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"Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
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Two HUGE Questions This morning's report will focus on the two biggest issues facing American's right now. The first being the changing face of 'terra intrudes' which is the authorized free-to-the-public extract of proprietary linguistics work done by www.halfpasthuman.com and the second is what's ahead for the markets next week.
Quake #1 Although init8ially it didn't seem as though the earthquake this week in Peru would qualify as the first in the sequence of three major quakes we've been expecting in this timeframe, there are two reasons - and strong ones at that - which suggest that this may be the first in the three quake series. The first is that the media imagery coming out matches much of the linguistics pretty well, including the large numbers of dead, which could pass the 500 mark this weekend. The horror of people living on the road, dispersing in all directions, stepping over dead all seems to have the same kind of archetype 'flavor' that were expected to accompany quake #1 in the series. Prisoners escaping from jails/prisons and that sort of thing is ugly enough to make us now suspect it's a fit.
There's also one other item that makes it look like this could be Q1: The eruption of Pavlof Volcano. The reason is that temporally, there's supposed to be a volcano going off which now seems to fit, although the really explosive kind of eruption (that would disrupt air travel and such) may not happen. Nevertheless, the threat of disruption is widely reported, and as we have seen many times before, when viewing the future through advanced linguistics, it's often easy to catch the concern rather than the actual fact.
Long-time readers, just to give an example of this read-error between fact and expression may remember the imagery about the Hawaii earthquake and the references to 9.3 when the actual quake was only a 6.2. However, within a week or two of that event, there was a panic on the beaches of Hawaii as a rumor of a pending quake made headlines and hundreds called local police departments - and there was some press about that at the time. This peering into the future using language shift on the internet (explained in some detail here) is not in any college textbooks because the kind of work being done by www.halfpasthuman.com is a marriage of huge database techniques, a proprietary way of looking at emotional and carry values of words including constantly evolving slang, and computer modeling in 3D graphics. T'ain't just your Commodore 64 and a simple program. It's a hollowed out custom kernel of a Microsoft OS, 200+ executables, and a spider/agent set that is way more complex than the spiders that index web sites.
And - we only present the information for 'entertainment value' because even when we get the linguistics dead-on (click here for an example from 2003).
All that on the table, there's the small problem of what happens then in late November to mid December if the Three Big Quakes come now rather than later? Well, that means the size of the December event will be that much bigger. One of the things I'm watching is to see if the earth will follow the sun and perhaps experience a magnetic (or physical full-up) pole shift. You may recall that the Sun has already experienced it's 'pole flip' as NASA reported in 2001.
If we get something really large like a magnetic pole shift, or the actual Charles Hapgood nightmare scenario, it would only make sense that the high iron content material of the earth's mantel/surface would be doing some straining, and that might cause earthquakes. Something which deserves more study in the literature is the question "If the magnetic field is measurable deteriorating now, what originally 'set it' and has it flipped before? Seems likely, but whether a resetting has ever happened - and more importantly, what caused it - is a grand field for study. Never enough time around here, though. The point to remember is Albert Einstein's assessment that Hapgood's theory made sense to him. The crust of the earth slipping like an orange peel around what's on the inside is not to be taken lightly.
Back in the International Geophysical year ('58 I thought it was) there was a lot of talk about the earth being pear-shaped slightly. However, ever since the early 1970's, the literature seems to point toward the 'pear shape' are being less pronounced than thought. When you think about it, that could be a concern: Hapgood's imagery of the 'orange peel' slipping around a nearly perfect sphere is easy to visualize - just as the resistance to sliding around a more pear-shaped globe is easy to comprehend.
However, there are lots of other tracks, too. For example, the coming alignment of the moon and Mars on the 27th of this month and the eclipse coming up: There's a total lunar eclipse on August 28th, and then next summer we have a total solar eclipse coming. When planets line up, so do the gravitational forces, and the quake in Peru this week may have been just a foretaste of more tectonic stresses as external fields influence that ground you're standing on.
Don't mean to ramble here, but this is important stuff - more important than the pursuit of money - which lately means the pursuit of paper and the resulting slavery thereto. As reported yesterday, the government has plans to "help" when a natural disaster or whatever cause for martial law shows up, and as a strong Constitutionalist, I'd just as soon retain my freedom while the corpgov boyz and girlz meet up in Canada this weekend to merge away what little remains of our sovereignty and Rights as the globalists reach their zenith. Or, did that happen back in July with the all-time-peak of the Dow? Our hats off to the Canadian Labor Congress which calls the SPP meetings in Canada what they really are - and its "Not about Working Families"
Where Goes the Market Readers are checking in from all over on the market action on Friday. I told you that a 'perfect replay' of 1929 would have the market close yesterday up 70-points. But, as Peoplenomics.com subscribers will see in the tracking chart this weekend, the current market is presently right between 1929 and 1987 which means it could go either way. Or, a new way never before seen.
If the markets repeat the 1987 track, we will bounce all the way up to 13,581 (and I still think 1521 on the S&P, before breaking to 8,900 on the Dow around September 11th. Or, another way to look at it would be for the market to 'go flat here, or drop to 11,943, and then follow the 1929 track, which would begin with a peak around 12,954 on August 28th and would then drop to about 7,300 by September 26. Of course, that's assuming that the market doesn't go off and do something completely different....which is the most likely outcome.. --- By the way, this weekend's Peoplenomics report will go into a really interesting way to analyze option-chains to see what kind of levels the markets are predicting - been working on the charts of this all week in my spare time. Both minutes, in fact. --- So one reader took me to task over the web bot's call for panic August 13-16:
The answer is that the panic predicted linguistically did show up. And from the high on the 13th to the low on the 16th, we had a 984 point drop. Close enough to 'panic' for me.
Happy-talk this week all you want, the fact is the Dow was down for the week some 160 points and the markets are telling us much much lower lows are ahead. So even if we bounce up next week, I've holding September puts on the S&P.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE - SHORT TERM OPTIONS INVOLVE THE MOST EXTREME
RISK OF 100% CAPITAL LOSS YOU CAN FIND (besides owning a racing car or
racing sailboat, or having as 125 LTV loan when housing prices collapse).
DON'T DO IT UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED TO KISS OFF YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY.
IT ALSO HELPS TO HAVE YOUR OWN VIEW OF HOW THE MARKET WILL BEHAVE IN
THE FUTURE. SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Bank Runs A couple of Peoplenomics subscribers wrote in to say "Thanks" for the heads up last week on being ready for bank runs. As I count them, the first came yesterday with the Californians rushing to pull money out of Countrywide Bank. Don't forget our forecast: If the contagion spreads (and I think it will) the banking holidays will happen almost "out of the blue" and that's what all the "ex ante" (before the occurrence of a bank run) and "post ante" (after the occurrence of a bank run) in the academic papers from the Fed staff I cited in the report are all about, as I read it.
And, regular folks are having a hard time raising cash. One reader offers this:
Yeah, that's what happens when reckless government/central bankster (corpgov) fraud puffs up the economy through excessive consumer borrowing is successful...for a short while. This is the other end of the stick now. And the pain is just starting in the Phoenix area where "First Magnus halts loans" is one of the headlines this week in the Arizona Daily Star, quoted here.
Garbage In, Garbage Out I notice the administration and the Fedsters are not hyping their "high levels of home ownership in history" crap that was so easily mouthed a few years back. Gee, I wonder why? But, do we get an apology? Nope, just the next generation of power-hungry politicos trying to "rule us" in this frantic run-up to 2008's elections.
The truth of the global economic picture is slowly leaking out. Yesterday, for example, I told you that the combination of internal inflation in newly emergent countries like India and Ukraine, when coupled with the current 'near death experience of the US dollar' has reversed the reasons for outsourcing. Corporate folks have an interesting way of playing follow the leader, much as cattle do on their way into the slaughterhouse.
Today, in our "secrets revealed" pile, I notice that in Britain, the "Unemployment rate is six times higher than official figures" and it's no different from the policy here in the USA when people are assumed to have found work when their benefits run out because those people aren't counted. It's a terrible and disconcerting blend of statistical fraud and human misery as you'll ever find. yet the LameStreamMedia don't ask the hard questions, perhaps because they're not written on the press releases that spoon-feed most so-called journalists. Toss out the search "unemployment" on the Google news search engine once in a while and see what you get.
A British reader says "Prime time radio today in the UK, there was a report on the possible spreading of the contagion into pension funds". LameStream may wake up to this eventually here in the US, too.
Dean The latest tracking map for hurricane Dean looks like this as of Saturday morning:
Cold War Turned Up In what looks like a modulation of East-West tensions, the Russians are making long-range bomber flights now. Even though the New War meme is not supposed to appear until later in the fall, this could be some of the groundwork that leads up to it. --- Meantime, now that the US has labeled the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a terror threat, the name calling has ratcheted up a bit with the group threatens to 'punch' the US in return. Whatever that means.
Around the Ranch It was hot this week, so not too much got done until Friday...busy on client projects in the comfort of the air conditioned office. On Friday, a burst of activity resulted in some treated fence posts being put in with help from the neighbors (who did most of the work, if the truth be told), mowing the yard with my new Husqvarna 23 HP, 48" cut riding mower, then opening up a fence on the west side of the chicken moat (a chicken run around the vegetable garden) so I can get working on a new/larger chicken coop.
The chickens have taken to laying 'yard eggs' in the tall grass along the fence line, so that has to come out. In this part of Texas, chickens laying yard eggs not only attracts vermin/snakes/and what have you, but sticking your hand into a tall patch of grass is a potentially fatal dumb thing to do. Grass goes, and the chickens will have to deal with laying inside.
That leaves just 994 open items on the punch list before we have guests in October....and 900 feet of goat wire to hang so the goats can come over from the neighbor's place.
Peoplenomics: Interventions: Illegal Price Fixing? Before we get into this week's overview of developments in global finance, let me first ask you a simple question: At what point does the open conspiracy of Central Banks to intervene in otherwise free markets by pumping more than a third of a trillion dollars begin to meet the definition of "price fixing"? I found myself Sunday morning asking "At what point can victims of subprime loans, and those of us who have been short the market, claim damages as a class and go for a class-action lawsuit to set things straight?" A quick call to my attorney got a longer version of "Why would anyone think the casino isn't rigged?" That may be, and this huge printing-press spree will ultimately cause the very inflation the Fed has been talking about (and it will no doubt buoy gold prices, too), but I'd argue that dispossessed homeowners and those who short financial markets for sound fundamental reasons are demonstrably victims of price fixing. The subprime promotion by the Fed might never have occurred if speculators didn't have the fat cats in the back room urging them forward while the printing presses were readied for the bailout. Anyone up for a little pro bono work?
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Friday August 17, 2007 1929 Redux: Fed Caving In Oh boy, this is going more like 1929 than I could ever have imaged.
This seems to have pulled the market back from the brink of immediate death (one index rallied 20-points in 2-minutes on the news) but that begs the question of so much for saving today, what about Monday? This might quell some of the whining in the fixed-income markets, but we have a whole global melt-down trying to get started. --- This means to me that the banging down of gold yesterday was done by insiders or Fed proxies in anticipation of this morning because gold and silver are both rebounding on the news. Coincidence? yeah, sure, right... --- In yesterday's column, I told you to expect the Dow to finish down about 30-points. I was off by 14.3 points - but that's a closer guess than most in these kinds of market conditions, but this morning's forecast/guesstimate may be a little more difficult.
The difficulty is that a close tracking with 1929 (which has an 0.81 correlation - out of a perfect 1.0) would point to one set of outcomes, including a Monday 500+ point nosebleed, while the 1987 track would point to a 99 point drop today and a small 19 point bounce on Monday:
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