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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday May
30, 2009
07:
55 A CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Dizzying Glitter - Options School Sure glad I'm not writing Saturday columns any more - ;-) But as "Gold futures close in on $1,000 mark" and the "Silver marks biggest monthly gain in 22-years" I can't resist. Hooray for the metals! Yee Haw!
The cartoon over at Jim Sinclair's JSMineset.com site says it all. $1,650 is being eyed first - and rumor is there's talk among the metals investors that this run might get to $3,000 an ounce for gold. My own thinking is that if that were to happen, silver might pop to somewhere north of $50-$60... --- "Coming out!" Ah, the sound of the croupier in Lost Wages, or more recently Lost Dreamland, as the shooter at the craps table prepares to try his luck once again. And yep, these next couple of weeks, that's me holding the dice. Except, it's not really dice. It's three commodity options on Silver - and they're $20 calls which expire June 25th, or so.
Not that I plan to make a lot of money on them - but the rally in gold and silver this week has certainly given me hope that they'll come home 'in the money."
Most people don't play options the way I do - which is why so many people have more money than me. Yet, properly (and dare I say conservatively) done, options can dramatically increase your investment returns. Might be a good time to read a book on options, regardless of whether you have ever played before, since there's a chance that as the second big leg down in Depression Two shows up over the fall, that you may wish to consider - just tossing out an idea here and NOT pedaling investment advice - that you consider hedging stock positions.
One way it can be done - just to give you an example - might be to write a covered call option on shares of stock you own. Say I had 100-shares of GE that closed Friday at 13.45 and that I was planning to unload between in October. At today's prices, that would be $1,345 for a hundred shares Friday.
GE has options that expire in September - so that fits with our time frame. Then I go to the options pricing for September call options and find the $15.00 call options which are shown for a dime here under the symbol GEWIH.X. If you're new to options, you have to mentally multiply that 75¢ times 100 to get the pricing.
We'll ignore commissions here in this example, but the idea is that you sell this 'covered call' - meaning you own actually stock to back it up (uncovered calls can be the quick road to the poorhouse).
Now let's explore three possible outcomes as to how this would work out come the third Friday in September when the September options are squared up.
Bottom line is that you get to either a) walk out of the Casino at Friday's price, or b) since you weren't going to sell the stock until October anyway (based on your chart work, or because you're a delusional crazy person) and bet that it will go up between when the option expires and when you bail out of the stock.
Obviously, if GE goes down to $11.45 ($1,145 account value of your 100 shares) you're still going to book a loss. But, it will be a smaller loss.
And if you're really adventurous, you could write a covered put option - which is the reverse of the call option scenario...and potentially getting another $X if you can find the right greater fool at the right price.
Like I say, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - think of it as the urging you to further your investment perspectives a bit.
Oh...and if Silver makes a moon shot to $22? Each of my silver options in the commodity market will be worth $3 per ounce since I own $20 calls and silver commodity options control the gain/loss on 5,000 ounces of silver. So the math would be $3.00 times 5,000 ounces ($15,000) and since there are three options in play, the possibility of $45k is on the table. If silver were to spike to $25 over the next couple of weeks, it's party time since I'd scrape $75K off the table, but that's just wishin' & dreamin' stuff. Trader juice, though.
Probably won't happen, but the same concept of writing options that I explained with GE stock works in commodities, too. Which is why even if gold & silver might seems like boring metals that don't return a dividend or grow based on innovation, yada yada, the folks that hold them can (and many do) sell put and call options. Beats whatever the local bank pays in the way of interest, which is a joke.
To guys like me? It's a chance to every once in a while take a little back from the casino.
Maybe...just maybe. But for a sophisticated investor, all that glitters is not gold. It's options. --- Oh, may not be just silver and gold going moon-ward. Have a look at the "Terrible outlook for 2009 global wheat output. As soon as we get to the top of the metals run, I'm planning to roll into grains for the late fall period since that will drive the spike in food prices we're expecting concurrently with the dollar collapse.
Great! I'd just get to the point where I can serious money only to find it will take a wheelbarrow to get through the supermarket checkout line. Oh well...WTH. That's the times the garden is for.
Banks That Suck... ...may be about to find that the FDIC is imposing limits on the interest that can be paid to depositors. But Wait! Doesn't that just about insure they will fail - given that they need to pay competitive rates to attract depositors? Now you know why they don't ask the People's Economist about these matters. --- Maybe that's because the FDIC didn't post any bank closures on its web site Friday after the market close this week. Maybe we'll get back to our two-a-week average next week? Guys on vacation, or something?
Radio Appearance Note KLBJ / OneRadioNetwork @ 6 PM tonight. Just for an hour. Patrick Timpone's second hour guest? My commodity guy - J.B. Slear will be on talking about the action in the metals market this week along with how his micro hydroponics project is going.
That should be pretty interesting, since Patrick has been growing veggies hydroponically at his place near Austin. He's using dilute seawater and rainwater, while JB is using a more conventional approach - should make for interesting discussion.
Oh - don't forget, it's a call-in type format, so you can hit 'em with all kinds of questions, too.
Auto Nation While there are some reports about the auto industry starting to emerge sporting headlines like "With bankruptcy looming, a new GM begins to emerge" If you believe we're anywhere near through the Second Depression, you've got to get a water filter to take out the fluoride or stop taking them blue pills.
Those of us who have taken the red pill know that things are not as they seem back in the matrix and that harder times are ahead since 1) the commercial real estate bubble hasn't even been touched yet and since by late summer, events will fall into place that will cause a collapse of the derivatives market globally (again) just in time to participate with the collapse of the dollar.
And speaking of which, you did see where the dollar fell to a 5-month low this week? --- Oh - all the hoopla about Chrysler closing dealerships? I hear from sources in the auto industry that many of the dealerships involved were owned by folks who had more than one dealership. A fair number are planning to keep all their stores open, and just bring in product through the other store's flooring plan. Gee...you mean all the big "changes" in the auto industry may be a little over-hyped? Who'da thought?
What's He REALLY Thinking? Department Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama "...assails large government role in General Motors." Oh sure, mentions the road to socialism alright. --- Oh? I'll tell you what I see: Alabama got $1.66 of federal spending (due at least in some part to Shelby's efforts) for each dollar of US income tax paid by folks in his home state according to records of the Tax Foundation data up through 2005.
Michigan - on the other hand, as of 2005, was only getting 92¢ for each dollar state residents paid in federal income tax.
You don't even want me to tell you that people in California only got 78¢ of federal spending for each buck of income taxes paid to the federales in 2005. California wouldn't even have a state deficit, I betcha if'n Golden Staters got back a full measure of what was paid.
No wonder folks don't make a big deal about this: Texas subsidized Alabama! So does California & Michigan. Of course Shelby's gonna squeal if anyone gets near his pork. (And noi wonder these numbers aren't updated annually, LOL!) --- So here's the bottom line to go ponder: If the States are all equal...shouldn't every state get the same dollars back that they ante up? Texas, where we live got 94¢ on the tax dollars paid.
Grassroots effort to keep federal taxpayer spending more directly proportionate to tax payments made, anyone? The wider the discrepancies, the more the power-hungry folks can throw their weight around...
Russians Get It Still Shelby may be partly right: I know that I've gotten a big of skepticism from center-left (politically) readers who send point pen emails for saying that in Washington, the new game is corporate socialism - where the rich get to structure laws and governance to protect their backsides while bending the rest of us over in BOHICA fashion. But you know it may be the right way to look at how events have gone in Washington when Pravda starts noticing the speed with with corporate/US Marxism has been rolling along... durn born again capitalists.
Like This is New Department "Obama offers prime posts to Top Campaign Contributors" digs a headline. Whatever! You mean like Clinton, Bush, Reagan and everyone else who has sat in the chair didn't do exactly the same thing? That's just how things work in DC...
Secrets Revealed - How Rewarding You know that a whole hard drive worth of documents from the Clintonista era in the White House has gone missing. Want to make an $50K score? Find and return it.
Hmmm, says I in my best pirate kind of voice, "Thar be something mighty fishy, 'er, matie...Argghhhh..."
Like: Truth out and that worries someone?
Discrimination on the Web? The story that "Wikipedia bans Church of Scientology" members from editing entries brings up an interesting concept: Doesn't this set a precedent where Wikifolks could ban other religious groups from editing? Geez - Middle East political entries would all go, LOL. 'Nother one of them red pills, please....
Making Their Marks See where Germany is planning big government spending cuts and may ban deficit spending?
That gives me an alternative idea where to park a couple of bucks for the coming fall melt-down if we can speak Swiss Franc-ly.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: With 'Tune Out' Elaine went to town on Friday for a supply run and happen to go through the checkout at Wal-Mart. The girl at the counter seemed to pay no attention to her pleasantries, which struck her as odd. So Elaine sp0oke up a bit louder.
"Excuse me, I was asking you if people come through check-out lines and keep talking away on their cell phones?" Elaine inquired.
The answer says something about the world we live in. "Oh, I'm sorry, I thought you were on a cell phone. Yeah, people come through here all the time and with a headset on, I just tune them out. I hate it."
Seems to me there's a very interesting aspect of the "duality" meta layer of the predictive linguistics going on here, one that Elaine's check-out experience brought into clear enough focus that we were talking about it at 4:45 AM today.
'On the one hand we have a society which is trying to retribalize - people are trying to get hooked up with other similarly thinking people. Yet, on the other, there's been a huge spike up in something which I'd label "Rudeness Factor/Tune-Out Factor at the the same time.
Cell phones are pushing a new kind of unsustainable connectivity. When the dollar collapses (this late fall into mid 2010) and when the cost of energy is so high that power systems fail we'll all be reconnecting with people in front of us since our virtualized world's gonna be in trouble without power.
Just something to think about next time your stick a Bluetooth device in your ear and ignore people around you.
Peoplenomics: Who Needs Advertising? Working on the question "Is Advertising Outdated?" for this weekend's subscriber report. Seems yes, advertising really is a tax on everything we consume and yes, the world may be past the window where advertising made sense from a resource standpoint......
Around the Ranch: Clean Up Day With my son coming down for a visit Monday - where I intend to work his you-know-what off on big projects - I decided it was time to really clean out my shop on Friday. Put up some new wire-rack shelving and oh boy! Place looks like a cross between a Lowes and AutoZone with a hefty helping of Sherwin-Williams, a machine shop, and a cabinet-making shop.
Might even get my central vacuum system installed today...although that'd be pushing it. Still, having a neat shop is its own curse. Sure I can find the tools quicker, but dang, do I really want to mess it up again?
See you Monday. If I'm staring at the shop floor then, still debating this question, say something that will jar me back into the present. Something like "Gold & silver are trading now...."
Yup, that'd do it, I reckon. --- Send lunatic fringe rants, ufo reports, thousand dollar bills, and huckleberry pies to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Peoplenomics Nothing To Fear But History This week my report will focus on a couple of historical points which folks seem to overlook. One is the comparison of bank failures in the 1930's to bank failures of the present day (Oh, and it's worse, BTW than the Great Depression already even if you don't count the latest three closures last week) and the other is the 500-year 'hemisphere cycle' of history. So get out your calculator and let's see what's hidden in plain sight: Depression Two is now well underway; albeit cleverly hidden in plain view for any thinking person to see...
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Pass It Around UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help. But don't stop now. Tell all your friends to wander by for an odd mixture of common sense economics, humor, preparedness and a side order of ...well, weird. Click here for a tool that may help.
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday May 14, 2009 Psst! Want a Car Negotiator? I didn't mean to start of what should be happy friday as a grouch, so if surly, sour, and real bothers you, go hit some infotainment site. I'm in a grouchy mood. Why? You wanna know why? I'll tell you why...
The headlines are pretty grim around the GM story. "GM suppliers face new threat as bankruptcy looms for Automaker" reports Bloomberg this morning. And it looks like it could be filed as early as Monday.
Now, I'll tell you what stumps me - and it has bothered me about the AIG deal, too. When the public puts in piles of dough - and in GM's case, you and me put up the dough - and in any other kind of company I've ever read about, that would buy us (taxpayers) control of the Board of Directors who in turn call the shots in concert with the CEO, right?.
I usually won't go name-calling. I usually try to stay above such trivialities and leave that to the overly rabid right. But just between you and me, if a company's board of directors oversees a decline of stock price from over $38 a share to just over a buck at the close yesterday, should they...you know...be replaced?
Oh sure, I know what the excusifications will be - "Oh these guys all know the car industry" might be proposed. Oh? How many billions have they lost again? They don't know jack.
"Oh, we want to preserve stability" might be another. Yeah, like tell that to the millions impacted by their wisdom and who are taking gunpoint vacation time this summer because the company has been run into the ground.
I don't know why the government doesn't just come in and sweep it clean. Down here in East Texas, $70-billion confers serious ass-kicking rights. But not so, apparently, in 'politically correct land' inside the Beltway. Are you kidding?
For the roughly $70 billion plus this steaming lump is going to cost us all (roughly $228.76 for every man, woman, and child in America, by the way), can we please - pretty please with sugar on it - find a new group of Deciders in the board room; people with vision. Ever hear of a concept called 'getting ahead of the curve' instead of being run over by it?
Because the folks who build the cars aren't to blame for GM's failure. It's an outmoded, heavy into denial decision-making process and upper management style that has failed and I want no part of my $228.76 that I've got as skin in this game going in any form - options, stock, travel, or cash - to the people who didn't see it coming and haven't 'gotten it' since the rice burners came to America 40 years ago and kicked our ass.
Like I said: I won't name call here, but look up the Greek word "idios" in the dictionary and read on a ways from there. You following me?
At current prices, I figure I own 200-shares of GM - and do everyone in America. --- As I've said before, the fact that GM isn't looking at a whole inside-out change to something like Harley-Davidson's org chart and ethics, dims my faith in the country's future, not to mention what democracy puts in office in terms of 'best and brightest' may not be that.
I may be a small-time consultant, but look at the motivation and strategy guys like Evan Carmichael come up with as building blocks for success at Harley:
Think more focus could have helped GM if they'd gotten massively proactive? Until recently you know, reports are the GM Board was meeting once a month. Now at least, they are meeting several times a week. Better late than never? I won't touch that bet.
May I make a modest suggestion to the Obama car trouble team and the GM board? Find the "designated smart guy" inside of Harley Davidson and get his butt on the next plane to Motown. Is he there yet? Then resign.
Oh, and tell those people in Washington I want my share certificates for both AIG and GM. Don't like holding things in 'street' name. I know how that works., LOL.
Sound far out? Not as far out as this "Germany calls on Clinton to resolve GM fight. "
Selling Green I see where Nancy Pelosi has time to be in China talking to kids about the need to go green.
WTH? Don't we have a few more pressing issues that demand action here in the USA? I mean GM's about to go toes up, we're a couple of months out from the commercial real estate meltdown and she's talking global warming on what sounds like a Gore-Lite tour in a country which is already not very trusting of us since our dollar's tanking sooner than later (which is why gold is up today, BTW).
Glad I don't live in her district, for damn sure. No, instead I live in the district of a poster-boy for the credit card industry, but that's another rant for another day.
Might I ask that Ms Pelosi come back to America and get to work on headlines like "Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more read ink"?
USA Today figures the US federal government debt is $546,668 per household. Oh? Does $211,068 per person feel any better?
I'm ticked and I want the 'old ways' gone NOW. But I ain't your problem Madam Speaker. Nope. Your problem is that you ain't 'getting it' about how mad the average American is and since the Bush administration drove the country into the front of this Depression, 5.7 million people have lost their jobs and there are right now - today - nearly 14 million people unemployed. That's your problem right there. That and pitchforks.
So let me ask again more politely: Madam Speaker: What the hell are you talking to school kids in China for? Who bought your plane ticket, anyway?
NK's Newest Another day, another missile - and this one with enough range to get to most of South Korea from the North. The West has raised its alert status to Defcon 2 in the region - just short of going into butt-kick mode.
Iran's Troubles Iranian media are reporting 19 people killed in an apparent suicide bombing at a Shi'ite mosque in Iran today. No, Israel is not their only problem.
That "New Russia" Turns out, figures Amnesty International that its still a place where dissent is still stifled, there are racist attacks, and substandard justice. Come on! With an old KGB boss still pulling the strings behind the nominal president, what were you expecting? Marin County?
Army Recruiting Rebecca Price, cartoonist extraordinaire over at www.toon-republic.com has been eyeing increased military recruiting in public schools lately with more than a bit of suspicion:
Yeah, forget my motto "What this country needs is a good 5-cent high..." No way! What we really need is another war - yeah, that'll fix everything. Puff up the market, print up some more debt. you bet'cha.
Hey! Where's my GM & AIG shares?
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Coping: A World Software Preview! Before I turn you loose on the English language first release of new software here, you need to go to 'cookie school'. So put on your thinking cap (or pour another cuppa bean and let me fill you in...
I went to 'cookie school' on Thursday morning - in the form of a conference call with the CEO and CTO of www.maxa-tools.com - makers of the German cookie-catching software that I've spoken so highly of because they are one of the few groups in the whole world that really 'get it' when it comes to cookies.
Cookies, if you are not a whiz at computing, are little snips of computer code that allow a web site to 'remember' who you are. Normally, when you come to UrbanSurvival.com you won't have a cookie 'set'. However, on occasion, as when I put a link to an Amazon book that I recommend, the code that points you to a particular book Amazon sells will include a code that says "Aha! This book purchase was referred to us by George Ure's web site, so we will pay him a commission of 8¢ (or whatever, depending on book price) as an advertising referral fee.
This is standard practice on the 'net - and probably 99% of the ads that you see around the margins of this website, or that, contains a cookie. OK? Simple enough so far.
But there are many different kinds of cookies. For example, if you hit the Maxa-Tools page yesterday, you may have noticed that what kind of browser you were using was noted - along with your IP address and an approximate physical location.
A lot of people just hit the 'delete cookies" when browsing, say in Explorer 8.0 and think that when they fire off Foxfire - or some other browser - that they are then able to have a little more anonymous surfing experience. Well, hate to tell you this, but....
No.
There are two broad classes of cookies: Those that are browser dependent, and those which are not. And the latest in the 'cookie wars' is the increasingly widespread use of browser-independent cookies are the ones to be ultra-aware of because if you think you have a clean machine - you're probably very wrong..
Maxa-Tools has provided us with a free demo which you're welcome to try - and even though the free demo version won't remove all the browser-independent cookies (they need to be compensated for their development work, after all) even the free version of their Cookie Manager is usually an eye-opener for people who (wrongly in most cases) think that a combination of pop-up blockers and fire walls software plus regular updates from an antivirus program will result in 'safe' computing. Nope, sorry, world don't work that way.
So here's the download link for the free demo:
www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
When the program pops up, save the executable file on your computer, then run it, and that installs the free/demo version of their Cookie Manager. If you want to buy the full-up Pro version (which I use), you'll see a link in the upper right corner where you can upgrade - it's only $30 and in the interest of disclosure, yes I get some compensation if you buy it. Web sites don't operate free, as you should already have figured out.
In the interest of really knowing about cookies - even if you don't want to take Cookie Manager for a spin (why you'd pass up being the first on the block to have the program since the demo version is free is beyond me, but let's just suppose you're an idiot) at least click here to read the 21-page white paper on cookies and how they're used (and abused) on the web.
Why am I a fanatic about cookie control? Lots of reasons, including hard drive space. From the Maxa-Tools white paper:
OK, that's one part of it: Overhead in terms of disk space and potential for speed loss of my machines which I keep in Formula one racing condition as best I can.
The second part has to do with the kind of tracking information about me. There is so much value to 'consumer research' outfits that they will sometimes go so far as to provide free hosting to a high traffic site - or at least pay pretty good - so they can harvest consumer information like where you've been on the net, and maybe infer (based on your cookies) something about you.
One tip: Before you go to a new site, clear all your unwanted cookies. Then go to a new site - then hit the refresh button in Cookie Manager - that will show you what was set on the way in - then put in the IP of some known clean site and hit refresh again to see if cookies were set as you left.
So there you have it. Cookie School and a tool to fight back with, unless you like wandering around the net with your cookies showing. -- Enjoy! --- Update: Oh, someone asked about compatibility: Yes, of course, Cookie Manager works with MS Internet exploder, Firefox, Opera, and Safari. Just for good measure, Windows 7, too.
Come on - if you hadn't figured it out from my hanging with a guy who turned the internet into a rickety time machine, this oughta be a major clue that I don't hang with folks who don't know their stuff, 'K?
F-35 Recheck Remember yesterday I was talking about that F-35 video which some in the conspiracy crowd were touting as 'evidence' that the US already has anti-gravity technology?
Laughs on them because one reader got it as "...it is a scenery from a game named Battlefield 2. on the screen are parts of the HUD visible..."
But wait! Is the laugh really on them? Remember the predictive linguistics are talking about UFO's and secrets revealed along this Spring and over summer into fall. And what's this? "Roswell Debris Confirmed as Extraterrestrial: Lab located, Scientists named" says UFO Digest. Maybe wanna hold that laugh for a while. --- Now that swine fluage has disbanded the Tea Parties (fear of public assembly - and it turned out to have short-term taken some of the air out of the Tea Party sails, I'm waiting for the next republicorp move. How about an ebook like "Hillary and the Greys"? That oughta harmonize with someone...
Thursday May 28, 2009 Collapse of Globalism Marches On Since we're now past the current delivery month for the precious metals, they seem ready to continue their advance this morning. Reason? Collapse of paper assets, which will pick up again in terms of public visibility in August - see the announcement about the web bot project returns retooled in the "Coping" section following this report.
You'll remember last week (or was it the week before?) I posted the declines noted in container cargo traffic - mostly from Asia - that was being reported by West Coast ports like Long Beach, L.A. and the Port of Tacoma. A couple of readers have sent along a link to the recent story at the "Foreign Policy" web site which goes to the same 15-20% declines in trade which the container numbers have been telling us.
The latest problem to come waltzing in is the "Treasury selloff spiking interest rates". The problem the Fed and Treasury face - very broadly - is how to push enough money into the economy such that consumers will go back to their old habits of [excessive] consumption which is needed to pull the economy out of a second Depression spiral. What seems to be missed is that as long as the Fed's Consumer Debt (called 'credit if you're on the taking end of the stick) is in decline, the economic condition of the country will continue falling.
The OPEC'ers met today and reportedly, at least per the Saudis, they are not dropping - nor are they increasing oil output. Seems likely to me that they recognize just how damn fragile the global economy is right now (duh) and that anyone who changes anything in the way of policy will be blamed for the next major move down, which,; if you've been following the libretto around here, will be the derivatives beginning their blow-up in August, triggering the collapse in the commercial real estate paper, which will push the government into more interventionism in early fall, which in turn will cause business to stop trusting contractual arrangements between one another (fear of interventionism for the public 'good') and so business just sort of grinds to a halt with a quizzical looks of "WTF?" on their brow.
Oh, and while all this is going on, the banks are sitting on loan money because they can see that interest rates are going to break higher, too. So why make a low interest rate loan now, when you'll be able to loan the money out at a much higher rate of return in a little while as 'street' rates start going up? --- There's a well-hidden - or at least not very widely appreciated underlying dynamic that has changed the way how Depression Two is rolling out. Something my friend The Bond Dude figures it is due to a major change in the way "relief" worked in the first Depression and how it's working here in the Second Depression.
I'll sort of paraphrase his view because it's important: "In the last depression, government had something called 'relief' and do you know what the modern analog to 'relief' is? "
I stumbled around a bit because there are several candidates... Eventually he got tired of waiting and said "Credit cards! And since the credit card companies are going around slashing credit limits and jacking up rates, they have effectively be turning off relief to people who had been using credit cards to buy food, try to keep up on house payments and so on. You know what happens when youi shut off 'relief' in a depression, right?"
I may not be the brightest guy in econ, but I've got the picture.
The other key thing that is so confusing to people who don't yet see this as the "Second Depression" is something I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend as the "Pocket Effect."
You see, when the Depression caused bank failures in the 1930's, the losses were both immediate and personal. There was about $3.6 billion in personal savings that just went "Poof!" from 1929 till the early months of 1933. Got that? On a per capita basis I penciled it out for subscribers as about $481 per capita for the whole country on a constant dollar basis.
Now here's the key thing about the current crisis which you need to know, whether you subscribe or not:
Getting it? Instant personal losses in the early 1930's and this time around it's coming as a 'slowly boiling frogs" event, such that most frogs - like that guy in the other cubicle at work, won't get it and will be in denial about things until they're served up for dinner at the bankster's table. Metaphorically, of course.
The actual 'serving' will be the surrender of ownership in real estate and savings to the banker class.
There. Don't you feel better now that you understand the dynamics of this?
Taxman's Blues Reports that the IRS is seeing a 34% drop in tax collections ought to drive the budget projections for the country further into the ditch as the year goes along - compounding in interesting ways (he said punfully) the host of other cards that are collapsing on this house we built on flipping and pimping paper.
Outcome? I would expect to see the idea of a national sales tax to come around again. I like sales taxes in some ways because they tax consumption and leave savings alone. Just me...Or, a flat rate 10% income tax, that'd be fine, too.
But here's another perfect example of what the economic system is in utterly, complete blow-up mode: Suppose we had a simple 10% income tax, or a simple 5% national sales tax.
Let me ask you what would we do with all the unemployed accountants that would produce? Do you know how much dough gets spent for both humans and companies to figure out how to interpret and weasel on the existing confusing and sometimes contradictory collage of rules?
Upside? Uh...how about TurboTax would become a three line program?
Durables Improve Not all the news is bad, howsoever. Census says durable goods improved a tad.
Here, Hold This Bag Department Oh-oh: "GM's 'main street' bondholders would be losers, lawyer says" as GM wanders toward a bankruptcy where you and I would own up to 69% of GM.
Here I flip into my economic fundamentalist/People's Economist mode: Interest is paid for two things: changing purchasing power of the underlying money involved and RISK! Damn, people don't want to ever make bad bets, but that's what RISK is all about. Chance of LOSING. Get it?
Sorry if you get stuck holding the bag - it hurts - but that what RISK is: Possibility of LOSS!
@#$%^&*&^%$# Didn't anyone go to school but you and me?
Dancing Mountains, Rising Oceans Big one on the dance floor today: 7.1 in Honduras this morning. --- A course, seeing the future coming is a lot easier, especially when one has a 'rickety time machine' at their disposal. And speaking of Dancing Mountains and what have you:
Uh huh. Not surprised.
Not Enough Criminals Oh, not here in the US mind you, but in the Netherlands. A reader note sets it up:
Ah, to have such problems in California, huh? Well, here's my take on it, since I've got two competing theories. First is that the Dutch don't make private drug use a crime and since it's not, people aren't going to hard drugs as much and gee, youi think that may reduce crimes like burglary and hold-ups? See much crime comes from drugs. So if you have lots of hard and illegal drugs, you can make a business out of it - as we have done in the US for years. On the other hand, if folks can just be left alone, some might go toke up at a coffeehouse, or in private, but who cares - long as it's private. My competing theory is that criminals are hydrophobic and since the sea levels are gonna rise this century, the criminals have already headed for higher ground - rat's jumping a sinking ship, so to speak. Pick the theory that suits you.
Monkey See Department The headline that "Creation of 'GM' monkey heralds health revolution" modest suggests the UK's Independent. And you got programmed thinking 'monkey business' was a bad thing.
Nope: coming soon you should be able to buy a small monkey that will glow greenish when exposed to ultraviolet light! Hell, I've been sitting out here waiting for decades for this breakthrough. At last, a glow in the dark pocket monkey. I can die a happy man.
Not.
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Coping: With Knowing the Future OK, we're out gathering data again. The web bot project is back with a retooled approach in the software, a refined lexicon thanks to some contract language work down in Poland, and a host of internal reorganization changes that should allow the project to continue as long as the Internet is functioning, which is at least into early 2010 as things seem now.
Since the end of 1309, Cliff's been getting kicked in butt so much to continue the project that it seems Universe will not leave him alone until this new way of looking at the future is back in business - and much more accessible and at a lower price point than previously. The way this will get done without driving the chief time monk over the edge of insanity is a lot more process automation, bringing another person on staff and moving Igor to an unspecified location somewhere in Washington state next to fiber which will cut down on data collection costs. They're still not giving away full T-1's out in data land and, just for example, a T-1 off the ranch here would be up around 2-large a month because my understanding is that I'd have to pay mileage charts to Dallas.
So with Igor getting situated (which sounds better than Igor's off getting wired, which he does anyway) the target for the release of the first updated weekly report will be out hopefully right around the solstice - which for the astronomically challenged looks like June 21, 2009 at 1:45 A.M. EDT this year.
The delivery method will change, too. Managing subscribers has been a challenge for Cliff - setting up passwords and putting linguistic watermarks into reports, so as to tell where they are going and who has screwed with no reporting rules. So ahead, instead of a web site to sign into - which seems to lend itself to having content posted around the internet,, the new reports which will be out on a weekly basis, will be downloaded from a content distribution system. The download will be of a copy-protected (and maybe no printing) PDF file which although it may not be perfect, should cut down on some of the reposting. --- The reposting of data and discussion about the project will also be revised such that Cliff will set up a forum for discussion within one of his domains. The reason is that should provide simple domain-level filtering.
As you know, if you're out trying to infer something about the future by looking for language shift on the internet, the posting of snippets from previous reports sets up a kind of slow-motion feedback loop...and that's back because it can (ok, does) tend to make the model go into a regenerative feedback mode.
But the best part of this whole thing is the price point. It's been realized that an initial 'buy-in' of $270 for the first run - and then $70 per run after that. Well, that was fair, since there was so much time spent on filter development, lexicon tuning, and line costs. But, despite bringing a full-time person on board to help, it looks like the line charge savings will allow the next report series to be bought on a per week basis at $10 per segment.
To get acquainted with what's out there - and to give you some hints as to what day in August the rest of the financial derivatives meltdown begins, you may which to purchase the most....
Current Report: The most current report (as a
series) is the 1309 sequencing that can now be purchased online
for $36 by clicking here.
Last, but not least, we're thinking about pulling ALL past reports together along with some narrative - maybe a couple of chapters - in book form. I've suggested we pin a title on it like "Once Upon a Time Machine" and sell it for $150.00. It would be everything a researcher could want in order to test to see how much above 'pure chance' the technology is in its current and past iterations.
Like the new reports, it would be in .PDF form (still discussing things like should it print, and so on) but it would be a monster of likely well over a thousand pages of reports going back to since this project ramped up in the spring/summer of 2001 - which is when we got the first public HIT where a major "tipping point/ world changes here" came out of the linguistic soup about 60-days before 9/11. And sure as hell, it did.
You may also want to visit the HalfPastHuman web site. There, among other things, you can see where Cliff will be showing up in radio interviews, the next one being on the Jeff Rense Show tonight. --- All this seems to be evolving because for whatever reason, the Universe seems to want a lot more people to get the occasional 'heads up' about coming events. Not that all predictions will be as spectacularly correct as the May 2008 "wedding quake" forecast. Or the '300-dead/land driven back to a previous age' stuff ahead of the 2004 Banda Ache quake. Or any of the other 'hits' - like the year-in-advance warnings about the October 2008 financial meltdown, which seems set to be eclipsed in magnitude this fall and will build off events in August. Gee, can hardly wait for that.
The work will still likely be presented as a work of fiction and heavily disclaimed as always because we would never be so silly as to claim and [knowledge] of the future. Just that from time to time we get whiffs and a sense of how it's going to arrive, and much of that could benefit regular humans.
We also know that there are other projects that are working on linguistically deriving the future - and have been for a long while, ever since we stumbled into the Chinese "Caldron: [ting] project which was doing much larger samples and emailing them off to a server in China.
All of which means there's some level of personal risk for Cliff in this, since getting word out about the future is something which heretofore has been done only at fairly high price points by academics and governmental types - and with some success, we expect.
Knowing the future presents an interesting problem, when you think about it, for governments and the PowersThatBe.
Suppose, for example, that at a very high-level some shadowy association of rich-folks - which means those with a bent toward accumulation of personal power - had developed (or been handed) a way to look at the future. Maybe through a conjuring or ritual sacrifice method - who knows?
Would it be fair for the mass of humans, who are generally well-intended 'go along to get along' types, to have some fair warning of what darker forces might be up to?
Perhaps.
So come the solstice, the predictive linguistics are coming back (if everything pulls together on schedule).
The project will move along, after substantial retooling, not motivated by power/greed/money/ego gratification. But more as an early warning system such that we can perhaps get a just slightly better than pure chance would suggest, heads up on what's in the future.
Against those who would just as soon this project doesn't move along - and there are some, believe me - we do understand the ultimate self-defense weapons should interference in this little humanitarian project come along:
Open source.
HyperChroniacs Come Next What's a hyperchroniac? Er...that'd be a person who is undergoing a major change of time perceptions. All part of the surreal aspects of life that we're getting ready to launch into the nonlinear portion of as we come along toward 2012. And email to time monk central:
New word - sorry to lay it on you like this, but start watching for time distortions of a very personal nature... if you come down with it, you can call yourself a hyperchroniac. --- I am working on my novel 'Dimension barrier" as fast as I can. You starting to see why?
Maxa-Tools' Newest Speaking of things 'computery', I'm getting a briefing from my friends in Germany where www.maxa-tools,com's "Maxa Cookie Manager comes from. If you want to click here, you can see how much information about you 'leaks' on a test of tracking back your IP address.
Next week, Maxa-Cookie Manager Pro will be released - and I am really looking forward to it.
Computer Niche Marketing You see the headline that "GTA goes gay"? Handbags for handguns?
F-35 Video So I assume here that you know a little something about the F-35 Lighting II? It's "...a fifth-generation, single-seat, single-engine, stealth-capable military strike fighter, a multirole aircraft that can perform close air support, tactical bombing, and air defense missions."
If you get an email with a an attachment called "Airplane_F-35_Vertical_Flip.wmv you might want to watch it. Looks to be some video shot on an aircraft carrier...
I don't know if this is 'real" video or photoshopped, but darn cool. Fifth generation? Hmmm...
And I assume youi already know about watching the skies at night with an infrared nightvision scope because that's apparently how you can see some of the new cloaking technology?
Powerball Ticket Time to check your Powerball tickets -- if you live in South Dakota, because that's where one really frigging lucky person pulled out a $232-million dollar jackpot. I'll not go back to suggesting you confine your gambling to auto and financial sector options if you really have money to burn. Wednesday May 27, 2009 Sorry About Coffee Not to begin at the end here, but have you been watching the December coffee prices over on the commodity side of things? (Link to a chart here). Back in March at the life of contract lows, coffee was under $113. Now, as the close yesterday, it was up over $140. I may not be completely awake yet, since caffeinated miracle juice is just now going to work, but that works out to pretty close to 24% inflation. Oh, did I mention that's for six months?
Let's see how that would annualize, shall we? OK, forget it if you're not up to it. We'll say something over 50% if the rate of increase were to continue. And there are lots of other commodities which are showing pretty hefty implied inflations.
So much so, in fact, that Dr. Marc Faber of the "Gloom Boom, & Doom Report" is telling Bloomberg that US inflation will approach Zimbabwe levels. Unfortunately, I can't fault his logic.
When a country gets into the position that the US is now in - namely buying its debt from itself to keep that dollar from tanking - it's a sure sign that big changes in the value of the dollar are ahead.
While its true that gold took a bit of a beat down on Tuesday, a simple look at the calendar will explain what was going on: It was end of contract time and it's normal lately to see prices drop around delivery time. Does that mean inflation risk is gone? You are kidding, right?
Then there's the little matter of Consumer Confidence which came out Tuesday higher than expected. Want a simple explanation of what's going on right now? The strong hands may be selling to the weak.
If you look at a three-month chart over at Yahoo Finance, you'll see that 8,574 is the overhead resistance level. About the least surprising outcome for the market here over the next week or two - at least to my way of looking at it - would be to see a rally at the open this morning - momentum follow-through - and then a mid-session reversal as the market runs out of motivation.
Existing Home Sales are due out this morning - and these, coupled with data tomorrow on the new unemployment claims - which may be higher than anticipated - and then Friday's GDP numbers all set us up for the real biggies to come next week when we get Personal Incomes on Monday and then next Friday we see the new monthly unemployment numbers which I'm throwing a dart at 9.3% on right now.
If the home sales are good, we might get a double top off that 8,574 level. If they're bad, nervousness in general could re-enter the market; so many people have turned bullish lately (mostly without solid thinking, I'd add) that it wouldn't surprise me in the least.
There is one thing to keep an eye on, though. That's how inflation will work on the sales of American retailers. We know that retail has been having a very tough go of things, but when the figures come out be sure when you're looking at same-store sales, that you add in something for an inflation correction. I get a kick out of seeing reports like 'same-store sales are up 2%" and then when exploring the data finding that it's not been inflation corrected. So that with 2 1/2% inflation, a 2% increase in dollars handled really means on a constant-dollar basis, sales are down half a percent - that kind of thing - using imaginary numbers to make the point.
But it illustrates how most folks are led around blindly on matters about money. Scary stuff, to be sure. But, with a little deliberate and clear thinking, one can see that the only way out of this mess will be inflation - eventually - as long as the government can get its hands on paper and ink. Which is why Marc Faber's comments about Zimbabwe here may be spot on.
What'll be interesting to watch is to see how many people will be ready for it. With all the ways folks can hedge by simple means: Drive a high mileage car to keep energy costs low, plant a garden to hedge food costs, and work extra-hard to increase your chances of keeping your job if you have one - all that stuff seems to sneak up on people.
I'm always amazed by the number of folks who prepare resumes only after being fired, too. Seems we live in a reactive rather than proactive mental construct. Which, when you think about it, is why most people are where they are now. --- So we have China warning us about printing money now. The Chinese may be inscrutable, but they are not unscrewable - and since they hold oodles and piles of US paper with zeroes on it, they have every right to be concerned. Ink-think I call it. --- Up in Columbus Ohio, you can see how budgets are hemming in big cities. Columbus is looking at all kinds of cuts in their police department, just for example. No, California is not alone going to the wall in this mess. --- Oh - and the OPEC'ers want their oil to fetch $70 to $80 a barrel. Someone's got to pay for that fancy ice-skating rink in the desert and that would be...you!
Is Social Networking an "Industry"? I have to admit I am stumped why people have Facebook accounts. Oh sure, I have one, too, but I've only added a few folks I know here in East Texas - and sorry, but I don't have time to be reading up on the latest thoughts of hundreds of people. A sort of cacophony. I think I've looked at it maybe once or twice. Didn't see any particular reason to spend time there.
Russians may be smarter than me,. however, since I see where they've dumped $200-million into Facebook. But is social networking a business? I mean bigger than Starbucks, Molson/Coors, Hormel, or AMD as the NY Post graphic says? --- Remember last week I was telling you how I'd given up pinching myself and had just put a pair of ViceGrips on either arm - things were getting that crazy in the world? Today I've ordered a case of ViceGrips. Please don't send me an 'add friend' list. If I need to get hold of you I'll call or send an email. You do the same, OK?
If I want to hear snips of people's lives at random, I'll just go walk around Wal-Mart and listen to the crap people spew into their cell phones without regard to innocents abroad like me. Yeah, grouchy George. You bet.
And the Winner Is... "'Sexting' no worse than spin-the-bottle: study." And you thought the 78th Congress of the Humanities and Social Sciences would be irrelevant? Ho boy...
Text Change Operations And, you saw where "Twitter posts risks for newspapers"?
Korea's December Nukes As long as we're sitting here waiting for a possible attack by North Korea on the South in December, we might as well read about how they have apparently restarted their N-plant to make more weapons grade material.
Oh look - there goes another NK missile test.
You notice that I'm not the only one who's thinking the North will lob something south? "Russia fears Korea conflict could go nuclear..."
Iran's Nukes "Israel document: Venezuela sends uranium to Iran." Yeah...and? Remember Nigerian uranium?
"The Blob" Found Sounds like something off a supermarket checkout line tabloid, huh? But, no, it's for real. Somewhere under Nevada...
Tennessee Gun Laws Forgot to mention that folks in Tennessee have a new law that says if a person legally possesses a gun they will NOT have it seized in any period of martial law. RFO (right frigging on...) Someone learned something from KatRita, huh?
Fiddling on the Roof You see where "Obama's green guru calls for white roofs" to fight global warming? Let me reflect on that for a minute.
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Coping: With Keyboards & Computing Posture Well, I finally broke down and ordered three keyboards yesterday...since last week I was moaning about how tough it was to operate four different keyboards and have anything near repeatability in terms of typing. But, along the way, it has been a real interesting study in what's going on in the computer industry.
For one thing, a number of readers weren't listening too closely when I explained that I needed a keyboard for each of four computers because the computers were associated with different physical amenities. The audio production computer has to be plugged up with a 16-channel firewire audio console and I need to be able to plug in various production CD's and such. The ham radio computer is really a dedicated box because it has different connections: Radio control data, digital signal demodulator boxes, logging programs, and while the computer can run most of the operations, there's still a need to be physically in a specific place because the linear amplifier needs to be retuned - depending on band and frequency - and ditto for the antennas which need to be switched.
Then there's the Urban/Peoplenomics computer which is ultra-safed and backed-up with a terabyte of storage and set up just so for catching online video services and adjacent to a small HDTV to peek in on news events, plus a satellite receiver and steerable dish for overseas/foreign TV. The fourth computer - the one where the novel was being written has now been moved over to the Urban computer - since while it was nice to contemplate the idea of toting the laptop out onto the deck in the evening to continue writing there, a combination of glare, insects, and just the hassle of it all convinced me that novel-writing would be best done on this box.
Yes, I've got a KVM (keyboard, video, mouse) switch, and no, it was pretty much useless because of the need to be at a particular place with a different set of peripherals depending on task. And, it's for that reason that the 'control your PC from any internet terminal doesn't work:
So I bought three brand new - but older style - Logitech Internet Navigators keyboards. For one thing, they are cheap ($20 each, new) and for another they are white.
I don't know about you, but have you noticed that PC peripherals seem to all be black now? I don't look at the keys very often, but when I do, I like to be able to see them easily. Maybe it's a function of age, but some designer color that fades into the black keys just don't cut it in my book...so my keyboarding issue is solved.
But here's one that I picked up from a reader which I'm now
looking for - a ball-bearing scrolling wheel mouse. The
reader tells me that the Logitech MX Revolution Cordless Laser Mouse (Black)
Not to spend too much time on this topic, but since many of us are 'plugged' in for 10-14 hours a day, it seems like getting just the right keyboard and just the right mouse is worthwhile. And if you are one of those single monitor (flat-lander) kind of folks who is still trying to get used to the keyboard on your laptop - rotsa ruck.
If the keyboard isn't in your lap, I figure you're not too serious about doing a lot of work although I'm sure someone with carpal tunnel expertise somewhere is throwing rocks at their screen right now for my mentioning it: Far as I'm concerned, the desk is for holding coffee and monitors. Sometime, sit in a good, comfortable office chair for 15 minutes and sort of nod off. When you open your eyes, the first place you naturally look seems to me to be where the monitor(s) oughta go.
Holding your hands at chest level? Nope, it's a lot more comfortable while snoozing to have your hand in your lap - which is why my keyboard is there. And what's even better? Keyboard cords are long enough that you can push back your chair, put your feet up on the desk and even write in the semi-reclined position once you've got the keyboard in your lap.
Think I'm productive? Maybe. But you sure won't find me in any 'ergonomically correct" chair with no back, knees tucked under me like a bird and holding my hands at chest level. No sir, I want to be able to drift into a whatever the keyboarding equivalent would be of a somnambulistic state and let the ideas rip. With interruptions now and then for a slurp of coffee to keep me from going completely to sleep.
Speaking of computing, here's an interesting article that might show up in computer monitors someday - the how's and wherefore's of projecting images into air. Basis for Project Blue Beam and other rumored advanced military concepts? Maybe, but still would make a peachy monitor.
Changes on eBay Next time you order something on eBay from overseas, you might keep a close eye on what currency is being used. A reader sends this:
Gosh - one more thing to look at - how often does PayPal update its exchange rates? You wanna check on that and get back to us?
Downsizing Yes, I've seen the story in the LA times about how "Farms downsize to miniature cows." Won't call it a trend, though, till I see Mickey-D's with an "eighth-pounder" on the menu.
All That Glitters.... ...ain't:
Yup. Buy from reputable outfits only.
Life After EMP A reader advises that he's been doing a little research and wonders about whether mercury-based fluorescent lights might pop if there was ever an EMP attack on America. Good question. He also found some interesting gray lit stuff about how much medical equipment could fail in that kind of scenario: "Minimizing the effects of Electromagnetic Plus (EMP) on field medical equipment". Interesting read if you're in health care. If you're not, here's the bottom line: If there was ever an EMP attack on the country, don't be going getting sick...
Cobbled Nebulizer Bumped into a reader with an interesting idea: She takes inhaled meds for a lung condition but didn't want to spend the big bucks for a commercial nebulizer. Cobbled one up using a battery-powered tire pump. Still good for tires, too, she claims. That's ingenuity for you and no, that's NOT medical advice.
Meanwhile Back in the Lab Reader asks what's really going on in the lab...
I'll check with the chief time monk later on today - but he's been writing a long-term outlook of what's ahead based on the data - doing an ebook instead of the weekly ALTA reports - which should be a kick-butt thing to have on hand for long-term decision-making. And,; he's trying to get his boat done. We ought to see increased global awareness of the little 'sea level problem' popping up in media reports in the next 30-days or so.
Here at the ranch, I've got all kinds of experiments planned...but that gets to me to...
The Latest Weird Dream OK...so I get these incredibly vivid dreams. And the one yesterday morning was especially weird because in it, I see this person going through books of mine that I'm supposed to have read. One book in particular is pointed out to me as something I must read to make forward progress.
"Oh, what's that book?" I ask of this person.
"Turnbull's Calculus."
Crap. Something else to do. But, I figure it I'm having a vivid dream, and this person completely out of the blue says I need to read "Turnbull's Calculus" I figure things are about to take (another) turn for the weird in my life. I mean, it's not enough that I'm cranking out a book with the working title "Dimension Barrier".
So I pop into Amazon and find only two books with an
author mentioned by the name Turnbull. This first book which set me back
forty-odd bucks was Digital Tectonics
And then I get to the second book with an author named "Turnbull" mentioned. My jaw dropped:
Infinite-Dimensional Optimization and Convexity (Chicago Lectures in Mathematics Series)
Oh-oh. This is starting to get seriously weird. I don't know what the odds are of a) having someone/entity in a dream be sorting out books on the steps, or the odds of the book "Turnbull's Calculus" being pointed out as something that must be read, and then c) discovering a book that fits with a novel you're writing about what happens when dimensional world's collide, but around here lately, the odds became 100-percent.
This was supposed to be a simple Clive Cussler genre novel about worlds colliding. Simple, no? Now what happens? Universe wants me to bone up on calculus! Here in George Land that's just plain weird...except that I'm guessing it has something to do with the 'free energy' experiments I have been pondering or the book.
Well, like Cliff is fond of saying "Universe presents us the work to do - and then we either harmonize with that and do the work, or enter into opposition to the flow."
Yeah, yeah, fine. But calculus? Universe either has a wry sense of humor or is being just plain old mean. I sure hope its the former.
Some Statement Gotta call my commodity broker J.B. this morning and ask him what's up with my account. Instead of a usual .PDF of account balances all I got this morning was an .MP3 of a laugh track.
Tuesday May 26, 2009 Questions for Kim Jong-il Word that president Obama is eyeing the North Korea nuke blast over the weekend with 'grave concern' is hardly any surprise. The test, which is reported as about as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb in WW II, means that if coupled up with North Korea's new short-range missiles, could put South Korea - which is still technically at war with the North - under direct threat.
Oh, and just to further complicate things, North Korea is reportedly set to fire ground to ship missiles. No word on whether these will be the NK equivalent of the Sunburn missiles that Iran has reportedly installed and has aimed seaward from along its shoreline, but it would strategically make sense. --- This gets me to wondering about whether the North Koreans are playing the market around their nuclear tests. I mean think about it: The South Korean KOPSI Composite index could have been shorted at about 1,420 on Friday and the 5% drop to a session low around 1,356.23 on Monday after word of the nuke test would have been a dandy trade. Just wonder if the North is making money on their tests...and if so...how much? Seems to me that a 5% market move would have been tradable and one way to raise a little dough for missile and nuclear development. --- My consigliore noted something anomalous some number of months back - he had been surfing various discussion boards and there was a poster who sounded - by his references and writing - like he might be North Korean president Kim Jong-il. He notices these things as he's sharp as a tack.
While at first I dismissed this as unlikely, but a little further reflection on the subject has me wondering: He's certainly got the smarts to surf the net - and according to his bio he's been fluent in English since learning it in the early 1970's at the University of Malta, where he reportedly vacations now and then.
All of which is not to say that Kim Jong-il actually does surf the 'net, only to mention the possibility that a leader of any country could if so inclined go 'to the people direct' without going through the dual filters of media. In other words, what a leader like Kim Jong-il would be able to say publicly - where statements would have to be crafted this way or that, since they would be closely scrutinized for meaning by foreign governments, constituting one layer of filtering. Then the second layer of filtering would be the Western corpgov media which filters pretty much everything to fit the Western business model's interest.
On the other hand, going 'people-direct' on the internet would certainly open an interesting tack for a foreign leader to take - a sort of new benchmark in information warfare. I think of it as paradigm penetration.
A foreign leader 'going direct' would allow an exchange of views that might otherwise be filtered out.
And it would certainly help people understand why a country - in this case North Korea - is behaving in the particular way they are, building nukes and new missiles and such.
I for one would sure like to get some questions answered that seem filtered. The three most pressing might be "Why all the anger? After 50-odd years of fighting can't both sides just say "Enough is enough?"
The second question would be "So you're this 68-year old guy and you have a nuke. Knowing (as we do that at least linguistically) that you might be inclined to use it around December of this year, could you fill us in on what you expect to gain? Irradiated cities don't seem to have much commercial value at least to my way of thinking, so what would be the point? What's your long-term strategic objective or agenda here?"
The third question would be this: "To what extent - if any - has North Korea aligned itself with - or aided in any way - Islamic fundamentalists of the bin Laden stripe and do you (or have you) supply them arms and materiel?" I think a lot of folks wonder about this one.
Fourth question? Sure... "What was the real story on that 2004 "train accident" that killed or injured more than 3,000 people? What was the ultimate body count and was the explosion in any way related to military development work, as some around the net have wondered?"
Fifth question: "How much counterfeiting of US currency have you done - and how does that compare with, say, our own cost of bailing out banks by just printing up money?" --- I don't suppose that Kim Jong-il will answer - even if he does surf the net and might post now and again. But it's possible that a foreign leader could at some point decide to go 'people-direct'. Anyway, my email is george@ure.net. --- In the (Highly Unlikely) event that a response were received, I'm supposing that since this is in the news interview genre, it would not be covered by the Logan Act which...
Nope, no exposure there since there'd be no negotiating. Just reporting. --- What I'd really be interested in - and the core of future events always revolves around this - if how people with different referential frameworks deal with events. Clearly, when you're father was the president of North Korea, you've got a different referential framework than us middle class folks in the American public. What reports in the Western press seem to miss is constructing an accurate description of foreign leader's referential frameworks (worldviews) differences. News reports always seem to be so damn crisis-centered.
To the extent that global leaders evolve 'go direct' communication with the public, I think the chances of conflict avoidance could be improved. I'd note that the White House sports a Blog. But I doubt much - if any - of its content is actually created/written by the president himself.
Since there's new technology that hasn't completely made its way into politics (being slow adopters as they are...leading from behind, as it were) wouldn't it be interesting if world leaders each had a blog and only other world leaders could post to it? Boy, that would be an interesting one to follow, especially if the 'world leaders' were legit and no public posting was allowed...just the 'real deal' guys.
Sound far-fetched? Don't be so sure. Wikipedia notes that "Kim also refers to himself as an Internet expert." Like I say, an email would be appreciated and maybe an English-language blog so we can figure out what's motivating this nuke building thing besides anger?
PS: Are you still using the same proxy server in N.E. China?
Iran Ramps Up In a development which is sure to make folks in Israel rethink their 'wait till October' course, there are reports that Iran for the first time has sent a fleet of six warships into the Gulf of Aden.
Net Control The Obama administration is setting about creation of an "Internet Czar" . Fine, so long as it's not something that sets up restrictions on the 'net, but I reckon it will eventually be seen as a prelude to actual 'net controls' coming along. Can't have people being too free...just free enough, huh?
Sonia Sotomayor is said to be president Obama's pick.
Waking Up I see that WSAW.com has been tracking the "Ammunition shortage across the Badger state." Let me see, we've been covering it for three years now....
Hawaiian Hospitality in Trouble There's this "Oh-oh" story that has caused me to shelve plans to go to Hawaii this month. Course that was just one of those Orbitz pricing fantasies, anyway. But check it out: "Lei in need because of flower shortage."
Here comes the bad/terrible/appalling pun of the day: Who'd want to go to Hawaii if you can't get lei'ed?
(A rim shot and a chorus of groans follows from our studio audience...)
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Coping: Pricing Discontinuities Elaine came back from a quick (4-hour) trip into Palestine Monday with a perplexed look. "George, look at this: See this package of 50 Velcro stay-wraps at Lowes? It was $4.47....here's the receipt. But before I picked it up, I noticed that the package of 30was actually more expensive - $4.67. I asked one of the managers about it - and he sort of scratched his head and looked a bit confused by it, too..."
Elaine's one of the most careful shoppers you'll ever see. She notices details which shopping that escape most people. But, just as another for-instance, she'll notice that when an item is available at two locations in the store they may have a different price. I doubted this, once upon a time, but sure enough she's pointed out numerous examples on several occasions.
This get me to reflecting on how people have different 'shopping styles.' I have the typical engineer/left-brain ruled "Make a list and power shop it" since time is money and I'm not here to mess around. Just 'git 'er done.
Elaine's more thoughtful. For her, shopping is experiential. A symphony of choices which are to be made wisely. Faced with clothing choice, she might pick up a new top and continue shopping, only to return the top to its hanger when it occurs to her that the color of this particular top won't go with that pair of pants.
Her style of shopping allows her to spot disruptions in the flow of commerce that would normally pass me by unawares. If an item is a few cents one way, or the other, my style blows it off and gets on to the next item on my list. Hers is a much more complex decision; if an item is a few cents more do we really need it? Is there a substitute, and alternative, a different solution to the problem presented by the item's appearance on the list?
It's a small disruption in the symphony of shopping that I would likely never notice. But to her it was cacophonous, and now that she pointed it out, quite amusing. Next trip to Lowes I'll ask if they have the item in a 500 pack, which if I'm guessing the price curve implied, should be less than a buck.
Container Yourself, Redux In Monday's report I was talking about containers based on a reader question about a pile ofs them which had shown up at the Sepulveda Recreation Area (SoCal). Turns out there's a simple answer:
Wonder if they'll have a scratch & dent sale afterwards? Meantime, a fair number of readers have 'trailers are storage' stories to share...like this one:
I notice in Dallas the 9.5 foot high 'high cube' containers can be found for $2.250.
Around the Ranch: Loose Screw Department Ah,. thanks for asking, but nope, haven't gotten started on screwing down the deck yet. But a reader in Sparks Nevada (dangerous things this time up year up in the pines) asks this:
That's a pretty good idea...and it reminds me that in the latest issue of Farm Show Magazine - which is a wonderful source of ideas for home/garden/ and farmerly ideas - they had a picture of a lay down gardening rig. Picture something like a massage table (with see-through head rest) and wheels on either side and a tray so you can put plants on it. Really pretty darned neat.
I see where Farm Show has this particular article on their web site...but my favorite part of the magazine is the "Best and Worst Buys" department where people share git-down truth about various home shop and farm tools and vehicles. That's worth the price of a subscription alone.
If you're a home handyman type, you might want to also order their "Encyclopedia of Made it Myself" Ideas" - about $20 bucks by the time you get shipping in. --- Oh, and as to my weekend? Me & the Kubota put up a 16-foot by 18" high retaining wall and back-filled it in just 45 minutes.
I wonder if there's a hobby called 'speed landscaping'? There certainly oughta be - since it's we live in a country which has it's own US Lawn Mower Racing Association (USLMRA). I wonder what I could get my Husqvarna 48" rider to do the standing quarter-acre in?
Monday May 25, 2009 Remember in December: NK's Nuke Test Was that really a 4.7 earthquake in North Korea? Nope. Nuke test.
Remember the part in last week's report where I told you "Except, of course, someone who reads the data closely might infer "Gee, don't be in South Korea in December of this year...or in Isfahan in late October..."?
Well, the reason is pretty simple. In the predictive linguistics work from HalfPastHuman.com there's language around October 26th that goes to the idea of Israel attacking Iran and that, in turn, sets a clock of about 4-weeks, or so, to an attack by North Korea on South Korea using a nuke or two.
Until this morning, that sounded like a pretty far-out expectation - but there it is - and has been for a couple of months for ALTA report subscribers.
Now, it all fades into the ugly increasing likelihood of turning out pretty much that way since North Korea says today that it has conducted a second nuclear test; their first one being a little 1-kiloton test shot.
North Korea has also had another short-range missile test and that, in turn, means they have something that could be deployed on North Korean territory and still be in striking range of Seoul.
In case you're putting predictions up on the refrigerator, mark down this fall winter Big 3 as market collapse, Iran strike (and response) and NK lobbing stuff and you'll never have long fingernails again.
Not only did Asian markets decline, but if I were just guessing, I'd say that this might push some folks to put a little more money into gold.
Oil to Move Up? That's a reasonable thing to expect in most 'normal times" (remember them?) but it may - or may not - actually work out that way. Yes, "Nigerian militant group attacks major oil pipelines" but there's so much crude sloshing about the world right now that it's going to take some time to work through the inventory...so whether this does - or does not - move prices will be at least interesting to watch. --- Speaking of commodities, keep a watch on soybeans - possible precursor to our hyperinflation due when the Dollar is devalued overseas and our price of all things imported goes through the roof..
Gold? Silver? I'm guessing $3,000 within a year for the one, while the other ought to break $100. Just a guess. Not that their value ever changes, but boy, can the amount of paper to trade for them ever go up.
Mass Layoffs Improve But not by much in the latest mass layoff report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics:
As I mentioned to Peoplenomics.com subscribers in this week's report, how the summer months appear in this chart will likely depend on how all those GM workers who are getting a nine-week mandatory time out are counted...if at all...
Global Riot Watch Rioting has broken out in the Indian state of Punjab following the killing of a religious leader in Vienna. --- India is also dealing with a cyclone - their version of a hurricane - so no lack of things to report on for India's media.
Priceless Thanks to last week's site issues, I didn't get the Rebecca Price cartoon of the week from www.toon-republic.com posted. Better late than never, though...
Not getting it? Look at their hands, LOL...Just 'cuz it's a holiday, no snoozing off on us....
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Coping: Tax Avoidance or Tax Evasion? Despite the claim by the filthy rich that they are somehow entitled to have tax-free offshore bank accounts, I'm not convinced. Having lived in the Cayman Islands for a couple of years - and having had a hand in brining jet service to Providenciales over in the Turks and Caicos islands in the early 1980's I've heard just about all the arguments.
What gets me to going down this path is the headline that "British banks revolt against Obama tax plan: British banks and stockbrokers may refuse to take on American clients if new international tax proposals outlined by President Obama are passed. "
We hear all kinds of whining about how the uber rich feel that they should be able to skate on paying their fair share, but when I saw some of the US citizens that were involved in the S&L flim flam I got pretty much disgusted with the whole lot of 'em.
I tend to be an absolutist on some matters - and taxes is one of them. I believe in a simple flat rate income tax and a tax-free retirement account. If we had those two items in place, a lot of the offshore banking business would simply disappear.
Those who are the real scammers - the ultra rich - take gobs of stock options for American corporations (think banks and financial services just for example) and park the money offshore. There are something like 50,000 US citizens with tax-free numbered accounts in Switzerland for example.
At my core I'm an equal opportunity guy. Not beyond equality - but everyone should play by one set of rules; not one set for us working types and a different set for the rich.
This two-sets of rules stuff really irks me and when I read how banksters are bitching about the Obama tax play (which essential would go after tax evaders) I am reminded how slimy the rich are.
Tax havens? I figure banning them them all would be a fine thing; Caymans, Turks, ABC Islands, Belize, Channel Islands, Switzerland and so on.
Of course, I hold to some pretty outlandish common-sense beliefs on income taxes which, along with my idea that no one in government should hold dual passports (that to me defines someone of divided loyalties), won't go anywhere because it's just too simple, too black and white, and it doesn't leave enough wiggle room for 'special' cases. Everyone wants to be 'special'.
Hogwash.
If you live at an American address I figure you oughta pay your taxes like the rest of us. And if that's not to your liking, save up your money, buy a place on Seven Mile Beach and try for Caymanian citizenship.
But in the meantime, to this day I am thoroughly disgusted with the immorality of the people iI met who were taking briefcases full of cash out of America during the S&L crisis and put it in offshore accounts under nominee names in order to not pay taxes. And it's all been perfectly 'legal'. Moral? No. Fair? No.
Bet me I couldn't find similar briefcases these days? Might be "options" instead of cash, or a buyout of some kind, but to me this stuff isn't ax avoidance. Let's call it what it is: It's tax evasion and the rich don't want to be caught.
The choice for the rich is pretty simple: Pay taxes and shut up, or face the mob with pitchforks.
The rich being predictable, we know how this is going to work out - think of it as a global version of the French Revolution. Old games are over. Welcome to Transformation. Hand me that whetstone, please?
Container Yourself Reader in SoCal sends this:
No big deal - they may be in the process of being sold off. But that gets me to something I've been meaning to mention to you for some time: You know what? Most folks are just plain dumb-asses when it comes to storage.
Humans seem to collect so much crap anymore than they need to rent storage units to hold all their crap. Amazingly, most folks will rent a storage unit for $75-100 a month or so, stick an old TV, couch, or old lawnmower in it, pay rent on it for five years, and then throw out whatever it was that was in storage. Seen it happen more times than I can count.
Are there exceptions where storage makes sense? Sure! When Elaine and I were living on our sailboat, there were trips to storage for winter clothes, or a rarely used piece of power equipment that didn't fit on the boat. OK, that makes a little sense.
But check it out: The couch which you might be able to get $100 for at a garage sale (if it's in shape worth saving in the first place) would be a fine start on a new couch savings plan. Sell it now and then put in $100 a month you would have paid for storage unit rent for however long you want, and within a year or two, you will have your pick of absolute top-of-the-line couches in real leather or anything else your little heart desires.
OR if you have to store something (and we're thinking about this here at the ranch for storing up feed for lean times) why not just buy one of those cargo containers? You can buy ' em all day long in our area for $2,700 delivered and painted your choice of colors (cammo is my choice). You can dicker down to about $2,000 in some areas for a 40-foot by 8-foot standard unit.
Waterproof, vermin proof, big wide and solid. Hell, you could even bury it if you wanted to. I figure a half hour with my cutting torch and I would add any number of window or door openings. Slowest part of that operation would be marking out where to cut.
In Australia, people are actually taking two (or more) containers and turning them into homes like these. Lots of innovative people have done the same math I have: A container is about 300 square feet inside. That makes it something like $8 or $9/square foot.
A container that's well maintained ought to last what, 20-30 years? How does that compare with a monthly storage bill?
Hey! Just asking. I know you can't have one in your NY loft, so just get rid of the crap you're not using, for crying out loud. (Any old ham radio gear? Send it along...).
Storage is a problem - it's a social disease.
Around The Ranch: Busy Week This has turned into an all-time busy week - been getting up at 4 AM lately just to get everything done. Still screws to put into the new deck (although it 'walks-on' just fine without them and 20-foot 2 by 6's don't go wandering around very much. This morning will be spent working on the new ebook on micro hydroponics that my commodity broker has cooked up. Really cool, too, since he's growing 12-18 heads of lettuce in a 1.5 square foot area and it's great for condos and other coop-dwellers.
Then this afternoon a couple of local musicians are coming by for a studio session - always a fun thing to do.
Somewhere this week there's a tooth-cleaning, a couple of day-long client projects, and things to order from various suppliers for this project and that (16-foot cattle panels to rebuild fencing at the goat barn, just as an example). --- The ham radio net Saturday morning got check-in's from 8 or 9 counties here in East Texas which was really cool.
Then, as he does every year, my friend Jeff WB4WXD decided that for this year's entry in ham radio's "K0S, Strange Antenna Challenge" (slow loading but cool pictures) would be a couple of 30-foot construction scissor lifts. Not that this is strange since in past years, Jeff has used (among other things) an M1A1 tank at the local National Guard Armory and even loaded up the railroad sculpture down at the famous railroad in these parts - the Texas State Railroad.
Jeff made a number of contacts with them cranked up and fed with 40-feet of coax with a "T" in the middle - so think of it as phased verticals, LOL. Anyway, he worked Alabama and W9ISM - the special events ham station at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Well, not to be outdone by a couple of scissor lifts, I fired up my radio and picked off a contact with them, too on 14.258. By the way, work W9ISM for all three big events at the Brickyard and score a nice certificate if you're into that kind of thing. Certificate-hunting is just one of the 10-gazillion subsets of the ham radio hobby/disease.
Of course, since I was on 20-meters and had the radio gear fired up, I decided to do a little digital work on BPSK down the band a ways. BPSK is sort of like Yahoo Instant Messaging except there's no internet involved. Just a radio and a computer with a soundcard.
Snagged a nice contact with TG9AHM down in Guatemala, which was fun...but you know how that goes: Start off with a simple little antenna testing with a friend and next thing you know, someone has snuck in and set the clocks ahead several hours. Want to catch 'em one of these days and I'll fix 'em. So went Saturday. --- And sort of rounding out Sunday was a Memorial Day Eve toast to "Those present and those not" with my retired SF neighbor, who holds 5 Purple Hearts, BTW. His best friend held 9.
Take a minute today at 3 PM to remember those who have paid and those now paying the cost of freedom. And next time it comes up, don't forget to vote. --- Also on Memorial Day weekend: The annual Rolling Thunder bike gathering in Washington.
Buy a Lotto Ticket The Powerball Lotto jackpot is up to $222 million since nobody won Saturday. If you do - and win, I'll tell you where to send my half for reminding you ;-)
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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at Amazon for about $75-bucks (PC - $85'ish for Mac's) is a
great improvement. For one thing, the scrolling wheel
supposedly lets you zip up and down long documents a lot easier
than holding your left finger down and slamming your mouse silly
on the desktop, while the left thumb clicker is great for
application switching - for those who haven't discovered (and I
am amazed at how many people haven't) the joys of dual (or more)
monitors and using the extended desktop feature that's been in
Windows for years now. Yeah, takes up a bit of real estate
on the desktop to have multiple monitors, but a desk is for work
anyway, right?
which seems to be about calculus and architecture and the ratios
of design and such. OK, I'm down with that, so I order it.
