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| | Site Disclaimer| Publisher's Note | Elliott Wave | Technorati Profile | Hoisting the Earthquake Watch The predictive linguistics from www.halfpasthuman.com seem to indicate that we can talk in public a bit about the coming earthquake that appears in modelspace. Modelspace, of course, being the 3D workspace where Cliff and Igor (the 'time monks') look at language shift on the internet and seem to get a reasonable outlook as to what to expect in future (news/media/mainstream) development that intrude into consciousness.
We started watching this in modelspace some time back when it appeared that over late summer/fall, there would be a series of three major quakes - and by major, we're thinking 8.0 or larger. The first of these occurred with the August 15th quake in Peru which not only hit 8.0, but lasted two minutes, and did considerable damage. This started something of a 'timer' in modelspace, because the second quake would occur and then the third (possibly as a 'double quake' would occur at somewhere between the same interval, to something longer, but short of a double of time..
The second in the series came on September 12th, when an 8.4 hit the southern Sumatra (Indonesia) area. Here, the damage wasn't as severe, but it was a major quake - larger than the first, by some measure.
The third quake, which linguistically is just ahead in the near future, should be at (or above) these kinds of levels, but the only question is where it will happen. Again, looking at the linguistic shifts of language, there seem to be two cases.
The first is that the Big One will come in the Western archipelago of Indonesia. If it is to hit here, it should occur before the 18th of the month, and it is likely to be a double quake. The kind where people run outside when it happens, stay outdoors for a while, and then just as they are about to return to their homes, the second quake (around same magnitude) strikes and more damage is done..
The second is more problematic: In this case, what happens is that a 'north of the equator' volcano pops off, and the impact of the plume from that sudden spitting of ash and gasses is large enough to disrupt air traffic for about a day and a half (or longer). If this happens, then the third quake in the series would like seem to occur in a region described as the northern USA West Coast, which might cover the range from Southeast Alaska, south to a region just north of San Francisco. --- If you've been reading the fine print of the global news stream, you might be aware that there was indeed a volcano that popped off in New Zealand earlier this week, but it seems (no telling how accurate this new science will be on this) that it doesn't first. The reason is that Igor, whose background includes a little military this and that, says the language vectors seem to point to northern hemisphere are route disruptions.
True, we have a volcano spewing forth in Hawaii, but it's a lava flow event, and not the kind of thing that has disrupted air traffic for a couple of days. If we see a major sudden and explosive event on the Kamchatka Peninsula, or in the Bering Strait, or Alaska, such that either Asian or European air travel with the USA is rerouted, then I would not want to be on the US West Coast late in the month. But, no guarantees, and yes, I am still headed for Seattle for a quick in & out trip for my mother's 92nd birthday in late October. And strategically placed earthquake might cause me to pack walking shoes, outdoor gear, water, and change to a single-layer hotel accommodation. Here's a link to bookmark for future reference: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Speaking of Kamchatka I notice the Russians are touting the energy potential of that region.
Investing This Week I was just sitting here idly wondering how the market did this week and it was sure nothing to write home about. It opened the week at 13,822 and closed at 13,896. OK, that would be a 5-1oths of one percent gain for the week and maybe as high as a 28% annual rate - OK if we had a steady-state dollar. But, alas, we don't.
The dollar went from .7099 Euro Monday down to .7049 today. That's a loss of 7-tenths of one percent in a week..
Are you seeing the pattern here? The dollar goes down in purchasing power, and the Dow goes up - as I have explained before, what's appreciating is not the real purchasing power of the Dow, but more likely, the repricing of the Dow as a financial asset, the same way real estate seems to go up in ap period of high inflation, when the truth is, it's just more dollars chasing the same utility value.
As a check of my theory, I would expect if the dollar went down 7-10ths of one percent this week that the price of gold would go up by some offsetting amount. Kitco's chart shows gold was around $726.10 -735.90 on Monday of this week. All things being connected in Universe, I would expect gold to be up between 5-10th's of 1% (vis the Dow) or 7-10th's of a percent (vis the Euro).
That would be $726.10*1.005 = $729.73 Friday (Dow and low Monday gold case) or $735.90*1.007= $741.05 (Euro, high case). When you look at Friday's Kitco chart, you can see that the high case (vis-a-vis the Euro) is very close.
My personal conclusion is that whatever gains are being posted by the Dow and other paper assets this week, the real driver is the decline of the US Dollar. I am waiting for someone to starting spinning up the "strong dollar policy myth' as a chance to really load up on metals, grains, anything of intrinsic (as opposed to theoretical) value. Whatever: Gold is at a 27-year high.
Pakistan's Rioting More pressure on the US-backed/embraced Musharraf government to step aside.
Bust the Monks That's what the government of Myanmar (Burma) was up to on Friday. Can't have people chanting about peace - especially when they can be great junior corporate producers if well-confined to strict political boundaries. No oil, no intervention. Or is that the total story?
The Revolution Meme It's breaking out all over the place. I mean besides Iraq, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. You've got continuing tensions in once-Soviet Georgia. And the EU is wondering what to do if Kosovo goes independent? Can't have them managing their own resources, don'tcha know. --- Iran, meantime, is signing deals with Venezuela and Bolivia. Why are these countries labeled as "Bush's arch enemy"? Oil and gas, pal, oil and gas and sweetheart deals. Not that we're against those, mind you. $10 gas on top of a home foreclosure would hurt a bit much...so yeah, smack down those indigenous people who want true market value...We've got the world's leading economy to defend, here. --- Did I mention the Islamic guerillas attacking the army in the Philippines? Or the rebels fighting government forces in Sri Lanka?
Brain Eater A new amoeba in Arizona is killing young people. Makes me NOT want to swim in Aridozona.
Useless News Department Jena Bush writes a book and lands on 20/20.
Useful News Department "Firmware update breaks hacked iPhones" reports PCWorld. Say "Ooops!" Microsoft has decided to keep supporting XP through July '08. I wish someone had told me that when I joined the gray screen of death Vista crowd.. --- Here at UrbanSurvival, I "upgraded" to Expression Web this week and this morning's report is the first written on this platform. The good news is that it has a feature or two more than what I lovingly call FlawedPage, and the reason was that MSFT was going to kill FP support anyway. "But how does it work?" you're thinking.
Like Vista, I do like some of the features in Expression Web. It would just be nice if they were not delivered in a semi-functional product. Got any tips on a good WYSIWYG editor which runs under Ubuntu Linux?
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
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"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Friday, September 28, 2007 Falling Dollar = Rising Oil It's so simple when you think about it: The US prints up a lot more money than increased output requires - so lots more dollars chasing goods at the international level - so it takes more of the watered down dollars to buy the same thing. So, when you read in the New York Times today that "Oil Prices Dip below $83" I wouldn't get too excited that oil prices are coming down for good.
Before this morning's flurry of economic reports, the dollar fell to a new low against the Euro. Remember the linguistics on this: "Dollar Death" or "Near Death Experience (NDE) for the dollar".
The "George Postulate": One of the things we think we've learned from watching modelspace is that the larger an event is, the more lead time we seem to get. In other words, if it's something like a couple of Olympic athletes being injured in a car/motorcycle accident prior to games in Greece, that might show up as a hot item (emotionally) perhaps only 2-3 weeks before the actual events. But when something is really big (9/11 or the Banda Aceh quake), we get months of lead time. And the dollar 'death' will be massively larger than even those events as we have a year and a half of lead time.
Now, go back and read what I was writing about in January of this year on 'dollar death':
Prescient of the time monks, eh? With the dollar bouncing off 78.05 on the market basket and buying only 0.7037 of a Euro, it seems like the Big Slide is on. Oil down? Yeah, right...for a few seconds maybe. Gold, meantime, as a 'truth detector' is up more than $9 as I write. Did I mention reconstructed M-3 is running 14 1/2%? Oh, my...
Personal Income The latest economic fairytale for the markets to digest today are the Personal Income and Outlays report for August. The Bureau of Economic Analysis would have you believe that:
Now, I've always watched the personal savings number - which as you will recall had put together a long string of four or five months of red ink, until the government about two months back decided to 'revise' that indicator so that it didn't look so bad. As a result, things are just peachy - government says so:
I've got a bridge I'm selling....I'd guess the real personal savings rate is more like -1.7% using the old method - obsolete, of course, because the number was not good.
You can tell with a half a second of thought, that a 20% collapse of home prices in many areas over the past two years makes an increase in personal savings impossible - falling home equity (most folks biggest savings account) ensures that. The statistical trick shot is this: You only count underlying change in house values when its convenient - you don't want a 20% decline in home equity showing up because that would 'color' reports of prosperity! See? I'm a gloomster for even mentioning it. I'm so ashamed.
Home equity really is savings, in that with a refi you can pull money out. But rather than admit to the decline in home equity, (which would make DPI more reflective of changes in personal net worth) seems the stats (at least as I read them) only look at home equity when a refi is done, and THAT was only changed when refi's dried up. How convenient!
Energies From Space While the earth has recently had a number of gamma ray bursts (GRB's) that began to fit some of the linguistic descriptors for the "energies from space" that have been mentioned prominently by the time monks in their work, we've got more 'energy from space' stuff showing up in the headlines now - right on schedule.
"Scientists discover deep space signal" headlines ninemsn.com out of Australia. Elsewhere, we read that the actual event happened about 6-years ago and was only 5-milliseconds in duration. Nevertheless, its the news of right now because the discovery is just being sorted out from piles of data. It reads to me like the Small Magellanic Cloud and the linguistic cloud of chatter around the internet which we study, might have something in common. A case of 'as above, so below'? --- A few other things are out their on the 'energies from space' meme which are floating around under the perception threshold for much of the US sheeplery. For example, a report out of "The Hindu" online (India) that suggests many human communicable diseases may actually get here froim space. --- Then we have the follow-up reports on that Peruvian meteor impact about two weeks ago. A team of Canadian and Bolivian scientists have done some research and yes, it was a meteor, and no, there apparently weren't really hundreds of sick people from it - seems it was more likely a local form of hysteria. --- Did I mention the summer/fall quavers are grumbling along - Those'd be the 5.5 and up quakes prior to the Big One I expect between now and Oct 17-18?
Food Shortages Linguistically, the time machine run, fueled by language shifts on the internet still has the US arrival late this year and next spring, but already the term "food shortage" is appearing around the edges of the news. Take for example "John Howard says Australian Food Shortage will Affect Prices."
Curiously a shortage of trained agriculture workers, too. And good bye many small farms. --- Mendocino, California has a water shortage developing.
Hola Lorenzo
Meantime, the track for tropic storm Karen looks like it will take a left turn toward the Bahamas by the middle of next week, so by next weekend we could be looking at a hurricane somewhere along the eastern seaboard.
Cancer-Divorce Link Seems there are some statistical links between certain types of cancers and divorce. Not exactly surprising, but interesting.
Feeding the "New War" Meme We're also in the period when the "new war" should be making an appearance. Not as out & out fighting, but the vague outline of future conflict should be slipping into the edges of the news. And what do you know? "Russia promises retaliation if weapons deployed in space" headlines a Russian news service. --- Meantime, I've been waiting for word of one grassroots American response to the re-energized Russian threat to become public before talking about it; but now that it's out...
Check out what Huntsville, Alabama has done - they are bringing back basic Civil Defense capabilities for the community. Although CONgress wiped out such funding in 1992, I understand that city officials (and those involved in the project) have been amazed at who little it costs to get prior Civil Defense capability retooled and operable again. --- So that's the good news. Meantime, in ham radio circles, a debate continues whether ham radio operators who volunteer for things like the Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service (RACES), the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES), or the Military Affiliate Radio System (MARS) should have to undergo a background check. One ham writing to Steve Quayle that because of this looming requirement on volunteers. "I have dropped out of MARS, ARES, and RACES. I have worked about 60 different kinds of emergencies over the past 47 years, including Katrina, many fires, floods, etc. "
Having been a ham myself for 44-years (it's been that long?) I remember the "old days" when a radio operators license required disclosure of all felonies. The current application form (605) requires a ham to certify that "The applicant/licensee certifies that neither the applicant/licensee nor any other party to the application is subject to a denial of Federal benefits pursuant to Section 5301 of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988, 21 U.S.C. § 862, because of a conviction for possession or distribution of a controlled substance. This certification does not apply to applications filed in services exempted under Section 1.2002(c) of the rules, 47 CFR § 1.2002(c). See Section 1.2002(b) of the rules, 47 CFR § 1.2002(b), for the definition of “party to the application” as used in this certification."
Seems to me that simply adding a
social security number to the application form, (I thought it was there) would
let the FCC staff easily check on criminal history at the time a license was
issued. But then again, that would be too simple, huh? Instead, we
get talk of "background checks"
If al Qaeda, or some other 'terrorist' organization, wants good communications before the commission of a crime, all they have to do is buy disposable cells phones - you know, the kind that are made into IED's in Iraq. If they want communications after an attack, they can buy FRS radios at a zillion places (no license). The notion that some terrorist is going to sink thousands into a tower, beam, transceiver, and stick around to move health & welfare traffic after a serious terrorist strike, or some hurricane coming ashore, major earthquake, etc., for some nefarious purpose, boggles my mind. But so does this:
Government/Security for Show I suppose that ham radio background checks might be lumped into the same category as a lot of other government actions, which I file under "Government for Show" as opposed to my nearly empty file "Government for Results". For example, has you read the Government Accountability Office Report on border protection? Some highlights (my emphasis added):
Seems that highlighted area would quality for my "Government for Show" file...
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
More for Subscribers Subscription Information
"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Thursday September 27, 2007 Was an Iran War Averted? Probably the most interesting thing going around the 'net today is the report from Wayne Madsen's site (reproduced by the Oregon Truth Alliance) that claims those nuclear weapons on the B-52 about the beginning of the month really were really headed for Iran and a strike on Tehran's uranium enrichment project. However, goes the report, officers in the Air Force didn't go along with the plan - and as a result the Israeli's struck (instead?) at the Syrian 'nuclear' installation - or so it seems to fit.
Sure, nukes are a little crude, especially when companies like Raytheon are pushing ahead with directed energy solutions for the Defense Department, but as I've explained before, the use of a nuke (or six) in Iran would be eminently deniable because any radiation released would simply be cited as proof that what was bombed was a nuclear enrichment site. So simple, in PR terms.
Naturally, the whole picture/story is clouded from public view, but the idea of a procedural boner letting five/six nuclear warheads go on fly-about is pretty far fetched. The US military doesn't have lax procedures when it comes to weapons that can touch off world war. Sorry, the 'offishul' B-52 story is still fishy.
Hill Climb Now that it's out in the open that George Bush is prompting Hillary Clinton how to continue the unpopular war (which the democorps have become completely unable/unwilling to derail) once she's installed in the White House, the democratic challengers are seeming to target her.
I guess we'll end up with the president that the corpgov powers-that-be decide on - through their funding, promotion, and connections, huh? Ever wish Nun of the Above was running?
The Climate Charade The Bush folks are putting on a big show over a climate change conference going on today.
I have become a little suspicious about 'climate change' and 'carbon credits' when I found out I could sell the carbon credits from our ranch here in Texas to a 'carbon credit aggregator' who in turn would sell them to big polluters on an exchange where prices are bid.
Besides the absurdity of the whole concept, which revolves around the notion that if I promise to keep growing trees here at Uretopia ranch for the next 10-years, then it's OK for polluters to keep polluting that long, this financial wheeler-dealer scam would pay me about $1/per acre ($30 a year) for the ten years ($300) and would sell the credits to big corps for about $4-$5 a 'credit' (but who knows what they'd be worth in 5-years, right?).
But now that I see how as a land-owner, I would get boxed into a 10-year commitment while the printing press people are going nuts but the polluters could buy their stairway to environmental heaven, I think I want no part of it.
But, what is clear is that with a spread like this (Ure gets about $1/acre for pasture, end credit buyer pays around $4, middlemen suck up - as best I can figure - about $3)
This is wild. I'd be out on a corp jet too, flying all over the country promoting global warming and the carbon credit scam! Where else could I buy something for 25-30% of retail, sell it, and not have to produce a product? Just some paperwork for folks who were going to do something anyway (keep tree farming/ranching) and extract some tribute from polluters - Wow (as that satellite commercial says) "How cool is that?"
Say, you don't suppose that's what Al Gore and Bill Clinton are all excited about, do you?
This may be hard to fathom, but I'm a rancher (a very very small one, but a rancher, nevertheless) and I love the environment as much as anyone. But do I want to get sucked in to a non-inflation-adjusted 10-year commitment and get only a quarter of what the end credit buyer pays? Pappy didn't raise no fool.
Retooled GDP No surprises to speak of here:
The part that bites us non-elite/regular humans on the butt is buried down in Table 1: Disposable Personal Income was up for the quarter at an annual rate of 0.6%, so if you feel like you worked your butt off, and didn't get anywhere, is sort of shows up that way (albeit buried) in the numbers. Speaking of burying things...
Dollar Woes According to the time machine/predictive linguistics work, we're in a period at the moment of 'near death experience for the dollar' which could flop over to 'death of the dollar' - we'll be waiting to see what the outcome is. But, while we're waiting, the dollar continues to tank (see chart above) and at the moment is coming down to about 78 on the market basket. Oh, look! My silver commodity calls will likely go up!
The Euro has hit another record high today, and with that (as you'd expect) oil has continued to be strong. Although in fairness, there is some weather shaping up in the Gulf of Mexico. My take? Oh, the 5-day tracking map doesn't look too threatening - at least for now.
Dollar bounced off 78.12 on the basket - oh boy...is this what a tension building period feels like, Mr. Science?
Those Dangerous Monks The military junta in Myanmar (the country formerly known as Burma) has decided to raid those 'dangerous monks' that have been chanting about love and peace. Yup, can't have that kind of thing, now, can we?
China is urging restraint by all parties in the country. Burma/Myanmar has a lot of natural resources, but they're not sitting on enough oil (and just modest natural gas exports) to be worthy of a nuke threat or invasion to install freedom. Much more on the table elsewhere, eh?
Hack the Grid? A government video, obtained by the AP, shows the kind of damage that could be done if hackers were to take over the power grid in America. You mean you don't know what SCADA hackers are about? Hmm......then you probably don't know who 2600 is, either...
(I keep thinking about subscribing, but wonder if their site is really safe....pondering...) Obviously, I will have to - the article in the summer issue "Adventures in Behavioral Linguistics" calls to us...OK, I will send them money with PayPal... Wonder if that will get me on a no-fly list?
Worthy Emails My friend in Mexico, who read the report on corruption in yesterday's report sends this:
Hmmm...don't think we'd like that view...channel clicker, please? Another saw the Vietnam bridge collapse story are writes:
Around the Ranch I didn't get too much done yesterday around the ranch - client demands and the aches and pains of real work. At a dinner stockholder meeting of the local land bank Tuesday night (great steak, BTW) I managed to sit wrong while watching the slide show and presentation, pulling my Achilles tendon - so walking like a tenderfoot.
The goats seem happy enough with the HDTV and their shelter, but they have to stop calling room service for popcorn at 1 AM. The chickens have settled down, too, except that they're claiming first dibs on the 2600 magazine when it shows up..
The chickens seem to be using the time monk's Vortex speed reading software - and have pointed out the article in First Monday "Mining the Blogosphere: Age, gender and the varieties of self-expression" as a must read, along with "Can the internet cope with stress?" --- With the chickens now using their computer (well, the reassigned goat computer) I have to wonder if eating eggs from very smart chickens will somehow make me smarter? That brings up the the question: If an animal eats something dumber than them, does that dumb them down, too?
About 5:30 this morning, the cats put a "Do not disturb" note on the screen porch, so I assume they had a late night of mousing. But was it really mousing? Remind me to ask about those 976 calls on their cell phone bill...
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
More for Subscribers Subscription Information
"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Wednesday September 26, 2007 Not Such a Durable Economy New figures out from the Census Bureau today (Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories, and Orders) doesn't sound so good to me:
And, while that's going on, a financial Times Headline says "Central banks' actions fail to calm money market." so I expect the flight to things, away from paper will be around for a while, but I'm often wrong, too.
GM Strike Over That was a short one, huh? GM and the UAW have reached a tentative agreement on a new contract. The details aren't clear, but there will be a shift of retiree health care to the union trust fund and there's a report that lump sum bonuses will be paid, The other key thing is job preservation. Maybe JIT (and low inventory) worked in favor of the working people and the union after all?
The "New War" A friend of mines, a grand tactician at that, continues to scan headlines about Russia's renewed interest in rebuilding their military:
If you don't know that AD is short for air defense, you might want to read the article here. --- A couple of long-range Russian bombers pulled a long range probe off the Western US and Canada last week, so it's not like the increased tension is theoretical. But, then again, this is an emotional tension building period.
Chinese Rollover Time China's chief of its air forces is being cycled out to make way for new blood.
War Ratings The first chapter of "The War" pulled nearly 19-million viewers to PBS Sunday. It's about WWII, if you weren't among them.
Post War Costs While OIF continues, the bills for the first Gulf War keep piling up - and this week in DC the "Government faulted for response to ill veterans"
War - The Tab SecDef Gates will be asking the Senate Appropriations Committee today for another $50-billion to prosecute the wars. The Air Force meantime seems to be short $20-billion a year for the next few years.
The Merc Question MSNBC reports that private security "Guard contract in Iraq raising military worries" and tensions between the State Department and military commanders.
Email of the Day From my acquaintance the Wandering Texan, who checks in regularly from world hot spots like lunching with warlords in Afghanistan, doing a little business in the Green Zone, and I won't ask about the Four Seasons in Paris, offers this:
Well, er, yes, we are. (Dammit!)
It Figures Student math scores are up a bit in Illinois. Here in Texas, math scores are up a bit, too. Seems that was a general trend - some math increases, but the NYT says overall, reading was mixed.
Global Corruption Report So, where do you think the most corrupt countries in the world are? Burma and Somalia might be on your list if you've read Transparency International's new report. And the report is about what?
Does corruption arise in poor countries almost automatically? Perhaps, but as one report about the report headlines "West 'complicit' in Third World corruption." Lawsuit Go-round The Department of Homeland Security is suing the state of Illinois. "Over what?" you're thinking. Well, in Illinois, the state has blocked the new fedlaw that require employers to verify citizenship. Another Bridge Collapse Linguistically, there seems to be a continuation of the 'bridges, falling down' meme - that went hand in hand with some earth movement/turns to mud kind of stuff along in here. This time, a bridge collapse in Vietnam has claimed 60 lives. Chalk this one up as a construction accident; boy what a mess to look at.
What Goes Down ...Might go up. Oil is showing strength today, and now that the commodity options for October are off the table, and contracts settle Friday, I'm wondering if we will see big commodity gains next week. I'll be deploying a few bucks long commodities likely today or tomorrow on any weakness.
Vonage Patent Loss
Fly-By-Phone Air traffic controllers resorted to cell phones yesterday due to a communications outage. Please hold, I have a new altitude assignment for this number...
Moon Dance I don't often recommend you go outside and stare up into the sky. For most city-dwellers it's an unusual experience and getting out into the natural environment is a rare thing, except for the 10-second walks to the car. A worthy exception might be tonight when the moon goes full and we see this year's Harvest Moon.
DRM, Amazon, and the Chickens In yesterday's report, I told you how the chickens here at the ranch were upset with me for taking away their HDTV, putting it in the goat pen, and giving the goat's computer to the chickens and telling them it had a DVD player and there was enough UTube content to keep them busy for life.
The chickens also complained about the digital rights management software built into Windows Media Player - demanding a Ubuntu Linux computer, instead.
Well, now the chickens have one-upped me: They are asking me to cosign on an Amazon.com credit card for them so they can take advantage of Amazon's plan to sell MP3 audio tracks for 89-cents each - and best of all, says the note from the chickens, the Amazon MP3's won't have DRM built in, unlike iTunes.
"One download for each 4-dozen eggs, then," is my latest thinking. Incentives being popular with HR types, I have to believe it will work here, too. The chicken's brown organic/free range eggs fetch about $1.25 a dozen locally at wholesale.
Spending 89-cents for each $5 of revenue is extreme, but if Carnation made a fortune with their 'Contented Cows' campaign- so much so that the town of Tolt in Washington state was renamed Carnation, in fact - maybe I could do something a hot positioning statement (digital drumsticks, rockin' roosters?) might be just what the doctor ordered to explode eggs sales and start a public groundswell to change the name of Palestine, Texas.
With travel plans for next month, I always dread saying I'm going to or from Palestine TEXAS! "You're a Palestinian, huh?"
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
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"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Tuesday September 25, 2007 GM Strike Although there's a lot of attention on the appearance of the Iranian president at Columbia University on Monday, the real story on the economic front is more likely the GM strike called by the UAW. Why is it such a big deal? There's an old saying around Wall Street that 'as goes GM, so goes the market'.
If you're a believer in Dow Theory, and you look to the transport sector for help divining what's ahead for the market, then keeping an eye on GM's performance and the Dow Transport Index makes a lot of sense.
If you work for an employer, the outcome of the UAW strike against GM should give you some guidance about your personal bargaining power for things like healthcare, wage increases, and job automation.
Pleading His Country's Case I happened to take a late lunch on Monday and watched almost all of the appearance of Iran president Ahmadinejad's remarks at Columbia University. Curiously, both Elaine and I got a whole different sense of what was being said than what has come across in general media coverage, much of which was decidedly anti Ahmadinejad.
The US press has not been at all friendly to Ahmadinejad, and there are some, such as senator Mitch McConnell who are quoted as saying the event was "Handing a megalomaniac a megaphone."
Don't get me wrong, I didn't care for much of what he said - and he was slippery as an eel when it came to questions about Israel's future - but he did raise some interesting points, such as Why are the Palestinians paying for World War II?
Isolated by major Western European countries, and sitting on claimed reserves of 132.5 billion barrels of oil. there's a continuing mistrust of Iranian claims that its nuclear development is purely peaceful. On the other hand, the US doesn't exactly have clean hands on that topic, since we've been throwing around depleted uranium in neighboring Iraq to the point where "Iraqis blame U.S. depleted uranium for surge in cancer."
Elaine summed it up observing that "It was almost like coming to plead for his country's future." Seems to me like that's about right.
Ahmadinejad should be worried about western corpgov's 'precrime department' launching a preemptive strike on his nuke facilities for three very sound reasons: 1) His views on Israel's future, 2) his country's nuclear initiative, and 3) 132.5 billion barrels of corporate prosperity he's sitting on.
If Ahmadinejad would acknowledge that Israel has a right to exist, took up the West on nuclear fuel, and halved their oil reserve estimates (and let's throw in decommissioning those Sunburn missiles aimed out at the Strait of Hormuz) I expect he'd have a much better chance of steering his country from harm's way. Otherwise, I'd say the clock's still ticking.
Bush Back Channel A remarkable claim is made today that George Bush is quietly advising Hillary Clinton and top democrats so that she can "effectively prosecute the war in Iraq if elected president." Seems I better put the book "The Evangelical President" on my reading list.
Big Brother An interesting article about an "Activist silenced for fear of surveillance" in Newsday. Interesting in light of the question before congress on FISA courts - which have been apparently/reportedly ignored.
No Free Lunch - or War The administration is pressing for a temporary spending bill. Blame the democrats seems to be the Bush tactic here. Some anti-war democrats are trying to pin war limits onto spending bills, which you-know-who would then veto. So, a complicated stew and miles of copy to read through to make sense of it - if there is any..
Germany's Hello Dalai ...has China upset. They don't care for the German chancellor meeting with the Dalai Lama.
Peaceful Revolution In sizing up the confrontation developing between the military junta in Myanmar, and Buddhist monks leading a crowd estimated today at 100,000, writer Marcus Gee asks "How do you put down a protest led by by Buddhist monks carrying nothing more threatening than begging bowls and banners extolling "love and kindness"? Tough tactical question for a junta.
Shower at Staples The new Biscayne Blvd Staples store (Miami) is going for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design registry and one of the things that caught my eye was the store will "Encourage alternative transportation by installing bike racks and showers" It's warm enough six-months out of the year in Miami that this really makes sense for bike riders. --- The real breakthrough for bike commuters is something to replace the towel. Of all the problems associated with bike commuting (when it's hot and you break a sweat) that's the one thing that I haven't seen a good answer for. The clothing part is relatively simple - just caching a week's worth is simple enough. But wet towels? Ugh.
Your million dollar idea storm over the second cup of coffee might be this: Invent an alternative to the old-fashioned towel. It must be lower impact than a towel, take not much more time, and be safe. Maybe a body drier of some kind. BodyBlower. If you need a marketing guy, call me.
Markets Some home sale numbers are expected today and consumer confidence should be out at 9 AM Texas time. Gold is in a period of predictable weakness as the dollar recovers and the price is being beaten down so October deliveries can be made. The futures were down when I looked, but depending on consumer confidence that could bounce around a bit. --- Something to think about: With "German consumer confidence on a downward slope" and 19-month lows, is it really practical for the European Central Bank to wait until next year to lower rates? And, if they do, won't that have some kind of impact of the metals in terms of weakness?
Around the Ranch I've received a petition from the chickens - seems they are upset with the move of the HDTV down to the goat pen - and they claim that my giving them a computer is not fair compensation. In fact they argue that by giving them a Vista equipped computer, I've created a hostile working environment. The chickens are demanding I give them an Ubuntu Linux distribution with OpenOffice or they will find an attorney up in Tyler to take me to court.
I've argued that the Vista machine is acceptable because they can still get streaming content (almost like the TV) using the latest build of Windows Media Player. But, they're not having anything to do with it. "Too much DRM in Windows Media Player," claimed one.
I'm standing firm on this one: If the chickens are worried about DRM, then it's sort of implied that they've got content that is not licensed and that would expose the whole ranch to liability for copyright infringement. I won't put up with it. So this morning, I've put a big pot just outside the gate where they can see it. You want to see workplace intimidation, chickens, you just wait...I'll show you just how much hot water they're in.
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
More for Subscribers Subscription Information
"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Monday September 24, 2007 Elite Support Not to sound too conspiratorial, but if you ever wanted to see the way the Powers That Be operate out in the open, you have no further to go than the Drudge Report headline that "Bush Declares: Hillary will win nomination; White House calls Obama 'lazy'.
Yalies both, so don't be surprised. And while we know that George was a (Skull and) Bonesman while he was at Yale, I don't know about Hillary, but you get the point: There's a 'big club' of better than us, who support one another with a big sociopolitical network. Oh sure, the illusion of free choice is there, but it's mostly just that: illusory. It's the action arm of the corptocracy.
Simple as Pie A reader, watching Alan Greenspan promote his book asks an interesting question:
Let me put on my People's Economist lecture cape and step over to the white board. As you'll see here, in the latest BLS report, the civilian labor force in the US is about 152-million. Unemployment is about 7 million. 7 divided by 152 means about 4.6% unemployment.
As productivity comes up, and manufacturing efficiency continues to increase, how are you going to keep 152-million people employed? Basically, you have three ways to do it: Wage war, come up with a bottomless pit of job creation, and pump up the size of government.
Now, consider what would happen if peace were allowed to really break out, high school started teaching people enough so that they could get a job and get by in life again, and government were to shrink back to a reasonable size. The damage to the economy would be horrific and the power/elite would not be able to be elected. Let's add it up:
So let's total it up.
That would bring unemployment to 31-million, which would mean 20% unemployment! The few people that would be left with jobs would lose 20% of their customers, so the economy would shrink even further, conservatively I'd guess another 5% would become unemployed.
THAT kind of scenario is a planning nightmare - 25% unemployment is real Depression-era stuff and it often leads to call for revolutionary change - and that would mean the current Powers That be would be out of a gig. And yes, at some point government would start taking from the rich to give to the (new) poor.
The bottom line is that government is in a box. Everyone who thinks about this stuff knows it. Short of providing for a professional leisure class of consumers, there's no way out of it. Too many people, too much productivity and as a result we need to waste and remain inefficient in order to continue operating in a business-as-usual way. Feel better now?
What would you rather have: A smaller part of Constitutionally guaranteed rights, Hillary or some other elite put-up as the next President (they all drink from the corporate trough anyway, right?) OR would you like 25% unemployment, unemployment cut in half, a smaller education 'business' and all your rights back?
Get back to me when you get the right answer, huh? Corpgov's bet is that the devil you know is better than one you don't - and because of that, we're in Iraq for oil, but more importantly to maintain consumption and jobs for the war industries. It takes just the right balance of tax and waste to keep this kind of economy going while ensuring a proper Petri dish for ever-growing corporate sales to consumers. Economic policy is a bitch if you really change the status quo. I expect that's what Greenspend was alluding to.
Who Owns US? Want to see who are the major foreign holders of Treasury securities? Click here and you'll see that the top five holders of our debt are (in order from the top) Japan, China, the UK, Oil exporting countries, and Brazil. --- I have a couple of gold puts for October riding today as I expect the dollar will make a strong push here - which would knock gold back a bit to fill in those October deliveries. Other than that, sitting in cash...
Ahmadinejad's Trip Trying to calm US tensions - disclaiming nuclear weapons research and yada, yada, yada... --- Meantime, back in Iran, a crackdown on alternative media is underway.
Corporate Eavesdropping Are you willing to have your calls monitored and get commercials in order to make free phone calls? Not me...but that's the glory of a free market...
U Turn on Blackwater When we last chatted, Blackwater Security was about to be kicked out of Iraq because of the killing of 11 Iraqis. Well, this morning, the private/mercenary force looks like it will be staying in country because of fears of a security vacuum should they leave. Meantime, the war goes on, as the oil deals aren't solid yet, huh?
Fall Quavers Nope, not the third big quake expected linguistically, but we're getting close to the 'zone'. Another series of moderate earthquakes, the largest of which was a 6.0, has hit in the Indonesia area over the weekend. This is not 'the last Big One' (for a while) which popped up in the www.halfpasthuman.com predictive linguistics.
The Peru earthquake was on August 15, and the 8.4 in Sumatra was on the 12th of this month. Exactly 4 weeks. So, as best I can figure, the 'window' opens around October 10 and then would reach maximum around October 17th, or so.
Sweet Tooth Got a spare $14,500 to spend on your next power-dinner dessert?
Bloomberg's Update If you leave Bloomberg on much of the day (like we do) you'll need to spend some time this morning getting used to their "new look." Not to be critical, but I was really used to the old look, and it was nice having the numbers available during commercials. I haven't watched enough to see if this will continue, but I expect not: Most advertisers would argue that they want all the real estate on that screen they can get. While I see if from their standpoint, the numbers were always at the ready with the old approach. Oh well, their change, not mine.
White and Nerdy My eldest daughter, DNA analyst by day, hip-hop music writer by night, says she's found the "perfect song that describes you Dad." "White and Nerdy" "The lyrics are YOU," she says...
Well, it's not exactly me. At least the Pascal part. I'm more a GW Basic kinda guy.
Floored Yes, it was a fine weekend. The Great Water Heater Disaster of 2007 was finally put to rest on Sunday morning. If you recall, from last week's reports, the old water heater let loose with a leak and that in turn, sogged out a large area of the MDF subfloor in the house. And that meant going under the house to replace that.
Then there was the 'feature creep'. Instead of putting in a same-sized system, I put in a fast recovery unit. Wouldn't you know it? Had to string new wires, punch up through the floor to the breaker panel, put in a pair of 30 amp breakers and run 10/2/g wire because the NEC says it's too much to run a 4,500 watt heating system on 12/2.
All of which leaves me back where I was before this adventure began - with another 500 feet of fencing to go, to finish goat pasture #1, with the goats living in temporary housing (cattle panel enclosure).
Besides getting a hot shower for a change, the other highlight of the weekend was putting up the goat shelter; necessitated by rain showers and our desire to have healthy goats. It came out really nice - but it looks suspiciously like an old-fashioned revival tent, such as you see in the South from time to time.
This last point has not been lost on the goats. I snuck out to their computer while they were in meditation class and discovered to my chagrin, that they are researching 'animal gods' on Wikipedia. My concern is that they will open up a temple to Pan and that's not going to be popular with the (slightly) more rational residents of Anderson County, Texas.
To distract the goats, I'll probably have to take the chicken's HDTV and move it down to the goat's pen, move the goat's computer up to the coop for the chickens, and put them on the second WAN, so E and I will still have the bandwidth to watch the movie Zeitgeist, the movie, one of these nights. The cats have already watched it, given it a two-paws up not to mention a five rat rating, which is as good as it gets for them.
I hope IRS will understand just how expensive it is running a totally pro-animal goat ranch/spa and a four start chicken farm/egg hotel? I'm hoping they won't have a problem with the 50" 1080P for the chickens, but I'm worried sick about whether they'll swallow the HD satellite programming the goats will no doubt want... Remind me to lock out the 700 Club – don’t want the goats getting and more ideas.
Peoplenomics: Economic Redshift There's a whole dimension of economics that's not taught to most people, first because they'd likely go to sleep during the class, but secondly because it's a very hard concept to explain - the whole notion of how international paper money exchange works. But you can short-circuit a lot of the boredom by considering economics as an analog to the well-established principle called "redshift". In interstellar space, a star moving away from us looks more red, while a star moving toward us looks more blue. That's called blueshift by the scientifically studied. This week, we'll discuss economic redshift, which as the term implies, is what happens to economic dreams of average folks when the purchasing power of their currency moves away from them. Rather quickly, at that.
More for Subscribers Subscription Information
"No More, thanks" To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent for that office - having never held that job before, you see.
Pass It On If you find the alternative contexting of major financial and global affairs presented on this site of interest, please tell your friends about it. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep. Also, if you operate a website, a link is always appreciated and I will link in return.
More for Less Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
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George Ure, The People's Economist
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