Satellites and Memeering

A couple of "expert" readers have checked in with additional thoughts on the US spy satellite which the government is about to start shooting at.  One reader officers this on the use of plutonium onboard such craft:

"Plutonium 238 is/was used as a primary fuel in spy satellites. The hydrazine story is a smokescreen. Pu238 decays so fast (88-yr half-life) it is used to produce thermoelectricity by a process that boils a liquid and the condensation of the liquid (mercury used to be used) creates a thermal-gradient voltage. Two immense plants were under construction a couple of years ago, I believe either in Idaho or Montana to produce kilograms of Pu238 . As I remember these plants would need many tons of purified uranium in special reactors to produce kilograms of the stuff. It has no use except in satellites or on long-term space shots. The Russians were experimenting with Pu241, which is a beta emitter having a half-life of only 14 years, but it was literally “too hot to handle” except, maybe, as a weapon. Bulk grams of Pu238 are red hot for years. Pu241 is difficult to produce and forms hot plasma but its powerful beta emissions made its oxide as a coating a candidate for electrodes in satellite batteries.

A microgram of any of the Pu species lodged in a lung can produce cancer from both or either chemical and radioactive reactions."

Now to say that the hydrazine angle is a 'smokescreen' may sound like a strong claim, but another reader, an Alabama chemical engineer with some training in such things, send along some interesting information about it (such as price) here as well as offering this to the time monks and me:

"Fellows: I have some experience with hydrazine in it's many uses. It was commonly used to add to the condensate return lines in steam boilers at power plants. It's structure is H2-N-N-H2 (two hydrogen bonded to each nitrogen). It wants to break down into H2 and N2 where the N-N is a very stable triple bond, as in the 79% of air that is nitrogen. When added to boiler water, it carries over into the steam, and then to the condensed steam, where it reacts with any CO2 absorbed from the air. The CO2 forms carbonic acid that eats out the condensate return piping, that recovers the water for reuse. Without the recovery the cost of water skyrockets. Because it is flammable and corrosive to skin and eyes, it is not commonly used anymore.

I am wondering, if the toxic effects are so high, why there was not more outcry and noticeable effects when the two space shuttles came down. The first had a full tank of everything, and I believe was either LiqH2+LiqO2 powered or H4N2+O2 powered.

I have attached the Material Safety Data Sheets for Hydrazine (anhydrous, with desiccants added to absorb all the water) and Hydrazine Hydrate (with absorbed water in the molecule) . All have the same skin absorption tox data, of about 500-600 Mg/Kg for 4 hours. This is a pretty high air concentration. The tank is about 1000 lbs, and the specific gravity if the same as water, so it has the same density as water, which is 62.4 lbs/ft3. This means we are dealing with about 16 cu. Ft. or about 120 gallons. This is not a very big volume spill, especially when you look at the air volume into which it is dispersed, and realize that the stuff reacts spontaneously with water. When it touches the humidity in the air, it will degrade into N2 and O2 and water, all innocuous stuff. If it did not react, the volume you are releasing it into is such that it will never reach the odor detectible limit (3.7 ppm, before the nose knows, says the MSDS).

Even if it is a school-bus sized tank of nothing but hydrazine, it is not going to be that concentrated when it gets to ground level. And look at the section 6 and section 8 of the MSDS's, the instructions for cleanup of small and large spills. All that is required for small is dilute with water and mop up. Larger spills require vapor protection and ignition protection. The stuff will burn even when dissolved in water, at high enough concentrations. But when you back up and look at the hype and breathless reporting, as George has noted, is this a problem or is it something the PTB want us to focus on so we do not look at the real problem. As you note below, this stuff will just burn in the air, and is not going to affect anyone on the ground.

I am thinking that the hydrazine is the "curtain" and they are waving it because they want us to ignore the "little man" behind it. There is something on that satellite that the PTB do not want recovered by anyone other than themselves on the ground, and so they will destroy it before it comes down in a place they cannot control, or in pieces large enough to be identified on the ground. And that thing is not hydrazine.

PU is fatal chronically (over long periods of exposure, causing cancer) in the concentration of one PU atom for a cubic foot of air. Literally, if you inhale one PU atom, ever, you are a goner. So that material could be a panic inducer if it is on board. But this is usually used only for extra-system space travel, not orbits. So is it some other material or data on board. What images was this thing transmitting? Planet X? Asteroid?

(name withheld)

PE, Chemical Engineer Birmingham, AL"

All of which is interesting, to say the least ()along with how my email now gives me the message that it wants to "connecting to server" for something or other (PU references probably trigger at least some electronic monitoring - and perhaps with good cause.

Nevertheless, as I explained last Monday, there's this little matter of 'memeering' on the internet as a way to prepare the public for what comes next - and here's an email that goes exactly to the point:

"Dear Mr Ure,

Regarding your discussion today (Friday) on UrbanSurvival about the planned 6 Mar 08 shoot-down of the "spy satellite". I noted a couple of interesting tidbits that, assuming you don't already know, you might like to hear.

First is the fact that the concerns you posted came out on at least one MSM message board (MSNBC) A FULL DAY before you or any of the alternative news sites (that I read) discussed it. That is unusual to say the least! Normally, it's at least two days (more like 4 months in the case of the housing meltdown) after alternative sites break news before posters catch on to the "there's more than meets the eye" items. Moreover, the concerns expressed matched yours nearly exactly, right down to the question of why the fuel is being emphasized so much. Most tellingly, no two well-known posters jumped in to degenerate serious discussion of current events into the "You're a stupid bloviating cow/No, you are!" diversions that are predictable almost down to the number of posts it takes for them to appear. Seems as if "someone" really does want those questions to catch on?!

Second, a poster over at the Surfing the Apocalypse website pointed out something interesting. 6 Mar 08 is a Gregorian date....in the Julian calendar, the date would be 22 Feb 08. Not sure, but I seem to recall you mentioning that date before (?). Since I live very much in the zone you mapped today, I plan on not being there sometime prior to then!"

There's lots of other traffic showing up on the net is postings - and since the time monks report they have deployed the spyders to go start sweeping discussion groups and fora for data that will freed the forthcoming ALTA 1308 report - the volume of stuff crossing modelspace will likely increase.

There's some comfort in the idea that the current satellite track seems to take if over central Alaska down to  Rio de Janeiro, but that's right now -with 10 days to go and no telling what precession and Navy missile file will be doing to that.

---

The NY Times reports today that "Missile Defense Future May Turn on Success of Mission to Destroy Satellite" - something we wish the 'Nebraska Navy" all the luck in the world with.

But, because we have all the language in modelspace (not to mention some geographic descriptors in modelspace which *may or may NOT* mean something), we'll just start tracking a few Google news hits on keywords like "famine" and "shortage" in a short term index for Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend.

War Clock

As developments in the Middle East continue pointing toward increasing tensions, I got an email from (yet a third reader) that goes some ways down the 'what's going on' behind the curtains idea:

George,

I was just thinking to myself what a coincidence it is that the Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to launch on Feb. 17 and this corresponds to the timing of the "shoot out in space" coming from the military on the satellite just a few days later. Is it just me or does this start bells and whistles to go off in other peoples mind too. The Iranian Oil Bourse will not being trading oil in the USD. Just like Sodom Hussein was going to do just before we took him out. Oh, did I mention Hugo Chavez doesn't want the USD either or North Korea and they are all now part of the axis of evil too. Are we truly fighting to protect the American people from the radical Islamic or are we fighting to protect the USD and we all know who this involves, the Federal Reserve System Inc. owners.

Of course, we can't forget that missing nuclear bomb from the unauthorized flight over the U.S. where there was supposed to be 6, but only 5 are accounted for. Something is going on here!

It seems that the Federal Reserve Inc. owners are using our military for their own agenda and we have to pay for it via the income tax/enslavement. Of course, they are only protecting us U.S. citizens from the axis of evil/terrorists. Hog wash!!! When they launch that missile to take out the satellite we all just might want to bend over, put our heads between our legs and then kiss our asses goodbye. The great Mogambo Guru just might be right when he says, "We are all freaking doomed"!!!

---

 That's it for me, I'm headed for the frig. for a jigger of a new found beverage, Pomegranate Liqueur which is quite tasty, then a walk out side on this clear night in west central Illinois to look for those UFO's that are suppose to be showing up anytime now to save our sorry butts."

No need to get testy (or drunk) about it.  We still have the UN working this fall on getting the mass of humans ready for the 'contract' meme, and in the meantime, we still have the soaring tensions, soaring oil prices, and (stick around a few weeks) new war to deal with.

---

In Denmark, we have newspapers reprinting those cartoons, offensive to Muslims for they mockery of the Prophet.  The headlines that "Danish Youths riot for sixth-night" are about as close to a non-surprise as you'll find.

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Then, a little closer to where the fighting will soon break out, we read that "Hamas, Jihad vows revenge after killing of 8 people in Gaza."

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Then, as Israel is moving troops to the North and East, we read how (near that border, Iran and Syria are teaming up to find the killer(s) of the Hama leader assassinated this week.

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Against this background, my profits in short-term oil options were only a return of 400-some percent (or a gain of 300-some percent, if you want to talk gain only).  And, I'm not the only guy playing it. Widely swinging prices in oil have been just a gift to commodity gunslingers, and the meek and mild-mannered types like me.

As we get a little closer to satellite 'down time' no doubt the internet hysteria about such things will build, speculation about famine seems likely to increase, and the national chewed fingernail index seems likely to head up.

Never one to look a gift headline in the mouth, I waded back into wheat call options at the end of the week, disappointed that my Friday to Thursday statements reflected a mere 19.375% increase for 4/5th of the week.  Maybe it'll look better this morning when the new statement comes in.

The Runs: Russian into Things

"At a minimum, a head of state should have a head".  No, not a surly morning around here - a comment on what's-her-name from Vlad Putin.

Where's That Football?

In Africa, presumably with Mr. and Mrs. Decider doing a little world tour.  Racking up of mileage awards on Air Force One, maybe?

Headline of the Day Award

To the Chicago Sun-Times for this gem:  "Gunman "somewhat erratic'.  No sh*t?

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This being "Wrong Problem Week" a reader offers (correctly) that "The problem isn't the guns.  It's the drugs that corppharma is pushing on everyone."  Well, duh.

Nothing to Sneeze At

The CDC Flu map...

Sorry State of Affairs

As I pointed out in the Tuesday report, seemed to me that Australia saying "So Sorry!" for wrecking a perfectly decent continent and destroying first people's and their cultural heritage wouldn't be sufficient. 

Two points today.  1) The aboriginals are planning to sue the invaders (* some of my own family surname are actually in history books there, but t'weren't me) and 2) The reason that first peoples are an appreciating resource is  that the generational learning of everyone from Alaska natives, to North American first peoples and the Aboriginals (not to overlook half of Africa while we're at it) is incredibly valuable because they folks got along without high def TV and Vista.  Think we might be able to learn a little something from them? Communicating over long distances without texting and a monthly bill? OMG these folks are dangerous!  Eating without a credit card?  TEOTWAWKI! Get real...

"Wrong Problem Week" Capper

I started off Monday with a rant about how our "leaders" (using the term loosely!) have a marvelous way of solving the wrong problem.

Today, we have an EU executive calling for a European Border Patrol and biometric ID'ing of people going to the EU

Clearly, the EU has figured ouit that if the US can keep economically afloat by pouring money like mad into "security" and stun guns, then in order to ensure the same kind of economic growth in the EU, they need to whip up a little more 'terrorism fear', invade a few more countries, and do a little more back-room germ warfare development.

The underlying problem of too many people fighting over too few resources has an inevitable outcome: Dying oceans, oil past peak, and a corpgov economic system that exploits labor wage rate differentials for the benefit of the owner class (which we call around here the PTB) are but a few examples.

Those who believe in the myth of the Singularity seem delightfully ignorant of Third World dynamics. But, I suppose that's OK.  Denial is doing its job keeping the markets afloat (for now).

A Hero Steps Aside

As a recovering news manager, I don't have a lot of heroes  Sadly, one of my remaining few, David Walker, US Comptroller General, is stepping aside at the Government Accountability Office.  His next mountain:  A foundation to alert the public to the problems of the financial soundness of the US - in debt to the rest of the world for something like $53 trillion already and more coming thanks to a snoozing CONgress stampeded past thinking by staged events.

---

Too often I've seen what were initially people of high integrity turned to trained pets of the powers-that-be or simply raw cash.  Walker's been one of those refreshing exceptions.

It will be a sure sign of our honesty and integrity as a nation to see what kind of replacement is nominated for Walker's position.  Unfortunately, I'm not holding my breath.

No Snip and Save

Just too much going on around here today - but keep sending suggestions to george@ure.net and I will get another update on Monday.

Reader Reminders

A few important reminders

• Remember that this site is updated every morning 6-days a week at 8 AM Texas time (or by 8:15 if you want the most glaring errors corrected).  If you're not seeing the updates daily, hit the "Refresh key" on your browser (the F-5 key in Internet Exploder).  This was brought to my attention by my very sharp neighbor who didn't realize that I had written something since Feb. 7th.

• We have a pretty decent continuously updated headline scanner at www.independencejournal.com

• And, the daily report posted here is also posted at www.independfejouirnal.com/today.htm.  Two reasons for that:  UrbanSurvival is blocked in a lot of places by corporate 'security features' (work, don't think devices) and two, in the event one server farm goes down for any reason (like the sky falling, say) there will still be a way to find out what we've been able to piece together as going on about the planet.

• Nest Saturday morning, I'm planning another  "Urban Survival Ham Net" meeting on the 40 meter band.  Frequency to be announced later on.  That new 2 KW linear amplifier I rebuilt/redesigned a bit is doing a wonderful job...

Around the Ranch: SOHO Improvements

Managing 3 (or more sometimes) computers and 5 to 7 monitors going has become a bit much.  Adding a KVM switch and a FTA satellite TV to the monitoring center here.  Along with a computer-controlled receiver (which is the nth back up of all the other electronics in here).

The new wireless laser printer will replace the one sitting where more monitors can go... They're fairly cheap now and simple enough to install (I hope!).

When all is done, I expect to have just five LCD's at the main work position.  One three monitor laptop for client consulting, web site, and email, while a second laptop will handle wireless cams around the property, the USB TV, network admin, and the USB controlled shortwave monitor.

Does any of this sound like work?  LOL  Not hardly!

Friday February 15, 2007

And still another Update

Date March 6

OK, OK, told you this wasn't a precise science we're doing.  We've been focusing on March 3-5 in modelspace for the satellite impacting, and now turns out it's March 6....sorry to be off a day.  Shucks...

Yet another Update

Universe Slaps Us Again: Bhopal Documentary Tonight

A couple of readers have asked "Woa, just checked the link out for Bhopal…is this just coincidence that I happened to be checking out the Documentary channel?"  (Link to: "Bhopal: Search for Justice 9 PM Eastern tonight...)

No, in a closed system all things are linked, if only at levels below perception threshold.  No, it was not on our minds (remember we've been watching this for a month and a half in modelspace and scratching about it... still, ain't synchronicity synchronistic when it happens?)
 

Web bot's "Military Bhopal" Linguistics

"CNN's Video"

As Michael Griffin, NASA Administrator says in a CNN video today: "So there is almost nothing we can do here that makes it worse..."  Click for video and go 2:10 in...

No, the general's hands are shaking....

And we also have a concurrent "Catastrophic Contamination Threat" story popping up out of Colorado - which may have to do with the linguistics about Southwest Flooding...

Reach for the Sky, Partner

Shooting at the LEO (*low earth orbit) coral, maybe?  The story that the US is planning to shoot down an errant spy satellite gives us an excellent example of how word shift around the internet can be used as a sort of 'time machine' to get a handle on coming events before the fact. 

Because of the strange way the story is developing, I've been in touch with the time monks about this to get their take on this, since we've been watching it develop in model space for more than a month.  The radical linguistic group at www.halfpasthuman.com sent out an extraordinary email to their subscribers last night, which specifically pointed to their January 13th, 2008 forecast reproduced with exclusive permission here;  (*If you repost this elsewhere fine, but a link to this page as well as www.halfpasthuman.com is required.)

"Salve omnes,

just a quick note to keep everyone up to the moment on the recent developments.

 

Below is from Part Three of the 1008 series [1/13/2008], from the Meta Arts discussion area. In this extract, the time frame is [near the equinox]. Below is the extracted and pertinent paragraph:

 

************* Begin extract *************

The [expenditure/waste] of these resources will bring the common fellow to the conclusion that the [world/planet/rulers] have [gone mad]. It is this level of details which suggest that some of the [wandering cognitively disconnected mentally afflicted people], previously described in other parts of this and earlier ALTA series, will come about as a result of both [natural], and [artificial/created] circumstances. In the detail layers we note support for the [naturally broken minds] as well as for [machine crashed brains].

 

This last is repeatedly supported by lower layers of aspect/attribute sets going to the idea of a [military accident] in which [energies] will be [unleashed] that are described as [crashing/thrashing/mashing/pulverizing minds].

 

The details on the [military accident] show that it is not terrorism, but will rather be viewed as the "Bhopal" of the [military industrial complex].

 

Apparently the effects will be widespread, and devastating for any number of reasons. The soon to appear [tragedy] will *not* really be the result of the [specific circumstances] proffered after the incident, but rather is the predictable result of going down that particular path. In spite of the horrific nature of the damage inflicted, the result *will* have positive outcomes on millions of lives globally as the subsequent actions by those impacted will put an end to many such [bad paths] currently being followed.

 

In a way similar to the [veterans seize national monument] (*ahead this summer in modelspace - G) , this [military accident] will be able to be used as very large temporal marker for the manifestation of both the [revolution] meme out in the open here in the USofA, as well as the 'last act' of the 'illuminati'.

 

There are further ramifications which ripple out from the [military mind crushing accident], and these will include triggering pressures which result in a coup of sorts within the ThePowersThatBe.

 

This [palace coup] will involve [assassination], but it may be made to appear to be other than [murder]. At least temporarily.

 

*************End extract*************

 

Please note the language around the 'military Bhopal' description. Then examine the article at the link below. You may have to cut and paste it to fit in the browser, but well worth the reading.

 

Many of our key linguistic sets are represented within this article....especially about the 'risk to humans'.

 

While we are still more concerned about PU (plutonium) over the hydrazine...(and we both wonder ...wouldn't hydrazine just blow itself up and burn up once the re-entry got hot enough?), still the fact that the military is releasing this info is

*not* a good sign. Then that they are considering doing this (*shoot-down) is also *NOT* a good sign. It says they are a whole lot more scared about this than they are letting on. Soooo since they are deliberately downplaying this, *but* are also letting out a lot of our linguistics, we are of the opinion that the [military Bhopal] may well be in our immediate future, a mere 12/twelve or so days away... (*11 as of this morning- G)

 

And we also now need to consider that the 'military mind crushing accident' *could* possibly be a large, and errant EMP which crushes the 'machine minds' which run things for us lazy ass humans. Hmmm. Sure wish we knew what the hell we were talking about then so that we would know it now....

 

vale, and panic napping and pie eating is

*probably* a good idea....

 

clif and a very concerned Igor *(he used to work for the AF and knows just how screwed up the military thinking really has become).

 

"Wired" external link: Pentagon Unveils Rogue Spy Sat Shoot-down Plan.

Although we are loathe to putting push-pins on maps, and routinely throw away upwards of 20-million geographical references per data collection run, there are two points about this which have been curious to watch.  The first is that if we were to take linguistics and map out where the 'hot zone' of language around this event is, we have highest concentrations linguistically like this :

*depending on your zoom level, these are straight lines - the curve is greater circle effects.

On the other hand, we know from past experiences using language shift on the internet as a 'libretto by which to anticipate future events' that the hot language area is the most far-flung of speculations.  Still, gives monkey mind something to do.

What's not a matter of speculation, however is that:

1. The military has an errant satellite coming down (modelspace put it March 3-5, but we shall see).

2. There's something on the craft that causes huge amounts of worry about danger to humans/things on the ground should it come down in an uncontrolled way.

3. Although hydrazine is officially cited, we note that hydrazine's closed cup flash point is a mere 37.78 C (closed cup).  Such temperatures might be  easily be exceeded in re-entry.

4. On the other hand, our resident hydrazine fuel cell specialist tells us that a small (<3 gms.) heater element of plutonium (238, not 239) is noted in the public literature as being used to allow 'cold restarts' of such fuel cells.  It's cold in space.

5. And, last but not least, whatever the risk is, it's great enough such that the military is willing to throw up more hardware to get control of whatever the problem is.

I should put a sign up in my office someplace that reads: "When someone says 'Don't Worry' you should do exactly that.  Instead, I just might buy batteries for the field survey meter.  Who knows, maybe that duct tape and plastic might end up being useful for something after all.

Other ways to connect these dots?  Why, even my normal conservative attorney is sending me notes about this along the same line:

"George,

Pardon me for pointing out the obvious ... but something just doesn't add up with this "shooting down" of the US spy satellite.

That thing weighs about 20,000 pounds MAX. When the Russian MIR came down it weighed about 10 to 12 times that, and very very little of it was not burned up.

Why go to all the trouble to SHOOT AT IT (which will merely scatter it and create massive amounts of space debris that everything else that goes up later will have to contend with?

Logic says something VERY fishy is going on here!! particularly since they say if they don't get it the first time they will TRY AGAIN!!

WHAT is on that "spy" satellite that it is so important that they get destroyed? Or is it a "spy" satellite at all? ... or something else entirely with it doing a little spying so as to be a cover story (remember about 20 years or so ago the Howard Hughes' ship for "mining the minerals of the deep ocean" that was really built to pull up the sunk Russian Sub?).

I guess I have just been in the Legal Business too long to take any far fetched story that doesn't make logical sense as the gospel. Usually they are just a cover story for hiding the real story that is somewhere underneath.

Anyway ... strange stuff going on wrt that "?Spy?" satellite. (and could that be why Russian bombers have now done runs directly over aircraft carriers of ours TWICE in the last week after not doing anything like that for YEARS? Russia is sending the US a "message" about that satellite that is about to crash? saying don't you even think about allowing it to come down in our territory?)"

--------

Words have remarkable powers - as Jane Fonda was reminded this week.

We had an incident a few weeks back with the chemical smoke/inversion over that patch of West Virginia, and given that there's a certain fractal aspect of time studies, we've labeled that event as a possible fractal 'prequel'. 

The sequel doesn't have to actually appear, by the way.  It only has to be much talked about in MainStreamMedia (MSM).  No doubt we've got that in spades already.  But down at the 'archetypes will tell you if you listen to them' level, the 'military Bhopal' language is as close to congruence with the dots in modelspace as could be found. 

I expect that something about this will be more than virtual or purely a bespoken fear.  Hopefully not of Bhopal proportions.   Time will eventually tell because clearly, government won't. 11-days - are you counting yet?

Hitt Theory, II

Remember the Robert Hitt theory I was mentioned a week or two back, the one that says when things are about to pile on in a bad way for the PowersThatBe, an almost predictable 'emotion-grabbing' shock headline appears to redirect energy?

After drooping 175-points yesterday (and a mixed open this morning), the shooting at North Illinois University seems eerily like the Virginia Tech shooting, only this time seven people died including the gunman.

Hitt's notion, that somehow outbursts/outrages like this are somehow at a societal level more like a giant pressure relief valve, deserves continued observation and contemplation.  As does the concept of  memeering explained last week (*click here and scroll down to the Feb. 4 column).

Food Fight

An excited YM message from my hyper-active commodity broker pal JB at 3:30 this morning caught my eye.  "Coffee up 600 at the moment in the night session!"

Yeah, well, a libretto is a nice thing to have. and between coffee, wheat and maybe some corn later on at some point, we've been watching the development of the shortage/encounters with scarcity coming summer of this year (*and way out into the future) with a kind of morbid fascination.

What's interesting is how the story is percolating (*bad coffee option pun intended) just below the perception threshold of most folks.  A really aware observer might read something like the Financial Times Insight piece: "The next crisis will be over food" and maybe take investment action. 

----

Perception tuning is a funny thing.  To use an electronics analogy it's just like a receiver has a 'noise floor' below which pulling out signals is very difficult.

Few people take the time and try to 'tune-in' their personal receiving abilities and sharpen up skills in deciphering what's down in the noise.  Once you get used to that, you'll be able to better understand how thinking go around here with other low noise receiver analogies like 'noise blanking', 'automatic gain control', and 'passband tuning'. 

Curious ain't it?  We know so much about designing an external receiver and yet with the exception of a few time monks with their massive (inverse) synthetic aperture antenna (*the internet), damn few folks are conscious/aware that what works for in radio receiver design might have a parallel in humans.   Like, duh.

---

Not that it matters:  In order to practice perception tuning, you need a relatively 'low noise' environment to begin with - perhaps why I've always been drawn to 'remote' spaces (like the sailboat and the remote ranch) when I wasn't engaged in formal "work".  I was constantly frustrated as the amount of 'noise' generated by daily life in the corporate fast track. I'm less a Luddite than a sensitive receiver frustrated with a high noise (saturation) environment. I suspect a lot of folks are, but just can't put it into technologically acceptable terms.

Few people I've met are consciously aware of how a clock and calendar are 'noise' in the sense that time is a bounding element of thought.  Similarly, we have bounces/fence posts imposed by the phone which can ring at any second, imagery fed into your mind by the television, and preconscious  messages in the form of lyrics in music that you somehow like, although you can't quiet understand the words. 

Trying to get down to a personal noise floor (*where the loudest signals from the Universe may be occasionally encountered) under those conditions is like trying to listen to a far away AM radio station with your personal receiver surrounded by noisy brush-type AC motors.  Try as you may, ambient noise will prevent reception of the weak signals such that after a time, you'll be more influenced by the pitch of the noisy, which depends on the speed of the motor.  That's how high-speed 'we all gotta be Type A' life goes.

Television, music, and the Starbucks at the airport culture, the speeding on the freeway; it's all a consciousness bounding analog to the old variable speed Kenmore sewing machine, which as a boy caused me innumerable 15-year old outbursts at my sisters when I was trying to work weak distant (DX) signals with my ham radio equipment as a boy.

In some kind of grand way, the 'sewing/sewing' seems largely now done, with the reaping/receiving part straight ahead.

---

But, I suppose you didn't come here for that kind of philosophical/contemplative discussion - so grab the coffee or tea and let's pop a cynical pill.  Since we have a broad-brush outline of the future going, that oughta be really easy.  Sensitive receivers are easily overloaded and (still) angered by the sowing (sic) machine...

War Watch: Hezbollah Warns

While we sit around waiting for the Israelis to launch a war against, take your pick of a) Syria, or b) Gaza, c) Iran, D) all of the above, which will be seen as the "Israeli mistake" [linguistically]  by future historians, we note that Hezbollah is issuing all kinds of warnings.

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I keep watching oil for a tradable pull-back.  Oil was down to $95 after an overnight rise.

My favorite 'war commodity' is copper and it was up 1.4% last time I looked.

The Runs: Foreign

Elections in Pakistan spark little fanfare says a report today.

Gee, I wonder why? Assassinate the credible challenger, and what's left?  The larger and more important question is "Is this a fractal prequel for events later this year here?"

The Runs: Domestic

Does anyone care that Romney endorses McCain?  Or that democorps are in a standoff over Florida?  No, I didn't think so.

The Bad in Chad

While the president of Chad has declared a state of emergency against rebel forces, there's a claim that Sudanese and al Qaeda members are among those captured.

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Seems to me the line to be considered here:  Is it militant Islam out to conquer the West, or is it the "Have nots" versus the "Haves"?  We'll know personally, soon enough, with the 28% interest rate banksters at the helm and being bailed out almost daily by the PTB.

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Coping: Memeering, III

I like the old joke "No, you're not paranoid, they really are out to get you."

In this case, as a follow-on to our report about Memeering last week (*A meme is a 'thought-virus' and the new vector of these is internet discussion groups), a reader suggested that it would be a fine thing if everyone who was partial aware would read the article in the UK "Independent" about "How the spooks too over the news."

Now, be a good victim and  don't walk away from that upside down mortgage and that 28% interest debt-card, OK?

How's Your Plumbing?

No, I'm not talking about the male panic induced by the sound of a snapping rubber glove, nor the female panic induced by frozen stirrups.  Nope, talking about the other plumbing - the stuff that gets the shower going. 

Remember my comments about "The George Ure All Time Plumbing Parts Collection" saved me this week?  Seems I'm not the only one:

"Yep. My dad owned and maintained rental units. I stopped by his place to check out his plumbing box:

T's, elbows, nipples, spigots all in 1/4, 1/2 3/4 and 1". Glue, plastic cleaner, 100 watt flood lamp in an aluminum shade, 100 ft of cord for the light, hair dryer (to thaw a frozen pipe), utility knife, hacksaw, sewer snake. Another box for copper plumbing. A few 10' lengths of cpvc in each diameter.

Pipe wrenches (a pair each of big and small) - one to grip, one to turn.

Misc heater parts, thermocouples, oil nozzles, etc. I never knew him to throw away a bolt or screw.

He never used the big box chains for supplies. He used a local plumbing supply house and got friendly with the owner. 8pm Sunday and need a water heater for a tenant? Call the owner of the store. Kept the owner of the store in mind at Christmas time with a bottle of good bourbon and a case of beer.

And he figured he was helping a good guy with his business in a local economy.

This saved his butt more than a few times."

Now we're talking.  I'd sure have a set of spares over everything by the end of September, as who knows what will happen to the supply chain after October's financial cluster what's-it.

Attention Speed Freaks

This is like the coolest online thing I've seen in a long time: "Speed Traps Worldwide Shown with Online Mapping Tool".  Didn't I tell you I'm a recovering Porsche driver and not a Luddite?  Now, how do I get my mobile connection to the map for cross-country use on I-20?  Yee haw!!

As the satellite commercial goes, "How cool is that?"  Tres cool...

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Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net - anything is fair game - although I'm a tasteful editor (*most times)

Around the Ranch:  Burning Desire

When we had the south 16 thinned of trees about two years ago, we were left with some slash piles to burn.  Today, looks like this weekend's weather may get us a burning window next week:

"On Saturday... widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across all of North Texas. Areas mainly to the southeast of a Temple to Athens line will see an enhanced tornado threat during the afternoon hours as a warm front lifts north through the area. In addition to any severe weather... widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected. While this will be much needed rainfall... some localized areas of flooding may occur."

Next week, I'm taking some time off from the consulting chores to catch up on things around the ranch.  I've made a list and put in realistic time estimates.  The problem is that it works out to 9 non-stop days of 13.94 hours each.  And that's without the daily updates here, showers, food, sleep time, and so forth.  I'll let you know how it goes.

Thursday February 14, 2008

As the Depression Turns

Although I've been writing about the evolution of the 'second depression' since 1996, and thinking about it since the mini-melt of 1987, there are some mornings I have to pinch myself to be reminded that in the precursor/lesser event called the "Great Depression of the 1930's" we didn't have mass media to the extend we do now. 

The 1930's was a simpler time, relatively freer of jingoism, foreign troop commitments, nuclear weapons, terrorism, and oh yeah, most recently the phenomena of "memeering" - where various forces behind the curtains are planting ideas/concepts and doing psyops via many internet discussion groups to precondition public opinion toward some undisclosed end.

Still, the point has to be remembered that at the outbreak of the Great Depression, people didn't just wake up one morning a week after The Crash and declare "Gee, we must be in a...a...a...Depression!  That's what we'll call it..." and from there it went into the history books.

Instead, the evolution of the term Depression evolved over a couple of years.  The famous comments of Irving Fisher sound eerily similar to what Wall Streeters said when the Tech Bubble burst in the spring of 2000, and more recently, what the Street has been saying  lately about the Housing Bubble's and mortgage collapse:

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher stated on the 21st that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday the 23rd, he announced in a banker’s meeting “security values in most instances were not inflated.”

To be sure, a major decline of the stock market (more than 10%) doesn't necessarily mean that a depression is about.  Only that a major economic slowdown is afoot.  Where the Depression became 'real' in the 1930's was with bank runs and a collapse of the bond market.  That's when things went from bad to worse. 

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It's with this in mind that three stories have to pop up on today's scan as perhaps worth considering from an historic perspective, rather than just pushing them off to the back-burner of daily news drone.

First is the Bloomberg story - not unexpected in light of my friend Robin Landry's experience trying to sell a muni bond recently for which got no bids for days - and it goes to the idea that bond rates are going through the roof.  If this doesn't speak to the 'split outcome' of simultaneous collapse of housing versus a countervailing wild inflation on consumer goods, I don't know what does.  Fasten your seat belt and read just one sentence from a recent article:

"Rates on $100 million of bonds sold by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with bidding run by Goldman, soared to 20 percent yesterday from 4.3 percent a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "

If other headlines are right, which go to the idea that bond insurers can weather the current tempest without a bailout, then it looks suspiciously like folks down at the bond market (*many times the $$ value of the stock market, by the way) haven't gotten the word.  Reports that "MBIA raises $1.1 B to Shelter Rating" doesn't mean much with the size of the problem may be orders of magnitude larger.

To be sure, Warren Buffett may have a little deeper pockets than that, but again, when interest rates are jumping to as much as 4-times three-week-ago rates, we have to wonder if the bond market has a deeper reason to be skeptical of the bailout, fund raising,  and assistance plans tabled so far.  The resignation of the Chief Risk Officer over at Ambac, certainly doesn't send the bond traders a confidence booster, either.

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Perhaps the most interesting headline of the week came out of John Parry (Reuters) who wrote a piece suggesting that the present "Depression risk might force U.S. to buy assets."  While the idea of the government buying stocks, bonds, and other assets may seem outlandish, I'm afraid that boat has already sailed. 

To investors who insist on maintaining a thick layer of sand to bury their heads in, the existence of the President's "Working Group on Financial Markets" is mythical.  But, for those up to the hard work of awareness, here's a link to the Executive Oder which set it up (12631) .  It means, in short, that since six months after the mini-crash of 1987, government has taken  up the ...

"...goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider: (1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and (2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations. '

Consequently, armed with a little dough from the Treasury's Economic Stabilization Fund, the government has a very free hand in market interventions.  Depending on your caffeine loading dose, you might recall I was driven out of playing stock options (and am currently playing commodity options) because the 'periodic interventions' that screwed me over royally in several short plays with enough dollars on the line, that I still have another couple of years of loss-carryforwards to deal enjoy.  Bitter?  Loose a Lexus-worth in an afternoon and you tell me.   Bitter?  Maybe a tad, but it is only paper, after all.

No, it's not like I am making up this 'government intervention' stuff.  A quick check of the government's own web sites brings a low-key admission by Treasury that OK, maybe there were lots of Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) interventions in the past...

Intervention Operations 1985-90. There were numerous episodes of intervention during this period, some involving net purchases of foreign currencies by the US monetary authorities and some involving net sales of foreign currencies. These operations were generally carried out in conjunction with operations by a number of other countries' monetary authorities, including those of the major industrialized countries.

With markets now facing risks at least equal to (* and I would argue actually much greater )than) the short -term problems of the mini-crash in 1987, the Asia Contagion, or the LTCM debacle, there's be no reason for an small-time operator/speculator (like yours truly) to do anything other than to invest as though those you're sitting across the table from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson.  You try to read their poker tells.

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Removing the "Tells"

Even sitting in on a high-stakes game with the Big Boyz is not that difficult to win, especially if you know which numbers to read.  The disadvantage on the government side is that although they play a role almost akin to that of "the House" in Las Vegas, at least in Vegas, the House has the good sense to keep its positions and holdings under wraps.

For the government, there's no such hidey-hole.  They are law bound to remove the most obvious signs of how they are trying to counter a great tide of history.  Except....

One way they hid a tell was to remove the broadest measure of the money supply, the so-called M-3 numbers.  And, it wasn't just M-3.  Clearly the Greenspan Fed knew exactly what they were doing in helping to create the housing bubble and hiding the M-3 was just  one part of their efforts to cover their tracks.

Still, some 'heads-up' folks around the net have managed to see through the government's gobbledygook and have pieced together some significant reasons why the government would wish to bury some statistics.

John Williams, for example, runs a site called "Shadow Government Statistics" - a place where those of us with an alternative (*unless, non-official, and not appreciated by the PowersThatBe) point of view often to get a check of what the real world looks like with the rose-colored glasses off.

Besides showing that the real rate of inflation is actually much closer to 7 1/2 percent at the moment, compared with the "official" 4 % kind of range, the site offers things like the Misery Index.

Although the subscription price ($175 per year) is well worth it, if you're a real serious player (it's beyond mine), the point about 'blowing up the money supply' to cause inflation to counter deflation is available at Trader Bart's site where a reconstructed M-3 chart shows the current rate of increase in the money supply is approaching 18%.

Another 'tell' that the government is having a tough time 'keeping the lid on' is the Federal Reserve H.3 report which shows what were supposed to be 'bank reserves' under the concept of fractional reserve banking, are now virtually all borrowed.  The implication of this is subtle:  But there was once a time when banks had some money in the bank to back up their deposits.  Today, that's a very difficult conclusion to justify.; 

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So, what's the next 'tell' to be hidden?  A report out this week says the "Bush Administration Dies More Data, Shuts Down Website Tracking U.S. Economic Indicators"  is (pun intended) telling. 

Well, of course they would.  Come to think of it, the Bush version of corpgov has been busy hiding all kinds of inconvenient statistics under the rug - as a quick trip to The Carpetbagger Report by Steve Benen will attest.

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Once again this morning, I read how stocks are headed for a higher opening, and I ask myself, "Are all these people pouring money from their 401-K plans into so-called 'investments' crazy?

I suppose that will be sorted out by historians in due time, if we have anything left to write with, or any time for such diversions in thought when linguistically over the next couple of years, we all move from comfort zone into survival mode due to natural disasters coming.  For now, that's below the perception threshold  (bespoke level on the net) of most people.

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The US mortgage 'aid' plan is little more than a stop-gap solution - and in keeping with this week's theme, it solves the wrong problem.  The right problem to solve is to transition back to a time when people borrowed less, lived within their means, and where jobs weren't exported for the sake of corporate/corpgov expediency.  The wrong solution is to put in moratoriums and pretend the problem is just going to disappear on its own.

There is, however, perhaps some wry humor, or at least irony in watching how this all shakes out:  It seems that several financial institutions have received so-called "Wells Notices" that the SEC is was looking under the covers a bit.  "FSA, BofA Could Be Sued by SEC Over Muni Contracts" goes one headline.

That in and of itself is not wry, but if you zoom back far enough, you can almost see one side of government trying to keep the illusion of a healthy economy alive (hiding stats), while on the other hand, the other side of government (enforcement) is starting to chew on the very tail of the beat.  It's a 'snake swallowing itself by eating its own tail' kind of way. 

Graceful, from a design standpoint, although I'd hold back on hopes that government chewing its own tail will actually result in something a little more compact that the current bloatament of what was supposed to be a small central government as the Framers laid it out.

None of this should come as a shocker though, as the concepts are already well documented around here.  It simply means that what had begun as corporate-cannibalism via globalism has now metastasized and spread to the larger body of corpgov itself and the underlying (*with the emphasis on lying) paper assets.  Bonfire of the asset class comes this fall..

Trading With the Enemies

Which is not to say that trading with foreign countries is a bad thing.  It's only bad when we fire a whole bunch of people in the USA and export the formerly USA jobs overseas, so that corpgov can pay people less paper and pocket the wage-rate differential and transfer the hard work of others into the pockets of their shareholders rather than sweat makers.

Yeah, yeah, it's not like making a better mousetrap, but whatcha gonna do?

Back on point:  The export paper/import things festival is slowing as people run out of money...

Goods and Services

 

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total December exports of $144.3 billion and imports of $203.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.8 billion, down from $63.1 billion in November, revised. December exports were $2.2 billion more than November exports of $142.2 billion. December imports were $2.2 billion less than November imports of $205.3 billion. In December, the goods deficit decreased $4.6 billion from November to $68.2 billion, and the services surplus decreased $0.2 billion to $9.5 billion. Exports of goods increased $2.3 billion to $103.1 billion, and imports of goods decreased $2.3 billion to $171.3 billion. Exports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $41.2 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $31.8 billion. In December, the goods and services deficit was down $1.5 billion from December 2006. Exports were up $17.2 billion, or 13.6 percent, and imports were up $15.7 billion, or 8.4 percent....

Most of which looks really good until you think about it:  We've got people being foreclosed on right and left, tent cities springing up, and banks that are screwing people over for 28% interest rates on late payments.  You think people have anything left to spend on imported goods?  Maybe there's a sliver lining to this foreclosure stuff, but it's not enough to spur me into a serious party mood.  I look it more like 'death of the Middle Class."

News Corp Yahoo

Well, well, well.  The concentration of media power continues with word that Yahoo may be acquired by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.  Take that, Bill.

The Runs: Bye Hillary

The former Clinton campaign manager signs up with Obama.

Flying Casino

Airbus marketing deal: a flying casino is in the works.  This would make going to an airport more of a gamble, or at least give new meaning to taking a flyer.,..

War Watch: Israel Moves Forces

Although still a couple of weeks (maybe) from Israel's 'lashing out that goes badly at least from the standpoint of world public opinion', we note with interest that troops are being rushed to the northern border today.

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I may take another flyer on oil, once we get a contract settlement pullback.  It's not like shooting fish, though, timing is everything.  Oil's still too rich for me.

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Coping: A Personal Plumbing Lesson

So, there I was about to set up new subscribers last night after an afternoon bout of fence installing.  As I turned off one of the water lines, feeding a goat men, the valve came off in my hand along with  a decent-sized hunk of pipe.

Seems whoever put in the original water line used schedule 80 (instead of thicker schedule 40) which left me out in the dark until 8 last night doing plumbing repairs.

Two lessons from that, though.  One is Elaine came up with the idea of using plastic 'peanuts' for packing the 4" insulating pipe around the 1" supply line.  Good idea.  They are much more efficient (especially when wet) than conventional fiberglass insulation which soaks up tons of water.

The other learning lesson (*and I'm pleased with this) is that you should have all kind of plumbing parts on hand.  T's and end caps, adapter, spare faucets - and lots of pipe on hand so when something like this happens, it's only an hour outside, rather than falling victim of an accident.

I got a nice hot shower about 8:30.  Lesson:  Have lots of plumbing fittings on hand, a couple of bottles of "hot" and a few bottles of "wet set" cement on hand. 

Ask yourself:  If youi blew out of water line out by your garden, or in the middle of your yard someplace (*and it was night) would youi be back up, ready for operation with the pipe insulated and all in an hour and 15 minutes?

I will head to the suppliers today to pick up more parts.  While a $50 inventory of parts, pipe, and glues sound crazy when everything is working, when stuff hits the fan, it's could be a life saver.

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Send snip and save ideas to:  george@ure.net

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Wednesday February 13, 2008

Measurement Wednesday

I promised myself a couple of things yesterday, not the least of which was to keep my morning columns a little shorter.  Not that you need a shorter read, but because, as the old Talking Heads song went, "I can feel my lifetime piling up..." and there is far more to do than there is time in the day.  I'm taking next week off from consulting projects to get things done around the ranch.  Mostly work-work items like getting taxes done, sealing up the shop against the local insect population, putting up (still more) fencing, and laying out plans for the new HVAC unit for the main house - and maybe even putting a "hush kit" on the A/C here in my office.   All of which takes what?  Time.

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Writing the column is not difficult, though, because just about everyday, the Universe slaps me upside the head with this or that, providing a big 'stare-you-in-the-face' clue or theme about what to look at.  Last night's adventure in the kitchen was a perfect example.

I was pre-making the coffee and as I was filling Mr. Coffee, something gnawed at the back of my mind:  Do I really drink 5-6 cups a day, as the markings on the side of the Mr. Coffee carafe would seem to indicate?

"Heck no, you don't drink that much," my prehensile brain reported.  Being of nearly German  decent (Danish folks have a coffee gene, you know), I habitually drink my coffee from either a Pyrex of Anchor Hocking 2-cup measuring cup.  When I say I drink 2 to  2.5 cups of coffee per day, that's a pretty accurate measurement.

So I started to fill Mr. Coffee with my coffee cup/measuring cup.  It was clean, BTW, so no worries, right?  I managed to put in about 4 two-cup measuring cups full before the Mr. Coffee carafe was over the 12 cup line!  If I had been holding the carafe over the floor, and putting in 12-real (8 oz.) cups, it would have made one hell of a mess. 

Moreover, when we bought this Mr. Coffee unit (and a lifetime filter - one of those ultra-fine mesh gold plated whizzies) I remember Elaine asking "You sure you want a 12-cup unit?  Sounds kinda big..."  Needless to say, she found my little late-night kitchen science project of interest, too.

Now, I'm ponder what to do with this new-found knowledge.  Apparently a 'cup' of coffee to the Mr. Coffee folks is 6-ounces, but in any radio station, Air Force site, airline, college, software company, sailboat, or ranch I've spent any time at, 'a cup' was generally thought to be eight (8) ounces, not six (6).  I bet the small Americano split shot's I used to drink tipped in close to 8-ounces, too.  Maybe Denny's uses 6-ounce cups, I don't remember.

Could this all be part and parcel of what seems to be a growing trend in America?  Telling consumers that they are getting a cup - which someone witht he last name "Coffee" now thinks is way less than 8-ounces?

I wonder if the Mr. Coffee folks have thought about branching into economic statistics?

Waits and Measures

As long as we're talking about measures this morning, GW is to sign the "economic stimulus" package today and media seem largely convinced that it's a rebate, not an advance against a future tax refund.  (The folks who write may be drinking 6-ounce cups of coffee, so maybe they just aren't alert yet.) The difference being that we're being given the privilege of borrowing from our own future tax refunds without interest.  Gee, how nice of them.  How really frigging nice.

Measuring Housing Gloom

Worst foreclosure rate in the country in 2007 was Detroit, according to a report out today. And that was before GM's announcement that they will be offering early retirements/job buyouts to a further 74,000 workers this year.  If you wanted to be Detroit would not be in the top 10 this year, I'd take your money, I expect.

A Measure of Oil...

...is down under $93 dollars this morning.  Yes, I really got out at the high in Monday...blind, stupid, luck.  Cool oil production chart here, by the way.

The Runs: Measuring Voters

Obama and McCain in DC, MD, and VA.  And who is the sore loser?  You need to ask?

Measuring Voters, II

The pro-Musharraf party in Pakistan predicts victory.  Paper trail?

A Measure of Grain

Oh, oh.  Remember the linguistics boys telling us that "grains are going to go through the roof" (which they have, so far)?  Well, looks like there's some basis entering MSM about the food shortage/possible famine out there on the horizon when we read headlines like "Cereal Stockpiles Continue to Fall:  UN Food Agency Says Cereal Stockpiles to Hit Lowest Level in Over 20 Yrs, Causing High Prices.'

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Our wheat position dropped a bit overnight, and that's fine.  I'm planning to leg back into the trade shortly when prices come down to what JB thinks would be a 'screaming buy zone.'  Me?  I just read the linguistics.  Oh, and speaking of which..

Lifetime Piling Up, Redux

The last of the ALTA 1008 linguistics run [part 7] ought to be posted today.  And, besides waiting on Israel to invade Gaza (and maybe more, as long as they're at it in a week to four),  The time monks sent me this last night:

"gonna post p7 [Wednesday] - really strange damn stuff in it too. Lots of long range showing up. You have until late july to get your trench dug. "

So, that's the timing of a 'next round' of wind-driven disaster.   I guess the 'lifetime piling up" may be literal as I get to digging a storm shelter this spring. This recent worst-ever early tornado was only a prequel, so it appears in modelspace. 

And speaking of weather, the super-sized statue of Jesus overlooking Rio de Janeiro was hit by lightning during storms there earlier this week - and it was caught on film...

Worse natural disaster is still to come before Christmas - late fall kind of range for that one.

And, the time monks seem to have hit one of their temporal markers...

"ohhh, sorcerers and wizard language showing up... [data extract]

hows wheat doing? back in yet? "

A little.  We'll DCA in more on weakness and pullbacks.  I leave the juicy stuff, like the presidential wannabe with a health issue that sidelines him this fall for subscribers to the ALTA series. 

Data collection for the next series (Either 1208 or 0110  [mon/yr]) gets turned on for the spiders next week.  Highlights of the 1007 are usually summarized in the next run's baseline report (Part Zero).

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Disclaimer:  This is all a very interesting project for our personal amusement and entertainment only.  however, we're not to be held responsible should the Universe deliver a future which fits rather closely with what's in modelspace.

SteeeRike Over

Writes back to writing in Tinsel Town. If you noticed any change in TV while they were out, maybe you're watching too much?

Space Wars

China and Russia are proposing a ban on weapons in space.  Are we going to sign that, after all the money we've poured into defense contractors?  Are you nuts?  (Or maybe, are we all?)

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Coping: Bootstrapping Society

Every once in a while, I get a real gem contributed by a reader - and this morning I'm pleased to share with you free, plans to build your own MultiMachine.

If you don't know what a MultiMachine is, think of it as a home-built combination of a metal lathe and a milling machine and drill press.  A sort of all-in-one machinery making tool that can be cobbled together using common parts and scraps of an old car or truck. 

Now, before I give youi the link to download this 80-page guide or give you the email address to order a copy of a DVD which is in the works on this, let me first give a big "Thank you!" to Pat Delaney, who coincidentally lives here in Palestine, Texas.  (The world is really a much smaller place than you would ever imagine.)

Pat has asked me to do two things.  The first is that if you really plan to build a MultiMachine, you sign up for the MultiMachine Yahoo discussion group.  There are lots of reasons why, but it all comes under the heading of 'users/builders sharing construction tips and hints.'  The Yahoo group is at:  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/multimachine/

The second is a little more difficult.  Pat's a very nice fellow and has put nearly countless hours into the development of this project (along with how to make a lathe from an old car block) and he has done so with the idea that finding a junked car or truck out in the Third World/ developing nations isn't a hard thing to do.  I know you've got the vision forming:  Give a man instruction on how to bootstrap up a whole machine shop, and pretty quickly, you can get all kinds of local industry going and help the world become more locally self-sufficient.

The curious thing is, however, that Delany has had almost no success at trying to give the resource kit he's developed and continues to evolve to Third World development and relief organizations.

I have my suspicions why:  Clearly, if indigenous people learn how to build their own machine shops and factories, that might put a huge hole in the ability of corporation to exploit all aspects of people in lesser developed countries.  Further, it likely also has something to do with the singular mission of aid groups:  Most seem to deliver services and sermons, not infrastructure build-out or grassroots development plans.  Still, if you know of any international aid groups with a broader focus, please send an email to me at george@ure.net, or Pat Delany directly via rigmatch@yahoo.com.  Maybe if you know the folks at  www.sunoven.com, or some group like that which is delivering technology to the outback parts of the world.

Now, here's the link to download the MultiMachine plan book - all 80-pages worth.

Pat, by the way, has come up with an innovative new take off on the Cole drill.  If youi don't know what a Cole drill is, don't feel bad, I didn't until yesterday, either.  Turns out it is a hand drill which is designed for cutting holes through really tough materials.

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If you are interested in setting up your own 'huge, planetary devastation' or Third World economic recovery kit, you might also want to visit the Dave and Vince Gingery books site over at Lindsay Technical Books.

File Under Thank You!

A reader about a month back sent me a set of metal files.  What made these special was that the handles they were set in were all hand-cut from trees on his property.  I used a couple the other day and I made a metal note to say "Thank you".  I kept meaning to send an email note, but that sticky note is over in...uh...that pile over there, I think.

Gardening Question

OK, one more item:  I was sitting back thinking about our garden yesterday (in the context of an email discussion I'm having with some heirloom/heritage seed folks who were wanting to advertise here) and it occurred to me that although there are tons of books out there which say which zones will support what kind of plants, and what the last frost dates are, I haven't seen one that says "Here's the plants that you can grow in your area pesticide-free" and with little effort.

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To show you what I mean, Elaine and I put in lots of veggies last year, but it was mainly 5tomatoes and squash, plus a few herbs, the cauliflower and broccoli that really did well.  Fire ants ate the sugar peas, and so forth.

I haven't seen a book yet where a standard planting of X number of veggies have been planted and then categorized as to yield and food nutrition values.

So before I get all worked up and outline some grandiose plan to get schools in every part of the country to grow a 'standard patch' of vegetables, so we would have some kind of idea what the yields would be without pesticides and minimal work, do you know of any such thing?

Seems like it would be a damn useful idea and would sure have spared us a lot of work if we had known that "This critter eats your beans and these ants will take out your sugar peas, and you'll need an armed guard for the last month of the corn to keep the possums and raccoons out..." instead of learning from the folks across the road, who are still experimenting, too, that deer don't eat turnips.

Send it along if I missed something like this.   Or, if you have something worth sharing in our 'snip and save section' send that, too: george@ure.net.

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Around the Ranch: From the Middle-aged Farmer's Almanac

Still no baby goats from the nanny Boer goat.  Although, her udder is almost as shiny as a canned milk can, now.

Elaine saw her first snake yesterday while we were punching in posts for the pygmy goats, who have been feasting on the vegetable garden's leftovers.  10" copperhead, she thinks.  Great.  Elaine's seeing snakes and the groundhog seems to be right this year.

We may not be full-on for snake season yet, however.  The Weather Service has a nastygram for what's coming this weekend.  Figures:  I plan a week of projects and we get crap weather.  No pot in going postal about it, rancherly chores will get done in spite of rain, wind, snow, and all that.  It would just be nice to have 9-days in a row of perfect working weather: 60F high, 50F low, and no rainy.  No such luck. 

I wonder if I can train the goats to run a Skil saw or put up their own damn fences?

Tuesday February 12, 2008

War: Flying Foreplay?

Linguistically, while we await Israel's attack on [whoever] in the three-week to three-month timeframe linguistically, it's interesting to see how the headlines are starting to carry stories about the building tensions between the US and Russia, most recently with a reported over flight of the USS Nimitz by a Russian bomber.  Not once, but twice...

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Since I've been getting into commodities a bit lately, which we'll get to in a few minutes here, I've started using them as indicators about future events.  This morning, with headlines that "Oil steady as investors weigh Venezuela supply threat," I think to myself "Hmmm...if oil starts to pop up more, then that would mean a war is close.  There's never been a war that at least a few insiders didn't see coming...".  A few minutes later, along comes the report that oil is back under $93...

Another good "war indicator" is copper.  Why?  Oh, shell casings and things like that.  Today, the headline is out that "Copper rises as inventories drop again."

To be sure, there are lots of reasons why copper is dropping.  One reason is the horrific winter being experienced by China.  The weather situation is not only bad, say reports, but looking to get worse.  While the weather wizards figure that it likely has something to do with La Nina, I'm looking at the situation in China and wondering what it means for the US which depends so heavily on China for large portions of commercial goods?

Quietly, the linguistics team has been looking, too.  In the seventh part of the current ALTA 1008 run (*likely out today or tomorrow) details of what's ahead for China may be included.  Without blowing the whole story, just bookmark this page and remember the word "dark"  about six months from now.

In the meantime, the discussions around the web are that certain big Box-Stores are quietly letting goods on the shelves run down, and then are bringing in replacement goods at much higher prices.  If you hit the Google news search engine, you can see that the number of hits for the word "shortage" is now up over 32,000. 

This compares with just 11,500, or so, when we first got vision of 'shortages/encounters with scarcity' in modelspace more than 2-years back.  Since there aren't any books out there on 'How to Use the Internet as a forward looking time machine employing radical linguistic analysis" (meaning, we're learning as we go) one thing has become clear: The further ahead of events we see things, the bigger/more widely impacting/emotionally painful they are.

While we've seen the 'death of the US Dollar' (embodied as Federal Reserve Notes [FeRN's] for three or four years by 'November', it's a bear to figure out which 'November' is referenced, although the one coming is a fair guess, especially considering how much papering-over of the financial crisis is going on.  For today, the dollar is reported "steady"

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Also in the Wars and Rumors of Wars file:  Two arrests have been made in an espionage case involving China.

Lucky Me Department

A couple of readers have questioned whether I really did that amazing oil trade last Thursday where I bought (3)  seven-day oil calls for $510 (plus commissions and fees) and then sold one Friday for $700.  As you'll recall from the earlier report, that left me two options playing with "house money".  And sometimes I get really damn lucky (*some would call it skill, but luck is closer to it) and sell out at the top on Monday.  From my statement this morning, it seems that I got out of the 7-day oil at almost exactly the high Monday:

If you're following along as I test to see how linguistics and commodity options can be played, this leaves me with one wheat call worth $3,062.50 which is a 'free ride' - having already sold one and made enough money on it that selling one paid for two and then some.  And the other position (*which has nothing to do with linguistics, but is more a play on my expectation that the US dollar will turn lower this spring and the cost of anything imported will go up - a lot) is five July coffee call options which seem to be worth $4,800 as of statement time overnight.

This leaves me with an account value at statement time of $14,252.38 on cash in (since July 9, 2007) of $2,700, which is a return of 527% or, if you figure it the other way, it's a gain of 427%. 

As I've said may times, there are four things you need to remember as you read these updates.

1. This is *NOT* trading advice.  I have 100% of my money at risk.  This is very much like playing poker.  I can (and still may) lose 100% of my money.  Although, I have to admit I've made a few bucks so far.

2. I do not play anything other than options because they provide a vehicle where the maximum loss on a position is what you have spent to enter the position.  Do *NOT* under any conditions  buy actual contracts in commodities unless you are really willing to stake your house/spouse/kids/ and various bodily appendages on the trade.  My standing advice to anyone is DON'T BUY CONTRACTS.  There's one specialized exception having to do with if you hold an option at the end of contract and you can buy a contract (covered by the option) so you have little risk and can lock in a spread (*and leave a little less for the pit sharks) but that's not for newbies and only a qualified commodities broker should guide you guide you in this.

3. Playing options is somewhat addicting.  OK, a lot addicting, then.  If you have one of those personalities where you can't stop yourself from buying pull-tabs, then by all means, put your money into a mutual fund because you will do better there in the long-run.  Playing options intelligently requires a good view of the future.  If you get that right (*like we may be in a period right now of incipient inflation with a famine/food shortages this summer linguistically) then the risk is reduced by the quality of your vision of the future.

4. If you doubt any of these things, call my commodities guy, JB Slear at 866-443-0868 extension 104.  He's licensed and can talk as a broker.  I'm just reporting on my personal results and I am doing so on my own and no one has paid me anything to do this.  Yes, I have authorized JB to confirm that the trades I have reported here are all 'real'.  In Texas, we don't shoot blanks.

Please, don't ghost (*copy) my trades.  I am bound to make some monumental screw-ups and lose the whole thing.  Moreover,  when we are in 'fast market' conditions, I can be in an out of a trade in a day (*like the Thursday/Friday oil trade last week).  There are plenty of sites on the web where you can read up on commodities and make you own judgments and play your own game. 

With all this disclaiming, you might be asking "George, why are you posting the trades in the first place?"  The answer is simple:  I fancy myself a half-decent business/finance/economics writer. 

I've had people ask me in the past "If you were really any good at this stuff, why aren't you rich?"

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I am writing this whole adventure down as I go for a couple of reasons.  First, a lot of people who hold themselves to be "financial writers" don't publish how their own portfolio is doing - or what they do in the way of income from sources other than their 'news report' jobs. 

If they would publish their personal financial performance, then we'd all know when reading or watching them do interviews, what their batting average is.  Unlike sports, where the interviewers are not expected to actually take to the field, finance is a one-on-one:  Investor in full contact with the market. 

Wouldn't it be cool if there was a national financial reporters ranking system?  I would love to see what the trades of so and so on Fox, or so and so on Bloomberg, or Fox, or MSNBC was?  It would be a dandy way to sort out the wheat from the chaff.  Moreover, I believe that if we are going to demand campaign finance disclosure by politicians, why not hold reporters to the same standards?  I'm all for reporters being subject to some kind of financial disclosure so we can see on what side their bread is buttered, so to speak.

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Back to the realm  of the possible: This weekend, for subscribers to my Peoplenomics.com newsletter, more thoughts on how to better your personal financial outcome.  If you don't have the $40 a year to subscribe, I'll give it to you in just a few words for free: The objective is to continually build your net worth.  Simple as that.  Of course, even that is complicated, which is why a more detailed discussion is warranted for subscribers this weekend...

Next moves with the cash?  Maybe ladder back into wheat on any weakness over the next few weeks as a couple of farmers have mentioned to me that elevator prices are high and may go much higher.  Oh, it also seems to me like all that bad weather in China may push up prices, too.  One sources has penciled out $20-$50 a bushel for wheat.  That would be a 'no brainer' if it were to happen.  What was the old Biblical prediction?  Working a whole day for a measure of grain and a measure of oil?  Seems like call options would work in the kind of world, wouldn't they?

Son of JFK?

A British Columbia man might be an illegitimate offspring of the 35th president.

General Ouchers

GM's losses head for $38.7 billion and they are planning to buy out (*that's a layoff with a check) for 74,000 hourly workers.  Two thoughts:  Seems to me like lots of managers could be on the line too...and golly, losses like this might qualify management of GM top run a mortgage company...

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You know what amazes me (at the moment, anyway)?  That the Dow is headed for a higher open.   Just think of the rally is we laid off everyone!   Isn't there like drug testing for investors, or something?

So Sorry Department

Australia is preparing to apologize for the death, doom, and destruction wrought on Aboriginal Peoples.  Sorry, but 'sorry' doesn't seem sufficient.

Solving the Wrong Problem Department

Euroland to Finger Print

Says the Washington Post: "Travelers to Europe May Face Fingerprinting."  This is just more evidence, seems to me, as solving the wrong problem.  Just like patting down a 80-year old grandmother at the airport seems wrong.  Sorry, but when we know who the terrorists are, seems profiling just makes sense.  No, not 'politically correct'...so we what, go completely nuts on a fascist (corpgov) agenda applied to everyone instead?  Like that's a better approach than profiling?  I must not have had enough coffee yet.  Maybe there's more money to be made in fingerprinting everyone - yeah that must be it...

Housing "Help"

The Treasury Department and HUD have plans to unveil a mortgage assistance program.  The corporate participants reads, to me, like a who's who of mortgages and balance sheets in trouble...

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Coping:  A Do It Yourself Vacuum Sealer

Here's something really cool - a vacuum sealer made from an old car air conditioner. 

Before you click on this, the usual disclaimers.  I am NOT recommending you make one of these, but if you do, you'

re on your own.  This is clearly not something you should take on without care because vacuums are not to be trifled with.  I'm not responsible for any harm or injury... 

OK, having said that, click here for the .PDF file of how to make one.

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Now, being as we're all a bunch of 'do it yourselfers'; around here, do you have plans that are in the public domain to build anything useful/practical for around the house?  If so, send them along to george@ure.net and we'll share them.  No copyrighted material!

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Monday February 11, 2008

'Wrong-Problem' Monday

No, getting up before the chickens to write about the day's news, expected future events, and financial affairs is not particularly difficult.  In fact, on morning's like this one, virtually no thought is necessary: just fingers to type, eyes to read, and a continuous sense of incredulousness at the foolish behavior of humans.  Or, as this morning's theme goes: "Watching people solve the wrong problem."

Take for example, please, the story that Hillary Clinton has gotten herself a new campaign manager.  So, why would I label this "wrong problem" solving?  Because in George-land, the problem was never the campaign manager -- it was the candidate.  That problem continues and the underlying problem (electing a corptocracy member to the WH from the ranks of the insiders/elites) continues unabated.

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Want another example?  Sure thing.  How about the headline that "Afghan Opium Fields Show Failure of U.S. Economic-aid Efforts"?  Why are the opium fields off limits in this war?  The answer runs contra to what we want to believe: Narcoterrorism's part of the business of making wars.

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Today, there is suggestion in the British Press that the Archbishop of Canterbury should resign over remarks about sharia banking (though they might have a point).  Obviously, the Archbishop's point about bankers screwing almost anything that walks upright is the root problem, and firing him won't make that go away. 

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Then we have the B of A notice in very fine small fine print that you had could only opt out of a credit card rate hike by sending a letter with your personal account info to a PO box - I didn't see an 800 number - just as a for instance. I had fully intended to send in my notice that this wasn't acceptable, but in the storm of paperwork that floats around my office, I just never got to it.  Not that it matters to me, my account balance is zeroed - usually within any use of the credit card anyway.  But, what about people who don't read their fine print?

I've been a B of A customer since the late 1960's (or was it early 1970's?) when they acquired Seattle First National Bank.  Now, they are about to lose a 35-year customer because of shenanigans like this.  How so?

I don't know about you, but I figure that even in la-la bankerland raising the interest rate via fine print BS of a guy with perfect credit, who has enough dough in his account to write a check for a well equipped new car, and who has a zero balance on his credit card, is a picture-perfect example of our Monday theme: solving the wrong problem.

Bankers, unfortunately, are not the only ones afflicted with "Solve A Problem Wrongly Identified, However Syndrome"  (SAPWIHS for short - pronounced SAP-Wheeze). 

The announcement in mid February that the FDIC (*Yes, the folks that supposedly insure money in some banks) are, finally getting around to rulemaking in how to go around "Processing Deposit Accounts in a Bank Failure and  Modernizing Large-bank Insurance Determinations."

Banking is an area so full of 'wrong problems' solved it will make your head spin.  I will just leave aside for now the wrong-problemness of having the bankers handle the nation's money supply.

And because the coffee is especially good this morning, I will skip over the obvious question which goes "What the hell have these people been doing since 1934, anyway?"

The root problem, as anyone can see by reading the Federal Reserve's H.3 monetary measures report, is that banks no longer have reserves!  They're all borrowed. What had been the 'fractional reserve' banking concept is now distilled down to just a paper & ink deal.

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You wonder why Ron Paul has called for an audit of Fort Knox and the best answer he can get is "We won't dignify that with a response" kind of doublespeak?  Why not just do the audit instead of attacking the question?  Obvious to me: The PowersThatBe don't want to real problem solved. 

Why, if they did, government would print its own money, usury laws would come back, people would be encouraged to lead a life of thrift, and maybe, just maybe, one person working could support ;a family again.  Of course, concepts like that are appalling to the corpgov nanny state.

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Which is why we read headlines like Hillary swapping out campaign managers, rather than hearing how well Ron Paul did in Washington State.  He's within 5% points of front runner John McCain - and that's with damn near no media coverage of his campaign.  Look: Here's an AP story about Washington State republicorp results that fails to even mention Paul.  'Mazing!  Keep defending that corpgov status quo!

Are all SAPWIHS (*say it out loud: Sap-wheeze) events confined to banking, drugs, and politics?  Why of course not!

We have to look at  "Terrorism Alerts" bandied about by DHS.  Again, the wrong problem solved.  The real issue is that if you have a just society you don't have terrorism.  On the other hand, when you have a ruling class of power elites/bankers who are about to foreclose on estimates go into the millions, terrorism is but a leading edge of broader social problems to come. 

As I got it figured: First you get terrorism, then you get revolution, as anyone who's read the story of the Shah of Iran ought to remember.  And if it seems that the US domestic response to terrorism is headed down the same path as the Shah's SAVAK, and that now, in addition to enlisting assistance from private business to spy on folks, and getting ministers/pastors enlisted in groupthink, we also read how personal laptop contents are being read at borders now, too. 

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TSA, not to be confused with another agency, has started up its own blog to counter news popping up on the 'net.

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Don't let my caffeine inflamed notes here bust your reverie, though.  That'd be solving the right problem.  It is, when all's said and done,  just another "wrong-problem" Monday.  Go back to sleep.

Truth?

George Bush calls McCain a "true conservation".  This from a guy that calls the Constitution just a what?  And rules by executive decree... oh boy!  The modern definition of "conservative" has apparently been changed to defending the corporate/government state. 

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Hell, I'm so old I remember when it used to mean being a firm Constitutionalist.  But, that was a long time ago.  Back in he days of Habeas Corpus and warrants... speaking of which, a good similar view in the SF Chronicle's site in the open forum section.

Attacks on Firemen

I've held, for a long time, that England is not a place you want to live.  Nor, is it a place you want to be a fire fighter.

The Sky Is Falling Department

When it does, it can change history.

Shaken

Alaska has its Cleveland volcano on the 'orange watch' this morning.

Free Books

HarperCollins trying something new starting today. 

Trading

Oil might get a boost later today as Venezuela's Chavez is table-thumping again.  I'm playing in commodities today with House Money with my wheat and oil calls, so I could care.  Except for the five coffee call options, those are real (my) money. 

You go right on thumping, Hugo.

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Coping: How Much Information?
As the internet has become a daily fixture in our lives, people forget that it can be used for "information fishing".