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Replaying 1929 "Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change newsUpdated: Saturday May 24, 2008, 2008 07:55 -- CDT The Early Briefing In depth perspectives are for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com |
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Life in the Paperdigm If the stock market seems a little wonky this week, it's because most people don't understand the repricing battle that has been going on as the US dollar begins its next decline, as it demonstrated this week. You'll recall in my Monday report, prefaced by the headline "Dollar Crash Week" I explained how the dollar looked to be in for rough going this week. You can click the daily dollar chart over at www.ino.com and judge for yourself the quality of the prediction.
As I read it, the US dollar, the US buck went from a Monday mid-session high of about 73.1 on the NYBOT to a Wednesday low of 71.85 plus or minus an exchange fee or hamburger. That's a 1.7% slide in just a couple of days, and where I come from, that would be a pretty good call - definitely a short term trade on the commodity side (I didn't participate, though).
More importantly, July NYMEX crude settled out around 132.19, but a move up from 129.93 to the closing high would be accountable by the currency swing alone. --- Flipping over to Yahoo Finance's historical data, I notice that the Dow which closed last week close to 12,987 dropped to near 12,480. That's a loss of roughly 507-points --- I figure that collective entity which makes up the PowersThatBe are seriously worried about the nervousness of the sheeple when this kind of damage is done to the country's best-known index when CNBC's Jim Cramer spends the opening of the Friday after-closing segment preaching the values of cash and repeating the Street truism that declines are going to happen and they are the best time to buy stocks because they are cheap.
All true enough, provided that you're still willing to play in the paper asset game which I call the 'paperdigm'. "Expect Corrections, Don't Fear Them" says a Thursday article on the Cramer site. --- The CNBC contest - the Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge has be interesting to watch. I decided to take a single-decision strategy and bought nothing but precious metals stocks (four of them at 25% allocations each) and just 'let it ride' for the duration of the contest. Knowing how I feel about "paper assets" this should not surprise you too much.
For the week just ended my 'single decision' approach (essentially four darts at the metals group) was good enough to move my portfolio up 8.5% for the one week I've been playing which earns me a rank of 26,416 in the game, although if I'm right about what's to come, my rank should get up to the top 5,000 or so by the end of the game.
Of course, since I'm using the output from the 'fuzzy time machine' which seems to suggest a particular movement in the PM's is ahead, it will be interesting to see how well 'single-decision' investing works out between now and when the contest ends on July 18th.
If you've always wanted to see what kind of investor you are, this is a fine opportunity to do some 'paper trading' and see how good (or bad) you are compared with the Universe of players in the game. --- As for next week? My guess - and this is not trading advice, it's only because I'm in the CNBC contest, is that the market will go lower Tuesday/Wednesday and then put on a week ending rally. The technical indicators I watch are either or, or approaching "oversold".
My commodity account continues to evaporate, though, because the move in the metals still leaves me upside down. however, I expect that to turn around, but then gamblers also are always on the verge of a change of luck, too.
Regardless of how the 'play money' is doing, I hold that the long-term outlook for paper is probably OK until after the Beijing Olympics. Oh sure, maybe an earthquake or some natural disasters / winds between now and then, but in the larger scheme of things I don't expect the world situation to quite li9terally 'blow up' until after the Chinese get their moment of Olympic Glory. Soon as that's over, though, hold on for the "Year of Manifestation" to kick a lot of folks in the head.
This weekend's report for Peoplenomics subscribers addresses a very important question that people who are locked into the "paperdigm" should be thinking about:
Suppose you had no pension? --- I'm just kidding about the word paperdigm though. I would not be surprised, based on calls for a steel penny earlier this month for someone to actually suggest 'paper dimes".
The Runs: Hillary's Gaff or Threat? The NY Post headlines this morning "Hill's 'Assassin' talk a shocker: Excuse for not quitting: RFK Got Shot in June".
Given that there are web pages with titles like "The Clinton Body Count" (you remember Ron Brown and Vince Foster, right?) the implications could be far-reaching. On the other hand, the Snopes urban legend site labels the 'Clinton body count' false.
Nevertheless, over the first cup of coffee it all smells as though the PTB has stuck their foot in it this time, afraid as they are of losing control of their lock on the WH and the District of Corruption.
For those watching the linguistics, I'd guess the story fills a lot of the politician who says something stupid along in her expectations. In the NYT today there's predictable regret.
In the Daily News, Michael Goodwin says "Hillary Clinton's colossal blunder simply the last straw." Sadly, it won't be.
Allergic to Bandwidth A New Mexico group says it's allergic to wi-fi hotspots and wants them banned from public buildings.
Don't Tell Gore This... ...but the Red Spot on Jupiter is changing and scientists think it's due to climate change. But wait! There's no carbon credit scam on Jupiter...no cars spewing out 'greenhouse gasses' so what gives? Say, you don't think we're all being played by the PTB, do you? Naw...tell me it ain't so...
'Them Winds' Still going nuts in the Midwest with strikes in square states.
WASF Department California state lawmakers are considering a 'porn tax' as a solution to the budget shortfall. Oh my, that's one of the Golden State's biggest exports, I mean aside from fruits and nuts...oh yeah, and vegetables.
Africa's Florida Seems the government of Zimbabwe is doing a little Florida-style voter disqualifying ahead of a president runoff in the land that's going through a Weimar-like inflation.
Around the Ranch: Work A ton of projects to do around the ranch this morning - so a short column. Even though Monday is a holiday, there will be a report - although shorter than a normal Monday as I'm taking advantage of the cool mornings to get real farmerly things done ahead of the 90+ heat which comes along around 10-11 AM now. Summer's here and the new air conditioning system has paid for itself many times over...
Friday May 23, 2008 Quakes, Exits, and 'Next' You may recall our Friday May 9 headline "Time Monks: A Quake Warning" and the Saturday May 10, 2008 headline "Wedding Quake?" both just in advance of the 8.0 quake which has left 80,000 dead or missing.
Both time monks of www.halfpasthuman.com and I are amazed at how the 'wedding interrupted' part of the archetypes associated with the quake have been almost like a time separated event as it was just in the past 24-hours that CNN put up "Quake left wedding party in layer of dust" and the BBC posted its coverage of the wedding interrupted at "In pictures: Wedding photos show quake".
the time monks and I have been looking at the wedding pictures since Monday when the 'wedding quake' pictures showed up on Leland Wong's journal and a few other places, just to see how the meme would spread and swirl into global media consciousness enroute to CNN and the BBC coverage. Quite graceful, as design patterns go. A resonance at the archetype level spreads in interesting ways. Quick from one place to another, a pause as it's energy congeals, and then off to bigger audiences and such.
Now, the meme is also showing up in places like the Kansas City Star's web site. MFG, can you believe it? It don't get much more mainstream than that.
With that, the "interrupted wedding" linguistics are filled, and the archetype expectation level completed; with these quake photos likely to be the enduring imagery of the event, just as the pictures of the people at the dome in New Orleans were the lasting image of the Kat/Rita events (ill wind and dark companion linguistically). --- Looking ahead, the same technology points to the possibility of something of a large quake in the western US just after the solstice (June 21st), with more precision expected in a few weeks at the linguistic analysis of the current ALTA 0209 (e.g. going for high resolution of events out to February 2009) gets into the later stages of processing and newer data.
Privately, I have to wonder about our discussions of the number 71, and 71,000 (here and here) earlier this week, plus a few other places. I scratch my head and ask "Hmmm...knowing the Universe plays with humans (or dances with us as unaware followers in the dance as in Dancing Wu Li Masters) might there be some significance to the time around 7/1; July first?
I suppose there's some comfort in the time monk's admonishment: "If George can think of it, that about rules out its happening." OK, Wedding Quakes excepted. Geographically it's very fuzzy beyond 'western U.S.) fuzzy, but between June 21 and mid-September seems like the timeline. --- Although there's still a month (or so) to go, even if the linguistics are right on the Western US quake (and the location vague yet), I'm pleased to report my commodity broker, JB Slear (www.forthwealth.com) and his wife will be moving to a higher elevation from their long-time home in Irvine, California as soon as the commodity markets close today. He's found a new home, appropriately, on Traders Trail in Prescott, Arizona.
Another reader, who left the LA basin in the past few weeks has settled with her prized show horses Columbia and Augusta South Carolina.
Not that these people wouldn't be doing this anyway but it's worth noting, I suppose. Both read the linguistic reports. --- Not that fleeing the next big quake saves anyone; Fate's going to get us all at the appointed hour and spare even the worst of us, if it pleases. I recall a bit of poetry that puts it into perspective:
Wait! Forget I mentioned that last bit: I'm not sure under the Patriot Act if I can quote Omar Khayyám - Arab fellow, wasn't he? -- without getting on some list. Once the modern marvel of a 'moving finger' writes people onto The List, no telling if they will ever get off it... I might need to go flying again, if the Western US quake to come gets too close to the family in Seattle...so forget the moving finger stuff and hopefully the linguistics are wrong.. --- I don't mean to obsess about quakes past and future, especially since the main point of this site is economic news and analysis. But 2008 is the year of 'manifestation' and 2009 is the year of 'transformation' and those things that will manifest for the balance of this year to the point of transforming us next, needless to say have huge influence on how things will work out financially.
In a 'prequel sequel to the prequel' I notice that Mexico has offered to send aid to China. It would not surprise me to see aid from Mexico and elsewhere coming north within the next year as natural disasters (and financial, too) loom here.
Other Memes: 'Them Winds' What's called a mile-wide tornado ripped through Weld County Colorado. The Weather Service charts continue running far ahead of 10-year averages. --- Say, I don't think I would want to own insurance stocks over the next year or two - just thinking out loud here...
The Runs: Hillary Going #2? (Sorry, our headline writers are drunk this morning, having started the long weekend early...)Time Magazine's latest gets to the idea of Hil as Veep. No more royal Clintons for me, thanks. --- Music to ears? Once prez wannabe Mike Huckabee was on the Bob Rivers morning show on KZOK up in Seattle this week. Gee, that brings back the good 'ol days of the rock & roll years when I was doing news with Gary Crow at KOL a bazillion years back. Crow's been at KZOK seems like forever...
"Papier Bitte?" Department: Housing Terrorists? OK, so terrorists haven't taking to hijacking housing. But, that's not going to stop the fear-mongers in corpgov from trying to sneak a National Fingerprint Registry into a Housing Bill apparently. I can almost hear it now: "Geben Sie mich, den Ihre Papiere gefallen, Bürger..." And if you protest: "We' Re, dies für Ihren eigenen Schutz tuend." --- Let me see, does this mean we won't be able to joke near a real estate office next? Sneaking this stuff in reminds us of the three-card Monte deals going on in CONgress in the GSE, not to mention revising away Constitutional liberties in general...
Hold on while I pinch myself. This is the weekend when we remember America's military who gave their ALL for this Great Country and at the same time preemptive search is being pimped around the District. Where am I? Do I get to wake up at some point? --- Speaking of housing, you have noticed that as the number of home foreclosures have gone up, so have the number of squatters who have moved into vacant homes.
This has led to police having to go to homeowner associations in places like Lawrence, MA to ask residents to keep an eye on vacant homes.
This leads to mental images like (knock, knock, knock) "Open up, it's the police. We need to see your mortgage documents..." It's either already, or going to, happen. I'm not sure how folks with paid for home (gulp!) would prove ownership other than going to the County records office...OMG custody till they open?
Say, About Those War Crimes The World Socialist Web Site has a must-read today: "FBI files indict Bush, Cheney and Co. as war criminals". --- Boy, what kind of website am I running here: Quoting both the John Birch Society site and the World Socialists in the same week. Oh well, news is where we find it, I reckon.
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Coping: The IJTA Report OK, with a three (or four) day weekend here, you just know the rest of this morning's column will launch into loonie zone. Our first stop, up ahead, is the IJTA update - the Indiana Jones Technical Analysis of markets:
But, seriously. Rob the IJTA Guy's point about 1977 gasoline being (at its high) around 32¢ a gallon sends me scrambling to the Federal Reserve inflation calculator. I put in 32-cents in 1977 and enter 2008 for my output year and tada! Gasoline SHOULD BE $1.14 a gallon now.
So, either we're running out of the stuff, or the government's inflation figures are all hosed up to under-report the real impacts of price increases over time, which we all know class (tap, tap on the white board here) is really the sneaky way of saying our money is being watered down by printing too much of it!
Around the Ranch: Deep Ponders Speaking of classrooms: My main consulting client (www.emachineshop.com and www.pad2pad.com ) has been invited to participate in a conference at a prestigious grad school in Cambridge, MA in July. The company President is too busy to go - expanding facilities and so on - so I have the option to go and present. But my time and my travel.
So, here I am at age 59 balancing off participation in a high end prestigious conference focusing on state of the art physical and information products for the home market against the flip side, which is having a peek into the future with the fuzzy time machine which suggests my resume may not matter much by the end of this year.
The ponder: help move the future along, or get ready for the one that seems to be in the wings? Then there's the matter of the linguistic solution set that suggests travel by then might be problematic.
Maybe I ought to work on putting in more goat fencing...
Peoplenomics.com All the Roads to Riches It occurred to me recently that I’ve never seen a really good survey book covering all the ways that a motivated human could get rich in this world. If such a book or short survey existed, everyone ought to be interested in studying it. After all, who doesn’t want to be rich? So this weekend, let's see if we can't logically group the various routes to riches. Sure, I expect the dollar to crash this coming week (or at least resume it's downward dive) but that shouldn't stop the aware person from at least keeping an eye out for opportunity. Within every crisis there's usually a new way to get ahead of the pack by thinking in unconventional ways about conventional problems.
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Better Living for Less Dough There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such. It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less. Still just $10. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!) ---- I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here to Put Me On Ham Gear List
Thursday May 22, 2008 Landry's Latest Say, here's an optimistic possibility: I've told you many times about my friend Robin Landry (email) who left the 'big city' and decided to set up shop in Shawnee, OK because for a long time, he's been like many of us who have a sense deep down in side that unsustainable economics at some point going into lock-up or breakdown mode, and he wanted to be close to real land and people when that happened. He's also a great trader and developed a system years back using a proprietary set of indicators that seems to have done him well -- his clients made money in the 1987 debacle, for example.
So, when Robin sends out a letter to clients, which he's given me permission to post, it's usually better than most of the so-called 'stock-pickers' and talking heads on TV. But, make your own judgments...see what he's saying now and then let's look in on his predictions in six months or a year and see how they've worked out:
The chart that Landry attached adds one important caveat: Namely that the Dow must not break below 10,984 or all bets are of on this 'big bounce to the finish' outlook which could carry the fifth of the fifth of the fifth (in Elliott terms) into 2009.
As usual, this is not trading advice. If you need some advice, take these dice and yell "Coming out!" We may also start selling stock selector darts in our bookstore...
A Gassed: $12-$15 $ 135 oil this morning in the futures? Yup. I don't know if you happened to be watching CNBC guest Robert Hirsch yesterday, but he's been called the Dean of Oil Analysts and he's warning of $12-$15-dollar a gallon gasoline. --- One of our most astute military/strategic thinking contributors offers this after looking at other oil reports:
--- A headline in the Times Online today advises: "They're wrong about oil, by George: Rip up your textbooks, the doubling of oil prices has little to do with China's appetite." The George they refer to is not me; it's George Soros. --- Even though gold has taken a momentary vacation from its recent assent, the black gold is still screaming upward with www.ino.com reporting that oil has climbed past the $135 mark in the futures on both a dimmer supply outlook as well as weakness in the US Dollar. --- A follow up note to yesterday's comments by petro-geologist Jeffrey Brown on how prices could accelerate:
--- I trust you saw that American Airlines is making a big capacity cut, and that they will soon start charging for the first bag checked? It's part of repricing high-energy input business models, soon going epidemic, by the sound of things. --- Then we have the continuing collapse of the housing market, which slid into crisis some time back - forcing more people to go 'off grid' but somehow I didn't think that was supposed to mean living in a car... --- I can almost hear you asking "George, how can we have Landry's indicators pointing to a new leg up in the market in October (when the predictive linguistics predict attacks on American financial interests), have the price of oil climbing like this, and still hold out any hope of a market becoming suddenly reinvigorated?"
Beats me - I'm playing in the commodity casino at the moment. It just sure seems like a difficult call to make, doesn't it?
Shortages/Rationing One reason I'm not holding out much hope of a fifth wave up, despite the prediction of my friend, is that the predictive value of the stock market is pretty low. A big "financial climate changer' like the 9/11 attacks, was not foreshadowed by anything obvious, except for that pile of short positions that entered the market, and then somehow escaped a detailed public explanation of who had placed those trades and how much money they made.
Let's talk about fundamentals for a moment: You may recall that in March 2006 I began charting (periodically) the occurrence of the word "shortage" in Google's news search engine. As crude as word frequency analysis is, and further, due to its variance thanks to caching and indexing strategies of Google which evolve over time, we have nevertheless seen an increase in the frequency of the word: From under 11,000 at times in 2006 to 44,414 when I looked this morning.
In the predictive linguistics reports from www.halfpasthuman.com, we should be in a period now which would meet the descriptor set "shortages" and "encounters with scarcity".
I'm just supposing that a four times increase in word us may mean something, but who knows. --- On the other hand, since we're in the period and the meme seems to be popping up here and there, we could go on to a list of related words to see how they fare over the coming months as the meme builds.
One of these is 'rationing' with 3,929 Google (news) hits today. Among the headlines that fit the shortage/encounters with scarcity meme are concepts like "BPCL starts rationing fuel supplies (in India). The "Greens" in Australia are calling for fuel rationing and setting up reserves in New South Wales.
And, it's not all energy related, at least directly. "East Bay's water district declare water emergency, imposes water rationing" reminds us that much of America's urban infrastructure is well past its prime and needing rebuilding or replacement. California, long familiar with water problems, is back to worries about that on the op-ed pages, too, such as the guest commentary "Water is a previous resource" as noted by the Petaluma Argus-Courier. --- Then there's the matter of wheat rust, which was reported in Iran in March (bio warfare, we wonder?) and which has now put Pakistan on alert for potential crop loss.
Amidst all this, a few farmers, like T.R. Raymond in McMinnville, Tennessee, are reportedly returning to traditional power for agriculture; hitching up mules. Is history cyclical, or what?
The "Big One" Sometime between the summer solstice and the fall equinox, the linguistics point to a "big' quake in the US, perhaps western as in California or Nevada, so reports out of California about possible impacts of a major Golden State earthquake make a timely read.
But, worthless too, if you manage to live in that part of the world and ignore the obvious message to stock up on things you might want to have on hand: food water, supplies of medications, that sort of thing. yet, I expect lots of people will just blow this off until it's too late. De Nile is a wide river and it covers a swatch from about Klamath falls to San Ysidro.
American Royalty I've railed enough about how the Bush's and Clinton's have managed to keep a hand in the White House, pursuing the PTB agenda for nearly 30 -years.
As if we need more evidence of the "new American Monarchy", please telling me he's just joking when Bill Clinton starts promoting daughter Chelsea for president. Please... --- I wonder how many people would be interested in a Constitutional Amendment that would prohibit sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, or spouses, and first cousins, of any Senator, Congressman, Vice President or President, from running for national office for a period of 10-years?
We live in a nation of 300-million people and I just know that there are equally (or better) qualified people who could make meaningful contributions to the country's future than what in many cases are a handful of monarchs installed by the socio-political powers that be.
Global Warming? "Mud, snow to great Memorial Day hikes" in Vermont. The Daily Olympia (locally called the 'daily zero') headlines from Washington state that "Many ski areas finish with record-breaking seasons"
Politics is Dirty Business Department San Francisco is considering a first-ever "pollution fee" reports Channel 10. --- What's curious to med how this kind of legislation, not to mention the carbon credit programs that I am openly skeptical of, are simple variations of 'defending the paradigm' rather than fostering fundamental change.
A genuine change would involve something like legislating that the maximum number of cylinders in a car's engine may not be more than four times the number of occupants. One person could still drive, but only a four-banger. Two people could get into a V-8 powered car, and so forth. No motorcycle larger than 650 cc...that kind of thing. Legislate small.
This notion of taxing pollution is like a medic unit showing up at an accident seen and charging for blood spilled on a public street before administering aid - how absurd!
Or, as in Europe, impose weight taxes. But, of course, that would dismantle the federales big monster departments that impose bumper and crash test requirements that, in turn, cost a lot of weight.
The result of this trying to use the same processes (and politicos) to get us out of the very problems they have created is why I can't build and drive my ultra high-mileage go-kart into town. Licensure, taxing, and things like carbon credits and patenting life forms all defend the old paradigm of living in conflict with the earth. Dirty business, indeed.
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Coping: Time Out for Fun As anti-violence as I am, it's just a game - so I keep repeating as I try to figure out if I should buy GTA-4. Emails like this one keep pushing me to spend the money on a flat-panel TV and a gaming system...
But, see, this is where I run into that horrible personal inner conflict stuff. Part of me recognizes that video games are all part of the bread and circuses of mass subjugation while the PTB run around planet plundering. This kind of email appeals to the 'cake eater' in my. Besides, what's wrong with circuses? Damn, can't these decisions be easier?
Maybe I will pop the 89¢ and buy the theme song "Soviet Connection" by Michael Hunter... Amazon moves to micropayments?
2012 Humor? Hmmm...
Come bail me out when I'm jailed for not affording health care insurance, would yah?
"Those Idiots" File Yes, I forgot to make a big whoop about the bill allowing OPEC to be used...
Tick Tock... A reader asks...
You're absolutely right - I've noted it, and I should move on. Besides, the predictive linguistics were way off on the "Wedding Quake" prediction. Seriously.
You go back to the Saturday May 10 report (click here), realize that our timing was off by 29-hours or so on the China quake, and then go see the "Quake Interrupts Wedding" pictures that have gone global mainstream and yes, we apologize for the margin of error. I just can't think of any other sites that were talking about weddings and quakes with such precision prior to the event, but if youi know of one, please send it along.
I will try not to mention the specifics of the coming unraveling this fall with such precision, and in keeping with this new circumspect attitude, I'll layoff the predictive linguistic specifics and turning my back on the virtual time machine, I'll try not to mention the radical uprising in Pakistan in mid August again (13-17th), either. There. Feel any better being 'blindsided' by the future?
The regional power problems to come...no, I suppose you don't want to know about those, either.
Another Country Heard From A British reader doesn't like our gas/diesel price coverage:
I'm not 'rubbing your noses in it." Look: with an area of 50,352 square miles, you can't use that much diesel in the UK. Your country is so small, roughly two Britains would fit inside the state of Oregon. For that matter, Texas is large enough to hold more than five Britains. Bigger country, bigger thirst and all.
Besides, maybe this is just the Universe punishing the UK for the Boer War and the colonial days, huh?
But not to worry mate, we're still friends, divided (or is that organised?) by a common language though we are. Why, when the next World War breaks out, I'm sure we'll save The Empire for a third time... Ya'll just keep knighting our ex-presidents and Fed Chairman and I'm sure it will all work out.
Say, you wouldn't have any royals who want to be honorary mayors of some small towns here in East Texas, would you? (I've been thinking if we could incorporate Elmwood, maybe I could run for mayor here and score a knighthood...) ---
Send comments to george@ure.net
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Wednesday May 21, 2008 $130 Oil! Meantime, Here on the Hindenburg Although it is likely not until late September or early October (Oct. 7, 7:10 UTC just to single out the moment) that the real crash of the economy will become apparent, there are plenty of signs about now that the design of the Not really Federal and not really much in Reserves US Banking system and the design of the Zeppelin LZ-129 seem to share common design elements.
Assuming that you remember what happened to the Hindenburg on May 6, 1937 at Lakehurst Naval Air Station in New Jersey, this email from an aware reader should make perfect sense:
Well, er, I think under the Patriot Act, I can't say anything negative about the US economic system, tempting as that might be since its hijacking by corporate interests, but the Act doesn't say anything about being mum on the banksters who have watered down the purchasing power of the US dollar in the name of political expediency, free lunches, and lobbyists with reckless abandon, all the while driving the financial system onto the rocks, as I've been writing about here since 1997.
No, wait a minute. It's not as bad as you think. It 's probably much WORSE than this chart shows. Why? Because this data series doesn't even start until 1958 or so. If the series went back to the last Great Depression, we would maybe see some pattern replay. The St. Louis Fed chart doesn't go back to the Roaring Twenties. --- The Fed now finds itself between a rock and a hard place: On the one hand we need to have lots of liquidity in the financial system, and so instead of demanding high quality assets to back up borrowing at the Fed's discount window, it's 'bring whatever you have' that would otherwise send honest accountants scurrying fleeing for fear of prison terms.
If the Fed didn't have this policy, we'd already be in a Depression.
Worse? The amount of malinvestment that has been run up since the last Great Depression (which in turn needs to be wrung out of the economy before honest growth can resume) absolutely dwarf's anything in history. When this thing all goes kablooey, it will make the South Seas Bubble look like a cakewalk and the Depression like a bad weekend.
Still, what's a Fed to do? If there's no liquidity, there's no "money" (such as it is) to buy oil and the consumer goods from China, since damn near all production has been outsourced along with incomprehensible foreign "customer service" agents. WASF. Got your survival garden in? --- America is the greatest country in the world. But, it has been hijacked by corporate interests who have only one thing in mind - fattening their bottom lines based on cost-reductions and "value-engineering". Starting with the banks, they have proclaimed themselves "too big to fail" and under this mantra, the money-printers will be working day and night through a summer of brownouts and rolling blackouts, soaring food prices, whopping foreclosure increases, civil disobedience, and all the rest that comes in a 'crack-up boom' before the real story unfolds and we get to size up what a real economic abyss looks like this fall.
This is not to be apocalyptic. This is a simple trend summation.
Blowing Town Another Precursor? The BBC has spied: "Top bankers "leaving US for Asia". Something about handwriting and walls, huh?
$800 Oil? The price of oil futures, passing through the $130 level as they have this morning, likely headed far north of $200, is really secondary to the Bigger Picture of how the economy and oil are tied together. But is $800 oil in the cards? Oh yeah....
A conversation with Dallas area petroleum geologist Jeffrey J. Brown and a follow-up email explains the concept of oil going nonlinear from here:
You won't see that $800 (and higher) figure in cowardly MSM yet, but that's where we go. If $140 oil means $5 gas, then $25 a gallon comes into focus, or at $6 a gallon at $140, then $800 oil implies $30 at the pump...or even more. You can do the math. You might even want to hazard a guess at what point rebellion, economic collapse and all the rest comes along, too. --- Earlier this week, Brown and Dr. Samuel Foucher posted "A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters" at the Energy Bulletin and although too long to post in its entirety, deserves a careful read. You might want to mull on their conclusions:
What this implies, to the trader in me, is that as net energy exports decline, and the Brown/Foucher paper lays the groundwork for an arguable case that the decline will accelerate in nonlinear fashion, then prices will likely rise in 'doubly nonlinear fashion'. First, at least as a reciprocal of the nonlinearity in the export drop, and then further by some also nonlinear [price fears] function whose size may be a dependent variable on the rapidity with which the doublings of price (and presumably currency devaluations which will appear as "inflation") are perceived by investors.
(OMG how much coffee did I have this morning?)
War Over Iran's Oil Department Iran Blockage Talk There was one other thing that Brown shared with me in our conversation Tuesday - posed as a question: Could the US versus Iran situation become a global flashpoint, in the same sense that Germany's invasion of Poland (Kampania wrześniowa) was in 1939?
The groundwork has been laid over many months by the neocons, who have made their intentions clear. While citing various "spreading of democracy" concepts, the real issue in play is that the West will simply run out of money to buy oil at some point, and with this will come a massive Depression, the likes of which the world has never seen. So, it's a 'pick your poison' kind of choice.
What's new today is that Israeli prime minister Olmert is saying to US House Nancy Pelosi, that what the US should do is impose a naval blockage on Iran.
Clearly, Pelosi and other democorps (elected to office under the pretext of ending the Iraq War) are trying to find answers to the pending 'pick your poison' problem.
Our friends the time monks at www.halfpasthuman.com are also seeing this 'fork in the road' coming whether we like it or not. The choices, distilled from all sources seem to be:
Not a pretty set of choices, to be sure. It could be argued from a policy standpoint that there is no alternative to stealing some of Iran's oil. So, what seems to me likely, (and Brown by the way doesn't rule this out either) is for some kind of scaled military action that would allow the West project enough power to gently take over some of the Iranian oilfields that are close to the Iraqi border on some pretext, or another. Thus, a "war lite' kind of scenario which might be offered as a best chance to muddle through the coming Straits of Disaster.
But, what lurks off in the background is the huge Russian investment in Iran and its oil and nuclear infrastructure, while as Brown notes, Russia's year-on-year exports of oil are down 3%. So, OK, Russia's got some skin in this game.
So does China. With not only a huge population to feed and move up the stand of living charts, China now also has a huge demand for all kinds of resources to rebuild from the earthquake which devastated it 10-days ago.
To Market, To Market The futures are pointing to a small downward continuation of yesterday's 200-point nosebleed. This afternoon, the Fed Minutes are due out and that's always new grist for the talking heads and money honeys who seem to run in fear of truth revealing long-term data.
With more facts on the table about the limited choices before the West, you know why I've been out of most paper assets for months, right?
The Runs Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt Department The ultimate in schizophrenia lessons today from What's Her Name: How to be a winner (in Tennessee) while being a loser at bank to the tune of a reported $31 million; an unsurprising roll-up of personality dimensions. --- Is this where I remind you that how politicos behave with their campaign money is likely an indication of the respect with which they would treat this Great Nation's budget? Lemme see, McCain has busted his budget, Hil her's.....
Sneaking in Amnesty "Senate Committee Approves Illegal Alien Amnesty Amendment to Iraq War Funding Bill!" reports the John Birch Society web site. --- If you're old enough, you may remember the Chad Mitchell Trio's song about the John Birch Society. Laugh while you can, comrade... That CMT song came out in about 1961 and from 1961 to today, the dollar has lost 86% of its purchasing power using the Fed's own calculator.
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Wisdom Ages Innumerable times people have told me "I'm not getting older, I'm getting better!" which usually sends me snickering on a run for somewhere private where I can laugh at the absurdity of their denial.
Nevertheless, the New York Times reports today that an Older Brain Really May be a Wiser Brain."
OK, update the claim and I will stop laughing: "I'm not getting older, I'm getting wiser..." Promise I won't laugh.
Homemade IR Nightvision Oh, this looks like fun. Video.
Wannabe a Blacksmith? Here's something interesting out of the UK: The Countryside Agency Archive. Check out the .PDF's.
71? Remember that discussion earlier this week?
Yes, of course. In fact, several readers brought this to my attention. However the reader wrote it out correctly, even if his typing of numbers at this ungodly hour of the morning is in the same league with mine.
Oh, and consider this one:
Now before you pass off this numerology stuff, check this out:
--- end snip and save section --- Tuesday May 20, 2008 Paper Asset Crisis: Producer Prices and Middle East Buzz An article on the Arab News website caught my eye this morning with the headline "US-Led Capitalist System Headed for Collapse?" Although it's not in the mainstream yet, probably because it's buried in the EIA n umbers (which, BTW show that Peak Oil occurred in 2005!) there are stories starting to pop under headlines like "Have We Really Hit Peak Oil?"
I don't mean to slap you 'upside the head' with this almost every day, but most of us are still in a position where we can do something about our futures. That's a window which may be closing in the near future. In fact, so much so that I'm already working on this coming weekend's article for Peoplenomics subscribers: "Pensioner's Plan B" which will explore the issues facing pension funds, many of which have gobs, mounds, and oodles of junk paper assets that have not been repriced to market value.
The reason I am trying to frame your thinking about paper assets is simply this: Paper is an abstraction media. In other words, once you have paper and ink, you can put almost anything you want on the paper, but it depends on social contract, customs and language in order for that those designs on paper mean. Remember that concept: Paper is an abstraction.
On the other hand, oil is distinctly not. If you have enough barrels of oil you can make lots of things and you can do lots of real work. For instance, besides the obvious conversion into diesel or gasoline that's obvious, oil is also turned into asphalt for roads, plastics for darned near everything, and on the doing side, oil-fired boilers keep homes warm, ships running, power plants humming and all the rest. Think of oil as a tangible asset.
About the only difference is a two-dollar bill and a twenty is the placement of the ink, and our agreement by social convention and language about what that should be exchanged for. Oil, even the water-cut, 'sour' stuff as the Middle East goes into decline still have a value that is more independent of the social constructs.
Thus, when I look at an asset, I try to see past the socially-engineered scams that would have us believe that paper with lots of zeroes on it has "value". Going to the Wikipedia entry on "Utility" we read that:
When you think about it, once paper has been soaked with ink, unless you have a damn fine eraser, it's "value" is set. But, add the hand of government and banksters and now the value changes. Not directly, in most cases, but because the amount of similar paper in general use (circulation) will determine the value of the inked paper.
We have, within 10-years of one another, two most interesting cases of paper's ability to change value based on the number of 'competing' pieces of paper in use. In one instance, the US Great Depression, the amount of paper was declining, such that as the amount of paper 'competing' declined, the value as measured by purchasing power of tangibles, was increasing. Key point: If the amount of paper sloshing about is declining, you've got deflation, and the value which can be attained by a dollar goes UP.
Our first historical example hit its zenith in the 1930's Great Depression, yet only ten years early, the world had witnessed precisely the other side of the coin with the Hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic.
It was here that the amount of paper in circulation was dramatically increased. Not only was the physical number of pieces of paper going through the roof, but those crafty Germans had figured out the mystery of zeroes and they tossed them around quiet freely, such that grocers were not able to post prices for the goods in their stores - prices were going up that fast. This second economic fact of life distills to: Once printed, if more dollars are printed, then the existing dollars go down in their purchasing power.
Of course, from here, economics gets more complicated. We could have a long discussion about how many dollars/marks, or in the current Zimbabwe inflation, which is giving the Weimar a run for it's money (pun intended) with an annual inflation rate of 355,000 percent. --- Americans tend to be quite self-centric when it comes to money. I would have used the term Amero-centric, but that gets us into the Bush administration's planned hijacking of America's independence by selling us into bondage with Mexico and Canada at the behest of globalist interests who are promoting the goals of www.spp.gov. A different tale entirely.
Nope: Today, we should stick to little items of economic 'buzz' and understand that the US position of The Sole Superpower is an old paradigm. China and Russia are coming back to the fore - and harder to demonize in the case of Russia, because they've cast off their 'chains of oppression' - a bad thing perhaps because they're turning out to be better capitalists than us in some ways.
We note that German investor confidence falling, is also likely not a good sign. --- I wrote in 2001 that Elaine and I were going to buy a little gold. It was around $275 an ounce. Even though people are whining about the recent pullback from north of $1,000, that still means a 329% return/229% gain in less than seven years. Not too many funds have done that well.
By the same token, I told you in July 2005 I was buying a little silver when it was under $7. Again, the recent whining from the silver investors leaves me cold. The return is 243% in 2.9 years, or a gain of 143%, however you want to discuss it. Again, few funds can match that record. --- But it's not just traditional stores of value that have gained. We are starting to see the costs of machine tools firm up. I might have mentioned that I bought a new generator head for our ranch back-up system for $199 from Harbor Freight about a year and a half back. I just got a catalog tempting me to buy another at the special sale price of $279. Almost everything else we buy, but especially food and fuel, have gone up dramatically. Faster than the amount of paper coming in to our household, for sure, and likely yours too.
While the government does a fine job of plastering all kinds of statistics about the economy about, what they don't give us much information on is whether buying things or collecting paper is a good idea.
We have to infer that, but the evidence can be found to support both views. For example, there's a widely deflationary implication with the Treasury Department limiting Savings Bonds to just $3,000 per year per social security number. It used to be $30,000 a year. Is it that they don't want regular folks to get hurt when the dollar is changed out for the Amero (or whatever our next currency is), or is that that they don't want people swinging their pensions into something backed by the more or less full faith and credit of the government when times get tight? Your guess is as good as mine.
However the government figures also make just the opposite case when you look at figur3es like this morning's Producer Price Index Report:
We note that the unadjusted change in finished goods was up 6.5% from a year ago. But wait!
If the 'offishul' inflation rate is under 4% and finished goods are going up 6.5%, where's the missing 2 1/2%, huh? Yeah, I know...don't ask, don't tell...
Which likely means Wall Street will rally on such hyperbole...
If you're looking for some simple guidance or a sure-fire investment decision, sorry, we're fresh out of those. I read the same reports you do about the economy. The impacts of the housing slump are still being felt (and growing). This has caused well-managed firms like Home Depot to report a 66% decline in Q1 earnings. The 2008 tax 'rebate' likely won't be enough to keep the country out of something far worse this fall.
My personal expectation remains that we will have a serious inflation pop before we get into deflation later one. Aiding and abetting my case is John Crudele's excellent piece in the NY Post under the headline "July Fireworks: Inflation Rate will Reflect Gas Costs".
After reading Crudele's article, reading that Middle East Buzz, checking Producer Prices and the like, nothing would surprise me less than an inflation rate running at over a 20% rate some month between now and say January.
Not only will it be a bonanza for the banks with bloated REO departments thanks to foreclosures, but it should also translate to skyrocketing precious metals prices much sooner than later. I'm not the sharpest econ guy out there, and at some point, the fund manager herd may awaken.
And those Harbor Freight generator heads? They seem to be a pretty good indicator of the real inflation that's been going on so far. I'm betting they'll rise to $399 within a year.
Those "Bomb Here" Signs Let's see if we can sort this out: Iran doesn't go along with international calls for it to discontinue nuclear development which the West figures is questionable and maybe a cover program for getting into the nuclear weapons game. And then Iran leads the Middle East in renouncing the US dollar - and sets up it's own oil bourse.
I've said before that this is tantamount to holding up large signs that read "Bomb here".
The Jerusalem Post this morning headline that Iran's prepping its people to be ready because "Bush intends to attack Iran before the end of his term".
But wait! Isn't this just more of what the SF Chronicle op-ed pages call "Hyping the threat from Iran"? Could be: Tehran is trying to communicate its position on security guarantees as best it can in advance of what seems like an almost inevitable last push by the neocons to rule the world. Or, at least those parts that are sitting on more than 10% of the post Peak oil world's supply.
The War Industries Even Bigger 'Big Brother' Britain is planning a huge big-brother database to track every single email and phone call - not to mention time spent on the internet as part of what I'm coming to think of as the Fright Against Terrorism.
The Runs: Still Going Why John McCain is still taken seriously as a candidate while Ron Paul is not, is just beyond me. nevertheless, headlines like "McCain attacks Obama over Iran." John's the neocon war-promotion dream candidate. --- Then there's Mrs. Denial who isn't getting it - she's out, which you know has to be worrying the hell out of the PTB.
Meantime, Back At The Fuzzy Time Machine A subscriber to the ALTA reports from www.halfpasthuman.com called yesterday to ask me if I remembered a part in the October 7, 2007 ALTA 0508 series which seems to have gotten aspects of the current hoof and mouth disease outbreak in Southern China right:
Curious and recalling a bunch of 'foul breath' references in there (and not having that good a memory) I went back to the news archives and sure enough, lots of talk about hoof and mouth and how this "Deadly Animal Virus May Soon Come to US Mainland"
But now comes the eerie part. Remember we were talking yesterday about the number 71? Enterovirus 71 hits Beijing. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease. Foul breath, indeed. --- Speaking of fuzzy time machines, remember we are supposed to see a strong, uniting female appear? Well, here's an interesting take on this:
Uhh....sure....no problem. And yes, I have sent this to the time monks, who will see how well this persona/site/movement matches with the linguistic descriptors. I will let you know what they report back.
Marketing Religion God goes genderless in a new prayer book. --- [Georgia] State GOP Chair: McCain 'kind of like Jesus'. --- "Bush apologizes over Koran shooting in Iraq: TV."
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Coping: About 71,000 If you read yesterday's column, you probably remember we chatted about the appearance of 71,000 in what seemed like an unusual number of big headlines. This morning in the email there's this...
Some interesting thoughts, to be sure. But there are so many numbers and to single just one of them out is, well, like the quest for pi. Or, as the time monks are constantly advising, we should all be stocking up on pie fixings...
European Gas Prices This is not to 'flame' our reader who reported in from the Netherlands on gas prices there - just more to ponder:
I've got to be really careful what I write about Europe. One new Peoplenomics subscriber from that region wrote: "thanks to the weak dollar I can afford to subscribe again. " Great. WASF.
Quakes, Frogs, and Infrasonics Here's a good one - a link to an article about swarming frogs in China before the quakes and how they are now reported swarming in California. Then we have other quake ideas coming in, too:
Makes for interesting speculation, for sure. But, I'd be inclined following Ochham to look for the simple answer: a big low pressure area from the cyclone moving into the region causing differentials impacts on a land mass that was ready to pop anyway... Correction I reported yesterday that quintal was a hundredweight. Nope. Readers in India have reminded me that it's 100 kilos...not pounds. Forgive me please, the closest I get to Bombay is Gin.
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Send comments and notes to george@ure.net
Monday May 19, 2008 Although there's a good article this week in our subscriber publication Peoplenomics.com about all the different ways a person can get rich, probably the most important part of this week's report is the ChartPack where in the Global Index Chart is shown. More specifically, in the chart you can see an important recent reversal.
The reversal, as expected, seems to be gaining steam this morning with gold and silver on a tear with the next stops likely over $1,000 and over $20 respectively, and perhaps in very short order; maybe just weeks.
As usual, this is not investment advice. I don't care what youi do with your money, but I do care about mine, and so I'm well positioned to make a small profit should the markets move the way I expect.
If you're thinking to yourself "Hmmm...does this mean another big jump in commodity prices is setting up?" I'd simply grin and start throwing headlines at you. --- Trying to make sense out of the world via the MainStreamMedia is always risky business because headlines are often on a blurry continuum between confounding and outright contradictory. Take oil. One headline asserts that "Oil rises near $127 despite dollar gains" while another counters that "Oil prices drop below $126 a barrel." Either way, to put it crudely, oil ain't cheap. --- The grain complex will no doubt fall under the influence of rice later today, as the wholesale price of basmati rice in India rose 200 Rs a quintal. If you're scratching your head trying to figure out what a quintal is, you're not alone; I had to look it up, too. Seems, if I read the explanation right that a quintal is the same as a centner which is, in turn, a hundredweight.
If, on the other hand, you don't know that Rs is short for Rupees (India's currency), you need to be more economically aware. And, if you don't know what Basmati is, you're probably anorexic. Go eat something. --- All of these commodity prices would be manageable if they were just financial abstractions. But there's bad news and really horrible news when it comes to the impact of higher grain prices.
The bad news is that food prices have gone up, no matter where you shop, although "offishully" not nearly as much as we've been paying.
The horrible news is that adding insult to injury, the price of beer is starting to go up. Yup, WCBD reports that the price of hops is one of the reasons, up 400%. And you were worried about barley and wheat prices! --- Let's think about this for a minute: Grains going up means that now might be a propitious time to buy cases of your favorite booze. Not only is it likely to be good 'trading stock' after the economy goes into collapse mode later in the year, it has other uses too, such as being a dandy disinfectant and so on.
Just as I advised you back in February of 2007 that I was laying in a supply of "investment grade diesel" when it was about $2.67 for off-road fuel, so today I'm suggesting you at least consider laying in cases of 1.75 liter glass bottles of anything distilled. When Elaine goes shopping this week, I will put half a dozen cases each of rum, gin, vodka, and what Pappy used to call "COW's" on the list. COW of course meaning 'case of whiskey'.
And as in any perfect hedging situation, if the price of things doesn't go through the roof, we will at least be ready to throw one hell of a party. See how much fun it is being the People's Economist? Practical advice - none of this hypothecating. Shoot, I already know the "greater fool' that more studied economists use in their examples is usually the person in the mirror. --- I've been sitting at in front of my computer writing now for about a half hour. In that short time, gold has gone from being up $4.75 to being up more than $10. At this rate, I will be able to stop writing and just retire in three days. Some minor reversals along the way are acceptable... --- If the prospect of at least getting some sensible economic advice cheers you up, don't get carried away. In fact, wipe that smile off your face:. A German scientist says forced smiling can hurt your health.
And, speaking of laughable, we move on to...
The Runs:Truth Hurts Barack Obama has been campaigning in Oregon and telling the environmentally conscious there that "We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK,"
What's her name's campaign, meantime, seems to be running out of steam, although who knows what tricks the PowersThatBe will pull in order to ensure that one of their own remains in the White House? Will her radical past be remembered more publicly now?
Depression Watch After telling you for months to be wary of the morning of October 7th (around 7:10 UTC), it seems that others are starting to synch up on expectations of economic collapse this fall. Worthy of a studied read is Clif Droke's GSR snippet "Economic Collapse in September". One more reason to invest in COW's, huh?
71,000 dead and that's so far.
Wry Universe Department At the same time the quake toll is going through 71,000, so is the Brazilian stock index. Universe must want to see how many of us are really paying attention. Let me guess, 71,000 of us?
Wry to the Sky: 71,000 Again and Again???? But wait, 71,000 also is cropping up as the number of dead out of Burma/Myanmar, too! --- "Drug Boss ordered to hand over £71,000." --- A couple of quick searches reveal statistically it's not a big aberration, but the quake and the cyclone numbers running neck and neck is curious.
Pump Problem "Old gas pumps can't handle ever-rising prices" reports USA today. The dyslexic Universe has arranged the problem to impact 17,000 pumps among the nation's 170,000 gas stations...
Guns For Oil Department Russia's Pravda is reporting that "Russia forces USA out from its traditional arms markets" including a $4-billion deal with Saudi Arabia. So much for the Bush trip, eh?
Phone Phobic "Warning: Using a mobile phone while pregnant can seriously damage your baby." The risk seems to relate to hyperactivity and conduct, and how they can draw such conclusions is beyond me; hyperactivity and misconduct being rampant anyway thanks to a lack of strong parenting and anxious drug peddlers...
A New Yahoo Deal? The New York Times technology section is reporting today that Microsoft may come back to Yahoo with a new deal.
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Coping: Problems for LifeLock A report in the Charleston Gazette headlines "ID Theft protection firm sued: LifeLock misinformed customers, lawsuit says"
Homemade Soap A reader offers this:
European Critic And we have a few...
Seasons Disappearing Another writes
Farm Bill And we got some feedback on our coverage of the Farm Bill last week from 'down under':
My pleasure - I'm usually not doing much else at 5 AM every day...LOL
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Send items and comments to george@ure.net
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Around the Ranch: Planned Spontaneity Two things on my to-do list: A local golf course has a $49 special - golf, cart, lunch so we will have to try it. Also, the new Indiana Jones movie sounds like a winner. Standing ovation at the Cannes festival, too. --- And a reader sent in this farmerly story, which may propel your Monday to a better start:
News from Elliott
Wave International
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the powers That Be, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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