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"Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
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Special Update: Gold too 'Golden"? OK, the web bot guys told me to look for a change in the 'public attitude toward gold & silver around the 13th of the month" but I wasn't looking very hard. Then a reader sent in a link today that the US Mint has suspended the sale of some new 2007 Gold American Eagles because of the soaring price of gold! Make of it what you will...
Our question: Will they be repriced and available late this month, or is this the leading edge of a new run to gold?
Peoplenomics: War over Taiwan: You Might Not See It Coming While the majority of the headlines that came on while I was nuking my coffee this morning (3:45 minutes worth) mostly seemed to focus on OJ Simpson's alleged role in, and his reported counter claims that he was recovering personal effects from a Las Vegas hotel (other headlines use the term 'robbery') we are much more concerned with events later today which involve demonstration in support of Taiwan independence. Tomorrow, our in-depth weekly report to subscribers will update Taiwan and assess the impact of the demonstrations which are planned in a coordinated way, worldwide, by the Taiwanese. But, even if you don't subscribe, you might want to noodle that there's an escalation path that could turn out very, very badly for the whole world on this one. And, you might not see it coming. But China is not amused.
Booleans, Bread, Circuses, and Oil The predominantly Sunni al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for killing of a major tribal figure in Iraq - just one more story that makes the place a mess. --- This latest killing refocuses me on the tribal/religious aspect of the war. Folks have tried to tell me that Iran has been supporting Iraq, but is that so? Partly. The CIA world fact book reports that Iraq is 32-37% Sunni, and 60-65% Shi'a. Iran, on the other hand, is 89% Shi'a, says the Fact Book, but then I find myself asking: IF al Qaeda is largely Sunni, and Iran is largely Shi'a, don't the US and al Qaeda share a common enemy, in a sense?
If you do a little digging, you find reports that al Qaeda is profoundly Sunni because, as one article puts it in part, "the extremist Sunnis who make up al Qaeda consider all Shiites to be heretics."
So, I'm sitting here with my coffee (a few minutes after 6 AM) and wondering "If Iran is supporting the Shi'a in Iraq, and the US is fighting al Qaeda, what's the solution - or is there one?" As usual, it comes back to the gray area between simple answers:
The US is likely under pressure behind the scenes from Sunni-sympathetic Middle Eastern countries with oil and quite strangely, the CIA World Fact Book doesn't give the religious breakdown of Saudi Arabia, (the point of origin for the 9/11 hijackers). Its listing under "Saudi Arabia>Religion": simply says "Muslim 100%". Pick another country with oil that is firmly in the US/corporate camp and you find, in the case of Qatar, for example, that the specifics are again missing. We read only that Qatar, for example is 77.5% Muslim, but the breakdown is not given (at least to civvies like us) what the underlying sect distribution is.
Outside the CIA Fact Book (which lacks a key fact, here and there) we can find elsewhere that the 'vast majority of Saudis are Sunni Muslim and only about 15% are Shi'a.' So that leaves means, if I get this right, that about 85% of Saudis being Sunni.
Is the mess solvable? I find myself planning a simple Boolean truth table and I start to line up the facts:
We can now see (with stark Boolean clarity) why the US is in the region for a very long time: it's the unsolvable equation that goes something like this:
See the futility of it? The non sequitor is that D (US) is not allied with A* to counter B which is arming 3/5 C. We can't - due to the WOT -- D is trying to conflict A*, but not to the level of disturbing A, so D is preemptively conflicting B (every way we can) to keep B from overrunning C to the detriment of A without providing a de facto win to A*, which would then claim a victory and step up their activities against D (and presumably B at some level), but this is muddied by the regional 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' kind of thinking.
The reason D - the US - is forced into delicately conflicting A* is because A has gobs and oodles of oil. So, as long at A* it self, and not the underlying Sunni population of C is not injured/attacked, then US corpgov can lean on A to increase oil production quotas, to help pressure down oil prices a bit. And - thanks to a weather break, too - it seems to have worked this week.
So with that, it becomes clear to me: There is no 'makes everyone happy" solution, except to either impose a "Berlin Wall' through Iraq - Sunnis on one side and Shi'a on the other, or simply occupy the whole playing field and hope sentiments and traditional conflicts evaporate. But do walls work? Ask the Israelis and Palestinians (Or the US Border Patrol's front line agents.)
The hope-based strategy of D seems to be "offer people democracy and they will put aside their religious differences." Not, as I read it, especially when religious differences have a 500-head start on democracy. Hope-based decision-making in foreign policy seems a rather poor option, but that's what the neocons seem to do quite well. No math, just piles of assumptions to sell a viewpoint.
My conclusion is the quicker we Berlin Wall Iraq, the quicker the shooting stops. Partition or withdrawal, but with Iraq full of oil, that leaves only partition of some flavor as an option. But hey, I'm just an economic wag. Still, it would be useful, I think, if leaders would use and share the Booleans around major policies like this (if they even think that way - another issue) because when simmered and reduced, truth tables are useful analytic tools. They can put the conflicted/log jam issue into perspective.
But, that's not necessarily desirable from the corpgov standpoint, either, because meantime, the Boston Globe says "Iraq War to be defining issue in (the presidential) races."
So here's how you get controlled: CorpGov builds an unsolvable equation (above) and then gets people whipped up to choose up sides based on an emotional reaction to the unsolvable.
ruly, we lack inspiration at the top. If you find yourself getting sucked into strong opinions about the War, go back to the Boolean view and figure out how your solution/candidate solves the equation/table, huh? Game on!
Good article in the Daily Mail about the religion dimension to the war - in a sense, it's about religions and corpgov conflicting, too... --- In Pakistan, more violence is reported - don't have time to do the truth table on that, but it's a good one for you to cut your teeth on. Just write down one line per faction/country/interest group and line them up against solutions.
Bank Run - Next? A few weeks back, Peoplenomics detailed what could happen if large numbers of financial institutions all started to look shaky at the same time. Worry about preemptive intervention by the Central Banksters and Bank Holidays that would come ex ante (before the fact) seems to be one thread of thinking detailed in academic papers (2007 works) in the field.
Thought question: How many bank runs need to occur in what period of time before The Powers That Be (e.g. authorities) either impose bank holidays, or change out currencies? Stick around: Although the dollar rallied Friday, the trend line is down, and opening the repo window at the Fed just prolongs the agony and keep musical chairs going for another verse...
Quake Following Earthquake #2 (the quakes in Sumatra this week) have villagers returning home. Linguistically, the third big quake (bigger than the others in the series) is supposed to come after people have returned, but let's hope that my recall of the linguistics is off on this and that #3 is still a few days or weeks off...but wait, that's not going to be good either. Picture me throwing my hands up in frustration, sloshing coffee all over my office, and you've got the sense of frustration...
Fireball
How many of these would it take to hit the web bot's "energies from space" flare up?
Truck Wars "Congress working to deny Mexican trucks access to US roads" headlines the Murfreesboro Post. --- Immigration raid in Iowa nets 51. --- But the most interesting headline is "Mexican truckers want to suspend pilot program in US, Mexico.
Contexting I got two very interesting emails - within seconds of one another yesterday: One from a reader who said an engineer friend of his questioned my report on cryotreating, writing in part "It's interesting that company George Ure found gets $90 for "cryotreating" a wheel's worth of parts when it's such a cheap process." He then went on to say "Oh well, George also put high priced surge suppressors on his car to protect it from EMP (they won't help a bit), I guess he'll buy anything (or more likely gets kickbacks on these products). It really detracts from his articles."
Well, to set the record straight a couple of points: First: In business, the cost of liquid nitrogen is not the sole expense in doing cryotreating. There's the shop for equipment, the spendy equipment itself, the costs of labor, rent, and so forth. In manufacturing, many businesses take the cost of materials and multiply times somewhere between 2 and 4 times to cover the costs of doing business. So $90 an axle for brakes and pads seems reasonable to me...No, I have no 'deal' with anyone on cryotreating.
Second point: At one point in my life, I worked for a company which was acquired by Xantrex which makes the ZapStop alternator protector product, and having saved the alternator on my boat at least once when my kids moved the battery switch with the engine running, I have a more than casual relationship with the product. But no, I didn't get the product free: I bought them from West Marine - no kickback, spiff, bonus, or anything else. I paid full retail for the product, and having some engineering background (extra class ham ticket, general class commercial radio ticket, co-holder on four patents related to battery instrumentation technology, I made a decision that a ZapStop might help - and I put my money where my mouth is.
When I do own or buy something (corn call options, S&P puts, gold calls, silver calls, farm land, stored food and ammo) I tell you about it as a matter of course. I did receive a kilo of coffee from some folks in Ethiopia recently - most generous of them - and that was disclosed, as well.
My point in mentioning this is not to rant about the email, that would be pointless. Instead, I'd like to point out how synchronicity and change work.
Within minutes of getting the email skeptical of my report (saying it detracted) I received another email. This one was from a senior executive with a foreign automobile manufacturing startup company which is about to do a deal with a Chinese carmaker. Check this out:
Cool, huh? That's how an article that one person thinks "detracts from his articles" can at the same instance begin communications elsewhere which just might have an impact on the future.
I can't please everyone, all the time, and no doubt don't. But when Universe puts things before you, you're obligated to do the work. That's what we do around here, and by trying to harmonize with Universe, I find connections come easily, and the design pattern of it all is a marvel to behold.
Back to fencing...
Peoplenomics: History's Biggest "Ooops!"Although one faction of the "powers that be" (PTB) might seem to have pushed the USA past what was an emerging Second Depression when the 'terror' event of 9/11 occurred with such amazing convenience in late 2001, and launched the country on its "War on Terror" and "Wars for Freedom" gambit, which I characterize from an economics perspective as a modern-day equivalent to the Works Progress Administration and Civilian Conservation Corps equivalents from the 1930's, it turns out we will likely have a major world war about 10-years after the 2000 'slow crash' anyway because the WOT and OIF has not 'reset the clock for other factions in the global power structure. The outcome, as WOPR would say, is probably global thermonuclear war. Which, to my way of thinking, would qualify as a largish historical "Ooops!". This week, how we got there and where to next as we enter what could easily be a crash week.
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Cheap is Good Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Friday September 14, 2007 Update on Fed Pressures: Chinese Rate Hike I forgot to mention this morning that the Chinese have increased their central bank rates for the fifth time this year after the latest data suggest that Chinese growth is roaring and inflation is running 11% or better.
Not to sound too Sino phobic here, but you don't suppose that with the Chinese raising rates that would put some pressure on the Fed to keep the returns up on US dollar denominated Treasuries, do you?
Now, ask yourself this: What would the market do if the Fed does not lower rates on the 18th as expected? The Fed decision is due within about 10-hours of the 'ideal' turning point becoming apparent, and a failure by the Fed to act as predicted would set off a chain-reaction nightmare.
Along the same lines, you better look at Jim Sinclair's site for more ruminations on the Chinese economy and what it means should we fumble that football.
Me? Still in a couple of October gold call options, some March 08 corn call options, a few S&P put options, and some Dec silver calls. It's shaping up a a potential 'turn' date, indeed...
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - DO NOT TRY TO FOLLOW MY TRADES - YOU WILL LOSE MONEY MOST LIKELY. JUST WATCH WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND SAY THE 21ST.
Tripping Through the Release Period Linguistically, the predictive work of www.halfpasthuman.com has us in an emotional release period through the 19th of the month, at which time something will likely change to cause the world to enter into a building period of emotional tension that will last for 70 days, or so, and then we get another emotional release period going into December.
I have assumed that along in here, the stock market would be collapsing, as a large fraction of the sampled language shift goes to money/currency/economic concerns, but as Cliff warned back when "This is not stock market forecasting - it's emotional release..." And that is something we are getting plenty of.
There are lots of other aspects of this release period, including release of prisoners for Ramadan. One such release is going on in Pakistan where president "Musharraf order the release of exiled rival's party workers" who have been held. In Iraq, the US/ multi-national forces (MNF) forces and Iraqi government are releasing 50 to 80 detainees (prisoners) per day during the holy month.
Meantime, the language is 'hot' with financial headlines as expected. One out of the UK tells us in no uncertain terms that the mortgage backed obligation worries (many of which were 'marked to [computer] models to establish a mythical valuation, which has little correlation to what goes on out here in the real world) are continuing to spread outside the US borders.
And you know things are bad when state and local governments start talking about layoffs, such as the decisions pending in Massachusetts. So, Countrywide is not alone in layoffs, although they have been lining up cash nicely.
A significant example of this comes as the UK's Northern Rock has gone to the Bank of England (their version of the Fed) seeking emergency funding. The understated headline "Mortgage borrowers told not to panic" sounds a lot to me like telling people in a theater being filled with smoke to ignore that smell - and ignore the few insiders who are heading for the exits.
While earlier this week, the US dollar sank to an all-time low against the Euro, the market basket chart (above) was bouncing a bit at press time for us today.
So while we're in a release period, and while headlines around everything from finance to earthquakes hint at a level of panic, I continue to hold some far-out-of-the-money S&P put options, which I will likely let them run all the way to expiration, just in case the release period holds still more surprises for us. For now, while I can see the "releasing" going on all over the place, and the high concentration on financial affairs, the lack of a precipitous decline (so far) has been a blessing for people who are not yet - and may never be - prepared in their portfolios and lives for a serious/unexpected downturn.
All eyes now seem to be turning to the Fed meeting, which although it happens right around the 'turn date' for the emotional state change, seems to be too early in the day to have the kind of sweeping implications implied by language shift. Nor is Apple's Sept. 18 iPhone Europe launch likely to be "it" - just not a big enough deal. Sometimes, we just have to watch.
The key thing Cliff and Igor note is that what comes on the 18th/19th is not a 'tipping point' in modelspace like the one the preceded 9/11 back in the summer of 2001; it's more like a turning point if you have enough spatial sense about 3d scatter charts to sense the difference.
Markets The price of gold is down a tad again this morning, as new 25% higher) margin requirements are in place for commodity traders. And the dollar bounced a bit. --- A couple of readers argue that I'm wrong on posting the repo numbers from the Fed. "You miss the point that they are replacements for repos that expire," wrote one. Yeah? Want to be a beer on whether all repos are repaid precisely on time - I mean every one? I'm not saying they're not, but I'd put up a two beer bet if you spring for the auditors... --- Review Economics: Retail sales for August are out from the Census folks:
Auto sales were stronger than I expected... Later on this morning, in fact in about 20 minutes from our posting time, capacity and utilization numbers are due from the Fed. I'll get it updated when I can, but I've got chickens and goats to feed here at the ranch.
Storming Can you name a city on a large river in the USA which seems to be attracting way more water for the past couple of years that it needs or wants? If you guessed New Orleans, or that part of the Gulf Coast, give yourself a green star. The headline "Flooding in the wake of tropical depression Humberto" is worthy of note because it's in the vicinity of refinery row.
The 'silver lining' to these clouds is that they mean rain for areas which have been hit by a distinct lack of rainfall, namely parts of Mississippi.
Next in the weather worries will be tropical storm Ingrid which seems to me like it will head to the middle or upper the east coast, but the storm is young and the track is earlier on. If you're planning to go camping the weekend after this one, you might want to keep an eye on it.
Rubber Stamping Russia parliament confirms Putin's pick. Duh...or is that dah?
War Plans George Bush outlined what is characterized as gradual troop cuts in Iraq. As I read it, this will or has turned into the second-longest running US overseas commitment ever - second only to Korea, the way it's going. Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of giving democracy a chance worldwide, but could we focus on places a little closer to home: Like Florida and Ohio?
Rights for First Peoples The UN has done something that Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand governments were opposing: "UNGA adopts landmark resolution on rights of indigenous people" The reason for the opposition is simple: The opposing countries have large numbers of indigenous people who have (to put it nicely) been 'ripped off.'
What I find surprising is that Mexico wasn't on the bandwagon opposing along with most of Central and South America, because the Spanish from the conquistadors days also stripped indigenous people's of their lands, wealth, and culture, too. Or is that just a function of the lack of visibility that Mexico's first people have?
"I want One of Those" - Part Two In yesterday's report, I told you how the people in Great Britain were about to have first 'dibs' on the new Toyota mini car. While Elaine and I haven't decided on what car we will actually end up with, I did get briefed up yesterday on a whole new part of the automotive industry which (I'm ashamed to admit) I was totally in the dark about.
The briefing happened when I was talking to one of my consulting client's customers - CyroScience Technologies Wolf Creek Racing Division. Offering the details of what the company does was owner Todd Walrich, who explained that when metal (and other) car parts are chilled to 300 below zero in a controlled environment, some permanent changes to the molecular alignment of the materials takes place. The 'grain' of materials (and even metal has a grain to it) becomes aligned.
So, how does that relate to my car shopping? Walrich explained that while his firm doesn't do the US Post Office vehicles, but most of them have their brakes cryo-treated. "What happens is the rotors and pads usually last from twice to three times longer than untreated parts," he explained. "We do the brakes and pads for about $90 an axle."
The brakes get silky smooth and more predictable, besides lasting the life of the vehicle - if you can even get 150,000 miles out of it. A testimonial on his site claims 3=times the brake life under harsh SCCA racing conditions.
Now, being as I'm not a really aggressive drive (off track) and I can squeak 60,000 miles between rotor and pads, cryo-treating the next car's brakes pads and rotors makes all kinds of sense. You know what the next question was, right? "So, if you can get racing engines to have extended lives too (double and triple there, too) how comes Detroit and Tokyo aren't doing this for us and letting us buy cars that will last 300,000 miles and up?"
"What's their incentive to do that?"
Hmmm...good point. I guess I'll file the 300,000 miles gas engine at the back of the filing cabinet along with the 100+ MPG carburetors and engine mods that seem to exist, yet mysteriously, they never showed up in the dealerships. Back in the 1970's the carbs were suppressed and now you need a high tech machine shop and computer programming to access fuel injection tweaks, a whole auto subculture there in performance turning. And I read conspiracy boards about dead inventors. This, however, is genuinely cool technology. (You're awake enough to get the cryogenics pun, right?) --- I figure that the longer I put off buying a car, the better they will be (not to mention the better the value I will be buying...)
I assume you already know about Bruce Crower's six-cycle engine? In a nutshell, what he does is takes a four-cycle engine, and adds a water injection and steam exhaust stroke to it. Crower's design has the potential (and development work is continuing) to increase engine efficiency by 30-40% - and in the process, get rid of water pumps, radiators, and nuisances like that. Image a car with no radiator and no coolant hoses to mess with! Oh, and killer mileage and lower pollution. --- Now marry the two technologies: cryotreating and six-cycles. If you hear of an auto maker that can put the pieces together, I wouldn't mind paying a few more bucks for something with longer life (and less impact on the planet). Barring that, I figure I'll be sending Walrich rotors and pads to treat when we get a new car one of these days...one of the few breaks (or is that brakes?) for car owners. --- Oh, cryotreating of competition gun barrels is done, too. Not only do the guns shoot straighter (as barrel heat) but they also seem easier to clean as the process hardens and increases wear resistance. --- As if that was enough capabilities for the new technology, there's one more. Walrich will cryotreat golf balls for a buck apiece. Because cryotreating relieves internal stresses in material, cold balls seem to 'fly' better - adding between 8 and 15 yards on long drives. You know the obvious question here, I suppose: "Wouldn't that make a cryotreated ball illegal for tournament play?
"Who could tell?"
The cellophane on the box is problematic, but the cardboard survives the process. Hmmm...
Thursday September 13, 2007 Update: Open Window, Throw Money A few readers are wondering "Gee, George, why is the market rallying?"
Can you repeat after me, please, "Open Discount Window, Throw money"?
Hmmm...$21 billion in 1, 7 and 14-day dough....oughta be good for a few rally points, eh?
Three Blind Sheep Forget about them 'three blind mice' - it's not the mice who are being blinded - it's the sheep. Some major footwork is going on which should roust even the most somnambulistic of sheep to at least semi-consciousness. Like kids playing, who are trying to put the square pieces of the puzzle in round holes, or the star-shapes into the pentagon shapes, most working people just don't have the time to try fitting pieces this way and that. They're too busy working - trying to either hold on to their jobs, or worse, trying to hold on to their homes. And most of the press in LameStreamMedia doesn't have the brains or balls to ask follow-up questions when the answers get slippery...
I'd reckon one of the worrisome pieces I'm test-fitting at the moment is that Air Force Air Combat Bases will be standing down on Friday. What's worrisome about this is that it comes at a time when we have a fresh warning from al Qaeda that the US will be hit again. Somehow, the remarkable timing: standing down of the Air Force and the heightened increase of terrorism, just hasn't registered with most people as a non sequitur. To me, it sounds just plain/plane dumb.
"OK, George, what would you suggest, then?" you're thinking. Gee, that is simple: Units going through the intensive training over three days, or a week, so that there would continue to be 'overlapping coverage' of key areas would be the first thing that comes to my mind. But a stand down of all US Air Force combat units globally? WFT? Is there a warhead missing, or what? The 'net speculation runs rampant about a coming false flag...
The second part of the test-fitting has to do with the change of government in Russia. As you know, Vlad Putin dismissed his old government yesterday, but it is the remark of outgoing Mikhail Fradkov (ex-prime minister now) that can be taken several ways. He said the "resignation of the government was necessary because of 'approaching significant political events." So what 'significant political events' is Fradkov referring to - events in Russia or events in the USA? How soon is 'approaching'?
The fact that Viktor Zubkov, the head of Russia's Federal Financial Monitoring Service is even more interesting, because as I pointed out in yesterday's report, a collapse of the US dollar (stick around a few weeks) would put Russia and its currency in line of succession to become the world's reserve currency.
But the third, and most worrisome item, is that the in the commodity world, it seems that gold has been heating up in advance of pending events - not necessarily a 'good' things, but definitely a 'tradable' thing - so the NYMEX has just increased margin requirements by 25% for clearing and non-clearing members and from $2,700 to $3,375 for customers. So if you see gold drop a bit today, I'd expect it to consist of margin heavy players lightening up a bit.
Why would margins be tightened when, as one headline this morning puts it, "Gold bull run set to continue" and the 'yellow dog' is up 11% in about a month? Unless, of course, there's something else percolating in background...and worries that gold will climb fast and hard.
The question is: what is ahead the night of the 18th/morning of the 19th (UTC) that linguistically spins USA emotions from release to building for 70-some days? We ought to know by the 20th, or so.
Abe Hospitalized The sudden resignation of Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has the press calling for snap elections. More interesting: Abe is hanging out in a hospital says one report, suffering from stress/exhaustion. Let me see: Russia and Japan: government roulette?
Humberto Although it's only a category 1 hurricane, Humberto coming ashore about 200 miles south of us is likely to cause all kinds of problems from heavy rainfall. And with flooding as one of our current terra memes in modelspace, what kind of problems would you expect? Flooding, naturally. --- But that meme is not isolated to Texas and Loosiana. Folks in Minnesota had a special legislative session to work on flood relief this week.
We're tracking 3-million homeless and displaced by floods in India.
And, Nigeria faces additional flooding. Wonder if this will impact oil & gas operations there, too?
We're thankful that nothing is showing up on the local radar, but Humberto seems to be going 'walk about' so it's possible that after smacking Tejas and Louisiana, that the storm could head back out to sea, and then come back again...
Quakes and Quavers The conversation with chief time monk Cliff (www.halfpasthuman.com) was the usual sobering stuff (which as a courtesy, I won't burden you with, because when we look out the timelines to late 2008 early 2009, the general human condition is quite dire - for those still around, sorry to say) but one thing is clear in the linguistics: The quake in Indonesia yesterday was likely Number 2 of the Three Great Quakes expected - which I've been telling you about.
A few readers have asked "Since this was actually two great quakes, could this be the end of the sequence?" Sadly, no. The third quake is more separated from the first two (Peru last month, Indonesia this month) and in any event, the two great quakes in Indonesia yesterday were all part of the same event, even though the epicenters were a ways apart.
It's the Pacific plate moving and, for the really aware, we haven't had movement around the western edge of the plate (California through Alaska, like we have on the south east (Peru), south (Indonesia) and West (Japan) edges.
This is not to say that the next great quake will be in the Cabo San Lucas to Anchorage area, but as I've told my kids in Seattle, it's something to think about, and [plan to guard against. Walking shoes, outdoor gear, good knife, fire starting equipment, water bottles, rice, vitamins, SAS Survival Handbook, are low cost hedges all. No excuses.
Now, as relief efforts gear up, we have to wonder when #3 will show up: The 19th? Mid October? Maybe in November? Hmmm...more coffee.
Great Book Yet another one to go on my reading list: I saw former Nixon White House Counsel John Dean interview by Mike Schneider on Bloomberg's "Night Talk" last night. Great interview about the book: "Broken Government: How Republican rule destroyed the Legislative, Executive, and Judicial Branches."
A couple of things Dean said really made sense: He expressed that he has no idea who the people in power are right now because they are not the kind of Republicans that he once was. They are all about power and authority of power. Dean's now and independent.
Second point was that he thinks (as an independent) that Rudy Giuliani would be the most prone of the presidential wannabes to consolidate even more federal power while he thought Fred Thompson would be the best at containing government expansion. Got to read the book.
Podcasting Survey Here's an interesting result - somewhat unexpected: The majority of people responding to my "what do you think about Urban or Peoplenomics adding a podcast?" question would just as soon keep the sites in written form. "I can read a lot faster than you can talk" offers one reader.
I wouldn't bet on that - because I know how to do audio time compression. The way it works is really simple: You simply sample a normal analog voice into digital slices - then you remove every n'th slice and play back the result. What this means is that I can apply time-compression to audio (as can anyone with a good sound recording package like Magix Studio) and bump up the speed of speech to over 500 words per minute.
The reason you don't hear interviews that way is that time compression requires a lot of attention - and it is very tiring to listen to...but you hear it applied once in a while - a few auto dealership commercials on radio use time compression for the 'fine print' disclaimer stuff - so if you hear one of those zing by, no, it's not a person on six double latte's - it's time compression at work.
I'll keep it in print for now - and yes, I will try to do the proof reading before posting - as time permits. FrontPage 2003 doesn't have a grammar checker, though. I'm sure if it did, it would resign faster than the Russian cabinet.
Toyota has put a new micro-car into their marketing mix. Not selling in the USA yet, but hits dealerships in the UK shortly. They apparently have noticed the number of people signing up for SmartCars. --- I've always liked the idea of owning one of the micro cars. Some comments about a friend who owned a 'Mini' back in the 70's was mentioned in a 2002 Urban report - scroll down to "Car Buying Discovery #2"
We've got the trend here, I think. With oil bumping up against $80, high mileage go karts make a lot more sense that multi-ton behemoths.
My little sister (who rumor has may be retiring from Boeing in 2008) is still tickled pink with her decision to buy a Prius hybrid. Great mileage, and I think going forward if the world situation ever put us in gas rationing, I'd want a car that could get me 50 MPG rather than one that turns in Hummer-like mileage, although in fairness, I understand they have improved a bit since the 9.5 MPG reported in 2003 for an H2.
En Garde! In French, of course, that means "on guard" and is the warning offered by the instigator of a fencing match...or is it the defender? Well, whatever. My point has to do with fencing, but not that kind - the kind that keeps goats in.
E and I found a hell of a deal on registered Boer goats to start our goat operation - we picked up three animals, two pregnant does and a double registered (American and International) buck for $100 each from a fellow who is moving to Kentucky, which is where he thought the last of the real estate bargains in the country were.
The neighbors across the road picked up the other two does and buck (again, all registered) and ours are being boarded for a few days while we finish up fencing.
One of the reasons I didn't get around to fixing yesterday's typo's was that I have been running flat out around the ranch. Now that the weather has moderated a bit (even though it's still humid as hell) I have gotten a new chicken coop built, and yesterday we put up another 200 feet of goat fence.
I can put up about 150 feet of fence in an hour or two, with top and bottom clips and properly stretched. The problem (from a time management perspective) is the installation of the clips. Because it's goat fence, I need to put at least five clips on each post - and that takes some time. The neighbor's daughter came up with a wire twister, so putting the clips on it not a terrible nuisance - just time consuming.
Now, with thousands of feet yet to be put up (our perimeter is about 6,000 feet) I at least have a way to partially mechanize the job - and that's a good thing. I'd rather cook up a short-cut, and weld it up, than roll out fencing by hand any day. Now that my prototype is done, I've got plans for an improved version which I will cobble up shortly...
Wednesday September 12, 2007 Government Changes in Russia Although I have been looking for a headline which would be a 'prequel' of things to come later in the month, my friends the time monks with their predictive linguistics tell me that many times big changes can happen in the shadows and then emerge into public consciousness days, or even weeks later. A recent example was that errant B-52 flight, which happened 3-4 days ahead of hitting mainstream. Or, how long passed between the arrest of Senator Larry Craig and the subsequent unveiling of the charges? But you see their point: Things can happen in the now that don't appear until 'then.'
This morning's worrisome headline is the resignation of the Russian government's cabinet ahead of what is referred to by outgoing prime minister Mikhail Fradkov as "approaching significant political events." While Fradkov wants to give Putin full freedom over staff decision (and Putin faces an election in six months and is picking a successor), I'm concerned that there may be a lot more to this story than meets the eye.
For one thing, Russia has been holding military maneuvers with China recently, and it's well publicized that Russia has been supplying a lot of the core technology and technical expertise to the Iranians at their Busher nuclear plant.
While we don't have a fully formed opinion on this yet, we can see that Fradkov may have been less than a perfect "Yes Man" for Putin. For one thing, Fradkov has argued in favor of a lighter tax burden on the working class. But things like tax cuts are not the stuff of a large remilitarization program, such as the resumption of bomber flights, and the upgrade of the Topol M ICBM's, indicate.
While the West seems to believe that Russia is a significant energy player, and don't get me wrong, they are, there have been reports suggesting that Russia may have been over-estimating reserves -- something that lots of Middle East players do, just as a matter of course. What would seemingly support this notion however, is that Russia and Vietnam are setting up to conduct some joint venture oil and gas discovery work.
While it's not a 'done deal' by any stretch, the likely appointment of First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov may mean that Putin has hand-picked him as successor.
The New Cold War I've told you for a while that it seems there is a collision course being set up here of grand scale: The US, holds its hollowed out dollar, down to less than 1/20th of its 1913 original purchasing power when the Federal Reserve (which is neither) took over the money reins of the USA. Russia, on the other hand, has not been out peddling 'liar's paper' - the CDO and in some cases it's been argued - over-rated paper debt instruments. Instead, they have paid down their national debt, invested in infrastructure, and seem to be doing a dandy job of flanking the US in foreign relations rather well. One up capitalists.
Part of the reason that they've been able to do is this that the US has been bogged down in either two, or three, or total war, depending on how you would assess Iraq, Afghanistan, the global War on Terror - or is it simply World War IV against whoever has resources?
Now factor into this stew the headline that "Russia reveals new superbomb" and a person prone to worry might be reaching for the Tums.
Curiously (or is it?) the superbomb story is getting big play where? In Iran's Press-TV.
The development of a "vacuum bomb" is certainly a major break-through for the Russians in military technology - and one that "shocks" a lot of experts and politicians, who also are worried that it marks the start of a new arms race/cold war. A conventional device with the same kind of overpressure developed by nuclear devices previously.
In comparison with the US MOAB (mother of all bombs), the technology is apparently similar, in that they are fuel air bombs (a small charge disperses the fuel, which is then detonated by a second charge resulting in a massive blast). It could be that Russia has equaled, or bettered, the US in the 'right' fuel mixture of ingredients to get maximum 'ooomph."
Whether the New [Cold for now] War is underway depends how you construct the linkage between events. The least worrisome is that all of this is no more than swarf, to use a serious metalworker's term. (Insignificant debris or waste from machining). OR, one could say yes, Russia (along with their pals, the Chinese) may be rolling up resources and allies for future use as the US dollar seems to be in another headlong decline this morning (chart above).
Ultimately, depending on how far the dollar falls, the Russians and their partially gold-convertible currency (featuring the chevronet - a gold coin) plan has been doing just fine, with the Russians now holding $416 billion in reserves. Again, this comes at a time that we're hemorrhaging red ink because of military spending.
Is it possible that the pending US dollar 'near death experience' will topple the US as the world's 'reserve banker'? There goes the US debt scam, for sure.
Banker Speak Meantime, we have Fed Boss Ben Bernanke says that a global "savings glut" has helped lower rates paid for borrowing. But wait! Didn't we just report a month or two back that, at least here in the USA, the national savings rates was 'revised' by a change in statistical measures so that it appeared people were are to save money when the truth of the matter is home foreclosures are making a moon shot? And, making it worse, prior to the "revisions" the savings rate was a year in the negative column? Oh, but you're not expected to have a good memory on this stuff.
What we have is "change the stats then pretend they're real!"
Meanwhile, the foreclosure headlines keep loading up the peg. One report says 11 states have more than doubled foreclosures since last year. Think the housing collapse is done? Think again! California foreclosures are up nearly 5-times year ago levels and in Aridzona, the rate is up 217%.
Press on the Press's Presses I just mentioned the 'news pegs.' In old news rooms, there were different 'pegs' on the wall, so editors could pull the local news, police beat stories, national, international, and so forth. Shucks, I'm so old that I remember working the police & fire beat with with reporters who worked for the original Seattle Star. That's old. There's a silver lining" Watching a hot metal Linotype machine was ever so much neater than watching an editor drag stories around a page layout screen...
The internet has changed all that, of course, and partly due to increased competition for eyes, newspapers are off on all kinds of cost cutting actions. For example, the Visalia Times-Delta and the Tulare Advance-Register, have changed to a narrower 44-inch format as a cut cutting move by parent Gannett. OK, going from 46 to 44 inches may not seem like a big deal to you, but it saves about 5% when you're buying newsprint by the ton, and the ink to cover it. A good move by Gannett, I think.
Selling of the War George Bush is expected to endorse the withdrawal of about 30,000 US troops, but not until July 2008 - almost a year from now. Nancy Pelosi, for one, is not sold on it. She says (in part) that
What was it Orwell said about perpetual war?
Syria Bombed Yes, Israeli warplanes did attack Syria last week - apparently a test of Syrian air defenses, since Israel (with about 260 nukes last I heard) doesn't want to folks next door joining that club.
Booming Mexico, Sort of... There's an air of mystery following that explosion of a truck in Mexico yesterday which left 28 dead and a 42-foot scross crater in the highway. Conspiracy-minded discussions on the net speculate the truck was headed for the US, now that the borders are open to Mexican truckers. Doubtful any truth to it, but gets folks whipped up about Mexico, anyway. --- Still countrywide Mexico trucking may not be here to stay, at least if we really have a Congress: The Senate has joined the House and voted to cut off funding for the 'demonstration project' but The Decider has already decided. George Bush is indicating he will veto the bill. Not exactly listening to the will of the people as I see it, but hey, I'm not a product of corporate campaign contributions, either.
The real test is whether CONgress has the balls to override The Decider. You think? Ha! CONgress, too, is the product of corporate campaign contributions, so the charade goes on. --- One other story worthy of a ponder involving Mexico: What's up with that guerilla group bombing oil and natural gas pipelines? Ostensibly, the guerillas want rebels held by the government, set free. Outcome: The explosions shut down about 3/4th of Volkswagen's operations in Puebla, says the report. So is it 'rebels' or NWO/corporatist backlash? Some would think it could be either...
Is it Quake #2? We've been watching for a second big earthquake to follow that August 15th quake in southern coastal Peru.
This morning, we have a possible candidate: an initially reported 7.9 shaker in Sumatra, which has since been raised to an 8.2, Indonesia. 8.2 is big. And at 28 days after Peru's quake, this means our next quake ought to come in somewhere between 29 and 42 days from now. At least, that's what the linguistics suggest...three big quakes with the third, a bit longer between than #1 (Peru) and #2 (was it Sumatra today?). This was big enough to generate a tsunami warning, but no word of injuries or damage - too early on.
The problem is #3 is expected to be bigger and have serious impacts on us. Drop by in 45 days and we'll see. Our office pool is that it will be an 8.6 due about then. So guide the time monks.
Trading Notes It's a non-event as I see it: The announcement by OPEC that they were bumping up production quotas a bit. I doubt anything will change as I expect most operations are running flat out already, anyway.
In Corn THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVISE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANYTHING! THIS IS A TRADE IN MY PERSONAL ACCOUNT AND I'M A WILD-EYED OPTION TRADER. Whew! That said, like I told Peoplenomics subscribers in advance, I was looking to buy some corn commodity calls - which I have now done. Two options worth. I believe that with the sinking of the purchasing power of the dollar that physical assets (like grains) might go up. But it's just a wild guess - DO NOT TRADE ON THIS. --- I am just an honest and open human, taking every possible step to ensure that you are fully informed of how I trade. News without action is a waste of time. Frankly, I'm sick to death of the talking heads on TV telling me they are recommending this stock or that. I don't care what they are recommending, I want to know what they have lined their personal accounts with.
I'm one journalist-turned-amateur economist (they all are), who is willing to put it all out there: What about these other guys? I report what I am thinking about doing (I told folks in advance that I was planning to buy gold call options) and then I told people in advance that I was planning to sell them (which I have mostly done now).
If these talking heads are really so good, let's see them publish their moves and put them out there for public scrutiny. I have lost my butt this year in stock options, but I'm doing OK on commodities, but that's largely, I think, due to Fed intervention.
I have to wonder if I'm the only one willing to tell you in advance what I'm going to do and then actually do it?
Regardless, just so I can't be accused of hyping anything, I only invest in the huge markets - index options and commodities - where whatever I do will have no impact on prices. I'm a journalist/writer/education oriented guy who's putting it down on paper. No pink sheet touts from me, no sir.
So how good are the experts on TV? And, if they're not good, why are they there?
Tuesday September 11, 2007 Balance of Trade The latest work on US imports and export is right in line with expectations but the June deficit was revised upward - a bad things for markets:
Although the figure is not as bad as it could have been, the balance of trade deficit is significant. Let me grab my pencil and do a little doodling for you:
People overseas are bound to figure out at some point that they can't eat paper and when that happens, the borrowed wealth of others will have to be paid back in some fashion, I expect. That's why I tell my friends (the few I have) that the simplest survival strategy that seems to work over the longer run of history is the "Four G's: Grains, Gold, Ground, and a Gun." And speaking of guns...
Wars and Money So here we are, six years on from the Twin Towers with the memorial events and so forth, but do most Americans - or even most humans, for that matter - really step back and look at the design pattern which emerges from a study of war? Likely not. There's a certain drama/emotional release that comes with disclosure of another Osama bin Laden tape, and continuing talk of bombing Iran, despite some movement toward a settlement acceptable to the International Atomic Energy Agency. While the UN Secretary General says Iran must meet all UN demands, the IAEA's boss, Mohamed El Baradei says maybe a time out on sanctions would help chill some of the building emotions around the talk of an attack. --- War is something to be studied thoughtfully, and one of the best at the "Big Picture" is Gwynne Dyer, who generously shares his well-studied views of things on his web site, which is worth at least a weekly scan for a sense of context largely missing in LameStreamMedia. His book "War: The Lethal Custom" is a thorough update of his 1985 TV documentary and companion book "War" and the Amazon reviews give it five stars - so it's on my reading list and I'd recommend it to you, too. Dyer's book about where the war in Iraq would lead, is hinted at in his book title analyzing that war: "The Mess They Made: The Middle East After Iraq." --- Most wars, it seems, have at their core some aspect of either power or property - or both. While the Iraq war was "sold" to us in the days following 9/11 as a strike back at terrorism, the fact that the 9/11 hijackers were largely Saudi, not Iraqi, is now mostly forgotten. We already had a lock on Saudi oil and government. Instead, we went after the closest convenient despot with the most oil. It made sense (and still does in a corporate/lifestyle preservation way) because that country has so much in the way of oil reserves.
The headlines today that "Hunt Oil signs contract to explore for oil in Iraq" is barely mentioned in LameStream - the focus is on the memorials. Release those emotions for the umpteenth time to keep people feeling a pain long passed. Like the recent Princess Di memorials, it seems more about ratings or mass psychology than about news - as in 'new'. Conveniently, Osama bin Laden's new video comes out today.
To put a little finer point on it, when I read over at 'Forbes that "Iraqi oil minister hints he is not in favor of OPEC quota hike" I read it as the word from the oil industry about how things should go.
There's a serious contradiction there, if you care to hear it, when you-know-who refers to the "democratic government we put in place" in Iraq. How's that again? There's a cognitive dissonance to "democratic government" and "put in place." If you think about it, but odds are you won't.
Remember, it's a crime in Iraq here too probably, for people to hold out seed for next year's crops - if they came from corporate seeds -- such is the imposition of Western style capitalism on the people who used to live less under the corporate thumb and under Saddam Hussein's instead. One might inconveniently mention that the number of Iraqi's dying today is arguably more than Hussein was offing with his torture and terror programs, but objectively comparing kill rates (and between 71,510-78,081 Iraqi civilians are dead so far) is not what 'war' is all about, especially when we've 'put in place' a somewhat oil-friendly government. --- When you get deeply into the study of modern warfare, you are likely to discover that there are multiple factions playing at global conquest - it's not just the corporations trying to lock up resources, although there's a good chunk of that, true enough.
Another big faction to keep an eye on is the global narcotics industry, with untold billions in narco-dollars. A great starting point read to to learn the field is Catherine Austin Fitt's "Narco-Dollars for Beginners: How the Money Works in the Illicit Drug Trade."
Once you have that down, you will see that there is plenty of narcomoney sloshing about to wage wars successfully against major governments. Earlier this year, for example "Mexican Drug Cartels are Taking On the Military."
I've asked this embarrassing question before: If we can spray Paraquat on marijuana fields (growing the plant threatens the alcohol empires) how is it that the opium poppy harvest can be up 18% in Afghanistan this year with so much US presence in the area? What are those song lyrics again? Oh yeah: "This ain't about democracy, it's about war..." --- When I read today's headlines that the "World's most wanted drug-trafficker captured in Columbia dressed in underwear, T-shirt" I find myself wondering: "Was this a planned way for the cartel to distance itself from one of their own who had gotten out of hand/over the top, or is this a real strike at the heart of narcomoney which will result in blowback?" An email from a reader goes along the same line of thinking:
By way of explanation on the web bots - the technology simply picks up in advance what is likely to appear in media - so if there are 'hidden from view' factions (which of course there are) these would not show up in the linguistics unless they hit mainstream. With the exception of arrests like today's, the footwork of the factions behind the scenes is usually subtle and those who know don't speak. More than once, anyway. We ain't exactly naive...
The Finance War The big financial story is about a war of a different stripe - the battle over the US dollar. This morning, the dollar is well below 80 on the market basket with suggestions that a quick drop to 65 is coming (see chart top right again). As US paper falls, the price of gold should continue to rise, and as gold rises, there may be opportunity to catch a last train out on silver, which seems to be lagging gold. Commodities in general might pop so I'm the proud owner of some March 08 corn call options.
As I've explained along the way to our near death experience for the Dollar, a decline in the US rates would put downward pressure on the dollar because so-called hot money can find better returns elsewhere.
Here's a conveniently little table I worked up for myself showing how I expect oil prices to go based on how far the dollar falls - and how it could impact other investment like commodities...
No doubt there would be some acceleration of things like gas and oil prices, but you get the idea.
How Did I Miss This? So, here's one of those stories that I should have caught in June when it broke, but it slipped under the radar, until this morning at 4:45 AM I was doing some reading and research. It is still worth mentioning: The US has 20 to 30 unpublished satellites in low earth orbit that are not in published catalogs, claim the French. They, and we, are wondering "What's up with that?" Or a simple WTF?
The immediate reaction might be "Care to guess who they are spying on?"
But let's expand our thinking a bit: These could be the unpublished/secret platforms that might be used to present the world with a projected laser holography "event" of a "Second Coming Miracle" worldwide. Say what? Go read up on Project Blue Beam. Been talked about since 1995/1996 or so.
The problem with most Project Blue Beam accounts is they rely of some kind of hidden science. But wait! What are the odds that at the root of the 'conspiracy theories" and "new age" disinformation, there might be some grains of truth?
Think about this: Give me a hidden team of engineers, an unpublished/secret constellation of satellites on which I could mount anything I wanted, and yeah, I could have some fun with that - especially if the black budget was big enough. A sort of global IMAX. Be a wonderful control mechanism, huh? Project alien spacecraft, religious figures, oh the fun you could have with such a platform. Mega-lumen lasers on chemtrail screens anyone?
Or...to put a Doctor Strangelove spin on it: How about this new constellation as the US Doomsday platform? A sort of cobalt-thorium G bomb upstairs? Like the girl in the internet via satellite commercial says "How cool is that?"
Oh sure, the dollar is cratering this morning, and war abounds, but while the rest of the world is going through highly orchestrated emotional release looking backwards six years, the French have disclosed "something's up." The "memorials" are part of a release period and I suppose better expressed with renewed mourning than a release in the stock market with a crash. --- One other thing in our "What's up" department: this is partial solar eclipse day, too.
That Dog Do Hunt No only that, but she climbs trees to boot... (you'll have to endure a commercial before the video...)
Podcasting Question I have received an interesting suggestion from a Maui reader that I get into podcasting. No worries with the equipment: Got a killer sound card, Magix 24-track recording software, an Alesis mixer, and enough condenser mics to do a small band set. So the question is this: Would subscribers to Peoplenomics be interested in occasional podcasts - .MP3 audio updates? How long would you like them? Should the weekly report be recorded? Would it increase revenues/subscribers? It is more work, but I already have the equipment for voiceover work... Click here to send comments.
Monday September 20, 2007 Dollar NDE Looms Are you awake enough to sort out what an NDE is? If not, I'll tell you I first heard the term when I was doing an interview with Dr. Raymond Moody back in my radio news days, when Moody was doing a 'talk show circuit tour' promoting his then-new book "Life After Life." I found the whole field incredibly interesting because he had collected interviews with hundreds of people who reported a very similar experience when going through death, and then being resuscitated. Lots of interviews and if you haven't read in the field, the research is totally interesting because we ALL get to go through that door someday. --- In the intervening years, there has been a fair amount of debate about how objectively "real" the NDE is. Some research goes to the idea that as the brain begins to shut down permanently, certain hallucinogenic chemicals are released and this offered as the "source" of the 'religious' experience.
But, the other side of it is that hospital staffs have, in many emergency rooms, put large numbers on the tops of cabinets where they could only be read from above, and lots of people who experience a near death experience come back able to 'recall seeing' the numbers when they report that as part of the experience, they seem to float above and out of their bodies.
It appears the NDE is like a conventional (if I can use that word here) out of body experience (see OBE), that evolves into a trip through some tunnel toward a very peaceful warm blue/white light source, and in addition to a rushing noise/hum of some description, along come encounters with passed loved ones and what have you, including messages from 'beyond'.
Regardless of your religious/spiritual inclinations, the whole field is interesting because with modern life-saving techniques 'bringing back' more and more people, the body of knowledge has really grown since Moody's first book came out in 1975. Just on the off chance the phenomena is universal, it's worth reading about how the first part of 'what comes next' reads like a spiritual water slide at the beginning... (Any readers who have been through an NDE personally are of course welcome to comment). --- So, what does this have to do with the U.S. Dollar? Ah.
Linguistically, this fall, the US dollar is either gong through an NDE or a plain flat-out death via global repudiation. In fact, we're seeing the leading edge of that right now. Headlines like "Treasury Gain my Falter; Foreign Holders Fee Dollar" are based on what I've told you for several months leading into this period: Specifically, that Ben Bernanke and the paper money printers have been herded by events into an ugly box canyon.
The conundrum facing the Fed in eight days time is this: If they lower the discount rate, they will in effect be paying foreign holders of U.S. debt instruments less than they are today. So, as a consequence, more will likely flee. On the other hand, the prospect of the Fed leaving rates where they are just scares the hell out of Wall Street, and I expect a good chunk of this week's decline (stick around, it'll show up, I'm afraid) will be based on an evolving fear that the Fed will hold.
In a true nightmare scenario, the Fed might conceivably even be pressed to raise because of foreign investors fleeing the dollar. The key thing to ponder is how low can the dollar go and what are the implications for us regular humans. If you look at the US dollar index chart (top right of this page) you'll see that we're now under 80 on the market basket and as of the last time I looked, one US dollar was buying only 0.7249 Euro. Or going the other way, $1.38 to buy a Euro roughly.
There's been some suggestion on discussion boards that on the market basket (just under 80) the dollar could slide to as low as 65. This all sounds pretty theoretical until you pencil it out to 23% inflation on everything imported into the USA. How does $92 oil sound, for example?
Now ask yourself this: If purchasing power (oif imported items) were to drop precipitously, why would it stop at 65? Technical analysis? Sorry, that one don't hunt. The value of the dollar is going to be set by what we offer in exchange for it. Junk paper/liar's paper is beginning to be seriously discounted, and as I've said for a long time, the only real growth industry in America for the past several years (since 2000 when DotComs blew up) has been financial instruments. That's not a sound "national industry." Countries need something a little more tangible than debt. Paper with declining assets seems destine to become less fungible/interchangeable with food, machine equipment, and electronics.
So back to the question: Why would that stop permanently at 80? 65? Or, is the bottom of that slide somewhere you don't want to imagine? Sorry to set Monday off on such a serious note. ---
Last week when the jobs report came out, and it was revealed that the economy had actually lost 4,000 jobs for the reporting month, it sparked fear on the Street. A once bond player on the Street sent in an email with this sobering reminder:
So when the Fed looks at employment numbers, what will they really see? Do they keep track of things like waiting weeks which can delay the statistical arrival of bad news? Do they know how many of us are 'independent contractors'?
Overseas, the view is our jobs picture is bad and getting worse: 31,000 financial layoffs in August and another 15,000 (or more) to come shortly. And that's before counting all the independent contractors who will hit the streets without unemployment bennies.
Despite what people in the real estate business may be saying (sort of like whistling while walking past a cemetery) the folks who make business decisions on industry indicators, see the housing collapse as continuing. A headline like "Home Depot doesn't see housing improvement until 2008" should tell the Fed something.
A Peoplenomics subscriber called me on Saturday and said: "I am selling my house I hafe an offer for 93.3% of my asking price -- should I take it?" I skated on a direct answer because I don't offer financial advise, but I did discuss trends and ask the question "What would cause the trend to turn on a dime?" --- Linguistically, today or tomorrow we may get a little prequel of whatever is going to spin the country on the 18th (evening) 19th (morning) of this month. A (possibly false-flag) terror event today or tomorrow would just about ensure war with Iran by the 19th. With US Naval forces in the Persian Gulf and a sizeable tactical problem with Iran's army next door to our forces in Iraq.
This weekend, I don't know if you noticed, but Israel and Syria are both mobilizing reserves, and the data collection project has heard rumbles about a low key call up in Egypt, but not confirmed yet.
--- Several readers have written in worried about that B-52 incident from last week which was mostly buried in mainstream. The emails went to the idea that if there were a 'terrorist' attack now, and it were to involve a radiological device of any kind, there would be a lot of people suspicious of linkage between the B-52 case and the appearance of WMD's in 'terrorist' hands in the US heartland within days of one another. --- With the report to Congress on the war shortly, a New York Times piece today "Americans feel military isd best at ending the war" is a worthy read.
General David Petraeus will reportedly ask that any decision on troop cuts be delayed, and when you couple the plans for that new base near the Iran border, and the democorps waffling, it looks like this war will go into the history books as one of the longest (the longest?) in American history.
As any business school grad will tell you: A decision delayed is a decision made." Corporate interests will get their expanded war. And I'll be nervously watching the headlines for the next 48-hours and hope the linguistics are wrong.
Meantime, the Iraqi prime minister says civil war has been averted in Iraq. I don't know what he'd call the ongoing fighting, then... --- The best possible outcome in here is that the linguistics are wrong and that what comes through as 'dollar death' will only be a 'near death' experience. The best case would be that we don't get into a wider war with Iran because that could lead to puddles of green glass in many places throughout the Middle East. The best case would be that the Fed bites the bullet, holds rates, which while it would cause a deep recession in the USA, it would at least ensure some level of holding of dollars and might reduce the American public's insatiable (so far) lust for any consumer gadget that comes along.
I don't think I need to go into the worst case outcomes - it would involve attacks on America, massive naval losses, glass puddles, and all manner of undesirable outcomes. Among the worst is that the 72-day emotional building period starting September 19th would be as the world watches to figure out where fallout levels would be too high, and where evacuations would be prudent. --- Instead of future tripping, however, let's just look at what's on the table today, because tomorrow's troubles will be here soon enough. The good news is the stock market looks to head for a near flat open today and we'll take comfort where we can find it.
Pakistan Percolates The political intrigue and the future of president Musharraf continues to evolve. I hope Musharraf doesn't figure to galvanize his countrymen into support with incidents in Kashmir...
Neo-Nazi Arrests
Another Bridge Collapse Yeah, this is becoming a global meme alright: Overpass collapse in southern India killing at least 2.
Mexican Trucks Roll Coming to an interstate near you... Border? What border?
Hemline Hassle The headline "Is this woman too naked to fly?" caught my eye. (Pervert!) Hey! Maybe she was making the TSA search easier..
Reader Note I've been invited to be on "America in Danger" tonight.
News from
Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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Free Financial News updated daily except Sundays. UrbanSurvival.com is
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A
lot of folks tell me how difficult it is to string up woven fence, but it
occurred to me that it's not all that hard - if you have the right tool.
So, having the decently equipped machine shop now, I took about 45-minutes
and whipped up what I call "George's tractor bobbin to hold the 250-pound
rolls of 330 foot by 48 inch wire fencing. And I proud of my
contraction? Oh yeah. 