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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday June
13, 2009
07:15 A CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Saturday Critics Corner I swear, sometimes when I say something which is ½ in jest, I get people who write to me and ask "What in the world were youi thinking?" Take, for example, my Friday morning remark that "since it's such a 'nice quiet Friday...."
Yeah so do I (imagine that?). But follow my logic here on the 'quiet Friday' remark:
And then we have the usual scatter plot of miscellaneous data points that taken as an aggregate can be touted as good, or bad, depending on your point of view:
Speaking of which, I'm not kidding at all when I tell you that the whole health care debate is sideshow. Here's the real deal : "The death rate drops to historic low" is THE biggest story of the week for many reasons. Let's me 'splain you Lucy:
Are there 'policy answers' to this vexing demographic nightmare? Of course!
We have winners! NK, GM foods, and Swine flu! Oh, how provident of Universe to provide such well-managed (not to mention profitable) answers! Hallelujah! See you at the Sunday session of the Church of the Almighty Dollar tomorrow, for surely we are all blessed.
Well, except maybe for in Iran when "Heeee's baaaack...." as president Ahmadinejad is reported leading that countries elections. Which I why I have been telling you "watch a week either side of October 26th for that to blow up" since that's when linguistics looks for a big disturbance in the force.
Does make me want to go back to bed, but too much to do around the ranch... May I have the...
Next Critic Oh here's a gem...under the subject line "Get the facts before youi write". Hell's bells, who does that anymore? Here's the email:
It's 'cuz they die earlier, best I can figure. But, if you want to invest time researching (or debating my take) on what's a bad habit, have at it. Here's a good starting point. The only kinda smoking that makes sense is the NORML kind which would neuter the booze lobby....and maybe the connoisseur kind, since I still have my pre-Castro Cuban cigar in the humidor and a bottle of Remy from a thankful reader who saved a few bucks (ok, maybe more than a few) thinking and acting on the kind of thinking published here......
Boxed In Hmmm...not sure what this one means:
This reader is referring to the choices in the category drop-down boxes on my news tip page. I have that on my to-do list. However, it was down at number 1,378 in the priority list.
I have moved it up to 993. to simplify things, I may just eliminate all drop-down choices and put "other" for all of them, LOL. --- This was accompanied by a note to "US Foreclosure filings top 300,000 as bank seizures loom." Good thing to be aware of if you even so much as think of skipping work for a day...now's NOT the time to risk ANYTHING.
Dark Outlook "How come you haven't mentioned the July Total Eclipse of the Sun?"
Because we're not in China or Oilstan, maybe?
Unfortunately Right Sadly, until a few days ago here's a reader who was skeptical of the predictive linguistics that mentioned 50-people being involved in a big 'disappearance' this summer. Now, oh, look at this:
Yup, here's the story about 50 bodies recovered from the crash site.
Damn rickety time machine, anyway. Look for the report maybe Tuesday or Wednesdayish this week. I'll let you know when it's posted. Next critic, pleeze?
In the What? Ah...in response to my 'celling taxes" bit this week about the possibility of laying taxes on work-provided cell phone use as a taxable bennie, here's something reassuring:
Included was a link to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania's listing of taxable and exempt property which reassures us that the following items are not taxable there yet:
This is only a sampling, of course, and every state has its own interp as to what should and shouldn't be taxed...but I have to wonder just how aghast the Founding Fathers would be with this list. ---- Might want to buy some of those tax-free snow suits now, btw: NASA says the sun is just about blank when it comes to sunspots. Oh, and that means global cooling. Just, you won't see this on the 6-o'clock news, since it would fly in the face of the current hypodigm with it's bankster bailouts and carbon credit nonsense (since it's like setting up a wife-beating exchange to monetize another form of sick behavior).
We have bigger problems than paper and it's never too late to work on your garden. Cooler earth means less food. And we hunger for solutions around here to the BIG problems. Like will the number of people who are going to die this year and next from swine flu (and fallout) going to be enough to offset the reduced agricultural output from the sun going 'cold'?
See you Monday...unless you subscribe to Peoplenomics.com, in which case Sunday we'll explore how complex societies recover from collapse... --- Send comments to george@ure.net --- For Your Money's Worth: Peoplenomics: Depression or Recession? This week, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally a bit more, with some softness to follow come month-end, and then one or possibly two more short moves up into either mid-July or mid-August. And then, I'm figuring the stock market will have completed its setup for another one of those 'once-in-a-lifetime' declines, which seem to be coming with some regularity. This week, a bit of detail on how past Depressions and sharp market drops have looked, and some amplification and detail on my very different way of looking at things'. We'll start with..... More For Subscribers Subscription Information MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear has nailed a great solution for people who living in apartments and condos who want to become at least partially self-reliant when it comes to raising food: An ultra-high efficiency micro-hydroponics system using readily available local parts. 25-pages and plenty of pictures to turn you into a farmer no matter where you live (Great if you have back problems, too...)...or if you just want to fill up the back yard with MyGroPonics trees and feed the neighborhood... $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager Maxa-Tools has provided us with a free demo - which you're welcome to try - of their dandy cookie manager tool that I use here on all my computers. It shows both the browser-specific and the newer browser-independent cookies. Quite happy with it.
Here's the download link for the free demo:
www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those pesky 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I took over 1,000 cookies off my son's machine that he swore was clean. It ran much faster.
Shameless Self Promotion UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help. (Oh, sure, sometimes because we tell you the news before it happens and because my economic analysis has been better than 99% of the PowersThatBe who obviously don't get it; but let's not go into chest-pounding mode...) So don't stop now. Tell all your friends to wander on by for an uncommon mixture of relevant & real economics, humor such as it is, preparedness, all served up with the occasional side order of ...well, weird. Click here for a tool that may help. (It'll pop up an email window if youi use Outlook (or a few other email programs) then simply send a link to everyone on your distro list...
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday June 12, 2009
Predictive Linguistics Nice quiet Friday, so let's focus on the big picture/important stuff here: You will remember that back in March, when there was a flurry of news coverage about oceans rising that came out of a Scandinavian conference, that this would set an approximately 90-day timeline before we got to the 'main events' of Global Coastal Event coming into view.
Well, sure 'nuf right on schedule we're reading how "Scientists: Global warming has already changed oceans" What's more, senator Maria Cantwell of Washington issued a news release this week enumerating the whole litany of ocean/global coastal event impacts. Here's her press release - normally not something I'd post, except that it shows very much the meeting the linguistic expectations. I've highlighted some of the archetype grabbers that were in the linguistics in case you're still asleep, it being Friday and all:
Of course, on top of this, we know that ocean dead zones are developing, and some of our own research suggests that 'oceans rising' will go nonlinear at some point, far beyond what the current expectations are. I mean, throw in a good handful of 'dancing mountains/ new lands emerging' over the rest of the year and you have what? I mean besides a global crisis? --- It is possible that the first of the $10-summary ALTA reports from the newest data run will be released by Cliff (www.halfpasthuman.com) next Tuesday or Wednesday. But when I talked to him yesterday, he was a seriously bummed out dude.
Since putting the linguistics together is such a (horrible/awful/screaming/depressing) bummer, the reports will likely not be done on a weekly basis. more like: As he gets recovered from looking at depressing change enough to do another. Looks like next week's report will be in the 15-17 page kinda range... I'll let you know when it's posted.
Import Price Message? So, with this morning's report that import prices to the US rose 1.3% in May driven largely by petroleum prices, is that because oil is going up OR that the purchasing power in real terms of the US dollar overseas is going down?
Cracking Down on Smoking A new federal cigarette bill is in the works. Like the old song ("Cigarettes and Whiskey and Wild Wild Women") explains smoking: "There's a fire on the one end and a fool on t'other." And the fools cost $100-billion in health case. Had my last one in 1987...
Celling Taxes What's this? IRS is reported considering a bill which would put a tax on use of a work cell phone in proportion to how many personal versus business calls are made on it. think of it as a presently untaxed 'fringe benefit'. --- Why can't we just go to a simple flat rate consumption tax? Why next thing you know, employers who put toilet paper in restrooms won't be able to write off that expense unless they serve food and water on the premises...I mean where does this extensible to absurdity end?
Pokers and Pokees' Government is going after online poker operations, it seems. I think this is the deal: If the government was getting reliable 1099's from all the online outfits, I don't know as this would be happening. Not sure, though. --- However the gray area is whether people playing online (as in where the server is located in a Poke-allowed state) from a state that bans poker, constitutes a crime. And when did this become something of the fed's interest? I'm a little slow, so could someone point out where the power to control gambling was ceded by Texas (or any other state) to the central government?
Seems in many areas, the central government just takes power by shoving things through Congrease without States agreeing to it, or ceding the specific power. Which I seem to recall as being reserved for the States is not specifically ceded.
It's all about money, though: I figure if the federal government were really going after illegal gambling they'd do something about the damn naked short selling problem, wouldn't they? Just saying' poker is a game of skill, not gambling, any more than putting money in a 401(k) is gambling her lately, know what I mean?
World's Glowing Future North Korea seems to be about to lay another bomb 'test' on the world. --- One of these days, these countries that scoff at the NPT are actually going to set some off in something other than the 'test' mode...otherwise, I figure, they wouldn't be building them.
And you saw where Iran and North Korea have formed an alliance to work on delivery systems?
Where's the Boogie Man? Department As long as we're on 'who to fear', you saw this? "CIA: Bin Laden still believed to be in Pakistan". Right....
Gassing Geese Here's a fine example of how humans don't connect dots very well. New York is planning to gas 2,000 geese to prevent then from causing problems for jets going in and out of JFK. I can see that, but if we look just a little ways into the future, we can see how air traffic will likely be shutting down this fall due to the pandemic flu which the WHO has declared, so the amount of jet traffic should collapse - along with airline, hotel, car rental, eat-out restaurants - this fall.
In case you haven't been keeping count, there were 13,217 cases of swine/hybrid flu and 27 deaths in the USA as of last week, and I would expect the number of cases to be over 16-thousand when new figures come out tonight.
And you can guess what that will mean for air travel this fall, right? Restrictions on travel, anyone?
Strong-Arming and Squirming Reports today suggest that Ken Lewis of Bank of America ticked off congress on Thursday by not using emotionally hot terms like strong-arm as the Federal Reserve and former Treasury boss Hank Paulson encouraged BofA to bailout Merrill Lynch.
Whose Bonds? Where's the financial novelist who could come up with one this good? "2 Japanese Carrying $134 Billion In U.S. Bonds Detained In Italy..." Say, that's some flash roll, huh? Wonder if they are real or counterfeit?
Head in the Clouds Is there a new kind of cloud out there? Or just the chemies?
Truth Leaks In headlines "Confusion expected as analog TV Broadcasts end."
It's simple: If you watch TV, you're confused. Is that so difficult to grasp?
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Personal Productivity: Coping With Bad Air People often ask me things like "Gosh, George, how do you seem to stay 'up' so much and get so much stuff done?" The answer is simple: I cheat. Most people never spend more than a few minutes considering in a logical way just how to get the most done. If you're interested, I've got a short list that I try to live by:
The reason that I mention this is that I'm an 'negative ion junkie'. "What's that," you're wondering? Ah ha!
My personal awareness of being a
negative ion junkie came back in my news directoring days when I
interviewed Fred Soyka - this was in the 1970's if memory
serves. He had written a this book called The Ion Effect : How Air Electricity Rules Your Life and Health
I know - sounds like woo-woo, but it's not. Here's the short version of Soyka's research: The air around you has either a positive, or negative, electrical charge. When air is charged positive, it causes a lot of ill effects. For example, the air that comes across the Sahara, the Sirocco, is a positively charged air mass. That air is a real bummer. Because it's positively charged, people tend to get moody, depressed, suicide rates go up, and productivity goes down.
Not that you need to head to North Africa, though. You can find positive ion winds in places like Greece where they call it the Meltemi, and it's well described in this German language translated Wiki. But again, you don't need to even head for southern Europe to get a positive ion bummer: You also find high positive ions in places like Southern California where the Santa Anna winds blow a big bummer (not to mention the odd brush fire). Or, even closer to where you sit (perhaps in a 'cube farm') positive ions are created like crazy by the HVAC systems of many buildings and have been linked with something called 'sick building syndrome'.
Far fringe of BS? Nope. Sick Building Syndrome, says a Wiki note, afflicts up to 30% of new and remodeled buildings worldwide.
Along about here, youi should be asking yourself "How do you know if you're sensitive to this 'ion effect?"
Easily identified. People who are 'addicted to negative ions' usually have some (or all) of the following characteristics:
If you'd like to pursue this on your own, the book The Ion Miracle: The effects of negative ions on physical and mental well-being
As I say, I've known for years that I'm a negative ion junkie - and I've gone way out of my way to live a negative ion rich lifestyle. Some things you can do:
OK, what got me to mentioning this? We've just had several days of thunderstorms with plenty of lightning here in East Texas...flooding, too, up in the Dallas/Metroplex, too. So last night while I was finishing up for the day, I turned on my small negative ion/ozone generator. This morning when I came into the office (with the requisite cuppa waker-upper, I was immediately 'amped' by the air in the room. Invigorating as well. Just like stepping into a shower or going for a hike in the mountains.
Not everyone is as sensitive as I am to this 'negative ion' affinity. But, as I look back over my life, I can see where my deep interest in tube-type radio gear comes from (lots of high voltage about, got it? Source of negative ions there...) as well as living on a sailboat for 10-years. Yeah, crapped and all, but whoa.,...what a great place for coffee in the rain...
When I find my creativity is waning, or I am not as 'amped' about something - or as clearly focused as I know I'm capable of being - I try to remember to stop and ask. "How am I managing the air that I'm breathing?" Subtle? yes. Big difference in personal productivity?
Go try it yourself.
Couple of cautions: Like anything, it can be overdone. Too much negative ions and you can cause lung irritation, so study up on ozone exposure limits. And, if you do happen to run a heavy ionizing system that does create ozone, be aware that anything made of rubber deteriorates quickly upon exposure to ozone. You're after ions not ozone...so study the difference.
I'm having to repair the rubber suspension mounts on three studio condenser microphones (MXL-990's) because I have run my ozone generator a bit heavy handedly causing the elastic to stop e-lasting...
When Universe Wants Something Back in my airline days, we had a saying: "When you're time's up, your times up..." With the idea that no matter how good, or bad the weather, when it's your time to go, it's your time to go.
Latest story in that file: "Woman who missed Flight 447 is killed in car crash."
You Know It's a Depression When... "Game sales fall sharply as recession bites..."
That's because it's not a game, it's an role-playing adventure....
Thursday June 11, 2009 Mixed Messages on Recovery/Inflation Before we get to this morning's key numbers (retail and initial unemployment claims): Yes, I am expecting inflation to come along not later than November. In fact, if it goes towards hyperinflation, I wouldn't be surprised. Reason? The US is having to print up a lot of 'money' in order to pay for the 'too big to fail'; problems and then there's the problem of paying for 'economic stimulus' as well as the shrinking - yet still significant - balance of trade deficit.
So, when the UK's Guardian headlines "Oil Price Leaps to year's high: Predictions of $250 a barrel on fears for oil reserves, hopes of economic recovery and hedging against weak dollar" I take it as a very likely outcome. --- Meantime, besides owing me a hundred shares of GM and probably a bit more than that worth of AIG shares, I see this morning how the government will end up with a 34% share of Citigroup. --- Then there was the lukewarm (at best) sale of long-term Treasuries on Wednesday, again it goes to the idea that a fair number of savvy people are hedging higher interest rates to come. --- The good news (such as it is, LOL) is that a friend on Wall Street says the yields are coming down on some of the BBB and C kinds of 'junk bond' rates, such that he thinks he sees a 'floor' under the S&P 500 of about 600. He notes that even with the jitters, the 10-year rate is still in historically cheap territory.
But here's where we part agreement: While he seems to sense 600 as a floor (based on the idea that competing yields will continue to be a price driver) and therefore, market risk is coming down on the equities side, I counter that what's likely going to happen to his 'floor' is that 600 may be the number, but that will hold only because by then (late fall) pernicious inflation will be back in play as the dollar declines reassert themselves.
And what would this 'floor' of S&P 600 translate to in terms of the Dow? The S&P closed on Wednesday at 939.15, That means the ?Dow could lose 36% of its value from here which pencils to 5,583.
Since markets almost always overshoot either to the bullish ebulliences, or the bearish OMG'ness, that would make something like Dow 4,600 possibubble. --- The next of the mixed messages comes from the report that Foreclosures fall 6 percent in May from April. Think that's a good sign? Well, no.
One of the reasons for the fall in foreclosures is that banks are privately working out 'stay in your house and pay us when you can' arrangements with people. What's driving this? Thought you'd never as. There are two drivers. First, banks are desperate to get out from under the federal controls on pay/bonus/and practices that come from taking TARP money, so they are trying harder than hell not to book nonperforming loans. So, if you are in possible foreclosure, if you want to cut a deal with the bank to send in $100 a month - or some minimal amount to keep your loan in the 'performing column' then that would be the thing to do. You might be pleasantly surprised; several readers have reported success negotiating a stay-in-the-house plan they can actually work with.
The second thing driving the fall in foreclosures is what I call algae pools. Don't know if you saw this, but there are more than 27,000 algae-covered pools mentioned in this report out of the SF Bay area - and these are the breeding ground for mosquitoes (West Nile Virus risks) and the banks are learning that as soon as the 'owners' get kicked out of homes when foreclosed, the asset value is declining at horrific rates driving by appliances, copper, fixture theft, and oh yeah, pools becoming a public health liability.
When you read numbers about how 'foreclosures fall' take off the rose-colored glasses, and get real. Banks are in the process of 'adjusting policies'. In any other industry it would be called 'cooking the books' but then here lately, banks are too big to criticize. Kinda like government...
And speaking of that here's how the Treasury monthly budget portrays things:
If "every picture tells a story", I'd skip the Dewey Decimal System and just file this one under Fiction>>>Horror>>Government>Financial.
Retail Sales Ups and Downs in the latest:
A Poor Tradition, Redux That the new head of GM, Edward "Whitacre vows to 'learn about cars' as GM Chairman" seems a continuation of a poor tradition. Most of GM's board doesn't know anything about cars, either. Thinking seems to be that if you know enough about finance, that will solve all problems.
Wonder if those "We don't care, we don't have to - We're the phone company" stickers popped up during Whitacres tenure at AT&T? Pardon me, but I'll just sit back skeptically....
I might mention that Honda, Toyota, and the other rice burner makers seem to focus on product, not numbers...Why, they hold to the radical assertion that quality wins in the end. How dare they!
I'm just sayin' how come Detroit didn't embrace Deming? And the difference between 'quality circles' and 'circle jerk' is what? Bailouts maybe? Notice that Ford isn't at the trough?
(Is my personal skepticism toward US auto product showing? Maybe because my 2001 Dodge Ram P/U is about to need another $800 (dealer) or $400 (do it myself) engine control module - this will be its third at under 70K miles. What me? Pist? You have no frigging idea...)
Audit The Fed 213 co-sponsors now on Ron Paul's bill to audit the Federal Reserve...and if you call your CONgressional office, maybe more will get it...
Trash for Cash Department You saw where Russia is planning to swap some of its US Treasuries for International Monetary Fund bonds? Wonder is this is the leading edge of dollar reputination? (sic)
Cash for Trash Department How come I can't be like democon Senator Byron Dorgan oif North Dakota and raise $667,398 in funding from out of state sources in Q1 2010 reports? Or Chris Dodd of Connectedup who raked in $595,250 in Q1? --- See who pulled in $480,000 from the finance, insurance, and real estate sector recently by clicking here. And our own republicorp congressman Jeb Hensarling who has been promoting hands off the credit card boyz (under some convoluted 'consumer choice' logic) raised $70,000 in the Q1 2010 report... Tisk, tisk. --- We truly have the best government money can buy. You understand why writers like me use the phrase politician's 'bid for reelection', capiche?
Brazil's Rising Prominence See where Brazil to make $10 bn loan to IMF? The money will be used to "improve the availability of credit in developing countries." Wonder if that definition now includes the USA? Maybe next year, then...
Fluage Darned hybrid/swine flu keeps popping up out in the hinterlands. A reader advices from Thailand:
Yup, A good/timely reminder that we're in a window between 'waves' of the flu. If you don't already have plans to get 60-days of food stored, so you can go into isolation to reduce your chances of exposure if 'round 2' comes through as expected this fall.
Oh, and this morning the WHO is poised to declare the flu a pandemic - the first such declaration since 1968.
AF 447 Speculation and More Speculation While the "Air France chief questions speed sensors' role in the crash, other speculation as to the cause goes to the idea that a couple of terrorists may have been on the plane and were planning to do something evil with it.
The part that sticks out - like a sore thumb - is that other planes in the same general flight path did not report bad weather to the extent as to be able to take down the plane.
Wanna Go Camping? Got just the place for you: Sri Lanka where displaced people will still be camping a year from now. Bring your own food, water, and body guards...
How About Diaspora, Then? Huge return of Lebanese to vote in their elections. March 14th Coalition is claiming victory which some picture as a win for the US in the region.
Goog This The NY Post headlines this morning that "Google gets hit: Feds launch probes after tech giant backed Obama." Or you could just search "+google +probe +federal" where you'll find look sees at Apple and Yahoo, among others are going on...
Don't Read This Under the headline "41 U.S. Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Agency Veterans Challenge the Official Account of 9/11." If you do, you might wonder about Thermite residues and about how all those naked short-selling investigation documents in WTC -7 just magically became a non-issue.
Nope. A little more fluoride in the toothpaste and water, a few more 'stress pills' and you'll be fine.
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Coping/Around the Ranch: Pelicans and Wolves Quite the bout of severe weather here in East Texas last night. Elaine and one of her friends went to Dallas on Wednesday in search of a pelican for our next big decorating project - turning a room into a museum diorama of the SF Golden Gate bridge, that is supposed to have a foot and a half high pelican in it. No luck - since pelican replicas are all but unavailable in Dallas.
The fun, though - besides their going off to the big city for shopping and all - didn't start until the trip home, when they managed to hit either a large coyote or small wolf on the highway...which punched a pinhole in the radiator. So that in turn had me out playing rescue ranger in the rain (during a heavy thunderstorm, of course! - until about 10:30 last night - and now again this morning, the local ham Skywarn net is up with still more rain and some reports of pea-sized hail.
I'll take this to be a sign from Universe that the old Daewoo is gonna get replaced one way or the other...and yeah, I can take the hint. Can we turn off the storms now? dumb George takes the hint...
But now to the point: (Besides a tip of the hat to the Skywarn project) If you know where to get a foot to foot and a half high stuffed pelican (or replica), let me know? The diorama calls for a 'half bird' to project out of the painting. The other parts of the diorama (fake rock, mooring posts, a mounted fish, an old lobster trap, is a lot easier to cobble up. Far as I know, there are now stuff/fake pelicans to be found in Dallas according to Ms. Super Shopper & her trainer, in case that comes up at the water cooler this morning. --- Besides the being up really late (getting soaked, yada yada) - and monitoring the radio this morning - I almost forgot to mention how well m y large solar power system is working. The way I set it up, my office is downstream from an automatic transfer switch. So when we've had power flicker (and in one case go out for about 15-seconds) the power here in the office has been incredibly robust. The few times that the mains a/c has gone gown, the system is set up to automatically transfer to the battery bank/inverter. Haven't even lost my second monitor. Love it when a system works like it should. --- The local emergency operations center is on backup power and there are trees down and such, so this is the kind of storming we usually don't see this time of year. Usually more the kind of thing to expect in the spring. In the storms last night, some tennis-ball sized hail was reported.
Space Balls Don't know what to make of this: "Military Hush-Up: Incoming Space Rocks Now Classified." So, we have these satellites and they tell us about what's coming toward earth. What's so damn secret about that?
Seems to me to be a 'black swan' - I mean why? Is someone/something throwing things at us? Don't want humans to know what's coming? Sorry, but this one just doesn't make sense. We already know that resolution on the eyes in the sky are good enough to read 19 point type under ideal conditions from low orbit, right atmospherics, so WTF?
10th Amendment Movement Here's a story off the Fox web site about the 10th Amendment Movement.
Seems to me that it's a sad state of affairs when we label as a 'movement' states and groups trying to hold the ever-expanding, ever more intrusive central government to keeping its cotton-picking hands off things that were NOT ceded to the central government by the various Constitutions of the States.
Yeah, I know all the excuses, common good, and so on. But there's this darned Constitution and it doesn't say anything about bailout, making up money, and planning to tax cow farts... I must be incredibly stoopid to want to hold to the wonderful Framework of America with its ingenious set of checks and balances. Dumb George. I should just give up, run for office and get rich.
Wednesday June 10, 2009 Quiet Summer Wednesday - Too Quiet Yup, life is sure 'normal'...but maybe too normal. Not that I'm the only one with a strange sort of feeling. Here's an email from a reader who catches it too:
To be sure, the recent round of flag-raising in other countries doesn't seem to have created much in the way of good will. I mean when Chinese students laugh at an American Treasury Secretary, you know something is up. But what? The candidates might include: --- The Canadian gold scandal. Right now, it's been reported that the amount of gold missing from the Canada Mint facility is in the 10's of millions of dollars. But, what if the Mounties coming into it reveals that it's a much larger amount? That might shake things up a bit. --- Won't be triple witching week - that's not till the third Friday of the month which is a week plus two days from now. --- The Obama administration is seeking the 'fiscal responsibility mantel' which seems a little implausible, but as long as he's the MSM's darling, who knows what rebranding/repackaging will be attempted. Still, not something big in terms of the markets. --- Now, one thing that may move markets would be a leak that Middle Eastern sources are doing to demand gold for their oil - which has passed $70 a barrel now as the US revised predictions of a $16-barrel gain in the second half of this year. That's a potential upper limit on market action, and if the gold rumor turns out were confirmed, that would pop metals skyward. But would that account for that 'something's not right' feeling? Don't think so. --- No, I think that what is bothering me - and should be bothering the markets - is that according to the DTCC, there was "$27.8 Trillion of Credit derivatives outstanding as of June 5th" says tyhe Wall Street Journal.
Because the predictive linguistics project has another round of derivatives meltdown coming in the mid July to Mid August timeframe, I think it's important to put some things into perspective on the derivatives front.
The first thing I'd note is that the $27.8 trillion is the notional value of the underlying credit default swaps. The word "notional" means that that the full value (notion) could only become a real debt payable in full at the most extreme of economic conditions. At anything less, they can trade at a discount to notional...sort of analogous to how bonds trade at a discount to face value, is how I understand it.
That this popped up overnight, or even in the past two years, is not a correct assumption. My friend Cliff has many high-powered math friends who have been working lucrative computer programming gigs for the past 4-5 years at some of the biggest outfits in New York, because the pricing models to set CDS values have been stretched so far out of whack, that the modeled prices & values have stopped working.
Remember the AF 447 flight where were were lots of error messages sent before the plane went down? There's an analog in the financial markets about the math and native C guru's being called in several years ago to try and get financial models working right before the first part of the systemic collapse in October of 2008. The second leg down is within a month or two for the next leg down.
At an archetype (or design pattern search) an aware person might notice that in both the financial disaster and the AF 447 crash, black boxes are at the core of developments. The missing ones from AF 447, or in the derivatives disaster, the 'black box financial models' based on long & involved logic chains that humans may not be able to keep up with. Just a curious parallel to me. --- By the way - this grouping of a linguistic/archetype concept (here: black boxes) is what in time monk circles we refer to as a meta layer in the data. Once you see (usually with the help of modelspace, but this morning just using a bit of coffee) you can then taker the linguistically extensible path and go see what else is going on in the meta layer "black box" concept and trip over seeming innocuous headlines like "Progress Apama and Object Trading Ltd sign Partnership" where further detail emerges from the meta layer about the value of 'black boxes":
Black boxes are cool, and all, but while it's possible to make generalized trading decisions in advance and apply them in normal market conditions, where such models seem to have a 'soft underbelly' is when multiple assumed trading venues are impacted by extremely nonlinear events. Which means? How does a black box financial model perform under stress of something like the Russian markets closing for a couple of sessions as they did last fall?
Moreover, how do these black boxes work in an arbitrarily constrained market where there's the potential for a combination of closures as well as trading restrictions? Those are the design issues which the math whizzes figure they can deal with.
As we get into the next couple of months - and maybe even as late at October before we see the really BIG public awareness pop on this. --- Oh yeah, one other thing to pop out of this little extensible linguistics exercise: There's a British company that is out with something called the 'RoadHawk' digital driver protection system - a combination of GPS and video set up into a 'black box' for cars and trucks. Care to place a bet that within 5-years, insurance companies will be offering discounts for having this kind of 'black box' technology in your car, so that driver activity as video can be used as evidence in automobile injury cases?
Remember the concepts here: 'Meta layers' in data, extensible archetypical linguistics, and a slice of pie please.
Out From Under the TARP While 10-banks may be able to get out from under TARP restrictions by repaying $68-billions, turns out Treasury also holds a bunch of warrants which will have to be redeemed, too. That will push the cost of out from under up to $73.1 billion if my pencil is working right this morning.
In some ways it's karmic justice to see banks getting treated like credit card users, but on the other hand, it's sad that they're in this position at all.
Balance of Trade Deficit Shrinking If there's one good thing about the current international financial mess, it is that the amount of goods being brought into the US is declining and that has started what may be a longer term trend toward self-sufficiency; although speculation in that direction is likely way premature. While up a tad in the latest report out today from the Census Bureau, the increase in the latest figures is but a blip compared to previous Balance of Trade Deficits (BOTD's):
The thing I keep an eye on - since it seems to me a good indicator of how well America is doing in the high tech area is the Advance Technology Products category:
Damn! Still importing more high tech than we export. "Lead in tech or hit the deck, Lead in food you can be rude..." That's how to simplify econ, I think; poetry.
Boom Times "28 people have been killed in a South Iraq Market Bombing" reports the NYT.
Also experiencing boom times: Pakistan where 16 are dead in a hotel bombing.
Iran Elections Near Hardliners versus moderates seems to be the set-up as Iran heads into elections on Friday. Wonder what kind of campaign funding disclosure requirements they have in place? --- Our own Congress has put off the vote apparently on the "Iran Sanctions Enabling Act of 2009" citing the elections. So with any change in the strategic balance internally, I still expect the bombing by Israel to come along toward the end of October. Any reduction in the power base of incumbent president Ahmadinejad will cause reassessment of chances for a peaceful outcome. And then it'll be bombs away, I reckon.
Fair trial before the hanging kinda thing, to put it in frontier justice terms. They just have too much oil for their own good. Strip away the resource, and who'd care?
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Coping: Coming After Knives Oh oh. Forget about the Ammo Shortage I've been telling you about for three years. Forget that the Obama administration has been the best gun sales promotion to hit firearms in decades.
No, seems that new regulations are in the works that would place new and more stringent limits on knives as one of our sharp-eyed readers has sniffed out:
Oh my goodness... a visit to www.kniferights.org turns up this page of interest "US ATTEMPTS TO RE-DEFINE SWITCHBLADES – WOULD MAKE MOST POCKET KNIVES ILLEGAL
Now, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but here's the 63 page proposal which goes on my reading list. However, being no fool, I ordered a couple of one-hand opening Spyderco's off eBay last night. When you live the kind of life I have (10-years on an offshore capable sailboat and now 7-years as a ranch owner) I can't tell you how indispensible a good one-hand opening knife is.
Boy, I can hardly wait for knife registration. Why, next thing you know, we'll all be going to the Outback or Ruth's Chrisd with rubber gloves and just gnaw on the prime rib. We're going back to Medieval times for sure. Which is why Elaine and I joined the folks at www.sca.org, LOL.
And that 'society for creative anachronism' not 'creative anarchy'. We've got the PTB for that.
Retribing I've made mention many times about the whole 'retribing' thing that seems to be going on, especially with kids in their 20's coming back to the roost to live with mom and dad so they can finish upo schooling which might otherwise not be affordable given rents and falling wages.
So, it's with this in mind that I am not surprised to see that "Home Depot shares jump on raised profit forecast."
As I look at a variety of indicators, such as the Consumer Debt (Credit) report from the Fed and just talk to people, seems like the idea of getting rich though house flipping is pretty much gone, and since I'm not looking for the absolute bottom of the current decline to be in until late 2012 to late 2013 on a purchasing power corrected basis, I think what's going on is that people are trying to make their homes as comfortable as possible for this period. --- A significant sidebar to the retribing/cocooning in the home is seen in computer use trends, too. Lots of growth out there in services like Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, and did you see where Craigslist is now almost up to the $100-million in revenue level?
Again, it goes to the notion that people are finding new - and much less expensive ways - to connect and socialize than the traditional bricks and mortar approach.
Using our 'extensible archetypes' kind of view, it brings into question a lot of old 'bricks and mortar' that may fall - or at least change dramatically.
For example, the nature of how kids date seems to be changing. I noticed when my son was visiting, for example, that he was getting the 'low-down' on what's out her in the East Texas outback by simply hitting local connections of people. In an earlier time, he would have been out every night of his visit, hitting the local bars and night clubs, talking to people, being social and such. But not any longer. Takes too much time. Instead - and admittedly much more efficient, he can chat, revenue the local spots, and then make a one-time trip into town, just to 'people watch' since he's already got a pretty solid girlfriend by the sound of it. --- The trend in how people meet and collect relationships is changing in a big way. For those of us over 50, the old way to meet someone was to go bar-hopping - a practice that over the past 10-years or so has really fallen out of favor due to drinking and riving enforcement. Another way to meet was to pursue your interests and meet at some common ground, such as a gym, or in the case of Elaine and I at the Seattle Singles Yacht Club.
Today's young people, though, they have a way different approach. Research oriented. Read the Facebook, check out the MySpace, look at YouTube. See how someone texts and twitters, first.
Social networking seems to be providing a new way to date; video conference and conversation on Skype and all kinds of other tricks to being single.
I didn't know diddly about the international Couch Surfing group, but again, young people are finding a whole new way to beat hotel costs by couch surfing; or at their site explains "CouchSurfing is a worldwide network for making connections between travelers and the local communities they visit."
Gone, it seems, are those halcyon days of polyester leisure suits and a trip to the local beef & brew, with males like me trying to live out the adventures of Leisure Suit Larry. Just doesn't seem like as much fun sitting in front of a computer, though. Does everything have to go virtual?
Tuesday June 9, 2009 Looking Ahead: The "Counterfeit Gold" Problem We arrive now at a curious little eddy in the flow of time where according to the linguistics out of www.halfpasthuman.com, we should be seeing lots of action/headlines and awareness about the 'counterfeit gold' meme.
This is potentially and important one because there are several ways the linguistics can 'fill', but the main concept is fake gold. And there's plenty of that popping. A story in the Toronto Star now reveals that the 'missing gold' in Canada's Mint could be in the tens of millions of dollars worth.
Also missing is silver, platinum, and palladium. So we will find out when the audit is released in two weeks or so. However, I'm not sure that timeline will hold since when there's this kind of discrepancy who knows what kind of you-know-what-covering will be going on. --- Meantime, the trading price of gold has failed to continue its upside breakout that many people were expecting. One report says a move down to $933.50 may be in the works, but for most people who are adding a bit of metal to their portfolios, it may or may not matter, since gold has been a long-term hedge against inflation/excess money printing and as such is more a buy & hold rather than trading adventure. --- Around June 21, the new $10/slice weekly predictive linguistics reports will become available from HalfPastHuman, so it ought to be interesting to see how the 'fit' on the counterfeit gold is coming along. However, just as a 'head's up' independently, both Cliff and I purchased not one but two of those inexpensive digital scales off eBay to double-check the weight and then measure the size of a gold coin should either of us come to own one. We both already have calipers... After all, no point in knowing the future if it can't be turned into something actionable, right?
Sound Money Concerns As we move into the balance of the summer, where linguistically we have the derivative meltdown second dance beginning, I'm expecting a boat load of stories that will seem to confuse the issue of 'what is money' and 'what holds value'.
For example, we read today how "China as fears on US Debt, dollar: Lawmaker" where we read how China would like to diversify somewhere out of dollars.
Consider the following hypothetical situation which could arise shortly and ask yourself "How would I allocate assets in this kind of environment?
That's the kind of problem that keeps me up at night. I remember the 'good old days' when the investment problem used to be picking the asset class with the greatest upside potential.
That seems to have changed, however, to where the largest problem for most investors is better stated as "Pick the asset class which has fewest booby traps and which has the greatest intrinsic value."
Intrinsic value of things like gold coins, only works as long as there is full faith in gold coins being of a certain quality. Same goes for silver.
Oh sure, the acquisition of something like producing ag land (trees and goats in our case) may be one way to hedge, but the problem is that it doesn't meet two of the key qualities that make something 'money'. It's not easily transportable nor is it easily divisible.
Prepared people have been grappling with this one for years. The metals being easily transportable, divisible, and having a great historical track record, would seem to be an obvious target of the PTB in trying to lock people into playing the paper assets game. At the same time, slowly increasing regulation of independent food producers, through agendas like the National Animal Identification Act and de facto support of chemical farming, again all serve to reduce people's options and force them to play the game.
One upon a time, America was a place where individual freedoms and Liberties stood as a beacon of hope for peaceful hard working people who wanted to get ahead through their own efforts. Seeing this, a group which I simply label the PowersThatBe have installed themselves as a kind of protection racket. You can have your freedoms, but not all of it...there's tribute required.
And the amount of tribute seems to grow over time. Whether it's through the obvious debasement of the currency - which has lots over 95% of its purchasing power since 1913, or whether it's the promise of higher taxes to come as government's here to 'help' by nationalizing auto companies, and insurance company, or many of the nation's banks.
I notice reporting only - not so much criticism - as Hugo "Chavez moves to nationalize Venezuela chemical plants." Know why this is not a drum-beating event? The PTB and their lackeys in the MSM know darned good and well that too much criticism of Chavez might get him out on a speaking tour where he'd explain how his seizure of chemical companies would be a trifling compared to an AIG bailout - something that it seems to me the power structure would not be too fond of having people figure out.
Not that it doesn't leak out around the edges anyway as former republicorp veep runner Sarah Plain is saying to voters "Told you so!" It's just that she's still nominally in the fold, and besides, a bit of criticism is tolerated, just to keep up appearances that we're not living in a controlled society.
Well, fine. We'll just keep spreading our bets here and there, hoping to figure out how the House has rigged the tables in this Casino in their favor and play along with that while eyeing the calendar looking for the next primary election to come along, which is where the paradigm has to shift, because it's in the primaries where the ruling paradigm maintains its grasp by suppressing third parties.
Good Fiction Well, what's this? The Wall Street Journal's got a good op-ed piece this morning about how "The media fall for phony 'jobs' claims".
Why, that sounds remarkably familiar. Wonder where we've heard that mantra before?
Repackaged And there's an AP story out headline "Obama repackages stimulus plans with old promises."
'Year Without Summer' Not only are some parts of the US talking about a 'year without summer', but there's an AccuWeather story you have to read about the "Recent Upswing in Lightning." Does this mean the weather situation is 'static'? (Don't worry, this horribly lame attempt at a high tech pun will make sense to some...just keep the coffee hot and keep on reading - the puns get worse from here..)
Doesn't Ad Up Oh sure, we've seen those stories about how ad sales are down big-time in various newspapers. But, as USA Today reports "Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5%". Not unexpected though because we have what? --- Boston Globe workers have rejected proposed wage/benefit cuts.
Debt-Powered Economy I forgot to mention last week's Consumer Debt report - mislabeled by the Fed as the Consumer Credit report so it won't be so apparent that it's the how far you're in hock report. Consumer debt total is declining at an annual rate of 7.4% as people slow their spending on junk products and save for necessities only - like food and a roof. But the real key here is revolving debt (things like credit cards) where the annual rate is down 11% - a mere 0.2% uptick from the previous month.
Want a simple way to see if the economy is recovering? Look for an improvement in consumer debt. But be careful as you look, since if the consumer debt is going up only as a function of inflation, that's illusory.
No California Welfare? Could this be a Diaspora driver? "California contemplates ultimate reform - no welfare." If they do, here's a simple prediction: They will need more crime fighting money...
You Know You're In Trouble When... "World Bank boss sees China spurring global recovery."
Who Do We Believe Here? "Airline chiefs dismiss safety fears over A330 jets" OR "Air France pilots told not to fly Airbus jets after Brazil crash."
I'll walk, thanks. Usually just my ankles get wet...
Summer of Hell Department "Many missing after Peru riots." Global meme.
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Coping: Readers Writes Tuesday From the Inbox:
Oh, we know it's too early to declare out of the woods - which, in case you haven't noticed are growing faster than bamboo...
Bearing Truth here:
Hold it! Hold it! You have stumbled upon one of those Cosmic Truths that most people don't get! American equipment doesn't need any bearings in it any more, since there is so much GREASE in Washington DC. Why things are being slipped to us so often that who needs bearings?
Update: But seriously: We still make bearings in America - maybe not the one this fellow needed.
Here's one:
This reader also sent a link to a site with the headline "FEMA web page shows martial law exercise with foreign troops" but I couldn't find the word 'foreign' on the FEMA page...
BTW, this reader's footer on the email said (I like this one): "If getting a credit card were as difficult as getting a concealed weapons permit, America would not be in the financial mess still emerging." --- Prius Owners respond:
Like I said yesterday, I don't take any more in my wallet than about $20-bucks so I don't go doing anything stoopid when I go to a car dealership...Pappy didn't raise no fool.
Whaddaya mean "Oh yes he did?"
Radioactive Consumer Goods? Oh oh...
Well, look, it's all very simple. People have been using the phrase 'nuke' something in the microwave for years. I figure this is just another example of how the whole of society 'dances' with Universe co-creating reality. We carelessly go around using a word like 'nuke' and somehow all seem to get surprised when things of the nuke/radiation/radioactive type starts to show up everywhere.
Most people are not very careful in their choice of words used in everyday conversation - and it's just this lack of low-level filtering that the predictive linguistics project is based on. If people were truly auspicious in how they selected their inner (self talk) words, most people would have a much better & happier life.
But that's the thing. Unless you understand (and act on the knowledge) that to a much larger degree than you'd ever believe, we each co-create our world & destiny, you'll never rise to the heights you're capable of.
Most people I've met don't ever pay any attention to the quality of their inner thoughts which as Plato or Jung will advice is what our individual and collective subconscious projects onto the outer world just as the archetypes in the Allegory of the Cave project out onto the 'screen' of life we deal with in our waking states.
The aware individual, however, will simply note how the word 'nuke' has permeated the language with contexts such as microwave cooking, video games like "Duke Nuke'em" and an expression of military and combative sports. To be surprised that things 'nuked' or of the nuclear/radioactive archetype should show up in places where the contexts are used is to be unwilling to dance.
So next time you hear someone in an elevator say "I'm going to go home and nuke leftovers tonight, I think" try to remember that elevator buttons becoming 'radioactive' makes certain sense, since that's where the archetype invoked by people unaware of the power of words. It's a subtle thing... "In the beginning ..." there was what?
Now you'll excuse me while I go invoke "winning lottery numbers..."
Monday June 8, 2009 Tension Building Behind Markets A good report in the NY Times this morning about how tense things are among president Obama's economic advisors is worth study. One gets the idea that the happy-talk about the recovery may be a bit over-done and that despite the change-out in the Dow this morning we still have a lot of structural issues to face yet, including the possibility of a commercial real estate collapse and so forth as we move along into summer.
For one thing, the unemployment rate is running ahead of expectations of most (except us, eh? Wink, wink, nudge, nudge...) and the much-touted 'things are looking better mantra' that became apparent in the www.halfpasthuman.com linguistics about 9-months back is here. The rhyme off "Good Times are Just ahead."
You can see it in a chart that I did for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, too. The current circumstance is looking more and more like 1929's Great Depression, when compared with the market breaks in 1919, 1987, 2000 and now. Not exactly confidence inspiring. --- Tomorrow, wholesale inventories are expected to be down about 1%, anything more in the way of inventory building would be a negative for the market.. Wednesday brings the balance of trade figures, but since the latest figures for the Port of LA are down 15% year-on-year, while outbound is only down 4.23%, anyone with 31-cents worth of brains would expect the trade gap to narrow.
If you like reading light fiction, you might tune in for the Treasury Budget on Wednesday afternoon.
Retail sales and business inventories come out Thursday, which is not exactly a nail-biter. If you want one of those, wait for the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report on Friday. Best guess is that it will be about 70.5 from it's previous 68.7, but a downside surprise can't be ruled out. Just depends on how many gunpoint-vacation auto workers showed up in their polling. --- Seems to me like the rally may continue into next week - which is options week - and perhaps a bit of selling by late in the month as portfolio managers try to book some profits before repositioning into early July. If you want to play the last of the rally up to the 9,600-9,700 range, that might be a decent game plan to ponder.
Not that this is financial advice. Although I've suggested before that since everyone except us seems to have gotten all of this spectacularly wrong, your investment advice money might be better spent on I-Ching sticks, a set of rune stones, or an ayahuasca vacation.
At least then, you'll know what kind of trip you're on. Wall Street is doing a fine cross between Prozac withdrawal and Alzheimer's, best I can...er...where were we? Oh yeah...just...
Chillin' Sunday was the coldest June 6th of record up in Green Bay Wisconsin. And North Dakota snow this weekend was the first in nearly 60-years. How cool is that? You know about the "Ice Age Now" site, right? --- That new deck I build on the front of the house - which Elaine was a tad skeptical of - has turned out to be a real treat in the afternoons with this being an unusually cool and non-humid late spring here. Thank you to Wisconsin for keeping the weather nice and mild in the nation's midsection. Just remember to turn things up for the crops along in here somewhere, thank you.
447 Fifteen more bodies have been recovered from the Air France crash site. My bet? 50 bodies will be recovered. Would fit predictive linguistics.
NK's Bargaining Chip North Korea finding two reporters for "Current" have been sentenced to 12-years of hard labor in North Korea. White House is appropriately concerned. Seems to me like it's a chip to be played.
Buy Canadian I see here where "Canada passes "Buy Canada" type resolution." I'd caution our brethren to the north to calm down that kind of talk, lest the Chinese hear it and decide "Yeah, not a bad idea...." They have enough FOREX floating about they could probably write a check. If someone would take that many US dollars, LOL. --- But seriously, I've long been a supporter of "Buy Canadian"; as in Maple Leafs and we ain't talking hockey.
There Be Pirates, Department Sweden's Pirate Party has captured a Euro seat. Salient quote: "The party wants to deregulate copyright, abolish the patent system and reduce surveillance on the Internet." --- Say: How about an open-source Congress here instead of the lobbyist-free-for-all-bidding festival that skims the tables in the Washington Casino? As I have noted before, it's shocking how many first-timers go to Washington flat broke and return 10-years later will millions that no, dear, didn't come from salaries and working for strictly their home district folks. --- My tip-off that something is fishy back there came from the fact they can't get a balanced federal budget or control all the money-printing and still they get phat. Know what I'm saying? Is it primary time yet?
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Coping: The Long-term Outlook for Travel I've often held that early 21st century humans take for granted the idea of going anywhere in the world, more or less at the drop of a hat. Not that I haven't traveled, having logged somewhere north of a dozen countries. But there are signs about that this will be coming to an end at some point. The hints in that direction?
The problem with these kinds of headlines is that they bring into focus larger factors. Specifically, all the jobs which have been created - and maintained - by a growing air transport sector. Think about it: Rental car fleets (sorry Detroit) will likely be pared back, hotel construction will slow, and at that has all kinds of ripple effects at the secondary and tertiary levels into the local economy of just about every big city I can think of.
That's what separates the concept of 'recession' from 'depression.' In a recession, as lagging sectors of the economy start to feel real pain, the leading sectors of the economy are already pulling out and the turn is in.
The danger we face today, especially since the derivatives and banking problems are still out there, is that we don't have sectors in what I'd call a recovery mode yet. There's the hope that the optimism on Wall Street will mean something, but I'm not holding my breath.
By the time November comes (when it's absolute low season in the Caribbean and a time of tremendous travel bargains until November 15th or so) I expect a lot of Caribbean carriers will have c load factors so low that (as an old airline joke goes) "We could make more money using the interior for a bowling alley or archery center..."
Has Mr. Grump talked you out of buying airline stocks thinking their cheap? Like I said in last Saturday's column: I'm not expecting the 'bottom to be in' on the current decline until 2013 and by then it will be a whole new world. Look at the factors that drive airlines (passenger load factor, fuel, and operation costs like landing fees, gate costs, staff, and now another tax is out there) and ask yourself this: "Is this the best bet in the Casino?"
You tell me. Airlines worldwide will lose $9-billion this year - and that's before the other shoe falls.
Let's Make a Deal OK, I have to admit it: When I go down to the local Chrysler dealership later this week to get the annual safety tags on our farm truck, I will be sorely tempted to buy an SUV. Decent mileage, and low interest rates aren't the only things weighing on me: So are reports that "Chrysler dealers scramble to unload vehicles." --- Figure it's best to make that trip with only my drivers license and the safety check fee. The rest of the wallet needs to stay home, LOL. --- No, thinking about an SUV here in the East Texas outback is not a bad thing. We don't have too much in the way of public transport, except a pair of comfortable walking boots. And there's a report today that says 'green' transport - as in public transportation systems - may not be so green after all. Oh: they mention SUV's may not be all that bad, after all.
Besides, where am I going to put a few bales of hay in a Prius? I could probably get four in thge back of a Durango, if need be. Prius sales are down 45% this year in the US, but still doing well in Japan.
Gender Picking Here's one that says "Gender test spurs abortion fears." Been there, done that. But look: when my kids were born it was handy knowing the sex of the kids in advance. Rooms were painted appropriately and the clothing could be bought in advance. Seems to me that's useful stuff to know ahead of time, although it does maybe siphon off a little bit of surprise.
Skeptical Computing Department "Microsoft could cut Windows 7 list price to $100" says a ComputerWorld report.
Elsewhere I see that W-7 won't be out until October 22, or so. No hurry there.
But what I find myself wondering is this: I still have an XP machine that is screaming fast and although the Vista 'aero' graphics are maybe a little softer on the eyes, and the UAC feature has been a mixed blessing, I wonder what would be the point of upgrading?
Not that I won't do it...just not sure that more sidecars and widgets are going to improve my life much. When my son was down visiting he asked me to make his computer run faster and I did the half dozen things anyone can do to speed up their computer:
Once I did that to his machine (XP pro) it was screaming fast, too.
Install and use automatic backup scheduling, and guess what? Get job done and then pour coffee and head for sunrise on the deck with the cats. --- Got up at 3 AM today to take G-2 to the airport, so right about now, a snack and the pillow sound like dandy things... see you in the morning unless be stuff happens. Shouldn't though: Summer's supposed to be lazy-time..
Monday Morning Sales Meeting If you haven't seen it yet - and it fits fine with last week's Peoplenomics report' - you might play "Mad Avenue Blues' at your Monday morning sales meeting. (video). A take-off on Don McLean's oldie "American Pie"...
A little reality, a little humor. And a whole lot of truth to deal with....
Monday Morning Advisory - Dow Changes This morning's report should be posted about the usual time. I have to run to the airport to drop my visiting son off so he can catch a 5:30 AM plane back to Seattle.
Been great having him visit for the past week. Target practice, working on a 33' high lift trimming trees, working on the well drilling, and the list went on and on. Great time and then a dinner last night of crab, steak, big salads...oh my. Anyway, been working for about a half hour now getting things ready for the week.
On the way back from the airport, I'll be trying to figure out what the addition of Cisco and Travelers will do to the Dow, but I think the change-out had something to do with last week's 263 point rally.
Last week's report is located here or here, so if you're needing an 'urban fix' hang in there until 8 - may be a few minutes late even then because the high lift rental folks will be picking it up and it's polite to help loading it back on the trailer.
Say, you know if you ever get tired of trading and doing something boring in the city, playing on a scissor lift is just hella-good fun. Yee haw!
Back sooner than....
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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if you doubt it.
.
may be worth a read, too.
