
Trippin' President Obama is in Japan before continuing on to meet with the Chinese. Hope he remembered knee pads for that meeting with the Chinese who could flush our economy on a whim...
Apparently their power position/cat bird seat is clear: "China's Hu prods West on trade, investment barriers". I figure it's just a warm-up for the strong arming ahead - especially since Commerce Secretary Gary Locke was just recently giving China missile technology. Don't mean to keep HAARPing on this, but the MainStreamMedia must be DDNB - deaf, dumb 'n blind - on the importance if giving China access to our hard won technology. You & I paid for it...remember?
Trade Gulf Wider The latest figures out from the Census & BEA types today shows that after declining a bit in late 2008 and into the first part of this year, the trade deficit is up again...
Not to Worry OK, so the economy has a cloud over it (which is what you'd expect in a Second Depression, right?) and yeah, so Obama is going hat-in-hand to China. What's really encouraging is the report that a number of students aged 15 and younger have been arrested for a school food fight.
See how this will solve our nations ills? Why if we can start putting enough of these pre-adults into jails, we could be off on another huge phase of economic expansion. Better yet - jail both the parents and students involved in this.
Imagine the gloriousness of it all: A perfect command economy: Everyone goes to jail, everyone gets do-overs, and no one is held accountable, but it all costs a bundle, so everyone has a job - even if just trading places every so often with their jailer. This, my friend, is the essence of economic recovery going on right now.
The only problem I've ever had with socialism is I can't figure out how to get rich following it.
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Coping: With Cocooning What is Cocooning? It's what happens to people when they lose their jobs, can't afford to go much of anywhere 'big' and living the large - the blingish thingish falls out of favor. Which - in case you were planning to install some fancy grillwork - has become decidedly uncool.
When cocooning sinks in, people start to pay attention to their homes - and apparently there are tons of people doing it, since we are presently finishing off the last unpresentable room in our every room gets fixed remodeling project and we can't find anyone to install a bathroom floor for at least a week and a half. Normally, this would be a "Dammit..." and just schedule and run with it. But, since we have house guests landing on the 22nd, fourteen days from now would be the 27th and Elaine mutters something about needing a day or two to do 'finishing touches' before company arrives.
The 'last room' happens to be a bathroom and the repair is from a slow water leak under one of the two vanities in the room - and since the home was made with OSB (oriented strand board) flooring over the joists, yours truly got to experience the joys of ripping out a 4' by 5' section of floor and replacing it. In some houses, this would not be a terrible and grueling task, but in our house, it involved not only ripping out the floor, putting in runners and cross bracing (can't have flooring meet in mid-air) and the normal stuff, but going down into the crawlspace under the house to pick up leftover chunks of OSB. This was followed by man-handling the 4X8 sheets of OSB that went in...had to use two sheets of OSB that were 7/16th's since no one seems to have 7/8th's OSB anymore...but I digress.
For taking glue off floor joists, can't think of a better tool than my Rockwell Sonicrafter. Darn fine tool for that kind of project. (Christmas is coming...)
Elaine had the good sense to go $hopping for flooring and lighting, so when she got back I was really ready for some humor - a hot shower and a cold beverage go only so far when you've been under a house and schlepping OSB...
"I heard the most amazing thing on the radio on the way home....there's some serve advertising that there's a site on the internet that will do break ups for you...."
"You mean like 'sick of remodeling...you're fired...kind of thing?"
"No...like tell a boyfriend or girlfriend you're history....tell a spouse you're getting a divorce from them...that kind of thing..." --- No, we still get along fine, but it got me to thinking about what shows through in people's character when times get tough. In the consulting arena, I'm at the slow time of the year, so while working on a couple of projects, time's also loose enough to be able to spend quality time with my Skil saw which despite all the complaining, I really enjoy. I've always found that when things slow in one area of life, there's always lots to do in other areas.
But as a business model I wondered what it meant - if anything - when a society starts to farm out basics of getting along with other people...just struck us both as odd that there's a business model for this type of misery. Maybe the internet really has gotten us to the point where everything can be monetized... If you've used such a service, let me know? Curious what the costs are and whether it's a viable business. - Thanks.
Oh...and if you know a flooring installed in the Athens- Tyler - Palestine area that's not booked out solid (and does first-rate work) send me an email.
BBQ Weekend A couple of calendar items here....Yes! Tomorrow is the Elmwood Volunteer Fire Department's fall BBQ. More on the department web site... I plan to skip breakfast tomorrow to be extra hungry for lunch. If you're in Dallas or Houston - for that matter, anywhere within driving distance - ya'll come on by...
Last Day Note This is the last day you can sign up for EMWD web hosting and get the discount I mentioned earlier this week. Click here to check prices & sign up. Discount codes are: B-DAY01 - to receive 40% off a new domain name B-DAY02 - to receive 40% off any of our hosting packages except our mailman service. Ghosts in Machines Our inquiry into the source of the mystery code-like noises in Alabama continues. A fresh case to ponder this morning:
This one is too easy! Get the manual out for the DTV receiver and see if you have it plugged into a phone line. Bet me that as part of the "call home feature" to bill you for all those PPV movies, the sat. receiver has caller ID outputted to whatever is on-screen at the time.
Your cell phone service is presently set to 'dual ring' I expect, so you can pick it up free on the landline if you're home ...er...watching TV...
The number of emails on topic this week gets me to wondering if there's a niche for this kind of service on the internet...you know - pay $5 to ask the home electronics guru a question. Just thinking out loud. Say, your TV doesn't break up much, does it? (Just kidding...)
Cookie Crunching Maxa Cookie Manager - MCM has now deleted 53,513 cookies from my computer - and of these 1,439 were in the web bug category. Typical comments:
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it? Latest factory version here: Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
Looking Ahead I decided that Saturday Morning's report - when I do them - will be posted for Peoplenomics.com subscribers only.
Peoplenomics on Sunday is "Woo-Woo as a Business Model".
Drop by Monday - next week we get PPI, CPI and EIEIO...
--- Send your comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week The Single Person's Marketing Plan Common economic wisdom is that a home is the most important investment most folks make, but I respectfully disagree. I'd suggest it's the partner you choose to put in the home that is really the biggest investment you make in Life since you can lose money faster than any market in history through the mechanism of divorce. Half to 65% net worth - or more- can disappear in an instant. And you thought stocks in the 'pink sheets' were risky? See this divorce rate chart. A number of subscribers who are single have asked for advice, so I thought it might be useful to apply some basic marketing principles to finding a significant other. This may seem a little irreverent here - and to be sure the line between sociopath and social butterfly is a thin one - but it won't be the first time one of these in-depth reports has stepped over a line or two. Such is the danger of inquiry. More For Subscribers Subscription Information
"Live on $10,000" A Year With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On The business model of this website is base Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course.... ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Thursday November 12, 2009 As Goes Zimbabwe... There's a fine article to start things off today over at the Kitco web site by Alf Field. It tells the tale of what happens when a currency dies as it did earlier this year in Zimbabwe.
I mention this as a reminder that the USA is on a similar track - toward death of the dollar - although Zimbabwe got there first. Our own progress has been a little slow, but not for a lack of effort on the part of the left-right-money alliance in Washington. The ruling Troika (and the Russian word is becoming more and more apropos) has been moving us right along the nonlinear path toward hyperinflation ever since the bankers seized the nation's monetary controls in 1913.
By 1929, the not-really-federal reserve had stolen away 42.1% of the dollar's purchasing power. By 1950, that amount had swelled to where 58.9% of the dollars purchasing power had been stolen. Even more importantly, thanks to Keynesian doubletalk, the American public had the "Big Lie" about inflation deeply seated in both textbooks and popular media.
The Big Lie is that prices go up. They don't. The purchasing power of your dollars goes DOWN.
By 1975, the dilution of purchasing power had sucked 81.6% of the dollar's purchasing power away - meaning that something which cost $1 in 1913 when the banksters took over (along with their free lunch/deficit spending pals in congress) was up to $5.43.
Then things got worse.
By 2000 the dollar's purchasing power was diluted 94.25% from where it started in 1913. What had cost a single dollar then was up to $17.39.
This morning, if we assume 5% inflation for 2009 year-to-date, what cost a single dollar in 1913 is up to $22.61. The dollar is buying 4.42% of what it did in 1913, or more clearly its purchasing power has dropped 95.57%
It doesn't take a financial genius to figure out that what's happening to the US dollar's purchasing power is along the same lines as Zimbabwe's only slower - at least for a little while. But over time there's no way of getting around it: We're going down the same road led by compounding interest the whole way.
The major task of governments is to keep as many people buying into the idea that paper money is a 'solid' thing. It is...and it isn't.
John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics wrote a most excellent piece back in 2008 - a "Hyperinflation Special Report" in which he forecast a "Hyperinflationary Depression remains likely as early as 2010."
Williams calculations of the dollar depreciation, by the way is even more grim than mine. The way he figures it, the decline in purchasing power has been such that since December 1913 through August of this year, fully 96% of the dollar's purchasing power has gone toes up and what cost a single dollar in 1913 is up to $25.18. --- Obviously, this can't go on forever. The only reason that China has played nicey-nicey is that the U.S. has been bribing China with things like missile technology. You probably missed a couple of weeks back when I reported that Commerce Secretary Gary Locke was in China with quietly issued Obama permission to hand over more missile technology? Not that Obama's the first mind you; the Bushies were in the same boat. Such is the power of blackmail.
That gets us to an old saying: "You can never pay off a blackmailer." THE most important story of this week was carried Wednesday when bond traders were sleeping in: "China central changes wording on Yuan policy". We must be running out of trading stock, huh?
Next week, president Obama heads to China for his first visit there. I'm expecting that China will essentially hand him a shopping list of demands and Obama like Clint6on and Bush before him, will put on his best repartee.
But the bottom line, behind all the hoopla is that the US dollar seems heading in the same direction as Zimbabwe's old 100-trillion Z dollar notes.
It might take a while longer, but as you watch the price of gold making new highs, remember that gold's not going up. What you're seeing is the dollar coming down.
Can the dollar rally for a while? Sure - but the rally I was expecting to start around October 26th was a lot weaker than I expected - although maybe the little rally going on this morning will turn into something. But regardless of the short term, longer term compound interest wins and inflation is the systemic bias. --- Word that Barrick has shut its gold hedge book 'as world gold supply runs out' should be a hint. But here's the thing: It's not entirely run out yet.
I was talking to one of Elaine's boys yesterday (electrician up in the Telluride/Delta area of Colorado) and he mentioned in passing that the big gold mine up that way is still closed. When that reopens, then I'll start to take the "gold runs out' stories more seriously. Expect it will reopen when economics of production improve.
Jobs Numbers From the Labor folks:
A green shoot or no one left to fire? We report, you something or other...
Keep an Eye on Ukraine Although there have been a lot of reports that the outbreak of 'whatever' in Ukraine is something other than swine flu and a lot of panic, the stories from the mainstream have - at least until this morning - pretty much closed off that possibility. But, a careful read this morning is starting to open a few doors to new possibilities.
Take for example this Reuter's story under the headline "Ukraine PM accuses Yushchenko over H1N1 swine flu". All of which sounds just swine until you get to looking at the cited numbers.
Now, I'm not saying for sure that something else/big is going on here, but by my arithmetic, that would leave 171 dead people to be explained. --- In a strange way, this whole flu thing is filling out the linguistics for this period - the 'ill winds' aspect of things, the economic impacts, and the fact that it's not US-centric - it's really out in GlobalPop. The declaration by the Obama administration (October 25th) was bang on time-wise, and since then we've seen building tensions globally although not so much noticed by the MSM.
Wouldn't be the first time the linguistics have painted a more dire picture of events in advance that actually come to pass, nor will is likely be the last since another report is in the offing for mid-Decembers tentatively.
Whether pandemic 'flu'/hemorrhagic whatever is "IT", or whether we'll finally get around to seeing an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities should become clear over the next week, or so. Since Ukraine is already under martial law, a generalized spread of hemorrhagic whatever popping up in other countries, which could bring serious restriction on air travel, particularly of the intercontinental sort, is something worth at least keeping an eye on in terms of future developments. --- Iran, meantime, was the ONLY item on the agenda as the prime minister and president of Israel met in Washington with president Obama Monday.
O Poll A reader sends this:
Yeah, the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll show only 30% strongly agree that president Obama's doing a good job. Guess the rest of us are waiting for change. --- The notion that Obama's presidency would somehow improve race relations may be illusion as a bar fight in New York seems to underscore.
Dobbs Moves On I've watched Lou Dobbs history ever since his stint at KING-TV in Seattle where I was newsing at the same time (Seattle, not KING). Part of me is sorry to see him leave CNN - where he was usually on the same side of issues (e.g. the reasonable/rational side) as I tend toward.
The other part of me is hopeful that Dobbs will get serious about making some real change happen in this country; the change we were promised by the democorps has been long on wind and short on delivery. Could Dobbs be the one that takes a run at high office and actually makes it? We should be so lucky.
Workers Paradise Well, not prexactly: Cuba is going through huge energy cuts due to a failing economy. You'd think the country's leadership would have learned a thing or two, but in case they need a reminder here it is: Communism Failed in the Soviet Union...so why would Cuba be any different?
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Coping: With Strange Radio Sounds Yet another reader has chimed in on our discussion of strange noises (other than cell phones) coming out of radio speakers:
Then there was this:
Meantime, our reader in Alabama with the 'mystery code' has a recorder ready for next time it shows up - and no, it was NOT a cell phone. Reader happens to be quite computer savvy and ruled that one out right away. We continue tracking this...
Sarbanes and Servers The other day I was just thinking out loud that not keeping server logs would be an easy way to prevent too much collection of people's ID & IP info. Got a couple of very good replies including this:
Upshot of it seems to be that private entities could just not keep server logs - and thus - nothing to produce if subpoenaed. I know, too simple, LOL.
Brazil Is Not Alone ...when it comes to power outages, says a reader in Ecuador:
Mr. Science has a different idea: You only think it's longevity because the clocks weren't running much of the time....it's always later than we think...just sayin'...
Reset Jitterz Several readers have asked me if there is a Big Worry in all the mortgage resets coming next year after reading the headline "US foreclosure filings surpass 300,000 for 8th straight month."
Although I am a management geek by trade, not an economist, I have nevertheless mastered the fine art of talking out of both sides of my mouth; to wit:
No, there's nothing to worry about because most of the rates will reset to at - and in a good number of cases actually lower than where they are now.
Yes, because no one will have a job.
There: See see how much clarity that brought to your life?
A Proud Fathering Note Every so often someone sends me an email demanding I 'put more good news in your column'...so when my son did a ride-along with Medic One up in Seattle yesterday as part of his EMT recert, I thought it would be interesting for him to write something up on it - you know, some of the hints that our medically focused readers might find useful.
But after saying - in so many words - that Medic One has already been written up in all kinds of places and just keeps getting better all the time, he shared this:
I wrote him back to told him he was a genius - and one with focus at that - and that a thoughtful note from son to father like this makes me proud as hell. (don't think he'll mind me sharing it)
"What about the lily pads?" you're wondering..."What's that part about?"
Ah! The lily pad theory is one I don't think I've shared before but it goes something like this: If you envision a possible future...and can get a really clear vision of it, then it's only a simple matter of working backwards to figure out the steps to get there.
Just like a frog sitting on a log in the middle of a pond: He sees his objective is getting to shore where the bug hunting might be better. From the moment he sets his little froggy-sized brain on "get to shore", something almost automatically happens when it comes to the jumping. Without too much thought to the matter, he simply picks out the best set of lily pads to land on to get him to his objective.
Like my 'recipe system of learning' - which empowers me (and you, too) to do anything by simply finding the 'recipe' for it - so too, the "lily pads to the desired future" concept should be incredibly obvious.
But it's not. All too often it's so much 'taken for granted' that it's not stated and that's how a lot of plain common sense gets lost between the generations. The simple stories, and information framing concepts are the keys and few people spend much time figuring out 'how they frame' things in their heads. Get the framing tools right and the world changes - to the good.
As my son is learning, once you empower yourself to learn and do anything and once you get the lily pad approach to the future worked out, then you can become a powerful agent for change in the direction of your personal vision of the future. Oh, and you also wake up a bit more.
Wednesday November 11, 2009 Call It A Half Day If you're just waking up this morning - and it's the usual time, too bad for you that you don't have one of those GS-whatever levels jobs in the federal government since this is Veterans Day and a holiday for many government types besides federal.
The good news about the mail is bills won't be coming. The bad news about the mail is that if yoiu leave it in your box to be picked up - after scraping together a house or car payment, that won't be picked up today. Oh - and I guess that "You may have won!" notice from Publisher's Clearinghouse won't be arriving today, either, come to study on it.
In most states - we'll pick Missouri for our example of the day since I haven't picked on the square staters for a while - things like state offices are closed, too. Schools, on the other hand, will be open - or not - depending on district.
Doesn't hardly seem fair to me that the bond traders will get the day off, but the logic is that if the feds are getting a day off - which includes Treasury - then why go to work? And then - because there's no one to pass troubled assets off to, the banks (for the most part) will be closed.
Probably the highlight of the day is that we'll see banks closed by something other than the FDIC today...trying to put a positive spin on things.
Gold traders have distinctly not taken the day off with gold up more than $10 earlier - which applying the 'Ure ratio' suggests that that a Dow rally of a hundred points, or so, may be in the works. Why, with the feds off (in a manner of speaking ;-)) ) who's going to throw cold water on euphoria?
A couple of major insights usually come from Veteran's Day. First is that I've always held that if you give someone a day off to 'observe' something, then they ought to be honor (if not legally) bound to do some observing. I don't mind the bond traders and bankers that get the day off, but it they aren't laying flowers on graves, showing up at a parade, or in some other way honoring those who have paid freedom's highest price, the WTF are they getting the day off for?
By the same token, I reckon that if folks get Martin Luther King day off, of President's Day, or Labor Day, they should actually observe and honor. Not that I'm against taking time off, but just pick one, how much honoring of the labor movement actually gets done on Labor Day? Labor Day has always been more than a little suspect since it originated in Canada, a country known for shameless torpedoing of a single national language. Other than the NHL players, timber, and time off, well....we shouldn't go there. My older sister lives in Canada and she's managed to retire while I haven't so maybe Canada isn't so bad.
Two other notes on this "half day": If you like to gamble (and if you have a 401(k) you're gambling, whether you'll own up to it, or not) this is a fine day to play parking meter roulette. You drive to a city with parking meters, don't feed the meter, and see if you get a ticket. If you're a winner - no ticket. If you're a loser, you ought to learn to read meter labels.
The final point to be made about this 'half day' is to notice how smoothly everything runs. Most of government shuts down and the working people that are really where the 'rubber meets the road' (fire, police, air traffic, paramedics, etc.) still get their jobs done. But there's less - you know - overhead. All of which gets me to thinking we could cut the cost of government in half my reducing its hours to three days a week, so the rest of us could get stuff done.
Maybe when backs of envelopes were used for bond figuring bond trading took time. But with point & shoot spreadsheets? And federal offices? How about we make a little side bet they can overspend as much in three days as five?
Not So Free Speech? There's a very interesting story developing about a federal grand jury which is apparently trying to compel a web site (www.indymedia.us) to produce all kinds of records about people that visit its web site on one particular day in 2008. Apparently the request was withdrawn, but that leaves a very interesting question about what was the DOJ looking for?
The Electronic Frontier Foundation has been watching the development of something called ACTA - the anti-counterfeiting trade agreement, which its web site suggests is a "Secret Global Deal Targets Internet".
One has to wonder if the web site was being targeted over some copyright issue, or whether the DOJ (this was during the Bush era, BTW) was simply trying to do 'intelligence' gathering on what the unbrainwashed folks were up to. We may never know.
But if you get some time, read "From EFF's Secret Files: Anatomy of a Bogus Subpoena." --- There' s a simple answer to this kind of government intrusion - I think: Seems like the 'fishing' is based on the existence of 'log files' which are generated by operating systems.
You didn't hear this from me, but I am not aware of any legal requirement to maintain server logs. Could be ignorance on my part, I'll let you know what I hear back.
The problem with not keeping server logs is this: A lot of the internet traffic ranking system is built around server logs. Ranking services routinely send out spiders that sample logs and come up with traffic reports. Without those logs, how would traffic be counted? And no telling how much of what goes on over the internet is sniffed out by phone company tie-ups with big phone companies, but that's another discussion for a different day.
This whole area continues to hold my attention, however, since it was in the middle of the first Depression that government seized control for itself over the airwaves via the Communications Act - and no reason to expect any other channels of communication that happen along wouldn't be seized in this one. America's a 'free country' but only just so free, don'tcha know.
If you think America is really free - try speeding sometime. The yoke is there, whether folks care to see it or not.
Speaking of Yokes A lot of talk has been surfacing around this whole 'jail time for failure to have health insurance' boondoggle that's up for a bloody fight in the senate shortly. What's bothering me is that president Obama is widely quoted as saying “penalties are appropriate for people who try to free ride the system and force others to pay for their health insurance."
I have to respectfully disagree here: If someone is not able to afford healthcare, rather than throw them in jail, the administration ought to work on positive reinforcement rather than the jackboots approach: Get folks jobs that come with health insurance.
Or, is that a little too simple? Criminees sakes: Next we'll have healthcare police.
Power Problems The "Light return following Brazilian blackout" is an interesting story to read because it serves as a kind of grim reminder that life without electricity can get pretty dicey pretty quickly. Making coffee, just for instance... I trust you've got a camp stove an a percolator, yeah?
Wide Ranging Pirates Something about the report that "Pirates seize Greek vessel off Seychelles" didn't sound right, so I hauled out the maps this morning.
The report says the vessel was seize 607 miles (513 nautical) north of the island group. That would imply that the pirates if based in Somalia or Ethiopia were ranging almost 800 miles out. A half-circle on that kind of range is 800,000 square miles of ocean to patrol and that's some kind of ocean space.
Signature Litter Have to love the headline on CNN: "Golf balls: 'Humanity's signature litter."
Maybe. But I'd offer that paper money is the signature litter: It don't seem to last more than 80-years, or so, at a stretch without being retooled would be my candidate. The whole notion of usury and depreciating value is at the core of planned obsolescence and in turn low quality goods that swell landfills to overflowing. And through inflation, people are robbed of their savings which in turn fills to pockets of the owners of the means of production.
If you want to be rich: Make junk and sells lots of it. Over and over again.
Humans have been really slow - to verging on dumb - figuring out that if we were focused on quality as a species, we'd all more time to pursue self-improvement and self-discovery.
Or, maybe that's really the plan: To prevent just that?
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Coping: Bummer Movies Getting on down the road toward 2012 seems to be concurrent with a rise in movies that could be a serious bummer for those folks that just want to get along with life. The NY Times site has a trailer for the new movie Collapse, for example.
then on Friday we get the answer to the question "Who will survive 2012" The answer - if you haven't already guessed - is not many. That is, if the 2012'ers are right.
The problem is that even if the 2012'ers are not right, there is still the whole problem which "Collapse" brings up - and it's a nasty one: All it takes is a major spike in oil prices/shortfall in supplies due to whatever and the 'civilized world' (whatever that is) could just simply begin to fall apart.
Seems like a fine time to be working on the fine art of detachment: Not getting too involved (if at all) in the left-right political game. Focusing instead on food, shelter, and being away from crowds. Pay the taxes, drive within the speed limit, and generally maintain a low profile. At some level there's a real threat that global system collapse will show up despite best efforts of a power & control structure to work it for their own ends, the simple strategy now in play is 'get through it.'
So over the next couple of weeks I've got these two movies on my "must see" list. But will either change my personal plans? Unlikely. If - after seeing both and doing some reading about 2012 and independently researching - you choose to make changes in your lifestyle and personal plans I reckon that would be a good thing.
My simple guiding principle of life is don't try too hard to win...but try really hard not to lose.
Swirlies Do crop circles hold information way beyond our present level of knowledge? Like schematics on how to building machines? You gotta see this video. --- Just to keep up, read the story "Vatican looks to heavens for signs of alien life." This from the folks who locked up Galileo?
Morse Code - Oh Doh! Yesterday's report on electronic interference had a huge hole in it: Forgot about cells phones since I swore off the damn things as 'electronic dog leashes.
Yeah...damn silly oversight on my part: Yes cell phones talk to cell towers so they know which cell they should be listening to...and even if you're not actively using the phone they will 'ping' so the cell system knows if you are still in ring range - otherwise they shunt off to voicemail and such. Will let you know what I hear back from the reader in 'Bama. Web Hosting Deals On Birthday deal at emwd.com is on today...Click here to check prices & sign up. Discount codes are: B-DAY01 - to receive 40% off a new domain name B-DAY02 - to receive 40% off any of our hosting packages except our mailman service. Yo Bo! I mentioned yesterday about how the Bovespa was crazy out-performing the Dow. Seems it's not the hemline/miniskirt flap says a reader from Brazil:
Monthly tax filings? You know that's not a bad idea. Makes more sense than...oh...throwing people in jail for not having insurance, huh?
Tuesday November 10, 2009 What Goes Up A Tyler Durden piece over at Zerohedge.com tipped by a reader Monday is a fine place to begin a Tuesday morning conversation about "How frigging crazy are we?"
The answer (looked surprised, OK?) is very crazy, manic, irrational, and insane - but thanks for asking. The behavior of markets is nothing more than numerical evidence of something we all know deep down inside anyway; we just don't like to talk about it.
The Durden article makes the case that we're in a market now which sees the "S&P Price Oscillator is three Standard Deviations from Mean: 99% outlier Market." Or, if the coffee hasn't sunk in yet, the market's in a 1-in-a-hundred kind of rally.
With a modest pullback in gold in the early going indicating perhaps a soft start to the Dow today, we have to start looking for my (still expected) decline back to a test of the March 2009 lows around Dow 6,627 before the one final run up till August/September of 2010 which now seems like the time when widespread recognition of the Second Depression ought to be sinking in. --- Here's one of the drivers to be watching: I was talking to one of my sources who's pretty well 'plugged-in' to the commercial real estate market. "You know George, I've got one client who is a national retailer who has just negotiated a zero rent deal because the landlords are becoming so desperate to keep big-name tenants in operation...because when anchor tenants go, the traffic count drops and the remaining stores in a strip get upside down and the owners then find their properties in a downward spiral. So what we're seeing is a lot of the anchor tenants are renegotiating great deals..."
Great, that is, if you don't own commercial real estate. And I'm not talking the BIG malls - I'm talking the smaller strip kinds of malls.
As these huge rewrites of rents start rolling in to cash flows happens in early 2010, that will probably add to the woes of commercial real estate which tends to be a lagging sector. --- The Big Picture to keep in mind here is that when you see deals like Warren Buffett buying things like railroads, there's a better-than-even-chance that he is buying because it's a 'fixed asset play' that's much more resilient than owning malls, strips, and so forth.
We kicked around "Why would he buy 100% of Burlington?" Especially since he is apparently planning to sell off his Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern rail pieces in order to own 100% of BN.
My source and came to appreciate that by taking BN 100% under the Berkshire umbrella, Buffett's outfit would not have to report its rail operations separately. Thus, because the Interstate Commerce Commission is hardly regulating much of anything (except safety issues, driver hours and such) that would give Berkshire an opportunity to play poker essentially with other players while never having to show their hand.
So once again - it's a sheer genius move by Buffett: He's buying this huge inflation hedge since the replacement cost of all the rail stock and real estate under BN tracks has to be worth probably somewhere in the trillions.
In yesterday's column I talked about my 'poor man's fixed assets' project: Machine tools for the shop here at the ranch, a tractor that's only 3-years old with only 220 hours on it, a collectable old air cooled sports car, and having no credit card debt plus enough real estate that's paid for such that as global synchronized inflation comes along, our fixed assets replacement costs ought to zoom such that my next year (summertime) we can unload a few things having gotten desired use out of them, recoup probably our purchase price and maybe then some. No, it's not a railroad, but it's a start.
Looks like Buffett's plan is in a sense the same thing, except he gets to play engineer on a big railroad and I have to be satisfied with a smooth-shifting five speed. He gets to move more zeroes around, for sure.
Probably the reason Buffett has so much more money than me is that I've wasted a lot of personal resources on projects like learning to fly airplanes, whereas Buffett had the good sense & focus to just make oodles of money and hire the plane and pilot. To each his own; Life seems like a tradeoff between focus and fun all too often. --- I suppose we could go through lots of technical discussion about why this market is overbought, but the simple part is that the turn down can come any time, or we could rally north of 10,500. Arguing against going too much higher are indicators like the report that German investor confidence is falling, and the HR department at Lloyds bank rolling grenades on 5,000 more workers.
Also making the case for 'synchronized global inflation' is the drop in the pound today as Fitch said - in some many words, that the British credit rating is more at risk than ours.
If you've played the rally since March, "Get thee to the sidelines" seems like a fair approach. Especially since we're now in 1% country as Durden's work points out. As usual, this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Think of it like...oh... financial suicide prevention comes to mind...
Got What We Came For Department Does the headline "Iraqi Cabinet approves Exxon-Shell oil deal" mean we can send fewer troops to the sandbox? --- Don't you wish? Nope: Word is Obama is sending another 40,000 troops to Afghanistan.
PM'manship The BBC News Magazine has a rather interesting article seeing as I'm such a $275 gold Gordo fan: "How does Brown's handwriting compare with other PMs" they ask.
Well, at least he can write...that's...er...reassuring.
Speaking of the BBC Journalism at its finest here: BBC has also been covering the adventures of a female college student who was kicked out of school for wearing a mini skirt. She's been readmitted to school, they report - but that's just a good starting point to a finely honed investigative journalist like...ahem.....
"You're going for a bad pun...like 'Built like a BRIC________'?" you worry.
Never anything so gauche! This is a serious (or nearly so) financial news & comment site, after all.
No, the BBC story launches us into a discussion on the application of hemline theory. You know - the one that says as go hemlines, so go markets. Hemlines going up should mean strong rally and upward movement while ankle-length attire would indicator declines or Depression.
The Dow is up something like 7% while the Bovespa is up around 75-80%. Conclusion: If our government is so damn smart...why aren't they promoting miniskirts to get the economy rolling again, huh? Look what it's doing in Brazil!
Rainy Night in Georgia No, not Brook Benton - just knowing that likely makes you a Boomer, though. Tropical storm Ida is what we're talking about.. Looking at the weather radar for Atlanta today the drought seems so long ago and far away....
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Coping: With Hearing Voices A few readers some time back mentioned that they had been hearing voices. Not some kind of disembodied far away stuff, either. These were 'just like were standing there' voices. This morning, a follow-on piece to noodle:
If you have a cassette recorder and can send along a tape, I'd be glad to interpret it - since I'm a member of FISTS - the International Morse Code Preservation Society. Honestly, I expect that when you send the tape (or copy it yourself and play back what's being sent), you'll find that it's a local longwave radio navigation system being picked up by your computer's audio system or a ham radio operator working CW (continuous wave/Morse) nearby. A lot of ham radio types have had to become very stealthy in their antenna building due to community restrictions in some parts of the country so you wouldn't necessarily notice a nearby ham.
However, hams don't use modulated carriers to do CW - so if a ham was at fault you probably would NOT hear tones.
Since you are hearing tones, I dragged out the best woo-woo tools I own and put them to work on your problem: Microsoft Streets & Trips and www.airnav.com.
Knowing that both VOR and longwave radio beacons still use modulated CW, I clicked around Madison Alabama for about 1-second before discovering that you are probably within 4 miles of the Huntsville/Madison County International Airport.
Putting in Huntsville International we find one each Carl T. Jones Field (KHSV) 4.1 miles south of Madison so we look for nearby radio navigation aids. Our suspects are the VOR stations (lower probability due to higher frequency - and that's a longer discussion of why best held for another day):
And my primary suspects would be the NDB (nondirectional beacons/longwave) at:
So the first question is: Does there seem to be a repeating pattern? If the code is there most of the time and is repeating, then odds would favor the navigation beacon. If it is once per hour, or a few times an hour, then you may have a VHF or UHF repeater located on a nearby water tower (or other high place owned by local government or a ham club) that you're picking up. I expect there would be few - if any - really high towers in Madison, since the city is 5-miles north of what looks like runways 36 (left traffic) at Huntsville Regional. Get a fair bit of jet noise out there?
That's the most likely explanation. If it was clicking instead of Morse-sounding, then things would be interesting because clicking (the old Continental code) and such was a part of the bygone days when tones were not 'copied" - it was the difference in clicks of a DC powered annunciator. Then we could have had time tunnels/time warps - magical vortex to another time - you know - the fun stuff.
Sorry, but my money's on a new repeater going up nearby for government or ham use, or you're near the Redstone beacon 5.7 miles west of the airport or up by Cole Spring NDB which would be just east 9º of due north 16.3 miles north of the airport, which would put your home 11-12 miles north of Madison? ---- See how much fun this is? Ham radio has a whole subgroup within the ham radio culture that does hidden transmitter hunts. Back in the old days we called these 'bunny hunts'.
Best-ever 'bunny hunting" story? Back in the mid 1960's up in the Seattle area we were having a 'bunny hunt" one rainy Friday night and hams from all over the Seattle area were participating. Maybe 20 in all. The "bunny" station decided to pull one of the meanest, nastiest tricks ever. The 'bunny' hid next to the railroad tracks in Edmonds, Washington and used the rails as a ground!
Since radio waves tend to follow nearly perfect grounds (and the tracks next to the water along Puget Sound are nearly perfect), every time someone got near the tracks they would think "Aha! I've got you know you wraskly wabbit!"
In fact, along about midnight we finally had to tell the people who were walking up the tracks 15-miles south of the bunny that they were a little off in their calculations. Such being the joys of hiding a transmitter down on the low frequency bands. 2-meter & VHF bunny hunts? b-o-r-i-n-g....
Say, did this morning's report just turn into a book on ham radio? Ooops....
The Real Deal on Web Hosting Once a year I'm please to pass on this from my hosting provider EMWD:
Remember this is on Thursday and Friday only, but start looking at hosting plans and such now - Click here to check prices & sign up.
So far this year, UrbanSurvival has served up almost 15-million pages with almost no glitches - a few are going to happen no matter what - that's just how the law of large numbers work. In October Urban passed 337 GB of bandwidth to just under a million visitors.
What I'm not sure of is whether those numbers should give me faith that America has that many reasonable, intelligent, and light hearted people who haven't been dumbed down completely yet, or whether it's evidence that we're in a whole heap-o-trouble. Still pondering that one.
Monday November 9, 2009 .666: You Know It's A Bad Day When... ...you wake up, it's Monday, and the US dollar is worth 0.666 of a Euro. Of course, it was only there for a few minutes, but still, it makes a thinking person wonder "What's up?" I mean besides the price of gold which was handily through the $1,100 barrier earlier this morning.
Usually, when gold is up, so is the Dow. Thus a continuation of last week's rally seems in the cards for this week to the 10,300 to 10,500 range, but beyond that is anyone's guess. The problem is that once a dollar exodus is underway the potential increases for the markets to become 'disorderly' and that's when the fireworks go off.
The headline that "World markets get a G-20 boost" because the money-meisters decided this weekend to continue their economic stimulus plans may sound like a non-event, but to my way of thinking it's an admission that 1) they haven't printed enough money to jump-start the economy yet so 2) they are continuing to orchestrate what is best described as 'synchronized global inflation'.
You'll have to work out the meaning of this to your own financial statement, but imagine, if you will, that global inflation is heading up at 10-15% over the next six months or so. That's the kind of possibility to consider.
If you were in a house and its value had fallen 10-15%, it might come back up a bit and therefore tempt you into not walking away from a loan. If you've been holding back on buying a big ticket item, global synchronized inflation will tempt you to 'buy now since prices are going up.
In any event, synchronized global inflation will keep the US dollar from complete and utter collapse while at the same time dropping our standard of living since magically wages won't keep up with born again inflation. At the same time, it will moderate the amount of goods that can be bought in countries like China and India. --- Around here the long-term strategy has been to buy as many long term/big ticket goods as possible while interest rates were (and are) at lows. Hence, a car loan from a Big Bank can buy a decent car for say $20,000 at something less than 5%. A couple of years from now, the inflation rates that are coming as a consequence of global synchronized inflation might mean the car will depreciate less rapidly on the one hand, while there should be more dollars sloshing about if, and when, we get into serious recovery mode -- which pardon my conspiratorial bent here - ought to happen in time for the next presidential election cycle.
Thus people who voluntarily lowered their stand of living over the past half dozen years may now be able to reap some benefits by locking in low rates and seeing their paid-for goods actually appreciate in some cases. --- I mentioned almost a year ago I was thinking about buying an old (mid-80's) air-cooled Porsche because it might be a 'good inflation hedge'. I had done this before in the very early 1980's when inflation was zooming along. There was so much global inflation going on back then that the car I bought for $6,500 fetched $7,500 at trade in time 4½ years later. Ignoring maintenance, the underlying car actually appreciated in period I owned it.
Can you do the same kind of thing today? This isn't financial advice, but it's an interesting bet. If you think about what 20% global inflation would do to imported car prices, one has to imagine that as imported car prices go up 20% that the price of used cars will be buoyed up.
Same thing is true in other hard goods as well.
The Jet 9X20 metal lathe out in the shop was in the $800-900 range when it arrived here about 3-years back. This morning I checked prices and the new units have gone up to the $1,200-$1,350 range.
I can't tell you that machine tools are as good an inflation hedge as gold because gold in the period went up 70% and at best, the machine tooling went up only 50%, but you can kinda get the idea: Physical commodities are the hedge when money-printers are afoot. Hence long term investments in commodities look interesting and if the economy doesn't completely implode housing may be cheap.
But it's still a bet with long odds. If the market hits 10,400-500 and then drops down to test the March lows either late this year or early next, there may be one more good run-up in the market. That's when I'd be unloading any physical good hedge positions and roll back into bonds for what could be a humungous ride down.
But that's probably the biggest financial story of the day - global synchronized inflation to continue to kick-start the economy - it's what gold, machine tools, and even collectible car prices seem to be telling us.
Wall Street ought to be moderately higher for the week if my guess is right - and about the only 'biggie' due out should be the Balance of Trade figures on Friday the 13th. CPI and whether synchronized global inflation is apparent there yet is a crap shoot.
Related: An article by strategic planner Bill Sharon under the heading "What Needs to Go Right" that discusses how we have gone from goods-trading people to money traders and a swing back to goods could be something to think about...
Ida Hurricane Ida is likely to make landfall tomorrow morning along the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida coasts. The southeast weather radar looks like pretty good rainfall ought to be hitting the Florida pan handle later on this morning. --- You saw where there was a tornado in Lincoln City, Oregon this weekend? Talk about terra changes...
Big Quakes Department A 7.2 in Fiji this morning. If you look at the plate map sure looks like something big is in play all along the southern edge of the Pacific plate...
Hungry China Interesting to see that China's prime minister is pledging $10-billion in loans to Africa. Making sure the Chinese food supply chain is intact long term, perhaps.
Free Press? The headline "India limits media on contentious Dalai Lama trip" to a disputed border area. When I sit back and think about China's interest in Tibet and other high mountainous areas in that part of the world I sit back and ask "Why?" Rumors have been around seems like forever that there's some kind of "hall of records" lost in the Himalayas, that there may be hidden hints as to what's ahead in 2012...all that kind of stuff. Maybe it's because there are some minerals up there, but China's interest is enough to give one pause to wonder "Why?"
Iran's Bad 'Tude Iran's latest attitude shift has gotten some seriously negative press in Israel. "Iran ignoring USA bid to salvage deal" points out the Jerusalem Post this morning. There's a report the US has not lost hope yet, although clearly there's a sense in Israel of 'time running out'. Iran's reportedly given its president authority to end fuel and other subsidies to shift money into nuclear development in event of Western sanctions.
Detached Government Department I've argued many times that people should come back from service in Washington with no more than they had going back there...plus some adjustment for inflation - using the CPI figures like the rest of us put up with for cost of living adjustments.
So let's roll this morning with a press release from the Center for Responsive Government which reveals that 237 members of congress are millionaires:
All interesting stuff except that the real report I'd like to see as a taxpayer is what was their net worth BEFORE they went to Washington and what does that pencil out to?
The way politics (of the kind I covered in my reporting days) works is simple -yet legal. Say a congressman is on an important committee - like the XYZ committee. A lobbyist with XYZ horse trades some information with the lobbyist for the ABC industry. The lobbyist for XYZ meets with the congressman and explains the position of the XYZ industry and informally drops the hint that ABC is a good thing to invest in. No conflict of interest, because the congressman doesn't actually regulate XYZ - so this is all nice & ethical. Or it's an investment hint plus a promise of turning out XYZ industry workers to support the congressman...that kind of stuff.
Which is why disclosure of net worth before - and after - government service seems like a good idea to me.
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Coping: Growing Your Own Food Marvelous email to share! This totally rocks...
Is this cool, or what? Of course, the reader's jig sawing skills are a lot better than mine and maybe yours...but you get the idea, right?
Violence Against Bankers Worth reading: "As foreclosure nightmares increase, will more homeowners play off their bankers in violence?"
When this first popped up in the predictive linguistics it sounded almost far-fetched - with visions of "lamp posted bankers" and such. But now, well, seems to be arriving. --- A number of readers have been asking "Where's that predictive linguistics stuff about building tensions that's supposed to be going on now?" Oh, tensions are building and events like Fort Hood are signs of 'release' of tension in the form of 'outburst of violence'.
I'm just kicking back watching events unfold.
The Mindless MainStreamMedia Still, a reader asks:
No, this is Monday.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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The
yellow bucket has Swiss chard and the bucket on the left
contains beets. The greenhouse was usually 30+ degrees
warmer than the outside temperature. It would regularly get
above 120 degrees in there this last summer. Cool weather
crops like this don't respond well to excess heat. Now,
after a few weeks of cooler temps, the Swiss chard and
broccoli are really taking off. Again, quite delicious. The
buckets don't work too well for root crops, but the beet
seeds were cheap enough to experiment with. 
