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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday,
March 28, 2009
07:55 CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Mapping The Road Ahead It's a fine thing to do at the end of an incredibly busy week: sit down with a cuppa joe, a super-fast internet pipe, and review not only what happened over the past week, but where things seem to be headed in our run-up to the "summer of hell/2009" which, according to the predictive linguistics work at www.halfpasthuman.com, is about as close to a slam-dunk as you'll find off the basketball court.
In case you're new to this site, the Big Picture goes something like this:
All of this stuff is really very simple and obvious if you just take a few moments of quiet contemplation to ask that one more upstream question. Instead of breaking out of a bad mold and standing up to the lunacy of the past that has driven us into the presently developing socioeconomic corner, the 'fast change' artists are simply doing more of the same that got us into our barrel of pickles at every turn.
Sound government begins with sound thinking. You know: The kind that the Framers embodied in the Constitution which these officials are supposed to protect and defend. But instead of asking the right questions like "How do we all work just 2-hours of day or less and live in a land of plenty with Liberty and Justice for all?" would be a great starter...And that's all it should take: Automation is really that good and yet we're all pawns in this silly paradigm reinforcement exercise...." we instead get a change in troop allocations, a change in naming of enemy combatants, and a change in the role of China.
I don't know about you, but I have to join guys like George Soros and commodity legend Jim Rogers who are concerned, as am I, that this all ends badly.
So on that
note, it's Saturday morning and I'm going to go work on my
garden, do my taxes, and anything else that comes to mind that
enables me to live as a free American enjoying the fruits of
liberty as long as they're to be had. Suggest you do the
same. Oh, one more thing: The state of "Missouri retracts report linking militias, 3rd party candidates." A victory for freedom? Yes, but only as long as the public fulfills its role and remains vigilant.
Have you called your folks in Washington about HR 875, HR 814 and SR 425 which would reduce agricultural freedom under the guise of food safety? No? See...another perfect example of people sitting on their asses deserve what they get from the corporate-government monoculture which I call (corpgov).
Oh, one more thing on top of that: Since we are in a huge period of change (wait till mid May, if you think things are changing quickly now, LOL) the time monks may release a public 'libretto of coming events' just so you can have a little lead time to adjust to future events before they get here. No point having a rickety time machine if we don't share some of its outputs, right? Not as much as I get into in Peoplenomics, or the full up HalfPastHuman reports, but an outline sufficient so a thoughtful person can get ahead of the curve a bit.
Drop by Monday morning. I've gotten permission from Alan Land to post a couple of .MP3's for you to download (free, of course). One is called "Tent City" and the other is called "California IOU" Know the scary part? These were both recorded in 1983...see how circular time is?
Reader's Writes: This is interesting:
Still on my to-do list: Filing a patent for my personal DNA. Why? Because I figure that if I patent my own DNA, then anyone who makes any unauthorized (by me) use of it is guilty of what? Patent infringement and subject to penalties. Interesting concept?
Self-Profiling Another important email:
Repeat after me: It's only a coincidence, only a coinc...
Couple of readers ask "How do you know about tracking scripts being installed? Avira: www.avira.com has been dandy anti-virus software for us. And about all those hidden cookies that you really haven't deleted, but just think you have? www.maxa-tools.com for the Maxa cookie manager. No, don't ask me where the line between super-careful and paranoid is...it's past mattering.
"Where's my hoe? Come on Zeus the cat, let's get to work...real work...."
The "Singularity" is Going Bust There's a theory that suggests that people have a predisposition to denial or unjustified optimism, which might be labeled a 'save-us gene'. Not specifically religious, per se, the predisposition spread across many cultures is that at some point in (name that) crisis, a new [something will save us] will come along and all will be changed, all wrongs made right, justice restored, balance in the Universe returned, and the good guys will win. I'm not talking religion here, since discussion of religion covers such a wide range/diversity and is largely verboten in the workplace, I'd point to the non-religious 'saves us' concept is making the global boardroom rounds: the "Singularity". This particular 'save-us' concept/belief posits that humanity will get so creative, and so computationally empowered and so quick to market, that bumps in the road (such as our current recession-morphing-into-depression) are just a few formula and code libraries from being solved. But are they? The concept exists, in part, because Business Schools don't teach this one course...
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"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday March 27, 2009 One World Currency So here's the libretto this morning: We've got some US officials (Tim Geithner, just to name names here) who are telling CONgress that the US is not in favor of a one-world currency to replace the present US Dollar position as the global reserve currency. But then, he turns around as tells the Council on Foreign Relations ('member them?) that he may open to new ideas and wants more interventionist powers fast. And putting it a little more clearly, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the Telegraph this week that "US backing for world currency stuns markets" but not me. I figure What China wants, China gets. Welcome to economic realism.
Representative Michele Bachman, while admittedly a republicorp from Minnesota, has it right I think in pushing in a bill which would ban a 'global currency'.
Meantime, the Treasury Secretary is pushing the plan which would allow his outfit to take over non-bank companies if necessary. Excerpt:
So if you
watch closely, what's going on is that the bankster-class coup,
which began when the
The Creature from Jekyll Island
I assume that you're aware that President Kennedy, just before his death, had put the US government back in the business of owning it's own money when he signed Executive Order 11110 on June 4, 1963 that allowed the Treasury to print $4.29 billion in silver certificates?
I'll give you a pertinent Wikipedia entry, just so you won't think I'm a whacko on this stuff:
---
Today's battle looks like the 'slow cooking of the frogs', so to speak, when viewed in this historical context. Oh sure, you can say that it's all "necessary" but without the Gramm/Enron bill, Madoff', and the lack of federal oversight which was already on the books, we would not be in the current financial crisis, would we? Repeal of Glass-Steagall helped, too.
It's as The Bond Dude pointed out a while back, even if the rate of return is slightly better for the bankers than it is for the humans of this world, given enough time, the bankers will end up owning everything. Might take a hundred years, but sure as hell looks like the bankers-own-world is arriving.
Those that charge interest and lend money given no opposition from honest men will indeed end up owning all the means of production. Want historical precedent? Why sure...Where have we read about money-changers and this kind of behavior before? Matthew 21:12 was it? Wonder if it's covered in the Book of Timothy? Maybe this time... --- Bottom Line: A UN panel is pushing for a global-something currency. Vlad Putin is making a pitch for it at the upcoming G20 although Russia's been told (in so many words to shut up), and now we have people in Washington who might be open to selling out America's financial sovereignty to save their banker pals. We'll be told that without such measures, a Depression will surely follow. Which it seems to me, it will anyway, but the banker class will be saved.
Still, the banker's swindle of America's working class won't be complete without some kind of currency regime change. If I were advising the banksters with my financial/marketing consulting hat on?
I'd come up with a 'global whatever' currency that would be exchanged at a 2:1 rate. In other words, make people believe momentarily that for each $1 of US dollars they have now, they will get $2 of whatever the new stuff is. It wouldn't buy any more, and in fact would buy less, but American's a pretty dumb when it comes to ideas like purchasing power parity and other comparative measures of wealth. So that's the 'free consulting' answer I'd be expecting over the long term. Bet me? $100 USA dollars for $200 GlobalBux. Milk $12 GlobalBux a gallon, Gas $6 GlobalBux, and so forth.. --- Swiss banks ban top executive travel. Welcome to our world. Wonder what all these travel reductions will do to airlines, hotels and car rental outfits? Upside? Shorter security checkpoint lines maybe? Come on, there's always an up side....
Outrage of the Day, II I can't make sh*t up, it's that outrageous: "Terror inmate may be released in US: intel chief." So we snatch 'em overseas and turn 'em loose here? Hold on a minute, pahdnah....
Solution? The way I got it figured is this: These are human leftovers from the Bushco admin, so send half to Crawford, Texas and the other half up to Wyoming, is it? Wherever Dick Cheney's hanging out nowadays. Turnabout being what?
Personal Income and Leftovers From the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Futures are pointing down about 1%, but despite that, the closed last week at 7,278.38, so a market gain this week is almost like a slam-dunk. Unless the Dow loses 646 points, or more, today which (barring a terrorist attack or huge quake) doesn't seem likely.
'Dancing Mountains' Earthquake swarming in California (map) is making some folks nervous that a shaker may be coming of some size:
If you live in SoCal, time to get water (beer, since it's the weekend?) and batteries and such, just on the 1:100 or 5:100 chance they've got this pegged right.
'Them Floods' Dept. 50 people have died in Indonesia from a dam bursting...and according to our Indonesia correspondent:
Speaking of Red Rivers: Here in America, the latest forecasts for the Red River up in the Fargo area put the levels expected above what has been sandbagged so far. Anyone besides me watching the grain market?
Pimpin' Osama Dept. Been a while since the world's greatest boogieman has been hauled out from under the bed, so we're reading how "Obama's new Afghan plan to target al Qaeda havens" is being justified by (quiver and look afraid, here) Osama bin Laden may be planning new attacks.
Self-Profiling Examples? Speaking of Afghanistan: The Washington Times website article titled "Inside the Ring by Bill Gertz" tried to install a browser tracking script when I clicked it this morning...after the column was listed on the Drudge Report as "Biden opposed major Afghan effort". Story here, but be wary of the tracking script and if you don't have first-rate virus defenses, I can't recommend it. Especially since you should remember what I explained earlier this week about self-profiling...
Another self-profile example Had a similar experience with one story in the UK Mail Online which was about hanging of banker effigies planned for the G20. Again, tracking script installation was caught/prevented, but you need to be aware of such things. --- Word's getting out on self-profiling. Igor (time monk 2 at www.halfpasthuman.com ) has been watching the data coming in from the fora/forums spiders and that little article has now been translated into almost a dozen languages...
Taxing Web Affiliate Revenues If you operate a web site and depend on online advertising for a significant chunk of your income, you might want to read "Warning: California "Affiliate" online sales tax proposed." Thankfully, I built this here business model without relying on affiliate/banner programs...but then again, tax to control, eh?
A tip of the hat to Matt Savinar over at www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net for the heads up - and additional good background on this.
The Price Is Right Another 'perfect fit' from local cartoonist (and ex-Scooby Doo'er) Rebecca Price, (who I sometimes call the Hannah Barbarian, LOL). I call this "Ammo Shortage?"
More from Ms Price over at www.toon-republic.com "It's not your forefather's republic..." You might want to enter her cartoon caption contest, too!
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Coping: Curious Timing Ah, here's one: Last Friday the movie "Knowing" which is about how the end of life on earth from a solar flare event, and how it was forecast 50-years in advance, came out. And then early this week comes this article in the New Scientists called "Space storm alert: 90-seconds from catastrophe". Coincidence, or sync-wink from Universe?
Good News From IRS? Press release !R-2009-029:
A start...
Reader's Writes: Good one here:
Crazy, isn't it? ---
Send snip and save items, PayPal contributions, critiques,
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Friday March 27, 2009
Reframing and Renaming Language is powerful stuff. Most folks don't even think about how imagery bends feelings around and so when a name-change comes down the pike, it is given little notice. Maybe something in passing, but not a lot of discussion on internet fora, or other such places. Instead, it just 'happens' and that's it. But I'd draw your attention to the Washington Post's coverage of how the "Global War on Terror" is given a new name."
As I've explained before, the problem with the GWOT is that people are becoming a bit desensitized to it, if not downright cynical about it. Because the countries where our principal focus tends to be on drug production, or oil potential, there's perhaps some reason for cynicism.
But it goes much deeper than just a name change to "Overseas Contingency Operations" coming out of Washington. The deeper story is that the term 'terrorist' is well on its way to being reframed such that anyone who doesn't support the 'old way of doing things' otherwise known as the 'existing paradigm' is being selected as a 'threat to society'.
You may remember a couple of weeks ago how the Missouri Information Analysis Center got into hot water because it was discovered that in something called the "Modern Militia Movement" folks who supported Ron Paul, or Libertarians were singled out as being potential domestic terrorists.
Not that it's confined to Missouri, either. The Fox News Report on topic Monday noted:
What seems to be going on, or evolving out of the chaotic news headlines if you don't think there's a PTB aspect of things is what we call in marketing a "product migration path". It's how we get a large population of consumers from one behavior to another.
One step, a sort of kick-start, is to reframe and rename the GWOT to include anyone who sells drugs, anyone who votes independent or Constitutionally, and then, while the economy is crashing down around us, select out those who have shown the least resilience at 'staying in the game'. Think it can't happen?
It's Not Fair: So...California governor Schwarzenegger opens California Fairgrounds to homeless campers. Just a short hop, skip, and a jump to larger government camps, seems to me. Why not take a few State Parks and turn them into spontaneous communities? No, not enough fencing. See how this flows?
The big carrot and the big stick. The first few in the herd will be lured in with what? Food! The rest of the herd follows. Slowly, inexorably, first a few, then a river. Not good.
I'd be looking for stories out of the Fair Grounds in the near future explaining how good life is there. May even be...for now. But is it all coincidental? Or, like I worry about: Is it more of a migration path setting up?
Bombed 22 dead in Iraq this morning. Just when things looked to be improving. 10 dead from a suicider in Pakistan. Then there were nine police killed in Afghanistan.
Terra Reruns Remember the Red River stuff in the linguistics reports last year? Well, here's a kind of echo for you: The Red River is causing all kinds of grief up around Fargo, North Dakota today. --- Here at our ranch in East Texas, we had our first serious winds and tornado watching of the year yesterday - and first power outage, too.
Pass the Pee Cup Department We see now that lawmakers in eight (or more) states want to make passing a drug test a precondition for getting welfare. OK, but turnabout is fair play: How about mandatory IQ testing for lawmakers?
I can see 'hard' drugs, like opiates, ecstasy, and such. But something like pot which can be grown free instead of being purchased (and taxed) by the booze lobby? So, here's my plan: If they include booze testing, fine. Otherwise, free from plants ought not to be a rule-out. I'm just saying, why should the booze biz benefit from higher consumption in hard times? Under the guise of what? --- You saw where DEA raided a [medical] pot dispensary in San Francisco just days after the Obama folks signals that such operations would not be interfered with if they operated within state laws, which it's claimed this one wasn't.
Let us know where the burning is so we can all go stand downwind, LOL. Same page, anyone? --- Ah the days of being a reporter. I remember being at the dock when the Helena Star, busted in international waters by the Coast Guard with 37-tons of pot aboard showed up on the Seattle waterfront under strong guard in 1978....those were the days. A ship off the coast instead of gangs at the border.
Boy, has enlightened federal drug policy come a long way, or what? Yessir...turned a cottage industry and a few high speed boats into a near war with Mexico. What a deal, huh? Plus spend how much in the past 30 years? And what's in your wallet? Not accountability, for sure.
And speaking of that, you saw where SecState whats-her-name says the US shares blame for Mexico drug violence because of the large market here? Well, duh. Misery loves solace, or haven't the deep-thinkers cottoned to the obvious yet?
What this country needs is a good (legal) 5-cent high.
Spaced North Korea is getting ready to test a long-range missile. What a load-a-crap! Launching missiles about is thought by many lesser country leaders to be a kind of international erectile dysfunction cure. It's not. It's a money sinkhole. Better: How about feeding NK citizens?
Going Postal Now has a second meaning: Running out of money. Line forms over there...at Ben's place.
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Coping: Pre-loading and Other PIM Concepts You might want to spend some time working on PIM - personal information management. Very few people are conscious enough of their daily computer use to develop a 'personal information management strategy', but since I was discussing the concept of 'self profiling' with you earlier this week, I thought it would be a useful follow-up to also get into how Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com and I share some commonalities with regard to how we use the net.
For one thing, since we have a pretty good idea as to when certain trends/changes seem likely to occur, based on the asymmetric language trend analysis (ALTA) reports, that gives us gobs of time to devote to forward-looking, deeper study of key developments. For example, we know that certain aspects of the weather are going to be worse/different this year than most, and we know the 'summer of hell/2009' language is abundant. Easily hedged to some degree, but most people don't (or won't) since they are bound up in day-to-day mindless crap; so their 'window of opportunity' to prep for what's next in this Year of Transformation dribbles out their DSL modem as they walk away from being in charge of their own outcome and instead join 'the herd'.
In other words, while there may be tons of news and discussion of something like this plane crash, that murder, or that Hollywood personality being in court for [whatever], but if you think for a moment "Does this have the remotest chance in hell of meaning anything in your personal life outcome 20-years from now?" In most cases, the answer is "No!".
Why do you do it? What do you do about it?
Example at a social level: Sure, there's something about watching the news - maybe it's the imminence of death' factor - that keeps people spellbound and worried about this possible next development, or that. It's like: Why do people go to NASCAR races? Is it really to see how fast automobiles can go while turning left? Or, is it something more...some imminence of death, danger shared with a crowd phenomena?
Don't get me wrong, I like car racing and all, but I'm more a
do-it-yourselfer inasmuch as I like tracks that turn both right and left
(I'm talking a road course here). Which is why instead of
having a bunch of posters for this stock car driver or that, I
instead invest in books like Car Lopez's Going Faster! Mastering the Art of Race Driving
My point is that using the 'net is reasonable analog to car racing. Some people are 'watchers'. They will read every joke sent to them, and then they will go to every video link, follow endless online discussions; but I ask "To what end?" Cliff's a 'mechanic' and good driver on the road course that is the 'net and I'm a decent rookie driver. Say, is that you up there in the stands? --- Avoid excessive depth in news reports as this has its dangers, too. Analysis can get so deep, so circular given the amount of information today, that making a judgment becomes all but impossible; there are so many facts on both sides to be considered. What's the old saying? Ah: "Analysis causes paralysis." So how does one come up with proceed? By taking a moment before doing any Google search or second/third/fourth version of one news item and asking "What am I going to do with this information once I get it?"
You could add lots of sub-routines to that one, for sure. Like "Is this going to be useful information? Will is change any of my behavior? Change any outcome now, or in the future in my life?" If the answer is often "No...but it would be nice to know...." that's one thing. But I've found myself wasting an incredible amount of time in the past surfing eBay and other sites, with no specific outcome in mind. Here lately, I've become a search & shopping Scrooge: If I can't use the information in some specific application now or in the near future, I won't do the search.
These couple of points alone can free up hours a day. The next one is how you parse (sort/decide what to read) in your email inbox. Although I appreciate people sending me jokes and pictures, I don't really have much time for that. If someone sends me 4 mb of video, I will be very judicious based on the cover email in my decision whether to watch. Most go right to trash.
Ultra-high efficiency guys like Cliff even go so far as to strip off all attachments, and cue mail into his Vortex Reader and slam through emails at 1,500 words per minute. I use my Vortex for longer documents and books...quadrupling my input speed.. If you don't know how to use an email router, I assure you, it's worth the effort. Clients come first, so they have boxes. Friends/relatives next, again, with boxes. Ditto Peoplenomics subscribers. Everything else has a heap. Gets read, but wow, does it go fast.
Then there's the matter of discussion groups. While these are nice, I only subscribe to a handful and of these, I'll only read one or two posts per day max, just to keep up on the flavor of the discussions. One discussion group on longwave economics and one on old-time Hallicrafters radios just to keep by electronics trouble-shooting skills current.
A 'danger' of discussion groups is that they lend themselves well to a kind of consensus-building that I'd just as soon not take part in; we've got plenty of group-think afoot in America already. Instead, I just pass on most everything available understanding, of course, that there are occasional bits of brilliance in such groups, but Cliff's linguistic spidering gets some of that and the rest I can live without. The problem with the group-think/consensus building? You lose independence of perspective.
It boils down to a framing something like this: "Do I want to spend a lot of time (say 200-hours a year) being involved in consensus-building? Or, do I just need 5-minutes of research time if the group purpose/consensus ever shows up in my life?" I'll take the latter, thanks. In the meantime, I can remain aloof, independent, and develop my own viewpoint which people can read, or not, as they choose.
Summary:
This may seem overly harsh, but people sometimes ask "How do you get so much done?" The answer is to cut out as much unnecessary bullshit from my life as possible. In the end Life comes down to only a couple of things (and you can arrange these in whatever order you want):
'Course this is all debatable no end, but not much point to debate because again, that's one of those PIMS issues: Don't waste time arguing with people. It's not my job to change your mind, just one of my jobs to do this site since it 'calls to me' (see Path and be on it).
This is not a course in how to be a hermit. This is how you can improve your use of personal time immensely. Have you called your Congressman on this lousy Farm-busting bill HR 875? What's more important? Forwarding some mindless bullshit video and jokes or getting on the blower to Washington and demanding some of this crap end....now!
Or were you caught up in the latest flame war in some discussion group? See how the 'net can be used for social control? Too busy talking and no time on going. It's fine bread, and better circuses.
Wednesday March 25, 2009 Internal Chatter / Snake Tastes Tail Day I've always found that I do my best trades when I get sufficient information and the constantly back-and-forth between the ears quiets down as a moment of clarity takes over and a single voice says "Yes, I think this is the right move..." The trade is place, and more often than not, it works out. But, until that moment arrives, there's a cacophony of internal chatter driven by competing inputs.
There's talk, in Washington, for example, that democorps are taking the tax cut for us middle class working folks off the table. No comment from the White House, but my internal chatter goes something like "Hmmmm...given that we need to kick-start consumer spending if the old paradigm/way of things is to be saved, why would they do that?" And, of course, without the consumer coming back to party a bit, there's no reason to be bullish on stocks until after we get past 2010 some ways.
Another fine conversation to 'tune in' on has to go with the price of gold (POG) - see chart above. When the price soared $70 bucks last week, I was thinking "Aha! We are getting public recognition that inflation is coming up the pipeline!" However, since then, gold has moved back to just over $920 at press time and the internal chatter is saying "Hold off, George, maybe we will get that pullback to under $750 which would make for an ideal entry point on the long side." So still watching that one.
In the meantime, you see where oil is down a bit before the EIA data? Folks I know in Europe are saying this could be a key reversal and if that's the case, then gold coming down is part of another hit of deflationary pressure.
Then we've got to digest along with the Wheaties the report from the World Bank this morning that India was tops globally in remittances in 2008. In other words, the money coming from India, Russia, Malaysia, and South Africa was pretty good, but as things tighten up globally, this money could decline quickly and you know what that leads to: global depression digging in deeper and more difficult to ameliorate.
US Durable goods orders are out this morning, against an expectation that the advance numbers for February would be down about 2.5%. Well, here's how it worked out - much better than expected:
Again, more grist for internal chatter, pushes me bullish, but nothing conclusive.
A call to Robin Landry didn't clarify things, either. Landry got most of his clients out when early Monday this target levels were broken to the upside, but he's skeptical this rally's staying power until his wave counts confirm. "I'm watching first the 7,200 area on the Dow, and then around 7,100... if we see a break down under 7,000 in short order that gets really bearish, so I just keep watching my indicators..." So over the next few days, perhaps a week or so, we will find out if this was an Elliott wave 4 or a 5th wave failure and in the meantime, I've got both counts in mind, too.
The important thing about being a good trader, I've always heard - not that I am one myself - is that you have to be unbiased and ready to play either direction; the upside or downside. As the Bond Dude often points out to me, your money doesn't know where it came from."
While the chatter continues keeping me up nights, there's still no sign of a 'turn" in the secular economy, at least one of sufficient size to flip things around and become incredibly bullish. Take the Mass Layoff report out last week, just for example:
Landry is expecting things to clarify over the next week, or two. But for now, I am pretty comfortable with my present position which continues to be cash and treasuries. I'll just wait a spell more and see if the 'chatter' quiets down. When it does, I'm ready to go short, but long seems more likely. As always, it's likely to be a matter of timing, is all. As a friend in Luxembourg noted this morning:
Not that I'm the only skeptic that the right medicine has been administered yet to cure-what-ails-us: Paul Tharp's got a good story in the NY Post this morning headlined "Nobel Laureates trash plan for toxic assets. One key quote (which mirrors what I've been telling you for who long?) goes like so:
So with all this going on, the biggest story of the day may turn out to be the start of the Fed coming into the market today to start purchasing of Treasuries to unfreeze the credit mess. As I've warned before, this a a 'snake-swallows-its-own-tail' kind of thing. Once started down that path in previous economies, the snake starts to get a real appetite going.
Am I the only financial reporter who's got a $105-billion in expired Zimbabwe dollars taped on my office wall to remind me how hungry that kind of snake gets?
Britain's Busted, Too We are not alone: If you think Uncle is alone in our spendy-frenzy, the headlines from the UK are increasing critical of free-spending, gold-selling, mint pimping Gordo Brown. Example: "The Bank of England and No.10 at war: We can't afford Budget spending spree, Governor tells Brown."
Here, let me simplify that headline for you: "The Bank of England and No.10 at war: We can't afford Budget spending spree, Governor tells Brown."
How'd I do?
'You Know Things are Bad' When Department Playboy is closing its Manhattan offices. --- Try as I may to masquerade as an East Texan, I still find bunnies more interesting than rabbits.
New Depression Weather That drought in the nation's midsection is causing headlines like "Drought Reignites Dust Bowl Fears" to appear. And with good reason. Have I ragged you about your garden yet today?
New Electrics Here's a world-changer for you: The U.S. Navy has a research team which has experimental confirmed cold fusion according to an article this week in EE Times. This is the best article I could find on it and it has the diagram of the experimental container, too. So...if you're a home experimenter, have at it. Fleischmann and Pons were right, it seems...
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Coping: With Med Shortages I asked the question Tuesday about medicine shortages and if they were increasing. Seems the answer is you bet! One email in particular stood out on this topic:
And if you're looking for additional detail, it turns out the FDA has a web page which goes through current drug shortages, resolved shortages, and even discontinued drugs. If you're a healthcare practitioner, or if you're on a drug that keeps you alive, you should maybe bookmark this page: http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/shortages/
Yeah, yeah, why doesn't ATF have a similar page for ammo shortages? And speaking of which, here's an interesting email:
I'll just put that over here in my "It wouldn't surprise me, but then things would get ugly...." file. Say, that file is getting phat.
This is
Sick
This is Well Film review:
Goes on my 'gotta get to it' list. Das' book Remember, Be Here Now
Humor - Me? Email:
Presactly. Most people don't relax and let their minds wonder often enough. Especially when I report various economic statistics with a dash of in-you-endo, if'n you know what I mean?
Feeling Better Here: You judge the quip and the dead:
Shhh!!! You'll be giving Robert Mugabe and the band of Washington socialist wannabe's ideas: "One-infinity, two-infinites, three-infinities....."
Simple choice: Hard government & soft money, or hard money & soft government... easy, huh? --- One more to ponder: "An armed society is a polite society" notes a ham radio friend. Yup.
Tuesday March 24, 2009 'Death of the Dollar' Department The 'death of the dollar' is something which has been kicking around predictive linguistic modelspace up at www.halfpasthuman.com for several years now. And since we've got a working Theorem that 'the further in advance we see something in modelspace, the larger the impact of the event seems to be' and since we've had a couple of years of 'November' references, it seems that by the end of this year, the Barak Obama is likely to be facing one of the worst crisis ever to confront a President. Not only will he be facing a country full of social unrest in the wake of the "summer of hell/200', but we read now today how "China calls for a new reserve currency" which will be a financial nightmare of the worst possible sort.
As we've been expecting, this will r4eally 'get traction' in May, but already the Russians have been making similar noises and Vlad Putin will be putting on a pitch at the April G20 meetings.
True, yesterday's rally in the stock market was impressive as the Washington Post headlined it "Stocks Soar Most Since November On Toxic Asset Plan, Rise in Home Sales." but already weighing whether our long awaited springs rally might finally be arriving, or, a bit more darkly, if this is just the professionals having a fine 'running of the shorts' so they won't be hurt when a final bottom carved out in the next few weeks.
Not that it matters. If the kind of inflation that bailout seems to infer becomes real, gold's fall over the past couple of days may become the 'last train out'. Or, will we go back down to the $700 range one more time? Careful judgment is required and there's no 'one-size-fits-all' answer. --- There are times in the past that I've used commodity price movement for clues and sure enough, those Capitalist Tools over at Forbes are reporting that "Key commodities jump on US plan to clean up banks." Sooner, or later, those are going to show up in the grocery stores.
In addition to food commodities, the headlines also crossed this morning that the "OPEC basket price continues to gain, reches USF 50.18 pb" and with oil hitting those per barrel levels, the input costs for ag are bound to be heading up, too. Time to do more stocking up, if you're a farmer. --- The White House has been cautious trying to manage down expectations a bit. Apparently there's a lot more economic displacement to come and they're trying to get ready for it by putting in place plans to seize non-bank financial companies if they begin to threaten the broader economy. A large insurance company going down, or the biggest of the hedge funds would certainly be painful, but I keep wondering "Where's the line? At what point do we cross some unmarked boundary layer and go the way of the Former Soviet Union (FSU), arguably history's largest example to date (after Rome, Egypt, and the Mayans) of failed central governance."
Note to self: Stop seeing this economic collapse in such a Big Picture way and worry instead about the things on today's calendar that are actionable. Like my dental appointment this morning. The 'death of the dollar' will happen, or will get enough press to make it appear real as the year moves on, and if folks haven't hedged by now, it won't be because I haven't been pointing to it for years.
Stating the Obvious Department "IMF says clean up banks to tackle dire world crisis." No shite, Sherlock.
Dancing Mountains, II While Redoubt continues, the biggie this morning is a 4.7 temblor in SoCal. 90 miles ENE from San Diego.
Longage of Humans, Redux Jay Hanson, who performed a huge public service with his legendary http://dieoff.org/ site, was the first writer I encountered to use the term 'longage' of something. It's the opposite or a 'shortage.'
Longages of anything cause interesting effects, not the least of which is the financial mess humanity finds itself in today. It's pretty obvious that the ideal thing to do would be to crunch down the number of humans to perhaps 5% of what it is today and start over with a little higher consciousness about how things develop. naturally, the PowersThatBe have figured this out, but lots of others have arrived at the same thoughtstination.
One of Gordo (the gold and mint seller) Brown's green advisors, Jonathon Porritt says that in order to achieve a sustainable society, the UK must cut its population in half. --- Of course, that begs the question of the selection process by which this all happens. I'm partial to environmental collapse because that would be a pretty decent/impartial way to sort out who's got hard work and survival skills, but I'm sure government will have some other plan in time. Just call me Soylent George, if you will, but wouldn't it make more sense to put saltpeter in the water and ban erectile stimulants, than putting in fluoride? Just askin'...
Out to Launch North Korea says it has a right to launch a satellite. South Korea scores it in the 'act of war' column. I'd score it great theatrics but only about a 4 out of 10 overall.
Martial Law Coming Keep meaning to mention this story from last week: "Schenectady mayor considers options, martial law over police woes." Repeat after me: Don't need tanks if you got banks.
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Coping: Silently Self-Profiling -- YOU A couple of readers have asked me lately "Is there some stuff on your mind that's bothering you? You sound kinda bleak lately." Well, yeah, kinda sorta maybe. Let me share just one of those things that's been bothering me; perhaps you'll understand. Here's what's going on:
It starts off simply enough...you get an email from a friend and it says something like: "OMG You have to see this video about [fill in the blank]. Because you're very interested in [fill in the blank] as a topic, you click over to the link to see what's a highly charged video about [fill in the blank] and the video urges you to 'tell all your friends about this video and send them the link...'.
If you're not computer/military/PowersThatBe savvy, you're likely to pass on the link without giving it a second thought. But you should give it some serious thought whenever you follow links because when you follow links you may be self-profiling yourself to the government.
Amazing? Well, no, pretty simple programming exercise, really. And, if you had the 'summer of hell/2009' coming up due to all kinds of social stresses and the breakdown of the social contract, right about now if you were trying to defend the existing social paradigm, you'd be doing the same thing, too.
It's called 'memeering' and according to our predictive linguistics friends at www.halfpasthuman.com the program is already underway. Toward what end? Well, what's a low-cost way to find out who is what kind of potential threat to your paradigm? I'll show you how it works, step-by-step so you 'get it'.
Congratulations! You have just gotten yourself into a government database of people who have an 'interest in black powder'. Since you probably don't spend as much 'head space' as we do, thinking about such computer applications, what this looks like in database set theory can be visualized this way:
So far, so good. Now, let's further suppose that want to narrow down the kind of people that would also be interested in anti-establishment direct action. Next step? Another video (or web site) only this time, we are going to use a topic like, oh, say "Startling New WTO video!" Such that folks going to this second vid site will likely include some people who also have an interest in black powder, like so:
Now, it becomes a simple matter to say "Hey! See that IP Address 12.191.191.5? That shows up in BOTH groups. This intersection between sets in database operations is the vesica pisces.
But now, let's take it one step further, because so far, it's still far too many people to round up and throw in special 'camps' should the country get into a period of social unrest; say over a 'summer of hell/2009' period. So we will put up another site, only this time it might be something like "List of upcoming "Tea Party" events. Like so:
So, you see, it's all very simple, once you get the basis concept down: How will you be self-selecting whether you get judged a 'threat' or not is a simple matter of keeping track of which links you followed to get where.
More important? There's also a simple way to build 'social networks' this way because not only is your IP address logged, but so is the time of your visit. So as this kind of data snooping continues - as long as lots of folks don't understand it, when you forward one of these sites, you are then in effect telling whatever government "Hey, I am linked to Joe your bother-in-law over here"...and pretty quick not only do they know who has an interest in guns, WTO demonstrations, and upcoming Tea Party events, but they also know that when your IP address shows up, in say half a dozen such exercises, that "Joe your brother-in-law" shows up within a day or two, and he's already on their 'threats to society' list because he actually carried a sign and was ID'ed at some other kind of event...maybe an environmentalist affair of some kind. And they get all Joe your brother-in-laws connections, too, until pretty quick you get a map in a social networking application that might look like this:
So here's my bottom line: When you do any kind of social networking, be extremely careful with whom you associate. Or, in the case of Cliff and me, simply don't follow unknown links. Nothing wrong with YouTube and Google video, but even there, the IP snooping that goes on at the phone company level is pretty awesome,; which is what the privacy people get all worked up about.
Why am I bringing this up today? Because the web bot project has been running across more of these kinds of memeering operations lately which means one of these days, one or more of them will show up in your email. And, as they do, no matter how tempting it may seem to follow this emotionally highly-charged link just remember that in the process you are self-sorting yourself into some kind of a government profile as part of 'total information awareness' programs designed to enable preemptions, national security rating, and in a worst of all cases scenario, your round-up priority if you've identified yourself as a 'risk' to the existing paradigm.
Although it may be too late to do anything about it, if you've already gotten such emails and followed them. But WTF, its easier to explain it now than waiting till the October-November period when there is a small, but non-zero, chance some rounding up will be done.
Oh...one more thing: If you think you can 'beat the system' by using an open access proxy server somewhere? Are you kidding? Those would be almost the very first people to round up because they're smart enough to 'get it' and therefore are the most threatening there are to the existing paradigm, are you kidding?
Yes, this is exactly what the electronic freedom fighters are all about, but that battle's been over for a long time. Sorry. You lost. Oh sure, something like the Google Street View controversy seems like the right fight, but are you kidding? Hell no, it's a minor distraction to keep the public off the real deal memeering.
All plausibly deniable, too. How so? There are something like 27 levels of security classifications above even the President of these United States. So you just know how far down the food chain Congress and watchdog agencies are. But then you knew that, too, or at least you should have. Or, maybe you don't. And maybe there really are no PowersThatBe, no shadow government, above the elected, and acting as self-appointed caretakers for the existing way things are because it sorta works. Of course.
Then again, you might inspect those links to web sites that aren't on the beaten path, and even then, you gotta wonder what the phone companies are really up to in their central office frame rooms, and why that's so important to 'national security'. Except now you know.
Shortages First ammo, now medicines?
Send reports...but yes, these pop up from time to time. 'Specially COPD meds.
Making the Rounds A reader sends in this one:
Of course, it would never work. The print would be too fine to read.
Monday March 23, 2009 Another What? Later on this morning, we're supposed to see a public-private partnership unveiled that will cost about $1-trillion more dollars and it's designed to bail us out of the out toxic asset mess. Already, the stock market futures have been run up; but I have observed before that when highly inflationary news appears the market responds well. But the reason isn't that genuine prosperity is being generated, or that a higher standard of living is on the way. Quite the opposite, in fact.
What's likely happening is that as more and more dollars are being printed, the incipient inflation will drive up the cost of all goods, while leaving you with little - if any - additional cash in your pocket. You'll be asked to be a good sheep, pull in the belt a bit, and keep spending away like nothing has changed.
True, a bout of 25% inflation might bring your homes dollar value back to what it once was, but will you be able to afford a gallon of milk? I just paid $3.99 for a gallon last night, and 25% inflation would push it to $5. See this morning's "Coping" section for comments on diversifying personal banking.
That the republicorps' top member on the senate budget committee says the "Obama Budget will bankrupt the US" is merely a sideshow. The real problem, as explained to subscribers to our Peoplenomics premium service, is (in a nutshell) that the "saves us" from disaster hopes are quickly being doused. Sort of like the old engineering/design flow chart joke that went around about 20-years back that had a place in the engineering process labeled "Insert Miracle Here". That's not so funny, anymore, is it? --- Thanks to the time monks up at www.halfpasthuman.com we have a pretty good handle on the u9nderlying reality that is so elusive if all you do is channel flip. The Big Picture is that a huge concentration of wealth has been going on for decades, and the people at the top have stretched greed about as far as can be done before things blow up.
I trust you saw how protesters were out on busses this weekend, visiting the homes of current and former AIG officials? The evolving problem for the PowersThatBe is that there's a danger emerging of something akin to class warfare (think French Revolution) that's quickly emerging and has shown resistance to PTB manipulation. True, some of the tea party web sites have been republicorp efforts, but they are hugely resonant and seem to be building on their own; there's a growing schism in America and little bridging being done. The Orlando 'tea party' this weekend drew more than 4,000 people. Plenty of anger out there.
Since the number of angry is growing, governments infer that there's danger is having too much freedom, so it comes as no surprise that some governments are using the excuse of terrorism to increase surveillance on anyone who decides to participate in non-government sanctioned political thinking. Take for example the Brits new "Anti-terror strategy to be unveiled" next week.
Not that the UK is alone: There are over 1-million people on the no-fly list in the USA anbd that was a 2008 estimate. Governments know that in times of economic Depression, people do take to the streets, and so whether it's something as innocent as carrying a sign peacefully at the WTO meetings, or anything else that may trigger heightened awareness, government is conveniently expanding the definition of terrorist to anyone who ain't buying the same old economic paradigm.
Question is coming for government, though: As the number of protesters turning out for the tea parties grows, how long before TSA no-fly lists will put major airlines out of business? Remember the time monks longer term perspective about 'restrictions on travel'? Well, here we are...
I trust you've been reading recent press and seeing the big push for enhanced drivers licenses? Can you still get an 'unchipped' license? Varies by state, far as I can figure. But even freedom-minded Vermont is testing them. --- The only thing out today in the way of big market drivers is likely existing home sales and the new Treasury plan. Tomorrow may be dead as a doornail from a news standpoint, and then Wednesday durable goods and new home sales. GDP Thursday and personal incomes on Friday.
Maybe one more pullback before Easter, but good strategists like Michael Aronstein are moving back into commodities, betting that prices have bottomed. If you can find decent entry points and apply a little leverage, inflation can be your friend.
That's if you still have anything left from the '07-'09 decline to be thinking about the long side from here. And is it time to go long on metals? Here's an article to think about.
'Dancing Mountains' Department Alaska's Mount Redoubt has blown its lid sending smoke and ash up nearly 50,000 feet. I wasn't going to Anchorage this week, anyway...
Global Gang News You don't hear much about it in the mainstream, but this weekend in Sydney Australia, a biker was beaten to death right in the airport check-in area. ---- I sense a kind of continuum development, in terms of social response to increasing population, social, and economic pressures, and gangs are off toward one end of the developing broad spectrum of 'unhappy peoples." On the move violent end, we see the term "terrorists" applied to Al Qaida and similar groups. Then, right next to that are stories like the one about how "Russian troops destroy 16 terrorists in large-scale anti-terrorist operation" but the story continues...
Tea Parties would be way off at the other end of the spectrum, for now, along with bankster home tours. WTO Seattle would likely be toward the middle if all you did was carry a sign, not the window-breakers, but seems the no-fly threshold doesn't even require that kind of activity.
If you collect trend information, a useful practice is to sort it into a mental 'bit bucket' (to borrow a computer programming term) and label the whole thing as a meta-layer (Ooops, another programming concept) named something like "retribing". Convenient way to frame developments. Retribing being a social response to government failing to listen, failing to maintain the consensus that held things together.
Once started, the trends are self-reinforcing: More retribing results in actions that cause more government response, which in turn causes further tribing...but fortunately it's only Monday and this process happens over much longer periods of time than a day, week, or month.
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Coping: Diversifying Personal Banking A long time ago (2001) and far, far away (San Diego), it occurred to me that the 'normal' view of the stock market, by looking at something like the Dow Jones Industrials for market trend guidance was not a proper way to go about things. For one, most of the stocks in today's average weren't around in the 1930's. For another, even when Dow makes a well-intentioned change in their index, there's no telling how that will skew future perspectives. You can see the stocks that make up the average here.
True, using a broader measure like the S&P 500 (here), you'll get a lot broader picture, but even that will miss some mighty important moments in stock market history. Specifically, what about the trillions that were lost in the Internet Bubble bursting in 2002-2002? Some of us are old enough to remember those heady days when the NASDAQ was up around 4,700.
Consequently, I built a sort of 'index of these indices" and equally weighted them on a dollar basis. In other words, if you had thrown $1,000 at each of the indices back when, this is what your theoretical results would look like. Note that on the far right of the chart for the current data that there's a straight line - and no - that's not the past few weeks of the market, it's what's called a 'tail' so you can clearly see the most recently ending price.
Notice anything peculiar about this chart? Since your coffee may not have kicked in just year, and since mine has, I'd point out that on this 'even dollar chart' the real all-time high of the stock market really was in 2000 and ever since then, we have been experiencing a half-ass imitation of the 1930's Depression. like so...
BTW, a note to Peoplenomics.com subscribers, the Global Index chart, which wasn't displaying correctly yesterday, has now been fixed. If you're not a subscriber (come on, it's only $40 a year) the Global Index is an index of many of the world's major markets all equally weighted including the UK, USA, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, France, and Germany.
Anyway, back on this chart here, and since the futures were pointing to a much higher open today, possibly another one of those violent 3% kinda day, we can see looking at last week's close on the Aggregate that in order to break the downward trend line, I'd expect to see an Aggregate Index number over about 6,800, or so, although there are lots of ways technical analysts draw their parallel price channel lines. I'm sure you've got your own.
Anyway, my point is that we need to see a 17% rally more or less across the board before spring breaks out, profits blossom, and we savor the upside through the middle of July. My personal expectation is, however, that we will still get a better entry point than here, and the kind of thing that will just about ensure that will be bad news from the financial sector. But, checking the www.halfpasthuman.com rickety time machine and the calendar, not just yet. But soon, no doubt about it, and it's getting on time to where I will be moving some dough to a local community bank because I've got a glimmer of what's yet to come for some of the too-big-to-fail types.
Diversifying banking is a pain, no question about it. Not only do you have to go look at the bank, meet the president or VP and size them up, but you also need to ask about how they are clearing. In other words, what part of their services depends on the Big Banks to work?
All of which is not to say that by Big National Bank will fail; it's just that I don't want there to be any interruption of the Life of Elaine and George while things get sorted out. So a three-way split seems to make sense: Some dollars in a Treasury Direct account, hoping the government doesn't close. A few bucks in the Big National Bank because of convenience for travel and such. And then some in a good ol' Texas been-around-forever community bank that's been through banking crisis in the past even long before the banker cabal set up the Federal Reserve in 1913.
I'll also be mailing off my 2008 taxes this week, along with my quarterly filings, since I want to make sure that my account is squared up well in advance.
Not being Chicken Little but there's also little doubt that plans for dealing with a Bank Holiday have already been laid out as a contingence by the government, so my doing a little contingency planning most likely wouldn't hurt, either. And then there's the matter of this email that popped in last week:
The time monks have been seeing this 'death of the dollar' in modelspace for a number of years. Now, with the G20 taking up forsaking the US Buck at their meeting next month, it seems propitious to begin implementing plans.
Do I want the market to rally? You bet. Do I want the economy to pull an amazing snap-back recover? What red-blooded American wouldn't?
But here's the thing: If inflation comes along as I expect as a result of the Obama spending and the Bush/Obama check-writing festival, gold will have nowhere to go but up toward $1,600-$2,000 an ounce, and the purchasing power of saved money will be declining. So in addition to sending off my taxes this week, I've got my eye on long-term durables, like tires for the truck, and maybe a set for the car. Then, more barrels of stabilized diesel, and a list of other goodies; my last dental crown is being fitted tomorrow, so my teeth should be good for a while.
That leaves staying in good health and working on the garden. The fact that Michelle Obama is planting hers should be a huge prompt from the PTB that you should be planting one, too.
Since the rickety time machine point to high inflation in food prices, I'm taking all bets now that we will see footage of MO on the telly by late summer with a voiceover that goes something like "Even the First Lady has been saving money at the White House by working in the Kitchen Garden."
Where's your hoe?
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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(i.e. the Fed) was spawned in 1913 is getting close to
completion.
.
Great refresher, once you've tasted what its like to be in an
open wheel car going 100+ and heading into
was really good way back in the day. And, if you want to do a little
more 'internal work', a copy of
by Alan Watts is a must-read. That concept that we are all
'pieces of God' playing hide and seek with ourselves is pretty
interesting/mind expanding.
