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What Happens Monday? Because the folks who subscribe to our premium service, www.peoplenomics.com , have been renewing at an impressive weight, we've now got the bandwidth to share more of the graphical content on this site. The main things I am looking at, besides those key support levels for my Aggregate Index and the Global Index (why no one else looks at markets this way is a matter of wonder), is what the markets will do Monday after the Friday action left us right on the precipice of a major decline if you think the July high of the Dow at just over 14,000 was significant.
The problem for investors of all stripes (and the PPT too, come to think of it) is that charts are not predictive in nature because they operate on how individuals perceive, and then how they weight their perception, of patterns in the market. An example of this is Elliott Wave Theory which usually have two (and sometimes more) wave counts going at the same time, with the investor to decide which holds sway at this moment or that.
My friend Robin Landry, who runs an investment company up in Oklahoma (after being a Wall Street regular for years) told me late this week that he's just watching and waiting. His strategy is two-fold. First, while his models say the next big move in the market will be UP, he's cautious about committing a lot of money until we see how the upper boundary battle (that's around 1521 on the S&P) works out. On the other hand, he's also not loading up on the short-side because he sees a major bull/bear showdown at 1364/1654 on the S&P before we'd see a "Katy bar the door' get short kind of event.
In my personal account, I've been doing a lot better with commodity options than stocks - simply because every time I'm right about a major move, the Fed opens the window and my grand designs on a downside move (*which I'd call a return to reality move) gets thwarted by the Fed which is more interested in keeping the market buoyant and pressing economic stability - their role as preserving the purchasing power of the dollar having been thrown in the back seat. No, make that, their roll in keeping the money sound has been stood up before a firing squad and shot. It's not there anymore.
Perhaps the reason that I've done better in my commodity account (*up about 74.931% since I opened it in July) is because I've observed what seem like three important things:
NONE OF THIS IS TRADING ADVICE: I REPORT WHAT I DO IN MY PERSONAL ACCOUNT. MY STYLE OF INVESTING INVOLVED THE POTENTIAL TO LOSE PART, OR ALL, OF YOUR INVESTMENT AND SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED WITHOUT A GREAT DEAL OF STUDY AND PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.
With any luck, Cliff and Igor who do the time-seeing predictive linguistics, will have the second part of the current 0508 report series out later today, but having some insights into it, I'd caution you not to spend money on things that don't matter. I know, "Since when does making money not matter?" you're thinking. Well, making a bunch of money, it seems, has a very good chance of being an exercise in simply collecting "paper." When hard times come, and you can smell it in the wind if you can keep somewhat detached from LameStreamMedia induced hypnosis, pieces of paper will be about the last thing you'll want.
Is there an alternative? You bet. A month or two of stored foods, walking shoes, mountain bikes, gun, ammo, tools, generator, bow and arrows, water filter...you can find the "survivalist" shopping lists all over the 'net. Even though the storm blowing in over the Northeast this weekend is not going to be a hurricane by the looks of it, there's still the issue of its path being unusual and all bets are off.
For some really sobering reasons to have the aforementioned supplies, ahead of almost anything else, you need only read the reports coming out of Nicaragua about the need for food, water, and medicine in the wake of hurricane Felix. Let me ask you this: If you were suddenly to find yourself thrust into events like this scale of natural disaster, would you want to hare "A month or two of stored foods, walking shoes, mountain bikes, gun, ammo, tools, generator, bow and arrows, water filter?" --- When Ma Nature decides to 'flick a few fleas' (human type), there's not much that can be done. People in the twin disasters of KatRita learned this in spades. As a jury in New Orleans, in a way, decided in finding nursing home operators not guilty on Friday, when a natural disaster is going on, there sometimes just is no solution. So vigilance and staying ahead of the pack pays off. --- For what it's worth, I'm not the only one who is worried about next week's action.
Oil Prices High and likely heading higher if I read things right...
He's Back I'm a little surprised at the most recent Osama bin Laden tape out Friday. Some of his comments went to ideas that have been posted here: taxes too high and do-nothing democorps. But then he goes opn to explain how there are two ways to end the war in Iraq.
Two side notes to the reports: First there's a report that bin Laden was at Tora Bora when it was attacked by US forces in late 2001. Then there's bin Laden's beard: Some reports say it looks like a false beard. --- And in the war itself, US troop levels are at an all-time high.
News Noise and Missing Kids As we read how "Grief stricken parents now suspects" in the disappearance of a baby girl in England, a conversation with chief time monk Cliff comes up: "We notice that there's a lot of missing kids/missing moms kind of stories in the data stream," he offered.
"Normal news noise, I should think?"
"Maybe, maybe not," he continued. Do you remember what was going on when there was that missing girl in Aruba? Let me ask you: What else was going on then?"
I had to admit that it just sort of blurred out. But, that sure got me to wondering whether these kind of events are purely accidentally percolating to the top of the editor's list (perhaps drive by ratings for 24-49 female demographics in TV commercial sales?). Or, might such stories mask other events. Like gold closing the week over $700, or the surprising strength in wheat this week.
Employment Crashing I don't know what the journalistic threshold is for a mass firing to become a 'bloodbath' (I checked the AP stylebook and didn't see one), but the pending discharge of up to 12,000 people by Countrywide Mortgage sure sounds like it might qualify. --- IndyMac is looking at cutting 1,000.
Eco-Warrior's Jet Drudge Report has a picture worth looking at.
Net Censoring It occurs to me while one internet provider has turned off some customers for downloading too much content, that next might come paid or we'll turn off your content controls. --- The industry is buying its way out of net neutrality. The JustUs Department is siding with industry - a fine example of corpgov about to screw just regular folks - for the umpteenth time...
Around Here Goat Fence work on tap today. I spotted some registered Boer goats for sale on Craigslist and at $100 per animal, it's a deal, so the neighbors are hauling their stock trailer out to pick 'em up this morning. That will be our first goat acquisition - and from there, who knows how large the herd will get. Apparently two does are with kid, and a third may be - that should become obvious in time. A couple of pails of wheat, a few more of rice, a healthy flock of free-ranging chickens and the neighbors recipes for goat cheese and we get one more step closer to self-sufficiency.
Peoplenomics: Rethinking Labor We don't go to work for nothing - there has to be some cheese in the trap, or we wouldn't keep going back to work day, after day, after day. Gear up with your 'skeptical helmet' it-s time for the Peoplenomics annual state of labor review. This is the stuff that escapes daily notice by most folks, amidst the drone of mass merchandising, selling you junk you don't need to live this week's version of the American Dream, because the assumptions are not questioned, and thus, the Big Trends are safely hidden in plain sight. Maybe laboring for a living at what you do is really worth more this year than last. But then again... Let's look behind the curtain, and see what we shall see, shall we?
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Cheap is Good Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Friday September 7, 2007 Semi-Yawner: Jobs Report I explained to you yesterday why the jobs number would come in (no surprise) unchanged. I mean besides the usual reliance on the presumed created jobs listed in the CES Birth/Death model, which argues that undocumented job creation added 120,000 jobs to the economy just in the last month. (wink, wink) The real trick shot is that although lots of people are being laid off in the housing and mortgage businesses, most of them won't hit the reports until next month (if they do then, ha!) because of the waiting period before folks pick up unemployment compensation and it's only those folks who count as unemployed. If you're out of a job and out of benefits, you're presumed to have found a job or you just plain aren't in the workforce.
I'm looking for a 100 point (or greater) drop at the open this morning because of headlines like "Employers cut jobs in August" which is sure to rattle a few folks. On th other hand, care to bet me the Fed won't pop in with another $50-billion in repos today to prop things up?
So, while lots of other economists were saying "no change" - guess what the numbers came out as today? Tah dah:
The Table 12, Category U-6 (which I have subtitled: the engineers flipping burgers and IT outsourcing victims mowing lawns) report says things got a tad worse at 8.4% for the month. Ain't statistics grand? Not so grand - and part of a key worrying trend: Manufacturing was down another 46,000 jobs and construction was down 22,000. --- Great article: Alf Field's article over at 321gold.com this morning: "Gear today, Gone tomorrow". Must read. Simple, important stuff.
Over $700 Again: Guess What Glitters If you're a long-time reader of this site, you've no doubt heard opine that the kinds of things that make sense to invest in for the really long term are a) stored food, b) a few reliable guns and ammunition, paid up producing farm land, and (of course) gold. While it has been up and down a bit over the past year, it is still doing just fine and today we're watching it press toward the $700 level on the spot market. Gold hitting $700 is a non-event, as it's an indicator of inflation and although some say that demand from India, I'm convinced a major reason is all the repos that the Fed has been issuing. Thursday's Fed operations look like this:
Now, the way I have it figured, Bart over at www.nowandfutures.com is dead-to-nuts on when he talks about the M-3 inflation rate being up OVER 14% at the moment, almost all digidollars and all of which is because I'm certain the Fed has their own version of my "Valley of Death for the Market" chart that shows how the period after a market peak can be disastrous:
So what we have is "Bernanke in a box." If the Fed simply holds, the market is going to tank because everyone seems to be pricing a quarter point decline into their figuring. BUT if they Fed lowers the rates, that will likely chill demand for US consumer debt (via all those questionable structured tranches) and the economic news is anything but clear, in any regard. --- When an economic system is under considerable strain, like ours is about now, anything that moves is worthy of inspection. Although initial reports are that the death of Republican Representative Paul Gillmor of Ohio as 'natural causes', there's bound to be speculation around the web that there's more to it than has been reported so far. Gillmor was, after all, the "ranking Republican on the Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcommittee of the Financial Services Committee. He also served on the Energy and Commerce Committee, and chaired its Environment and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee until the Republicans lost control of Congress following the 2006 elections. In 2006, Gillmor served as a member of a bipartisan reform task force on ethics and congressional mailing practices. He was a member of the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership." --- Alan ("Get you're cheap ARM's!) Greenspan says the current market conditions are reminiscent of 1987 and 1998. Gee, yah think? --- Good story in the Wall Street Journal this morning about "How market turmoil waylaid the 'quants" - the quantitative folks who are almost complete reductionists. Can you put a number to panic or fear? -- Getting back to our other "investments" (food, ammunition, etc) I notice that the ammunition shortage meme continues to build and is showing up in lots of places.
Was Germany Our Foiled Terror Plot? I've made a note to go read the German media for details of the continuing hunt for suspects in the recently foiled plan to bomb American military facilities in Germany. German authorities are hot on the trail of more suspects in what seems to have been a bomb-making cell. But, now here's where it gets interesting. The predictive linguistics folks at www.halfpasthuman.com detailed a foiled terrorist attack in their ALTA 0308 data run which was sent out to subscribers to the service on August 4th. Here (with exclusive permission) is what was foretold:
Cliff and Igor seem pretty convinced that the German bust of the would-be bombers and their bomb factory, how it was discovered, and the surveillance details, fit the descriptive linguistics close enough. They also said the language was hot, and a small change in values, so that's what it is. Still, seems that the discovery by construction workers on a break part was right. But I'll need to go surfing German press reports to get a clearer handle on this. If you're in Germany and have seen anything going to this "discovered by construction workers" and the surveillance please let me know. Some aspects, such as the reference to surveillance from afar, sure seem to fit. Again, about a 35-day jump on events, as we continue evaluating the event-predictive technology.
Bin Laden Tape to Come? There's a report out of the UK that "Website claims Bin Laden will release message to mark 9/11." Wonder how much manpower the alphabet agencies have trying to pick up a scent on where the tape will come from?
NC's NAU License Headlined: "Premeditated Merger, North American Union Driver's License created" and rolled out in North Carolina. And, today, don't forget that Mexican trucks are hitting U.S. pavement in droves. No doubt, there will be some protests and such, but this is a big push by the administrative/Second Government folks that pull the strings without Congress' approval. It's all a 'done deal.'
Martial Law Dry Run You are no doubt marketing October 15-20 on your calendar? That's when the US Northern Command is holding an exercise called Vigilant Shield. Lots of sites are talking about this as a dry run for the real thing....
Papers Please! It's not like the concern about being forced to produce "papers" is a non-issue. Take, for example, the case of the teenager in Ohio who was arrested by police for not giving authorities his driver's license as proof of ID when they were questioning him about declining to show his store receipt to a loss prevent agent at a Circuit City store. No, the teen had not committed any crime - except not show his receipt to a loss preventer - until, that is, he called the police when the store's staff tried to keep the family car from leaving the shopping center parking lot, as I read the story. Michael Righi was not driving a car, so why should he have to produce a drivers license, right? Wrong. At least wrong in Ohio, it seems. Quite an adventure and his point about showing receipts when leaving a store is like a presumption of guilt, isn't lost on us either. But being thrown in the klink after telling his name and address, but not backing it up with paperwork? Where's the Constitution?
M.E. Tensions Rising Depending on who's report you read, Israeli aircraft which crossed into Syrian airspace were fired on this week when they dropped what was likely either spent ammo or fuel pods and broke the sound barrier over Syria.
Thursday September 6, 2007 Nuke Speculation I was Steve Quayle's radio show as a guest last night - and we talked about the two really big news stories of the day - the five (now reported as six) nukes that went momentarily 'missing' and what's ahead for the economy/stock market. On this last, I put up my "Overhanging the Valley of Death" chart update (click here to scroll down to it).
We started the show by talking about the nukes on the B-52 - and ran through several possible scenarios. One was that this was just a 'human accident' but we both quickly dismissed that as the troops guarding nukes are incredibly well trained.
Then we discussed whether this might be posturing/messaging something to the Russians, who of late seem to be flying their bombers again and making a big deal out of their Topol M missile upgrade program. However, after considering where the plane was flown, we decided that didn't make sense either.
On the other hand, the big story in Europe at press time for us is UK and Norwegian jets scrambling to tail eight Russian bombers. No, they didn't intrude into UK airspace...just out for a little power projecting it seems.
What about the idea that these nukes - which were carrying W80 warheads with a reported yield of 5-150 kilotons (dial a bomb, so to speak) were being positioned for an attack on Iran? Maybe - and you'll recall that in Gulf War One (Bush War One), the B-52's were out of Barksdale. So maybe.
Iran is apparently planning to buy new commercial airlines from Russia - not Boeing or Airbus. So, if the US were to attack Iran, the kind of weapons on the B-52 last week would be one of the tools in the inventory which might be used - once you get past the HUGE PR PROBLEM of first-use of nukes. --- What really amazed me was that the Air Force announced a stand-down for September 14th so forces can be retrained, remotivated, and so forth. Since when do we announce stand-downs and training. Except like maybe before 9/11 if you recall...
And email from a reader offers this bit of recall, laced with no small amount of worry:
It actually becomes a thoroughly confusing stew: Rumors that European banks may sue US banks for fraud over passing off liar's paper as triple A rated bonds - and against that background, the US position as global super power looks a little shaky. So you can't consider the news today on an individual story basis although that's how LameStreamMedia spreads it out. There's a context - a weave if you will - that holds all the pieces in a sort of evolving design pattern. Like ants in an ant farm. Yeah, the stock market overhanging the "valley of death" on the chart, nukes being flown about while the paperwork seems to have been messed up, and the futures turning down again this morning, gold going up - all part of the same cloth. Oh, and did I mention most of the wheat complex was up limit for a second day in a row yesterday?
You Are What You Eat. Especially if what you eat has a lot of food additives. Hey! I want to be an FDA decider so I can do a little 'beholding to industry/ benefit of the doubt' stuff and go on to a fat cat corporate life after, OK? --- A friend/reader/subscriber who's a medical type asked an interesting question: If America suddenly shifted from being meat eaters to vegetarians en masse, would there be enough food to go around? My answer: You bet! Remember it takes something like five measure of grain to make one measure of meat - so if everyone quit eating meat, there'd be way more grain available for food, although some (corn in particular) isn't fit for direct human consumption. But you go first. I'm still a 24 kt BBQ'er.
Plenty of Oil The president of OPEC says there is no shortage of oil. This as oil continues around $75 a barrel. You were expecting him to say what? Peak oil is real? We're at max capacity right now so get ready for a slide? Dream on. While he says no shortage of oil, I'll tell you what there is a shortage of: candor.
Terra Intrudes Straight line winds causing more problems in the Wasatch Front region of the country. In the early morning fog, I half remembering hearing about a roof being blown off a home by the straight line winds out in West Texas, soo...but wasn't fully conscious yet so no citation. --- Folks in the Northeast are buzzing about the potential for a tropical storm to grow and hit the Big Apple. -- Then there's the typhoon sneaking up on Tokyo. --- Then we have the folks in Tyler Texas, up the road from us, who are now only 4-10th's of an inch, or so, from 50 inches of rain for the year - if they hit 65, this would make our part of Texas tropical... The floods in North/Central and East Texas have returned this week. Lawns are so green that I may put in two or three holes of pitch & put in the front yard (which is about 2 acres). |
