This economy is a what?
Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news
Updated: Saturday October 4, 2008 07:40 CDT
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Is America "On Final Approach" to Financial Collapse?
"Ladies and gentlemen: Please return your financial seatbacks and tray tables to their upright and locked position as the Captain reports we have lost an engine and may experience a difficult landing. In the interest of safety, please assume the survival position outlined in the safety card located on the web site in front of you.. Please make sure the aisles are clear and that all IRA's and retirement plans have been stowed in the investments front of you...."
A number of readers have asked for a special update this weekend on the free www.UrbanSurvival.com and mirror www.IndependenceJournal.com web sites because of the gravity of this week's economic conditions. So, I've put writing this weekend's www.Peoplenomics.com report ("Are Depressions All Bad?") on hold for an hour or so while I run through some of the permutations for next week, remembering that October 7th at 7:10 UTC is the center on the scatter plots of our "hot date" which has been peeking out of the www.HalfPastHuman.com predictive linguistics for more than a year.
This is the same bleeding-edge processing of internet language change that has enabled us to get things like the China Quake right within 2 days earlier this year, caught big events like 2001's 9/11 attacks more than 2-months in advance and captured the essence of other major 'news' events with extreme emotional content very much in advance including the regime change/revolutionary change in Pakistan on August 18th - arguably they were off only 36-hours on that one, having pegged the change at August 17th. (*In deference to their reports, I referred to this as coming back in our Friday May 16th report well in advance of events...")
So we look forward to the balance of this weekend and as late as Thursday/Friday of next week with a heightened state of awareness/concern/trepidation (or 'fear lite') because of predictive elements that go to the idea of:
While we can't give much more than that (plus last week's Peoplenomics report which asked the question "How would you cope with going camping for the rest of your life?" the main thing we've advocated in personal financial structuring so that you become - to as great a degree as possible - downside resistant.
There are plenty of good reasons to have taken our advice to 'prepare for at least 6-months of chaos - and I mean besides the linguistic shifts that are a looming present concern. There are US government web sites that advise people to have a couple of months of preparations and plans to cope with extreme disruptions from elements such as the Bird Flu (www.pandemicflu.gov) but they would work just fine for financial disruptions, too. Thus, any reasonable preparation for a disruption of modern life seems less reactionary than prudent, sorry to say.
The way I look at it, having a bit of food, a couple of dollars of cash on hand, maybe some precious metals, and a mutual assistance plan for your neighborhood all prepped and in place is not paranoia, so much as a reasoned response to a growing threat list that is not only beyond personal control but also likely beyond government control except in reaction to it.
That the U.S. Army's NorthCom now has a (never before done) active unit inside the U.S. which is serving as a ready response unit should it be overlooked - someone in government sees a high risk period to civil order, too. (High bandwidth video capsule).
We have to salute Representative Brad Sherman for outing the potential for this coming Monday for martial law - and how the PowersThatBe we selling fear like crazy in the back rooms of the House of Representatives. I won't even start to review the potential illegality of the Senate originating a spending Bill, because that'll just Executive Ordered away. So much for the Constitution as the ultimate source of authority, eh?
Because Cliff and Igor are continuing to work on processing of linguistic data even now, ,we've arranged to be guests on the Jeff Rense radio program on Monday night- from about 11 PM Monday Eastern to 1 AM (Tuesday) Eastern, or 8-10 PM Pacific to recap and get into anything new that comes our of this weekend's processing.
For subscribers to the actual ALTA (Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis) reports, Part Four of the current predictive run should be posted later today with a preliminary 'event horizon' extending out to the 7-th lunar cycle of 2009 - about mid-summer, which by the way, continues to evolve as a "Summer from Hell" based on the changes in language which appear over the next six months and depict a rapidly declining standard of living, rationing and further restrictions on travel, not to mention shortages galore, here in the U.S.
However, remember, this is only speculative and is based on a still-developing science which is off in a just-being-discovered area of science; an offshoot of radical linguistics. There's nothing we'd like more than to be dead wrong. But I'm not betting that way.
I don't expect us to be - but that is a possibility. So if you prep and nothing happens, just enjoy having good stocks of goods on hand and use them as rotating inventory allowing you to shop bargains in the future and reduce the operating cost of your family/household.
Nevertheless, THE most important bit of news to have handy in the early going next week once we move into the 'event window' could be the NYSE/stock market circuit breaker levels. You'll want to print these out and keep them by your computer for the balance of the year, I expect:
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Thanks to my friend Robin Landry, an independent (and like thinking) broker in Shawnee, Oklahoma, for sending that along. You may recall that I told you Robin move most of his managed accounts into cash about 2,000 points above this week's closing levels back in June or July.
I spoke with Robin after the close on Friday and his outlook for the market is similar to mine: We could see the market continue its decline next week with the potential to drop in the area of 9,700 on the Dow, OR we could see the bottom collapse there and continue down to Dow 7,400. From there, we might then see a highly inflationary B Wave return to the kind of levels we are at now, but in that wave, Landry says he wouldn't be surprised to see gold and silver, along with energy stocks, do extremely well.
OK, so here's my personal take on what I've planned for going forward.
So, come the end of January of next year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the markets down around 7,400 on the Dow and then for Robin Landry's hoped-for "B" wave to begin, although it would likely peak in mid 2009 as the "Summer of Hell" breaks out thanks to continuing/record foreclosures on homes and continuously rising unemployment, which will be used by government for a further expansion of its powers over citizens, instead of what the Framers had in mind - government that was responsive to (and smaller than) the general population. That ship sailed long ago, eh?
I don't know about you, but when the stock market collapses 157-points into the close, as it did on Friday after a trillion dollars was promised this week, I do get a little anxious about events to come next week, especially when we've been talking about that date for months and months based on the work of our learned colleagues with the linguistic time machine.
All we can do now is watch with a kind of emotional detachment, having taken what seem like reasonable steps in order to be insulated to some extent from what could turn into panic.
Cliff and Igor are always pointing out the value of eating pie. I, on the other hand, not being as relaxed about ;'living the news twice' probably over-prepare and over-react in advance of events. For me, a double-shot of rum or vodka on the rocks works better. Admittedly pie's better for you.
Nevertheless, this morning's report is a summary of my expectations based on how I read the data leaking through from the future. Just as the "A" wave down in the markets was the opening of the Great Depression, and he "B" wave (bounce) lasted until the onset of the secondary depression in 1937, which all set the stage for a Kondratiev long wave trough war in the form of World War II, I expect think there's a chance that the events out around 2011-2014 could very easily be seen as that Big Ending that's in religious texts.
Either that, or as we go through the galactic ecliptic out there somewhere, various realities start to leak into our from other dimensions. Along the way, UFO's and disappearances should rise because if there are really other beings who are "not-from-here" we're now in a period of intensely interesting activity here on Ant Farm Earth.
Drop by Monday morning for our usual dose of cynicism and humor as we continue to read the linguistic tea leaves and do our dead-level best to play Nostradamus Lite walking a thin line between Chicken Little ("The sky is falling!") and the Boy Scout creed "Be Prepared!" here in what I've concluded is no longer the America of my upbringing (admitted a half century ago).
"Welcome to chaos in the Checkbook Republic, we'll be touching down in January-February 2009. Have your seat belts securely fastened...."
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A Lifetime of Camping
Imagine for a moment that we're back in mid-summer of 1929 and we had foreknowledge of the Crash of 1929 and were tasked with giving people generally as much forewarning as possible in order that they might be able to prepare for it and help both themselves and fellow countrymen through it with the least amount of hassle/trouble/worry/stress possible, given the epic nature of the changes ahead. Oh, and just to make it a little more challenging, assume the words "Great Depression" had not been coined - as they hadn't. Our modern analog to this is the present day, a limited vocabulary (as labels come after the fact), we think we've got some insight into what's ahead, but the description is limited. There are a few words that have come through the predictive linguistics which can help one prepare for whatever-it-is coming. One of these is Diaspora - essentially the 'scattering of people to the winds' kind of thing. So as a planning construct, how would you plan for it?
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Review of this week's report:
"Live on $10,000" Updated
What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com. Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it.
Friday October 3, 2008
Bailout in the Checkbook Republic
Several people have written asking if the passage today of the House version of the Senate bailout bill changes any of my expectations that we will begin an emotional release period of 5-6 months next week - sometime around October 7th.
I'm sorry to say that it doesn't change a thing. Rememb er that we have a Fannie and Fredie settlement coming up next week, and my understanding is that the way many credit default swaps work, there could be a lot of players who think they have a good solid book next week who could get calls saying something like "The first party defaulted but could only pay us x, and the second party then defaulted but could only pay us z - so now you're on the hook for z many dollars.
The raising of z many dollars should begin any time now, although likely late Monday if my sense of things is right.
So, write down where you heard it first: I think we'll live to regret bailing out the Banksters instead of putting them in jail, and we'd have been better off saving the money to put it into soup kitchens than race tracks and rum and wooden arrows. But, then again, if I'm wrong in the outlook, I just won't have to go grocery shopping for a good long while.
Oh, and as we go to press here on this update, it looks like the market has called 'time out' on the partying, too.
If you ever thought that CONgress would vote the Will of the People, what better proof could you ask to establish the whereabouts of the Checkbook Republic?
Things Don't Add Up (and some that do...)
Yes, we'll likely post a Saturday update because of the gravity of the times, but I gotta get something off my chest right now because it's really bugging me: Remember on the news on Thursday all the Senators telling us words to the effect that "Mainstream now gets it - we need a a 'rescue' plan"?
Well, as I suggested you do, I picked up the phone and called my Congressman's office yesterday (capitalized be cause he voted against the first Bankster Bailout Bill), and apologized for calling them three times in a week, but pointing out that 400+ pages of pork and bullsh*t doesn't / won't taste any better than the Treasury Uber Alles 3-page extra-Constitutional nightmare from round one.
I skipped the part I had planned to remind them of where all spending bills are supposed to originate in the House, because I figured The Decider would just rip up that cornerstone of American governance if he felt like it to get his bankster buddy's Bailout Bill passed...
I won't say the staffer's name, but I asked about that "big swing on Main Street" that was hyped by the Senators earlier this week. "Was that real? I asked the aid. "Aren't calls still running overwhelmingly against the Banker Bailout?" I wanted to know...
"Why sure. I'd guess 100 to 1 against..."
Hold on a minute: So in order for the Senators to be not lying on teevee then it would have to be true that while my Congressman's office is getting calls (about 100 to 1) against the Banker Bailout, there's a whole other universe of people who are going opposite and calling the other way.
'Scuse me, but this seems highly unlikely. I won't call the Sinators involved in this sham & scam outright liars. I'll just offer politely that It doesn't add up. But that's not the only thing not adding up lately. It's just one that I've got a little first-hand knowledge of sitting out here, a nutjob, out of harms way (or so we pray).in the semi-wilds East Texas.
Who am I to believe? An aid with kin right here in the district back home, or a Senator who's getting campaign contributions from the Banksters?
Oh yeah, should mention Dr. Marc Faber's comments on the sincerity of Banksters. He notes, among other things, that if Banksters were sincerely in need of cash they would cut dividends to zero which would free up billions.
Nope. The Banksters aren't going to stop their dividends in order to make it - and in fact, there's actually no provision in the bill to keep Banksters from buying toxic waste low and selling it to the government high, cutting a fat hog for themselves along the way.
Sound like a sweetheart deal for them? Oh yeah.
As I have said before: We will need that $700-billion for soup lines and emergency shelters soon enough - the bankers can suffer along with the rest of us. They're not a 'protected class' and this bailout isn't going to save us when the credit derivative swaps (CDS) market rolls over next with $55-60 trillion involved.
Oh, they forget to mention that there's a sequence to this and the country will be facing serial ransom demands from the financial terrorists who should be in jail?
Second on my list of things that add and things that don't is the huge amount of pork in the Banker Bailout Bill. The San Francisco Chronicle lists the Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands rum business, among others. But will that keep my Cost of Rum Index from going upo at less than the prevailing rate of inflation (which you remember is the rate at which money is being watered down)? Hahaha...what planet you from, pard? $100-million for car race tracks? When we're supposed to be buying hybrids? LMAO...who they kidding?
If you follow the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletins (which I assume you do) you'll remember their article from June of this year about how the fall would be a mess and their advice to governments on 'right behavior' for about now. Which, we note, is being widely ignored.
Yes, our predictive linguistics are still pointing to a 'big something' on October 7th, although something like a banking holiday would come as less than a surprise. I've been telling you to "Flee paper assets!" for a long time just incase the country goes Ameritina (as in 'Argentina-style economic collapse which you should quickly get reacquainted with)...so that when it (or its first cousin) comes along next week (if the garage-built time machine is right) you'll be ready for it.
With the ECB lowering rates half a point this morning, so we've heard, the problem remains that "Money markets frozen, central banks act" but that doesn't force any bank to make loans.
One indicator to watch is what I refer to as the "Lying Interbank's Overnight Night Rate" - LIBOR which continues at record high levels which have always been coincident with an onset of hard times in the past as far as I can tell. Like you hadn't figured that one out, eh?
Next item of the day is that in my former life as a vocational college president, I have always been amazed at how the costs associated with educating young Americans have almost always managed to match the amount of available federal funding. Among sources, besides the odd State of Alaska or tribal grants and such, the biggies for college revenues have been Pell grants, Stafford Loans, and PLUS loans (Parent Loans for Undergraduate Students). I was constantly snickered about because I warned colleagues as early as 2003, or so, that at some point the federal pool of money would likely dry up.
In addition to just being able to see the handwriting on the wall early on my own in this area, the predictive linguistics work of www.halfpasthuman.com has been warning about colleges shutting down and kids returning home to live with the folks again, for something like 9-months. So what is starting to happen is by no means a surprise to me, but if you're kids are at college and you can't write $25-$30-thousand checks for school every year, you might want to budget some time this weekend to getting their room ready because student loans look to me like they will be drying up.
Sadly, this is one of those this that exactly 'adds up'. I knew it was going to happen back in 2003 and although the arrival of the headlines has been slower than I anticipated, we nevertheless read in the New York Times today that "Bank Limits Fund Access by Colleges, Inciting Fears" and with good reason. Higher Ed could implode if the federal funding limits go down because most colleges have taken to operating on what I call the 'continuous expansion of enrollment model' in their business plans. Bad move, but I guess that's why I hung up my college president license (California) and hang out here these days.
Here's the latest: Google news search engine hits on "bailout" is 245,216 while hits on "rescue plan" is 135,827 for a total of 391,043 or 35.646% - holding about steady. Still, spinsters doing good with their 'word use memos' in the networks, huh? I mean way up from 20.some percent last week...
From the Urban(Survival) Dictionary
Classic reader email:
It's here, ain't it? LYMI
Bailout Arnold Department
Say, my drug-o-nomics 101 lecture notes tell me that if California would break the liquor lobby hold on getting high and tax that big cash crop in the Golden State at something reasonable, they could maybe generate new revenue, but hey! That would be too logical... Sick economy and the stuff is for medical use, right?
Latest from the Labor Department this morning...
My usual acerbic comments: The CES Birth/Death Model shows 42-thousand 'hypothetically created" new jobs were part of the mix, including 12,000 new construction jobs in the middle of this economic mess? And what I call the 'unemployed IT Directors Flipping Burgers Index' (table 12, -U6 more formally) was down to 10.6% from 10.7% last month.
Shotgun Merger of the Day
Wells Fargo eats Wachovia for $15.1 billion. $7 bucks a share if youi have any left.
UBS has aimed the HR Department Grim Reapers at 2000 workers if I read this one right.
With the woes of the financial industry, we're not at all surprised to see that Manhattan real estate prices are headed downward A simple if/then kind of relationaship..
Release the Oil!
The Runs: Who Cared?
The Veep debate was on last night. I couldn't get a straight answer out of Palin - but I thought Joe Biden did quite well. Nevertheless, the DrudgeReport has a poll up this morning which shows an overwhelming number of clicks thought Palin won.
But wait! Bet me the GOP doesn't have a cadre of script-kiddies with PERL scripts running to chalk up votes, huh?
Oh yeah, the democorps are being attacked as the Party of Death by the Vatican. But, with the republicorps getting big campaign contributions from the defense sector to keep us fighting in home many countries(?) I have to wonder about the logical consistency of it all...Maybe the Biblical Commandment doesn't apply if there's oil involved...I dunno, maybe it's not in the KJV?
If you're worried about your credit card limits being dropped, the end of the morning latte runs, and don't like the tone of realistic but frightening articles that could portend a Bank Holiday next week (see: "Smack, smack, we're dead" on the BBC site), relax! It's time to play that new American classic "Banker Bullsh*t Bingo" invented by my friend Mike Flagg who runs a blog called "FutureJacked" (and yes, he gets it when it comes to predictive linguistics). Reposted here with his kind permission, but check out his site, too...
If you're new to the game, here's how it works: You print out the .PDF of the game card by clicking here. Or, you can print out the reduced size version here but it might waste some paper):
History & Rules of the Game:
Mike's retooling is based on a popular boardroom game which was developed several years back called "Corporate BS Bingo". I've actually played it back in my six-figure days when no one was looking. Helped to pass the hours and keep me focused on what was going on in meetings...
The way it worked was someone would come into our software company who was a consultant with a big-name outfit. And they were constantly using trite phrases that drove me nuts. "Team building", "take-aways", "action plan", "Tiger team" - you've probably got the concept by now, right?
What Mike has done is turned this into a game you can play while watching TV. Every time you hear one of the phrases on the card, draw a line through it. As soon as you have a complete like, horizontally, vertically, or diagonally, put a line through it, stand up and yell at the top of your lungs "Banker Bullsh*t Bingo!".
This here game may sound a little too close to newsroom/gallows/medical examiner humor, but trust me, things are likely to get so scary over the coming week that you'll thank me for it. Like Reader's Digest says "Humor is the best medicine" and I judge the economy is pretty sick right now and a good dose of doctoring is in order.
Old Answers Still Work
I was musing in yesterday's column about my concept for a FedEx competitor to be entirely based on railroad trains which I'm a great fan of because I don't have to drive, I don't get searched, and they are vastly more efficient than airplanes for moving cargo.
So my bubble burst a bit when I got this email from a reader saying we've already 'been there, done that' on this one...
Hmmm...so OK, since the Decider is into big super agencies, how's about when the Depression gets rolling (if the collapse point next week is right and it lasts through January), how about we get serious about a national rail system that works? Grab the Post Office, Amtrak, nationalize UPS and FedEx and laying all the rails would have to be done by hand to keep millions employed...
Oh, and while we're at it: Require EVERYTHING we use be Made In America. Screw this business of letting corporations play the wage differentials between countries and pocketing the spread and trashing the environment, huh? Go reread this morning's unemployment report...
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Thursday October 2, 2008
I suppose I've ranted about this before (no doubt numerous times) but previously, the fate of our entire country has not been on the line, so it's likely worth mentioning again.
The way politics works in America inside the District of Corruption is that the nominally voter elected (but in reality corporate-controlled) house and senate can't do much of anything in a straight-forward and forthright manner.
If they were able to, they would not be voting of behemoth bailout bills, like the one passed last night 74-25 which was more than 400-pages in length. Remember, this started off as a three-pager which distilled to "Give us $700-billion - or more if we need it - and trust us to be honest and do good..."
The way DC politics works is this: Say you have a real piece of crap legislation like this bankster bailout scam and you want it to pass. Yet, it's so obviously a scam that no one in their right mind would dare pass it. So, how do youi pass it?
Simply throw in tax breaks and pork so that no one who's voting on it would be able to say "No!" In the latest bill, for example, there are some tax breaks. Enough to pay for the bill? Of course not, but enough to water down the string a bit.
If folks in America would like to clean up politics, there's a simple way to do it: Change the rules in CONgress so that a bill can have only one subject and one subject alone. That way, when a CONgressperson votes, it would be clear what they were voting on.
Not that I haven't said this before. You know that the so-called Patriot Act wasn't cobbled up in a few days - it was a control-the-populace bill that was no doubt sitting on a shelf somewhere as 'unpassable' until just the 'right' moment in the wake of a terrorist strike.
Similarly, the present media-fanned 'crisis' is the obvious moment for fat cats to have their way with the pocketbook of Americans...so the stampede it on.
Let's update the "Spin and Win" so horribly evident in the word use around "bailout" and 'rescue plan" as search terms in Google's news search engine. At only 20% and change when I proposed we could watch the spin on language last week, we've seen it pop up to 36.2% yesterday.
Today's numbers at press time? "bailout" hit 233,649 and "rescue plan" hit 130,666 times for a total of 364,315 returns, which means linguistically, support for the banker bailout is down a tad to 35.87% which rounds to 35.9%.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that in the House, action could drag into the weekend.
We also have to assume that the difficulty getting an email through to members of the House and Senate wasn't intentional, although several readers have pondered whether the 'server overloads' weren't just a little too coincidental.
So now let's sit back and coolly assess where we have been, where we are, and whether things may go next:
Let me see....hmmmm...did I leave out anything? There's a bunch of "should I mention?" items, like the rumors on the net about bank closure signs being printed, speculation (for now) that we will have a banking holiday next week in the grand Argentinean fashion (which we've been preparing for, having seen this coming for a long time thanks to the predictive linguistics..).
Nope, that's a short enough overview to go with this morning's cuppa joe. Likely, the Baltimore Sun has it right when they summarize: "Despite sweetening, measure faces stiff fight in House." Today will be my third call to Congressman Hensarling's office this week. The first was to beg him to stand up to the Bankster Bailout (which to his credit he did) and then to thank him. And now, I figure I will put a modest campaign contribution on the table as evidence of my sincerity.
As I explained yesterday, this $700-billion (and beyond) bailout is not going to stop the global marketplace from locking up. As noted yesterday, none of this seems to address the $55-trillion dollar potential of the CDS market to seize up, but we needn't go there.
Next week will be here soon enough.
The Ever Long Free Money Line
Yes, this is quite a scam they have going in advance of collapse coming anyway: The lineup of Banksters looking for free money from the taxpayers is now backed up all the way to Europe where we read that "France seeks $300-billion Euros 'rescue fund' (there's that word again, huh?) for Europe...
Here's the problem: The global economic system is already locking up and we're going to need money in order to bail out humans - to pay for soup lines and such that go with global depressions. They are a repetitive fixture of expand and contract capitalism.
But, instead of exercising restraint, and letting the wild-eyed gamblers take their freaking lumps and saving our hard-fought tax money for meaningful helping of humans not legal entities that play three card monty with offshore proxies, the Banksters and their pals the PowersThatBe are going to force us to 'shoot our wad' now instead of when collapse shows up this winter.
The fat cats will be able to sit things out on a tax-free beach while the rest of us regular humans will go through hell on earth next year. Thanks a bunch...
Here's the really bad news that no one bothers to write about: Passing the $700-billion banker bailout will not solve the problems facing American business. That ship has already sailed and as I pointed out yesterday, the 'sand is already in the gearbox' of the economy.
Besides the condition of my friends & clients (who collectively have over half a million being held up in payments to their firms because of banksters becoming financially 'retentive' if you follow my drift, we are reading that this is becoming commonplace.
I suppose there're a few bright spots. Like Sony reporting that "PlayStation 3 sales better than expected" but honestly, with CONgress in session who needs the distraction of lesser games?
Lords of War Department
We notice today that a new State Department brief on "China report urges missile shield".
I'm not sure what the definition of insanity is, so let's put this into perspective. during the Cold War, the world built enough warheads to blow up the whole planet maybe three or four times over, dig? OK, then along came a few highly controlled tests of missile defense systems and "Presto!" we have the thermonuclear equivalent of a Kevlar vest with a chest plate.
But, let me ask you this: How much money do you think we oughta pour down that rat hole - or how much would it take - before you would be comfortable living in the target city while some multi-megaton warhead is thrown at your family. Trust this high tech missile Kevlar that much?
Of well, WTF. If the Banksters don't get it, the %-pointed building will...some things never change. Which is why archeologists find green sand of ancient antiquity - seems we're all just repeating an old play...
SE Gas Lines
I was surprised to drop by the local Chevron station on the way to the bank in Tyler, Texas yesterday to find out they were out of premium and half & half. I was able to fill 'er up on regular though.
But that reminded me to keep an eye on the 'stealth gas crisis'
that without the shenanigans in DC would be the lead story
end in sight to southeastern US gas shortage" reports Car
A lot of people who read this site have a few gold coins stashed here and there, either as a hedge against inflation, or just for the comfort of owning something that government can't just print more of on a whim. Consequently, I occasionally go looking at headlines about gold.
Lo and Behold chilluns - check this out: A Kate Moss 50kg gold statue has been unveiled at London's British Museum. Thems that have, gets.
The Runs: Doubles Talk
It's the Sarah and Joe Show tonight. I'll be sleepin' not Veep'in. Just seems a better use of my time.
But Wait!!! Not to go off on a completely linguistic track here, but I was listening to I think it was Fox News during one of my 'world's about to end insomniac moments overnight. Am I the only one who caught the referencing to "Governor Sarah Palin and Joe Biden" and noticed the title one was used, but not the otherness of it?
See how subtle the programming by the PowersThatBe that own the media is? Right down there at the preconscious level. LOL.
Panama Bates, up here for our October 7th window, has it right on politics: "Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations." Hoo- rah MSgt. Hoo-rah.
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Here's one for you: We all know that the single most efficient way to move things around over great distances (that don't involve water) as a reasonable speed is railroads, right? Way more fuel efficient than airplanes, for example.
And, we also know that trains pretty much run on a schedule...
So...if I have some decent start-up capital, I would propose we form a new package delivery system which would be called "Tomorrow Express". The idea is to take on the current category players in the slow delivery sector.
To do it, you could have all packages bar coded and a special cars run on each train. Rather than the FedEx model (ship everything to a central place, sort, and fly it back out, this system would be specifically decentralized. A computer-generated tag would route the packages from train to train. This would create some local employment, but more important, I think it would save a lot of energy.
Just something to model if you have some capital, a supercomputer, and see (as I do) that at the other end of the financial mess developing, there will be a dollar devaluation that will perhaps triple the cost of energy making things like "Tomorrow Express" a good idea...
A reader writes:
Good question, and although there's no precision to the rumors on the net about 'bank closed' signs being printed, or things like that (no doubt rumors only for now) I would expect sports to continue as long as there is money flowing. If the money flow slows dramatically, to the [point where sports teams can model out a few weeks and figure that they'll be bankrupt if they continue to play...that's when sports would end.
That, or a month or two period of mourning following a mushroom-shaped terrorist attack...
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Around the Ranch: Noodle Me This
My little sister (OK, retired, but still little sis) showed up for our October 7 something's gonna happen or it's not gathering at the ranch and brought with here about a dozen packages of Rose Brand Chinese Egg Noodles. Am I the only one who is a noodle connoisseur? Apparently not. Seems a lot of folks from the Pacific Northwest are semi-addicted to noodles and various specialty oyster sauces available only in areas with large Asian populations. My sister told me that she has a friend who regularly sends them to a relative in Nawlins.
How about that? The Peak Oil people are probably not going to like me for such indulgences, what with their references to the "3,000 mile Cesar salad" and all. But hey! This is only a 1,900 mile long noodle...and of higher caloric content. Believe me, I'm saving for a rail car full...
Guess what I'm having for breakfast today....
Wednesday October 1, 2008
Call Your Senator and Tell them NO!
Oct. 7 Watch: Sand in the Gearbox
If you're just returning from a stay in another dimension, welcome back to Earth one week from the edge of financial chaos and lifestyle change if the fledgling science of predictive linguistics is right - and it may or may not be. But, we can sure see chaos and change/transformation showing up now in ways that seem likely to act as sand in the gearbox of Western civilization.
Even without a complex model of language change over time, we can reasonably expect that...
We continue to watch the language shift around this, too. The term bailout is up to 212,631 returns on the Google news search engine (That like should give you a current look - it's changing all the time.) Meantime, the term 'rescue plan' is up to 120,561. That's 333,192 total for the two, and of that, the term 'rescue plan' is up a tad to 36.2% of use, which means the spin may have run its course for now --- but that will no doubt change when we get to events of next week.
People continue to ask "What will the 'event' be late this week or next, that could be so HUGE that it would meet all the language criteria?"
Let me explain how sand in the gearbox works. Let's say you have a very high performance gas turbine engine and it's reduced to a useful output shaft via a large precision-built gearbox. Let's further suppose that the turbine is a mighty one, putting out 1,000 horsepower at 15,000 RPM and the output is geared down to only 2,000 RPM.
Under normal conditions, the turbine spins up, the gears turn and the power comes out the other side of the gearbox. But when you throw just a few grains of sand in the gearbox, things start to fall apart in a nonlinear fashion.
Upon the addition of the few grains of sand, maybe only one bearing is scored and starts to throw off more heat than it should. That in turn causes the lubrication fluid to heat up - and that heating causes a critical gear to expand - and that in turn causes more heating - and then suddenly, the point where required lubricity falls below a required threshold and the system begins to seize up. A gear tooth breaks. Then another. And then the high speed gear fails and being unbalanced and spinning at 10,000 RPM on the input side of the gearbox, it is suddenly thrown out the side of the gearbox. That's how it ends.
Linguistically, that's an approximation of where we are right now - at the leading edge of this 'nonlinearity' to arrive [around] October 7th at 7:10 AM UTC that will be to financial systems, analogous the gearbox actually flying apart.. Although it's a moment in time, it's really just a peak in an immense scatter plot in Cliff's modelspace around which the actual event will occur.
OK, where's the sand?
As I pointed out yesterday (and it's on MarketWatch today, there's an analyst who says that credit card debt will be the next shoe to drop.
The only way to prepare for that kind of event would be to have a little cash on hand and have all you will need to live for three or four weeks - and keep that level of food stocks on hand at all times because without them, you will likely be caught out by the financial storm when it breaks. And yes, the arrival of an Army unit from Iraq for 'emergency use' in North America under NorthCom is likely related.
Seems possible that someone in military planning has seen the same potential for a
However, conspiracies aside, there's a very ugly problem summed up with the question "What will happen in critical big cities if/when the banking system and/or credit cards seize up?" That's why we've got a library - it'll be something to do come the Bank Holiday which could arrive shortly based on the nonlinearity of events.
Not just credit cards, though. I would expect there will be some ripple-out impacts from what is leaking out as a "Severe fuel shortage grips part of the US southeast..."
But the real 'sand in the gearbox' is the global competition for capital. As you may (or may not) be aware, and I am grinding on this point today because the Senate is voting on the bailout - already turned down by the House - the U.S.A. requires about $2-billion per day in foreign purchase of our debt in order to continue importing goods to the USA and to send money elsewhere to do things like pay for all those folks in India who staff call centers and outsourced IT departments.
When (not if because they'll keep at it till the bankers get their 'get out of jail and money for nothing card, despite the Will of the People) that will add another $2-billion a day to our foreign investment requirement.
Guess what? I think the global market will collapse.
One of the best argument I've seen against the bailout is a working paper from the Chicago Fed titled "Derivates and Systemic Risk: Netting, Collateral, and Closeout". It has been the long-held view that the global craps game with derivatives could be played somewhat safely; analogous to thinking a 5-year old child could play with plutonium safely. Here's the abstract from the paper:
Now I may not be completely awake yet, but it seems that the last sentence here gets to the idea that reduction of risk in financial markets may be more hypothetical than real - as we are linguistically slated to find out next week.
If that seems a little high falutin for you, a more pedestrian version of the problem was summed up yesterday in a CNNMoney/Fortune report: "The $55-trillion question: The financial crisis has put a spotlight on the obscure world of credit default swaps - which trade in a vast, unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?
Give my read of Cliff's linguistic outputs in the HPH ALTA reports, The range of expectations I hold right now for next week include:
As we see the markets about to open today, the Dow has had a very good bounce. In fact I told a colleague yesterday that when markets do a major decline (like Monday's 777 point nosebleed) the 'normal' dead cat bounce is right around the Golden Mean. In other words, if you take the 777 point drop Monday and multiple by the Golden Mean (0.618) you should get close to yesterday's close. Is 5 points close enough?
I recommend that you view the Karl Denninger video on YouTube here: It argues that the Bailout is northing more than a buy-off of foreign countries to keep them from essentially foreclosing on America!
You Get to "Save Global Finance"
If you think Denninger is off base, think again. The head of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude "Trichet says U.S. must rescue 'Global Finance'. But what these weasel-wording banksters aren't telling you is that you are going to be personally put on the hook to save corporate globalism. How's it feel? Lose your home, your car, and the list goes on. And God forbid you get credit 'forgiveness' - if you do, expect to get 1099'd on that and a tax bill to pay.
I urge you to call both your state's Senators today and tell them not to bail out the bankers.
Right now, banks are doing everything they can to put pressure on America. A client in Chicago is out 60+ days on $300K while another who has been getting regular checks in 5-days is now out 30. Credit card limits are coming down. And in the end, there's nothing in the world that is going to save a $55-trillion CDS market. The legislation in Washington is only the start.
Let's just let it go, work through it, and get back to honest finance now because we're already going to experience a meltdown anyway come late this week or next.
The sand's already in the gearbox.
That would be nice, but I think rather unlikely, since only bad things come through in predictive lingusitics for reasons that are way to deep to get into this morning. But as to emotional building and release? An emotional build period is like when you're in the process of getting madder and madder about something. The release language is when you strike out.
Maybe like the PowersThatBe are now getting angry/fed up and then starting October 7th, they begin to 'punish the people'? I'm just saying....
This is a Confidence Booster?
With word out today that the FDIC wants to temporarily boost bank deposit insurance limits over $100,000 up to $250,000, I find myself asking two very disturbing questions:
1) How are they planning to pay for it?
2) What do they know that we don't? Devaluation of the dollar, maybe? So that if the dollar's purchasing power falls in half and prices double, the insurance would still cover folks with $100,000 in an account? Sheesh!
;-) Wouldn't be all bad - such a money-printing binge would cause gold and commodities to double overnight, but there's be force majeures on everything paper, I'm sure, so no sure win there except owning physical.
Here Comes Rationing
Remember, we've been telling you that 'rationing' will be going hot as the year progresses? Well, economics is not the driver, but here's the headline that "Meat must be rationed to four portions a week, says report on climate change..."
Did we, or did we not tell you?
And yes, emails coming to light suggest the White House was involved in firings of 9 U.S. Attorneys. Quick, look surprised.
Here's an interesting report out of Ireland about a UFO sighting discussed at a conference this past weekend. Linguistically 'disappearances' come along next year, so we are watching this UFO stuff with a slightly jaundiced eye just in case.
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Coping: Today's Most Important Item
Due to the proximity of the October 7 events, starting today I would suggest:
October 7th area events are not guaranteed, but if you do these things, you have no downside and only upside if the wheels come off the economy in this patch of time.
I plan to do this daily until we get past the window.
Financial History Notes
A reader took me to task for asserting that we've had currency failures before and lived through them. Here's the email which is very interesting:
Excellent points all....
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Tuesday September 30, 2008
What Part of NO!" Don't They Understand?
Talk about your basic "putting lipstick on a pig' move, the Bush administration along with the tweedle this and tweedle that presidential wannabes are mounting a massive push for another turn at the bailout bill.
The latest stampede is to increase FDIC insurance to $250,000 - like that's going to help when the nation is already near enough technical bankruptcy already (and FDIC has how much money left?) - especially if you count the off balance sheet accounting practiced so that the corpgov party can run the show along their own agenda rather than, or in spite of, the will of the people.
I don't know about you, but I'm calling my Congressional delegation, and in particularly republican Congressman Jeb Hensarling from our district here in Texas to thank them for having the backbone to stand up to the bankster bailout. I suggest you do the same. Call your representative and ask them how they voted and give them thanks or ask why they are stone deaf to the People.
While it's true that the stock market will likely decline without a bailout, the problem I've had with the bailout from the start is that the main argument in favor of it seems to be that without it, the market will decline. Honest disclosure is a threat? A company taking excessive risks and being reckless should be saved? What planet are we on here?
When the hell did America start live in fear of an honest reckoning of financial excesses and greed and agree to being held hostage for a $700 billion ransom by Banksters? There was a $630-billioni injection yesterday by the Fed on their own. Did is help anything? My friends are still having trouble meeting payroll because payables are stretching out - but that's one of those numbers the MSM and Mainstream Economic Sages (MES for obvious reasons) can see to figure out.
Is the market overpriced? You bet! Is food? You bet! Has globalism stolen real tangible jobs from America? Uh huh! Could it all come down around the elite and a lot of uber-rich feel pain? Oh well... welcome to Main Street.
About 15 years ago, the high rollers of Wall Street began making huge bets based almost purely on compounding interest. Prior to that time, interest paid on investments was characterized by two components: the chance of failure and the compound interest. Chance of failure has always been an element of interest - but not in 'free do-over land' it seems.
So here we are, with are in a slowdown underway and the handwringing and wailing is about that the fallout could be 'painful' if the bailout is not "reconsidered". In what has become a blasphemous abuse of process, government will likely just keep resubmitting the bill (with more lipstick and deals in it) until it is finally passed in spite of the obvious Will of the People.
As I see it, the greater danger is that we forget what honest accounting is (we're way down that road already, of course), the role of 'risk of failure' is is still real when computing interest rates despite the psychobabble of the quants, and that political swindling has become the normal course of events in the District of Corruption.
Remember, these are the same folks who sent you a tax 'rebate' check a while back. What they didn't remind you at the time was that except for the military recipients, most of us will have to pay income tax on that 'freebie' next year. And you know that all those Social Security 'payments' don't sit in a vault - they're just promissory notes piled up like so much paper...and again, I come back to my inherent mistrust of paper as a storehouse of value.
We've had currency failures before and lived through them - go read up on Continentals and Greenbacks.
Can we trust them to do a clean rewrite of the bailout? I doubt it..
But more to the point: What part of "NO!" wasn't didn't they understand?
The Start of the Beginning (of the End)
What we are witnessing now, being semi-aware observers thanks to Cliff's work, is linguistically only the initial tumblers falling in the lock that will finally open around October 7th. If you're one of the millions of American's who lost between 6 and 8 percent of your investment values Monday, it wasn't because we hadn't been saying unequivocally "flee paper assets - buy real things with utility value" and only then if there's anything left, play with paper".
Water under the bridge today, and although there's talk that the White House and CONgress will try to rework the bailout, the tumblers are already falling that unlock whatever next week has in store.
One of the most pressing questions of the day is "Was yesterday IT?" Heck no. The latest HalfPastHuman (HPH) advisory explains why: What we're hearing is not emotional release language, it's still emotionally building language:
All of which is not to say things are tense enough already; witness the overwhelming of the House computer system after the vote. I plan to call the members of my Congressional Delegation today and see if they voted for the will of the people, or if they were on the bankster's side in the bailout. A thank you and congratulations will be offered for those who did, and a campaign check for whoever opposes them if they did not. The follow-up being as important as the voiced sentiments beforehand. And, unlike Congress, my position hasn't waffled and is not easily swayed.
Although it is strictly at the 'rumor' stage, we're hearing that already, ships in foreign ports which would be loading goods bound for the U.S. market are falling behind schedule. A word from Africa here, a note from Asia there. In all, minor tumblers, but they make clicking noises, nevertheless.
A much louder clicking noise is coming from the credit card sector where already headlines admit that credit card limits are being lowered. But, lowering of credit card limits would not be the end of the financial world. I'm seriously more concerned about the potential for credit card use impacts if, as rumors on the 'net have it, further credit may simply NOT be extended to persons with a credit worthiness score under 750. If at all.
Let you think "Ah, there goes ol' George, that nutter in the piney woods of East Texas, again..." try to remember that we've been on the right track so far on how events will unfold. Then go read in the Globe and Mail under the headline "Credit cards to 'implode:' analyst."
Not to sound alarmist here, but have you cobbled together a personal operating plan as to how you'll survive if/when the credit system get thoroughly bollixed up in, oh, say a week with whatever is coming our way October 7th or thereabouts?
When 'whatever' gets here, one of the things about IT that wouldn't surprise me would be that IT may have an aspect of a rich vs. poor aspect. A hint in that direction comes from the president of Brazil who is blaming rich nations of the world for the crisis, although Brazil's stock market closed for a while Monday due to investor panic.
Our sources indicate that watch events around president Lula da Silva and other South American leaders is warranted - as there's a global 'coming up" among smaller economies that those in the West which are arguably seeing the position of dominance eroded by the untimely arrival of financial reality.
That Venezuela is to build nuclear technology in partnership with Russia and the recent oil deal Hugo Chavez cut with China argues that resource-rich countries in South America, and Brazil which has been working with a much larger biofuel economy than the West, will be the up-and-comers as events continue to constraint what I only half-kiddingly call "Western Corporate Paperism."
A couple of readers have asked "What can I do about it?" The answer is, except for getting camping gear, figuring out a way to heat your home so the pipes don't freeze this winter if there's no oil or gas to be had, not much. We're doing our last-minute topping off of our propane tank this week.
A couple of 50-pound sacks of rice, some vitamins, cases of beans, and toilet paper, are certainly still available, but for how long is anyone's guess.
Already, we have that nagging gasoline shortage rotating around the US Southeast, and if the future of credit cards seems dubious, then we wonder how long energy companies will go before imposing limitations on gasoline cards as well.
So that's where I think we are this morning - a dead-cat-bounce is almost certain at some point in the markets, but now that we have broken through what Shawnee Oklahoma broker Robin Landry calls critical support in the area of 10,458 +/-, it likely means that a big decline is underway and barring some miraculous honest restructuring plan the events of this week are so far likely to be little more than the Start of the Beginning.
Collapse Going Global, II
The story out of the UK about a banker leaping to his death in front of a 100 MPH train is worth reading. Pressure is not something felt only in American markets now.
And let's not overlook France which has a climbing unemployment rate and nearly 2-million people out of work. The government there is promising action soon...
But the story to watch is the suspension of trading again today in the Russian market. This is what, third time in the past 10 sessions or so?
The Runs: Does Anyone Care?
Apparently not many: Only 52.4 million watched the McCain/Obama first debate, reports Nielsen. Hmmm...gee...do you think it has anything to do with the candidates not offering a wide range of differences?
US Attorney Firings
The Bush administration may have to come up with more answers shortly as a report our about the firing of certain U.S. Attorneys seems to point toward higher ups in the Justice Department for a series of controversial firings... Gee: Imagine the Bush administration underlings doing things motivated by revenge or favoritism. Shocking. Just like the headline "Ex-CIA official pleads guilty in corruption case."
I never cease to be amazed at the genius of American marketers. I mean, how many ways are there to make a simple hamburger? Well, obviously lots. I have a friend of some 20-years who lives in L.A. and has been something of a hamburger connoisseur. He'd go anywhere just to try a different take on a hamburger. I used to think that was bad, until I went through a period of questing for the world's best veal picata. And then, just as soon as I got over that, it was a quest for the best war mein noodles and won ton soup. Search for the best lasagna seems likely to be next...
Ah, the joys (while they last) of serial obsessing. Fortunately, I'm old enough to order a square burger...maybe my friend is onto something...
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Coping: Stoved Up
We've been having lots of discussions internally here at the ranch about how to cook if/when the grid ever goes down for more than a short-term storm related power outage. We've got the usual goodies - the sun oven, the BBQ with plenty of fuel for a while, and a two burner gas unit from www.harborfreight.com which can be had without hose or regulator for about $37 ex freight.
Contributing some gray matter, the time monks have a favorite - something called the Big Bear Sheephered heat and cook stove with a water heating option. Have to agree with them - Seems to be about the most bang-for-the-buck I've seen in the category.
Watch Them Chilies
Speaking of things hot and in the kitchen, did you see where a "Chef dies after eating 'superhot' chili for bet?" Memo to self: Don't take dumb bets.
No Way Out
If you've thought about losing your American citizenship, that's getting progressively harder to do - not that we would, but there are some who've asked. Check out this report which goes into even more details than a recent Peoplenomics article.
"Tenants says dead casts used to try and evict them." Seems some landlord practices sink.
Send Up a Six-pack Department
Next time you're stuck for a long ride aboard the International Space Station, you might call PayPal founder Elon Musk and talk to him about sending up a six-pack or a cheeseburger aboard a SpaceX rocket. That becomes possible since the launch of the private rocket Falcon 1 into space Monday.
Watch the Exits
If you don't make a practice of regularly spying the exits every time you go to a restaurant or a club, you might want to put that on your personal behaviors to ad list. Being close to an exit always seemed to me like a good thing, whether on a plane or in a theatre, or whatever.
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Monday September 29, 2008
Outrageous! 10% of GDP To be Used to Fight Crisis?
Here's some simple math for you: The Fed headline just crossing that the "Fed Pumps Further $630 billion into Financial System" and couple that with the $700 billion being begged in CONgress today. That, in case you're slow on the uptake is about $1.33 trillion dollars. Now just to keep that in perspective, that's about 10% of everything made in the USA in an entire year.
No, that doesn't include current taxes, debt service, and what have you's.
Have a nice day - work extra hard.
I Call It B.S. -- The Fix Is In
Let's have a little chat about "Bailout/Stabilization" with the first cup of coffee this morning. The long and short of the discussion ought to begin with "Do we believe in 'free markets' or not?" The answer is important because in genuine free markets, banks would be failing by the dozens and the folks who set up a floating craps game based on your regular house payments as a revenue stream beneath it all, would be thrown out of business (and in jail for fraud) and while there would be momentary pain and suffering, the 'free market' would do its job and clear out the misinvestment and malinvestment that has characterized serial bubbles since 2000.
If you think that's a snide reference on my part to the Internet Bubble, Housing Bubble, and now the Housing Bubble Collapse, and now the Banker Bubble, congratulations, you have a pulse, it's Monday, now get your ass back to work.
With just over a week to go until our "hot date" of October 7th shows up, hot based on the predictive linguistics work of www.halfpasthuman.com, we read this morning how the PowersThatBe are trying to 'fix' the outcome of the present 'bailout debate' in Washington so as to save the hides of the Bankster Class and do as little as possible for the back-home folks who write the checks.
Not that this is a 'first time' kind of event, but the grandeur of this latest scheme to steal from the American public is almost unbelievably large. So large, in fact, that most people won't look it square in the eye and call it "crime" - although that's more of less what it is. Until it's passed by CONgress, then it becomes law. Magic.
While I realize that's a serious charge to be made, a conversation with my friend The Bond Dude, made it perfectly clear to me that this latest "bailout" is nothing more than the bought-off right wing/conservatives getting one more big pay day from the corporate trough.
For openers, the proposed bailout does about zip - other than make promises which we've heard bandied about previously, to the folks who actually go to work trying to hang onto their homes.
"Until these geniuses can actually do something about the underlying causes of the problem, explained The Bond Due, the economy is going to crater and we'll get to your Bastille Day."
He then went on to explain that one of the biggest scam-parts of the proposed legislation is this one:
As he explains it, this is not exactly an "insurance plan" because in "insurance" there's a shouldering of risk before the hazard shows up. And that's clearly not the case in the present bill.
"I think of it as going to a place where people are dying - a hospice - and selling insurance to people who are going to die. It might play well to a few, but there's the ugly matter of the premiums haven't been paid," he explained.
"And the proposal to grant a tax holiday to allow non-financial companies - people who have nothing to do with the crisis is purely a 'get out of jail free card - well, says TBD, that's just ludicrous.
I assume you know that huge numbers of the uber-rich take very little pay here in the USA, and instead have stock options and stock itself paid offshore. They 'age' this money for a year then live on the repatriated funds (brought back to the US) taxed at a nominal 15% long term capital gains rate rather than paying the "graduated income tax" appropriate to their actual income levels.
The only folks who get stuck with higher rates are folks like us'ns.
As he reads it, the proposed bill let's corporations that have nothing to do with housing to bring their money back at essentially zero capital gains. Sweet deal, or what?
I don't know as its necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of how the bill would allow firms repossessing homes to use private police forces, as long as they were anointed by the Treasury Ober...I mean Secretary.
So when I read how "The Bill is expected to be passed this week", I think to myself there could not be a clearer example of supposedly 'elected officials' handing out the goodies to their pals who write the checks and becoming woefully deaf to the will of the voters whom they are theoretically serving.
Checkbook Democracy is NOT a founding cornerstone of the Great Nation...at least till the pretenders calling themselves Republicans, voting like Socialists, staged their banker coup.
Let's roll back the clock to a more reasonable period of American history: Last Friday. I wrote then that:
That's 20.85% being 'rescue plan' last week.
Miraculously we arrive here at Monday to discover that in the last full week before our "hot date", the PTB have done a massive sell-job byh changing language on us:
That means since you went to work Friday morning, the language around you has changed so that more than 35% of references are pushing the 'rescue' idea on you.
Hate to make it so plain, but as the old Hendrix song said (All along the Watchtower) ""So let us stop talking falsely now, the hour's getting late..."
OK, OK, "How does this work?" you're wondering. Let me take you to school here for a minute.
American's don't want to bailout the banksters. Why? The word bailout implies jail, wrongdoing and further, that someone has done something wrong to get there. Yeah, that sums up what has been going on pretty finely, don't you think?
On the other hand, America is almost the Land of 'Rescuers' - the term rescue has been planted into your mind at a very deep level as being a good thing. We're rescuing the people of Iraq from a despot who has been out of power for how long? We're rescuing the heroin trade in Afghanistan by keeping the military's hands tied just so, and now, lo and behold, we're rescuing crooked bankers and only making vague promises to the people who write the checks.
An MSM editor I know says words to the effect that "Yeah, memos on word use do come around..." Ahem, in the interest of 'accuracy', LMAO.
At least let's have the sense to call this the "Banker Rescue Bill" as it does nothing tangible - just more promises - for homeowners...
Oh yeah, and there are lots of protests that the MSM is blacking out. Gee, checkbook media and checkbook democracy - what a fine combo, huh? Why we're doing a fine job in catching up with Panamanian politics, aren't we?
Why with just a few more special interest bills, like this banker bailout and we'll be able to catch up with Zimbabwe if we work extra hard at it.
Whether the bill actually passes, or not, outfits like the UK's "Market Oracle" have headlines to the effect that "Stock Market Crash is Inevitable".
Sadly, since this whole web site going back to 1996/1997 is about the Kondratiev Long Wave in economics, it's now here, again. The first time a crash was likely was in the fall of 2001 when America's enemies launched the Twin Towers attack which actually bought the country an economic reprieve in the form of a couple of new wars. And it gave house-flipping a toehold.
Now that a Great Unraveling is in sight, we're reading how "Banks may invoke "market disruption" clause to raise mortgage rates." Gotta love these Banksters, huh?
Take off the blindfold, and put out that cigarette, Wachovia isn't going to the wall. Been bailed out by Citigroup - and FDIC says this means they didn't fail.
As we approach next week, we're in the same kind of position as back then. The only issue is whether terrorism will show up and with it, bring an excuse to clamp down even more on American's Rights, or whether the system will just implode of its own excesses and inability to deal with real problems in a head-on forthright manner.
Newt Gingrich's call for the resignation of the Treasury Secretary over the "Un-American Bailout" will no doubt fall on deaf ears. What would a former House Speaker with no PAC checks coming in know, anyway...
And the scare tactics are all over the place: "Bailout failure 'will cause US Crash' proclaims one headline. Of course the truth is that it's not the bailout failure that will trigger a crash, it will be a global recognition that the so-called, but not really 'federal' reserve has been printing way more money than a sound economy requires, and after getting us hooked on debt to such an extent that most people have to use a credit card to buy coffee in the morning!
Don't say no one told you, but if the predictive linguistics are as right as they have been about previous past 'big headline' items like 9/11, the Space Shuttle disaster, this year's China quake, and KatRita - just to name a few), this will be your last week or "normal" before the brown smelly stuff and that rotating air movement device make intimate contact next week. So enjoy the last week that will pass for normal.
Until then, I'm going to call it was it is: B.S. Bailout/Stabilization.
PIE of course not meaning huckleberry, but instead Personal Income and Expenditures. And here's the latest numbers:
Hmmm...now what could have happened to decrease personal income so much? Inflation? Resetting ARM's (another dandy overlooked in the B.S. bill, or maybe it's lower wages, layoffs, and predatory 26% credit cards? Hand me a dart, wouldja? This PIE isn't very good...
While You Were Sleeping
CONgress handed out $25-billion of your tax dollars to the automakers. And in the genuine globalist philosophy, foreign-owned automakers with US plants over 20-years old get to saddle up to the trough, too. So look for equal deals from Honda and Nissan.
Golly, you're generous with your tax money.
The story about the Somali 'pirates' who have seized a Ukrainian cargo ship loaded with Soviet era military weapons makes an interesting read. Especially if you take it in the context of Robert Kaplan's book "The Coming Anarchy" - which seems pretty much coming true.
Islamist bombings aren't limited to the West, as evidenced by the 17 dead from a blast in Damascus that killed 17.
Middle East Peace Map
Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says Israel must give up almost all the West Bank in order to achieve peace with the Palestinians. Makes sense to me, which I suppose jinxes the idea...
Lots of news items about Venezuela lately that are very interesting. For example, there's the report that Russia is going to help them build a nuclear reactor.
But there's a lot more going on. "Iran, Venezuela determined to expand ties" says the Tehran Times. Real or agitprop?
But just so we don't lose sight of it, remember the story from last week that Hugo "Chavez sees 1-million-barrel oil exports to China." That's the biggie because if I have the numbers right, that would be a significant fraction of their output which is presently all being sucked up by the US.
And why do you suppose that is?
One theory is that it may have something to do with refining capacity in the US. I assume you've been following the scattered gasoline shortages in places like North Carolina, and in the Tennessee area.
While one refinery at Port Arthur (TX) is reported underway, there's a lot of capacity yet to go although getting little press.
But maybe Chavez is playing it safe since oil exports to the US could become less lucrative if/when the economy melt down and resultant devaluation of the dollar (which will drive oil up by a corresponding amount domestically) comes to pass.
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Coping: Water Filtration
This weekend on Peoplenomics, we got into how to prepare for a six-month to year-long camping trip. Kinda like Houston residents are going through, except more generalized (country-wide) and less damage to start from. A subscriber took me to task for not getting more into water filtration systems and because that's absolutely a necessities of life (not to mention vodka and water requires water), here are some of his comments:
Good points, all....
Today's definition of the day from the Urban Dictionary is a classic if you need a shot of humor with your joe.
Email of the Day
Send snip and save notes to email@example.com
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Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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