Getting Tactical

This weekend, as if you wouldn't expect it given the market's butt kicking on Friday, I'm working on some 'lines in the sand' for Peoplenomics subscribers.  [Subscription information.] The reason?  Next week, there's a chance one, or both, of these threshold levels could be tested and we appear to be only two technical lines away from the possibility of complete financial collapse.

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While there is still plenty of time to prepare for 'whatever it is' that's ahead for the balance of the year, an article in the Financial Post Friday demands a close read: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food".

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Still, looking at some of the fast and slow stochastics, and the RSI's of commodities, it seems that a lot of the commodities are a bit overblown in terms of current pricing and we might be set up for a short but sharp pullback. 

Although energy prices dipped on Friday, there's an interesting dynamic at play:  Part of the price action will come as reaction to the oil market's workout of declining demand that accompanies a recession.  On the other side, however, there's also evidence in numbers coming out that oil really did peak in late 2006/early 2007.

That's why headlines can be found saying "Oil prices remain at record high" while other headlines report that "Oil prices slip as US jobs data fans economic worries."  This is oh-so-normal for a market seeking a new equilibrium point.

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While GW met with his economic players on Friday, and Wall Street was rocked by a jobs report, I couldn't help but notice that the Fed is increasing its 'special auctions' to $30-billion to keep the banksters in the black.  Relief from the 30%+++ credit card bills?  You're joking, right?  No way the banker-class is going to do anything more than feather their own nest.  You money doesn't have any friends.

Windifornia

That rain and wind storm that blew through California left over a million people in the dark for various lengths of time, say reports.  And further north, really crappy weather is due in Seattle through about Tuesday.  Meantime, here in east Texas, mild low 70's weather is expected.  It's weekends like this that I don't miss living on a sailboat at Shilshole.

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But speaking of Shilshole (the big pleasure boat marina operated by the Port of Seattle) , did you see that the Port is offering 50% off their wait-listing fee?  Now, I ask you, if demand were really strong and the economy really cooking would boat slips need to be advertised and discounted?  Not on any planet I've been on lately...

And judging by the posted rates, looks like there has been little movement in moorage rates since we last tied up to L dock in 2001...

So here's an economic thought for you:  Are moorage rates (and the land-yacht equivalent RV park rates) a better sample of the economy than all kinds of other data out there for the asking?

The Runs

While the Clinton PR machine is making the full court press in New Hampshire, and headlines abound like "Clinton Camp's Challenge: How Hard to Hit Obama?" at least a few voters are reading the headlines about how a fellow was just sentenced to three years for making illegal campaign contributions to her.  I'd normally make some kind of snide remark along about here, but the facts are damning enough.

Medical Miracle

A man falls 47-stories - and lives.

Arming Airliners

Now, this goes back a ways, but I'm pretty sure El Al was the first airline in the world to deploy an anti-missile defense system on their passenger jets.  Now, looks like some American carriers will be following suit.

DC Versus Constitution

The Supreme Court heard arguments yesterday on whether the District of Corruption,,, I mean Columbia, could simple legislate away rights guaranteed in the Constitution's Second Amendment to keep and bear arms. 

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Couple this with trying to take away gun ownership rights from anyone even treated for PTSD, and you have what?  The systematic government disarming of it's citizenry. 

I suppose we could have a conversation about whether government should be afraid of its citizens (yes) or people should be afraid of their government (no), but you already have an opinion on this, and you're likely to be unmoved by anything I have to say...

Maybe that will change when you're life's retirement has been squandered by the banksters...ask yourself "Is there a fraction left in fractional reserve banking?"  Hah!!!   Is the word gullible in the dictionary?

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BTW, did you catch: "Forget Tupperware; it's Taser-party time"?

Software Wars

Microsoft and Corel are at odds over Office 2004 support of .CDR files from Corel (Draw) and other aps.

Here Comes the Sun

From a NOAA email this morning:

"The first sunspot region with Solar Cycle 24 polarity was numbered by the Space Weather Prediction Center on January 4 at 2000 UTC (3:00 P.M. EST). The sunspot region was officially numbered as 10981.

This does not mean the new cycle has officially started; however, this is a clear sign Solar Cycle 24 is within sight. Sunspots are tracked because they indicate the level of space weather activity we expect. Solar activity is forecast to reach a peak in 2011 or 2012.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov "

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Coping:  Jobs, Cash, Levels

Some interesting things to think about (and plan for) in varioius emails this morning.

Morning George - I am a college graduate with a degree in Communications and have been working 20 + years in sales and marketing. Needless to say I am unemployed and have been so for awhile. The unemployment section of our local newspaper (Fresno Bee) has been reduced to 1 1/2 pages of "jobs". My questions are: 1) Are unemployment figures based only on new apps. for UI or do they count those who have used up their 6 mos. of UI and are STILL unemployed? Wouldn't it be interesting to see the real numbers on this? 2) What industries are hiring and specifically what companies are hiring. Other than teachers, nurses, and restaurant/hotel workers, what is there out there? At 53 I don't want to have to go back to school. I have bills to pay now. Am I just educated but with no marketable skills in today's economy? Thanks for listening.

The answer to #1 is that as far as I understand it, unemployment reports are only based on people who are actively getting unemployment payments.  The logic is that if you don't have unemployment coming in, you will have found your way back into the workforce.  Of course, the truth is, you may7 have taken to a life of crime or mooching off relatives, but that's 'corrected' out of the figures.

The answer to #2 is a little more complicated, but it's the ,surest way I know of to get hired in virtually any industry and regardless of economic conditions.

The approach goes like this:  Most people looking for a job will go to an employer begging.  "Hire me, please!  I will do anything for you." 

Of course, having hired lots of people, anyone coming to me saying this is immediately put into my 'this one is just hungry, and doesn't have incredibly high value to this organization' pile of resumes.

What does get you to the top of the pile is showing whoever is looking at your resume something like "I believe I can increase your companies profits by xx percent."

Everyone in business wants to make more money.  So, in the interview process, don't ask them for money - be prepared to show how you being hired by the company will make ownership richer.  Being Pavolvian (where the bell sounds more like a cash register) you will find that you quickly have your pick of jobs and once hired you move up the food chain - provided, oif course, that you really do your homework, research, and can deliver at least part of what you promise.

Whenever I was looking for a job, I always turned the interview from 'them' interviewing me to 'me interviewing them'.  Why?  Well, I'm an incredibly valuable player with lots of experience at making companies make money (or whatever your specialty is) and I always sell my value to their bottom line.  It makes hiring me irresistible.

So, give it a shot.  Take the five or six highest paying jobs you can find in the local paper, and then research the hell out of them.  Find (if you can) some way that your experience will bring some hidden solution to the company doing the hiring.  Solve their problem and believe me, they will line up to hire you.

It takes a lot of self-confidence, but if you do it often enough so that you get comfortable interviewing them instead of the other way around, you will get jobs offered; at least that's always been my experience.

Try it and let us know?

Cashless Coming

Another move toward a cashless society as the Treasury plans social security debit card.  Ah, remember a month or two back in Peoplenomics when I told you this would be the game?  Mark of the what?

Leveling Levels

When you're doing construction, here's a little known tip: Levels can be 'out of level'.  The way you check is to line something up absolutely dead level (or dead vertical) and then flip the level over.  If the level doesn't show the same (dead level or dead vertical) then flip the level both ways when setting a workpiece, or mark one end of the level and figure out the proper offset.

I've got a 2' plastic level that isn't dead vertical unless the bubble is at the line on one side.  So, with the level marked, I can do good work.

Send along snip & save contributions to george@ure.net - anything you have in the way of a generally useful tidbit to help get through life a little easier is welcome.

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Friday January 4, 2008

Beaten Brain Cells & 5% Unemployment

Now that both brain cells have been beaten out of their overnight stupor by the special setting on the shower/massage head called "water cannon" I was sure I'd remember what I told Steve Quayle last night that I'd be sure and mention this morning.  Was it how I was connecting the dots about the goings on at Citi where not only have ATM withdrawal limits been imposed, but we hear of more layoffs possibly to come?  Was it that the linguistics team at www.halfpasthuman.com was looking for some $25-$50 up days for gold as a temporal marker as a good time to be getting (or already) out of paper assets?

Maybe it had something to do with turning some of our soon to be inflating cash into useful things - like a brand new washer and dryer, installed last night, causing me to oversleep a bit, so a super short report this morning...  Or was it something else?  No worries...in today's crockpot for crackpots that defines the paper asset soup we're all in, I'm sure it will come to me.

5% Unemployment Now

The most important economic report out today is the employment report.  But before parroting what's 'offishul' in the report, let's step back for a moment and see how the CES (current employment situation) birth/death model has been doing lately as an in-house, just between us-un's, 'reasonableness check'.

Going in to this morning's report, the CES Birth/Death Model - the government's estimate of how many jobs have been created for the year - showed more than 1-million jobs being created.  I know what you're thinking: With all the layoffs in the mortgage, banking, auto, and residential construction fields, how could this be?

Amazingly, through November's report, 147,000 additional jobs had been created in construction. 

But there are some dead giveaways as to whether we should believe anything in the CES report.  Let's put on the thinking cap and I will show you what I mean. 

Last month's CES report showed that Leisure and Hospitality were up 312,000.  This feels absurd to me:  People have been getting pink slipped right and left, foreclosures are going to new highs, and yet the BLS estimate would have me believe that a third of a million people found new jobs in leisure and hospitality. 

How can I test this?  The employment report for the previous month (Nov) said that 13,702,000 people were employed in the sector, and with 312,000 new jobs, we should see 2.27% growth in something like airline seat mileage because logically, there would be a high correlation between air travel and general activity in leisure and transportation.

The problem, however, gets murky from a statistics standpoint quickly.  Having been an airline VP at one point in my career, while it's reported that "Revenue passenger-miles (RPMs), a measure of the number of passengers and the distance flown, were up 4.0 percent in the first nine months of 2007. In September, RPMs were up 5.8 percent." sounds dandy on the surface.