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| | Site Disclaimer| Publisher's Note | Elliott Wave | Technorati Profile | Next Week's Rally? Back in the 1970's when I was learning to fly, my flight instructor, Herb Johnson, used to command me "Stay ahead of the airplane!" The occasion was a summer morning during Seafair Week, which would have put in in late July, or the first part of August, as we'd been doing a little sight seeing over Lake Washington.
A little more specifically, what had prompted Herb's command was that as a pilot in training at that point, and used to the approach in a Cessna 150, I had managed to bounce a Cessna 172 a good 50 feet into the air on landing (on the shorter of Boeing Field's two runways, 31-Right) and I was entering pilot's "No man's land" - which is where you run out of airspeed, altitude and ideas all at once. That, by the way is a definition of a crash in hanger-talk.
"Nose down, power in, carb heat off, Watch your airspeed, stay ahead of the airplane," Herb calmly reminded, and then announced to the Boeing tower that "We'll be doing a touch-n-go this time..." Then, turning to me "Next time, watch your airspeed and get it down more...a 172 which is light will float for a long time before touching down..." Lesson learned.
"Interesting story, but how does that related to getting ahead of the game financially?" you're asking. My point is simply this: while the headlines are bemoaning/bespeaking that we have just witness the "Dow, S&P Have Worst Week in 5 Years", for an investor with a little experience, this has been a great 'set-up week' if the market bounces next week. To win, you have to take positions before the markets move - stay ahead of where you think they will go next, and then lay down in front of the likely direction with a series of potential money-makers and then cross your fingers.
I'll be outlining the details for Peoplenomics subscribers in tomorrow's report, but perma-bear Ure is presently long gold and silver (commodity options) and a 10 puts on a decent NYSE stock that seemed to show some relative strength in the Friday downdraft. Like the old saying goes, "Talks' cheap - takes money to buyer whiskey."
Universe Screaming There are times, when we don't have the market opening and client pressures, when it's time to sit back and try to make sense of things the Universe is presenting us in the way of clues as to what is coming along next. Here's a series of "coincidences that maybe aren't coincidences.
Case #1: There's a new disaster movie in England called "Flood" in which the river Thames breaks its banks. You talk about timing on this. here we are in what may be the worst flooding in 200-years and out comes this movie that's been in the works. --- Case #2: "We aren't from around here." A friend of mine called this morning to advise that there is a pretty good article which may explain why the Mayan Calendar ends in 2012: The Sun may not originally be from the Milky Way, but we're being swept into it, or so it seems. And in the process the Pleiades, which used to clock the Mayan calendar, will stop working. Longish article, but I'm told lots of good links in it and worth a read. --- Case #3: The UFO sighting in England this week (inter-dimensional flood sight seers?) promoted a reader to offer this:
The answer to the last question is "Maybe" and the question which I hope a few UK readers can answer is "Was the "arrow" proposed by this reader pointing in any direction in particular, like at Greenland's glaciers, or the spot in the mid Atlantic where there has been so much geol;ogic movement lately? --- Case #4: And, is the supposed bottomless lake in Russia really bottomless? --- An interesting assortment of things to ponder.
News Crash Four people are dead in the crash of two news-chasing helicopters in Phoenix.
Red Paint ...was busily being applied to the walls of a key mosque in Pakistan by Islamists who occupied the place Friday. This continues to be the build-up to potential government change in September there which the predictive linguistics mentioned a while back. Seems to be tracking, huh?
Gorby Blames US Former Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev is blaming the "growing global disarray" on the US.
Yard signs Ordered I ordered a couple of Ron Paul yard signs yesterday. Sadly, I couldn't find the yard sign I really wanted, although it's available as a bumper sticker from one of the Paul stores. It simply says "Reinstate the Constitution". Amen. --- Other than Ron Paul, seems most of the republicans don't seem to "get" the new media, like YourTube, says one report. The democrats meantime are making a public show of things. Still, I hold to the theory that the race is on so early this time around to keep us all from focusing on events yet to reveal themselves.
Keeps on Running Dick Cheney gets a new battery this weekend for his pacemaker. Anyone know if it's a copper top or keeps on running brand?
Farmerly Notes All that rain here in Texas has resulted in an unusual number of frogs jumping around the property this week. Little suckers are everywhere. 1-2 1/2" tree frogs, looks like.
Tom, Tom, the Cat Outside, has taken a real liking to them. (skip this next if you get queasy easy) Problem is, they give him really bad stomach aches and subsequently he barfs, and then wants more food and goes after more frogs. If you have any ideas how on to make the cats stop acting like the ranch isn't a 30-acre vomitorium, please send them along. His 'new routine" of chase, skarf, barf, beg, is getting a little old.
Peoplenomics: Hooked On Options Like a damn fool, I am wading back into options again as this week I will roll out something I call my "IMP Experiment". IMP stands for Instant Millionaire Program and I'm going to report to you every week on how it goes as I take $1,000 and try to turn it into $1,000,000 in as short a time as possible, without doing anything illegal or unethical, or immoral. Have to admit though, that those last categories may offer a better short-term - success rate. Above all, this is AN EXPERIMENT and is it NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY OR COMMODITY BECAUSE THIS IS THE ULTIMATE HIGH RISK ADVENTURE. I'M JUST AN ECONOMICS WRITER WHO IS GOING TO WRITE ABOUT MY OWN ACCOUNT AND THE ACTUAL MOVES I MAKE IN THE VARIOUS MARKETS. If you decide to try something like this yourself, please seek professional advice. That ain't me. This is strictly educational. With that disclaimer, gentlemen, start your TradeStations... More for Subscribers Subscription Information
"No Incumbents in 2008" Bumper Sticker To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent there - having never held that job before, got it?
Spread the Good Word I'd really appreciate it if you would tell all your friends that you read UrbanSurvival or Independence Journal, or even our Peoplenomics newsletter. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to shake them from their sleep.
Cheap, Cheaper, Cheapest Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
July 27, 2007 Bottom Fishing Day? While headlines abounded early that "Gold firms after yesterday's slide on fears sell-off was overdone" look a little premature to me, if some of the online quotes (above) are correct (no reason to suspect they're anything but accurate). I have to share an email that didn't sound none too happy with me for laying out my investment moves in advance, and offering me advice on trading...
Chill, bro. To put this concerned reader's mind at rest, yes, I cleared my August 675 put positions yesterday with a nice profit. Very nice profit. This morning I intend to re-enter on the long side for either October or December gold and I will post the details this weekend for subscribers to Peoplenomics. Cash talks, and what walks? Another reader, however, offered this, which I think more than offsets the view offered by the first email above:
You're welcome. So my thinking today AND THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE -- DO NOT TRADE ON ANYTHING I WRITE ABOUT! READ THE DISCLAIMER! is this:
This last, however, may depend on how the tape looks later this morning. I chatted with my friend Robin Landry [ 405-275-6162 ] yesterday and his thinking seems to be that the market should go back up and test the 1,521 level on the S&P and close a bunch of gaps. Over the years, Robin has developed what sounds like a reasonable trading model, and he sees 1,521 as key. If we rally back to 1,521 (plus or minus a few points) and just sit there without breaking out powerfully to the upside, then this could be the start of the Big One to the downside. On the other hand, a power rally over 1,521 could mean the beginning of the best short squeeze in history - which is why picking up a few just-out-of-the-money calls in the stock account might be prudent.
IF I get into some bottom fishing calls on the beaten down players, and IF we get up to 1,521, and IF we stall there, I'd be willing to flip short. On the other hand, IF a short squeeze develops and we head skyward from 1,521, the calls could go handsomely profitable. Time will tell.
Stock futures seem down a bit this morning - oh boy, short term calls anyone, or do we wait for Monday? Pondering... . Peak Oil OK, some of the best brains in the business tell me Peak Oil = Peak Consumption = Peak Debt or minor variations of this. And although some readers don't want Peak Oil/Consumption/Consumer debt to be real, the headlines seem to support the notion. First, there's price. Oil continues to trade over $75 today. Then we have some new research out that says renewable energy may not be so green, after all.
While there are some folks who read the theory and response to abiotic oil, and immediately jump to a NWO conspiracy mindset, the science seems to suggest otherwise. Saudi oil output is DOWN 8% in 2006. And this is at a time when China's use of energy is exploding.
Opinions are you-know-what's - but that's not how a pragmatic investor thinks. A pragmatist never fights the tape. Tape for now acts like Peak Oil is real...conspiracy theories aside, read my lips here: DON'T FIGHT THE TAPE!!
Pennsylvania Immigration Law Foiled A federal judge as voided a Pennsylvania town's law that would bar illegals from working or renting in the city of Hazelton. Sounds reasonable to me, but the judge says the law "interferes with federal law" and therefore is no good. City plans to fight this to the US Supreme Court. And with good reason, IMHO [in my humble opinion if you're not a texter...] --- The real issue is the 'second government' of the country has decided at the administration/above review/not controlled by the voters level to not enforce the laws properly enacted by Congress and they don't like cities points this out...
City Rights, II
Cops - Tax Collectors In Virginia, all kinds of traffic penalties have gone through the roof. A thousand dollar plus fine for using the wrong turn signal or driving too fast for conditions - a subjective call at best. No offense to my elders, but don'tcha think "too fast" for conditions would be a little different for a 58 year old Skip barber graduate versus a 90-year old?
Virginia is for lovers, alright. Lovers of government run amuck.
Pakistan Deteriorates We continue watching for a change of government in Pakistan this fall, and the latest headlines don't give any reason to change that outlook. -- US is upset with the Saudis handling of the Iraq war.
Cold War II Vlad Putin of Russia continues to block independence for Kosovo.
Real ID, Real Soon From the Seattle area, this telling email from a reader:
Hell, I'm so old I remember when a social security number couldn't be used for anything but employment and pay into my retirement fund - and politicians were all promising that would be all it would ever be - not a national ID card. WTF? How stoopid do they think We the People are?
Thursday July 26, 2007 Top In, Decline Pending? Although I am very much a long-term gold believer (and since we bought some physical at $280 back in 2001), there are times when being a pragmatic market-watcher is a good thing. As the price of gold dropped down toward $670 on the spot market, my $675 puts are looking pretty good and like they may drop a couple of bucks to the bottom line, although that bet's still on the table and could go wrong between now and tomorrow.
A note from a reader is worth sharing:
This reader's concern about the price of oil is spot on - and, except for my short venture onto the short side, I expect to buy more call options (the kind of option that bets that gold will go up, puts are the bets it will go down) as soon as I click out of the current trade. If it clears...time's running out.
Planning ahead, a very good player sends this to mull:
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