Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

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Wedding Quake?

Around 7-9 PM tonight, West Coast time, would seem like a dandy time to 'hang on' just in case the predictive linguistics works out in a particular way.  In case you missed our Friday report on how there's an interrupted wedding, from which official dash to go focus on earthquake recovery operations, click here and you'll see why our attention is on Crawford Texas where Jenna Bush is to be married tonight.

 

Of course, the linguistics may be off (this is not an exactly science, as we've disclaimed many times), and to be sure, there are other weddings ahead which might have lots of television/press mainstream coverage.  Next week, for example, there's the Ashlee Simpson marriage in California with Jessica Simpson doing maid of honor duty.

 

So who knows which of the weddings the language sliced and diced in a particular way in modelspace is actually pointing toward?  Ask me in late December.

 

Saturday Numbers

With a lot of big names dropping assets to raise cash, I have to wonder if the current rally, which came to an end this week, will have the vitality to make it through early summer (e.g. till just after June 21st).  Not that modelspace is pointing to that - it's how I read the markets and what I know about the model.  But there's nothing to say that we can't begin the drop from here, but one more good bounce seems likely before the fall of the Fall.

 

Among those trying to drum up a little cash is Citigroup, which is shedding half a trillion in assets.  Did I say "a little" cash?   "Scuse me, but this is verging on real money, even for a high roller like me, LOL...

 

Then we saw AIG come in with a 'nasty surprise' for the markets; a double whammy.  Not only did it depress the Dow but it removes, I think, some of the golden patina of Warren and Charlie - both geniuses, but even geniuses and system players are going to lose sometimes in a crooked casino.

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FedEx is dropping it's Q4 outlook on fuel  costs.  Most of the 'happy talk' around the markets about a fall recovery seems to hinge on cheap fuel, and the realist in me wonders, "Gee, if oil is at $126 and change, why would anyone with half a wit bank on dropping energy prices?"

 

But the out is obvious:  The key words being 'half a wit' in close proximity to Wall Street.  Have some more coffee and it will make sense if it doesn't yet.

 

Saturday Reflections

There's a great lesson in living in here -- and here it is.  Hand me a calculator.

 

Last weekend, the Dow had closed out Friday at 13,058.20.

 

This weekend, if closed out at 12,745.88.  That's down 312.32 points.

 

If you wake up on Saturday morning and you're not as excited as hell about the weekend ahead, you might to some mind-adjusting.

 

I have tried to teach my kinds (and anyone else who will listen) that evenings and weekends are people's golden time.  That's when we get to work on our own dreams, plans, and agenda items.

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George Secret # 723:  If you ever have problems getting up and getting projects done for yourself just ask yourself this:  "Why would I get up and go work for someone else during the weekend work harder than I would work for myself in my own spare time?  I mean, who would be crazy enough to do that, right?

 

Work hard for others, but work even harder for yourself because you get 100% of that return, undiluted.  Pretty simple, eh?

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George Secret # 724:  If you're going to watch a movie, make it one that will reinforce your best values (honesty, hard work, ethics, etc.).

 

It makes choosing between "Astronaut Farmer" or "Texas Chainsaw whatever" really easy when you're channel surfing.

 

People are programmable, just like a laptop (so to speak).  Programming is going in all the time, so you might as well try to consciously pick the good stuff.  Darned few do so.  You could watch worse TV for a month than comedies, right values movies, and educations/documentaries. That misnamed  Reality TV?  Hand me a barf bag.  Life's too short.

 

Acerbic George Department "What Deflation?"

I forgot to hand out the gold stars this week for consumers in America who are managing to keep the world's economic game of musical chairs going by sinking beyond their eyeballs in debt.  Saving me a bottle of wine on a long-ago bet.

 

The G.19 Consumer Debt Report out from the Fed (which they call Consumer Credit to make sounding in debt like it's good thing) shows that debt is going up at a rate over 7% per year. 

 

I haven't mentioned this to my deflationist pal Jas Jain because I don't want to ruin his weekend, but  I have written down a note to myself to ask Jas "Where's that deflation?" when the Consumer Price Index figures come out next week.  A "surprising" increase (to economic idiots) is my bet, and that ought to relaunch metals like gold and silver.  We can't have gold and silver dropping and oil rising to this extent without a great chance at a straddle play.... 

 

Meantime, here's economics unbundled for you: Debt's going up and that means INFLATION.  As Jas is so fond of saying "It's the Debt, stupid!"  That part he's got right, even if I may get my crack-up boom before the incipient deflation to come this winter....

 

The Runs: Super Whatagates?

Just one more charade that when you look closely, and I suppose another example of how America has been hijacked.  The concept of 'super delegates'.  What ever happened to one man, one vote?  Don't get me started.

 

Anyway, the NYT reports today that "For First time, More Superdelegates Favor Obama."  I won't be so rude as to make an issue of this with the democorps - they're hopelessly bought and paid for by corpgov interests anyway.  Pelosi and he First 100-days stuff? So7und bites for the somnambulistic.   ROFLOL.  Money talks, Jack.  Hell, inside the Beltway is screams, hisses, howls, rants, and runs everything...  You do understand that, right?

 

This is a bid/ask Republic any more.

 

Marching Militarism's May Madness

Russia did another parade on Friday (May Day wasn't enough?) to show off their missile and military might.  Gesticulations to the West over their sphere of influence, is how I'd read this. 

 

The "World Socialist Web Site" seems a good source for matters in that part of the world, and their headline "Russia and Georgia on the brink of armed conflict over Abkhazia" seems to cover it.

 

Microsoft's Fine

Bill & Steve's little start-up is trying to get the EU to show a little mercy on the $1.4 billion dollar fine over access to the guts of their OS.  I wouldn't bet on it - maybe a 'show' reduction of a hundred million or so...but why would Europe show any mercy, merci? Like any other deal, the question is "What's in it for them?"  Sell that and maybe they could get some mercy.

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Meantime, Microsoft is planning to release Vista SP-1 in June via automatic updates.  Cool!  I won't have to order a CD like I did with XP SP's.  But, maybe we should, just to have backup media on hand...

 

GTA IV

I know, how can an otherwise rational guy like George, who usually limits his video gaming to shooting IFR landings in a Cessna Caravan in Flight Simulator, possibly get excited about Grand Theft Auto IV?  Well, let's just say, everyone has quirks...and the reviews are great...  Don't know if it will support my dual monitor setup, but that would be hot ---have to do read the reviews I guess.  Crowned biggest selling video game EVER.  Already.

 

Around the Ranch:  The Weekend

One reason I never have a problem getting out of bed, excited and just plain 'amped' about every day on earth is there's always something to do.  Especially on weekends.

 

This morning at 8 AM we have an informal ham radio net at 3860 (LSB) +/- QRM - that may last till about 9, or so.   Call sign is AC7X.

 

Then a big country breakfast at 9 of hash browns, sausage, eggs, toast, fruit compote, milk...which will keep me going till dinner time.

 

By then, the roof ought to be dry enough to put the finishing flashing on my porch project and smear around roofing goo to keep the water out along the seams.

 

Next up comes rearranging of the ham radio desk (2-hours worth there) and working on an old Drake R-4A receiver which has almost no audio output.

 

After that, an hour or three  working on Peoplenomics.

 

This weekend Peoplenomics, the subscription service that funds this web site, this weekend focuses on a simplified way to look at home repair/remodeling/construction projects. 

 

Next weekend's report, which I'm research now, is a compilation of every possible way to make money.  I try to alternate between the 'hands on' doing of life in ways that have an economic payoff and the money/monetary/investment theory side.

 

Then, if my new software shows up, there will be an upgrade of ACT! to the 2008 version so it will integrate with Outlook 2007 correctly.

 

Somewhere along in here, my retired SF neighbor will be over for a beverage  in the shade of the new porch.  A few scattered logon problems for Peoplenomics subscribers will be fixed, and then there's another ,gourmet delight that Ealine manages to produce.

 

And that's just Saturday.

 

My point is simply this (and I will say it again so it really sinks in):  People who can't get out of bed and actively engage their weekends, choosing to work harder for others than they do for themselves, amaze me.  Why would I work much harder to make someone else rich, when I am surrounded by Acres of Diamonds of my own?

 

Something to think about.  I'm going to go fire up a radio and play for a few minutes... see you Monday morning - unless there's a big quake tonight, in which case, except a special report tomorrow.  It's admittedly a very low probability event, but time will tell, right?

 

Time to warm up the linear.

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Friday May 9, 2008

Time Monks: A Quake Warning

With the volcano(es) blowing up 800 miles south of Santiago Chile today, causing ash and problems in next-door Argentina,  plus the earthquake earlier this week centered about 100-miles east of Tokyo, our friends in predictive linguistics are concerned about short-term data values going to the idea that 'more quakes may be coming'.  They offered this advice in a rare between-reports update sent to their subscribers yesterday:

"Well, probably a very good time to go lash down everything moveable, and really examine your surroundings for what could shake loose if shakes started. Further, remember that in environments which you cannot control such as offices, look for triangular shaped voids which will be created when ceilings fall in on such things as FILLED file cabinets, and bookcases. Also note all exits, and be aware that stuff falls, and humans habitually do *NOT* look up... might be a good time to practice, eh? Oh, and a personal at- work/travel earthquake kit will have water in a stainless steel container, some quick energy calories, a small flashlight, and such medicines or other necessities to see you through 36/thirty-six hours. Needs to be small, and quickly reached."

Not that these are things that a careful person wouldn't already be doing, but they are looking at how the earthquake and volcano are related to each other on the globe.

 

The Tokyo quake was about 35 N/141 E  while Chile was going off around 45S by 72W.

 

Curiously, a mainstream reference that caught our eye on the MarketWatch site on Wednesday which hits on another linguistic meme we've been tracking for some time; the idea of a 'global coastal event'.  The MarketWatch headline reads: "Gathering Storm: The threat to coastal communities, including in the U.S., is growing."

 

In modelspace, I'm told that the GCE is not likely until late winter / early spring of 2009 and that the Myanmar event was not the global event because its effects, while horrific, were localized. 

 

Nevertheless, there's enough coming in around earthquake language that if Elaine and I lived in either Nevada, California, or the Midwest around the New Madrid areas, we'd be making sure, just on the outside chance of something.  And the Pacific Northwest in particular.

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Now a short detour into the weird. Want a highly speculative piece of the puzzle?  This is way 'out there' stuff,  but it struck me as damned peculiar and maybe relating to pending events, so here goes:  Some dots to connect:

 

What happened up north of Houston this week?  A huge sink hole opened up in Daisetta Texas.  Apparently, this has something to do with oil drilling in the area.

 

Not that sink holes are that rare.  Smaller ones pop up all overs the place.  Take Prescott, Arizona, or the sink hole that blocked traffic on I-70 in Frederick, Maryland a couple of weeks back.

 

But what makes the Texas sink hole an attention-grabber is that just two weeks before the sink hole developed, there was a UFO sighting reported over Baytown, Texas, barely 30-miles from where this week's Texas sinkhole developed.

 

I don't know about you, but this is a little close to be passed off as entirely 'coincidental'.  Especially when we have (purely anecdotal) reports that UFO activity increased in Southeast Asia prior to the 2004 tsunami, and appear more often ahead of other major events.

 

A person could speculate all day about this stuff Are the UFO's trans-dimensional/outside of [our] time tourist doing before and after picture taking?  What were they doing over Baytown two weeks and 30 miles away from this week's big sink hole 

 

What about the UFO sightings in the Stephenville, Texas area --  Do they mean something, or are they portents?  While the local press reports that "Unidentified Flying Objects not new to North Texas,"  I can't help but wonder if the risk of some large 'natural disaster pending" won't have a link of some kind to Texas as well as the obvious hot spots like the PNW, New Madrid quake region, Nevada, and California. 

 

Crawford is just 65 miles from the Stephenville Lights sightings and the president's daughter Jenna Bush is getting married there tomorrow. 

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Another tidbit to ponder with the Jenna wedding at hand:  We've had many references to "wedding interrupted" by an earthquake in modelspace.  But, is this the wedding weekend and does that mean a BIG QUAKE tomorrow?

 

With exclusive permission, here's a snip from the current HalfPastHuman Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis (link to www.urbansurvival.com  and www.halfpasthuman.com required):

"Within the Terra entity, the [wedding] sub set continues to grow its association with the [female personality]. The [wedding] of the [sister/female relative] is now associated with the [east coast] of the USofA, and further is indicated to be [interrupted] by [earthquakes]. We note that the [earthquakes] are *not* at the location of the [wedding], but are such that the [guests] will be [involved] with the [earthquake recovery], and are described as [spilling out] of the [wedding location] like [ants] out of a [fiery nest]. It will apparently be this image which will bring our first global mediastream images of the [female personality] as she will be in the background as a [wedding guest]. The data sets are pointing toward this [earthquake] as being the [first of parts] of the [natural disaster] which will be in place here in the USofA by the end of the year. The data is suggesting that a [combination/union/joining] of manifesting circumstances which are shown as being spread over the year will combine to form the basis of the [calamitous circumstances] for the [populace/USofA] by/through Fall. We have some preponderance of data sets pointing toward the [offshore] of the [northern west coast] of the USofA as being a [triangulated point] for the location of the [earthquake]. The [earthquake] is described as being a [lifting event], and [inducing (rolling) waves] which further are described as [altering hills] and [breaking dams] as the [waves] course [toward/to the east]. Further data suggests that the [earthquake] will cause [flooding] both immediately, and later in the Fall as the [aquifers] and [drainage patterns] of the lands have been altered. In addition, the [flooding] aspect/attribute set applies to the [earthquake] in that it appears as a [flood of earthquakes] rather than merely a single event. The data suggests so many [tremors] that it will be [academic] as to which to pick for the [earthquake] and which to pick as [aftershocks].

Hopefully, the model will be wrong.  But there's little cost associated with battening things down.  Hopefully, this read of the future will be wrong.  But, the linguistics have been correct often enough in the past that a mention and some bottled water seems warranted the day before a possible hot date.

 

Worse than Tsunami?

The Burma (Myanmar) death toll estimates keep climbing. Highest figure so far is 500,000 being mentioned.

 

Screaming Oil

Over $125 a barrel now.  Is the $200 spike an illusion, self-fulfilling prophesy, or supply and demand working themselves out?

 

Bucks for Buffett?

The headline "Stocks head for lower open after AIG reveals need for cash" could be important.  I wonder how some of the insurance companies would deal with a massive earthquake, or some other calamitous loss given the current market conditions?

 

BOT Improves

OK, so we're still going into debt by $58.2 billion in the latest reporting month but that is an improvement however slight.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $148.5 billion and imports of $206.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.2 billion, down from $61.7 billion in February, revised. March exports were $2.6 billion less than February exports of $151.1 billion. March imports were $6.1 billion less than February imports of $212.8 billion.

In March, the goods deficit decreased $3.5 billion from February to $68.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $10.4 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.5 billion to $104.7 billion, and imports of goods decreased $6.0 billion to $173.3 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $43.8 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $33.4 billion.

In March, the goods and services deficit decreased $4.8 billion from March 2007. Exports were up $20.0 billion, or 15.5 percent, and imports were up $15.1 billion, or 7.9 percent.

Circular Paper Department

The president this week signed H.R. 5715.  One analysis I've seen says that this will empower the US Department of Education to buy up bundled student loans that lenders can't find other buyers for.  So, government is buying yet more paper...and that will support inflation in the higher ed sector where independent undergrads will be able to borrow and grant  up to $57,500 per award year's worth.

 

Curious Intelligence

Remember back when all those cables in the Middle East were being cut and there was speculation that it would be a precursor to an attack on Iran.  I don't like to go back too far in news stories, but I think this is an important "after action note".  According to a report, Egypt now says "No ships present when internet cable cut."

 

Somewhere, in the back of my mind, there's a half-formed thought that those cable breaks were not all 'coincidental' and they might be part of some kind of back-channel message to that part of the world that would go something like: "If you think you can screw with the West's PTB, remember that we can put you in the stone age electronically just as you might be able to put us there by cutting off oil..."

 

West Beirut Seized

Hezbollah claims it had made a major advance in Lebanon, as things continue to heat up.

 

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Coping:  MainStreamMedia Control

Several readers have commented on the introduction of a new Net Neutrality bill in Washington as getting more/better coverage out of Europe than in stateside press.  Gee, gosh, how unsurprising is that?  This, boys and girls, is where Uncle George tells you the Three Conglomerates and their Goldilocks on the net...and how without corporate preference at a price, sites like this one will keep the candles of Freedom burning by encouraging people to assume nothing, question everything, and make counter-accusations.

 

Cost of Food

Keep an eye on this one:

"On May 1, 2007, the milk-feed price ratio was 2.67. What that means is that one dollar of feed was necessary to produce $2.67 of milk paid to the dairyman.

This week, dairy farmers got even worse news. The new milk-feed ratio is less than two dollars. As of Wednesday, May 7, 2008, it's 1.90."

Cost of Fencing

Going up - quickly says a reader:

"Checked with local farm store owner (Buhl, Idaho). This week price of those 4x16 fencing panels jumped from $16.99 (on sale) to $24.99 (new stock). Buy your fencing, shovels, axes, bars, roofing...now!!!! "

How to Fix The Economy

In one easy lesson suggested by a reader:

"Jobs created in SimCity and Grand Theft Auto now to be reflected in government employment data."

Reader Note

I appreciate getting lots of 'news tips' (link elsewhere on this page), but I'd sure appreciate it if when you send in a link you look at the data on the story.  Just as a for instance, someone send in a story about how "Wyoming sheriffs put feds in their place".  The person thought it was something we should be aware of.  Well, yes, we have been - and for more than a year!  So please, when you send in tips, please try to remember to look at the dateline because we're riding the wave around hear - the one that's building, not the last one ashore.  Thanks.

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Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net

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Peoplenomics.com    Accidental Extinction?

This week I'm going to place a number of major "dots" before you, suggest a possible meaning of the dots -- namely that an extinction level event is pending in a couple of year -- and then propose that we all just go on as though everything is dandy and everything will work out right in the end because lining dots up in just a certain way is no guarantee that it's how the future will really work out when it gets here. Instead, it's only one wildly speculative version of how the future could work out. As the time monks are prone to reminding me "George, if you can imagine it, that about assures us that your particular version of the future won't show up." After a preview discussion of this week's content, they suggested I send out sample sized bottles of Imodium AD in advance for readers of weak constitution, but I'll leave such frivolities to Big Budget Newsletters, although a shot of Jack at the end of this report might be comforting. Forewarned is forearmed - so to the dots!

 

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Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

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I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

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Thursday May 8, 2008

Bummer Summary: It Really Is Worse

It's one thing for a lone nutjob in the woods of