Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE) 
This page is also mirrored here and may be available unblocked in some corp/gov offices

Thinly Vialed Threat?

A curious story is arising  out of Las Vegas where a bit of the deadly poison ricin was found late week, in a room most recently occupied by a 57-year old man.  The curious part, however, is that the headlines are now sprouting up about how runs and an anarchist book were among the items found with the ricin.

One other curious thing: The man who is in a coma today in Las Vegas apparently has been in Spring Valley hospital in Vegas since February 14th.

Those who are familiar with Robert Hitt's theory that "energies have to go somewhere" would perhaps cynically note that it's curious the ricin found in Vegas story would go mainstream the same day the Dow drops almost 316 points. 

Coincidence?  How many do you need?

Markets: Looking Ahead

I talked to my friend Robin Landry (rlandy@allegiance.tv)  who runs his own shop up in Shawnee Oklahoma as the market was limping toward the close on Friday to see what he thinks is going on.

"George, I think we're seeing the completion of a fifth wave down, and from there we could get one more blow-off top," observed Landry.  "If that's the case, we might go down and test lows on Monday or Tuesday before turning upward..."

No, this is not investment advice, but if I was playing stock options, rather than playing in the more Fed-intervention-resistant commodities market, it might sure be tempting on weakness Monday/Tuesday to load up with short term index options on early week lows and ride a nice pop as the short-sellers cover toward Triple Witching hours March 20/21.  Would that be an interesting trade?  I mean if you were willing to lose every dime you tried on it, that is.  That kind of options play works out once in a while but often enough in my past experience that thoughts like this crop up from time-to-time.  THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - I AM NOT DOING THIS TRADE.  IF YOU DO -->YOU'RE NUTS<---. 

Could Triple Witch be the slaughter of the bears, though?  Maybe... on the other hand, when the Dow's RSI drops down toward 25 Monday or Tuesday, that might be an interesting time to bottom fish - but again, this is not advice. 

Mass Layoffs Question

The government's new release about mass layoffs seems reassuring this week:

"In January, employers took 1,438 mass layoff actions, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer; the number of workers involved totaled 144,111, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The number of mass layoff events in January 2008 increased by 5 from the prior month, while the number of associated initial claims increased by 2,361. The number of initial claims due to mass layoffs have increased for five consecu- tive months. In January, 427 mass layoff events were reported in the manufac- turing sector, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 55,488 initial claims. Over the month, mass layoff activity in manufacturing decreased by 35 events, and initial claims decreased by 2,620."

Let me take a sip of cynic juice.  OK, check it out:

What was it Mark Twain said about statisticians?  Oh yeah, here it is...

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

Speaking of Twain

There's a wonderful quote attributed to Twain, but which may have originated elsewhere:

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain."

And I mention this why?  Well, the bankers are printing themselves up another $60-billion to auction to (who else?) themselves in March.

Of course, I could point out that of $41.132 billion of required reserves, by the nations big banks, $17.259 billion are borrowed.  Why, of course they need to print and borrow more!

Quick math note:  Remember when the H.3 report says 'non-borrowed' and the number shown is negative, you can just erase the 'non' on one side of the equation and wipe out the minus sign on the other, such that a "non-borrowed" minus (negatively signed) number equals   borrowed (positive signed) number.

Such obfuscation is a delight to read, however, because it is so totally in keeping with their propensity to call DEBT something else: CREDIT.  So when youi read the next Consumer Credit report (G.19) when it comes out in a week or so, remember it's DEBT to you and your family, remember the bankers, licking their chops at the prospect of the diluting the money you're paid for your hard work, they are your CREDITors.

Ure's Axiom 107:  "Debt is the noose that ties you to the treadmill."

Judge Gets Sensible

The website www.wikileaks.org  is back online thanks to a review of the free ,speech disaster decision that took the whole site off line after a foreign bank objected to what was claimed to be sensitive information stolen by a former employee.  Vigilance about our Rights pays off? 

Ramping Up War

Deaths are mounting in the Gaza - a story which hasn't been getting much play in US MSM. 

Strategic question remains: Will Israel attack the sources of those rockets being launched at it?  That would be where?  Syria and Iran, maybe?

---

Turkey claims to be withdrawing from northern Iraq.

Tied Hands

Meantime, I continue to be aghast at the political decisions that keep our military from doing its job.  Here's the headline that set me off:  "US: Afghan drug trade funds Taliban"  And "Afghan poppy production few to record in '07"

Now, you and I know that someone, somewhere, in the US military would call BS on this:  It takes about 2-seconds to figure out that if you want to wipe out the Taliban, you burn the opium crop.  No go, and they're no go.  SOMEWHERE someone is tying hands, I expect.

But, then again, maybe it's just a scaled up version of how the booze lobbies have scuttled NORML's efforts because it would threaten revenue, huh?

Secrets Revealed:  A WH Resignation

A WH official has quit after admitting to plagiarism.  Copy this: Secret Revealed rolls on.

---

Speaking of jobs open in the WH:  They're less one hurricane recovery coordinators, too.

First of the Blackouts

The source of the Florida blackout this week is said to be human error, says Florida Power.  But, it's not over - more of this power-shortage/disrupts economy is still ahead this year. 

--- snip and save section ---

Write something up - get published - send it to george@ure.net.  Just about anything that would help people cope with life a little better - thanks

--- end snip and save ---

Around the Ranch: Busy!!!

Weekend projects:

• Power outlet at chicken coop

• Clean chicken coop

• Clean goat barn

• Dispose of cardboard boxes that arrived this week

• Mow 5-acres of land with the bush hog

• Write Peoplenomics on buying land

• Enter new Peoplenomics subscribers

• Install new AC unit in office

• Pay bills

• Change software backup settings, move disk partitions

• Fix riding mower to keep running when I tow small trailer around picking up yard debris before first mowing (2-3 weeks off)

• Install bug proofing in shop (5-hour project)

• Help Elaine cut and install decorative arch for house

• Replace drippy faucet outside

• Put medicated block out for goats

• Install gate to new pasture

• Grease bucket bearings on tractor (every 10-hours of use)

• Vacuum shop

• Burn fence weeds at garden, prep to till

• Order seeds for garden...

• Organize income tax

• Download latest bank statements into QuickBooks

• Write at least 4-pages on the novel I'm working on

• Finish update to client tequila site...

• Put out Snake-A-Way

• Bug spray foundations...

What am I doing still writing?  Bye until Monday!

Friday February 29, 2008

The Personal Income Myth

Maybe the guys at Myth Busters could take on government stats some time:  Here's the latest from the government:

"Personal income increased $32.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.9 billion, or 0.4 percent. In December, personal income increased $54.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $46.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $32.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates."

All of which sounds rosy until you get into the details:

"The January change in personal income was boosted by several special factors. Bonus payments and gains on the exercise of stock options boosted private wage and salary disbursements; pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel boosted government wage and salary disbursements; and cost-of-living adjustments to several federal transfer payment programs boosted personal current transfer receipts. The January change was reduced by a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments, annual adjustments to personal contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction in calculating personal income), and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $27.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, in January, after increasing $47.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, in December. These special factors are discussed more fully below. "

The real train wreck is in the personal savings rate.  This is horrible:

"Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $6.2 billion in January, compared with a negative $8.2 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.1 percent in January, the same percentage as in December. Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on "Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's flow of funds accounts an