Replaying 1929

"Standup Economics"

This economy is a what?

 

Free daily update: Bsuiness, economic, financial news & perspective    

Updated:   Saturday    March 29,  2008    07:55  CST

The Early Briefing   In depth perspectives are for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com


 Provided by Peoplenomics.com

Subscriber
   Entrance

Customer Service

  Local Navigation:  

    Home
   Headline Scanner

    ● Consulting Services

    ● Submit a News Tip

    ● Last week's Column

    ● Archives & Library

    ● News Source Links

    ● Street Level
      Economics


 
At the

Peoplenomics
  Books
tore:
 

"How to Live on $10,000
 a year (or less!)"

 

  Related Sites
    Peoplenomics

    Half Past Human

    Independence Jrnl

    Elliott Wave on  Deflation

    Bulletproofretirement

    Bull Not Bull

    CoasttoCoastAM.com

 Web Bot Project

    Simple Explanation

    NE Power Outage
    Example

  Favorite Colleagues

    Fiend Bear

     Capitalstool.com
   
 
Jim Kunstler

     Safe Haven

     Life After the Oil Crash

     Peak Oil.com

     Steven Quayle

     Coast to Coast AM

     Moral Equivalent of War

     End Times Report

     Solari Action Network

      News with Views

    

 

North American Earthquakes — Last 72 Hours

 Our Favorite Tool::

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/images/common/cpi.gif

   Vendors  & Such


    Posters:
   
www.epingo.com

    Machine parts:   www.emachineshop.com

   Printed Circuit Boards

    www.pad2pad.com

   Commodity Trading

   www.fortwealth.com

   Bullion Buying/Selling

   www.kitco.com

   Web Hosting

   www.emwd.com

   Radiation Monitoring

   www.ki4u.com

   Emergency Food Stores

   www.beprepared.com

   Tequila

   www.eldontequila.com

 

 

 

 

|  Last Week   Peoplenomics    |    Library    |  Independence Journal  | Business news from UrbanSurvival.com's RSS feed 

| Site Disclaimer|  Publisher's Note    | Elliott Wave |    Technorati Profile              |


Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE
This page is also mirrored here and may be available unblocked in some corp/gov offices

 

Revolution Monday: The Bankster's Coup

Back in earlier times in America, before the Central Bankers took over, there were lots of financial institutions in the country.  Most were fiercely independent and they played a key role in the development of the nation.  That was a time when the White House was able to dictate to the banks and financial interests rather than today's mirror/reversed situation where bankers largely tell the government what to do.

 

Of particular significance are two historical events.  One is the history of the Second Bank of the United States, which, after its federal charter was withdrawn, ended up bankrupt in a few years. The key thing to remember is that President Andrew Jackson was so mad at the corruption and attempts to influence government, that he pulled the 'federal charter' of the bank, leading to its demise.

 

Key point: The President dictated to the Banks, not the other way around.

 

A second moment of history to be recalled is two days before Christmas 1913 the passage of the Federal Reserve Act.  Perhaps the most thoroughly researched book on the forming of the 'Fed" to date has been G. Edwards Griffin's "Creature From Jekyll Island" where the bankers of the day hatched their plans for the monetary takeover of America in a scheme which would, in effect, allow private bankers to charge the country interest on it's own money.

 

A short video which you can see here, lets some of the secrets out: The Fed's actual owners are secret and the watering down of the purchasing power of the dollar has been successfully 'spun' from theft through watering down to the popular belief that prices go up through a mythical process called "inflation" which was ground into the public mind during the last Great Depression and its aftermath.

 

Key point:  From 1913 until this week, the Fed dealt only with banks.

 

Now fast forward to this coming Monday when, according to a Reuters dispatch, "The U.S. Treasury will propose...that the Federal Reserve be given sweeping new powers that would make it chief regulator with authority to require actions and to ensure market stability"

 

Key Point:  Having seized control of the currency in 1913, and having sold the notion that prices somehow mysteriously levitate in the general economy independent of the supply of goods, market demand, and supply of money, the bankers club - the not-really Federal Reserve will begin its push Monday to control much more than banking.  It's about to seize Wall Street.

 

In doing so, the Treasury is expected to promote the merging of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission that oversees the commodities markets.

 

Oh, and in dabbling their toes in owning (as securities pledge against loans) CMO's and such, the Fed may also have tipped its hat that it's getting into real estate ownership.

 

Context and Impacts

There are many ways one can describe the Fed's expansion into non-banking financial regulation. 

 

One way is to argue that because of the electronic linkage between markets, its necessary to ensure 'market stability' at all costs, thus justifying the expansion.

 

On the other hand, as an independent speculator, which I readily confess to being, there's another equally  descriptive term:  Price Fixing.

 

The bailout of the financial institutions which we've been witnessing develop over the past year, or so, having arisen out of the mortgage bubble collapse, in pure economic terms should have resulted in the destruction via bankruptcy of the immoral, unethical, and unsound characters who caused the condition.

 

However, in today's United States, which adheres to a more generally socialist agenda (*e.g. government control and central planning) such self-cleaning properties of American Free enterprise are no longer politically acceptable.  It's just not Agenda 21.

 

Instead of allowing market forces to shut down Bear Stearns, or other "too big to fail" institutions, what we witness instead is the methodical use of taxpayer monies to bail out the morally and otherwise bankrupt firms that gambled too heavily on CMO's, CDO's, SIV's, and the lot, with probable foreknowledge that (wink, wink, nod, nod) there really would be no risk to those making the decisions: The Taxpayers would be writing the checks to cover bad bets, which is where we are today.

 

In a country where the number of movie and mindless infotainment channels outnumbers the financial channels by perhaps a 200 to 1 ratio, it's understandable, yet sad anyway, that the bankers are using the excuse of "market stability" to enforce price fixing.

 

Is it possible that the linguistic work  of www.halfpasthuman.com which has been pointing to a rebellion/revolution this spring and lasting for several years was not about regular people being priced out of their homes by foreclosures, losing their jobs through offshoring, or walking because gas is headed skyward and instead refers to a banker's coup?

---

Americans have always had a 'silent partner' in their investments.  Whether it was a farm in Washington's time, or a Silicon Valley startup in the Internet bubble days, business has always paid some tribute to government in order to secure our greater good.

 

However, when I stand back and review the longer view, I can't help but notice that government's tribute, as a percentage of the gross, has expanded 20-50 fold since revolutionary days.  Simply put, the bankers have been doing a marvelous job of getting a larger and larger piece of the fruits of the enterprising American worker's labors.

 

I have no doubt - well, OK some - that the Fed Chairman and the Secretary of the Treasury are well-intentioned:  They realize that if the banking system were allowed to go through its normal 'self-cleaning cycle' that a lot of damage would be done, and millions would see their retirement accounts evaporate, because the investment community conned everyday folks into a belief that investment advisers and their ilk could make better decisions about what's a sound investment, than could a thoughtful worker who considers carefully where to save and invest.

 

Well, surprise, surprised, they didn't.  They puffed up the books and sold liar's paper.  But rather than fess up - with a few well earned visits to the iron-bar hotel, the Fed's bailing out Wall Street.  But in return, this deal with the Devil, now turns to a pact to honor the Devil's spawn, the banksters behind the scenes... the 30% interest crowd.

 

Thus, as the era of American capitalism comes to an end, we see the institution of American socialism in its rawest price fixing mode entering the scene.  Like junkies hooked on smack, the American worker has been fattened by the bankers of cheap credit, and absent assent to a slaughter of our freedom, we'll be beggared and bankrupted one-by-one and sent to tent cities where colored wrist bands will mark those allowed into the Bush presidency's hidden Hoovervilles.

 

Monday will also mark, if there had been any doubt previously, the end of the Republican Party that I grew up with.  There was a time when the GOP stood for small central government, a progressive civil rights stance, strong belief in states rights, and minimal foreign entanglements along with strict adherence - to the letter - of the greatest Nation founding document ever.

 

Gee, I don't suppose you have any idea where the real Republican Party is, do you?  I routinely call the current batch of pretenders "republicorps" because the universal solution to all problems in the country has been more laws, more governance, and oh, by the by, a bigger share for your silent partner.

 

The myth also persists that that there is an opposition party, the Democratic Party.  Yet I continue to call this party the 'democorps."  Why?  Because the democorps, like the republicorp have their hands so far into the corporate cookie jars and have succumbed to PAC attacks to such a large extent, that genuine change of a policy found lacking can no longer be achieved because the money and 'grease' rules the day; the grease being voter turnouts promised by the PAC's, the campaign workers supplied, and so forth.

 

So, Monday the Revolution begins.  Bankers will promote their socialist / price fixing, total government control of markets under the guise of 'saving us' from misdeeds by people who have made what are called 'errors in investment judgments'.  In an earlier time, it would have been called fraud or rampant speculations and people would be fired, bankrupted, jailed, or hung for such breach of the public trust.

 

"Market Stability" is like pregnancy:  You're either price fixing, or your not.

---

I've been writing about since 1995 about the economic future of America.  You can find papers and notes I've made all the way back to 1997 in the library on this site.  At it's core, this site has been watching for the painful - but manageable - wringing out of malinvestment from the system so that America can go through its periodic rebirth, formerly happening in long wave economic pivotal years like the Panic of 1873 and then the Depression of the 1930's.

 

In Biblical times, these were Jubilee Years (go reread Leviticus) and all debts were forgiven.  In modern days, it was Long Wave Economics, but the same principles of death and rebirth continued.

 

Most weekends I offer a summary of various news events, a little contexting to maybe help you see the way to the future more clearly.  But this weekend, there is only one story.  ^There's a revolution coming Monday.

---

America has one of its most important decisions ever just ahead.  Although it may be summarized incorrectly here, my view is that it comes down to a choice between two alternatives that demand your most solemn consideration.

 

We can, on the one hand, accept the proposals put forth by what I refer to as the corpgov and banksters.  In accepting their proffered solution, we will be agreeing to more government and what's worse, more government control of private enterprise.  With it will come further price fixing of financial markets via the interventions of the Plunge Protection Team, more formally the President's Working Group on Markets.

 

The outcome here will be a complete government stranglehold on your finances, assuring that without perfect cooperation with the system, you and your descendants will be "subjects" of the system rather than Free Men and Women.  You'll be told where to work, what to think, and how to act to a much greater extent than even now because as history has taught us, absolute power5 corrupts absolutely.

 

The other outcome, which I admit is much less likely but the one I personally favor, is to take the other path.  The one both political parties (before corporate subversion) followed:  Strictly allegiance to the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and a balance between the legislative, executive and judicial branches.  Oh, did I mention sound money?

 

The problem with this path is will hurt - and maybe a lot:  People will lose savings, but the flip side is the bankers can be brought to heel; the spiraling growth of government can be slowed.  Maybe even reversed.  Freedom - in the purest sense of the Framers - can be preserved.  Or, it can be lost forever.

 

By the way; it never occurred to me to put it into a web browser, but see what happens when you click on www.usconstitition.gov or www.billofrights.gov.  Nothing!  Is this some kind of a hint?  Is the outcome already assured?

---

I've chosen with my wife to live in a remote part of East Texas because of the spirit of the place. We don't have credit card debt, and we have voluntarily eschewed the 'flash and bling' media pimped lifestyle based on debt and excessive personal consumption.  In a word, we've tried to 'unplug' from the mainstream a bit.  No texting, no long commute, no twice weekly trips to big-name department stores, fewer prepared foods.  Instead, we have a garden, raise a few animals, and pay our taxes.

 

The people out here are more 'real' than citified folks.  The idea that a person's value is implicit in his vehicle, clothes, brand of cell phone even, well, that's just patently absurd.  Strangely, with enough media hype, exactly that kind of thinking seems to prevail in many urban areas, though.  We've decided to voluntarily downscale.

---

 

So the Banker's Revolution begins Monday and the choice is simple:

  • We can take the easy way which means more government and a furtherance of the recent price fixing in markets...I'm sorry; maintenance of market stability.  Come to the great casino, no losers here.  Good times, but more regulations, less freedom of choice and a bigger and meaner Big Brother.  Did someone over there lose?  Well, you just chip in and pay for their losses.  The house will keep a share for its hard work, of course.

  • Or, we can take the hard path and limit bankers, contain government, hold greedy speculators accountable, and let the markets clean themselves.  And if we make bad choices, we will live with those.  Hard times for a while, but 30% interest rates can be beaten back to 8%, states can legislate usury, and the wealthy elite 'ruling class' can be sent packing: Those who would export our jobs, leave our borders unfenced, and abdicate their responsibilities to preserve sound money, are welcome to leave.

 

So give it some thought this weekend.  Which side will you choose?  Soft and Easy but totally Ruled, or Hard and Thrifty - yet FREE?

 

Let me know your thoughts. It might make an interesting Monday article if anyone responds.  Send comments to george@ure.net.

 

I'll leave you with three quotes that may help your deliberations on this momentous moment, which will surely pass unmarked by MainStreamMedia:

 

Winston Churchill's "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat."

 

Karl Marx's "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs."

 

And the most prescient of all: The Walt Kelly Cartoon character Pogo:

"We have met the enemy and he is us."

There is no other story this weekend that even comes close to the magnitude of this one.

 

This week for Subscribers to Peoplenomics:

Camping In: The "After-Action" Report

Before this weekend I was pretty confident that this weekend's "Camp In" preparedness test would find me totally ready. Yessir, I was set - or at least so I thought. It only took about 6-hours to arrive - somewhat humbled - at the realization that even though I've got some of the "big stuff" (food, gun, water, medicine, and the usual stuff you read about on the 'net), I've also got a huge 'punch list' of things to correct before I rerun the test in September, just before the linguistics tell us 'Beware October.' I think you'll find some of my 'blind spots' instructive, and they explain why I'm planning to make "camping in" a quarterly event around here...

 

                More for Subscribers                 Subscription Information

 

Free Medical Advice?

If you know anyone who is sick of those endless "me too" and "good times are just ahead" reports on the economy, tell them about this site and our strange outlook on things.  If they still like you fine, and if not, you didn't need them anyway....  Click here to send 'em an invite...

 

No More Income Bents

To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here.  They're just $5.  And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House  he is not an incumbent for that office  having never held that job before, you see.  And the CONgressional folks?  Don't even get me started... Primaries this week in Texas and Ohio, to name just a few - eyes wide shut?

 

Cheap, Cheaper, Cheapest

There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such.  It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is  our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.  Still just $10.

----

Last week's report is here.    If for back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 


Friday March 28, 2008

Consumers: Tapped Out?

The latest from the Commerce Department:

Personal income increased $56.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $48.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $12.0 billion, or 0.1 percent. In January, personal income increased $30.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $43.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $42.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates. Real disposable income increased 0.3 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in January. Real PCE was unchanged in February; and increased 0.1 percent in January.

The key number is that consumer spending was up only 1/10th of one percent - which (by the time you back out inflation) is a negative as I read it. As for your personal bottom line:

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments increased $15.8 billion in February, compared with an increase of $45.8 billion in January. PCE increased $12.0 billion, compared with an increase of $42.0 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a positive $27.1 billion in February, in contrast to a negative $5.7 billion in January. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a positive 0.3 percent in February, in contrast to a negative 0.1 percent in January. Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.

Maybe...remember here about 4-5 months back the methodology was changed when the personal savings rate kept coming in -1.x percent each month, so if you're finding you can't save anything, don't think of yourself as below average.  Think of it as your patriotic participation in a national recession that isn't being acknowledged.

 

Computing Notes: Time Monks and Viruses

Cliff and Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com have reported some serious hardware damage ,from an attack on the data gathering system.  Serious enough to do actual hardware damage.  As a result, while they build up a new machine, write code to the revamped NT 4 kernel they use to prevent another insurgency, and rerun processing, it will be a week or so before the next part of ALTA 1308 is posted.

---

None of the main data set collected for the run was damaged but whatever a redirecting virus is, it's enough to make the otherwise mellow time monks have mortgage banker kind of blood pressure levels.

---

I wonder if, when government statisticians are working on alleged 'productivity gains from computer horsepower going up, whether they consider the actual increase is massively watered down by anti-virus, spam control, phishing, and the 101 other things that eat into what should have been increased productivity?

 

My personal word processing effectiveness has been about the same since the TRS-80 days using a word processor called "Electric Pencil"  - and not a one BSOD (*blue screen of death): I was able to make spreadsheets in VisiCalc and 1-2-3 that we just as incomprehensible as the ones I crank out from time to time in Excel 2007.

 

While the back-end hooks of modern spreadsheets being able to hook into a SQL database are useful, they are also time consuming and often seem to promote management decisions that become overly complex.  My personal experience is that few decisions require much over 2 decimal place resolution and are made most effectively when more attention is paid to the 'framing questions' rather than the complexity of calculations. 

---

One of the time monk's predictions about soaring grain prices continues to unfold.  We noticed this morning that the "Jump in rice price fuels fears of unrest."

 

We've got an eye out for the "corn sugars /artificial sweeteners are dangerous" meme which is due to be popping in MSM shortly, says the model.

 

Government Math

Great headline on the Grassfire Immigration blog this week in case you missed it:  "Exposing DHS Border Fence Myth:  How 302 Miles (of fence) is Actually Less than 10."

---

Meantime, CNN report "Mexico sends troops to U.S. border, officials say".  Excuse me?  What border?

 

The Runs: Mitt Picking

It's looking like Mitt Romney will be John McCain's running mate on the GOP ticket - at least that's the MSM hype which will give pollsters something to write about ad naseum for a few weeks.

---

I'll just go back to bed; wake me if anyone talks about a real issue like the Fed printing up money, the collapse of American industry due to offshoring, etc... I should have a nice long nap.

---

What's this?  "Obama casts wide blame for Financial Crisis and proposes Homeowner Aid"OMG: Someone's talking about an actual issue finally. 

 

War Coming? Ousted Admirals

I'm continuing to pick up bits about the ouster of Admiral William Fallon.  I mentioned to you last fall that I suspected that one of the preceding/leading indicators that a strike on Iran was imminent would be the dismissal of folks, like Fallon, who would not stand for US/Western 'first use' of nukes.  Today, a report in the Bangor Daily News says "Fallon Was Right."

---

Also curiously timed was the firing of Vice Admiral John Stufflebeem this week.

---

Media worldwide are seeing an increased likelihood of a US Iran and headlines like "US moves towards engaging Iran" are popping up.  But, on the other side this week, Iran is saying it may go after the West for damages as a result of economic sanctions enacted by the Security Council because of it's nuclear program.

 

Oil Jitters

We can't help but note that oil is hovering around $107 after the oil pipeline bombing in Iraq, part of the Basra fighting.

 

Earth Hour Weekend

What?  You don't know that 35 countries are planning to put lights out for an hour Saturday to combat global warming?  Yeah, we were in the dark about this, too...

 

Another Troubled Gov.

Thought Eliot Spitzer was the only governor with troubles?  Today we can add Anibal Acevedo Vila, the governor of Puerto Rico to the list - he's been charged with 19 criminal counts related to election laws.

 

Zimbabwe Elections

Say, you don't think 5,000% inflation would be an election issue, do you?  Despite that, there's still a chance Robert Mugabe can hang on to his power in Zimbabwe in elections this weekend.  OK, a slim chance...

 

Cheese Scare

Italian officials insist that Italian buffalo Mozzarella cheese is safe despite reports of elevated dioxin levels. Hell, I didn't know they had buffalo in Italy, let alone that they have enough milk from them to make pizza cheese....

 

Nice Gigs Department: UC's New Pres

At a time when student loans are drying up, and folks are having a tough time figuring out how to get kids through school, we note that  Mark Yudof, the head of the University of Texas system has a new job as president of the University of California.  Compensation: $828,084 says the LA Times

 

Lemme see: At $4,000 per student loan, that would be only 207 enrollments.  Ain't the education business great?

 

Bad Gigs Department: Bear Bummer

Bear Stearns' chairman Jimmy Cayne's holdings once worth over $1-billion  have been sold off this week for $61 million.  That bear bites.

---

So, how many student loan enrollments was that loss using the same $4,000 per student loan figure?  Well, the drop in value was $939 million, so that would be...uh...234,750 enrollments in higher ed...yikes!

 

--- snip and save department ---

 

Coping: What to Hold, What to fold:

A reader asked for some clarification of my outlook for what's ahead...and although this isn't investment advice, it's my 'take on things' from where we sit today:

"George-

You indicate that commodities may peak in Summer and collapse in September. Does your definition of commodities include gold, silver, platinum and/or palladium? Does it include base metals such as copper, nickel, tin, lead, zinc, etc.?"

So, I wrote back...

"I hope this doesn’t sound too obtuse, but think of it in more of a soft martial arts kind of look, rather than focusing on the enemy’s hand, fist, gun, numbchucks, throwing stars or whatever. The great trick of the illuminati is to engage the monkey mind so deeply on the abstraction/symbolism level, that the harsh reality layer is overlooked at our peril. Which is a polite way of saying that we have been harnessed by our greed to suit PTB needs to a large extent.

My sense (and a view that could be fitted quite well with a final commodity cycle peak over the summer months) is that we are coming to the ‘end of paper abstractions’. Apparently, the core of the PTB (*or some faction thereof) has gotten to where it wants to be ahead of whatever comes next. Letting the system collapse may well be an agenda, or it may be the chaotic outcome of greed – but most of us who have studied enough are skeptical of assertions of ‘coincidence’.

Thus, from this summer forward, while “things” will have value based on their location and suitability to a task or need, paper enters an accelerating decline phase.

So, to cut to the chase: If you have a paper abstraction that represents a title, claim, or asserts ‘rights’ over any commodity, then the validity of that paper will continue to exist only so long as there is sufficient operating infrastructure to facilitate continued and future paper or digital exchange.

For example: Let’s say that come June 15th, the price of silver has swollen to $45 an ounce and I have an option struck at $25 an ounce. On ‘paper’ basis I would have $20/ounce of profit and on a 5,000 ounce option, I’d get $100,000 for each option.

But now, suppose that I have successfully sold the option and order a wire out from the clearing bank to my personal bank.

If the order is not executed, but remains as my ‘booked profit’ I can could be stuck with a taxable gain, even if I don’t receive the money.

If the transfer is made out, but is not credited to my account inbound, then I am similarly liable for a huge tax, but have not received the gain.

Even if I receive the money, in the event of hyper inflation, within weeks, I could be in a position of not being able to afford more than a few gallons of gas by, say the end of the year.

These are all extreme points, but what I’m getting to is that right now, we are witnessing a rollover of the financial consciousness of the world: Banks are waking up to the “OMG: People want real money out of the digiworld stuff, after all!” What happens? Money dries up.

As money dries up, consumer credit falters, and we enter into a depression with a cataclysmic collapse of everything we’ve known up until that point. A breakdown of the formerly United States is not out of the question – and the recent US military accord with Canada, allowing foreign troops to operate under “federal” auspices is now accomplished fact.

In this sense, my view is that ‘commodities’ should be thought of more as the ‘abstraction’ layer. Will silver and gold be able to get you a meal? Likely much more. A hotel in San Francisco sold for 4-ounces of gold in the depths of the Great Depression.

So yes, gold – the metal – will do very well. But gold – the commodity – or silver – the commodity (*and by this I mean as an abstraction) may have decidedly higher risk from summer forward into what promised to be a detective thriller-like finish to the year’s financial unwinding.

I’ve CC’d Clif, as he may be able to put a finer point on it – and I will try to post this (less you name, of course) tomorrow morning, because it’s an important mental distinction to hold.

If you were to flee your home as a refuge tomorrow would you rather have 10 gold coins sewn into your shorts, or would you like to have trading slips attesting to the ownership of 10’s of millions of dollars in what used to be loosely thought of as ‘money’ or the representation of ownership of commodities?

As we move past the Fall equinox, the astute investor will be playing ‘catch falling knives’ only with paper that can be lost without impact, while stores of things of value (food, water, gold, silver, ammo, medicines – all these should be done before school starts this fall. Palladium? Rhodium? Titanium? I don’t know anyone with a simple field test (rock and acid) for those. Gold and silver have been around a while, though and seem to work. Would you flee with a ton of copper, several tons of zinc, or who knows how much coffee? 10,000 pounds or whatever?

I believe Cliff and Igor would agree: It’s time to get real and portable as an option, and see through the veil cast by monetary/paper asset symbolism. Kinda hard to do – it’s deliberately blinding. Ask any mortgage banker who used to have a job and a big house.

Hope this clarifies?"

And, as I expected, Cliff chimed in with...

"It would not be surprising for the whole of *all* paper trading systems to break down. This would include the 'commodities trading'. We are even now getting some hints that the late spring lock up may include the lock up of options/futures as there may be an open acknowledgement of the impossibility of delivery of any kind, ergo, no paper options which would include delivery. clif "

To all of this, the reader kindly wrote back:

"Dear George,

Thanks for taking the time to frame such a lenghty and thoughtful response. I agree that it would be worth addressing this issue in your daily report. I can't imagine that many people will believe that the scenario that you have outlined is possible, at least to the degree that you have stated. Fortunately for me, I have followed your work as well as Clif/Igor's for a long enough time so that I am better prepared than most people for what is likely to happen. Perhaps I need to take a couple of additional actions. Thanks again."

---

Send snip and save comments and ideas to george@ure.net

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 


Thursday March 27, 2008

Reader Note:  The twisted/gouted knee is a lot better today, so here comes a regular workday methinks. Thanks to everyone who sent along suggestions on how to get better faster...there are sometimes, it seems when the best possible course of action is pure living and lots of rest, along with becoming immobile.  I'm not sure which is these is most distasteful - none seemed fun at all...

 

What Hangs on the Buck?

Having had some serious down time over the past couple of days to ponder things without two phones ringing and three monitors demanding 110% attention, I have spent a fair amount of time pondering the 'chicken and egg' question of the US dollar's fate.  Which, in case you have been oblivious to local food and gasoline price inflation, has progressed from a sniffle to death's bed lately, despite the Beltway Jingoists and 'deciders' who mutter nonsense like "Strong dollar policy".  That's akin to screaming that the "Titanic has an unsinkable policy" while the orchestra played on in the precious minutes after the iceberg's goring.

 

Cliff and Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com , which provides linguistic-shift derived views of the future, have been watching what I've described here as the "rebellion/revolution' meme in linguistic modelspace developing for more than a year.  Today it's clear that the 'rebellion/revolution' meme is growing as a reaction to the significant cognitive dissonance surrounding so many of today's news events.

 

Cognitive dissonance is best explained as the gap between what you're told and those events that you can plainly see.  Over some period of time, cognitive dissonances result in mental/attitudinal shifts.   An example recently has been the banking/finance/dollar/liar's paper debacle.  We're told first that the problem is 'contained', then that it's 'manageable' and now that the public might be stuck for the costs of the  bankster bailouts.

 

An Ernest Istook story headlined "Mismanaging the Mortgage Mess" is particularly instructive because it consciously (or otherwise) has been picking up the 'rebellion/revolution' meme.

 

On the surface, it's a good report that makes the [painful] point that "Taxpayers could be hit with a $300 billion-plus tab to help homeowners who filed false loan applications as well as those just struck by bad luck."

 

But below the surface, and the story contains an almost textbook example of how language 'leaks' future events to those studying language shift, the author begins the story with these words:

"Bad decisions travel in pairs. Worse, they sometimes travel in mobs. "

Do you see it?  I don't care how skeptical you may be of our notion that the future is foreshadowed by shifts in language; this is story's opening line should scare the daylights out of even the most severe skeptic:  It has drawn a direct link between 'the mortgage mess' [the headline], bad decisions, and mobs.

---

Another writer who I have to give a gold star to if Bob Chapman of "The International Forecaster" who writes in a March 2008 newsletter posted yesterday over at GoldSeek:

"We have some news for the Illuminati. The people are fed up with socialism for the rich, and moral hazard gone wild. We predict that a revolution is coming, so you better be careful, or you will all end up swinging at the end of a rope for treason. You will be the ones who will be "bagged an' tagged," and your media morons will be "tarred and feathered" as they watch the trap doors open."

Sometimes its frightening to see how precisely events percolate up out of the quantum foam of language into current events and headlines.

---

Revolutions are tipping points.  Just as the July 2001 articles I wrote and posted here foreshadowed a tipping point later in 2001 after which life would be forever different, so too in current linguistic reads, life is about to become very unlike what most people expect. 

 

Sometimes revolutions can be peaceful; an example of which might be something like the Viagra Revolution now 10-years old.  "Viagra was a revolution waiting to happen" begins the article.

 

So whether you're talking about a revolution in Australian higher education, a coffee-drinking revolution expected to sweep Russia, or a revolution promoting Muslim website,  the 'rebellion/revolution' shift is patently manifest.

---

Bryan Mahoney writes in the Lexington Minuteman, pondering how the American Revolution would have occurred should it happen today, rather than some 233 years ago:

"It would start with Paul Revere’s and William Dawes’ midnight high-speed chase down Route 2. Capt. John Parker, a lawyer and a dentist, would be a Desert Storm vet waiting with his men at Not Your Average Joe’s for the arrival of the British. Just before sunrise, William Diamond fires up his iPod connected to his thumping car stereo, signaling the Minutemen to march...."

OK, maybe it wouldn't work out quite that way.  But behind the headlines there's a sense of rebellion/revolution against the financial morass congealing into a new reality which will evolve over the balance of this year; accelerating in October and lasting until early 2010.

---

What it will be like depends on who you ask.  Some think it will be like the Argentina collapse.  Others will point to the Russian financial collapse of nearly 10-years ago.  Surveying the financial sector wreckage, the Moscow Times notes:

"The U.S. government response is evident: Its main concern is to maintain liquidity. The Federal Reserve is going to cut its interest rate as much as it has to and much faster than ever before. A federal fund rate of as little as 1 percent later in 2008 would be extreme, considering that the rate in September was 5.25 percent, but it is quite possible. At the same time, the federal government is increasing its fiscal deficit to stimulate demand. Reassuringly, the Federal Reserve has facilitated the purchase by JPMorgan Chase of the failing investment bank Bear Stearns in no time, trying to stop financial panic and making sure that the banking and payment system does not freeze because of fear.

Russia, by contrast, has learned its lessons from 1998, and it has been buttressed by its large oil revenues. With its huge current account and budget surpluses as well as international reserves, Russia is not very vulnerable. Nonetheless, it will be affected in several different ways because it is highly integrated into the world economy. In fact, Russia's main problem might be an abundance of capital inflows.

What will happen with the abundant liquidity that is being poured into the U.S. economy through the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy? Americans are certainly not going to buy more houses, as price declines are predicted to last until 2010. Nor are they going to purchase commercial bonds, whose reputation has suffered badly. And why acquire U.S. equities when the economy is slowing or declining and profits must be falling? Instead, shell-shocked Americans are likely to boost their minimal personal savings, which will further reduce demand. Indeed, why keep money in the United States? The U.S. dollar is currently falling like a stone, and such falls are not easily halted. Even "safe" treasury bonds are losing value as the currency plummets. "

One of the key aspects of the Russian financial revolution was the country's reassertion of a link between gold and it's paper money. 

---

All of which gets us around to the main point of the day.  Even though the spot price of gold in some places has not seemingly reacted as one would expect, headlines like the "US dollar mostly lower, gold up in European morning trading"  has some serious implications.

 

Paper instruments are in a major global retreat.  There's a major power shift underway as a result, too.

 

As crazy as it may sound, the very bankers who are bailing one another out with more borrowing (e.g. printing of money, which in turn waters down the purchasing power of the general public) have managed to spin events such that the "Fed May Emerge from Crisis with more Influence at SEC Expense."

 

Yes, the very Fed that pumped money to feed the Internet Bubble and then the Housing Bubble, is now in effect saying "Let US watch those naughty investment bankers down on Wall Street. And oh, pay no mind that the public will be stuck for $300 billion of the bailout costs, or more."

 

The global marketplace, not being quite as gullible as MSM zombies in America, have viewed all of this with skepticism and have been lowering their valuation of the US Dollar.  In the wake of the mythical "strong dollar policy" which have yet to see articulated in a meaningful way.

---

As the rebellion/revolution meme progresses over coming months, keep an eye on the sequencing of events. 

 

Before the year's out, we may see what really hangs in the balance of the dollar's fate:  Bankers.

 

Revolutionary Notes: Food Riots

If you don't see famine on the march, quick, go over and read Tony Lopez's column in today's Manila Times.  A quote that goes to the rebellion/revolution meme in GlobalPop (in modelspace):

"You are going to cause a riot, a revolution, and this time, it is going to be bloody."

Say, I haven't bugged you about this for a few days, but do you have your garden in yet?

 

I don't suppose you want to read about how the honey bee colony collapse has been parallel the increased use of genetically modified crops

 

Dirty Auditors

"Report Assails Auditor for Work at Failed Home Lender" in the NYT.  Not that this is surprising, but we continue to wonder where are the people who should be going to jail for orchestrating the housing collapse, including the enablers in banking?

---

I'm pleased to see the NY Times is coming up to speed on the HELOC (*home equity line of credit) crisis which we've been talking about for a few months.  MSM emergence coming.

 

Hide the Bummer Number Department

Getting virtually no play in MSM is the report late last week from the Labor Department that employers took 1672 mass layoffs in February with 177,374 people hitting the bricks - the highest since the Katrina/Rita layoffs in 2005.  Check it out:

 

 

What makes this number even more meaningful?   What is the shortest month of the year?

---

Neat spin job, though, as after nearly a year of looking like a non-event kind of report, the MSM dozed off on this one.

 

Sudden Bush Trip

Seems like Russia didn't like Condi's latest pronouncements.  Now, GW is heading to Russia.  On the agenda?  Iran maybe?  Kosovo? 

---

Lots of other stories about, but most of it is in the bread and circuses department - meaningless but urgent sounding stuff...more tomorrow...

 

--- snip & save section ---

 

Coping: Bankers Hoarding Cash

Can't get a loan lately?  Don't feel like the Lone Ranger.  A really knowledgeable reader sends this:

"Here’s one of the best dialogues I’ve read recently on asset depreciation…Stevens seems to have his ‘finger on the pulse’, so to speak…

“The traditional cure to a financial crisis–to restart the debt accumulation engine–can’t work this time, because in America today, there’s no-one left to lend to (there is no sub-subprime borrower), and no lender willing to risk its capital in yet more debt.”

This is what I’m seeing: while the FED dumps bucks into banks, they in no way match the underlying liabilities incurred; this seems to be underscored by the fact that loans of ANY KIND are near impossible to get; doesn’t do much good for banks to have ‘liquidity’ if they ain’t extending that ‘liquidity’ [which, unless I’m mistaken, was the ‘reason’ given for this criminal ‘bail out’]. Check it out…can we REALLY expect ‘wage inflation’ this time around? Personally, I think not.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=31714#post31714 "

Food Storage

Famine on the way?  Try this:

"Hi George,

Here's a little thing I discovered about storing dry foods -- flour, pasta, rice, beans, cereal, grains, etc. I find that many folks down here in hot weather complain about "getting bugs" in their dry foods, most notably flour weevils and beetles. I believe the real truth of this is not that the bugs get into the foods, but that their eggs are in the packaging. Here's how I reached that conclusion: We used to store beans, rice and pasta in rubber-sealed glass containers. They would still acquire the bugs, so that pointed towards them not 'getting' into the foods. We didn't have this problem when we lived in the U.S. --- I think primarily due to cooler temperatures, which were not conducive toward hatching the eggs.

We've been stocking up on foods, both as a hedge against an uncertain future, and as a part of our regular hurricane season preparations. We're supplied by a weekly barge, and normal weather patterns can cancel the barge for weeks at a time. It's a tenuous supply line at best. I've found something that I think might be useful to folks also stocking up, particularly those in warm climates. Whenever I buy these things, I then put them in a zip lock bag, and leave them in the freezer for two days. I believe this kills the bug eggs, as since we've been doing this -- about a year -- no critters have appeared in our foods. A tightly-packed 5-gallon container of dried foods will keep the two of us fed for a few months. Not eating large, you understand, but fed. Now, with dried foods, water becomes critical, and as a survival food, the water it takes to reconstitute the foods may be a drain on resources, which is why I always stress a vast amount of water in folks' preparations. If I consider a situation where water resources were suddenly cut off, it's very difficult for me to imagine too much water packed away.

Hope the knee is feeling better. I see you got some very good advice, and I'll sock that info away also. "

Good info to keep, I hope.  Never know when you'll kneed it...

 

Thirsty?

Solar water distiller plans here.

 

Send snip & save ideas and comments to george@ure.net

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch:  Laid Up Learnings

I'm one of those folks who is cursed with a brain that sometimes won't be turned off.  So, despite the swollen knee, I managed to keep busy by among other thing, listening to ham radio conversations.

 

one of them was pretty interesting.  Seems one of the local Texas good ol' boys has been working feverishly over the winter restoring a boat which he plans to launch on one of the local reservoirs this weekend.  That naturally brought the conversation around to what would be the right method of christening the vessel.

 

This being Texas and all, one of the suggestions was a bottle of Jack would do fine.  But, after some discussion about tradition, a bottle of champagne was considered.

 

The old boy who'd done all the work on this now gussied-up boat then wondered aloud to the 75-meter band multitude if such a bottle wouldn't damage some of his handiwork on the boat.  Boats were designed for floating, not for breaking bottles.

 

After a round of further deliberations, it was decided that the boat could be christened by breaking the bottle over the trailer hitch.

 

What kind of champagne?  Which got around to a discussion of cost.  Things like the ratio of champagne cost to boat displacement, for example.  A bottle of champagne is less than budget dust if you're launching a nuclear submarine; things like that.

 

As I dozed off, I'm pleased to report this boat will be christened with a single bottle of Budweiser, and plans made to ensure the glass is all picked up..

---

It was all very reassuring.  While banksters may hang (in balance) over the fate of the dollar, and the wars continue, and the other news/bummers of the day percolate, there are still plenty of level-headed Americans who take time to ponder the things we can change in this life: A boat, some bass, and Bud are all things we can do something about.

 

 


Wednesday March 26, 2008

A Reader Note: My 'blown out/gone to gout' knee still has me hobbling, however, I found some unused pain pills in the medicine chest and the knee is significantly better.  The rest of my body is none too pleased about the current bout of purity, however.  Notwithstanding, new Peoplenomics subscribers will have to wait another day for account access. 

 

Melts: Ups and Downs

One can't help but wonder what the stabilization period for precious metals will be.  "The what?  You take one too many pain pills there, Ure?"

 

Oh no, not me... (got some more. though?)  What I'm mumbling about is the recent run-up in  the POG (*price of gold) and the subsequent price gyrations while a new equilibrium between price and demand is established.

 

While the recent price spike in gold over $1,000 may have seemed like a momentary affair, I'm inclined to believe that higher prices are yet to come. 

 

High prices of the 'yellow dog' have indeed brought about some dishoarding in the form of people selling off jewelry and so on.

 

On the other hand,  a quick trip over to www.kitco.com reveals that the current price (up $5 for the day when I checked) is still up more than 1/2 of 1% for the past month, and it's up 42.31% from a year ago.

 

Elaine asked me about whether we should maybe sell some gold and silver and I explained why I'm holding out for higher prices which I personally think (*this is NOT investment advice) are still ahead.  - I promised to give it some serious thought, though, because my commodity portfolio gains which had been north of 1000% annualized, has recently come down to a mere 350% annualized.  Yup, she's right asking for a review of things.

----

My first stop was Kitco's historical price charts page and directed her to the 1975 to 2008 gold chart in particular.  This one is of interest because it shows the London afternoon price and in 1980 it looks like $755 to $760 but if you zoom in on 1980 by itself, you can see the blow-off high was actually over $850.

 

Following the same methodology, the multi-year (1985-2008) silver chart shows a 1987 high of what looks like $9.50, but when you zoom in on the single year chart you will see $11 silver in late April of that year.

 

"The key thing to think about," I explained, "is that none of these figures takes inflation into account.  So, if we want to see where a similar blow-off peak would be in 2008 dollars, we can click on the Minneapolis Fed's inflation calculator and run out where prices could be."

 

I plugged in $850 in 1980 and came up with $2,224.03 for a similar gold spike while silver came in at $20.88...close to its recent highs.

 

It could be argued that since we have already touched the inflation corrected high for silver, that now might be a time to book some profits and chill out for a while.  If I was managing an account in the "widows and orphans" department that might be a reasonable thing to do.  But, I'm not.  I'm playing for maximal gains, not minimal risk.

 

Which then gets us around to the Gold/Silver ratio.  Historically, this has run about 16 to 1.  In other words, one ounce of gold would cost 16 ounces of silver.  In the 1987 silver peak, the price of gold was about $475 an ounce, which would put the ratio at 43 to 1.  More recently, like a couple of weeks back, we saw gold was around $1022 (or there about) while silver was just under $21.

 

That means the recent ratio was  48.6667 to 1 - rounded that's about 48.7 -ounces of silver to an ounce of gold..

---

That left me scratching my head thinking "Hey, maybe she's right..." until I remembered that we have other metrics that can help spot when gold is at a price extreme.  One of these is the oil/gold price ratio.  As one post (*not surprisingly, on a Ron Paul web site) noted [below the chart]:  There may be a gold buying opportunity for gold when it is priced at less than 10-barrels of oil per ounce.  And, it may be time to sell gold when oil is priced at 20 barrels (or more) per ounce.

---

This sends me scampering (hobbling is more like it!) over to check on this morning's price of oil:  "Oil nears $102 as dollar weakens" reports the A.P.

---

Armed with this new information I penciled out this morning's relationship between $950 gold and $102 oil - that's a 9.3 to 1 ratio.  So, based on this alone, I would expect one of the following to be true:

  • Oil is saying "Buy Gold!"  (or)

  • Gold is saying "Sell Oil!

 

Which one is right?  Well, if gold is fairly priced around $100, then gold would be a buy in here and I shouldn't sell gold until gold is over $2,000.  Based on an extreme of  a silver: gold ratio of 50:1, that infers selling silver at $40.

---

On the other hand, if we see a collapse in the price of oil, to say $50 a barrel, $1,000 gold would be a sell.  But, I'm not holding my breath.

 

Globally, oil demand has continued to grow in new markets like China and India.  New in the sense than their domestic us is climbing faster than the US.  India refiners in February were up 5.8% year-on-year, for example.

 

If there's even a glimmer of truth to the Peak Oil scenarios, which doesn't mean running out, it just means that new production is being outpaced by demand, then there's no reason to expect a 50% reduction in oil prices which is something I'd be looking for in order to turn gold into a "sell!".

 

Parenthetically, Russia and Egypt has signed a near power deal. So if 'close to the source' countries like Iran and Egypt are putting in nuclear operations, it suggests that Russia and Egypt/Russia and Iran are not expecting cheap oil to be around forever.  Long term, oil going up from here seems like s slam dunk.

 

To reduce it to an outlook, I'd estimate that as long as the US dollar doesn't perform a Lazarus type miracle, which seems an impossibility given how we've screwed over the rest of the world financially, I'd put the odds of $2,000 gold much higher than $50 oil.  That, in turn, leads to my further expectation that even at 50:1 silver to gold, we have $40 silver ahead.

---

There was a headline last week in the Ottawa Citizen about how a US firm had laid claim to a vast part of the Arctic where there are estimated to be as many as 400-billion barrels of oil.

 

[*Reader note: 400-billion barrels of oil sounds like a lot until you pencil in 88 million barrels a day of global demand. Then it becomes apparent that this is only 12.45 years of supply - and we haven't even tapped it yet.  If you have kids, I hope they will live long enough to see the end of cheap energy, but global food shortages 9mass famines)  and the collapse of international commerce that will come as oil availability declines, argue they won't.]

 

Will that push us toward $50/barrel oil?  Or, what about the reported Gulf of Mexico sites, or the new fields off Brazil?  Won't those help?  Help?  Of course.  End of the problem?  No.

 

But don't take my pessimistic view as gospel - I'd steer you to oil financier Matthew Simmons latest presentation "Peak Oil's Investment Implications".

 

The very first slide he puts up notes that oil spiked to 103.76 in April of 1980.  Going back to our inflation calculator (courtesy of the Minneapolis Fed) we can see what a similar spike would infer denominated in 2008 dollars: $271.49.  However, that doesn't take into account the decline of the dollar (continuing this morning) that has continued unabated.

 

That implies gold being priced at $2,714.49 per ounce in a 10:1 world, making gold a sell in a 20:1 world at $5,400 +.

---

Can this kind of world happen?  Simmons argues that it already is.  Motorists in the UK last fall were paying the equivalent of $9.00/gallon for gasoline last fall which pencils to $378 a barrel for oil.  One of his slides shows that oil is priced at one third what a barrel of Budweiser costs:  Oil this morning is at $102 a barrel while Simmons pencils Bud to be $372.96 per barrel.

 

With a Western war with Iran nearing execution (*if I read behind the headlines correctly), there's no reason not to expect oil to spike to levels it saw during the 1981 Iran-Iraq war - well over $250 a barrel.

 

At those kind of prices, the US would have no policy options left except to say "We have a strong dollar policy" out of one side of our mouth, while on the other, going into 10-20% inflation; again it argues for metals.

---

While I'm sitting around waiting for what I expect will be a melt-up in oil prices, with a concurrent melt-up of metals prices, try to remember that gold and silver has shown much more resilience that stocks.  True, the price of gold went from about $1,010 down to $922, a drop of 8.7%, I figure its a much less dramatic decline than the Dow, which dropped from 14,093 in mid October (on a weekly basis) to 11,873.7 a couple of weeks ago - that's a 14.7% drop.

 

I had a couple of emails this morning asking "Should I sell my gold or silver?"  So here's my answer to paste up on the wall someplace to save you from sending me email:

  • I don't give investment advice.

  • I am not planning to sell gold or silver until we get either:

    • $50 barrel oil OR

    • $2,250 gold AND $45 silver.

 

Based on all the numbers I can see, we're either going to see a melt-up in metals, or a melt-down in oil.  Either way, it should be interesting to watch.

 

Melts & Memes: Global Coastal Event

Seems to be getting underway with the big ice shelf disintegration over the past month in the Antarctic.  This collapse by itself shouldn't impact, as it was already floating and displacement and all that means no change.  But:

 

Something you may note have considered:  Damming of rivers may be causing the real impact of rising waters to be masked said one recent report.

 

 

Half Trillion? One Trillion?

The headline this morning is that "Wall Street may face $460 billion in Losses, Goldman says."

---

I figure the size of the liar's paper/bailout debacle will be like the cost of the Iraq War - it will keep leaking out over time.  We're nowhere near the end of it and the price tag is nearing 1/2 trillion.  So, how long till the other shoe drops?

 

"Hoarding by banks stokes fear over crisis" says the Financial Times.  You hear that other shoe yet?

 

Rocket Surgeons Department: Social Security Notes

OK,  we've known about this for how long?  Hank "Paulson: Social Security fix needed"

 

The Runs: Social What?

Similarly, seems like the presidential wannabes are too worried about sniper fire in Bosnia that didn't happen to worry about piddly issues like Social Security and Medicare.

 

Bread and circuses!

 

Ratings & Runs

"Behind in the Ratings, CBS News Hopes for Help from a Debate."

 

Dear CBS: Might work if you could find better candidates...

 

Banksters and Channelers

'Banks Balk at Paying for Clear Channel Deal" headlines the NYT.  Sounds like lawyer time is nearing...

 

Cool Headlines Dept

"Icy mood grips Kosovo ski resort."  Hmmm... NSS  Our kind of writing style.

 

---

BTW: Can someone please tell me what the Decider's a strong dollar policy means when we're crashing to new lows relative to everything but the Bugravial zork?

 

(*Bugravia was a mythical country used by late radio greats Coyle & Sharpe, famous for their tape recordings of man on the street absurdities.  - check the .MP3 snips...)

 

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Inflation and BBQ's

Ah, that time of the year - where BBQ comes into the conversation.  Don't care whether it's a Veggie Burger or a 2" T-Bone, BBQ is my favorite way to cook.  Maybe it's some regression to the 'caveman' DNA.  Anyway, inflation is hitting - as noted by a reader who sent this posting.

 

Sun Spot Planning

Not that you can do much about it, but there are already starting to be some notes about how the current sun spot cycle could be a 'baddie'.

 

Camping In Follow-Ups: Indonesia Report &Stocking Up Ideas

Our former Houston Bureau which is now located in the hills of the Indonesian hinterlands, sent in what the Camping In experiment (Peoplenomics report) is like outside the USA:

Camping-In Day: Third World Edition

In the spirit of solidarity, the Southeast Asia Bureau joined in the UrbanSurvival Camping-In Day.  To be fair, everyday in Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Borneo, is Camping-In Day, but perhaps some experiences here might be helpful.

 

Power

Losing power here is an almost daily experience, with blackouts that last anywhere from 10 minutes to half a day.  Roughly half the houses in my neighborhood have generators and at least in this house we have several battery-operated lights that are kept charging at all times.  When the power goes out, these lights automatically kick in.  The generator can be pulled out on the upper deck and plugged into any wall socket, which will power everything on that circuit.  In my case, the entire upstairs, where the living quarters are, can be powered up in a matter of minutes.

We rarely use the generator, but for Camping-In Day, we tested the system and it worked flawlessly.  Since the power was out for a good part of yesterday, we went ahead and tested it on a second circuit and again had no problems.

 

Water

Losing water is an almost daily occurrence, as well.  Though hooked to the city supply most of the time, this house also shares a well with four other houses that pre-dates municipal service.  The well is feeds a 100-gallon reservoir with both electric and manual pumps.  Simply turning two stopcocks allows the tank to be filled and water to flow to the master bathroom and kitchen sink.  The downstairs bathroom has a small cistern in the corner holding about 50 gallons of water, and which is kept full daily.  It is used to manually flush the squat-toilet and can be used for bathing, as well.  Since none of this water is potable and it used only for cooking and bathing even in the best of times, drinking water is a different problem.

Drinking water is kept in 10 5-gallon carboys stored by the dispenser.  As back-up, I brought with me a Big Berkey and a Sport Berkey water filter with about a year’s supply of back-up filters.  Furthermore, a number of small shops within walking distance have reverse osmosis/carbon filtering systems that can be run on generators.  These are used to fill the household drinking water on a regular basis.

There is no hot water supply, and none is needed.  The water for bathing is fairly tepid just from solar heating, and if anything else is needed, it is boiled.

 

Food

This house, like most in country, has an indoor and outdoor kitchen.  The outdoor kitchen is used for butchering and preparing meals that create a lot of smoke or smell (just about everything).  The indoor kitchen is used for preparing soups, sauces, small dishes, and the like.

 

Almost all food here is fresh and there is little prepackaged food anywhere in my diet.  Vegetables are purchased every other day or so and meats are raised locally and butchered the day they are used.  Every other house in the neighborhood has chickens, a couple just over the hill raise goats, and the Menadoans in this house raise dogs (when in Rome..).  If all else fails, mangoes, bananas, papaya and hair fruit grow in copious amounts all over the place.  One of my long-term projects is to clean up the upper rear deck, which has a terraced garden going up the side of the cliff, and for which I brought a supply of non-hybrid seed.  The growing season here is year-round.

 

All food is prepared using kerosene stoves.  The kerosene is delivered daily by street vendor, or can be purchased by the liter at any number of small shops within two blocks of here.  A small reserve is kept on-hand for emergencies.  In the direst of times, the outdoor kitchen has a wood burning stove, but there is no store of wood, which is something that will be remedied based on Camping-In Day (although the entire upper and lower rear decks could be burned, if needed).

 

Creature Comforts

Only three rooms in the entire house are air conditioned, two of which can be powered on one circuit with the generator.  This would only be necessary in a medical emergency, because the house is fairly efficient on its own.  The walls are brick and mortar covered with plaster, and all the windows and doors have transoms which allow the near constant sea breeze through the house.  The house maintains a fairly constant temperature all day, year-round.

 

All laundry is done by hand using tubs in the bathrooms.  There is no dishwasher or microwave, so there is no need to be concerned with how to get around these conveniences.  The refrigerators are very small and are primarily used for chilling drinks and keeping left-overs over night.  All food stays on the table all day until it is completely eaten, the scraps are fed to the dogs (or chickens or goats), and well…

There is a distinct advantage to living in a part of the world where preparedness is part of daily life.  Having so many conveniences in the States has created an atmosphere where laws prohibit the raising of small food stock in cities, PETA keeps animals like dogs off the menu and people have so sanitized their lives that if any part of the system fails they are completely helpless.

 

The Camping-In Project did bring one glaring deficiency to my attention, though.  I have got to get a supply of wood.

A US reader also offered some experience and shopping ideas:

GEORGE,

Here are a few suggestions you might want to give your readers on products we found to be valuable to replace our comfort without if the system goes down.

(have been experimenting with this life for over 10 years now and have weeded out the bad from the good.)                                

1.  FIRE BALL STARTERS:

 

 (great to start fires and cook with)

 

 

STORED THESE IN LARGE TRASH BAGS AND IN 60 GALLON

TRASH CONTAINERS.

 

GREAT FOR STARTING THE STOVE ON A COLD DAY QUICKLY.

 

(ONLY TAKES SEVERAL TO START)

 

 

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=405492

 

The quick, easy, safe way to start a fire in wood stoves, fireplaces, grills, at campsites... and a must-have for your back country survival kit.

Non-toxic, environmentally-safe Lightning Nuggets® are a blend of highly resinous, pulverized pitch wood sawdust and food-grade paraffin wax. And one is all you need! Pine-scented Fire starters are guaranteed to light easily and burn strong for 15 minutes.

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=405492#

 

go to:

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=405492

 

*************************************************************

 

2.  THE BERKEY LIGHT GRAVITY FEED FILTER

 

WE USE THE BERKEY LIGHT: (without base)

 

Removes pathogenic bacteria and cysts including E. coli, Giardia, and Cryptosporidum,

chemicals including herbicides and pesticides to below detectable levels while still

reducing by more than 855 heavy metals like lead, mercury, aluminum,

chromium, and copper.

Also controls taste and odors.

 

(found that the Big Berkey would not reduce E Coli, or Giardia,)

The Berkey Light is wonderful  to travel with. weights  only 5lbs.)

 

If you did not have clean water you can at least fill from well, creek and

have drinkable water.

 

(you could have poured your bad stored water through and not lost

  it.)

 

http://www.lehmans.com/shopping/product/detailmain.jsp?itemID=148&itemType=PRODUCT&iMainCat=681&iSubCat=952&iProductID=148

 

 

Water Filters" src="http://www.lehmans.com/images/us/shire/85415.f.jpg" border=0>

 

 

Pour "raw" water in top chamber and draw off sparkling-clean water from lower chamber. Special ceramic elements contain carbon media to remove bacteria and reduce chemicals, rust, sediment, and bad tastes/odors.

 

************************************************************

 

ALASKA STOVE & ACCESSORIES:

 

GREAT FOR OUT DOOR KITCHEN:

 

WE USE THIS FOR CANNING ALSO , HAS ATTACHED WATER HOLDER

TO HEAT WATER WHILE YOU HAVE THE STOVE GOING.

 

If you are a welder than making one would be better because you

could use a barrel and make your water side tank larger.

 

 

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=406816

 

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=406816#

 

 

 

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=406816#

 

Meticulously handmade of steel for dependable, long-term performance. Unlike others, this baby has a dial-adjustable air intake to deliver precise control of oxygen flow to the flame, maintaining a constant temperature. Plus, it stores conveniently. Add the Stove Accessories below for a customized unit to fit your needs.

Features:

  • Heats areas from 12-16'

  • Big output, yet small in size at 12 x 24 x 20"h.

  • Weighs 18 lbs.

  • Storage size is 12 x 12 x 24"

  • Made with 22-gauge, cold-rolled steel. Latchable hinged door

  • 5" stove pipe hole (extensions below

********************************************************

WATER STORAGE:

 

Recommend  2 large 1500 gal water tanks, one for

house, and one for animals , garden, and barn.

 

( I am thinking about buying another one to

  put in my pasture where the orchard is. )

 

( build a platform in a V shape or small shed to give

 your animals some shelter during bad weather to

 catch the extra water.)

 

 This would be great for your coffee trees as

  you will not have to haul water to feed them when

 dry and use the drip method to save moisture loss.

 

 

Bought a black one and a green one.

 

The black one always gets the water warmer from the

sun and we built a stone wall stand 10' high to

hold the tanks, ( easier to clean and sturdier, can

use block if not a stone mason)

then built  an outdoor shower and shower stall

next  to it to  use on the warmer days and in the summer.

 

These water tanks do not collect any algae.

 

 Then put the rain barrels around at certain areas

to catch the excess for gardening and just extra

as not to waste any rain water when it comes.

 

By the way drip irrigation helps you conserve water

for plants, garden, fruit trees.  Not expensive to

set up.

 

I use 1 teaspoon  silver per gallon of water.

I even put in my rain barrels.

(great for animals to drink also)

 

Have kept water up to 2 years and no after taste.

 

( bought shiver maker) but anyone can buy and taste a lot

better than bleach. Silver is great for immune system.

Did not notice any after taste or difference cooking with it

either.

 

  

PORTABLE HOT WATER HEATER

 

Have set this up in our bathrooms and turn off

when not in use.

 

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=381443

 

       $ 119.97

 

 

Portable Tank less Water Heater.

Click image to enlarge...

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=381443#
No More dirty feet! Great
for camping and cabin use.

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=381443#
Attachment included
for LP tank

 

Hot water, instantly and exactly where you need it! Great for camping, cabin use, washing boats and cars, etc. Switch this Heater on and an intense flame instantly heats the water as it passes through. There's no reservoir to deplete like at home, as long as you feed water in, HOT water is coming out!

  • Battery ignition starts flame ONLY when water is running, no overheating!

  • Delivers 1 gallon of hot water per minute

  • Adjustable water temp from 80 to 150F degrees

  • Adapter attaches to any standard garden hose style nozzle

  • Shower nozzle with on / off control

  • Includes hose and regulator for attaching to standard LP tank

  • For outdoor use only

  • Folding handles

  • Uses 2 D batteries for ignition (not included)

  • 1 standard LP tank is good for approx. 18 hrs. of continuous use, depending on set temperature

  • 12 x 15 x 4", 10 lbs.

********************************************************

THE COBB COOKER:

 

 

My best find I think:

 

(I use 4 fire ball starters, or 4 charcoal ready starter

briskets.) Saves matches also.

 

Have a large supply of charcoal for other source

of heat and cooking.

 

Have used on back porch, truck gate, and made a stand

for it to always be ready. Bakes great pies, bread.

 

http://www.garrettwade.com/jump.jsp?lGen=detail&itemID=110972&itemType=PRODUCT&iProductID=110972

 

 

 

Here is some background info on this great product:

 

The origin of the Cobb was in South Africa where it was intended to provide a safe cooking system for people in rural areas without electricity - and a greatly reduced danger of out-of-control fires. (It originally worked using dry corn cobs - hence its name.) And it was voted one of the best inventions of 2001 by Time Magazine.

 

Now redesigned to use only 8-10 standard charcoal briquette, it will BBQ, roast, smoke, fry, grill, or bake for up to three hours. And its design permits double-duty, for example, roasting vegetables in the interior "moat" while grilling meat or seafood on the grilling surface.

While its internal temperature gets hot (up to 500 degrees Fahrenheit), its exterior base remains completely cool to the touch, so among other virtues, it can be used in many locations that a traditional grill cannot - such as, on a plastic table, a car or truck hood, a boat deck, camping, RVing, or on the beach. In its standard Carry Bag, it weighs only 9 lbs and is only 12" in diameter and 13" high.

It's very easy to use and is completely dishwasher safe.

The Premier Cobb Grill includes the fire grid, dome top, non-stick grilling surface, stainless steel base, Carry Bag and Cobb Cookbook with full instructions. All you need to add are some charcoal briquettes and some pieces of fire starter available locally. Add the optional Frying Pan Skillet, the Frying Wok, the Roasting Rack and the Grooved Griddle to increase its versatility.

Each Premier Cobb will come with the optional Roasting Rack absolutely Free (an extra $16 value).

The Cobb Grill is our winner.

***********************************************************

LAUNDRY :

 

LAUNDRY DAY WITHOUT ELECTRICTY.:

 

Since you did not mention if Elaine did any laundry during

the weekend figured you did not get to that one yet.

 

We use double plastic tubs and just mounted a ringer for ease,

but the whole system can be found at: Lehman's

( our laundry room is also next to the Black water

  tank)

 

Ours is there when the electricity goes out or stays off

if the system goes down.

 

The ringer will come in handy doing those large items

like sheets and bedspreads.

 

Tip: we bought some silk sacks :  the ones you buy

 when you are traveling to other countries and using

hotels that may not wash their sheets every day....

 

these make great sheets to sleep between and washes by hand

easily and dries fast due to being 100% silk. 

They come in twin and doubles.

 

If you buy from others be careful as they have some

that are not 100% silk.

 

http://www.magellans.com/store/Gift_Ideas___Gifts_under__100SC546?Args=&refchan=Search

 

Sleeping on these large sheets and comforters are a pain

to wash by hand when you have no electricity.

 

Need to make wash day less drudgery especially if the ladies are

not used to doing laundry by hand.

 

( also have plenty of close pins handy)

  Always have a stainless steel washboard also for those

   little jobs.)

 

Wringer washers can save money on water, heating and electricity costs.

A typical washing machine uses 40 gallons of water to fill the tub for one load.

It also uses another 40 gallons to rinse the water. In comparison, a wringer washer

 can use that save 40 gallons of water to wash three loads. rinsing is the same.

 So three loads of wash would use a total of 80 gallons of water, as compared to

 240 gallons of water for three washes in a typical washing machine.

Wringer washers use less energy, too. A wringer washer can be set to run for as long as you like. For normal clothing, wash for 9 to 15 minutes. Heavily soiled loads can go a bit longer. Compare that for 30-45 minutes with a typical washer from start to finish, depending on the settings. You can find wringer washers that run on propane gas (like the model my friend uses) or wringer washers that run on manual power using a crank. The crank is a lot of work, but if you are interested in not using any purchased energy, it is a good choice.

Wringer washers can use less laundry detergent, too. The increased agitation of the wringer washer gets everything very clean with just a bit of detergent.

I am sure I have not covered all but hopes this helps your readers think about those everyday chores we take for granted with electricity.

Boy, did you make me think about the coffee. I am way short on my stash on that one.

Gout Cures

Two readers sent good gout cures to consider:

"I was sorry to hear of your injury, I do hope it heals quickly.

You mentioned complications from gout… I had two attacks of gout about 18 months ago, both quite severe. I am fifty years of age, and gout attacked me in the “big toe” joint of my left foot… Typical, right?

I’m sure you’ve heard of apple cider vinegar touted as a beneficial tonic especially for joint health. For the past year whenever I feel gout beginning I drink cider vinegar, about three teaspoon-full in water, and I have no more gout.

Also, before I came to rely on vinegar I learned that if you have an acute attack you may mix several spoonfuls of baking soda in water to quickly reduce the blood uric acid level for near-immediate relief. Do this only about three times per day though, and for a limited time, as it naturally elevates the sodium level quite a bit.

FWIW, I eat only vegetables with a little fish, no red meat. Of course, adequate water intake daily is important, as I’m certain you know."

And a fellow ham sent this:

Sorry to hear you are battling with a bout of gout! I'm a youngin' but unfortunately genetics have left me with a disposition to randomly have a gout attack in the midst of an international business trip or a long weekend of nice weather at home.

I, too, use a mostly vegetarian diet, fluids, celery, and cherry extract (black cherry) to help fight it off... but lately that's not gotten read of the knee attacks that keep me off my feet every 3-4 months.

A friend of mine who also suffers recommended I try Puricil. You might want to research it and see if it works for you. I personally take 4 a day at early onset of Gout and within a few days, the uric acids have been neutralized and I'm back to normal 100%. The diet method sometimes takes a week or two to do what Puricil does in 2-3 days. I am normally very skeptical of herbal remedies and things not bearing the all-so-famous "FDA approval," but this is the first time I have tried a product of this nature with success.

Hate to sound like a salesman for the product, but it works. ...for me.

Send snip & save ideas - anything that you find either really interesting that's been overlooked by the MSM or things you find help you cope with life, to george@ure.net

 

--- end snip and save---

 


Tuesday March 24, 2008

Timing the Next War

I've mentioned to you several times that the predictive linguistics from HalfPastHuman.com and a modest awareness of recent travel arrangements of America's WH leadership, seem to support the idea that we're about to have an outburst of fighting in the Middle East.

 

Some reports go to the idea of a sneak attack in the early morning hours of April 4th, while the Syrian build-up of three divisions near the Lebanese border are generating region tensions.

 

Vice president Dick Cheney has gone on record saying that Syria and Iran are sabotaging the ME peace process, and I expect Condi Rice's most recent trip to Moscow was to give them a 'heads up' that their nuclear investments in Iran might be at peril should Iran not change its nuclear policies. Which seems unlikely.

 

The tactical problem faced by the neocons and other war promoters, would seem to be finding a decent date for an attack.  If the West moves prior to the April 25th elections,  then it could be argued that the West is 'anti-democratic'.  On the other side, the neocon drumbeat is that the longer a hypothetical attack is held back, the more advanced the Iranian nuclear program will become.

 

Perhaps one of the best indicators for the timing of the Next War will be commodity prices. When I see gold and silver going back to their recent highs and wheat setting new records, then I'd venture about two weeks from there.

 

Getting Hungry

The UN's World Food Program is making an emergency appeal for funding as food costs rise.

 

While we've been watching the price of wheat soar (although it has pulled back recently) there is still a lot of worry about rice becoming very short in supply worldwide.

 

Floods Don't Help

With the world running perilously short of food, it will still be late this week or early next, before the full impact of floods developing in the nation's heartland can be assessed.

 

Momentary Euphoria

The AP headline this morning that "World markets Rally on Easing US Worries" goes a long ways toward setting events in place to fulfill my expectations of a spring into summer rally, which will be followed by a slow decline by markets over September and then a much larger decline in the, seemingly driven by events beyond markets.

 

At the same time, oil is coming back to near $100 and the dollar has rallied a bit.

 

Net Censorship

A good BBC article on the future of the 'net:  Bottom line is that corpgov of all stripes is trying to control what people can read or do on the internet.  Is there such a thing as too much freedom?  Seems so if you're defending the 'old paradigm'.

 

Speaking of things 'netly' - Google is backing the idea of 'white space' for wifi with the recent turning loose of some spectrum by the FCC.

 

Has Housing Bottomed?

Personally, I don't think so.  But skip my outlook, just focus on the Housing Price Index due out in a few minutes.

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Water Harvesting on Cayman Brac

We started yesterday with a few remarks in the coping section about the idea of rainwater harvesting.  Wouldn't you know it:  a lot of feedback.  Some from a small island some 85-miles from Grand Cayman - Cayman Brac:

"First of all, I have to thank you profoundly for all the snippets of information I've gleaned from your site over the last year. "George says" is a somewhat common saying my Bride pass back and forth. My best buddy from Northern Florida and I are both "preppers" and he and I watch your site regularly. We sometimes wonder if our emails pepper the memes. ;o)

I was reading with interest your features lately on saving and processing water. Here, in the Cayman Islands, Cayman Brac in particular, most of us have cisterns -- concrete bunkers, for the most part - buried underground that are fed by the gutters that collect rainwater from our roofs. We also have fresh water wells on most of this rock we call home.

I think it's somewhat important for those who plan to collect water as potable water to be aware of a couple of things:

1 - asphalt shingles WILL exude oils into the water. It's commonly said here that the oils float on the surface of the water, and the water is drawn from the foot valve at the bottom of the cistern, but I can tell you that a certain amount of mixing occurs in the zone between the surface and the bottom.

2. - Metal roofs, except those that are epoxy-coated, will impart certain VOCs and other contaminants into the water that runs off them.

We have an old-fashioned corrugated metal roof, but I've painted it with an elastomeric paint, and test results show it to be inert once dried.

I've enclosed a drawing I did in "Paint", just a little ditty to show how I've made our automatic roof-washing process from 3" PVC. How this works is that I've made a computation based upon 1/8-inch of water over our whole roof. In this instance, that volume of water translates to 16 feet of 3" PVC piping. That is the bottom pipe in the drawing. What happens is that the first bit of rain washes the dirt and oxidized materials off the roof and into the bottom pipe. Once it is full, the remainder travels through the upper pipe to the cistern for holding. The bottom pipe has a 1/16" pinhole in it, so that the water inside it will slowly leak out, and it is bedded in rock to keep it from getting clogged up. The reason for this is that if it rains in the morning, and then again in the afternoon, I'll presume that the roof is already fairly well cleaned and won't require wasting that 16-feet of water again. If, on the other hand, it rains today and then again two days later, the water in the bottom pipe has drained out, and is ready to accept more. Hope that makes sense.

I recommend painting the exterior of PVC piping. Latex paint -- keeps the UV from breaking down the piping. Also, water will flow with a 1" differential in elevation, so there is never a need to angle the piping from the roof to the catchment -- much safer for the piping and most esthetically pleasing to take it from the gutter underground to the catchment.

We treat the water with chlorine and keep it at about .3 PPM. Water going into the house goes through a carbon filter and is pumped via a solar pump.

Hope this is useful to you; If not, I'll still be seeing you every day. Cheers mate. Bride says "hey!"...

To add Chlorine?  Once you've got a rainwater system is bleach the best thing, or something else?

"I'm just now starting my own rainwater barrels myself. But no bleach in the barrel! Try using that colloidal silver instead. Plenty of web pages out there on how to make your own generator from an old AC adapter, two silver rounds, and a fish tank bubbler. You might just make the silver water "in place" at the barrel themselves with a little woodwork! Imagine 60 gallons of antibacterial, antiviral silver water... "

We I have to admit I don't know if colloidal silver (CS) would inhibit algae growth.  Anyone have the science on this point?

---

Send snip and save notes to: george@ure.net

 

--- end snip and save section---

 


Monday March 24, 2008

Number Munching Monday

Numbers, numbers, numbers; where to begin?  Well, I could say "Gee, here's something surprising: "Bank of America is staring at a $6.5 billion dollar loan loss says an analyst..."  The correct reaction is likely something along the lines of "Is that all?  Haven't these guys learned anything about fleecing the public from their peers?"

 

Hmmm...Good point.  Well, how about this one, then:  At nearly $43 billion in losses "Citigroup's 2008 losses equal that of all Indian banks..."  I can hear your thinking now: "Yeah, that's more like it..."

 

Then there's the report that JP Morgan will raise it's offer for Bear Stearns to as much as $10 in order to quiet down the ticked off shareholders who screamed about the $2 offer.

---

The really astute financial observer would notice, along in here somewhere, that the newest game by the central banksters is to buy up (*by holding as 'security') bad loans to get a little control their multiple (naughty) children banks.  In fact, I'd argue with the Fed taking (*pretty much anything) as loan security, and this morning's report that the "Bank of England may join securities buy-up plan" that what's going on at a global scale is one of the most important precursors to one-world government.  A single universal bank.  Seems to me that's what's coming, although by fits and starts.

---

I may still be suffering the consequences of too much spaghetti and gin last night, and a rematch with the spaghetti for breakfast, but it sort of makes sense.  In order for a New World Order to really own everything on earth, all these disparate little banks around are a terrible nuisance.  Let's just buy them up, setting off a portfolio-saving inflation along the way, and centralize control!  Hey - makes perfect sense, right?  We'll make an almost unnavigable set of rules, force everyone to clear through a clearinghouse the same way, and then gradually let the markets forces drive everything into the hands of the few (the rich).

---

OK, so it may turn out to be a little slower than One Worlders would like, but nevertheless, the concentration/consolidation (*and shotgun marriages orchestrated by regulators) seem to be the fad of the year in financial circles.  About all we can do is watch.

 

I've made a note to myself to find a small, local bank which doesn't clear through a mega-bank if such things possibly exist anymore:  I haven't had much luck finding an "Association of small, independent, community oriented, risk-averse, reasonable FDIC or FSLIC insured banks." 

 

Naturally, if there were such a thing, they wouldn't be very big because they would have not given the millions in campaign contributions to the presidential and CONgressional wannabes - which gets me to the question "How can these failing banks still give money to political hacks over the past few years? Payoff money in advance?"  Another one of my reasonable enough questions which won't be asked by LameStreamMedia...

 

Come to think of it, maybe I shouldn't open a new bank account.  Maybe I should just open a bank...

 

Gold Claws Back

After seeing gold and silver's declines of last week (*which I attribute to hedge funds getting margin calls and selling everything that wasn't nailed down to meet margin calls) I*'m pleased to report that as of byte time (modern press time) the price of gold had recovered about $10-bucks.

 

As Wall Street wanders back from Long Island, the futures point to a higher open...

 

Aghast

Self-serve nationally is now $3.26 a gallon - highest ever -- like you need reminding.  Holdout: Ohio where Channel 2 reports prices are down 13-cents from last week.  OK, a little far to go to fill 'er up...

 

What Kind of Theft?

Not sure how he managed it, but here's a fellow who reportedly stole 250 gallons of "diesel gasoline"  No, I have never heard of 'diesel gasoline' before, either.

---

What makes a little more sense is that high diesel prices could put the brakes on new diesel car and truck sales.

---

Personally, if I had the time (*which I don't seem to) I'd be looking at something like this 1967 Daihatsu Tri-Mobile to restore...

 

Going On Six

It's now 4,000 US dead in Iraq after five years of warring. Not to be too ,grisly about this, but this is Number Munching Monday:  Civilian casualties are put between 82,349 on the low side and 89,867 on the high side by www.iraqbodycount.org.  so a median guesstimate would 86,108 and that's a 21.53 to 1 kill ratio.

---

In Afghanistan, fuel shipments are under attack.

 

And the Next War Is...

Not sure yet, but Syria reportedly has massed three divisions on the Lebanese border says the Debka Report...

 

Cell Phone Bugging

think your cell phone is off?  LOL - you're joking, right?  Go watch this video and then see if you understand why I haven't had a cell phone for years.

 

Tent City Life

Here's a tent city eviction video out of Sacramento

---

Meantime, cities are starting to use colored wristbands to identify homeless people living in various tent cities.  Sounds like a distant partial echo of WW II tattooing to me...

 

Politics: Dirty - As Usual

If you're reading that the Eliot Spitzer prostitution case was maybe helped along by a one time republicorp operative, I doubt you'll be surprised...

 

Them Floods

Arkansas is getting a wave of flooding to start the week off.

 

 

---snip and save section ---

 

Coping:  Skipping Registration

Here's an interesting little site to tinker with:  It promises to get you around those mandatory 'free registration' screens for a lot of major news sites.  Check it out.  Also, they have a companion site www.pdfmenot.com which also seems promising.

 

(No, you can't get a free access to Peoplenomics Inside Reports this way - I was pleased to note.)

 

Rainwater Harvesting

One of the biggest lessons learned from this weekend's "Camping In" experiment was the realization that I hadn't done anywhere near adequate planning for the farm animals.

 

Turns out there is a really good Texas Water Development Board ebook on line which in 88-pages goes through about everything a person would want to know to get started with rainwater harvesting...  Having my mind in the gutter may turn out to be useful after all.

 

Oldies But Goodies:  Orlov Link

A number of people have resent me the link to the Dmitri Orlov PowerPoint on why the USSR was better prepared for economic collapse than the USA is.  It's over at the Energy Bulletin and although we've posted it before, you might find his thoughts interesting and well-reasoned.

 

Pet Cremation

I'm not sure what it means when I read headlines like "More owners turn to cremation for pets."  In this 'reality show' crazed world, I would have expected the turn to taxidermists, but what the hell do I know?  Not much, apparently.

 

Times Looking Up

"Where?" you're wondering?  Why, at pawn shops, says the LA Times.

-=--

send snip and save notes - ideas and anything you find useful to live a better, more productive life, to george@ure.net.

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 


 

News from Elliott Wave International

 

Google
The Web
UrbanSurvival Only

Chart of the Week!

 

An explanation of this chart

 

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the powers That Be, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.  Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?"  "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

 

But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999.  It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story.  You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.

 

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes.  So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

 

 

Write when you get rich,

 

George Ure, The People's Economist

 

 

 

Publisher's Notes

Free Financial News updated daily except Sundays.  UrbanSurvival.com is mirrored at www.independencejournal.com

·        Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant. 

·        We try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal.  If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central  we usually proofread and spell check after the first post.  We've had some amusing typos in the past...

·        Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not to be considered "advice"

·        Please read and understand our disclaimer

·        All original content (C) 2007 by George A. Ure. 

·        Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"

 

Our premium service, which contains more in depth reports is available on a $40/year subscription basis.  Details at www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm.

 

The "web bot project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the "Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports" technology pioneered and operated by Tenax Software Engineering for www.halfpasthuman.com.  An intro to the technology is here. Extracts, when used, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: www.halfpasthuman.com.

 

Site Contact: george@ure.net  

  
This site is formatted for viewing at 1024 X 768, Firefox or MSIE 6.0 or later and a current version of the free Adobe Acrobat reader for certain linked articles, available free from Adobe.com at URL: http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html

 

© 2008 Copyright Notice: The author(s) of this site requires that any links or use of  material from this site include the author's name and a link to this site. All links included in our material must also be included in citations.  Address questions to: george@ure.net.  Copyright infringers will be pursued, and please note that Fair Use requires identification of the author name and we require a link  which when you think about it is really minimal recognition of our works and the works of those who are quoted herein.