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Coping: Grain Pricing, Co-ops, and A Little Career Planning

A number of people wrote in about those 50-pound sacks of multi-grain that I told youi about earlier this week, wondering about price and all.  The source of the tip offers this:

In response to those who are being quoted $40+ for cracked multi-grain, they must be ordering online and paying shipping charges for delivering the 50 lb sack. Honeyville quotes $18.34 as of this AM for a 50 lb bag of 9 grain cracked cereal. That is up 40% from the traditional $13 it has been for several years, but the price of wheat alone has doubled or tripled in the last year, so it could be a lot worse. The net increase still amounts to just $5 more, so it should still be affordable.

Buyers need to find a bulk grain warehouse in their area and go pick it up (literally). The delivery services consider a 50 lb sack a serious delivery and charge for it.

There are lots of local co-ops around - check them out!  One in the Seattle area I am familiar with is PCC...

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While I was running out the daily tally of "shortages"  in the Google news search engine, I noticed a headline out of this weekend's Seattle Times, that begged for comment:  "Gates sees engineer shortage looming" goes the story.  Gates is onto something here (not just because he's super rich, either, although that may help).

If you read my subscription newsletter, you'll already know my general view is that globalism is about stretched to near its limits, and that over time we will have to see a re-industrialization of America and that will mean the all-time high of the service industries will come down to more sustainable levels and that regular folks will have to get back into the business of making "things" because over time, globalism is self-liquidation, in the sense that as purchasing power parity (PPP) really does work out, the relative cost advantage of cobbling a shoe in India, rather than making it close to where it's consumed will evaporate.

A fine and lofty economic notion, you're thinking.  But, what does this have to do with how I spend my weekend?  Ah, just so.  It begins with a little research into what you might be doing tomorrow and a great source in this regard is the US Department of Labor's Occupational Outlook.  Here, you can see what expected demand for various professions will be, and along with demand comes what?  Higher wages.

My suggestion to you is that you look up your current line of work (if you've managed to remain employed) and see what the trend is.  Then, figure out two or three other jobs you might like doing and compare them with your current gig.  If you find a higher growth alternative, and can start reading up on the subject, getting a little training now, and do the transition before the whole herd of service economy folks are pushed into it, you'll not only get a head start/seniority, but you'll maybe get yourself into a position where you will be able to move up the food chain into a supervisory role.  Thinking money here.

There's also a section called "Tomorrow's Jobs" which is worth visiting because it offers the mainstream's view of where jobs will be in the future.  And example:

I don't happen to agree with some of their projections, because it's misses things like a collapse of the US dollar, the end of conventional importation schemes to work labor rate spreads internationally, and the whole rest of it, but education and health services seem like pretty save bets.  Seems like there's a never-ending supply of people that need more edumacation.  Not to mention a case of bird flu, or whatever spills out of a lab next, eh?

I'm not suggesting you go out and bury yourself in student loans to pick up just any old job, mind you.  But, I am suggesting that you can pick up a trade like metalworking, one of the skills I'm brushing up on, at very low cost by simply getting the books, some tools, and teaching yourself.

My sense is that time is coming when the more skills you have, everything from backwoods survival to being able to build a modest home including the wiring and plumbing of it, and making of some simple goods for sale will be very valuable contributions to your odds of surviving whatever comes along, especially if we "go Argentina" with the dollar over the rest of the fall and through winter.

Oh, and if you've got kids in school, print up that Gates article and make 'em read it. Free lunches aren't forever and the more money your kids make, the better your odds of having a fall-back position should social security fails in some future economic calamity.

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Around the Ranch

OK, there I was, pushing dirty around a culvert at the creek and I noticed wate5r coming out of the Kubota diesel.  "Yikes!" I'm thinking to myself, with only 100 hours on it, why is a nearly new diesel overheating?  I was working it hard, but not that hard.

A cool down and jaunt back up the hill to the hose led to the answer:  I had been doing a fair amount of bush hogging and the brush was about 6 feet tall and going to seed.  Ah, the seeds.  There had been so many of them sucked into the screen ahead of the radiator that they had stopped up the air flow.

No problem: a couple of minutes with the hose, and all clean again, it was back to work...a first that even a few farmers might not have encountered.

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Elaine got the mouse finally.  She'd been tearing apart and sterilizing the kitchen every day for nearly a week.  Fine mouser, she is.  Better than the cats, any day.

Friday November 16, 2007

So Much for Liberties

As if American's Liberties aren't in enough trouble already, we reported in a special update yesterday that the offices of the Liberty Dollar folks in Indiana had been raided, and among other things, two tons of newly minted Ron Paul commemorative Liberty dollars had been confiscated.  Sadly, the report is now more widely reported.  Here's what's on the Liberty Dollar web site:

"Dear Liberty Dollar Supporters:

I sincerely regret to inform you that about 8:00 this morning a dozen FBI and Secret Service agents raided the Liberty Dollar office in Evansville.

For approximately six hours they took all the gold, all the silver, all the platinum and almost two tons of Ron Paul Dollars that where just delivered last Friday. They also took all the files, all the computers and froze our bank accounts.

We have no money. We have no products. We have no records to even know what was ordered or what you are owed. We have nothing but the will to push forward and overcome this massive assault on our liberty and our right to have real money as defined by the US Constitution. We should not to be defrauded by the fake government money.

But to make matters worse, all the gold and silver that backs up the paper certificates and digital currency held in the vault at Sunshine Mint has also been confiscated. Even the dies for mint the Gold and Silver Liberties have been taken.

This in spite of the fact that Edmond C. Moy, the Director of the Mint, acknowledged in a letter to a US Senator that the paper certificates did not violate Section 486 and were not illegal. But the FBI and Services took all the paper currency too.

The possibility of such action was the reason the Liberty Dollar was designed so that the vast majority of the money was in specie form and in the people’s hands. Of the $20 million Liberty Dollars, only about a million is in paper or digital form.

I regret that if you are due an order. It may be some time until it will be filled... if ever... it now all depends on our actions.

Everyone who has an unfulfilled order or has digital or paper currency should band together for a class action suit and demand redemption. We cannot allow the government to steal our money! Please don’t let this happen!!! Many of you read the articles quoting the government and Federal Reserve officials that the Liberty Dollar was legal. You did nothing wrong. You are legally entitled to your property. Let us use this terrible act to band together and further our goal – to return America to a value based currency.

Please forward this important Alert... so everyone who possess or use the Liberty Dollar is aware of the situation.

Please click HERE to sign up for the class action lawsuit and get your property back!

If the above link does not work you can access the page by copying the following into your web browser. http://www.libertydollar.org/classaction/index.php

Thanks again for your support at this darkest time as the damn government and their dollar sinks to a new low.

Bernard von NotHaus

Monetary Architect"

I expect the real reason for the raid is that these are the folks who have stepped on the 'tail of the beast' by suing over the bankster-backed paper currency.  What happened to Article 1 Section 10 of the US Constitution which specifies gold and silver is money?

Section 10. No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.

States have be co-opted into the paper game, too.  But as I read it, they could simply require what the Constitution calls for right there in black and white. Don't try to wake your legislature, though. Pork's the game and corpgov's the name.

Turkey In Six, Rally in Four?

Something to start watching for is the beginning of the 'release period' emotionally, which curiously enough is timed for Thanksgiving Day next week.  That's when what has been an emotionally 'building' period, since about mid-September will turn to 'release' language.  That's when the headlines usually turn gory with bombings, shootings, and the really ugly stuff coming to light.

In most times, we would expect to see something of a pre-holiday rally to occur, although not for too long, as the Nov. 22- January 24 ('08) period is largely financially oriented.  Still, there is some reason for a rally in sectors, like financial stocks, because of the decision out this week from the FASB to hold off for a year on getting a full accounting of 'non-financial assets' although as Nouriel Roubini noted, this will likely only exclude business combinations and the like.  Yup, that sounds like hedge funds get to skate!   I called the FASB yesterday to get a little more definition of just how this will impact the CDO/CMO world, and I have yet to hear back from them.  Paper over the problem, quick!

The stock market will be closed only for Thanksgiving itself, not for the day after.  Back in the days of real brokers (few have survived the automation of Wall St.) the day-after was jokingly referred to as "national Call Your Broker Day."  In more recent times, its when small groups of investors gather around TradeStations and try new strategies out, and tune up the choir.

One of the favorite songs to hum, while back testing straddles is "I'm Dreaming of a Green Christmas.  This past week, there has been some improvement in the outlook, but the view that it 'won't be so bad after all' is far from universal.  Although up in Plano, JC Penny has seen a profit drop, and their holiday outlook was ratcheted down a bit.

That gets us to the general topic of what to get folks for Christmas.  In a fashion trend that would bring a smile to "Leisure Suit Larry", the first adult video game to make it big, with convenience store shoppers jumping out from behind shelves to yell "Pervert!!" when Larry tried to buy a condom, we notice that retailers are looking for strong sales of 'washable suits" that won't have to be sent in for dry cleaning. Leisure suits as what the time monks would call a "self-seeding time cycle" - who would have thought? (No, you can't Google that concept, it's way too far into radical linguistics, but just remember where you heard it first...)

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I'm working on E to do a turkey with gravy and such, but the trade-off is I need to use the holiday to get some rancherly construction items done: new goat shelter, power for the chicken coop, waterline for the goats, new cabinet for the kitchen, a built-in stand for the HDTV which we'll likely get on sale in January (holding out for 1080p 46" under $1k), and a remodeled master bath.  Hmmm...that's a pretty fat list for a turkey.  She may have to throw in a few pies and a special Christmas dinner as well, but it's true:  power tools are a gift that keeps on giving.

In the event you're going over the river and through the woods and all that, gasoline to get you there will cost more, and although oil is down a tad momentarily, US News Figures $4 is on the horizon out there somewhere.

Dreamer

Dreamer of the Day award goes to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson who is signaling he expect the U.S. Dollar to rebound. 

Let me think this through out loud: Out-sourced manufacturing to China and India, software development, too, screwed most of the planet with liar's paper, print more money than necessary causing massive inflation (over 19%) at the financial abstractions layer, as much as one-third of Mexico is now in the USA, and half a trillion (near enough) has been spent on Iraq War II while plans are in the works for Iran and Syria War I.  Oh, and Consumer Debt plus National Debt about equals GDP.

Sure sounds like an air tight case for a strong dollar to me, Hank. Don't bogart that thing, share!

Citibank Transfer Limits

A reader sent along an email said to be from Citibank titled "Change to Inter Institution Transfers User Agreement" which is worth passing along:

"After a review of our security practices, the daily limit on Outgoing Standard (3-day) transfers was changed temporarily to $2,000 on October 30, 2007. That $2,000 limit will be made permanent with this upcoming change to the User Agreement."

Sure enough, a check of the Citibank online agreement shows a monthly limit on standard IIT transfers of $10,000 per month, and a monthly limit on next day transfers of $2,500!  "Security" huh?

Restrictions on Travel

Besides the "Papers Please" plans of the UK corpgov that we reported on in a special mid-morning update yesterday, the restriction in travel meme has been dropping all over Europe due to strikes in Germany and France as well. 

In in the land of the brave and formerly free, the Decider has rolled out his express lanes in the sky department, apparently not appreciating that getting to New Hampshire from LA is less of an issue than getting from the parking lot to the gate. Once HR 1955 is rubber-stamped, I will see you in the camps for that one, I'm sure.

Tales of Collision Avoidance

Sometimes, Universe lines up news stories in a particular way that points to a higher intelligence of some kind playing with us all - in a wry sort of way.  I'll show you what I mean:  There's a ,story out of San Francisco that the Coast Guard Vessel Traffic System (VTS) did not warn that ship last week that it was about to swipe a Bay Bridge tower.  But, while that collision avoidance system didn't work, we're reading about how a cockpit collision avoidance system avoided a potential air tragedy on Tuesday night at 25,000 feet over Indiana.

While reading about how an A-340 was involved in an on-the-ground collision in Paris, and at the most zoomed out, step as far back as you can to see it level, there's the question of when earth will collide with the dust ball from Comet Holmes.

There's Universe, tweaking monkey mind again, with the 'collision avoidance koan'.  "Hand me my brush and the rice paper, Gozo, I must write a collision haiku to capture this thought."

Meantime, Back at the Coffee...

"Starbucks issues profits warning and scraps plans as customers stay away" headlines a report.  The coffee's still good, just folks is broke I figure.

Unreported Inflation is Why

A reader sends this:

"The inflation cover-up is just amazing. It will go down in the books, as they say.

I was at the Post Office this afternoon when it dawned on me, postage doesn't go up that often so it tends to "damp out" swings in volatile up and down price components. So, could it serve as a proxy for true inflation? Is it a number the gov't can't afford to tweak? To wit, if my memory serves me, $4.60 Priority envelope today, $3.85 a year ago, I believe. 19.5% increase ...

Better check the dates, but I think this is correct. "

Quick!  Get the Hedonic Adjustment Team in here, pronto!  Adjust this out by saying "people are using more email which is free, so this won't matter..."

Meantime, another reader sends this little truth detector:

"Someone on a grocery/couponing website I frequent posted this interesting link. It breaks out the food increases by category and shows double digit inflation on staples in the American diet.

http://www.mindfully.org/Food/2007/Price-Foods-Rising14aug07.htm "

Chemtrails and Droughts

Inquiring Readers want to know...

"George,

Is there enough evidence to link the chemtrails to the drought in the Southeast USA?

Consider the implications if it's so, and by design..."

If I knew, I wouldn't be alive, would I?  Meantime, the water situation in Connecticut grows tense, along with the Desert Southeast.

First off, will the reader who sent in the multi-grain information give us an update on pricing, as several readers are saying their best price is over $40- for a 50 lb. sack of the multi-grains mentioned?

Next: Keep a stock of pasta on hand.  There's a pasta shortage looming in Italy right now.

A reader sends this:

"I just had to weigh in (no pun intended) on the food idea. I have been a long time frugal type person so it wasn't hard to adjust to the lack of income being laid off sent us into.. We, like you, have started on our quest to being self sufficient. One of the tips I would like to inject is something I have done for years. While preparing veggies (canned or fresh) we usually have a few spoonfuls left over at the end of every meal and I place them into plastic containers (juice & all)and freeze them to make soup/stew from at a later date.. You may also freeze left over rice and potatoes (the potatoes do get a bit grainy). Meat leftovers should be separated beef from chicken etc. You save alot more than you would imagine and the soups, stews or goulash never taste the same as it has different ingredients each time. The spices used for the individual items make reseasoning not necessary so you save on that too. We have a small boxwood stove in the kitchen used for both cooking & heat and these dishes smell wonderful cooking all day as you heat the house. I also use this method to cook beans and chili and most anything you could cook in a Crockpot. One other thing, since I know that you are raising chickens as we are I have found that you can freeze eggs for later use (when the chicks quit laying). I use leftover yogurt containers and all you have to do it stir the eggs (like you would for scrambling) and pour 2-3 into each container then freeze. They come in real handy for cornbread, cakes or even breakfast! Just wanted to add my 2 cents worth. Keep up the good work and I totally agree with you in that I will do without most anything to keep my internet on............dial-up is slow but, MUCH better than nothing! "

And last, but not least, several good recipes for Cuban Bread have come in.  Try this one, or this one.  Some disagreement on whether it's best to pre-heat or start from a cold over - but that's the joy of experimenting, huh?  I would expect the cold start and a water wash to yield a crisper loaf, but I'm an amateur in this area.  Tweaking mandatory for whole wheat/unbleached, home ground flour, of course.  And don't skip the salt!  I tried that once and got bricks.

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Thursday November 16, 2007

What's a "Non-financial Asset"?

The Financial Account Standards Board issued a press release on Wednesday, which has us wondering if the level 3/ tier-three CMO/CDO paper will be spelled out by the major players in their January financials as previously believed with Rule 157 going into effect today:

"FASB Rejects Deferral of Statement 157 for Financial Assets and Liabilities Partial Deferral Granted for Nonfinancial Assets and Nonfinancial Liabilities

Norwalk, CT, November 14, 2007—At its Board meeting today, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) reaffirmed its vote against a blanket deferral of Statement 157, Fair Value Measurements. For fiscal years beginning after November 15, 2007, companies will be required to implement the standard for financial assets and liabilities, as well as for any other assets and liabilities that are carried at fair value on a recurring basis in financial statements. As a result, Statement 157 becomes effective as originally scheduled in accounting for the financial assets and liabilities of financial institutions.

The Board did, however, provide a one year deferral for the implementation of Statement 157 for other nonfinancial assets and liabilities. [emphasis added - G]  An exposure draft will be issued for comment in the near future on this partial deferral. The audiocast of the November 14th meeting is currently available at www.fasb.org. More information about topics discussed and decisions reached at the meeting will also be posted on the FASB website in the coming days. "

I've got a call in to the FASB with a really simple Yes or No question:  Does this mean the financial outfits are off the hook on their Level Three/Third Tier asset reporting confessionals?  While the FASB suggested that's more a question for the SEC, but they have promised to get back to me...  We shall see.

Creeping Fascism

Well, this isn't creeping - this is out and out running.  The UK's Daily Mail reports UK subjects will soon be required to answer 53 questions about their travel plans before they'll be allowed to go anywhere.

So, do you still think the internet discussions about the evolving Police State are just hyperbole?

Liberty Dollar Email

Meantime, several readers have forwarded us an email saying that the FBI and Secret Service raided the offices of the Liberty Dollar and have carted off records and such.  I've placed several phone calls to the group to check out the reports, but no one is answering their phones.  I will keep you posted.

This would be especially interesting because the group (which has sued the government) reportedly just received and put on sale Ron Paul Dollars. Coincidence? 

CPI: American Businesses' Amazing Generosity

So, as I mentioned in yesterday's report, as the new Producer Price Index came out, the price of finished goods, on a non-adjusted basis was up 6.1%  (bottom of column 6, Table A) on an annualized basis.  And, a reasonable person (like the People's Economist here) might even go so far as to offer that because there's a 25.7% increase (unadjusted, bottom of column 9, Table B) that there's a whopper of an inflation burst off in the distance.

Even more amazing was the performance of the stock market on Wednesday, which kicked off with a decent gain on the report, although apparently, someone besides me had sobered up to the implications of this by the end of the session.

I don't know about you, but I get really uncomfortable when numbers don't 'tie together' well.  My nervousness about statistical reports like PPI and this morning's CPI stems from what seems to be, at best, a 'ships passing in the night' kind of relationship.  In my dunderheaded search for economic truth (and the Easter Bunny) I started looking at the PPI/CPI relationship last month and scratching my head.

Today, I'm on the verge of developing mange because the scratching hasn't gotten me anywhere.  The previous month, when finished goods were also up a fair chunk (*unadjusted) I was treated to an 'offishul' report that Chained Urban CPI was up only 2.3% compared with year-ago figures.  Even more interesting, last month's 'core rate' (ex food and energy) was up only 2.1%.

This gets me to this morning's point:  American business is incredibly generous because they are eating, if I've got this right, the spread between increasing finished goods pricing (about 6% annualized last month) and CPI, arguably only 2.1% last month basis chained C-CPI-U.  (Not to be confused with Yippee Ki Yi Yay, another measure of consumer intelligence).

Fast forward to this morning's CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The October level of 208.936 (1982-84=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in October 2006.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.2 percent in October prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 204.338 (1982-84=100) was 3.7 percent higher than in October 2006.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The October level of 120.700 (December 1999=100) was 3.0 percent higher than in October 2006. Please note that the indexes for the post-2005 period are subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in October, the same as in September. The index for energy advanced 1.4 percent in October, with the index for petroleum-based energy up 1.5 percent and the index for energy services, 1.3 percent. The food index rose 0.3 percent in October. The index for food at home also rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 0.2 percent in October.

The unadjusted core rate is 2.2%, so when I look at PPI finished goods up 6.1% and the core up only 2.2, I can only concluded that here in the Land of Milk and Honey (and oil wars), Business really is good and generous and is eating nearly 4% annualized, for which we should bow down and give mighty thanks.

Foreclosure Confusion

I think I've mentioned this in the past, and now a judge has raised the issue: When a bunch of mortgages are rolled up into a CMO (collateralized mortgage obligation, a piece of paper that acts something like a bond from an investment standpoint), who owns the debt.  In other words, does the debt/obligation go to the original maker, or is it passed to the CMO owner. In Eastern Ohio, the CMO owners got stiffed.  This is a biggie to watch.  Hit the NY Times today, too.  See the Barron's article "Mortgage woes damage a GE Bond Fund", too.

That Other Lit Fuse

A reader has nailed this one:  Once the hedge fund whining dies down, look for big problems for insurance companies (and banks that self-insured) with their private mortgage insurance (PMI):

"Preface: I read your column, well, every day and find it interesting and sometimes "out there", which is my way of stating that I am "catching up" to your perspective.

Question: What happened to all of the PMI that the sub-prime mortgages were backed with?

Related:

Shouldn't the bankers be delighted to cash in on all of that insurance? Shouldn't all parties involved, minus the defaulter and Insurer, be flush with cash? ( which I suppose would be invested in the stock of the insuring agency and other speculative deals like the underwriting of more sub-primes to keep the bubble party going; ok a bit out there here.)

Shouldn't PMI rates be going up nationally to adjust for the defaults? (even more inflation here for folks who put less than 20% down, who must continue to pay PMI (now questionable) on their non-defaulted mortgages.)

And if mortgage brokers, or loan holders, weren't getting these Insurance policies, isn't that fraud, like charging something for nothing? (also see "scam", ergo "against the law", so where / when is the prosecution of these scofflaws by DOJ and the other law enforcing agencies?)

The banks are supposed to be so protected from default by PMI, that going after the defaulting party was a moot point. They then double collect on the resale. ( I really mean "cover remaining costs".) So why is this even a crisis, the bubble should be paying off. Insurance companies might howl, but then, the premiums were designed with default risk in mind, hence it's existence, so it's a write off. I remember the less money down for the loan, the higher the premium, so everything is factored into the rate structure.

Why is the government now making cash easier to obtain for companies that have questionable practices without instituting some MAJOR reforms? ( more good money down the drain, isn't it? Crime pays and the government bails out criminals, but not John Q. Public?)"

Answers:  The plight of the PMI issuers will come next, but many have worry-wart Compliance departments that have muzzled truth tellers.  So this will all start coming out in the post Nov. 22 slide into January. Oh, and about reforms?  Why change anything?  The guys at the top and the hedge funds which have the financial media's ear, will still come out OK.  There, feel better? 

Iran/Syria Campuses

Reports are starting to circulate on the net about a certain University in Maryland looking at plans to deliver degree oriented coursework to American service personal in  Iran and Syria.  Contingency planning?  Oh, I'd bet a bit more than that.

Big Quake

The 7.7 in Chile yesterday is just a taste of what's to come - more big movement coming in December, linguistically, and you don't even want to know about October 2008...

Chemtrails

I don't know how I missed this one, but you have got to watch the Shreveport Louisiana Channel 12 report on chemtrails that was on last week.

The Runs

Vegas last night.  Who cares?  Wait till the January culling on financial disclosures. Even then, when what's coming in October 2008 arrives, voting may not be your biggest concern, sorry.

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Million dollar idea:  How about a "Political Drama Addiction Treatment Center".  You go in and sit down and and someone turns the TV off.   Sheesh.

Your Shorts: Anger and Accolades

My discussion this week of shorting markets touched a few nerves.  And, on both sides of the issue.  Here are a couple of examples of the anger and the accolades:

"George, have you lost you mind? (no offense, I appreciate your writings)

 

What does the “participation in evil” mean?

 

So I cannot short Walmart but I can be long in the stock? Why is that less evil? By supporting that company I support slave labor and such. (His opinion, not mine, - G)

 

What about foreclosures? Can I act on one and buy it? Where’s the rationale when all those suckers got 2nd and 3rd mortgages and bought fancy cars while I was driving my old beat up truck? Driving up my property taxes.

 

It’s not about finding the next sucker. It’s about investing and using the profits to make your world a better place. I have no problem shorting GM and profiting from it so I can invest in greener alternatives (like a Toyota hybrid). I have no problem shorting Walmart and using my profits in my local community."

Another offered this:

"If people promise to give back all the money they made while the markets went up with the out of control FED induced loose money policy, I will not short the market when it crashes. Many of us traders may have many mouths to feed before this is all over. I happen to have a very big family."

And then there were accolades:

"Your "Clean Money, Dirty Money" post today may be the most educational, profound piece of writing on real and abstract markets that I've ever read, and as a former mutual funds marketer/believer, I've read a lot.

Truly a work of Genius, and badly needed reading by everyone from the Little Man, who needs to understand what is rocking his world, to the corpulent, greedy CorpGuv exec who needs to realize the depth of his sin before it is too late to make atonement for it. Not that he will.

Thanks for being there."

And on that note, after reading dozens of well-thought out responses, I suppose we should leave it there. Something to at least think about now and then.   Me?  I still have this idealistic vision of a world where making money is not the most important thing.  The excessive emphasis seems to have burned out resources, caused wars, and have you noticed where oil's been headed?  Or, the purchasing power of your money?   It's what goes into the head and heart that has a chance of transcending the end of this life -- that's what matters when you zoom out a ways.  And we're all going there, so there's much work to do to be ready.

On the other hand, my financial moderation (even with access to the time machine/ predictive linguistics, which is a whole other layer of karmic burden) is why I won't be getting a Porsche 911 for Christmas again this year.  Oh well... We can certainly, as civilized humans, agree to disagree.  Thank you for your comments, I've read every one, but there's too much to-do list and too little George to answer each in depth.  But my sincere thanks.

(clip and save - this might be useful sometime soon)

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Coping: Beyond Raisin Bran

OK, we've covered living on raisin bran two meals a day and how beans are an alternative, especially with a 50-pound sack of rice and a few bucks worth of spices.  Today, another reader offers ideas for our coping with foreclosure/unemployment shared helpful hints section...

"Could not help but feel for the family eating raisin bran. My family has found a wonderful cheap food source we have used for years and always like it. We buy a 50 lb sack of cracked grains, can be a 9-grain or a 6-grain cracked cereal. The 50 lb bag costs about $13 from a warehouse dealing in bulk goods (we use Honeyville Grain).

It can be boiled and is ready as a hot cereal in 5 minutes, a serving is made from 1/3 cup dry before boiling, then just add a little salt and brown sugar. Also an old farmer told me his favorite was rolled wheat, about the same price, but it takes 45 minutes to cook, but excellent for a change of flavor and texture.

I have a son that drives an 18-wheeler around the country. He will swing by and we will fill up a container for him and he prefers it on the road, keeps him steady without getting put to sleep by a restaurant meal. Another son with a family of five finds that the 50 lb bag will last his family 4-5 months with heavy usage every day. That stretches $13 about as far as it can go! My entire family of grown children love it and do not get tired of it. Thought I should pass this along since a lot of people don't know what is available outside of the grocery store aisles.

Keep up the good work,"

Keep sending along ideas - I'm still looking for that Cuban Bread recipe that appeared in the old National Observer (a then weekly lifestyle oriented publication of Dow Jones) in about 1968-1970 I think.  It was incredible.  And cheap. 

Elaine and I recently replaced our water heater (along with a good-sized area of flooring that was damaged when it let go) and framing in the new water heater, the time monks suggested that we put a metal grate over it (it's a 48-gallon quick recovery 'low boy' design) so we can use the small amount of heat it gives off as a bread raising station.  Fine idea...

A local ham radio friend says "Don't forget to get a library card!" Agreed. Best value in America today, next to the marriage license, if you happen to get into a marriage that works out well, that is. (Otherwise, the marriage license is the most expensive thing you can buy...)  Shop carefully!

Want a pet?  You can get a 'designer dog' at the pound for the cost of shots most places, tells a happy Samoyed owner. Rescues are right. My eldest daughter's Labradoodle is a marvelous pet.

And one more point to stew on:

"I have found that soup is an excellent means of extracting nutrients from food. Normally we do not chew food well enough, and so, do not extract all the nutrients from those big pieces of food we swallow.

Making them into soup softens the food and does a preliminary nutrient extraction. It is really surprising how long soup keeps you "filled."

I guess ... this provides more nutrients per buck."

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Around Here: First Rate Hosting Deal

I don't often put in free plugs for people's businesses, but after having had the UrbanSurvival web site on a number of different hosting company platforms, I have been pleased as punch with www.emwd.com.  Their prices are good  - I even set myself up as an affiliate, not to get rich, but because I really get first rate service from them.  So in that vein, I wanted to pass along an email which came in this week about a genuinely good deal on today only:

Dear EMWD Clients:

Nov 15th will be my 40th birthday! Okay, its not that exciting however in celebration of God's goodness to me in all of these years, I am offering a 40% discount on all domain and hosting packages except our mailman service.

This Thursday would be a great time to place an order for a new domain name or a new hosting package. Let your friends know as well and be sure to pass on to them the following coupon codes:

B-DAY01 - to receive 40% off a new domain name

B-DAY02 - to receive 40% off any of our hosting packages except our mailman service.

Please keep in mind that the above coupon codes will only be valid on Nov 15th. The discount is also good for domain name transfers.

I have appreciated all of your business and friendships through the years and we look forward to serving you with all of our hearts in the years to come.

Yours in Christ, Brian Carpenter, Owner EMWD.com

I don't know if you've noticed, but for a 'hobby' site, UrbanSurvival has an 'up-time' record since I moved to EMWD a year ago August that's very good.  And, the mirror site (which you should bookmark, www.independencejournal.com has performed equally well.  EMWD does a fine job of applying the latest patches and such, which seems to have kept for the moment, the hackers at bay.

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Because I have on occasion gotten a day or three behind in setting up new subscribers to www.Peoplenomics.com, our weekly in-depth reports, I am setting up an automated account management system over the next few weeks.  More to follow.

Peoplenomics: A Bad Thing to Hear

Elaine and I were just about to sit down to dinner when an old friend called Friday night, concerned about how things were looking in the fixed income market. I've got sources in a lot of places and some of them are seeing the market priced as though the foreclosure rate will increase to where between 20% and 50% of all subprime loans will be foreclosed on in the near future. Later this week, a spreadsheet I'm putting together based on how the next two years will look, but if you can wrap your head around 1-million+ being foreclosed on, you'll get the idea. But, that's not the really bad news. It actually gets worse from there...

                   More for Subscribers      Subscription Information

Pass It On

UrbanSurvival depends on having lots of people read this site.  If you have friends, tell them about the daily reports and if you own a web site, a link to this site is always appreciated.  If you have Outlook/Express click here to send an email to someone you know telling them what a strange site you've found.

Can you trust Politicians?

To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here.  They're just $5.  And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.

Guide to Living Cheaply

Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now.  It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...

Last week's report is here.

November 14, 2007

PPPee
It's Producer Price Index time again, one of my favorite of the rearview economic indicators because it either reveals the pending bankruptcy of industry, or the shading of government numbers to make things seem better than they really are.  Fortunately, most people don't think about them. So a little truth can leak out here and there.

"How can you say that?" you're wondering.  Simple.  It seems like every time I look at the PPP report, it seems like there's always more price inflation in the crude goods than ever shows up in the finished goods.  I haven't got the time to run the numbers out, but it would be a Grade A econ paper for someone with more time to work on.  If crude goods keep going up 5-20% more than finished goods, it implies that someone in the production pipeline is absorbing a loss, month after month, after month.  But, we all know that can't be.  So, where is the missing loss?

One possibility is that the price increases at the crude level were over-reported.  Hundred dollar oil says no, those input costs are really going up.  On the other end, finished goods prices might be significantly under reported.  You go think about it.  I'll explain in a sec.

Meanwhile, here are today's numbers:

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.1 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 1.1-percent advance in September and a 1.4-percent decline in August. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods inched up 0.1 percent in October after rising 0.4 percent in September, and the crude goods index increased 2.4 percent following a 0.1-percent gain in the previous month.

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Among finished goods, prices for consumer foods moved up 1.0 percent in October following a 1.5-percent increase in the prior month. The index for energy goods decreased 0.8 percent after rising 4.1 percent a month earlier. The index for goods other than foods and energy was unchanged after edging up 0.1 percent in September.

 

Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved up 0.7 percent in October to 168.6 (1982 = 100). From October 2006 to October 2007, finished goods prices advanced 6.1 percent. Over the same period, the index for finished energy goods climbed 16.6 percent, prices for finished consumer foods rose 7.1 percent, and the index for finished goods other than foods and energy increased 2.5 percent. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by intermediate goods producers advanced 5.6 percent, while the crude goods index jumped 25.7 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

OK, here's the part I'm talking about that bothers me:  Go to Table A: Change in finished goods from 12-months ago (unadjusted) 6.1%.  bad news for Fed rate drop cheerleaders.  Bullet point: Right there, you know that the 3% inflation in CPI is a statistical wet dream: Business is not eating 3% a year.  Guaranteed.

And then in Table B, the change in Crude Goods 12 mo, unadjusted is 25.7%!

I want to know where the hell are all these charitable businesses???!!!   They sure aren't keeping my CPI/Personal spending at 3% per year, or worse, the measly 2.3% Social Security increase.  Are they where you live?

Clean Money, Dirty Money

Something I wrote about yesterday morning hit a nerve and deserves a bit of serious consideration this morning so you don't misunderstand what I (and the time monks) are talking about when we get into a discussion of what's an ethical investment and what's not.  First, here's what a reader sent it that prompts the discussion of 'ethical investing' as the key topic of the day: