(er....so to speak...) In
yesterday's report I wondered in a whimsical moment whether we could
send a pipe to that distant planet 369-trillion miles away that had
methane on it. A reader quips back: "At a buck a foot we
still have it covered with derivatives."
Stored Oils
Here's a practical thought:
"Store oil? Hunt geese, or raise
them. Grow peanuts and sunflowers. Freeze bacon. Change your
eating pattern (now, while you're still comfy) so that you get
all your necessary dietary fat from your food, rather than
having to add it to your food in some way. RDA fat =~ 20
grams/day, and there are 19 grams in one goose egg.
Personally I'd really rather eat
long-term-stored stuff if I was going to absolutely starve to
death if I didn't; and then only eat just enough to tide me over
till I could find fresh. Jeez, are these people stocking up for
a ten-year interstellar voyage or something?"
Send snip and save ideas -
anything you have found that makes living sanely in an unsane world
more achievable to
george@ure.net.
--- end snip and save section ---
This week for
Subscribers to Peoplenomics:
Camping In:
A Personal "Disaster
Test" Plan
A lot of non-subscribers ask me "George, how will I know if my
family is really ready, and what will the problems coming be like?"
While there's no way to know for sure what will happen in October
(5th-8th) when we get another 9/11 sized or maybe larger,
shift coming through lifespace, there is a simple way to find out
how it will 'feel': Hold a personal disaster readiness test next
Saturday. But, don't tell your friends - they'll think you're a
survivalist nut. Instead, tell them you're trying "Camping In"
- a 'don't-have-to-go-anywhere' version of 'camping out'.
No camping gear to buy - just shut off your water, power, gas, and
communications for 12-hours (or longer) and you're there. No
camp site fees required.
Reader Note: There will not be a daily update of the
www.urbansurvival.com
Saturday March 22. There won't be any power here at the ranch
during the test. In order to make this as real as possible,
it is suggested that subscribers don't even read the rest of this
week's report until after stores have closed Friday night in order
to get the most benefit from the test... I mean 'camping in'
adventure.
More for Subscribers
Subscription Information
Tell Your Friends
If you know anyone who is
interested in preserving the Constitution, fighting usury from
banksters, and shaking off consumer hypnosis, tell them about this
site.
Click here to send 'em an invite...
No Incumbents
Bumper Stickers
To
get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just
$5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the
White House he is not an incumbent for that office
having never held that job before, you see. And the
CONgressional folks? Don't even get me started... Primaries
this week in Texas and Ohio, to name just a few - eyes wide shut?
Savvy Savings
There are lots of ways
to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such. It
just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is
our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.
Still just $10.
----
Last week's report is here. If for
back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
----
I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if
you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP
resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what
I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here
to
Put Me On Ham Gear List
Thursday March 20, 2008
Where'd The
Glitter Go?
"How low do you think it will
go?" "Why are the precious metals sinking?" "What about
the linguistics?" All damn fine questions, as the price of
precious metals continues to drop amidst what seems to be a major
change of the economic sea state. So what's behind it?
Even the headlines aren't making
sense. Take this one for example:
"Gold dive
pulls everything down: Dollar, commodities from corn to crude
descend as fear of U.S. slowdown sparks a sell-off." That
one doesn't sound right to me because the fears of a U.S. recession
have been around for months - presactly the same period of time when
gold was busy hitting new highs. I'll toss that one on the
'also-ran' pile.
Here's another: "Gold
sinks 6 percent as hot money exits commods market"
But what's this? "Gold
falls to 1-month lows as funds cash in". Friend, I think
we have us a winner, and maybe even some insight into what could be
ahead next week or so for the PM's. Remember what happens to
10,000 hedge funds worldwide at the end of the month? They
have to mark to market on a lot of securities (liar's paper) and if
they don't have sufficient liquid assets, they have to sell off
whatever they can that's liquid (commodities like gold, wheat,
silver, etc.) in order to raise cash. They could be in an
almost "sell-at-any-price" mode because it seems so many are on the
verge of margin calls, that there's nowhere else to go.
My expectation/hope is that they
will come back, as I expect a further commodity run going into
summer and the positions I was caught out in have turned into
concrete shoes with an extra measure of anchor chain around the neck
for good measure.
My highly leveraged (and
previously hot performing) commodity account has managed to blow off
percentage-wise, enough to inflict serious pain. What was
previously about $36,000 a week or so back has been reduced to about
$15,000 before the further drop in the commodities this morning.
About a 60% drop in my commodity account in a week. Easy come,
easy go. I could say: It is, in the end, just paper. BS: It's
$21-thousand bucks!
----
Wheat options that had been 57,
down to 29, silver options at 80 down to 34, coffee options from
1.75 down to 1.40 - although the relative strength there is
promising.
So now comes the judgment
question: Should I sell off everything remaining, go to cash,
accept that my account is only up 300% for 9-months of trading and
go away happy with that, OR should I sit tight, wait for the reality
of next month come along when it seems we're headed to war,
extremely high food prices, and all the rest?
While the headline "US
Wheat Review: Falls 90-cent limit on Broad Sell-Off" sounds like
an invitation to flee the exchange and just put my money in a bank
somewhere, to await the return of economic sanity, even that has
become a nearly impossible task: I have no clue which banks
will be able to Bear what's coming during the rest of the year.
My track is to turn paper into
things of future value as quickly as I can except for a little 'play
money' which is what's in the commodity account.
---
At some point, I return to the
fundamentals and try to take the longer view only though on some of
my options I've only got about 60-trading days to run.
Take wheat: The Jamaica
Gleaner has a John Rapley piece in it today titled "The
looming global food shortage" No doubt about it, the
rising incomes in Asia and elsewhere are going to drive up food
prices. And Farmer's Weekly out of the UK reports disease
threats are very high as "Take-all
threatens second wheats".
It's reports like these, along
with headlines in Namibia that "Fungus
devastates wheat " that cause me not to sell the wheat
options. I realize their value could decline, but would it be
wise to sell into the panic? I don't think so.
Similarly on the silver options:
Do I think that the Fed printing up money and bailing out banksters
so that they won't feel the same pain as the tent city residents of
SoCal, as would have been the case had their firms actually filed
bankruptcy, is a permanent solution? No, not hardly.
Headlines like "Silver
Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out" give me heart as I scan
fundamentals.
At some point, the country has to
clear out gobs of bad debt and there are only two extremes to get
there: a killer bout of deflation which could take 10-years to
work though as was the case in the 1930's,. or a solid
hyper-inflation which could reduce the pain-time to 24-months or so,
but during that time paper assets would sink to the point
where wheel barrows of [paper/fiat] money would be needed for a loaf
of bread, as was the Weimar Germany experience of the early 1920's.
----
The decline of the precious metals
has done a wonderful public service for the thoughtful investor to
absorb: It has given us something to at least tuck away for
possible use later in the year.
This takes a little explaining,
normally the kind of thing I'd save for Peoplenomics subscribers,
but because I'm in a little pain this morning (I try to learn
something from 60% drops in my account) let's pencil something in
here.
I notice that the Dow posted an
all time (weekly) closing high of 14,093 10/14/2007. and then here
last week, the Dow had a weekly close of 11,893.7. That's a
23-week run from a Dow high to a possible bottom with all the Fed
shoveling of money that could be mustered. 21-weeks past the
Dow high would have been a dandy time to sell gold; it would have
been selling into the final bit of strength before the current drop.
Now let me roll forward to this
fall. Linguistically, we're expecting something which
will have a large economic component to occur about the end of the
first week of October. Like the Ides of March were a time of
panic in the banking industry.
So counting back 21 weeks from
there puts us into the third week of May. So I make a mental
note to myself: Sometime between about May 15th and the middle
of June (when the next triple witch shows up, along with those
nastygrams and voicemails to hedge funds about their positions, I
don't see any reason why we could have another pop in the
commodities market.
The fundamentals are there, supply
has a cloud over it, and demand is strong in all the food groups, so
why not?
About the only question seems to
be the purchasing power of the US dollar which shows surprising
strength this morning. A Forbes headline "Forex:
Dollar falls in afternoon trade as investors bet on more Fed rate
cuts".
The way I read that is the Fed
seems likely to continue its rate cutting course, and as rates come
down and borrowing (or more helicopter drops of billions to
banks/street firms in trouble) continues, I can only argue that the
Fed seems likely to want to slightly overshoot on the side of
inflation rather than risk the policy bummers that come from
deflation.
My outlook for the commodities
markets is probably rosier than even Jim Rogers'. "Three legs
to a bull market" and "Third advances are the largest in
commodities" are a couple of tried and [mostly] true axioms around
Chicago.
I'm good with that - so I'll hold.
But thanks for the timing lesson. I now have 21-thousand
reasons to be out of long positions before the next triple
witching week -- and with that, a new-found appreciation of
how much trouble those 10,000 hedge funds are in.
Oh yeah, now you see 21-thousand
reasons why I don't offer financial advice...
Good Bears?
What's this?
Seems that Bear Stearns execs will forego some bonuses after all
- a point brought to my attention by a reader who also noted:
"Not only that, but these people are
losing their life’s savings (employees own 30% of the company)
and likely their jobs.
I am irate over the deal because the
Federal Reserve didn’t step up to the plate and loan them the
money to fight off the run on the bank they experienced, and
then forced them to give away their business at a fire sale
price to fat cat JPM. It looks like they wanted to make an
example of Bear, or perhaps it was revenge for Bear not
participating the Long Term Capital Management bailout a while
back."
Wonder how many execs will be taking
salary cuts?
High Rollers
Department
If the market's ups and downs
aren't enough, there's this
new roller coaster opening at Universal Studios Orlando in January
of '09...
It's a Riot
China has admitted that the rioting over their Tibet occupation has
spread to other provinces.
US Anti-War
Busts
While
George Bush is still selling "victory" in Iraq, the US
MainStreamMedia (MSM) have been effectively
burying the story of how 160 were arrested on Wednesday but it's
getting big play globally, despite the corpgov lock on it.
Bin Laden's
Latest
Terror experts have their eyes on
Europe
in the wake of the latest Osama bin Laden tape - which warns against
publications of cartoons depicting the Prophet. Meantime,
the
Vatican says the WOT etc is not a new Crusade as OBL claims...
Rain Deaths
If you're
keeping score, it's now 134-dead from the rains in the nation's
midsection.
Starbucks
Changes
Now that Howard Schultz is back at the helm at Starbucks, big
changes are afoot...
It's a Gas
Researchers report they have
spied methane-like gas on a planet outside our solar system.
Gee, all that's missing in a 63 light-year long pipe to get it here.
It you're a pipe salesman, you might want to have a quote ready for
369,538,848,000,000 miles of pipe...say, wonder if China could make
370 trillion miles of pipeline, just to be on the safe side?
Satellite
Follow-up
Seems there was a lot less debris than expected from the recent
satellite shoot-down worries. Which, I suppose is a lesson in
physics about when things hit at 22,000 miles an hour.
---
Speaking of hitting things...
Suspect
Ramming
A big furor in South Carolina over Highway Patrolmen using their
cars to ram fleeing suspects surfaces.
Wine
Insurance
While it's interesting to note
that "Lloyd's
insures winemaker's nose" I wonder if any winemakers or
distillers have thought about product liability insurance against
these headaches I keep getting the next day...
Fun Read
"Management
Techniques from the Dark Side" in Wired this week. My
pick: "Explain the end, ignore the means" when it comes to
getting people to do something.
--- snip and save ---
Coping:
Differing with X'er's
A rebuttal to the GenX rant on
Baby Boomers:
"I beg to differ with your Gen Xer!
I may be a boomer, but can, and have done everything on his list
except whine! I found that whining never got me anything, and
nobody cared. I learned that in my teens! What I have is what I
earned. I generally spent my money on education, tools and
materials, and investments with residuals.
Many boomers were coddled - some
were not. The same is probably true for X's and Millennials.
There are lots of useless loud whiny
boomers (and X'ers, and Millennials), but they generally are the
group and politically oriented ones. They may not survive. I
have little time for politics - too much important work to do,
and I am first and always an individual. If I want a big house,
I build or buy one. A Mercedes? You have to be kidding! What a
waste of money on a consumer good. Better to get something that
rarely breaks and can be fixed for a pittance. But if I wanted a
Mercedes, or a Rolls Royce, I would buy one in a moment. And
yes, I do all my own work - well. Very little that I can't do,
even if I screw it up once in a while. Life is short, death is
certain. Why worry too much?
We were born, we WILL die, and we
might as well enjoy what's in the middle. Just a point of view.
I an NOT my brother's keeper, though
I may CHOOSE to take care of anyone, and usually do. Except the
whiners.
"Modern" medicine is inaccessible
and uncontrollable. I have studied medicine, among many other
disciplines, and realize the emperor has few clothes - some in
the case of injury, yet little to none in the case of
degenerative disease. Prescription laws and the FDA limit our
ability to treat ourselves effectively. Best to live life until
death catches us, rather than worrying daily about the
inevitable. DIY medicine is worthwhile, though difficult, and
the only form I will involve myself with.
To quote Henry David Thoreau: "In
wildness lies the preservation of the earth".
Worldview is important, yet it is
important to avoid artificial distinctions and discrimination,
such as "generations". I KNOW I can keep up with and probably
outpace most younger folks in damn near anything."
Send snip & save notes and comments to
george@ure.net
--- end snip and save section ---
Wednesday March 29, 2008
Behind the Fed Moves:
Saving Bankster Bonuses
My attorney (of the tax and CPA
variety) sent me a longish email, but it makes a really good point:
The reason for the recent bailouts is that without them, a lot of
banksters would have to pay back their ill-gotten gains...I mean
bonuses that were handed out in January. Check it out:
"George,
With the interest rate cuts Tuesday
the FED has now done 5 actions in ONE week!! UNPRECEDENTED in my
memory (which unfortunately is longer than I wish it was)
Tues 3/11: Helicopter drop of $200
Billion Dollars into the banking system Fri 3/14: Helicopter
drop of unknown amount of $$ into Bears Stearns via Chase Bank
Sun 3/16: Helicopter drop of additional $30 Billion Dollars into
Bears Stearns via Chase Bank Sun 3/16: 1/4 point rate cut Tues
3/18: 3/4 point rate cut
Now if this isn't a "Central Bank
Panic" I do not think one exists. Obviously serious "Systemic
Problems" in the US Financial System are driving the FED to do
these multiple interventions so close together, and with all
this liquidity and Government BAILOUTS being injected into the
system everything financial in normal times would now be
screaming towards the moon (FED rocket fuel money - direct
liquidity injections, 3 in the last week alone all of which were
of HUGE size, - usually finds it's way into the easiest
investments to make first, bonds and stocks, and only later into
the real economy). Enough said on that.
Next point: Bear Stearns paid
out BILLIONS of dollars in Bonuses in January. If they had
filed for bankruptcy then those Bonuses would have to been paid
back to Bear Stearns under Bankruptcy Law.
VOILA ... since they did not file
bankruptcy, but were instead "sold" for a mere $250 million (1/4
the value of their NYC office building) , the TAXPAYER, via the
FED, ends up footing the MULTI BILLIONS DOLLARS in costs and
expenses that would otherwise have been paid out of those
returned Bonuses!!
In other words ... and I am somewhat
LIVID on this one: The Taxpayers GAVE those high paid INDIVIDUAL
Wall Street Bankers at Bear Stearns a departing PERSONAL GIFT OF
SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS by allowing this deal to be structured
as it was!!
When was it the US Government wrote
YOU a check for the MILLIONS of Dollars that some of those
people (who caused their own problem in the first place) just
got? (oh and this does NOT even include the "going away" money
that JP Morgan will be paying many of those same people out of
the $30 Billion Dollar Government payment they are receiving.
There are various estimates I have read on how much more
TAXPAYER money will be going to those people, ranging from $1
Billion Dollars to $3 Billion Dollars!!)
Wall Street Bankster Types FIRMLY
believe in the COMMUNIST system, as first perverted in the ex
USSR: From the "Lesser types" ALL that you can afford to pay, To
the "Anointed types" ALL that you can get your arms around and
carry away as you leave the premises.
Where do I sign up to get paid
Millions if I succeed ... and Millions if I fail?
... now if I was a Wall Street
Bankster what SMALL percentage of that am I expected to give to
each of the two major political parties for this "FED
insurance"? I will write that check right now...
This is CRONY CAPITALISM written in
HUGE block bolded letters!!
If you didn't see or hear about
Jimmy Rogers rant on this you owe it to yourself!!
My old Republican Party has
definitely descended into a worse morass of special interest
groups than the Democrats ... only this one is not based upon
any "idealism" driving the special interests, just RAW BRIBERY
via MONEY.
Just an UPSET Country Attorney
You know what's even more upsetting?
How the stoopid MainStream/LameStreamMedia isn't asking any
of the Presidential wannabe's [republicorp/democorp put-ups] about
this.
You know why, right? Big Campaign
Contributions from the Street. More on that in a sec, but this is
totally UFB! (un frigging believable!).
Running The
Shorts
You may remember last week I
suggested that this being Triple Witch Week, it would have been an
interesting speculation to buy up a few very short term index
options which expire this week, and see if maybe a few dollars
couldn't be scalped that way. If you were of a mind to play
this particular kind of Russian Roulette, that is -- which I
personally am not. I don't give financial advice - only a
discussion of the economy and what I do in my personal account.
On figuring out the impacts of the
Fed's cut yesterday (story from yesterday afternoon here) the market
caught fire...sort of. The Dow was up 3 1/2 percent and 420
points. Is there a LOT more room on the upside? Oh sure.
Besides my telling you for weeks that we would likely have one last
shot at a rally into the summer,
we're now seeing headlines in Mark Hulbert's MarketWatch Column that
a "Double nine-to-one" signal was triggered Tuesday.
Although the market is looking a
little down in the futures this morning (-77 when I looked at "oh,
is that the cat I tripped over-thirty), there will no doubt be a
little tick up in the housing and finance sectors today because as
an AP report headlines "Gov't
Has Plan to Ease Capital Collars". If that's a little too
obtuse, it boils down to letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae play
more in the housing market than they already do. This sleight
of hand will be done by reducing their required cash reserves by
about a third.
---
In case you haven't figured out
the big-big-big picture, it's looking more and more like the
republicorp, sensing that the American public is tired of the loose
borders, foreign wars, and continued concentration of power and
money into the hands of the few, seems determined as hell to hand
the incoming democorps a steaming lump of doo-doo. It will
then be prime time for the republicorps to get out their spin
machinery to announce that 'democorps raise taxes and drive the
country into depression' - things which were already set up
by the republicorps during their terms in office.
Under it all, however, is an
illusion that voters decide the political future of the country.
That's a really nice theory, but elections aren't cheap, so
politicians are money-driven critters - and whoever writes the
largest check gets the most 'access'.
It's not a lost cause, though.
There are still a few small victories around for those of us who
hold dearly to the ideals of the Framers. For example,
Governor Dave Freudenthal up in Wyoming has vetoed raising limits
there on campaign contributions. Hallelujah - someone's
got it right.
---
Over in The Runs, we note
that
Obama raised $55 million in February. On the other hand,
what's her name raised $35 million. All of which is dandy
if you're the national sales manager for a TV station and you get to
pocket the commissions when all this gets spent, but the rest of us
are having the country hijacked by corporate checkbooks.
Say, here's an idea: How
about a simple law that would outlaw giving money to both sides
of a campaign? Last time I looked, most of the big investment
houses on the Street were writing nearly equal-sized checks to both
democorps because they don't have a clue about polit8ics any more
than they did about the Housing Bubble - or the Internet Bubble
before that.
So, please excuse me if I sound a
little cynical about things today: At the ripe old age of 59, I have
seen a bottle of pop go from 5-cents to a buck-something and with a
few shining exceptions (Washington
State Senator Charlie Elicker's Teddy Roosevelt spoof campaign
against Scoop Jackson, Ross Perot's
honesty about that great sucking noise and
Ron Paul's MSM
censored questioning of central banksters) the LameStreamMedia
is worthless, resorting to the "Money Honeys" infotainment angle to
economic coverage and offering softball questions to clueless
politicians. Please...
I keep hoping someone in an
investigative TV news unit will get serious about reporting the
buried economic stories: The real inflation rate -- the kind
you and I pay for, not the kind that are hedonically sanitized, the
theft of purchasing power by the Central Banksters who owe
allegiance only to their ilk and not the Constitution, and oh, did I
mention the naked short selling story? How about the virtual
fence boondoggle on the Southern Border? Canada's military
being invited into the US if things go rotten and the economy tanks?
Yeah, when the republicorps start
waving their finger in self-righteous indignation in the middle of
the Second Depression (October 2008 through March 2010 if you're
planning for it), I hope to be around to inject a little sanity into
the discussion.
---
Instead of "right" what we get is
"expediency" and "business as usual". In reality is what?
Checkbook government. If you've got a big enough
checkbook, there are no laws.
Well, thanks a lot for that.
It paves the way for a very predictable rally into about mid summer
of commodities (and perhaps stock prices), the May war with Iran to
come, and the final theft of Baby Boomer retirements this fall with
whatever it is that comes along in the first week of October.
How to Get
Around Insider Trading Regs
Like we need another example:
Check out this morning's piece on insider trading over at wikileaks.
Airlines in
Trouble?
Delta is offering early outs to 30,000 employees as United and
Northwest eye cuts, too. The thing that worries me about
airline cuts is that they ripple so far: This means tougher
times are ahead for hotels, car rental outfits, and tourism in
general, too...Heck, even restaurants feel the pinch when travel
dries up.
Permanent War Department:
Going On Six
The headline: "Bush:
Retreat from Iraq Would Embolden Iran, fund Terrorists."
The reality: Retreat from Iraq
would crash the economy (worse than what's coming). What would
we do with a million more unemployed?
As the NY Times reports "Estimates
of Iraq War Costs Were Not Close to Ballpark." It's over
half a trillion now and going strong...
Russia Probes
NATO
Another
Russian bomb flight over the Atlantic is making headlines.
Is this Russia's way of messaging to us that they don't like the
idea of an attack on Iran?
---
Notice how
Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel is in Israel saying a nuclear
Iran would be disastrous?
I reckon we have about a month to
six weeks left before the bombs drop.
Winds, Floods
Widespread
flooding in Missouri Tuesday. Means a wet weekend may be
coming for the Northeast, I expect.
---
Damage from last weekend's tornados in Georgia now over $250-million.
---
Clean up day
in South Carolina hit with tornadoes Tuesday.
Tarnished Eagle Department:
Tent City Press
One of America's long-standing
images aboard has been the idea that this is the 'Land of
Opportunity'. That, sadly, was a long time ago. Besides
the reputation and a global bully for whatever resources are about,
we're also now
seeing
overseas MSM coverage of our spreading Tent Cities.
Cool Page of
the Day
Here's an
interesting map of gasoline prices by county for the whole
country courtesy of
www.indianagasprices.com
Overseas
Inflation
Power
prices going up in Syria.
--- snip and save section---
Coping Section:
Generation Gaps, Revisited
Seems there's 'new generation
gap'...an email on point:
"Anything in Linguistics???
Something that has hit Main stream
now is the war between Gen X and Baby Boomers. Me, being Gen X,
have noticed some things Baby boomers have in common:
They Whine A lot:
1. Whine because their Mercedes was
broken
2. Whine because they could not
afford the better Mercedes.
3. Whine because their house was too
small
4. Whine because they could not get
a more expensive model (car or what ever)
5. Whine about the high cost of
labor (while giving themselves a huge bonus and screwing other
laborers. I have seen this alot: 100% bonus for them 5% for
labor...hmmmmmm very ethical.
6. Whine because they had to "do too
much work"
7. Whine because they didn't get
their share are make enough profit.
8 Whine in Reaction to George Ure's
articles...meaning "some people may not know how to do (this or
that) like turn off their gas, practice actually doing something
for themselves, how to install a generator. (THEY MAY NEED A
PROFESSIONAL)etc.
9. Whine about health care "who's
going to pay for my doctor"
10. Whine about where their social
security is going to come from (forgetting they have approved
the spending in congress and continue to do so for really STUPID
things)
11. Whine about everyone else being
lazy
12. Whine about why "SOMEONE" wasn't
doing something about "THAT"
13. Whine about "safety" trying to
outlaw guns and such...then whine that the police should be
looking after "them and their property" etc
CAN'T A BB DO ANYTHING
THEMSELVES???????? HAVE THEY EVER READ THE CONSTITUTION???????
I can tell you almost all my friends
44 and under can ALREADY do these things that are listed on your
site. On the chance we cannot do something, we (GenX) perform
the duties by simply grabbing a set of tech books and figuring
it out OURSELVES. HMMMM self sufficient...a word baby boomers
should learn very well, because we (Gen X) are tired of hearing
the Whine and will not be lending a helping hand later unless it
is for a "fellow" man.
My point is that, Baby Boomers
resist doing anything for themselves (Except George Ure and a
few others I know)... So much so, that now since I am a "high up
"P" type guy, I avoid hiring Baby Boomers at all costs because
they are a COST not an asset..."whine, they are just trouble
Aha! I was right!
Slightly overweight 50-somethings are unemployable!!!
I think the big problem a lot of
BB's have is that they still deep down inside want to believe the
media imagery that has been shoved down our throats since the TV
came into most homes in the 1950's.
Just thinking about it: If I had
watched just one out of TV per day since we got our first black &
white set in about 1957 (or so), I would have an astounding
18,625 hours of programming rammed into my head. Most days
I watch about 1-minute of TV - to pull of the pre-open futures, and
that's it. Books are safer.
Long Term
Cooking Oils
I raised an interesting question
yesterday with the idea of long term cooking oil storage. A
large number of replies, so what I've done here is go through and
post a sampling of the highlights...
George I have had great luck
with coconut oils. I have had some for over four years now and
they are still tasty. They haven't gone rancid. The nice thing
is that they come in a sealed jar and store easily
---
We've seen unrefined,
unhydrogenated coconut oil keep as long as 6 years at room temp.
(It's 95% saturated fat, and uniquely stable.)
---
coconut oil will last the
longest. you want fats (solid at room temperature) not oils
(liquid at room temperature). this is why the elders stored
lard. of course hydrogenated oils (fake fats solid at room temp)
don't count...
---
Hi George. Coconut oil will
stay good for a very long time. Dutch Valley Foods is one
company that sells it in those big white pails (it isn't cheap,
though). Any saturated fat will stay good for longer than
unsaturated fats.
---
Here are a couple of places who deal
in coconut oil, and info.
http://www.wildernessfamilynaturals.com/
http://www.tropicaltraditions.com/virgin_coconut_oil.htm
Gas Engine
Tip
I thought I knew pretty much
everything there was to know about small engines. But here's
one I had somehow missed:
George
To keep small engines easy to start:
Whenever you shut them off (especially when done using them) put
the start cord out to the point at which you get the most
resistance and then slowly let the cord retract. This puts the
cylinder at top dead center (TDC). This closes the exhaust and
intake ports so that no air and moisture can get into the
cylinder, rust and cause scoring in the cylinder walls and a
lost of compression. I have done this will all of my small
engines and they all start on less than 5 pulls even after
sitting for the off season. Of course you must also run the gas
dry or use a stabilizer.
Less work to ya,
---
Send snip and save notes
(anything that would help people get along when times are bad (and
unfortunately, this isn't 'bad' yet) to
george@ure.net
Tuesday March 18, 2008
Fed:
3/4th's Right?
From the FOMC statement
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided
today to lower its target for the federal
funds rate 75 basis points to 2-1/4 percent.
Recent information indicates that the
outlook for economic activity has weakened
further. Growth in consumer spending has
slowed and labor markets have softened.
Financial markets remain under considerable
stress, and the tightening of credit
conditions and the deepening of the housing
contraction are likely to weigh on economic
growth over the next few quarters.
Inflation has been elevated, and some
indicators of inflation expectations have
risen. The Committee expects inflation
to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a
projected leveling-out of energy and other
commodity prices and an easing of pressures
on resource utilization. Still,
uncertainty about the inflation outlook has
increased. It will be necessary to
continue to monitor inflation developments
carefully.
Today’s policy action, combined with those
taken earlier, including measures to foster
market liquidity, should help to promote
moderate growth over time and to mitigate
the risks to economic activity.
However, downside risks to growth remain.
The Committee will act in a timely manner as
needed to promote sustainable economic
growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action
were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F.
Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn;
Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin;
Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M.
Warsh. Voting against were Richard W.
Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred
less aggressive action at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors
unanimously approved a 75-basis-point
decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/2
percent. In taking this action, the
Board approved the requests submitted by the
Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve
Banks of Boston, New York, and San
Francisco.
Will this magically save the
economy? Hmmm..pardon me while a pour of shot of skeptic
juice.
Now We Rally?
With the futures up over a
hundred fifty points this morning, admittedly at oh-dark-thirty, one
can't help but feel at least a few reasons to be optimistic about
the economy.
So, how much will the Fed be
cutting?
Ed Yardeni, chief deep thinker at Yardeni Research, seems to think
the Fed needs to drop things a full one hundred basis points -
that's one full percentage point - in the move, lest they be
seen as not taking the crisis seriously enough.
---
The day to day
perturbations in the market, which have included about a $10,000
day-to-day bouncing around of my commodity option trading account,
while a bit nerve racking, is really just trading noise. When
the volatility index has been kicking up, you're going to get a
little nail-biting about your holdings.
The trick is to take the items
that are coming out in the headlines and sort through all the
meaningless crap to nail down what the long range consequences of
current policies will be.
Armed with the linguistic runs
and a little common sense, and a second cup of coffee, I figure the
moon shot in the precious metals in general, but silver in
particular, should be no more than two or three weeks from getting
underway. Why would the metals rally? Let me step over
to the white board and sketch out a timeline.
The Future Playing Field
Israel is about to hold the latest military exercise in their
history toward the end of the first week in April. And,
with Dick Cheney going to Iraq, and Condi Rice going to Russia, no
doubt to deliver some kind of 'sphere of influence' message to the
Kremlin's leadership, the press writes non-stories ("Rice
optimistic of improved Russia, US relations"). It's a weak
(but building) circumstantial case that the groundwork is being laid
in right now for an early May strike by either Israel or the US (or
both) on Iran.
Even now, there are fresh
headlines about "Why
Fallon Resigned" which go to the general kind of
disagreement over Iran rather than something extremely specific: the
first use of nuclear weapons.
---
I'm making investment decisions
based on a single vision: The clock is running out for the neocons
to pull off their long desired attack on Iran. Nukes would be the
tool of choice.
Even
though the issue has been around since late 2006, the Congress
has abdicated its responsibility to clearly articulate that 'first
use' is not acceptable, and thus,
the Pentagon has been studying it, and except for strong leaders
like Fallon - now departed - the current round of thinking
the unthinkable is likely to be followed by the doing the
unthinkable this spring.
Linguistically, the first use of
nukes would be an ideal "match" to set off calls for revolutionary
change because the American population would be overwhelmingly
opposed to such events.
On the other side, when the
strike comes, any radioactivity resulting (and spreading beyond
Iran's borders) would no doubt be denied with claims that "We
used conventional weapons only - the radioactivity is Iranian
sourced - they really were building nukes."
Hegelian dialectic
at its finest. Another wedge dividing the American public
into us/them camps, an attention shift from the banksters off in the
back rooms robbing us blind.
I won't get into a discussion
about the wrongness or rightness of what I think will occur.
Instead, I'll stay focused on possible investment impacts of such
events:
-
If the future goes in this
direction, then a doubling of precious metals seems to me like a
slam dunk.
-
Ditto the price of oil:
OPEC would be almost certain to impose supply restraints on the
US in retaliation.
-
That in turn would scrunch
the economy and send food prices soaring. But hey, at
least we'd be past the deflation concern as we'd be printing up
money like crazy.
-
The lurch into hyperinflation
would paper over investment losses, and if foreign countries
turned their ships around -- loaded with goods bound for the US
-- because our money is failing, well that's another aspect of
what's in modelspace.
Oh, yeah, this also would pave
the way to completion of the "Death of the Dollar" meme in
modelspace to play out, seed the calls for "early elections" yet to
arrive in mainstream, and a lot of other data points. New
currency, anyone?
I'd obviously like to be
completely wrong on this, but my reading of the tea leaves is that
this is close enough to a 'plot fit' behind today's headlines that
it's worth positioning my entire portfolio for precisely this kind
of a future.
I won't tell you what my
commodity options are, but they have been carefully selected to
cover a wide range of falling dollar impacts..
Six weeks and a half weeks from
now, I should be either approaching rich and sad, or very happy but
poor. My preference is the latter, but my expectation is the
former. Remind me not to be in Iran after the market close
over the
weekend of May 3-4.
Attention On
the Flight Deck
Man the helicopters...prepare for
lift off.
Here comes a Fed cut.
Producer
Prices
The Producer Price Index is out -
and here's the official wording:
"The
Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.3 percent in
February, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This
increase followed a 1.0-percent advance in January and a
0.3-percent decline in December. At the earlier stages of
processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate
goods moved up 0.8 percent in February subsequent to a
1.4-percent advance in January, and the crude goods index rose
3.7 percent after climbing 2.5 percent in the prior month.
Within finished goods, the index for
energy goods increased 0.8 percent in February compared with a
1.5-percent gain in the previous month. Prices for consumer
foods declined 0.5 percent following a 1.7-percent rise in
January. By contrast, slightly counteracting the deceleration in
finished goods prices, the index for finished goods other than
foods and energy moved up 0.5 percent in February after
increasing 0.4 percent a month earlier.
Before seasonal adjustment, the
Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.2 percent in
February to 172.2 (1982 = 100). From February 2007 to February
2008, finished goods prices advanced 6.4 percent. Over the same
period, the index for finished energy goods increased 19.6
percent, prices for finished consumer foods rose 6.0 percent,
and the index for finished goods other than foods and energy
climbed 2.4 percent. For the 12 months ended February 2008,
prices received by intermediate goods producers increased 8.8
percent, and the crude goods index surged 24.6 percent.
Finished goods
The index for finished energy goods
increased 0.8 percent in February after rising 1.5 percent in
January. The index for unleaded mid-premium gasoline increased
2.8 percent in February subsequent to a 4.3-percent advance in
the prior month. Diesel fuel prices also moved up less than a
month earlier. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas and home
heating oil turned down in February. By contrast, partially
offsetting the deceleration in finished energy goods prices, the
index for residential natural gas rose 5.7 percent following a
0.7-percent gain in January. Prices for both unleaded regular
and premium grade gasoline also advanced at faster rates
compared with a month earlier. The index for residential
electric power declined less than it had in the preceding month.
The thing I always try to watch
are the intermediate goods and crude goods because these (along with
the consumer Debt figures can guide your thinking about whether
inflation or deflation is in the works. With crude goods up
more than 24% year on year and intermediate goods up 8.8% year on
year, I still figure on inflation to come.
You want something to gnaw on?
Ask yourself why would the year-on-year change in finished goods be
6.4% while government straight-faced maintains (*in
a different report) that inflation is running a mere 4% over
year ago levels?
We are So
Screwed
The latest political sex
confessional I've tripped over is the headline "Gov.
Paterson admits to sex with other woman for years". Why
the pols can spend more on all this excess personal energy on
solving the problems of society, rather than burning it off in the
rack is beyond me...
Credit Card
Data
Seems another big security breach
involving digidollars/credit cards has taken place.
This time the story involved a grocery chain in the Northeast,
but I keep coming back to this is why I try to use cash more and
credit cards seldom...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping:
Stored Cooking Oil
Here's a good question around
which to do a little sharing:
I wondered if you or a reader
could help. I'm doing pretty good on food storage. The only hole
I seem to have is long term storage of cooking oils or fats. I
can't seem to find anything that stores longer than two years.
Any suggestions.
We've got some canned butter -
and the olive oil in metal cans is good for a couple of years - but
anything else beyond that? Let us know...
Trucker's
Strike
People are asking:
"Hey George, Have you heard
anything on the trucker side of things of a possible shut down
by them all on or near April 15th? Word on the street is that a
large majority of independent truckers are planning to protest
the Mexican truckers and the gov't. and big oil, since many of
them are about BKO due to rising fuel costs. It is said that
they are going to meet somewhere at the border in Texas and just
park their rigs nose to nose. Just wondering?"
I haven't found anything
organized (which is not to say it's not out there. The only
thing out for April 15th at the moment seems to be the 'usual' tax
protests.
Camping In
Hints
With our personal preparedness
test coming up this weekend, this was of interest:
"I became a subscriber about
a month ago and am really enjoying your writings. In reading
about your camping in 'test' I felt a few comments are
appropriate since I live what most would call a primitive
lifestyle. Off grid since 1978.Use solar and wind for power.
Here are a couple suggestions: The first and my wife's idea is
make some cookies or other comfort food.
Either ahead of time or get
the ingredients together and a plan to bake them, maybe in a
foil covered pan inside your bar-b-que if it has a cover.
Familiar comfort foods that you really enjoy can relieve a lot
of stress in trying times
Next, the water in plastic
barrels, please change them out with fresh water, not only will
they taste nasty because some of the poly taste is absorbed by
the water, but you may be getting a strong dose of an estrogen
mimicking substance from the poly I live in the desert so
keeping water stored is a necessity. I found by using 35%
hydrogen peroxide, food grade 7-10 drops per gallon water keeps
over 5 years. I also put it in the goat's water trough to stop
algae from forming.
As far as cooking, charcoal
briquettes are amazing if you know a few tricks. After you get a
few burning, place the briquettes in an even pattern, as few as
3 usually more) depending on how much heat needed for the amount
of food and size of pan etc. Put them on TOP of a grill and
place your cooking pan directly on the briquettes. this
regulates (lowers) the heat and they last more than twice as
long. If you wish to cook longer, just place new briquettes
against the glowing ones and they ignite, continuing the heat.
Dutch ovens are also a
wonderful convenience using charcoal or wood coals. There's a
few helpful hints for you to ponder. I am sure you will learn
stuff you are unaware of at this time.
Tiller Time
Hint
On gasoline storage:
"George, A good tip for
gasoline-run equipment like tillers and chainsaws is to buy
93-octane gas and put Sta-bill fuel stabilizer in it each year.
Most of us rarely use these tools, but they need to run when we
do. These engines will start every time and run better. An old
small engine repair guy told me that most repairs he deals with
are caused by old, low-octane gas sitting around and de-grading
in cans and engine tanks. The gas stays fresh all year and you
just dump it in your truck at the end of the year and start a
fresh master-can."
Along the same line:
Hi George,
Just read today's update. I had sent
this before, but I will repeat it, since it seems some of my
comments get lost in the flow that I know you live in.
The best industrial strength fuel
stabilizers/additives I know are PRI-D and PRI-G, for diesel and
gasoline respectively. PRI-D can actually reverse diesel
deterioration and keep the fuel useful for up to 10 years -
maybe more.
I am about to order a several
gallons for myself today. I have nothing to do with the company
that makes or sells these. Here is a source:
http://www.batterystuff.com/fuel-treatments/PRID128x6.html
You can buy much smaller quantities
if that is what you need.
Also in the mail (somewhere!) was
a really good note about GenX'ers having already been where the Baby
Boomers are going - I will try to find that for tomorrow - it was
really good.
---
Send snip and save comments/ideas
to george@ure.net
---end snip and save section---
Around the Ranch:
Getting My
Goat
Well, we got
rid of our brood of three Pygmy goats Monday afternoon.
Actually gave them away to a local goat rancher.
After spending
two hours trying to run down the buck, and tackling him, only to
have him wrestle free losing my glasses in the process for a half
hour) the local goat fellow showed up with a helper and a four foot
high section of chain link fence. We simply strung it up as a
kind of a squeeze chute and that was it.
Major learning
point: If you ever need to catch a goat, use a chute. I
am so sore this morning I've made a note to add a section of chain
link to our inventory for goat catching. We're also really
paying attention with the big goats to training them to come when
the feed bucket is shaken...that's the best answer of all of them.
Monday March 17, 2008
Cool Heads,
Stormy Mondays
So many people have done the song
"Stormy Monday" that it's had to keep track of them all, but
according to Wikipedia,
it dates back to T-Bone Walker's recording back in 1947.
No, Eric Clapton was not the first to record it. Besides being
a great piece of music, though, the song's lyrics "They
call it stormy Monday, but Tuesday's just as bad..." pretty
well captures my outlook for the markets this week.
---
A couple of other songs are
rattling around in my head this morning: "Money for Nothing"
came to mind with the report that
the Fed
Sunday lowered its discount rate by a quarter point to 3.25%,
evidence I suppose that we're into either Dire Straits or simple in
dire straits.
---
As I related to Peoplenomics
subscribers this weekend, my attorney who is of the tax and CPA
variety, who has been studying the long Wave diligently since 1979,
has been sending me links all weekend pointing toward his
expectation of a 1987-like Monday/Tuesday period. The CNN
Money headline "Wall
Street in crisis of confidence" is admittedly a little
optimistic.
A quick check of the 'net this
morning and we see that there is even some emerging buzz over the
possibility of a bank holiday being declared while the market works
through its current bout of more sellers than buyers.
Tomorrow, and one reason for the Stormy Monday/Tuesday thought,
is when
Lehman and Goldman release their first quarter results.
---
Another thing which should be
clarified by the close tomorrow is what will happen to the JP Morgan
/ Citic Securities / Bear Stearns rescue deal. With talk of
Bear being worth $2 a share to JP Morgan,
the
idea that the Chinese Cabinet's investment arm wants to change some
deal points could be another gallon of gas on the fire.
---
Alan (the Housing Bubbler) Greenspan writes in the Financial
Times Sunday under the headline "We will never have a perfect model
of risk".
Risk? Maybe not. But
I'm developing a pretty good model of pump and dump banksters...
And even
though it's showing up as humor (of the gallows sort) in places like
the Yahoo Bear Stearns discussion board, there's no denying the
linguistics of lamp posting bankers is starting to catch fire.
Score another hit for the time monks...
---
Linguistics have been guiding our
personal investment decisions and it
looks like the "Death of the Dollar" meme is going mainstream right
on schedule.
As a result, at least around
here, there's a notable absence of panic. Seeing what was
coming late last week, we fished into a few (a half dozen or so)
close to the money silver commodity calls and with gold up more than
$20 so far this morning, there's a certain glitter to the metals, or
maybe it's more like a grim satisfaction being a half step ahead of
developments.
While the AP is headlining that
"Global Markets Tumble" and
the price of oil heads to $112 a barrel, we'll just sit, well
positioned and relatively insulated from the problems ahead.
I won't go into my trading plans
in any depth, except to note that within every crisis is tremendous
opportunity for students of history or long wave economics. We
should see huge inflation in the pipeline when the Produce Price
Index comes out this week.
If we close under 11,634 for a
couple of days, then sailing off the edge of the world may be closer
than October, but I have faith in the government to print up
whatever it takes to paper through this and set the stage of a big
inflation to come.
Technical note: If the
gold and USD charts at the top of this page aren't updating it's
because the chart server over at
www.kitco.com is being slammed.
Trouble
Wednesday?
As if we don't have enough on our
plate watching the markets get ready to implode, we notice the
linguistic prediction about "Veterans take over national monument"
may be shaping up
with word circulating on the 'net that a Veterans group is planning
to shut down IRS on Wednesday!
If this is the linguistic event
expected, it's a little early and I'm not sure IRS would fit the
descriptor 'national monument'. We'll know by the outcome.
If the protesters find that the PTB won't move against them, then
this would be the event. On the other hand, if the PTB/LEO's
come along and arrest everyone and there's little media play, then
the main event is still further long the timeline.
You Tubed
China has blocked access to YouTube because of the Tibet violence
videos that are popping up despite the Chinese state repression
efforts.
I know what you're thinking:
"China
has sealed off the capital of Tibet and the protest is spreading to
other provinces! Why isn't the US doing anything about
this calamity?"
The answer is really quite
simple: Scroll back up to the part where China has us by the
economic goanies over Bear Stearns deal points and oh, yeah, let's
not forget Tibet doesn't sit on 11% of the world's oil reserves.
Want more? What about the plans of the Elites to go to Beijing
for the upcoming Olympics? "Don't
Boycott the Olympics over Tibet" says the IOC.
Yeah, sure, you betcha: Am
I the only one noticing that Freedom is only defensible lately where
there's really some corpgov asset at risk like bank bailout money,
oil, media rights, yada yada yada...
Capiche?
Foiled
Assassination?
Seem Vladimir Putin's luck held out again. Buried by
MSM...
Curious:
Why would Dick Cheney make an unannounced visit to Iraq? Timing
is curious given the booting of Admiral Fallon last week...and the
war drums being beaten by the neocons. HR agenda looking for a
replacement maybe? Hmmm...
Curiouser
Conservative won in Iran, although there's some speculation that the
new parliament may rein in the president / nuke builders there.
And
what election would be complete these days without questions about
voter fraud, even in Iran.
And Curiouser
So, a bomb going off in Pakistan
doesn't normally get my attention.
But, the fact that four FBI agents were wounded has me wondering
what else is going on behind that headline.
Some Good
News
A ban on plastic grocery bags is being talked about some places.
Perhaps we will get back to the days when I was six years old, when
we'd walk to the store with a could of canvas shopping bags and
carry groceries home in them.
---
One other bit of gold news?
Shell's annual report out today says the oil giant is replacing
reserves faster than depletion. Plans to spend nearly
$27-billion in capex this year.
Thanks For
All The Fish
Sadly, the linguistics about
poisoned oceans/fisheries collapse are now arriving.
"Federal
officials consider Pacific salmon fishing ban" because of
exceptionally small runs this year, reports KOMO-TV in Seattle.
As the soundtrack to Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy puts it: "So
long and thanks for all the fish..."
Weekly
Planner
My commodity broker's clearing
firm sent out the plan for the week which should be close to right:
Thursday, March 20
CME
Group Floor: 12:00 close: Foreign exchange and interest rate
contracts Regular close: Equity, commodity,
GSCI, metals, weather, and housing contracts
GLOBEX 3:15 close: Foreign exchange and interest rate contracts
Regular close: Equity, commodity,
GSCI, metals, weather, and housing contracts
NYMEX/COMEX Floor: Regular close
NYMEX Electronic Trading and Clearport Regular close
NYBOT/ICE Regular close
OneChicago Regular close
NYSE Regular close
Friday, March 21 CME Group Floor: Closed
GLOBEX Closed
NYMEX/COMEX Floor: Closed
NYMEX Electronic Trading and Clearport Closed
NYBOT/ICE Closed
OneChicago Closed
NYSE Closed
Just as
a wild guess, after what seems ahead this week, we'll need a
three-day weekend to recover.
---
snip and save section ---
Coping:
Worthless Gift Cards
Oh, oh.
You know those gift cards you may have been collecting around the
house?
A big surge in retailers going bankrupt has made a lot of gift
cards worthless reports NPR.
Is your
Garden In Yet?
A friend of mine is putting up a
new heritage/heirloom seed site - should have a link up to it this
week. I plan to fire up the roto-tiller this week.
Buying Stored
Foods
A note from a reader worth
repeating:
"Hi George:
Ag research is what I do. This will
be a problem.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19425983.700-billions-at-risk-from-wheat-superblight.html
"
OK, this blight talk goes back to 2007, but the headlines about a
"Newly Discovered Fungus Threatens World Wheat Crop is making
headlines now...
With the real 'sailing off the edge of
the world' not due until October 5-8, we're planning to take any
meager profits from trading and roll them into things like food,
ammo, solar panels, medicines, and investment grade diesel (off-road
diesel with preservative/stabilizer added).
Peoplenomics
Subscriber Note
If you are planning to take part
in the "Camping In" project (see
below) this coming weekend, a reader with some experience in
natural gas offers this advice:
"George, I think your idea of
"camping in," is a great idea, however, I would warn people not
to turn off their gas, at least here in California. Most
Californians have been taught to use a crescent wrench to turn
off the gas during an earthquake, only is they smell gas. It can
take months for the utility companies to restore gas to a
building. "
A couple of readers wonder if
doing such a project on Easter weekend is a good idea. That's
a matter of personal choice. Good Friday is on what day?
And Easter is on Sunday. Unless your plans include precooking
a lot of food Saturday, seemed like it would work out, but
you're welcome to postpone it.
Another
reader offers this...
George:
In your one day survival test
instructions you need to give the turn on instructions for gas.
Most homes now days do not have appliances with a pilot light.
Somebody might and may not have the technical knowledge to know
what to do when just turning the gas on. Most pilot devices do
have a safety monitor/thermal couple, to ensure that the gas
does not flow without a lit pilot. But still.. the oven could
fill with gas.
We just completed the 10 week CERT
(Community Emergency Response Training) course. In the training
we were told to let the gas company turn on the gas after the
emergency is over.
Your criteria are pretty stiff. I
presume you are looking at people with no preps at all. I went
through what you are proposing about 8 years ago when an ice
storm hit us. I live on 4 wooded acres at the foothills of the
North GA mountains. 5 miles from town. My preps then included a
5K generator, 20 gals of gas, two cars with half full gas tanks.
500 gal, buried propane tank, half full. A woodstove in a
concrete walk out basement. One chainsaw. Had enough food for a
month at least. I was not a ham then. It took me 3 days to chain
saw my way out of my 200' drive. The poles were down. trees all
over the road. The lashed telephone cable on the ground still
worked during the week. My desktop computer would not work
because the CyberPower1000AVR, I found out later, only worked
with a pure Sine wave AC generator. Mine was the fake kind.
However, my work laptop worked. I ran the gen in the
morning/noon and evening for 2 hours each time to keep the
fridge cool. run propane water heater which needs ac to control.
I was stuck for 5 days. By then, essentially ran out of gas..did
not pump gas out of cars. Had slept more.
Yesterday, watching out for all the
tornados on tvee, Lightning hit a dead pine tree 50 ft from the
house. We thought the basement exploded from the bang... the tv
satellite went off only...the GFI popped. reset it every thing
worked in the house. At the time, my 2m YAESU was on but running
on a deep cycle battery with a mag antenna on a popcorn can!
I will try what you propose, We do
have one of those French handpush coffee things..never used yet.
That's the whole point - shut everything
down with no planning and see how it goes, with the idea of finding
what you want that you don't presently have with the adrenalin rush
of a storm or earthquake to cloud your thinking.
Send snip and save ideas - anything that
would be useful in preparing for whatever is next, or coping with the
crapstorm of stuff along the way: send to
george@ure.net
