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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday May 23, 2009
07:
55 A CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Next Week's Showdown I hope you noticed the action in the market on Friday. Normally - whatever that is anymore - the market should do a nice little bump up prior to the onset of a three-day weekend. Instead, the Dow dropped about 14 points and once again, we were staring as screens of numbers that just add to the expectation that one of two things will happen in the next week or two: Either the market will reverse up - and the 'thing that shouldn't happen' stop happening, or the market is going to collapse down to a test of 7,800 on the Dow and if that doesn't hold, then we're all *(putting it as politely as possible) toast.
Friday's action wasn't as extreme as earlier in the week, but still, gold up, stocks down, bonds down, oil up (along with wheat, beans and so forth in the commodity sector) and it's like I was telling you about the inflation outlook for the balance of the year: Look for double-digit inflation in the things you need and can't get along without, while at the same time we should see the prices of things we don't need continuing to crater.
The best we can do is take the weekend off and then fire off the news channels on Monday and see how the stock and metals futures are doing prior to the open of trading on Tuesday. In a way, it's a lot like golf: You play it where it lays. In my own account, I'm watching an inter-commodity straddle involving gold and silver, but own stocks? There are only volatility plays - for the most part - that seem interesting.
The way this game is played is interesting: You buy a decent stock and when it looks like the prices are at an extreme, you sell either a put or call option and then wait for normal to return. Done with short time horizons it's a way to get double-digit return, and if the stock gets called away (as in you sold an option that gets hit) so what? You've had a nice return and very little risk.
It's analogous to walking into a casino and going to the roulette table: You bet both red and black except after the spin of the wheel, you get your bet back - plus your winnings on either red or black. No, they aren't as rich as roulette - but then again, it's cheaper than a flight to Vegas or Tahoe - and every time I try to get my original bet back in either of those places, they always call security. Wall Street doesn't call security though - and until naked short-selling is banned, I'm not convinced there is any.
Best bet? Oh, that single-decision I made to buy a gold coin in 2001 at $275 looks like damn near genius-level stuff since headlines like "Dollar hits '09 low on rating fears; stocks dip" promises more fun on the precious metals side next week.
Bank Closings Continue Latest from FDIC:
And...
And this is on top of the BankUnited failure earlier in the week...
On Diaspora's Trail Word in the LA Times this week that the "Governor plans to completely eliminate welfare for families" is likely to set off a lot of people up and moving about. That'd be the diaspora part of the predictive linguistics for those aware of such things.
Cut people off from welfare and what are they going to do? Move? --- Although it's nice to read that president Obama is "...confident GM would emerge strong after restructuring," it's also true that the GM on the other side of chapter-whatever is not going to employ as many people.
And what do folks do when they are jobless? To borrow an airline's slogan/positioning statement "You're now free to move about the country..." 'It's just 'nother word for Diaspora for those with situational awareness. --- And with changing weather patterns, we get a dose of Diaspora in new or odd places. Like the thousands of people evacuated in Australia due to floods. (Note the picture because there's an echo of the planes-sitting-in-water Teeterboro archetype from a year or two back in the linguistics...) --- Along with Diaspora, here's an interesting story to throw into the mix: "Spam sales soar as buyers seek value." Simply explained to the aware: Most cars and overpasses don't have ovens or stoves.
Dancing Mountains Department Quake Friday afternoon in central Mexico. 5.7 or so.
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Coping: With This and That A few days back, I was bemoaning having multiple keyboards for the mu7ltiple computers around here: The podcast/audio production computer, the ham radio computer, the novel-writing computer, and this one where UrbanSurvival and real work take place.
So a reader asked "Why don't I just buy a KVM (keyboard, video, mouse) switch instead of having multiple monitors?"
Already have one - and no, it's the physical proximity issue. They distances are up to 120-feet apart, and there are physical non-computer items involved (like the production library for audio) that need to live next to the production computer - that kind of thing).
Next item? --- Readers have all kinds of questions about the predictive linguistics work at www.halfpasthuman.com. For example, a reader in the Netherlands wonders with the Global Coastal Event out there on the horizon, does it make sense for him and his girlfriend to remain in Holland's lowlands?
Personal opinion here? The longer the timeline, the more likely that kind of land (along with Florida and Bangladesh) are to sink beneath the waves. Moreover, when it starts to happen (e.g. ,global coastal sea level change) it will be too late to stay ahead of the crowd.
"Does Cliff leave certain details out of the ALTA reports?" he wondered.
Well, since knowing the future with too much precision brings a high level of personal risk, what would you do?
Let's take the GCE, just as an example. Suppose that you saw a headline come out in a month or two that said something like "Sea level to rise 3-inches next year, 6-inches the year after that, and 1.5-feet in 2012, 6-feet in 2013 and 20-feet by 2015? Justy making up numbers here, but go with me on this.,
What would happen to all real estate in Florida? Holland? Would you personally want to be the bearer of such news - and be right? Why, the PowersThatBe would be all over your case - trying their very best shake-down techniques to get you to spill the beans about more details so they could personally position themselves ahead of regular folks.
Thanks, but not thanks. Universe is an equal opportunity place for some things - and messing with that has karmic retributions that make anything other than decent generalizations dangerous.
Except, of course, someone who reads the data closely might infer "Gee, don't be in South Korea in December of this year...or in Isfahan in late October..."
A reader - following up on our "the Voices" discussion sent this:
(So do I, thanks). Did you say something? Another email about 'the"Voice"?
Are you back yet? Just kidding, but glad you have run into more 'aware' people. But curious where you found 'em, too....might want to do some hypnosis into that abduction experience.
Stifled Decent Department The headline "Liberty University bans college Dems" is sort of interesting. Can they do that and still get federal student aid? Wonder how soon before a democrat-leaning school bans republicans? Well, at least it's not race, sex, or national origins.
Or, is it?
Greed's Roots The headline in this morning's Miami Herald that "Creditors not to blame for our greed" sort of irks me. The way I see it, the present (still opening) Second Depression has blame for everyone including and perhaps especially creditors.
A person with half a wit ought to be able to see plain as day that the blame is spread among all parties to the problem:
Strangely, my anger toward advertising and marketing operations has cooled a bit over the past year. The way I'm now thinking of them is as hapless (yet money-crazed, too) lapdogs of the PowersThatBe / corpgov'ers who simply turn on great marketing campaigns on command, the way you might tell your dog "Sit!" or "Fetch!" Which they do with amazing precision. Except the commands are "Position us here!" "Target this demographic!" Roll over. --- The blame belongs upstream in the boardrooms and in the interlocking directorships that ensure that only the most profitable (in a purely dollar-denominated) sense move from corporate hive to corporate hive. While my friend Jack Lessinger's book "Transformation: The fall of the consumer economy and the rise of the Responsible Capitalist" holds hope that future boards of directors will start and end all research, production, pricing and strategic decisions with that one itsy-bitsy question ("Would we act this way if there was no money involved?") may someday be asked, it's apparently not time yet.
Economics and UFO's Pretty interesting email from a reader that brings up an interesting economics problem:
I think it's pretty well accepted by people who have done any
amount of research including books like Philip Coro's The Day After Roswell s are real and that major countries have gotten at least some kind of working prototypes up and flying. All that money doesn't get poured into black budgets and Area 51 without having some kind of output.
But here's the problem with massive quantative leaps in technology: They can really foul up the existing economic order.
Suppose you woke up one morning only to find that something like the Moller Skycar had just been announced by the government and the technology was being given to GM and whoever else is around? Especially if such a machine was an anti-grav platform and that the government had been building (under the guise of cell towers) who whole new radio navigation system so that people would be able to zip here and there effortlessly...
You see the problem? Bye-bye Boeing, rental car outfits, hotels, and the list goes on and on.
Antigravity would, as a matter of public policy be kept far away from consumers and entrepreneurial types because it would be a world changer. We know that because of what happened when a previous 'world changing' technology was introduced. And that was?
Gunpowder.
Around The Ranch: Memorial Day A lot going on this weekend, starting with a ham radio net:
Out of state check-ins ,welcome, of course. DE AC7X. --- Then it's back to construction projects around here. Still trying to get meds into one of our goats who isn't doing as well as she should. Well enough to run me ragged all over a field last night, however. So that's on the list again today.
The old saying "If you know a man with a lazy life, buy him a goat" is true beyond words. After meds, on to fence repairing, retaining wall building, and shop cleaning.
On this last point, I figure I will just be cleaning in order to dirty it again, which makes little sense, that being what shops are for, especially on the woodworking side. Elaine doesn't see it that way, howsoever.
Although I keep promising to install my central vac system one of these days - when I get the shop cleaned up to the point where I can find it again.
I think deep down inside me, I don't want to find it because it will mean moving shop equipment around so as to be accessible to the ducting, which involves compromise or buying way more ducting than I'm interested in. That's probably while the unit is still in its box along with accessories. --- Figure tomorrow at sunset, I'll go over to the neighbor's house with a couple drinks in hand for a toast to those present - and not - who have served The Country.
As always, I hold those who have, and do, serve in US Forces in the very highest regard. The twinge I feel - especially this past since Congress defied voter sentiment and bailed out bankers - is that we at home don't do enough to make the place worth fighting for.
I wonder how many folks in Congress really start deliberating with question "Would we still do this if money, votes, and power weren't involved?" --- Off to work on Peoplenomics for subscribers plus the zillions of projects around here- "A Very Long View of History (and what it means today)". So, if you're a subscriber, that's up tomorrow. If not, come on by for coffee Monday morning. Even though markets are closed, I will likely find some burr under my collar - can't let the blood pressure get too low. --- Send lunatic fringe rants, ufo reports, thousand dollar bills, and huckleberry pies to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Peoplenomics The "Voices" & Woo-Woo Meet Serious Investing I was genuinely surprise last week to learn about the number of people who hear "voices" in their head so I got to thinking "Gee, does this have any implications for investing? After a little research into such diverse areas a use of microwaves to generate specific 'voices' with subject's heads, I've concluded that not only is there something (good) to be said about "tinfoil hats", but in addition, there are some implications about investing and some things you may wish to consider trying which could influence your own investment and whole life decision-making processes. It is, as this week's headline implies, where "woo-woo" meets investing and where we might really profit from rethinking the old computer term GIGO...
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Pass It Around UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help. But don't stop now. Tell all your friends to wander by for an odd mixture of common sense economics, humor, preparedness and a side order of ...well, weird. Click here for a tool that may help.
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday May 22, 2009 Time to Be Afraid UrbanSurvival is not a site about fear-mongering - it's a site about trying to use the lessons of the last Depression (contrasted with the emerging one we're now in) to steer a smarter course through the present financial crap storm. The site doesn't offer investment advice, but I do my best to provide a better-than-average outlook on the general economic condition. That's something that I'm pleased to report has been accomplished; we've gotten thing much more 'right' than conventional financial media.
To get to the point this morning: I had a call on Thursday afternoon from a very, very worried Robin Landry, who was returning my call from earlier.
This was particularly worrisome to me, because as you know from reading this column, since last December I have been expecting a major spring rally which according to the HalfPastHuman.com linguistics work would end around May 14 (+/- a week) and that gold would soar (doubling three times is in there) along with silver and that the full-on derivatives meltdown would start around July 15th and would be emergent into a state of 'undeniability' around August 16th.
Landry's wave counts had - up until the Thursday afternoon call - offered me some hope that the predictive linguistics work would be wrong and that we'd somehow muddle through the present delevering of financial markets.
Now, Landry's worried that based on his market modeling that he's been using for nearly 30 years - and which has been good enough that as a one-man money manager he's driving 9-digits around the markets from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma - because of the way various wave counts are stacking up along with technical indicators.
"Robin, the way I've been hoping this would work out is that we'd still work up to the Dow 9,600 level, such that the decline from the October 2007 high (14,198 and change) would be the all-time high, which would make last year's 6,626 low the larger Wave 1 down, and that we'd last until mid-August of this year before we crash to your long term Dow 770 target in the 2010-2011 timeframe...."
We then played with numbers for a few minutes.
Ultimate downside risk? Dow 770 (Landry) or 1,020 (mine). But, Landry's got interim targets in the Dow 4,400 area first which we'll get to in a minute.
Back on the Thursday call, Landry was continuing his explanation of how various socioeconomic cycles were working out:
My mind was spinning. The damn 'revolution' meme has been showing up all over the place and that's not good because of the emotional power behind the level of people's figuring out - by late summer language-wise - that most of the country will end up getting gyyped out of a lifetime of work as The Second Depression shows up - which if the linguistics are right, will end up with mass demonstrations in Washington this fall calling for a change of government and punishment to those who put the country at risk through policies which have put 'making money' into the rare position of being more profitable than 'making things'.
What's the old saying? "When money becomes the master, everyone's a slave..."? We've been in that world since the 1960's and now the money slaves are about to figure out that happily ever after ain't gonna be so happy finance-wise.
"So Robin, where do people put money?"
The conversation ended with Landry promising me a copy of his 'colleague letter' that he sends out to a few investment professionals in the business. And sure enough, an hour later, this is what popped into the inbox:
Bank Failures and Dead Cats After dropping more than 100 points on Thursday, the market is set for a little 'dead cat bounce' at the open today. NORMALLY we'd expect to see a bit of a bounce in the markets today, because of something called "the holiday effect'. But normal hasn't been so normal lately, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally early and fade late, because of some of the news that's been hitting overnight.
This is something of a rarity - usually FDIC waits until after the close of markets on Friday before making such announcements and all I can say is yes, I'll be looking for more closures after the market close today.
Yep. Not advice - just a water-cooler bet: Rally at the open, fade at the close and hell to pay next week.
Whence Comes Depression "Fed's Plosser says inflation to increase, warns of complacency" headlines a Bloomberg story this morning.
Remember, when these boys talk about 'inflation' what they're not detailing out is how the mix of inflation and deflation will work out. Let me be a little more clear about it because it's a rehash of an old statistics joke: Statistician has one foot in ice and the other in a fire and says "On average, you're comfortable."
Same thing coming: Homes and car prices catering and food prices going moonward. On average, folks like Plosser are hinting at 2.5% overall. Might not be comfortable, though.
And this week, GM is having it's last cigarette (metaphorically speaking) before being marched to the wall next week to face bankruptcy.
Damn - here's an old saying that I could probably do without passing on - but I won't. Remember the old saying "As goes GM, so goes the market"?
Dollar Disaster Redux Oh, and not to sound overly gloomy (which comes from fighting with Expression Web which I may be able to fix for another $100 to get version 2 - since version 1 has been more of a paid beta test, but let's not go there...) but did you see where the USA (land of the brave, etc) is about to lose its AAA rating? Tim Geithner and crew are doing what they can, but the bubble's over having been damaged by many pricks already...er...so to speak.
Europe 2020 Think I'm a gloomster, do you? Go read the now free Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin #35 (I got my subscri8ber report a couple of weeks ago) and tell me who's gloomy, eh?
Fluage Treatment
WHO boss says
the world should prepare for severe flu. Why, what a shock.
Flu cases up over 11,168 and 86 dead so far.
Reader notes like this popping in...
Oh fine...little more sand over here to bury some more heads in, please.
The Day's Really Big Story "Wednesday Ratings: American Idol finale draws 40 million for last 7 minutes."
Go figure. --- Rebecca Price cartoon on Saturday this week....
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Coping: With Ghost Towns Think all those homes being vacated and foreclosed presaged new ghost towns as communities implode? Well sir, that's what's going on as "Recessions turns malls into ghost towns" says the WSJ.
I can only point to
writing about the need to get out of suburbia that I've been writing about
concurrently with the economic stories posted here./ How many times have I
referred you to Jim Kunstler's works over ast
www.kunstler.com plus his book The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
Have I or have I
not pimped Michael Panzner's
When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era
Hand writing has been on the wall for years. If you're not in a town where you can walk to where you need to get, or better - as was my choice in 2002 - getting to a sustainable hunk of land - then you get what you get. --- Not that cities will be unsustainable. My commodity broker JB Slear is writing up an ebook on how to use some technology he's been working onj to do high density hydroponics - and he's getting 18 heads of lettuce out of about 2 square feet of floor space - something that's ideal for people living in apartments and condo's - but more on that as things move along...
Another Bot Hit? Reader is asking:
Well, we'll see if she shows up in headlines. Set an alarm for it. Yup, the scarred lady is due any old time now...
See why we shut down the rickety time machine? Just too much risk of seeing the future too clearly.
Thursday May 22, 2009 Derating the Buck Not that anyone around here will really be surprised by the reports that the US dollar will sooner than later lose its position and the global reserve currency. A Financial Post headline on Wednesday summed it up: "Day of reckoning looms for the U.S. dollar."
In the very short term - like today's trading day - one of the things which will influence is the continuing rise in unemployment is the weekly report out this morning that says unemployment rolls are now up to 6.662 million workers, with the Labor Department laying much of the increase at the feet of the failing auto industry. What's up and down?
All of which combines to make the markets worry - both here in the US and in the UK as well.
My dime is on the next unemployment report coming in about 9.2% from the present 8.9 - and that's before you get to the PhD's flipping burgers part of the report. Not good. --- So what to do in the kind of setting? Well, lots of meetings among billionaires of late. And not just last week's Bilderberger meeting in Greece. Turns out there was a private confab of a few billionaires in NYC, too. --- The answer? Try like hell to pump money into the consumer economy and with that we are seeing headlines like "Treasury set to lend GMAC more money."
The reason that all the government stimulus hasn't kicked in yet? Simple! The democorps want to see impact closer to the next presidential cycle. Between now and 2011, the game is hold the line. It's in 2011 that the democorps will want to have good times all round. A strategy picked up from the republicorp, eh?
Oh, and this oughta cheer you up: "Greenspan warns crisis yet to end." Economic genius. --- And where is all that transparency? Good question explored in this morning's Washington Post.
Terror Plot Foiled Four men have been arrested in NYC for allegedly plotting to blow up synagogues and trying to buy Stinger missiles from undercover feds. No clue why anyone in their right mind, given the anti-terrorism operations worldwide these days. Clearly these folks skipped (or never got to) statistics 101 in school. --- Meantime, president 0 and the former vice Dick are still exchanging non-compliments on job performance.
Internet Police Force? Look, here's a headline that makes the case for what expect to be Internet use and publishing licensing: "7 arrested in NYC Craigslist Prostitution Ring."
Now that we're in the midst of the Second Depression, and since we have a rhyme on FDR & the "New Dealers" encamped in Washington - the "Change Dealers" it's only a matter of time until the modern analog to the Communications Act of 1934 comes along. That, in case you have forgotten gave the federal government power to control the airwaves, which have recently been pretty well handed off to a handful of powerful yet happily compliance major corporations which fit into the corpgov mold.
So, just as when the FCC was set up, a licensing scheme was developed, the more of less constant memeering about 'child stalkers' and 'prostitutes' using the internet seems to be pushing the public down a road which ends with checkpoints of some kind for access to the 'net.
Just as there are two elements to the FCC (regulation and enforcement), so too, we can reasonably forecast that the promoters of 'protecting the public' will point to the Boston Craigslist murder case, now this prostitution bust - and lots more - to mind-mold the public.
Of course, we don't need internet licensing, or do we?
It's common knowledge among thieves, for example, that auction sites and free classified sites are ideal places to fence stolen property. Good deals abound, especially in an economic downturn. And what's more, it's almost impossible to put enough law enforcement manpower on the problem of surfing the net looking for stolen goods rings.
But clearly, over time, this is one of those issues that is not going to go away. The only question is whether surfing becomes a new branch of law enforcement, or whether the 'on ramps' to the net will be controlled. A deep ponder, for sure.
Google's Plans Google has reportedly dropped the idea of a non-profit newspaper. Too many of them already, you think?
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Coping: With Gun Laws The headline in the Houston Chroni8cle on Wednesday said quite a bit about how the Lone Star State operates: "Texas Senate OK's guns on college campuses."
In some quarters, this will be viewed with suspicion, no doubt, but there's an old saying around these parts that goes something like "A well armed society is a polite society. How many headlines like the Virginia (and other) college shoot-em-up's could have been avoided, or at least stopped sooner, if a faculty member had been packing?
Much of the gun control debate is highly charged and incredibly emotional. The fact of the matter is that if you look at the leading causes of death here in the US, straight from the Centers for Disease Control's latest data, guns aren't the biggest problem facing longevity seekers:
No, I won't go into the gun law debate this morning. That's going to be going on for years to come, especially with bills about to register ammo and such. Remember, this is the site that told you about the coming ammo shortages back in March of what year? 2006 was it? --- Which gets me around to the other headline on topic: The headline in the Missioulian Online that says "More stockpiling ammunition: Fear of potential Obama laws causing mass sales" While the Oklahoma Gazette explains "Second Amendment economics."
Which gets me around to today's free multi-million dollar idea - which, as all UrbanSurvival readers know, I float now and then. Ready?
How about a new man's cologne that smells almost exactly like Hoppe's #7 cleaner? Always like that smell and it would be interesting as hell to have a scent associated with gun owners.
I mean, there's all kinds of other branding going on in the world, right? You've got visuals like the Nike log and the Starbucks labels, and then you've got a certain history with jingles, ever-so-popular in radio.
Now I'm saying let's get going with smell branding - a sort of open/secret nasal handshake. I bet you'd at least find a friendly ear to the idea in one of the national gun groups. And, with talk periodically surfacing in Washington, sales should be a no-brainer. Could become the definitive sniff test, eh?
Just a thought...but if you run with this million dollar idea, be sure to send me an email and I'll give you the address to send my 1% of the gross to....Oh...and a lifetime supply for me, too.
Kalifornia Aftershocks Yesterday I said something that was, oh, how do I say this? A little harsh on the left-coasties. Here's a typical email:
Included was a PDF of the Daniel Bornstein May 3 article in the Contra Costa Times "Guide to Bad Pension Policy", which as my reader was explaining, is just one of the reasons that Golden Staters turned down the latest cobble-de-gook propositions to (once again) paper over California's financial disaster.
So I did a little checking and found out that I was wrong. Kalifornia is NOT the Free Lunchers of First Magnitude. You know what is? Washington D.C.!
Yup. I dug out a link to "Welfare caseloads>Total families (per capita)> by State." (Which includes USA Possessions) The ten highest case load states?
Texas is #29, while Dick Cheney's home state (Wyoming) is at the very bottom of the list which perhaps explains some of how he sees the world.
One of California's problem is that it's one of three states that requires a super-majority to pass the state budget.
In the meantime, if you look beyond caseloads - and at things like easy-dipping public retirement funds, well, California is right up there. --- That welfare case loads are so high in Washington ought to be a major concern for the federal government.
Here's why: Pappy used to tell me that social pressures and crime didn't seem to happen so much in all middle class, or all low income neighborhoods. No, what he figured was that the real problems were in those parts of a city where there was a high level of income disparity between folks.
Using his logic, one could see where the odds of getting mugged might be higher in the border zones between high income and low income people. An interesting observation that I checked out years later as a reporter - and sure enough - there seems to be a lot of 'trade' crime between the high income and low income neighborhoods: the high income people go to the low income people for drugs, sex, and so forth, while in the other parts of most towns, the middle class just wants to go along to get along to the weekend so they can go camping or fishing.
What I wonder about this fall - and going into winter - whether the real problems to be faced by the federal government - as it runs out of money and things get really dicey - are going to be sent from the 'go along to get along state' or, whether the problem will arise spontaneously from inside the District. Well, we shouldn't have more than six months to wait and find out.
Sobering Quote, Thoughts on Bill Pay Here's one sent in by a sharp-eyed reader: a snip from a Michael Hudson article "{The Toll Booth Economy" in Counterpunch:
And there you have the fatal flaw of capitalism exposed. In the 'old days' a person would actually buy things. But in our efforts to 'grow the economy' we have gotten hooked on lifestyle renting. Lease the car, lease the house, rent the phone, rent the gym membership...and the whole slide into economic hell (we're still sliding, don't forget) has been made all the easier by "Automatic Bill Payment."
Not to get on a rant here this morning, but has it occurred to anyone besides me that the best part of automatic bill paying is that it allows you to forget the pain of leaving too many lights on when you write a check to the power company? Or that maybe you're overdoing the lawn watering when you write the water bill? Or how about the other bills that are on auto-payment?
People tell me "George, you are such a throw-back: Automatic bill payment is easy"
Well, here in George Land, I don't have a single automatic bill pay and every morning before I even start writing my column, I spend a few minutes going through the overnight brokerage account statements, the bank account levels, and a check of my (one) credit card to make sure no one is scamming me.
A little to - you know - retentive? Maybe. But I sure see a fine linguistic line between "Easy" and "Lazy". "A fool and his gold are soon parted," said the Bard. And thanks to new technology, that's now done automatically.
Ure Axiom #6 (Bill Paying Theory):
If money goes out easier than it comes in, you'll soon be broke.
Diaspora Deluxe Oh, remember we've been chatting about the HPH linguistics about global Diaspora? Check out the article "mass exodus from UK" - 11-million Brits planning to move out of the country in the next two years. Quite curious, with million more to come.
Wednesday May 20, 2009 Now We Own A Car Company? Damn, I must have missed something in the good ol' Constitution. Somewhere, there must be an Amendment that says "When businesses get run into the ground, the government should buy them." Because that's more or less what's going on today as the latest move by corpgov is to move toward ownership by the government of General Motors.
I know, you're wondering "How is it that as taxpayers we own 79% of AIG - yet don't have a seat on the board there - and now 'government' is going to own GM for a while before selling it off to whoever at some point in the future. Would yah pinch me?"
Sorry, no can do. Both of my arms are black and blue from all the pinching of late. Remember when the linguistics from HPH were talking about we'd get into a period where 'surreal' would leap from every day events? Well, this sure feels like surreal jumping out of a dark financial alley to me, for sure.
If I read the intentions clearly, the new company would be initially owned by the government and which would then sell it off to....here's where it gets sticky: Some would be given to the Unions (which means government is buying something for unions...hmmm....). And some would be given to bondholders in GM, apparently because interest which bond holders have been getting was never really supposed to include risk premium. And then, whatever is left may be sold off.
'Scuse me while I go pinch myself again...maybe my fingers aren't enough. Got a pair of ViceGrips I can borrow? Getting to where I could lock a couple of pairs on my arms more of less permanently, weird as the news is lately. --- So here's my new idea: Instead of me paying $30K in income tax this year, how about I just buy a new Chevy and we'll call it square? WTF, right? TARP me baby!
Look! Strippers! No yellow journalism around here, no sir. Just a NY paper kind of headline to get you to consider the ramifications of oversight if the "SEC may be stripped of its power under Obama."
Not that it's a bad thing, per se. It just seems to me in a moment of coffee-induced logic that what we need are overseers overlooking the oversighters, not just giving the foxes (banksters and the Fed) still more power. Honest in oversighters would be nice, since the headline that "SEC lawyers investigated for insider trading" are still ringing in my eyes. Gotta talk to my optho-doc about that....
Oh...what's that? There go those murmuring voices again.. You say if they already own the money supply, they already own everything? Minor twitchnicality.
What Goes Up ...comes down and kills nearly 100 in Indonesia.
What Goes Up, II ....comes down off the San Diego coast.
Kalifornia Dreamin' No surprise here: "California voters reject budget crisis measures" is this morning's biggest non-surprise. Why so? because people in the Republik of Kalifornia are Free Lunchers of the first magnitude.
Odd Crimes Dept. "Man demands dentures during alleged stick up". Lemme see: "You money or your teeth..." ViceGrips, please.
Change? Whatzzat? "Democrats won't fund Guantanamo closing for now." Too much money to be made in the war business. Well, can't no anything really new - like an initiative to make America 100% sustainabl;e in everything in 5-years - since that might hurt some of the ruling class investments. War on...you know, as in rhymes with moron.
Secrets Revealed Dept. Ah...what's this? All kinds of sensitive info about the Clintonista regime has gone missing? "Authorities probe missing disk with Clinton administration data."
Say, since we all paid for everything that goes on in the White House, don't we - the American public - own all that information? I mean, just wondering....
To Market To Market Ah...here I am in an inter-commodity strangle - long silver, short gold, expecting a whack-attack before delivery...but who knows. The Us dollar is looking weak, however, and so the outcome of the strangle may be a wash - or worse. If the price of gold gets whacked back to $906 I will win my bet. Commodity options are the moral equivalent of pull tabs. --- In terms of news, crude inventories come out this morning - and I know all about crude, LOL - and the FOMC minutes this afternoon, just in time to push me into nap land. which leaves only the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) tomorrow to round out the week, unless the mass layoff numbers come out. That's a number that really gets downplayed by those not facing the prospect of living under and overpass. --- Speaking of which, the Michigan legislature has given homeowners facing foreclosure 90 days to work out a mortgage deal. Now to see if the governor will sign it ==> quick!
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Coping: A New Kind of Search Engine Don't know if you have seen the new Wolfram|Alpha search engine, but this is getting on toward cool.
I know...you're thinking "Wolfram...where have I heard the name before?" How's about A New Kind of Science, Stephen Wolfram's definitive math/science re-education book - and a fine one at that because he gets complex mathematics across in a different-than-schooling kind of way.
Now, what make 'Wolfram|Alpha' different than a Google or an Alta Vista engine is that Wolfram, who looks at things a little differently, considered the search engine race and figured out that beyond spewing out reams of places for you to go looking for data which can be skewed by all sorts of SEO issues (keywording, page titles, use of H1, H2 declarations for keywords, yada, yada) his engine lays an inference layer ahead of the search, such that you get answers.
Aha! Cool insight, eh?
Sooo...let's say I'm writing a morning report here and I need to dig out some information on "historical GDP of the US." Here's how the results come back:
Aha! So now, when I go on a dataquest, I can decide if I just want a number or do I want sites to look at.
WolframAlpha is still in development, more'n likely because the human interface end is not fully flushed out yet. For example, if you put in "best financial blogs economics" you come up with "Wolfram|Alpha isn't sure what to do with your input" instead of the correct answer - which by my reckoning would be what? www.urbansurvival.com. But, I'm sure they'll get it sorted out. In the meantime, is a dandy example of thinking outside the box, and a click of the hat to Wolfram for getting there first.
Curiously, if youi put "bio stephen wolfram" into Alpha, you don't get much about the underlying fellow, except that he's British and 49 years old. For non numeric answers, a look at his bio on Wikipedia is much more revealing. --- Why bring this up? Because I have been absolutely fascinated by the MMI for years and years. That's the man-machine-interface. Whether it's the original XPARC (Xerox Palo Alto Research Center) work on the mouse and the graphical interface that we've come to know in Mac's and in MSFT product, or whether it's the intervention|escalation sequencing of a nuclear power plant's alarm systems - or even something like how to get 2 buttons on a battery monitor to do 64-odd functions (which I actually was involved in), the MMI is where the future will be showing up...one of these first days.
New MMI's open a new set of problems for me: At some point, blogging - presently done by humans - could be done by an inference engine. Yup, no kidding. A logical set of wise-acre lead in's, a snippet of an RSS feed with a link, and a wise-acre remark at the end, sometimes related to the 'set-up line'. Whoopee! Automated blogging.
And that's ultimately the problem with artificial intelligence: Once we figure out how to do inferences off search strings, how long before this quasi artificial intelligence pervades everything else in life? ---- Humans are wondrous in that they have a 'communication addiction' which we've never before had to address in human history. In fact, for most of human history, folks could get by knowing perhaps 200 people in their entire lives - just a quirk of sparse humans and lots of real estate.
But, consider today, that we can meet 200 people a month if you're in outside customer service or sales. Something that humans didn't develop much filtering for, hence we seem to have become addicted to. Which is one reason that my semi-hermitic life appeals to me, having lived on a sailboat and here in the outback of East Texas of late.
I mean, what's the point? I go to town every so often and what do I hear? Intimate and personal details of everyone's lives being communicated on cell phones, which combined with texting forms a sort of upscale answer to the CB craze. Where humans used to congregate around fishing spots, water sources or maybe an area where this good-to-eat, or good-hunting area, we're now congregating socially with these social networks and such.
But to what end? In other words, yeah, the communications is cool - and at least somewhat addictive - but where does it get us? Like monkeys on crack, we have come down with dialing, texting, and clicking addictions.
Sure, lots of arguments about how artificial intelligence will bring all kinds of benefits to mankind, but you know what? BS: There's always the tariff or, more politely, the payback period. Singularity hype is just that - dreamland. Someone's gonna make a killing one new technology that's rolled out.
Here lately, I've come to a very odd sort of view about all activities in life and underlying it is a simple question most people won't answer - especially in the business world. Want a really revolutionary question to screw up your next interminably long meeting in the conference room? Ask this:
See? When you can answer that question "I'd do what I'm doing right now" without reservations and about every portion of your life, you'll be living life on the right path.
But till then: What drives us? Do you really like being driven or wouldn't you rather be the driver?
Around the Ranch: Joys of Tractor Teeth Don't know as I have ever mentioned this, or not, but one of the (few) shortfalls of my Kubota 4-by-4 tractor is that the factory bucket that came with it has a straight blade on the front of the scoop. Don't get me wrong - it's about ideal if you're picking up fill dirt, or push around gravel and such, but for picking up logs and what other such things, it's just not quite right.
So I found an outfit somewhere in the Carolinas that welded up custom bucket 'teeth'. Theses teeth are about the same size as the ripper teeth used on a scraper blade for rough work - maybe 6-inches or so. They're welded onto a piece of 3/8th steel or so with mounting ears that turn up at each end. There's also tabs that fit just under the bucket, so the teeth are really well fastened.
Installation is simple, provided you want to take on the job of drilling a 3/4" hole in your bucket; a task made ever so much easier if you know about "step drilling" steel.
That, in case you weren't aware of it, was one of those old 'fire house' and machinist's tricks: drill a small pilot hole first, maybe an eighth inch, or less. From there, drilling anything bigger will be way easier because the real work will be on the cutting surface of the drill.
Once the holes were in, you just impact wrench on the 3/4" bolts at either end of the bucket sides and off you go. I've been pleased as heck with this set-up and I've been using it now for a couple of years and until I saw the tractor (at the worksite of a project, instead of being in its usual covered storage) this morning, I'd forgotten to pass along the information.
Once you've got 6-8" of teeth on the front of a bucket, the world changes. For example, I had a bit of wood left over from my deck project - treat 1-by-4's which I thought might be necessary for horizontal bracing - they weren't.
Now, while the teeth aren't long enough to list a pallet with a couple of hundred pounds of wood up on their own, the other most useful thing to have on your tractor is about 9-feet of decent (3/8's or bigger) chain with hooks at each end. Don't leave home without it.
Drive the teeth under one side of the pallet. Secure one end of the chain to the upper pallet lip and loop the other around a couple of the pallet boards on the far side, tilt the bucket and upsy-daisy.
Why I feel the need to share such things I have no clue, but it seemed like something you ought to think about if you're ever planning to 'go rural'. Or maybe next time you need to punch a hole in steel or non-ferrous metals...
Tuesday May 19, 2009 The Housing Disaster, Redux Yep, turns out the run-up in the markets may have been a 'buy the rumor' sequence because of the rotten, crappy, putrid (and fill in whatever else you care too...) Housing Numbers out from the Census Bureau this morning:
Does the term 'unmitigated disaster' mean anything to you? If there's some sign of recovery, it sure escapes my eye - maybe I need more coffee or something, but the only reason I can think of for completions to be up from March is builders having the fear of God in 'em since banks are not listening to delays on construction loans like they used to in more 'normal' times.
Remember them? This is what 'transformation' feels like. Hurts.
"bottoming"? You nuts?
Markets Home is where the heart is, if you still own one. With flu and budgets making people spend more time at home (or coop-dwellers, in their apartments ands condo's) I see that Home Depot is doing better than expected. Ditto for Lowes. Tell you something?
The 'Air Time' PowerPoint Don't know how familiar you are with the concept of 'air time' but if you're young and physically active, there are lots of places to cop a little 'air time'. One place is working a half-pipe with a skate board. As the skater progressively builds up speed in the pipe they can actually get over the top of the pipe - and with enough momentum working, they can get doing turns and other gymnastics above the pipe's rim - and that's the joy of 'air time' - the unburdening of the player/participant or athlete from the normal bounds of gravity. Air time also being a major component of aggressive wake boarding, snow boarding, blading, and the list goes on.
And, like yesterday, 'air time' pretty well sums up how the Markets are behaving of late - you're watching them grab air time - something my friend Robin Landry figures will last until perhaps as late as mid-August and from there the doors of you-know-where will open up. While Landry' s range is a lot more optimistic than mine (e.g. something under Dow 5,000) I'm pessimistic enough to at least figure out an operating plan for eventualities like the Dow being under 2,000 in early to mid 2010.
The problem is, of course, how to personally play it; loading up this summer on a boatload of long expiration LEAP puts might be one way, but the problem is that if the linguistics are right, the markets will be beset with closures and deteriorating quality of money issue so as to bring the question "What's the point?" to the fore. And that gets us (eventually) around to a starting point for this morning's report: Having gotten a little 'air time' is the market 'keeping it real"'? Wanna buy a Chrysler or Pontiac dealership? Know where you can get a bunch of them ad rock-bottom discount prices... --- President O will be announcing that the automakers will have to meet new and much higher mileage standards over5 the next six years - 35.5 miles per gallon. What is not being addressed is some of the bureaucratic nonsense that keeps back yard and shade tree mechanics from building their own cars. Bumpers must go here, must be so strong, and as long as we're at it, give us a couple of cars to wreck in impact testing. All fine and well, for production cars. But, just try cobbling up something like a hacked-together home built car which is made from junkyard whatevers, and try to get it licensed. Forget if it works. One of the reasons that I have been hanging onto our Daewoo (and may till the end of time) is that even once we get a replacement, at least with have a set of VIN numbers for the car. That's the kind of thing that I'm talking about.
How many folks would tinker with weed-eater powered bicycles given a half chance? Go check out all the vids on YouTube about "weed-eater bike" and you'll find vids like this one. Bet you didn't know that only about half the weed-eaters out there come with clutches, did you?
Think of it this way: A cheapo eBay dirt bike ($150'ish) and a weed-eater engine for (new $120 or used whatever) and there you have it: 150-mile-per-gallon transportation. Except, of course, if you live in California, in which case the engine has to be CARB approved, and in most towns you'll get popped by the local gendarmes anyway. Or, here in Texas, where mopeds (defined as 49 cc's or less) all have to be state blessed' (although there have been a couple of exceptions I know of, including one Texas attorney who fought this and actually got a cobble-bike on the road).
This is what I'm talking about - the very things that would speed up the transformation and move us into high mileage and reduced energy still have structural barriers to entry./ Which is why we don't see new American microcars based on lawnmower engines and such. Or better? Commuting go-carts. Don't know if you've ever had much go-cart seat time, but they will out perform some 'approved' cars. That my friend would be innovation. What's coming is innovation, sure 'nuf. But it comes wearing the wolf's clothing of more regulation. Where was I? --- That gets me around to the third slide of this morning's mental PowerPoint - the first one being a skateboarder with "Dow" on his chest next to to a picture of me laying at the bottom of the half-pipe with "damn fool" written on mine as the medics arrive, and the second slide being a powered bike rider being frisked by the bikestappo in quest for a VIN or state approval. Slide three here is a falling safe - and right next to it - a falling dollar with the caption "gravity lesson".
"Dollar drops as U.S. gain in stocks reduces demand for haven." The talking-points for this slide are dunce-simple: When our own ('course it isn't really ours since it's a club we can't join) Federal Reserve is buying up U.S. Treasuries, we're in a whole new kind of economics which I call "riding the circular reference". It's been done previously in places like Weimar Germany in the 1920's and, more recently Zimbabwe.
Speaking of which, a reader sent me a note over the weekend taunting me since I didn't have one of the new Zimbabwe trillion dollar notes. I'm just a poor pauper with a $100-billion note and a $5-billion note. But amidst Zimbabwe's horrific internal inflation with the screaming depreciating Z-buck (look closely on the other side of the safe on slide #3 to see it) we see that the "World Bank pledges US$22-milloion to Zimbabwe; IMF technical team arrives".
What this tells me is that the international bankster cabal must still see some resources which they want to get their hooks in as 'security' for more dough, some of which I'm confident will end up in bureaucratic offshore accounts, but that's none of my concern. The thing I really fear is that Wall Street, hard pressed to find a worthy investment vehicle for Americans with retirement accounts will one of these days roll out a brand new "Zimbabwe ETF". OMG, I can see this one coming... next slide? --- Slide #4 is like the falling safe and falling dollar (and falling Z-buck), except what you see falling are factories of automakers. "Dealer math in GM, Chrysler cuts is more sales at fewer stores" say a Bloomberg article.
Short talking point: "Maybe if you're toked up (but it's a little early for that, isn't it?) you can assume that auto sales will return to historical norms, but here in Sober Land, that's not frigging likely. Unless you borrow some of the Mogambo's meds.
Second talking point, slide #4: How come the Mogambo Guru has a Wikipedia entry and I don't? What-the-hell? Hmmm...maybe no one is listening. Next Slide? --- (Slide image: guillotine with basket and ominous looking dude with black bag on his head. A Photoshop'ed-in picture of an old dude with a white wig on protrudes below the blade.) This gets us around to "Michael Martin's resigning as the first Commons speaker to be ousted in 300 years". This over members of parliament padding their own purses with public dough.
Not that that America is any better: I'd be the first one to pass a law saying that when someone is first elected to any office, they must leave office with exactly that net worth. No inflation corrections, either. That would fix matters up, wouldn't it. --- (Slide #5 picture of Capitol rotunda.) What's more, our Brit friends have not figured out how to do bribes right. That's what lobbyists and special interest groups are. Wanna buy some influence? Do lunch with an American equivalent of an MP. Ask for a vote on some slop legislation. Hint that if Congressperson or Senatorperson votes the way you want, they might profit from asking you how your portfolio is doing in light of market conditions. "Oh I think my portfolio is doing just fine Congressman Vote-as-I-Say.
"In fact, I'm thinking you ought to buy lots of XYZ stock because Ik think it will do just fine/" Wink-winks and knowing nodes are passed.
How the (f-word deleted) do you think our members of CONgress are ought off? No one takes cash. But look at before and after net worth! OMG are you kidding? These people - if they really were that good oughta be bought up by Wall Street because they are frigging geniuses of investment - it's just amazing! No cash changes hands and I reckon the stocks are not even in the same sector as the legislation. Which is why the Lobbyists go out and have tip-trading lunches, too.
Write this down
somewhere you can refer to it often for understanding how payoffs and influence
peddling really work: "No cash, no crime." Wanna become rich? Get elected to national office. Go look at some before and after personal financial statements and tell me there's nothing that smells.
OK - so the Brits are a little unrefined about such things, but at this point it looks like Revolution 1 MP's nil. --- With this, The People's Economist looks you dead in the eye and says "Hand me a baseball bat, please?" Having a nice aluminum jobby handy from softball practice, you hand it over.
Whereupon I smash the PowerPoint projector to smithereens and say: "I'm trying to defend the Founders' framework of America and I get outraged by slides like these...."
I then reach down and pulls out a second projector, plug it in, and two weeks later when Vista loads, up pops a single slide of the American Flag.
"This is supposed to mean something...got it?"
And then the gray screen of death appears....a slight improvement over the blue ones.
"Show's over...at least for now. Got any Kleenex? I feel the sniffles..."
Fluage Speaking of colds, sniffles, and worse: Credit to Jim Willie of "The Hat Trick Letter" who observed in a private email yesterday the odd relationship between the outbreak of the Tea Parties and the outbreak of the flu which sort of douses the urge for peaceable public assembly, doesn't it?
Coincidence? You mean breaking out concurrently with moves by pro-silver forces in Mexico to bring back a monetary peg to the Peso? Naw, where do you get this kind of stuff from? Chaotic market forces just work that way, right?
Well, we could test the "Willie Hypothesis". Why, lookie here at this morning's UK headlines and noting that with MP's in trouble that the UK confirms Swine Flu Cases Pass 100 Mark.
Damn and only two days after the talk about the public wanting to "lamp-post' MP's. Why 'flu' flu may turn out to be as good for the PTB as 'terrorism' ain't it? Get's people who might otherwise takes to the streets to stay indoors. Carefully modulated, another find strong control mechanism, don'tcha think?
What we need is a new concept in our mental lexicon. Say, how's about "flu-mongering?" Oops, here's an article out of San Luis Obispo titled "Experts: Mild swine flue could q1uickly turn deadly."
So, was 'bird flu' the trial run? ---- Numbers? Yah want numbers? OK, I'll give you numbers...79 dead in this morning's WHO report...
And readers continue to wonder if there isn't some "fluage' mixed in with the data, relating in one case, this following experience:
Well, er...yah think... Travels Our favorite bunker buster (veep Joe) is in Bosnia today - part of a three day Balkans trip.
Lemme see: Balkans led linguistically to the term "Balkanization",. so does this mean I should quickly copyright the term Bidenization? --- Speaking of follow-up to the question about who first spilt the beans on the veep-house including a bunker, the answer to the question posed yesterday morning was it was novelist Jack DuBrul who wrote the book says a reader with a better memory than....ahem...
--- snip and save section --- Coping: With News Deficiencies Don't know if you have had any trouble getting to the "Drudge Report" this morning, but I sure have. Wonder if it is anything like the Google issues of the past week?
This is why - if this site ever goes down, I want you to bookmark my hot backup site:L www.independencejournal.com. If you can't get to Urban from work (or on a military base) the IJ is there for a reason, capiche?
Backup Phone Microsoft has launched something called "My Phone" as a beta. Possible feature: finding lost phones with GPS. --- Well, that's it for another fun morning here at the ranch. Sorry for the shorter than normal 'co9ping section ' much content to report above.
More projects going on at the ranch than I can sheik a goat at. But I gotta go now and sit by the phone. Maybe some of them lobbyists will call ,today and give me some stock tips.
"No cash, no crime."
Monday May 18, 2009 Collapse of Foreign Trade Continues It's that time of the month when I start to look at April West Coast containership numbers and I can't help but notice that in April, the Port of Tacoma up in Washington took in 17.9% less foreign containers than landed in the same period a year ago.
If you want evidence of why there's no recovery, you don't have to look very far to find it.
Similarly, the Port of Los Angeles reports being down 15% on the loaded inbound sheet.
Even worse? Over at Long Beach the year-on-year decline is 22.9%.
True, while the Baltic Dry Index closed over 2300 for the first time since October 10 of last year, the BDI is not a wholly accurate way to read foreign trade. What matters is what's going on at America's West Coast Ports. And, by the look of things now, I'd say there's not nearly as much action as usual, despite recovery happy talk.
Dancing Mountains, Redux Yes there was an earthquake in the LA area on Sunday night - map here - but that's not anything uncommon. Still, odds are about 1 in 20 of a larger quake say seismologists.
Markets Dow futures are pointing to a higher open this morning, bujt tomorrow we get housing starts and that means today could be a 'buy the rumor' before old Mr. Sell the News shows up tomorrow after the numbers hit. Fed notes Wednesday and leading indicators Thursday. Not much of a numbers week.
Nuclear Arms Racing Seems Pakistan is adding nuclear arms to its inventory as fast as they can make them, in spite of being in the midst of chaos. Ah, but not to worry say US .mil-types, they have a plan to 'secure' the Pakistani nukes should the government topple. Let me guess - another (one size fits all problems) invasion?
Bunker Busting Veep Joe has revealed the whereabouts of that 'secret bunker' which Dick Cheney reportedly hung out in was under the old US Naval Observatory Building where the veeps live. Not to be overly critical but wasn't that in a novel I read 10 years ago? What kinda secret is that? Don't think it was one of Clive Cussler's, but of that genre if memory serves. Who did the series with the crusty old Texan watching the Brownstone while he was gone adventuring- seems it was one of his...but it's Monday and damn early at that.
Revolutionary Problems So, it turns out that members of the Brit parliament have been padding their expenses - and more than just a hamburger out. And that has the queen herself upset, which I guess it should, given that phrases about "The public ... want to see dead MPs hanging from lamp-posts" are about and Buckingham is just up the food chain...
Say you want a revolution? (per the linguistics)? No worried, the happy walk is ratcheting up from the money meisters and headlines like "U.K. Home Sellers Raised Asking Prices in May, Rightmove Says".
Why lookie here: "Global recovery to start in 2010" says a report. Why darned if 'good times' aren't nearly here. The crack pipe, please.
Women's Rights Lithuania has its first female president.
Headlines I can't Resist "China's first sex theme park closes before it opens." No, don't ask what was to be on display (the mind boggles). No, the right question is "Did the inventors get screwed?"
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Coping: Dying for Ratings People die all the time. In fact, every does, at some point. Just how life ends. But I'm a bit concerned that dying has become a new (and IMHO sick) media trend. For example, "Farrah's Song' drew nearly 9-million viewers. And in Guatemala, a lawyer predicted his own murder on YouTube.
The recent death of reality teevee star Jade Goody prompted some polling reported in the Irish Herald. Pertinent quote:
Approaching death I think has something to do with renewed talk about legalizing weed. I figure the calls to legalize marijuana will grow louder because people are trying to 'get it right' with themselves before dying; a process that's likely to bring on The Final Battle with the booze lobby which has been trying for years to lock up the high business. Which might make a few folks really, really madd.
When are the May sweeps? Wonder if we'll see more dying on TV in the future?
Voice of Concern A follow up note to Peoplenomics subscribers - and of interest if you were following the reports last week of people hearing "voices" in their heads. Seems that yes, there really is technology which can implant a voice inside your head. it' uses two microwave frequencies and it may have something to do with cordless phones in some instances. A very curious email here:
If you haven't, you might want to read up on Project Blue Beam...which oddly, seems not to be in Wikipedia anymore..("The article lacks any sources that meet Wikipedia's verifiability standard.")
Hmmm... What was that? Did you say something? You say "Check under "sonic weapons"? Hand me that roll of Reynolds Wrap first, wouldja?
Old Media Fights Back As I was sitting here reading about how the NY Times has enough dough to keep operating - at least so long as the foreseeable future doesn't extend beyond 2011. --- I suspect few folks in the publishing business are candid enough to admit why people read this publication or that - but I think it has a lot to do with personalities. The underlying news sources are pretty much the same - old-time investigative reporting aside. What the brick and mortar paradigm can't seem to get is that new media means anyone who is a wise-ass cynic with a good sense of humor can produce enormously more interesting content than what editors pass off, since most editors are cowards on a good day.
Want an example? OK, given your average business rag - and with a few notable exceptions like the Telegraph's deep thinker Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, or the NY Post's biz reporters - I'd take the Mogambo Guru's writing style over most everything else in the mainstream.
A moment of reflection explains why: All media are pretty much spoon-fed by press releases which come from PR Newswire or Business Wire. True, others come from 'news conferences' where a reporter actual gets out of the office and goes out to actually cover something. But, it's more often than not because it's a chance to get in a flashy news cruiser, or because it's almost lunchtime and I can grab a sandwich at so-and-so's on the way back... --- Meantime, curious to note that media in the UK is talking about what a new web page is worth. Number they've come up with? About 10-cents. Given that UrbanSurvival pulls in about 40-50,000 page views a day, if I was brining in $500 a day from this hear operation, I'd quit consulting, LOL, since that would pencil out to way over $100K per year - and way less stress. Hmmm...
I think the newsing business (which I got started in June 1st of 1970 - a day that will live in infamy) has gone through a dramatic change. The net has removed all barriers to entry. Why, anyone with a computer, a couple of bucks to rent a server, and the ability to write (and not even necessarily well) can become a web star.
Let's think this through for a sec: You can buy a cheap laptop for $399 at TigerDirect, a web server for $500/year with more bandwidth than I'll ever need, and set himself up in business. If the writing is really clever (still waiting on this part, of course) the traffic will swell and I'll put a few high end links on the site and make more money than expenses. Not counting my time, it's under $1,000. Then, depending on when you want to post, you just need a couple of hours a day to devote to writing.
Now, look at the other side and suppose you want to start a newspaper: The newspaper is a complicated business model because there's a press involved. A couple of million for a high speed press, even in today's economically challenged market. Contracts with tree cutters for the paper mills, a huge nut to break in advertising, just to hire the ad salespersons. Then there's layouts and God knows, gotta have editors. And if you have editors then you have to have executive editors. And then because none of them knows guess-what from Shinola, you need Publishers and that means lawyers and accountants. Then you need distribution...buy some trucks and oh-oh...here comes the union. Then you need a big multinational corporation from Australia to own it all...and that means a corporate liaison and....my head's spinning now but isn't there a corporate jet in here someplace?
That's why newspapers have a problem. Not that unions are bad, not that newspapers are bad, and not that reporters in big cities are bad - at least most aren't. Not deliberately, anyway. It's just most have been hooked into a system that has gotten big and unwieldy. What's worse, the new media - and blogger types with brains - tend not to be owned by Australian corporations and aren't shy about saying so.
Nope - what you're seeing is a collision of paradigms; collision of business models. Used to be the only wise-acre, cynical, but humorous types to be found were the likes of Herb Caen or Emmett Watson. That was in the old days of newspapering but no mas. The public still has taste, contrary to what many editors might think as they watch circ numbers fall.
Variety being the spice of life and the web offers everything from a spicy curry to incinerating peppers. The newspapers offer dirty fingers and a recycling issue.
The web's got a bazillion writers - some pretty good - while others (like guess who?) are still struggling to figure out how to hang participles correctly.
It's death by a thousand cuts. Paper cuts, at that.
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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that there's a 'non-zero' chance that UFO'
and said "Suburbs aren't
sustainable"?
?
